Latest Headlines on OCRegister.com
[x] Close
Lansner on Real Estate ~ The latest news about the housing market from Orange County Register columnist Jon Lansner.

Archive for the 'numbers' Tag

« Previous Entries

O.C. has 3rd worst U.S. home affordability

November 23rd, 2009, 12:01 am by Jon Lansner
Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Orange County housing affordability was 3rd worst in the nation in the third quarter, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo “Housing Opportunity Index.”

HOI showed that 37.6% of all new and existing Orange County homes sold in the third quarter of 2009 were affordable to families earning the local median income of $86,100. How’d that rank?

  • That’s the second consecutive drop in local affordability after three years on the upswing.
  • 3rd worst among the major markets followed.
  • Prime reason for falling local affordability? Rising prices! By the HOI math, local prices were up 5% in the quarter and 3% higher that a year ago.
  • And local incomes, by the way, haven’t budged in six months!
  • Worst than us? New York and San Francisco.
  • Most affordable? Indianapolis, for the 17 consecutive quarter.

Nationally? HOI showed 70.1% new and existing homes sold in Q3 were affordable to families earning national median income of $64,000 vs. near-record 72.3 percent in q2.

FYI: HOI measures percentage of homes sold in an area that are affordable to families earning that area’s median income during a quarter using data from, among others, First American Real Estate Solutions and Federal Housing Finance Board.

Real estate outlooks:

Posted in: Affordability • Home prices • • | 2 Comments »

Property tax fights up 8% this year

November 20th, 2009, 1:53 pm by Jeff Collins
taxappeals-2-9-15-09

Leonard Ortiz/The Register

About 17,520 Orange County property owners have signed up this year to fight the county’s assessment of their real estate’s value in an effort to lower their property taxes.

That compares to 16,231 as of Nov. 19 last year, said Pat Martinez, head of the county’s assessment appeals division for the county Clerk of the Board of Supervisor’s Office.

The increased pace of tax appeals likely reflects the dismal state of home prices at the start of the year. This year’s tax assessments are based on property values on or around January, when local home values apparently hit bottom.

taxappeals-3-9-15-09

Leonard Ortiz/The Register

The median home price dropped to $370,000 in January, according to MDA DataQuick. That compares to a median home price of $520,000 in January 2008, the prior year’s “tax lien” date.

Last month, the median was $436,500, up 18% since prices began their upwards stair-step trend in February.

Property owners are entitled to a lower assessment when the market value of their property falls below the taxable value.

The Orange County Assessor’s Office already lowered tax assessments on more than 200,000 of the county’s 897,000 parcels of land. Those who believe their assessments weren’t lowered enough are entitled to appeal their assessment, upon which property taxes are based.

Orange County Clerk of thee Board Darlene Bloom projected earlier this year that tax appeals would be 85% higher, but that increase failed to materialize.

Previous property tax news …

Posted in: Real estate taxes • • • | 2 Comments »

O.C. home price seen rising 10.9% in year

November 20th, 2009, 12:02 am by Jon Lansner
September sales: Click for details!
$532,000

$532,000

$613,000

$613,000

$1,450,000

$1,450,000

First American CoreLogic’s computers say …

  • Orange County homes prices, in the year ending September 2010, will appreciate 10.94%. Last month, First American projected a 9.53% annual again for year ending August 2010.
  • Orange County homes prices — including distressed sales — declined 6.74% in the year ended in September vs. 7.92% rate of annual decline in August.
  • Excluding distressed transactions, Orange County homes prices year-over-year fell 6.14% in September vs. August’s -7.07%.
  • California prices? Down 12.16% annually (with distressed); down 6.95% (without.) Forecast? Up 9.36% in a year with distressed included; +8.24% without.
  • National home prices — including distressed sales — declined by -9.8% annual rate in September. (Excluding distressed sales, national year-over-year prices declined by 6%.)
  • In year ending September 2010, forecast appreciation for national home prices — excluding distressed — is 1.1%.
  • When distressed sales were included Nevada (-25.5%) was the nation’s worst for year ended September!

Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic: “While the improvement in the year-over-year decline is encouraging, high foreclosure rates and increasing distressed sales are likely to continue to hold prices down.”

Recent outlooks:

Posted in: Outlooks • • • | 168 Comments »

Owners too upbeat on home values. And you?

November 19th, 2009, 12:00 pm by Marilyn Kalfus, real estate reporter

Homeowners in the West are the least realistic in the U.S. about their own home’s values, with 28% believing they went up in the past year, Zillow’s quarterly Homeowner Confidence Survey shows. In reality, just 17% of homes in the region  increased in value.

Perceptions vs. reality U.S. No. E. Mid W. South West
Home value decreased 49% 51% 52% 45% 53%
Home value same 26% 29% 25% 28% 19%
Home value increased 25% 20% 23% 27% 28%
%homes decreased 72% 61% 72% 73% 78%
%homes same 6% 8% 6% 6% 5%
%homes increased 22% 31% 22% 22% 17%
Q3 ‘09 “Misperception” 10 -6 8 15 17
Q2 ‘09 “Misperception” 13 10 10 18 7
Q3 ‘08 “Misperception” 16 20 15 13 13
Value will decrease 17% 17% 18% 16% 15%
Value will stay same 43% 44% 38% 44% 44%
Value will increase 41% 40% 43% 39% 41%

Other highlights of the full report (FULL COPY HERE) …

  • Nationally, fewer than half  — 49% –  believe their home’s value decreased over the past 12 months. Actually, 72% went down.
  • U.S. homeowners were  more optimistic about the future of their own homes’ values than at any time in the past 6 quarters.
  • A full 41% say their own home’s value will increase in the next 6 months. An additional 43% say their home’s value will remain the same, with just 17% saying their home’s value will decrease.

“Consistent with all previous surveys, homeowners also seem to be overly optimistic about future home values,” said said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries. “While we have definitely seen some stabilization in recent months, there is a high likelihood that home values will see further declines driven by an increasing number of foreclosures coming into the market and, possibly, rising interest rates after the first quarter of next year.”

Let’s take our own poll.

My home's value will:
View Results

Other tales by Marilyn Kalfus:

.

Posted in: Home prices • Polls • • | 7 Comments »

SoCal rent costs fall, 1st dip in 14 years

November 19th, 2009, 7:10 am by Jon Lansner

Renting costs in Southern California fell at an annual rate for the first time in 14 years, according to the freshest Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index.

Local renters’ costs fell 0.1% last month vs. October 2008. Last such SoCal decline? A similar size drop in November 1995.

Renters weren’t the only housing winners in the CPI report:

  • Homeowners equivalent inflation rate (purchase costs not included), fell at an 0.7% annual rate in October. That’s biggest SoCal drop since June 1995.
  • Household energy costs in SoCal fell at an 0.7% annual rate in October.Actually, that’s the smallest drop in a string of declines that dates to last November.
  • Household furnishings and operations fell at an 2.5% annual rate in October. That’s biggest SoCal drop since April 2008.
  • Overall, SoCal housing inflation fell at an 0.6% annual rate in October — fourth consecutive drop and biggest since June 1983.
  • As for the big picture, SoCal total inflation rate for all goods and services fell at an 0.4% annual rate in October. It’s the eighth consecutive drop — but that smallest in that string.

Rental trends:

Posted in: Apartments/Rents • Housing inflation • • • | 20 Comments »

Home investments look twice as nice

November 18th, 2009, 12:00 pm by Jeff Collins

Nationwide survey found 12% of people responding plan to buy a home as an investment, twice the share (5.6%) expressing such interest in March.

The survey by the online property listing service Move.com said the lure of lower prices and foreclosure bargains were chief reasons for the growing interest.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

The survey by Move.com also found:

  • Of those expressing interest in investing in homes, 25.3% were interested in buying foreclosed homes.
  • 42% of potential foreclosure buyers are looking for an investment, while 57.6% are looking for a home to live in.
  • Of those planning to buy a home in the near future, 48.3% are first-time buyers.
  • Of the foreclosure investors, 13.2% intend to rent the home out; 11.3% plan to fix them up for resale; while 17.4% plan to have relatives live in the home until it can be sold at a profit.
  • 58% of foreclosure buyers expect to find a home at no more than 20% below market value; 38.5% expect a discount of 25% or more.
  • 73% expect properties to appreciate by 10% or more in five years; 28% believe values will go up 20% or more.
  • 48.2% expressed dissatisfaction with the federal government’s efforts to stabilize the housing market in October vs. 42.2% in March.

The poll was Move.com’s fifth quarterly Homeownership Survey. The latest sampling resulted from 1,002 interviews from Oct. 16-18. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3%. Move Inc. operates several online real estate listing services, include the National Association of Realtors’ Realtor.com. Chief Revenue Officer Errol Samuelson said the survey …

“… validates what many had hoped to see in the housing markets — affordable prices and ample inventories are restoring the appeal of real estate to investors while providing opportunities for first-time homebuyers to enter the market.”

Read more about the survey: HERE!

Our poll!

Home investments ...
View Results

Real estate outlooks:

Posted in: Outlooks • Selling patterns • • | 4 Comments »

Housing debacle hits 4th anniversary

November 17th, 2009, 2:18 pm by Jeff Collins

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

This month marks the fourth year since the discovery of what turned out to be the latest housing slump — the one that triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression.

October 2005 was the first month when total homes sold in Orange County and California fell from year-before levels. Similar annual sales drops continued month-in, month-out for the next 2 3/4 years locally.

The Great Recession that followed reads like a slow-moving catastrophe: Subprime lenders collapsed as defaults and foreclosures soared, followed by the global credit crunch, the collapse of Wall Street mortgage traders and hedge funds, the federal takeover of government-sponsored lending agencies and finally massive layoffs and the stock market crash.

Many economists now say that the slump has ended and recovery has begun. Some Realtors, commentators and many readers on this blog say pronouncements of the slump’s demise are premature.

There have been three major housing slumps since the early 1980s (click on chart to enlarge). Our analysis of California housing data back to 1979 and Orange County data back to 1988 shows that each major slump is spaced roughly five to 10 years apart.

This latest slump turned out to be the most severe and shortest of modern slumps on record. It hit swiftly, lasted just three years, induced the steepest price drop in 30 years of housing data, then — some say — began a slow turnaround early this year.

It took 21 months for price drops to take hold after sales first slumped. Such denial is typical of recent slumps. It took three years for the first annual price drop to appear in California after sales slumped in January 1980. It took a year in the early ’90s

Based on monthly housing data from the California Association of Realtors and MDA DataQuick, here’s a synopsis of key milestones from the last three major housing slumps: the early 1980s, the early 1990s and the Great Recession: Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in: Meltdown • Seeking a bottom • Selling patterns • Top tale • • | 25 Comments »

« Previous Entries