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Lansner on Real Estate ~ The latest news about the housing market from Orange County Register columnist Jon Lansner.

Archive for the 'Home prices' Tag

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Just 6 O.C. ZIPs with April home-price gains

May 19th, 2009, 9:37 am by Jon Lansner

page-teaser-vertFor calendar month April 2009 – DataQuick’s freshest stats — Orange County homebuying patterns showed:

  • 6 of O.C.’s 83 ZIP codes had gains in their respective median selling price. (Highlighted in green below!) Overall, prices were -24.0% vs. a year ago.
  • 6 of O.C. ZIPs had median sales prices above $1 million in the period vs. 11 million-dollar ZIPs when the county median price peaked in June 2007. Since that pricing pinnacle, there’s been a -41% drop in the countywide median price!
  • 48 of O.C. ZIPs had year-over-year sales gains in the period. Overall, sales were +10.4% vs. a year ago.
  • 6 of O.C. ZIPs has sales gains of 100% or more in the period.
  • For a detailed report on the price moves, CLICK HERE!

Here’s a look at the 83 ZIPs and how they fared in terms of median selling price and total sales for this period:

Town ZIP Price Yr. chg. Sales Yr. chg.
Aliso Viejo 92656 $396,250 -12.2% 73 +4.3%
Anaheim 92801 $244,500 -34.7% 29 +16.0%
Anaheim 92802 $325,000 -12.2% 25 +78.6%
Anaheim 92804 $300,000 -25.6% 65 +16.1%
Anaheim 92805 $315,000 -18.4% 69 +176.0%
Anaheim 92806 $375,000 -21.9% 15 +25.0%
Anaheim 92807 $418,000 -27.6% 33 -2.9%
Anaheim 92808 $555,000 +18.2% 15 -31.8%
Brea 92821 $446,000 -15.5% 22 +15.8%
Brea 92823 $522,000 -31.5% 5 -16.7%
Buena Park 90620 $369,000 -9.9% 44 +69.2%
Buena Park 90621 $336,250 -27.2% 12 -14.3%
Corona del Mar 92625 $1,545,000 -14.6% 5 -64.3%
Costa Mesa 92626 $481,500 -10.9% 30 +11.1%
Costa Mesa 92627 $460,750 -18.5% 31 +19.2%
Cypress 90630 $405,500 -18.6% 26 -27.8%
Dana Point 92624 $1,050,000 +55.2% 3 -50.0%
Dana Point 92629 $617,500 -26.7% 32 +0.0%
Foothill Ranch 92610 $342,500 -45.5% 13 -18.8%
Fountain Valley 92708 $512,500 -8.5% 46 +31.4%
Fullerton 92831 $442,000 -22.0% 12 -7.7%
Fullerton 92832 $280,000 -35.6% 9 +12.5%
Fullerton 92833 $400,000 -3.6% 38 +18.8%
Fullerton 92835 $543,000 -6.4% 10 -37.5%
Garden Grove 92840 $335,000 -16.3% 43 +4.9%
Garden Grove 92841 $327,500 -26.0% 30 +50.0%
Garden Grove 92843 $288,500 -25.1% 37 +68.2%
Garden Grove 92844 $262,500 -29.8% 24 +71.4%
Garden Grove 92845 $428,500 -4.4% 14 +55.6%
Huntington Beach 92646 $520,000 -2.5% 46 -6.1%
Huntington Beach 92647 $476,000 -17.2% 19 -38.7%
Huntington Beach 92648 $560,000 -26.8% 32 -27.3%
Huntington Beach 92649 $525,000 -29.8% 17 -32.0%
Irvine 92602 $645,000 +7.1% 20 +11.1%
Irvine 92603 $780,000 -1.0% 27 -3.6%
Irvine 92604 $500,000 -23.1% 12 -7.7%
Irvine 92606 $625,000 +22.8% 9 -10.0%
Irvine 92612 $420,000 -17.6% 19 -34.5%
Irvine 92614 $400,000 -41.6% 19 +58.3%
Irvine 92618 $533,500 -0.8% 13 -27.8%
Irvine 92620 $580,000 +5.5% 26 -10.3%
Ladera Ranch 92694 $460,000 -16.7% 40 -16.7%
La Habra 90631 $300,000 -32.8% 49 +75.0%
La Palma 90623 $486,500 -15.1% 9 +50.0%
Laguna Beach 92651 $1,160,000 -31.2% 19 +26.7%
Laguna Hills 92653 $410,000 +23.1% 39 +21.9%
Laguna Niguel 92677 $515,000 -15.4% 62 +3.3%
Laguna Woods 92637 $245,000 -2.9% 20 -23.1%
Lake Forest 92630 $300,000 -38.5% 61 +3.4%
Los Alamitos 90720 $650,000 -13.3% 12 +20.0%
Midway City 92655 $340,000 -20.0% 5 -16.7%
Mission Viejo 92691 $360,500 -17.1% 33 -10.8%
Mission Viejo 92692 $422,500 -20.3% 47 +6.8%
Newport Beach 92660 $968,000 -21.8% 21 +31.3%
Newport Beach 92661 $1,036,000 -61.6% 2 -33.3%
Newport Beach 92662 $2,200,000 -60.0% 5 +66.7%
Newport Beach 92663 $440,000 -81.4% 20 +42.9%
Newport Coast 92657 $1,050,500 -67.8% 12 -33.3%
Orange 92865 $400,000 -16.7% 21 +110.0%
Orange 92866 $397,500 -27.7% 4 -50.0%
Orange 92867 $410,000 -36.9% 21 +0.0%
Orange 92868 $325,000 -8.5% 10 +11.1%
Orange 92869 $410,000 -29.1% 35 +52.2%
Placentia 92870 $407,500 -20.9% 36 -20.0%
Ran.S. Margarita 92688 $353,000 -20.2% 52 -24.6%
San Clemente 92672 $670,000 -16.5% 29 +16.0%
San Clemente 92673 $659,000 -18.6% 42 +10.5%
San Juan Capo 92675 $305,000 -43.0% 56 +55.6%
Santa Ana 92701 $104,000 -65.7% 48 +336.4%
Santa Ana 92703 $225,000 -31.6% 53 +194.4%
Santa Ana 92704 $257,000 -19.7% 68 +100.0%
Santa Ana 92705 $372,500 -45.0% 30 +20.0%
Santa Ana 92706 $300,000 -25.0% 22 +0.0%
Santa Ana 92707 $207,500 -39.9% 57 +185.0%
Seal Beach 90740 $670,000 -21.4% 14 +75.0%
Stanton 90680 $235,000 -20.7% 23 +91.7%
Trabuco/Coto 92679 $645,000 -24.1% 34 +9.7%
Tustin 92780 $195,000 -57.4% 40 +37.9%
Tustin 92782 $550,000 -25.6% 24 -35.1%
Villa Park 92861 $805,000 -22.4% 3 -66.7%
Westminster 92683 $374,000 -16.9% 51 +54.5%
Yorba Linda 92886 $551,500 -16.1% 43 +7.5%
Yorba Linda 92887 $475,000 -24.8% 16 -11.1%
Total O.C. $380,000 -24.0% 2,391 +10.4%

Posted in: Home prices • • • | 17 Comments »

Silver lining in O.C. home-price dips?

May 14th, 2009, 6:00 pm by Mary Ann Milbourn

page-teaser-hOrange County has a few years to go to dig out of its economic hole, but Cal State Long Beach economists had some good news in their forecast today for would-be homebuyers.

“The affordability has skyrocketed with the plunging home prices.  So, there is a silver lining,” said economist cg1faLisa Grobar.  “In particular, we’re finding that buyers now are able to either afford a house or afford a house in a nice area that would have been out of reach just a year or two ago. Ultimately, that increase in affordability is going to set the stage for recovery.”

She noted that in the recession of the 1990s, it took five years for housing market to adapt to the downturn.  This time it took 18 months.

“Now people all of a sudden are saying, ‘I can afford to buy a home now,’” Grobar said. She said the one thing that may delay a turnaround is consumer confidence.

“But housing prices are no longer the key factor holding buyers back,” Grobar said.

Read more about the economic forecast HERE.

Tell us…

Will affordability turn O.C. housing around?
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For more news on Orange County affordability  …

Posted in: Affordability • Overall economics • Polls • Top tale • • • • | 14 Comments »

When will housing recover? Depends who is talking!

May 9th, 2009, 12:12 am by Jeff Collins

forecast-artA number of optimists, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke among them, believe that a market recovery may be months away, coming sometime this year.

Others take a dimmer view, saying that the housing market won’t pick itself off the floor until 2010 or later. Insider Q&A offers up this overview of what forecasters are saying:

Optimists

Fed Chair Bernanke:

  • The worst of the recession has passed: “We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody’s Ecomomy.com:

  • U.S. home prices will reach bottom by the end of 2009.
  • “Notwithstanding the intensifying economic gloom, the bottom of the housing downturn is within sight.”
  • U.S. home prices will fall another 11 percent on average before stabilizing.
  • The Case- Shiller home price index will fall 36 percent from its 2006 peak to the bottom this year.

UCLA Anderson Forecast:

  • Housing market to stabilize in late 2009, and “when it does, the contraction in residential construction will, finally, after more than three years, cease to be a drag on the California economy.”
  • “As the housing market has completed most of its required adjustment prior to the downturn in general economic activity, it will not be as much of a drag on the recovery as experienced in previous recessions.”
  • Orange County: Home prices stabilizing in 2009 and starting to rise in 2010. But appreciation rates remain in the single digits and prices will still be at 2004 levels in 2013.
  • “This could well be the worst post-WWII downturn yet.”
  • “If there is any good news in the picture it is that the correction in the housing market is almost complete.”
  • “We are due for significant increases in unemployment through the 2nd quarter of 2010.”
  • “Continued job loss in California is going to lead to more foreclosures and more uncertainty about the ultimate bottom in housing prices.”

California Association of Realtors:

  • Recessionary conditions through the first half of 2009, “before we begin to see a turnaround in the second half of next year.”
  • Prices down 28.4%. That’s revised from an earlier projection that prices would drop just 6% this year.
  • Sales up 25%. CAR forecasts that 550,000 homes will sell in 2009, pretty good considering that the state was down to 347,000 sales a year in 2007. That’s revised from an earlier projection of 445,000 home sales.

Pessimists

Michael Carney, director, Real Estate Research Council of Southern California, Cal Poly Pomona:

  • “I don’t see home prices leveling off in 2010. … The real reason we’re not going to see a recovery: The financing is not coming back for at least 5 years.”

Richard Green, director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate:

  • “I’d say we’re at bottom if it weren’t for the fact that the jobs picture is so dim.” … (Thinks market will turn around in 2010.)

Stan Humphries, VP of data and analytics, Zillow:

  • “I’m doubtful that we’ll see the bottom until 2010, and thereafter it’s increasingly clear that we’re likely to have a long bottom before we see meaningful recovery in home values.”

Construction Industry Research Board:

  • 2009 is expected to be the worst year on record for new residential building permits.
  • Just 63,400 units will be produced in 2009, down 3% from the 2008 record-low of 65,380 units.
  • 2008 construction was 20% lower than the lowest point during either the 1980s or 1990s housing downturns.
  • The low in the early ’90s recession was 84,656 units in ’93. The worst year during the early ’80s recession was 85,656 in 1982.

Read more …

Posted in: Insider Q&A • Outlooks • • • • • • • • | 116 Comments »

Realtors see ballooning Calif. house-price drops

May 8th, 2009, 3:30 am by Jeff Collins

car-logoThe California Association of Realtors’ housing forecast now calls for a 28.4% drop in the median price of a California house.

That compares to a projected drop of just 6% originally expected when the association first unveiled its 2009 forecast in October.

In its revised forecast, the association predicts that:

  • The median house price will fall to $248,000 in 2009. In October, CAR expected the price to fall only to $358,000.
  • The projected drop comes on top of a 38% price decline in 2008, when the median fell to $346,400, down from $560,300 the year before.
  • House sales, however, are projected to be much better than expected back in October, with 550,000 houses sold statewide this year.
  • That would be a 25% increase from 2008, when 439,800 houses sold.
  • The revised sales outlook is pretty good considering that the state was down to 347,000 sales a year in 2007.
  • The 550,000 sales is revised from an earlier projection of 445,000 houses sold.

In other real estate news …

Posted in: California conditions • Outlooks • Top tale • • • • • • • • • • • • | 99 Comments »

LA-OC home-price declines leveling off

April 28th, 2009, 1:36 pm by Jeff Collins
Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Prices for existing single-family homes in the Los Angeles-Orange County area fell 24.1% in February from February 2008, according to the Case-Shiller’s Home Price Index. That’s the fifth-biggest decline among the 20 key metro areas included in Standard & Poor’s survey.

Still it’s the smallest annual decline in the LA-OC index in 10 months, perhaps a sign that prices could be nearing the bottom of the current housing slump.

City Pct. chg.
Phoenix -35.2%
Las Vegas -31.7%
San Francisco -31.0%
Miami -29.5%
LA-OC -24.1%
Detroit -23.6%
Tampa -23.0%
San Diego -22.9%
Minneapolis -20.3%
Washington, D.C. -19.2%
Chicago -17.6%
Seattle -15.4%
Atlanta -15.3%
Portland, Ore. -14.4%
New York -10.2%
Charlotte -9.4%
Cleveland -8.5%
Boston -7.2%
Denver -5.7%
Dallas -4.5%
Composite-10 -18.8%
Composite-20 -18.6%

In October, the annual price decline peaked at 28%.  The percentage decline has decreased each month since then. The trend was apparent elsewhere in the nation. S&P Index Committee Chairman David M. Blitzer said:

“While the declines in residential real estate continued into February, we witnessed some deceleration in the rate of decline in some of the markets. All 20 metro areas recorded a monthly decline in February, but 16 of the 20 metro areas saw an improvement in their monthly returns compared to January. Nine of the 20 metro areas showed improvement in their annual returns compared to their returns in January. Furthermore, this is the first month since October 2007 where the 10- and 20-City Composites did not post a record annual decline. We will certainly need a few more months of data before we can determine if home prices are finally turning around.”

Home prices here were down 40.4% from the September 2006 peak.

To see the press release, CLICK HERE!

To read wire stories about the latest figures, CLICK HERE and HERE!

Read more …

Posted in: Home prices • Top tale • • • | 73 Comments »

Calif. is back as worst U.S. home market

April 24th, 2009, 2:00 am by Jon Lansner
While Sales Of Existing Homes Rise In July, Prices Continue To Fall

California has regained it’s status as the nation’s worst housing market.

Fresh data from First American LoanPerformance — its estimate of March home pricing — shows California at the bottom of the national barrel with a 25.18% year-to-year loss. That’s just ahead of Nevada at 24.88%.

Revised FALP data shows California at the bottom of these rankings for 20 consecutive months — from May 2007 to last December. Nevada usurped the Golden State’s most-tarnished ranking for January and February. FALP uses “paired sales” math that tracks losses or gains on individual properties sold in a given month.

The rest of the bottom 10 for March? Florida (-19.94%); Arizona (-19.79%); Rhode Island (-17.98%) Illinois (-14.18%); Washington (-13.62%); Oregon (-11.43%); Maryland ( -11.08%) and Virginia (-10.73%.) By FALP’s count, nationwide prices were falling at a 12.58% rate.

Oh, by the way: National leader is West Virgina (+7.27%) for the 12th straight month.

Read more …

Posted in: California conditions • Home prices • Top tale • • • • | 32 Comments »

O.C. called nation’s 10th worst housing market

April 19th, 2009, 2:10 pm by Jeff Collins

The housing forecasting site HousingPredictor.com projected that the average price of an Orange County home will tumble another 21.1% this year, making the O.C. market the 10th worst in the nation this year, just behind L.A.

The site says:

“In Orange County, where foreclosures have practically been the only homes selling, accounting for 4 in 6 sales, home prices have been falling at double-digit rates. The medium price towards the end of 2008 was at $400,000, the highest in Southern California, providing a lot more room for deflation. Home values are forecast to drop 21.1% in Orange County, which includes Anaheim, in 2009.”

That prediction comes on top of a 42% fall from the peak already. If true, the median price here would drop about $83,000 this year from the 2008 year-end level, settling around $313,000.

It also is the polar opposite of another forecast out this week by Irvine-based Real Estate Economics. REE projected that home prices here will go up 1.1% during the next 12 months.

What do you think?

Have prices hit bottom, or are they due for another round of cuts?
View Results

HousingPredictor.com, by the way, calls Las Vegas the nation’s worst market of 2009, out of 250 U.S. markets it follows. No. 2 is Miami. Both are projected to see prices drop by about 27% this year.

Other news …

The best market? Billings, Mont, where prices are projected to rise 2.1% in 2009, followed by Fargo, N.D. Montana and North Dakota dominate the best markets list thanks to strong job markets and conservative lending practices that shied away from creative financing plans that sunk California, Florida and ultimately, the global economy.

In other real estate news …

Posted in: Outlooks • Top tale • • • • | 31 Comments »

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