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Lansner on Real Estate ~ The latest news about the housing market from Orange County Register columnist Jon Lansner.

Archive for the 'bottom' Tag

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O.C. home price seen rising 10.9% in year

November 20th, 2009, 12:02 am by Jon Lansner
September sales: Click for details!
$532,000

$532,000

$613,000

$613,000

$1,450,000

$1,450,000

First American CoreLogic’s computers say …

  • Orange County homes prices, in the year ending September 2010, will appreciate 10.94%. Last month, First American projected a 9.53% annual again for year ending August 2010.
  • Orange County homes prices — including distressed sales — declined 6.74% in the year ended in September vs. 7.92% rate of annual decline in August.
  • Excluding distressed transactions, Orange County homes prices year-over-year fell 6.14% in September vs. August’s -7.07%.
  • California prices? Down 12.16% annually (with distressed); down 6.95% (without.) Forecast? Up 9.36% in a year with distressed included; +8.24% without.
  • National home prices — including distressed sales — declined by -9.8% annual rate in September. (Excluding distressed sales, national year-over-year prices declined by 6%.)
  • In year ending September 2010, forecast appreciation for national home prices — excluding distressed — is 1.1%.
  • When distressed sales were included Nevada (-25.5%) was the nation’s worst for year ended September!

Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic: “While the improvement in the year-over-year decline is encouraging, high foreclosure rates and increasing distressed sales are likely to continue to hold prices down.”

Recent outlooks:

Posted in: Outlooks • • • | 168 Comments »

Really? 1st rise for Bay Area home price in 2 years

November 19th, 2009, 6:00 pm by Jon Lansner

really

Real estate news and views from around the globe that make you go, “Really?”

… Psst! Smallest SoCal home-price loss in 2 years!

Posted in: Odds & ends • • • • | 15 Comments »

Best homebuying October in 4 years?

November 13th, 2009, 12:25 am by Jon Lansner

October may not been so spooky for local real estate. For the 22 business days ending Oct. 22 – DataQuick’s latest homebuying report — Orange County saw as the end of month neared …

22 days ending Oct. 22
Slice Price Yr. ago Sales Yr. ago
Houses $495,000 +3.6% 2,001 +10.4%
Condos $310,000 +8.8% 905 +10.2%
New $505,750 +4.4% 176 -6.9%
All O.C. $435,000 +4.8% 3,082 +9.2%
  • Shoppers bought 3,082 residences — that is +9.2% vs. year-ago buying activity. (From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.)
  • Assuming the month finished at the last reported sale space, this would be the most active October for local homebuying since 2005!
  • September was 15th straight month of sales gains vs. the year-ago period. That follows 33 consecutive months where sales failed to beat the previous year’s pace.
  • In this most recent period, O.C.’s $435,000 median selling price is +4.8% vs. a year ago … yet 33% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000.
  • The most recent median is 18% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — a current bottom that was -43% below the peak.
  • Prices fell on a year-over-year basis from Sept. 2007 through August. (Worst at -31.5% in August 2008.)
  • Single-family homes resell for 33% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while condos sell 34% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 41% below their February ‘05 top.

Other real estate trends:

Posted in: DataQuick reports • Selling patterns • • • | 145 Comments »

Number of O.C. homeowners without equity declines

November 9th, 2009, 9:59 am by Jon Lansner

Online real estate tracker Zillow reports that the share of Orange County single-family homes with mortgages larger than the current value of the home — so-called “negative equity” or “underwater” — fell to 14% percent in the third quarter, down from 20.7% in Q2.

  • That follows the nationwide trend: 21% of U.S. homes had negative equity in the third quarter vs. 23% in Q2.
  • Zillow credits the improvements to stabilizing home values and more underwater homeowners losing their homes to foreclosure.
  • Zillow puts O.C. home depreciation for Q3 at 4.46% a year. Year-over-year home values in the United States declined for the 11th consecutive quarter, falling 6.9%.
  • 22.3% of O.C. home sales involved foreclosures vs. 21.4% nationally. Merced? 72%! Vegas? 67%!
  • 19.2% of O.C. homes sold in September were sold at a loss.
  • 26% of O.C. homes have had their values increase, by Zillow’s math, in the past 12 months.

Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries on nationwide conditions: “With the extension of the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit and a new $6,500 credit for some repeat homebuyers, we could see a bump in demand that could partially offset the increased supply of foreclosed homes on the market. The credits are likely to bring continued stabilization in prices over this period, versus the price declines that we almost certainly would see otherwise. Whether this stabilization will be sustainable after the tax credits expire, however, is yet to be seen. Some of the demand that we are buying with tax credits we are also borrowing from the future, and will likely have to pay for later in the form of weaker-than-normal demand.”

Real estate outlooks:

Posted in: Distressed properties • • • | 63 Comments »

Beach town home sales up 27%

November 8th, 2009, 4:30 pm by Jon Lansner

For the 22 business days ending Oct. 16 – fresh from DataQuick — A region-by-region analysis of homebuying shows Orange County slices up geographically speaking this way …

  • DataQuick identified 506 homes selling in beach cities’ ZIP codes last month, +27% from a year ago. Median selling price? $693,500 in these 17 ZIPs. Last month’s median price change was -6.3% vs. a year ago.
  • South inland ZIPs — median selling price $516,250 – had 830 sales, +20% from a year ago. In these 19 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was +3.6% vs. a year ago.
  • North inland ZIPs — median selling price $455,000 – had 799 sales, +11% from a year ago. In these 23 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was -4.6% vs. a year ago.
  • Mid-county ZIPs — median selling price $351,000 – had 909 sales, -8% from a year ago. In these 24 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was -1.3% vs. a year ago.
  • All told, countywide sales were +5% vs. a year ago. The median selling price was +4% in the past year.

How did your neighborhood fare? Check our ZIP-by-ZIP data HERE!

Other real estate trends:

Posted in: Home prices • Local-Local • Luxury homes • • • | 42 Comments »

O.C. home pricing near longest rise in 4 years

November 6th, 2009, 10:05 am by Jon Lansner
For the 22 business days ending Oct. 16
Slice Price Yr. ago Sales Yr. ago
Houses $495,000 +4.2% 2,018 +5.7%
Condos $308,500 +4.6% 917 +8.8%
New $500,000 +3.1% 168 -19.6%
All O.C. $435,000 +3.6% 3,103 +4.8%

For the 22 business days ending Oct. 16 – DataQuick’s latest homebuying report — Orange County saw …

  • $435,000 median selling price that is $6,000 above September (+1.4%) and would mark the 6th consecutive month of price gains — longest winning streak since 7 up months ended Aug. 2005.
  • Price is +3.6% vs. a year ago and -33% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000.
  • The most recent median is 18% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — a current bottom that was -43% below the peak.
  • Prices fell on a year-over-year basis from Sept. 2007 through August. (Worst at -31.5% in August 2008.)
  • Single-family homes resell for 33% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while condos sell 34% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 42% below their February ‘05 top.
  • In this most recent period, O.C. shoppers bought 3,103 residences — that is +4.8% vs. year-ago buying activity. (From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.)
  • September was 15th straight month of sales gains vs. the year-ago period. That follows 33 consecutive months where sales failed to beat the previous year’s pace.

How did your neighborhood fare? Check our ZIP-by-ZIP data HERE!

“Other real estate trends:
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Posted in: DataQuick reports • Top tale • • • | 96 Comments »

Shrinking real estate: 57% fewer O.C. homes to buy

November 3rd, 2009, 12:20 pm by Jeff Collins
click to enlarge

click to enlarge

The number of homes listed for sale continues to drop, decreasing by 174 listings over the past two weeks (down 2%). That brings the new total to 7,749 listings as of Thursday, according to Aliso Viejo broker Steve Thomas.

  • The last time the Orange County housing market was this small: January 2006, when the slump was just getting started.
  • Last week’s listings are down 39% from a year ago, when there were 12,790 homes for sale; and it’s down 57% from the peak (17,898 listings in September 2007).
  • In addition, 3,166 new deals were signed in October, Thomas reported. That reflects a seasonal dip from this year’s selling peak of more than 3,600 new deals a month last spring.

Said Thomas:

“There is very little fresh, new inventory. The lower the range, the “spookier” it gets. Properties that are priced right and in great condition are flying off of the market with multiple offers and tremendous activity. Buyers new to the market are dumbfounded by all of the competition. Their expectations are of doom and gloom and the ability to “cherry pick” whatever home they are interested in AND at a discount. Yet, just about every agent has pockets filled with buyers who want to buy but have been unable to purchase after losing out on property after property.”

Thomas also calculates a “market time” benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS at the current pace of deal making. By Thomas’ logic: Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in: Inventory • Seeking a bottom • Selling patterns • Top tale • • • | 51 Comments »

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