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Lansner on Real Estate ~ The latest news about the housing market from Orange County Register columnist Jon Lansner.

Portola Hills hardest town to buy homes

February 8th, 2010, 9:00 am by Jon Lansner

The latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo says that as of February 4 …

Hottest Supply Deals Mon. Yr. ago Price
Portola Hills 11 14 0.8 2.0 $527k
Ran. Santa Marg. 120 106 1.1 2.8 $382k
Aliso Viejo 114 98 1.2 3.1 $455k
Lake Forest 99 82 1.2 2.9 $485k
Ladera Ranch 99 76 1.3 3.1 $858k
County Supply Deals Mon. Yr. ago Price
All of O.C. 7,857 3,248 2.4 4.3 $1.1m
Coolest Supply Deals Mon. Yr. ago Price
Villa Park 39 3 13.0 16.5 $1.7m
Corona Del Mar 165 16 10.3 31.0 $3.1m
Laguna Beach 300 34 8.8 22.3 $3.8m
Newport Beach 459 65 7.1 17.8 $2.4m
Seal Beach 216 36 6.0 10.0 $349k
  • The “hardest” O.C. town to find a home to buy in terms of “market time” (supply of homes for sale vs. new purchase deals inked in past month) is Portola Hills at 0.8 months (yes, 24 DAYS) to theoretically sell all for-sale homes at the current buying pace. A year ago, this town was at 2.0 months.
  • The 5 “hardest to buy” markets combined have a market time of 1.2 months and comprised 6% of the supply of homes for sale.
  • “Hardest” market to sell a home in, based on the same math, is Villa Park with market time at 13.0 months to theoretically sells all for-sale homes at the current buying pace. A year ago, this town was at 16.5 months.
  • The 5 “hardest to sell” markets have a combined market time of 7.7 months and were 15% of the supply of homes for sale.
  • All told, countywide market time was 2.4 months last week.
  • Interesting: 45% of the communities tracked by Thomas had “market times” less than 2 months, a clear sellers’ market. Four weeks ago? 18% – and it was 0% a year ago.
  • Chart at right looks at the 5 hottest and 5 coldest markets in O.C. as of last Thursday (supply for sale; new deals made; market time in months vs. a year ago and average listing price) by Thomas’ market time math:
  • More stats from Altera Real Estate HERE!

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Lansner on Real Estate’s most-popular posts in January …

  1. $19.8 million sale a Newport Coast record
  2. OC Housewife lynne avoids eviction
  3. OC Housewife lynne to bankruptcy court?
  4. Irvine Co.: 400 buyers lined up for new project
  5. Laguna home fetches OC’s 4th-highest sale
  6. OC rents fall 6.7% to mid-2006 level
  7. Hear why home prices won’t surge
  8. 2-in-3 landlords cutting rent
  9. Irvine home tops most-viewed list
  10. Home sales, prices seen falling in 2011
  11. “Million Dollar Listing” slashed
  12. Really? New San Diego resort shuts

Posted in: Selling patterns • • • | 2 Comments »

Best start for O.C. home market in 5 years

February 8th, 2010, 12:07 am by Jon Lansner

widget-lansner-text-messageSteve Thomas at Altera Real Estate’s latest Orange County home inventory report says that demand for local homes is starting off a year at its highest level in 5 years. Thomas remarks:

“There is a lot of confusion about the housing market because there are really three markets: less than $750,000, $750,000 to $1.5 million, and $1.5 million plus. For all homes less than $750,000, the market is ON FIRE with multiple offers and sales prices above the list prices. When the expected market time drops below two months, the market is crazy with a lot of competition. The $750,000 to $1.5 million range is getting hotter and many are experiencing multiple offers. There are more jumbo loan products available with much more attractive rates. For homes above $1.5 million, the market is as cold as ice, the higher the range, the colder the market.”

Thomas calculates a “market time” benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the homes-for-sale inventory in local brokers’ MLS listings at the current pace of pending Orange County deals being made. By this Thomas logic, it would take:

  • 2.42 months for buyers to gobble up all Orange County homes for sale at the current pace vs. 3.02 months two weeks vs. 4.31 months a year ago vs. 9.73 two years ago.
  • Homes listed for under a million bucks have a market time of 2.00 months vs. 8.40 months for homes listed for more than $1 million.
  • Coverage of other data reports from Altera ARE HERE!

Here’s the data, as of last Thursday, for listings; deals pending; market time in months; last Thursday vs. 2 weeks ago, a year ago and 2 years ago (Note: k=thousand; m=million) …

Slice Listings Deals Months 2 wks. ago 1 yr. ago 2 yr. ago
•$0-$250k 1,187 690 1.72 2.27 3.26 8.38
•$250k-$500k 2,405 1474 1.63 2.03 3.08 8.38
•$500k-$750k 1,653 635 2.60 3.04 4.19 10.04
•$750k-$1m 851 242 3.52 4.75 6.81 9.77
•$1m-$1.5m 640 145 4.41 5.73 11.47 12.67
•$1.5m-$2m 372 35 10.63 13.50 20.89 13.62
•$2m-4m 530 29 18.28 19.52 45.07 19.03
•$4m+ 297 10 29.70 24.33 60.00 34.29
All O.C. 7,857 3,248 2.42 3.02 4.31 9.73

Lansner on Real Estate’s most-popular posts in January …

  1. $19.8 million sale a Newport Coast record
  2. OC Housewife lynne avoids eviction
  3. OC Housewife lynne to bankruptcy court?
  4. Irvine Co.: 400 buyers lined up for new project
  5. Laguna home fetches OC’s 4th-highest sale
  6. OC rents fall 6.7% to mid-2006 level
  7. Hear why home prices won’t surge
  8. 2-in-3 landlords cutting rent
  9. Irvine home tops most-viewed list
  10. Home sales, prices seen falling in 2011
  11. “Million Dollar Listing” slashed
  12. Really? New San Diego resort shuts

Posted in: Inventory • • • | 28 Comments »

Big landlords hope? O.C. recovery in 2013

February 7th, 2010, 2:49 pm by Jon Lansner
ucla-comme-re

Click to enlarge

The latest Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast Commercial Real Estate Survey of big landlords ad property owners shows a burgeoning optimism that a revival is somewhat near for much of Southern California. Well, the caveat being — eh, Orange County. Jerry Nickelsburg, UCLA senior economist, says of the region in a press release: “As the recovery from this deep recession takes hold, investors in commercial real estate are increasingly of the view that 2012 is going to represent an improvement over today.”
Yet the report says of Orange County:

“For some time we have been saying that the Orange County office market is a 2013 or 2014 recovery. The loss of finance and real estate jobs created a huge hole in demand which is not easily filled. Our panel is also more optimistic about Orange County than they were six months ago, but the optimism seems to be based more on the transfer of buildings to new owners at lower capital costs and on the decline of rents to levels which are sustainable in today’s market. In other words, the panel expects markets to equilibrate and market conditions to improve, but not to the extent of Los Angeles or San Diego. So, opportunities are going to exist in this very tough market, but not in the creation of new floor space for lease.”

Lansner on Real Estate’s most-popular post in January …

  1. $19.8 million sale a Newport Coast record
  2. OC Housewife lynne avoids eviction
  3. OC Housewife lynne to bankruptcy court?
  4. Irvine Co.: 400 buyers lined up for new project
  5. Laguna home fetches OC’s 4th-highest sale
  6. OC rents fall 6.7% to mid-2006 level
  7. Hear why home prices won’t surge
  8. 2-in-3 landlords cutting rent
  9. Irvine home tops most-viewed list
  10. Home sales, prices seen falling in 2011
  11. “Million Dollar Listing” slashed
  12. Really? New San Diego resort shuts

Posted in: Commercial property • Outlooks • • | 20 Comments »

7 social media apps we’d like to see built

February 7th, 2010, 12:00 pm by Jon Lansner

socialsundayplain We at sOCial sunday know there are already so any social media applications. Sadly, they don’t do everything we’d want them to do. So we ask a few of our pals what’s app they’d like to see built …

  1. “An easy program that tracks all of my social media accounts and allows me to stay up-to-date without having to visit multiple sites. There are apps out there that promise this, but I’ve yet to find one that is both intuitive and works seamlessly.” – Bryan Howland, Maples Communications
  2. “A social rating system for YouTube videos. I’d like to know which videos my friends think are good/bad so I know what I should bother watching when a link comes my way.” – Donald Patterson, quub.com
  3. “Mobile based Web conferencing and work collaboration software. Combining Webex, Google Wave and Skype, only operated from mobile access.” — Chip Ahlswede, RegalStrategies.com
  4. “A social media metrics tool that helped you to measure social media engagement from the strategy phase through to the engagement and onto the sales funnel.  The tool would then track the lifetime of that customer helping to show long-tail return on investment.” – Justin Levy, New Marketing Labs
  5. “An app that let’s me know where the conversation is happening with my friends, across any platform, site or otherwise. If 20 friends RSVP for the same event I want to know about it, etc. These tools are built to bring people together, let’s make them so you know when people are coming together without you having to find it yourself.” – Morgan Brown, TurnHere
  6. “A mobile device that allows people to work, learn, recreate and entertain with just one device. Imagine communicating, learning and playing without having to transition to different tools and platforms. I also would build an App to enhance citizen engagement, combat crime and hunger and bring peace to the world. One can only dream, right?” — Ted Nguyen, Orange County Transportation Authority
  7. “Since I am not that much of a geek I would have to say - build an app to find my future husband.” – Gretchen Benes, gretchenbenes.com

Did you miss …

[ Want social media tips by email? CLICK HERE! ]

Posted in: Selling patterns | 4 Comments »

5 ways to sell more with videos

February 7th, 2010, 11:00 am by Jon Lansner

ssmarketing sOCial sunday tracks Social Media because it’s real business — notably, a hot marketing tool. Orange County marketer Morgan Brown (@morganb) tells us how online video can be powerful sales tool for small business …

Statistics show that video improves visibility and drives more customer action online than plain web sites. For example, according to TurnHere and industry research, viewers engage more after watching a video, with clicks for more information increasing by 30% to 40% and phone inquiries by 16% to 20%. You don’t need the budget of Scorsese to make video work either. And for the aspiring filmmaker in each of us new classes of video cameras (such as the popular Flip or Kodak Z-series) make it easy to shoot and share.

And whether you choose to do-it-yourself or hire a pro, marketing your business with online video doesn’t end with the production. Remember, videos need to be seen. Here are a few tips to help you make the most out of your video marketing:

1. Aim for authentic, actionable content: Be authentic. Be personal. After all, this is your chance to tell your business’s story and show what really makes you different. Keep the video short and informational in nature — since customers are jaded by typical sales pitches. Creating authentic video that captures the human element behind any business allows customers to connect on a personal level. And don’t forget to incorporate a call to action. Build trust and then give viewers a reason and a way to call you, visit your website, or stop by your store. Be sure to include some measurable action path — for example, a unique URL, discount code, or phone number to call. You’ll encourage viewers to engage with you, and be able to measure the results of your video.

2. Optimize it for Google search: Search engines now display more videos, images, blogs, maps, and news in their results. These changes favor video, giving you a great opportunity to increase your ranking in search results (and even achieve that coveted first page ranking on Google). In fact, a Forrester Research experiment discovered that videos have a 50 times better chance than an ordinary web site for getting to the top of search rankings. Add keywords into the filenames of your video. Include keyword-rich descriptions and tags and put your video on keyword-rich web pages.

3. Add it to your Facebook page: On Facebook, use video to show the human side of your company. Think fun and creative. Show a ‘behind the scenes’ peak at your office or shop. Use video to announce a new products or specials. Post video highlights of past events, customer testimonials and more.

4. Put it on YouTube and other video sites: Video sites are great ways to reach potential new customers. Create a branded YouTube channel and host your videos for free. And don’t worry — you don’t need the next viral sensation to find success on YouTube. Small businesses can build sales without generating a million views.

5. Add it to your Google Local Business listing: By adding video to your business listing on Google Local, you’ll be able to tell your story and connect with those people who are looking for your products or services, at the very point in time when they’re actively researching or ready to buy. An engaging video brings your listing to life and sets you apart from the crowd.

[ Want social media tips by email? CLICK HERE! ]

Posted in: Social Media • • • | 6 Comments »

North O.C. homes sales up 13%

February 6th, 2010, 5:00 pm by Jon Lansner

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For the 22 business days ending January 14 – freshesh stats from DataQuick — our region-by-region analysis of homebuying shows Orange County slices up geographically speaking this way …

  • DataQuick identified 611 homes selling in Orange County’s north-inland ZIP codes in this most recent period, +13% from a year ago. Median selling price? $441,000 in these 23 ZIPs. This most recent median price change was +3.1% vs. a year ago.
  • Mid-county ZIPs — median selling price $344,000 – had 661 sales, -11% from a year ago. In these 24 ZIPs, the freshets median price change was +7.5% vs. a year ago.
  • Combined, homes sales in ZIPs in the north and mid-section of Orange County were -0.7% vs. a year ago as homebuying the the rest of the county ran +37.2% vs. 12 months earlier.
  • North/mid-county homes accounted for 56% of residences sold in the most recent period vs. 63% a year ago.
  • 371 homes sold in beach cities’ 17 ZIP codes in the most recent period, +24% from a year ago. Median selling price? $650,000 in these 17 ZIPs. Newest median price change was -0.7% vs. a year ago.
  • South inland ZIPs — median selling price $463,750 – had 643 sales, +46% from a year ago. In these 19 ZIPs, the latest median price change was +7.8% vs. a year ago.
  • All told, countywide sales were +9% vs. a year ago. The median selling price was +12% in the past year.

How did your neighborhood fare? Check our ZIP-by-ZIP data HERE!

Lansner on Real Estate’s most-popular post in January …

  1. $19.8 million sale a Newport Coast record
  2. OC Housewife lynne avoids eviction
  3. OC Housewife lynne to bankruptcy court?
  4. Irvine Co.: 400 buyers lined up for new project
  5. Laguna home fetches OC’s 4th-highest sale
  6. OC rents fall 6.7% to mid-2006 level
  7. Hear why home prices won’t surge
  8. 2-in-3 landlords cutting rent
  9. Irvine home tops most-viewed list
  10. Home sales, prices seen falling in 2011
  11. “Million Dollar Listing” slashed
  12. Really? New San Diego resort shuts

Posted in: Selling patterns • • | 4 Comments »

Buying shopping centers with $140M — cash

February 6th, 2010, 12:02 am by Jeff Collins

Cash is king in today’s tight-money market, and Stoneridge Capital Partners is taking advantage of that through all-cash investments in real estate.

During the past 10 months, the Newport Beach real estate investment firm has invested more than $140 million in shopping centers and apartments. Its most recent purchase was the $50 million purchase of  the Mililani Community Shopping Center in central Oahu, north of Pearl Harbor, the company said.

Before that, Stoneridge acquired The Village at Indian Wells near Palm Springs for $20 million and Avila at Rancho Santa Margarita, a 498-unit luxury apartment complex in South Orange County, for $70 million.

Stoneridge CEO Greg Merage is the nephew of Chef America Inc. co-founder and philanthropist Paul Merage (as in the Paul Merage School of Business at UC Irvine), who also works in an advisory capacity with the firm. We asked Greg Merage how he sees the commercial investment market and where the greatest opportunities lie.

Us: Is now a good time for investors to find bargains in commercial real estate?  Is there a lot of buying going on?

greg-merage-headshotGreg: While there may be some bargains available, they are still very difficult to find and usually involve significantly higher risk due to inferior locations or high vacancies. As a result, the overall volume of transactions has declined over the past two years and remains at a low level.

Owners of retail centers have no incentive to sell their properties in markets with declining values, while lenders who might otherwise foreclose on properties are instead opting to re-structure existing financing.

Despite this trend, we believe the high level of distress among property owners and financial institutions will lead to outstanding commercial real estate investment opportunities in late 2010 and 2011. We should see transaction volume increase at that time.

Us: Generally, what markets do you think provide the best opportunities for commercial investors? Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in: Commercial property • Insider Q&A • • • • | 22 Comments »

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