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Lansner on Real Estate ~ The latest news about the housing market from Orange County Register columnist Jon Lansner.

Archive for the 'Inventory' Category

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Ladera Ranch homes hardest to buy

November 16th, 2009, 9:01 am by Jon Lansner

Look who’s no. 1, so to speak! The latest Orange County home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo says that as of November 12 the local real estate market saw …

Hottest Supply Deals Mon. Yr. ago Price
Ladera Ranch 80 74 1.1 1.6 $1.1m
Aliso Viejo 118 95 1.2 1.2 $460k
Rancho Santa Marg. 100 79 1.3 1.3 $405k
Buena Park 98 75 1.3 1.7 $436k
Anaheim 335 243 1.4 1.3 $357k
County Supply Deals Mon. Yr. ago Price
All of O.C. 7,719 3,241 2.4 2.5 $1.2m
Coolest Supply Deals Mon. Yr. ago Price
Corona Del Mar 182 17 10.7 16.3 $2.9m
Newport Beach 561 64 8.8 9.4 $2.4m
Laguna Beach 339 41 8.3 10.3 $3.9m
Coto De Caza 115 17 6.8 8.7 $2.4m
Newport Coast 148 23 6.4 6.3 $4.2m
  • The “hardest” O.C. town to find a home to buy in terms of “market time” (supply of homes for sale vs. new purchase deals inked in past month) is Ladera Ranch at 1.1 months to theoretically sell all for-sale homes at the current buying pace. Average listing price? $1.1 million.
  • “Hardest” market to sell a home in, based on the same math, is Corona Del Mar at 10.7 months to theoretically sell all for-sale homes at the current buying pace. Average listing price? $2.9 million.
  • Overall O.C. market time? 2.4 months.
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One Ladera Ranch home has been newsy lately. We’ve reported that the family home of Tamra Barney, one of cable TV’s “Real Housewives of Orange County,” is in escrow. The home — pictured at left, click to enlarge — had been listed as a “short sale” for $1.149 million.

Ladera Ranch, a new community built out at the peak of the market, has been a troubled housing market beset by foreclsoures and slumping prices. Barney’s broker Marcos Prolo, a Ladera resident and seller of property there for 6 years says: “It’s probably the worst hit in the South County area.”

Above at right, there’s at look at the 5 hottest and 5 coldest markets in O.C. as of last Thursday (supply for sale; new deals made; market time in months vs. a year ago and average listing price) by Thomas’ market time math! (More stats from Altera Real Estate HERE!)

Other local real estate troubles …

Posted in: Inventory • • • | 40 Comments »

8.8 months of million-dollar homes unsold

November 16th, 2009, 9:00 am by Jon Lansner

The latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo shows his “market time” benchmark — tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made — as a tale of two cities. That is, if you slice Orange County by price!

By this Thomas logic, it would take:

  • 2.38 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 2.45 months two weeks vs. 5.18 months a year ago vs. 13.31 two years ago.
  • Yet homes listed for under a million bucks have a market time of 1.9 months vs. 8.8 months for homes listed for more than $1 million. Or it’s 4.7 times hardest to sell a 7-figure home!

Here’s the data, as of last Thursday, for listings; deals pending; market time in months; last Thursday vs. 2 weeks ago, a year ago and 2 years ago (Note: k=thousand; m=million) …

SLICE Listings Deals Time (mos.) 2 wks. ago 1 yr. ago 2 yr. ago
•$0-$250k 1,112 691 1.61 1.60 3.75 11.63
•$250k-$500k 2,091 1396 1.50 1.47 3.75 11.63
•$500k-$750k 1,576 694 2.27 2.34 5.33 14.00
•$750k-$1m 887 249 3.56 3.70 9.10 13.59
•$1m-$1.5m 729 135 5.40 5.94 14.43 15.11
•$1.5m-$2m 415 59 7.03 6.88 18.55 18.81
•$2m-4m 619 39 15.87 17.42 32.05 18.53
•$4m+ 356 8 44.50 37.70 90.00 18.77
All O.C. 7,719 3,241 2.38 2.45 5.18 13.31

Coverage of other data reports from Altera ARE HERE!

Posted in: Inventory • Luxury homes • • | 6 Comments »

South County houses sell the quickest

November 4th, 2009, 2:00 am by Jon Lansner

The latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo says that as of October 29 that South County homes sell the quickest …

  • The “hardest” O.C. town to find a home to buy in terms of “market time” (supply of homes for sale vs. new purchase deals inked in past month) is Foothill Ranch at 1.0 months to theoretically sells all for-sale homes at the current buying pace.
  • “Hardest” market to sell a home in, based on the same math, is Corona Del Mar at 11.7 months to theoretically sells all for-sale homes at the current buying pace.

Here’s at look at the 5 hottest and 5 coldest markets in O.C. as of last Thursday (supply for sale; new deals made; market time in months vs. a year ago and average listing price) by Thomas’ market time math:

Hottest Supply Deals Mon. Yr. ago Price
Foothill Ranch 30 31 1.0 1.4 $551k
Aliso Viejo 96 96 1.0 1.2 $474k
Lake Forest 82 72 1.1 1.0 $558k
Dove Canyon 13 11 1.2 1.7 $870k
Fountain Valley 65 50 1.3 2.5 $550k
County Supply Deals Mon. Yr. ago Price
All of O.C. 7,749 3,166 2.4 2.4 $1.2m
Coolest Supply Deals Mon. Yr. ago Price
Corona Del Mar 187 16 11.7 11.5 $2.8m
Laguna Beach 365 43 8.5 11.0 $3.9m
Newport Beach 592 73 8.1 11.1 $2.4m
Newport Coast 157 21 7.5 5.2 $4.1m
Coto De Caza 119 16 7.4 7.4 $2.4m

More stats from Altera Real Estate HERE!

  • Lansner on Real Estate’s most-popular October postings …
  1. 16 OC hotels in deep financial distress
  2. Corona del Mar home on TV’s ‘Million Dollar’ show
  3. OC renters enjoy 3rd biggest US rent cuts
  4. Investor loses $50 million on Santa Ana office tower
  5. Hear why this guy saw home-price crash coming
  6. OC sent 60,000+ erroneous property tax bills
  7. $3 million price cut sells TV-featured OC mansion
  8. Top Calif. home price gains in 3 OC cities
  9. $38 million bay-view home is 2nd priciest OC listing
  10. Calif. house prices projected to jump 7.9%
  11. OC builder gets $206 million loan from Neverland savior
  12. UCLA sees 16% OC home-price gain in 2010

Posted in: Inventory • Top tale • • | 5 Comments »

Shrinking real estate: 57% fewer O.C. homes to buy

November 3rd, 2009, 12:20 pm by Jeff Collins
click to enlarge

click to enlarge

The number of homes listed for sale continues to drop, decreasing by 174 listings over the past two weeks (down 2%). That brings the new total to 7,749 listings as of Thursday, according to Aliso Viejo broker Steve Thomas.

  • The last time the Orange County housing market was this small: January 2006, when the slump was just getting started.
  • Last week’s listings are down 39% from a year ago, when there were 12,790 homes for sale; and it’s down 57% from the peak (17,898 listings in September 2007).
  • In addition, 3,166 new deals were signed in October, Thomas reported. That reflects a seasonal dip from this year’s selling peak of more than 3,600 new deals a month last spring.

Said Thomas:

“There is very little fresh, new inventory. The lower the range, the “spookier” it gets. Properties that are priced right and in great condition are flying off of the market with multiple offers and tremendous activity. Buyers new to the market are dumbfounded by all of the competition. Their expectations are of doom and gloom and the ability to “cherry pick” whatever home they are interested in AND at a discount. Yet, just about every agent has pockets filled with buyers who want to buy but have been unable to purchase after losing out on property after property.”

Thomas also calculates a “market time” benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS at the current pace of deal making. By Thomas’ logic: Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in: Inventory • Seeking a bottom • Selling patterns • Top tale • • • | 51 Comments »

15% price cuts move million-dollar O.C. homes

October 19th, 2009, 2:00 am by Jon Lansner

The latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo says …

As is customary, the higher the range, the slower the market. In this downturn it is even more pronounced. The sales to list price ratio in the upper range is 92%. That takes into account the LAST list price after many price reductions. The sales to ORIGINAL list price ratio is 85%. This vast discrepancy is due to unrealistic expectations on the part of sellers within the higher ranges and illustrates the need to carefully price a home based upon recent sales activity, 90 days or sooner is preferable, and all pending activity. Sellers in the upper ranges should not fall into the trap of giving too much weight to active listings. In this market, a buyer is not going to take into consideration another active listing that has sat on the market for months in coming up with an offering price. Appraisers are not going to give active listings much credence either.

Thomas calculates a “market time” benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. By this Thomas logic, it would take:

  • 2.48 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 2.42 months two weeks vs. 4.76 months a year ago vs. 15.11 two years ago.
  • Homes listed for under a million bucks have a market time of 1.88 months vs. 10.37 months for homes listed for more than $1 million.

Here’s the data, as of last Thursday, for listings; deals pending; market time in months; last Thursday vs. 2 weeks ago, a year ago and 2 years ago (Note: k=thousand; m=million) …

SLICE Listings Deals Time (mos.) 2 wks. ago 1 yr. ago 2 yr. ago
•$0-$250k 1,134 660 1.72 1.58 3.43 12.87
•$250k-$500k 1,994 1408 1.42 1.35 3.43 12.87
•$500k-$750k 1,577 681 2.32 2.28 4.83 16.44
•$750k-$1m 943 251 3.76 4.09 8.27 14.24
•$1m-$1.5m 808 125 6.46 6.45 11.11 15.99
•$1.5m-$2m 468 54 8.67 10.25 21.89 17.88
•$2m-4m 698 36 19.39 20.41 22.42 25.09
•$4m+ 380 12 31.67 32.17 34.30 31.63
All O.C. 7,923 3,197 2.48 2.42 4.76 15.11

Coverage of other data reports from Altera ARE HERE!

Posted in: Inventory • Luxury homes • Top tale • • | 97 Comments »

Hardest O.C. city to find a home? Aliso Viejo!

October 18th, 2009, 4:41 pm by Jon Lansner

The latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo says that as of October 15 …

  • The “hottest” O.C. market in terms of “market time” (supply of homes for sale vs. new purchase deals inked in past month) is Aliso Viejo. With a market time of 1.2 months to theoretically sells all for-sale homes at the current buying pace, it’s O.C.’s theoretical hardest place to find a home to buy.
  • “Coldest” market is Corona Del Mar at 16.3 months to theoretically sells all for-sale homes at the current buying pace, it’s the O.C.’s theoretical hardest place to sell a home.

Here’s at look at the 5 hottest and 5 coldest markets in O.C. as of last Thursday (supply for sale; new deals made; market time in months vs. a year ago and average listing price) by Thomas’ market time math:

Hottest Supply Deals Mon. Yr. ago Price
Aliso Viejo 106 88 1.2 0.9 $461k
Rancho Santa Marg. 102 81 1.3 1.1 $415k
Anaheim 316 245 1.3 1.1 $374k
Foothill Ranch 38 29 1.3 1.7 $525k
Lake Forest 90 68 1.3 1.1 $502k
County Supply Deals Mon. Yr. ago Price
All of O.C. 7,923 3,197 2.5 2.3 $1.2m
Coolest Supply Deals Mon. Yr. ago Price
Corona Del Mar 195 12 16.3 10.8 $2.8m
Laguna Beach 371 36 10.3 10.3 $4.0m
Newport Beach 619 66 9.4 9.4 $2.5m
Coto De Caza 122 14 8.7 6.3 $2.3m
Newport Coast 158 25 6.3 6.9 $3.9m

More stats from Altera Real Estate HERE!

Posted in: Inventory • Top tale • • • | 69 Comments »

O.C. homes for sale drop 33% this year

October 5th, 2009, 8:20 am by Jon Lansner

The latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo says …

Active listing inventory has dropped below 8,000 for the first time since the beginning of January 2006, and now sits at 7,917. That’s a 2% drop in just two weeks. We started the year with an inventory of 11,842 and have dropped 33% since. Last year the inventory was at 12,940, 5,023 additional homes.

Thomas calculates a “market time” benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. By this Thomas logic, it would take:

  • 2.42 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 2.33 months two weeks vs. 4.55 months a year ago vs. 15.96 two years ago.
  • Homes listed for under a million bucks have a market time of 1.83 months vs. 10.84 months for homes listed for more than $1 million.

For info on distressed properties visit Mortgage Insider.

Here’s the data, as of last Thursday, for listings; deals pending; market time in months; last Thursday vs. 2 weeks ago, a year ago and 2 years ago (Note: k=thousand; m=million) …

Slice List Deal Time (mos.) 2 wks. ago 1 yr. ago 2 yr. ago
•$0-$250k 1,117 707 1.58 1.60 3.40 13.65
•$250k-$500k 1,942 1436 1.35 1.30 3.40 13.65
•$500k-$750k 1,571 690 2.28 2.03 4.47 15.64
•$750k-$1m 977 239 4.09 4.09 4.37 15.88
•$1m-$1.5m 813 126 6.45 6.28 9.14 22.56
•$1.5m-$2m 492 48 10.25 9.98 17.54 17.77
•$2m-4m 694 34 20.41 18.97 17.07 26.06
•$4m+ 386 12 32.17 36.91 57.33 23.91
All O.C. 7,917 3,270 2.42 2.33 4.55 15.96

Coverage of other data reports from Altera IS HERE!

August’s most-read posts on this blog …

  1. 21 years until housing beats its old peak?
  2. What $320,000 buys — in Newport Beach
  3. Largest California home-price gains in 5 OC cities
  4. California has nation’s highest mortgage burdens
  5. Hear why homebuying burst could be short-lived
  6. Mogul’s home sells at $2 million discount
  7. California ranks 14th for moving-van exits
  8. OC luxury condo developer in bankruptcy
  9. Where do homes sell in less than a month?
  10. Same OC city is best, worst for home-price cuts
  11. Investors driving up OC home sales
  12. Developer owned by Bren’s son files bankrupt

Posted in: Inventory • Top tale • • | 143 Comments »

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