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Lansner on Real Estate ~ The latest news about the housing market from Orange County Register columnist Jon Lansner.

Archive for the 'Home prices' Category

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O.C. housing gets ‘riskiest’ ranking

November 12th, 2009, 12:20 am by Jon Lansner

$3.7 millionNew report from mortgage insurer PMI Group on potential home-price stability in major U.S. markets lists Orange County as tied for having the highest risk of future home value depreciation.

PMI uses various economic and real estate factors — from employment to pricing trends to broad business climate trends — to compare various markets. So PMI’s study tracking the 50 largest U.S. metro areas puts Orange County real estate in a noteworthy, national perspective …

  • Risk? 99.9% chance of home prices falling in next two years. That score tied Orange County with eight other markets for the the crown of “nation’s riskiest!”
  • OK. You ask … “The other 8?” Nearby Inland Empire and LA; an I-15 drive away, Vegas; and 5 Florida markets (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, Jacksonville and Orlando!)
  • Pricing? Orange County values fell at a 7.81% annual rate in Q2, that’s 14 percentage points better than Q1. That’s the biggest improvement among the top 50 markets tracked by PMI.
  • Affordability? Orange County buyers found a harsher market, by PMI’s math, in Q2 vs. Q1 as local affordability ran 19% below the top market’s average.
  • Jobs? Orange County unemployment was not helping as Q2 local joblessness (8.8%) was 3.7 percentage points above the 5-year average. Top markets average ran 3 percentage points above their respective 5-year trend.

And nationwide? PMI concludes …

  • “Appears that risk may be close to peaking.”
  • Risk increased in just 55% of all-size markets tracked (384.)
  • Average risk rose to 51.6% from 50.3%, an increase much smaller than in previous quarters.
  • Of the 50 largest markets, 19 were in the moderate, low, or minimal risk categories.
  • Markets in California, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona continued with high risk as did markets with high unemployment (such as Detroit.)

Big real estate woes:

Posted in: O.C. vs. elsewhere • Outlooks • • | 119 Comments »

Western housing rebound trails U.S. recovery

November 11th, 2009, 12:02 am by Jon Lansner

blog-cc-mapnational1109There may be a modest housing recovery going on in the West, but it pales to the rest of the nation. At least, by Clear Capital’s math. These real estate trackers’ most recent report — data through October 25 — shows …

  • Home price in the West up 2.1% in the last 3 months vs. the previous same period, smallest gain of Clear Capital’s 4 slices of the nation. (U.S. gain in the period? 3.7%)
  • Same trend when looking at past 6 months vs. previous half year: West up 3.3%, lowest of the 4 slices and below the 9.1% national gain.
  • As for year-over-year, no surprise: West trailed the pack … down 14% — worst of the foursome — and trailing the national 8.4% decline.
  • All the regional numbers are in the map at right!

Says Alex Villacorta of Clear Capital. “As we’ve seen since the spring season, many markets have returned to traditional seasonal fluctuations and the strong summer gains are showing signs of slowing. … The continued decline in REO (foreclosure) saturation rates, as well as an increase in the proportion of cash buyers in both distressed and fair market sales, are an encouraging sign of investor optimism coming into the traditionally slow months.”

Real estate outlooks:

Posted in: Home prices • • | 8 Comments »

Beach town home sales up 27%

November 8th, 2009, 4:30 pm by Jon Lansner

For the 22 business days ending Oct. 16 – fresh from DataQuick — A region-by-region analysis of homebuying shows Orange County slices up geographically speaking this way …

  • DataQuick identified 506 homes selling in beach cities’ ZIP codes last month, +27% from a year ago. Median selling price? $693,500 in these 17 ZIPs. Last month’s median price change was -6.3% vs. a year ago.
  • South inland ZIPs — median selling price $516,250 – had 830 sales, +20% from a year ago. In these 19 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was +3.6% vs. a year ago.
  • North inland ZIPs — median selling price $455,000 – had 799 sales, +11% from a year ago. In these 23 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was -4.6% vs. a year ago.
  • Mid-county ZIPs — median selling price $351,000 – had 909 sales, -8% from a year ago. In these 24 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was -1.3% vs. a year ago.
  • All told, countywide sales were +5% vs. a year ago. The median selling price was +4% in the past year.

How did your neighborhood fare? Check our ZIP-by-ZIP data HERE!

Other real estate trends:

Posted in: Home prices • Local-Local • Luxury homes • • • | 42 Comments »

O.C. home pricing near longest rise in 4 years

November 6th, 2009, 10:05 am by Jon Lansner
For the 22 business days ending Oct. 16
Slice Price Yr. ago Sales Yr. ago
Houses $495,000 +4.2% 2,018 +5.7%
Condos $308,500 +4.6% 917 +8.8%
New $500,000 +3.1% 168 -19.6%
All O.C. $435,000 +3.6% 3,103 +4.8%

For the 22 business days ending Oct. 16 – DataQuick’s latest homebuying report — Orange County saw …

  • $435,000 median selling price that is $6,000 above September (+1.4%) and would mark the 6th consecutive month of price gains — longest winning streak since 7 up months ended Aug. 2005.
  • Price is +3.6% vs. a year ago and -33% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000.
  • The most recent median is 18% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — a current bottom that was -43% below the peak.
  • Prices fell on a year-over-year basis from Sept. 2007 through August. (Worst at -31.5% in August 2008.)
  • Single-family homes resell for 33% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while condos sell 34% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 42% below their February ‘05 top.
  • In this most recent period, O.C. shoppers bought 3,103 residences — that is +4.8% vs. year-ago buying activity. (From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.)
  • September was 15th straight month of sales gains vs. the year-ago period. That follows 33 consecutive months where sales failed to beat the previous year’s pace.

How did your neighborhood fare? Check our ZIP-by-ZIP data HERE!

“Other real estate trends:
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Posted in: DataQuick reports • Top tale • • • | 96 Comments »

Pac 10 has priciest college-town housing

November 6th, 2009, 2:00 am by Jon Lansner
Akron vs. Ohio

Coldwell Banker Real Estate every fall has a little fun with the real estate data, digging into the numbers to create its “College Home Price Comparison Index” to track comparative house-buying costs in various college towns in big-time football leagues. Benchmark residence for the study is a single-family, 2,200 square-foot house with four bedrooms, two and one-half baths.

The Pac 10 conference — home to USC and UCLA football — had the priciest housing. Here’s the rankings, sliced by the major conferences, based on the average selling price this year …

  1. Mid American: $182,322
  2. Conference USA: $210,882
  3. SEC: $222,479
  4. Big East: $237,366
  5. Sun Belt: $242,213
  6. Big 12: $244,431
  7. Mountain West: $251,876
  8. Big 10: $279,787
  9. WAC: $356,528
  10. ACC: $378,062
  11. Independent: $411,444
  12. Pac 10: $747,180

Other findings …

  • Cheapest college town? Akron, Ohio (U. of Akron) with a typical cost of target home was $121,885.
  • Priciest? Palo Alto (Stanford U.) at $1.49 million.
  • 2nd priciest? LA (UCLA and USC) at $1.35 million.

Real estate trends:

Posted in: Home prices • • • | 11 Comments »

O.C. median home price up $60,000 off bottom

October 30th, 2009, 11:10 am by Jon Lansner
For 22 business days ending Oct. 13
Slice Price Yr. ago Sales Yr. ago
Houses $495,000 +4.2% 1,841 +3.0%
Condos $304,000 +3.1% 845 +8.1%
New $500,000 +4.2% 150 -25.7%
All O.C. $430,000 +2.4% 2,836 +2.3%

For the 22 business days ending Oct. 13 – DataQuick’s latest homebuying report — Orange County saw …

  • $430,000 median selling price that is +2.4% vs. a year ago and -33% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000.
  • The most recent median is $60,000 (+16%) above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — a current bottom that was -43% below the peak.
  • Prices fell on a year-over-year basis from Sept. 2007 through August. (Worst at -31.5% in August 2008.)
  • Single-family homes resell for 33% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while condos sell 35% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 42% below their February ‘05 top.
  • In this most recent period, O.C. shoppers bought 2,836 residences — that is +2.3% vs. year-ago buying activity. (From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.)
  • September was 15th straight month of sales gains vs. the year-ago period. That follows 33 consecutive months where sales failed to beat the previous year’s pace.

How did your neighborhood fare? Check our ZIP-by-ZIP data HERE!

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Other real estate trends:

Posted in: DataQuick reports • Top tale • • | 86 Comments »

Can O.C. home prices jump 16% next year?

October 29th, 2009, 9:39 am by Jon Lansner

It’s outlook season, where various economists, gurus, trade groups and computer models make their guestimates of what local home prices may do for next year. Here’s a sampling of what we’ve covered in recent weeks:

OK. Your time to guess …

2010 O.C. home pricing will be ...
View Results

Real estate news:

Posted in: Home prices • Polls • | 47 Comments »

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