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Lansner on Real Estate ~ The latest news about the housing market from Orange County Register columnist Jon Lansner.

Archive for the 'Home prices' Category

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Owners too upbeat on home values. And you?

November 19th, 2009, 12:00 pm by Marilyn Kalfus, real estate reporter

Homeowners in the West are the least realistic in the U.S. about their own home’s values, with 28% believing they went up in the past year, Zillow’s quarterly Homeowner Confidence Survey shows. In reality, just 17% of homes in the region  increased in value.

Perceptions vs. reality U.S. No. E. Mid W. South West
Home value decreased 49% 51% 52% 45% 53%
Home value same 26% 29% 25% 28% 19%
Home value increased 25% 20% 23% 27% 28%
%homes decreased 72% 61% 72% 73% 78%
%homes same 6% 8% 6% 6% 5%
%homes increased 22% 31% 22% 22% 17%
Q3 ‘09 “Misperception” 10 -6 8 15 17
Q2 ‘09 “Misperception” 13 10 10 18 7
Q3 ‘08 “Misperception” 16 20 15 13 13
Value will decrease 17% 17% 18% 16% 15%
Value will stay same 43% 44% 38% 44% 44%
Value will increase 41% 40% 43% 39% 41%

Other highlights of the full report (FULL COPY HERE) …

  • Nationally, fewer than half  — 49% –  believe their home’s value decreased over the past 12 months. Actually, 72% went down.
  • U.S. homeowners were  more optimistic about the future of their own homes’ values than at any time in the past 6 quarters.
  • A full 41% say their own home’s value will increase in the next 6 months. An additional 43% say their home’s value will remain the same, with just 17% saying their home’s value will decrease.

“Consistent with all previous surveys, homeowners also seem to be overly optimistic about future home values,” said said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries. “While we have definitely seen some stabilization in recent months, there is a high likelihood that home values will see further declines driven by an increasing number of foreclosures coming into the market and, possibly, rising interest rates after the first quarter of next year.”

Let’s take our own poll.

My home's value will:
View Results

Other tales by Marilyn Kalfus:

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Posted in: Home prices • Polls • • | 7 Comments »

SoCal rent costs fall, 1st dip in 14 years

November 19th, 2009, 7:10 am by Jon Lansner

Renting costs in Southern California fell at an annual rate for the first time in 14 years, according to the freshest Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index.

Local renters’ costs fell 0.1% last month vs. October 2008. Last such SoCal decline? A similar size drop in November 1995.

Renters weren’t the only housing winners in the CPI report:

  • Homeowners equivalent inflation rate (purchase costs not included), fell at an 0.7% annual rate in October. That’s biggest SoCal drop since June 1995.
  • Household energy costs in SoCal fell at an 0.7% annual rate in October.Actually, that’s the smallest drop in a string of declines that dates to last November.
  • Household furnishings and operations fell at an 2.5% annual rate in October. That’s biggest SoCal drop since April 2008.
  • Overall, SoCal housing inflation fell at an 0.6% annual rate in October — fourth consecutive drop and biggest since June 1983.
  • As for the big picture, SoCal total inflation rate for all goods and services fell at an 0.4% annual rate in October. It’s the eighth consecutive drop — but that smallest in that string.

Rental trends:

Posted in: Apartments/Rents • Housing inflation • • • | 20 Comments »

Smallest SoCal home-price loss in 2 years

November 17th, 2009, 12:03 pm by Jeff Collins

MDA DataQuick reported today that Southern California home prices continued to increase in October over the month before, rising $5,000 to $280,000.

County Median price Vs. 2008 Sales Vs. 2008
Los Angeles $325,000 -8.5% 7,409 8.6%
Orange $436,500 3.9% 2,800 -1.2%
Riverside $190,000 -17.4% 4,197 -9.1%
San Bernardino $150,000 -25.0% 3,176 11.2%
San Diego $325,000 0.5% 3,671 2.0%
Ventura $365,000 -2.7% 879 9.6%
SoCal $280,000 -6.7% 22,132 2.8%

The gains were driven mainly by monthly price jumps in just two of the six counties in the region: Orange and Riverside.

On an annual basis, the median SoCal price was down 6.7%, but DataQuick reported that that was the smallest drop in two years.

Sales picked up, too, with monthly gains reported in four of the six counties. The counties with monthly price gains – Orange and Riverside – also had monthly sales drops.

DataQuick credited government intervention for playing “a huge role in stabilizing and, to some extent, reinvigorating the housing market.”

Increased FHA lending, tax credits and political pressure on lenders to reduce foreclosures helped ease the housing slump, DataQuick said. Whether those gains will continue after federal support is reduced in a year is still open to debate, the housing research firm reported.

Other real estate trends:

Posted in: Home prices • • • | 8 Comments »

15-month O.C. homebuying surge ends

November 17th, 2009, 9:48 am by Jon Lansner

Have local homes prices gotten ahead of Orange County real estate shoppers’ wallets?
For October – DataQuick’s latest homebuying report — Orange County saw …

_

WHERE DID THEY BUY IN OCTOBER?
(Click image for details!)
$335,000

$335,000

$500,000

$500,000

$1,130,000

$1,130,000

  • Shoppers bought 2,800 residences — that is -1.2% vs. year-ago buying activity. (From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.)
  • That ends a 15-month streak of sales year-over-year gains after 33 consecutive months where sales failed to beat the previous year’s pace.
  • Why? Relative bargains are hard to find. October’s $436,500 median selling price, highest since August 2008 and +3.9% vs. a year ago.
  • Second consecutive month of year-over-year pricing gains.
  • The most recent median is also 18% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000!
  • Prices have now risen month-to-month for 6 straight times — longest streak since 7 months ended August 2005.
  • 25 O.C. ZIPs have both price AND sales gains.
  • Yes, current pricing is 32% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000. And the January bottom was -43% below the peak.
  • Prices fell on a year-over-year basis from Sept. 2007 through August. (Worst at -31.5% in August 2008.)
  • Single-family homes resell for 33% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while condos sell 33% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 35% below their February ‘05 top.
For October
Slice Price Yr. ago Sales Yr. ago
Houses $489,000 +1.9% 1,831 +0.1%
Condos $317,000 +7.5% 817 +0.0%
New $564,450 +15.4% 152 -18.7%
All O.C. $436,500 +3.9% 2,800 -1.2%

Real estate outlooks:

Posted in: DataQuick reports • Selling patterns • • | 53 Comments »

Would you relocate O.C. to Nashville?

November 14th, 2009, 4:00 pm by Jon Lansner

nashville1The Register’s Mary Ann Milbourn reports that Lennox Hearth Products, a fireplace maker in Orange, will cut 71 local positions — but is offering some of employees the chance to relocate to Lennox operations Tennessee around Nashville.

So would you make the move? We don’t know what a spouse, child, significant other or various relationships might suggest, but we know what your wallet would think long and hard about it!

We quickly noticed that the housing market back there was perking up! Nashville Business Journal reports that Nashville home sales are climbing for the first time in three years as the median selling price for a single-family was … gulp! … $160,000. Psst! It’s a half-million here!

Then we went to Money magazine’s “How far will my salary go in another city?” city-cost calculator and got these results …

  • $50,000 of salary in O.C. equals $30,554 in Nashville
  • Nashville groceries will cost 9% less vs. O.C.
  • Nashville housing will cost 71% less
  • Nashville utilities will cost 4% more
  • Nashville transportation will cost 14%less
  • Nashville healthcare will cost 21% less

Just to be sure, we checked in with Sperling’s Best Places comparison tool and got …

  • A salary of $50,000 in Orange, Calif., equals $30,155 in Nashville
  • Nashville 40% cheaper than Orange.
  • Housing is the biggest factor in the cost of living difference. Housing is 62% cheaper in Nashville.

Imagine if you have to make the call …

Relocate to Nashville?
View Results

Posted in: Demographics • O.C. vs. elsewhere • Polls • Top tale • • | 114 Comments »

Best homebuying October in 4 years?

November 13th, 2009, 12:25 am by Jon Lansner

October may not been so spooky for local real estate. For the 22 business days ending Oct. 22 – DataQuick’s latest homebuying report — Orange County saw as the end of month neared …

22 days ending Oct. 22
Slice Price Yr. ago Sales Yr. ago
Houses $495,000 +3.6% 2,001 +10.4%
Condos $310,000 +8.8% 905 +10.2%
New $505,750 +4.4% 176 -6.9%
All O.C. $435,000 +4.8% 3,082 +9.2%
  • Shoppers bought 3,082 residences — that is +9.2% vs. year-ago buying activity. (From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.)
  • Assuming the month finished at the last reported sale space, this would be the most active October for local homebuying since 2005!
  • September was 15th straight month of sales gains vs. the year-ago period. That follows 33 consecutive months where sales failed to beat the previous year’s pace.
  • In this most recent period, O.C.’s $435,000 median selling price is +4.8% vs. a year ago … yet 33% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000.
  • The most recent median is 18% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — a current bottom that was -43% below the peak.
  • Prices fell on a year-over-year basis from Sept. 2007 through August. (Worst at -31.5% in August 2008.)
  • Single-family homes resell for 33% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while condos sell 34% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 41% below their February ‘05 top.

Other real estate trends:

Posted in: DataQuick reports • Selling patterns • • • | 145 Comments »

O.C. housing gets ‘riskiest’ ranking

November 12th, 2009, 12:20 am by Jon Lansner

$3.7 millionNew report from mortgage insurer PMI Group on potential home-price stability in major U.S. markets lists Orange County as tied for having the highest risk of future home value depreciation.

PMI uses various economic and real estate factors — from employment to pricing trends to broad business climate trends — to compare various markets. So PMI’s study tracking the 50 largest U.S. metro areas puts Orange County real estate in a noteworthy, national perspective …

  • Risk? 99.9% chance of home prices falling in next two years. That score tied Orange County with eight other markets for the the crown of “nation’s riskiest!”
  • OK. You ask … “The other 8?” Nearby Inland Empire and LA; an I-15 drive away, Vegas; and 5 Florida markets (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, Jacksonville and Orlando!)
  • Pricing? Orange County values fell at a 7.81% annual rate in Q2, that’s 14 percentage points better than Q1. That’s the biggest improvement among the top 50 markets tracked by PMI.
  • Affordability? Orange County buyers found a harsher market, by PMI’s math, in Q2 vs. Q1 as local affordability ran 19% below the top market’s average.
  • Jobs? Orange County unemployment was not helping as Q2 local joblessness (8.8%) was 3.7 percentage points above the 5-year average. Top markets average ran 3 percentage points above their respective 5-year trend.

And nationwide? PMI concludes …

  • “Appears that risk may be close to peaking.”
  • Risk increased in just 55% of all-size markets tracked (384.)
  • Average risk rose to 51.6% from 50.3%, an increase much smaller than in previous quarters.
  • Of the 50 largest markets, 19 were in the moderate, low, or minimal risk categories.
  • Markets in California, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona continued with high risk as did markets with high unemployment (such as Detroit.)

Big real estate woes:

Posted in: O.C. vs. elsewhere • Outlooks • • | 119 Comments »

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