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Lansner on Real Estate ~ The latest news about the housing market from Orange County Register columnist Jon Lansner.

Archive for the 'Polls' Category

Would you relocate to Texas?

February 9th, 2010, 12:01 am by Jon Lansner

The good people at United Van Lines were kind enough to run a count of their moves to and from Orange County in 2009 — and the results had a cowboy attitude and a BBQ taste!

Town Price Index Income Rank
Sherman $90,000 93% $57,900 11
San Angelo $114,000 86% $52,400 37
Wichita Falls $105,000 83% $52,800 59
Fort Worth $133,000 82% $65,900 65
Amarillo $116,000 82% $55,300 66
Victoria $126,000 81% $53,700 72
Beaumont $115,000 79% $54,300 86
Killeen $132,000 79% $54,000 92
Tyler $139,000 77% $55,300 107
Waco $119,000 76% $51,700 111
Odessa $118,000 76% $49,000 115
Abilene $115,000 75% $50,500 119
Austin $183,000 74% $73,300 126
College Station $152,000 73% $56,100 133
Houston $152,000 70% $63,800 154
Dallas $167,000 69% $68,700 156
San Antonio $151,000 69% $57,200 160
Midland $160,000 67% $60,200 170
Corpus Christi $135,000 67% $50,200 172
McAllen $101,000 52% $32,000 206
Laredo $123,000 51% $37,300 208
Brownsville $111,000 49% $32,900 214
El Paso $132,000 47% $39,700 216
OC $411,000 38% $86,100 222

Where did our Orange County neighbors and coworkers go?

  • Texas, 131 United moves out of 1,153 in 2009.
  • Washington, 81
  • Florida, 77
  • Elsewhere in California, 70
  • Illinois, 50
  • New York, 47

Where are our new neighbors from?

  • Texas, 92 out of 1,102
  • Florida, 77
  • Illinois, 68
  • Elsewhere in California, 67
  • Washington, 64
  • New Jersey, 64

Clearly, Texas is the moving van’s most popular stop when the business involves Orange County. And one thing we know Texas offers is housing affordability.

The chart at right shows the Texas results from the third-quarter study by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo Bank of what they call “housing opportunity” — comparing median selling price; the “opportunity index” showing what share of homes bought in a quarter would be “affordable” to the typical local household; regional median household income; and national rank by “opportunity index” out of 232 towns followed. This chart is ranked by affordability index — and you can see where Orange County falls! (Psst! Scroll down!)

Now, Texas isn’t for everybody, but it certainly works for some ex-Orange Countians. Your thoughts?

Would you relocate to Texas?
View Results

Demographic trends:

Does sales burst confirm housing bottom?

February 8th, 2010, 2:15 pm by Jon Lansner

blog-qmark.pngMy latest column for The Register discussed “6 signs of a housing bottom” as seen in year-end, ZIP-by-ZIP Orange County pricing and sales data from DataQuick. You can read the COLUMN HERE!

One stat that caught my eye was that sales momentum was broader than I’d thought “as year-over-year gains were found in 72 of Orange County’s 83 ZIP codes. So the excitement wasn’t just bargain hunters fishing at the low end of the housing pond.”

What do you think?

Does 72 of 83 ZIPs with 2009 sales gains confirm the bottom?
View Results

Most-read stories from the blog from 2009  …

  1. ‘Real Housewife’ takes OC house off market
  2. Tiger Woods’ Newport Beach pad
  3. ‘Real Housewife’ saves Coto home from foreclosure
  4. ‘Real Housewives’ Coto home in default
  5. ‘Housewives’ Ladera home on market as short sale
  6. ‘OC Housewives’ Ladera short sale in escrow
  7. Top agent loses $75 million OC listing
  8. ‘Housewives’ Coto home listed for $5.5 million
  9. Lender takes over St. Regis Resort
  10. Broke actor’s OC cottage unsold at half off
  11. ‘Housewives of OC’ star’s Ladera home for sale
  12. Calif. to take housing debacle’s worst fall
  13. OC furniture mall loses $63 million in value
  14. Foreclosed house draws 135 offers
  15. St. Regis resort reportedly near foreclosure

Are 10% rent hikes coming?

February 1st, 2010, 12:07 am by Jeff Collins

rent-sign-2Right now, rents are dropping as landlords struggle to fill a growing number of empty apartments. In fact, RealFacts reports that O.C. rents fell 6.7% late last year to mid-2006 levels.

But apartment developers warned recently that a shortage of rental units could hit the nation as soon as mid-2011, driving rents up by as much as 10 percent a year.

Several industry experts delivered that warning at a recent gathering of the National Association of Home Builders. According to the NAHB:

  • Tight credit is hampering efforts to start new rental housing construction, which takes about two to three years to complete.
  • A large number of “Generation Y” professionals, or professionals born in the mid-1970s or later, are expected to enter the housing market soon, as are other types of newly formed households. Apartments and condos often are the most attractive form of housing for this group.
  • Industry experts expect the number of tenants to outstrip the supply of rental units by mid-2011, with increasing shortages through 2014.
  • This shortage likely will increase rents by as much as 8% to 10% per year in 2011 and 2012 and by 4% to 7% per year through 2015.

The NAHB quoted Michael Costa, president and CEO of Southern California-based MacFarlane Costa Housing Partners, said his company’s developments have dwindled from 30 to 35 a year to just four a year in 2009 and 2010. Said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe:

“We desperately need lenders to begin financing apartment communities again. The vacancy rate for apartments is elevated now, but as the economy recovers and jobs return, the people who’ve been doubling up with relatives and friends will want a place of their own, there there may not be one available.”

What do you think?

Do you believe there will be an apartment shortage as soon as 2011?
View Results

Related news:

Fed keeps rates low. Agree?

January 27th, 2010, 11:20 am by Jon Lansner

federal-reserve-board-of-governors-sealFed did essentially nothing again today, keeping the interest rates it controls near zero, while citing trends such as …

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software appears to be picking up, but investment in structures is still contracting and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Firms have brought inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

Do you support the Fed's easy-money tactics?
View Results

Interesting sidelight: U.S. One-Month Bill Rate Negative for First Time Since March (Bloomberg)
Real estate trends:

Is remodeling slump over?

January 24th, 2010, 4:00 pm by Jon Lansner
Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University says home-improvement spending nationwide “is likely to reach a cyclical bottom in the current quarter and steadily increase through 2010.”

  • Harvard’s remodeling index projects that $103 billion will be spent by Americans this quarter on sprucing up their real estate. That’s 29% below the cycle’s quarterly peak set in Q2 2007.
  • Current estimating spending is 12% below a year ago. Harvard expects the annualized rate of decline to fall to 3.1% by Q3.
  • Harvard’s Nicolas Retsinas: “With signs of stabilization in the national economy, homeowners are once again planning home improvement projects.”
  • Harvard’s Kermit Baker: “Financing costs are also favorable, although credit availability remains tight for many households.”
The remodeling business will bottom ...
View Results

Real estate trends:

Do you see a housing bottom?

January 2nd, 2010, 4:00 pm by Jon Lansner
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If pictures say a thousand words, then what is the power of the classic chart?

Here’s some graphical handiwork of Register artist Brian Moore. He’s detailing Orange County homebuying pricing and sales trends — more recent, by month; and historic to 1988, by year — from DataQuick.

Please, click on the charts for larger views!

Look carefully. Do you see a market bottom forming for local real estate? Do these charts say anything about Orange County real estate’s future?

To help you decide, here’s some of our recent Eyeball ‘10 forecast Q&As we’ve published …

And, to help build your opinion, here’s some recent news that is hinting at a market bottom …

OK. We’ve had our say. Now it’s your turn to pontificate on Orange County homebuying. What do you see in these charts?

Did O.C. housing hit bottom in 2009?
View Results

Vote! Home prices: Up or down next year?

December 18th, 2009, 12:30 pm by Jon Lansner

eyeball2010-logoLast year at this time, we asked simple question, “O.C. median price in 2009 …?” Here’s the results we got:

  • Up 10%+: 335 (17% of all votes)
  • Up 3% to 10%: 65 (3% of all votes)
  • Flat (+3% to -3%): 183 (9% of all votes)
  • Down 3% to 10%: 369 (18% of all votes)
  • Down 10%+: 1077 (53% of all votes)

It was all part of our “Eyeball ‘09″ series of outlook Q&As with local market watchers. (FYI: Our “Eyeball ‘10″ starts Tuesday, by the way!)

As we can see above, our crew had a decidedly downcast view of the world at that time. Was that correct? Well … depending on how you count:

OK. We will be specific this time around …

For 2010, Orange County's median selling price (DataQuick) will be ...
View Results

Finally, here some background! Links to our old “Eyeball” Q&A series …