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Lansner on Real Estate ~ The latest news about the housing market from Orange County Register columnist Jon Lansner.

Archive for the 'O.C. Zippy rankings' Category

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O.C. housing zip is at the beach

November 26th, 2009, 10:00 am by Jon Lansner

Orange County’s beach-close communities have the most zip, according to our Zippy rankings for 2009’s third quarter.

Average Zippy rank
Slice Overall Pricing Sales Foreclosure
Beach 28.3 48.4 32.5 20.4
South inland 39.9 35.8 42.9 43.3
North inland 39.3 37.0 43.0 40.4
Mid-county 55.3 47.2 47.1 57.8

Zippy rankings are our tally of 3 key home-market performance benchmarks from DataQuick: Pricing and sales momentum (year-over-year change) plus foreclosure density (per homes in neighborhood). Thus, on a regional basis — slicing the county into four parts — Zippy tells us …

  • The 19 beachside ZIPs had the strongest sales momentum and relatively fewest foreclosure problems.
  • The 23 North Inland ZIP codes just missed having the best pricing momentum. This region was home to the county’s strongest neighborhood market: Los Alamitos.
  • The 19 ZIP codes comprising South Inland communities had the most pricing momentum.
  • The 24 mid-county ZIPs had the worst overall rankings.

Posted in: O.C. Zippy rankings • Selling patterns • • | 2 Comments »

Newport Beach most improved home market

November 25th, 2009, 10:00 am by Jon Lansner

newport-beachHousing markets in four Newport Beach ZIPs enjoyed Orange County’s biggest improvement in their Zippy market-strength rankings in the third quarter.

Our Zippy rankings measured Orange County neighborhood housing markets by pricing and sales momentum plus foreclosure frequency as measured by DataQuick stats. We track market progress by quarter-to-quarter change in Zippy ranking.

Newport Beach 92663 had the biggest gain, up 74 spots to 4th place in the third-quarter Zippy rankings. The four Newport gainers by no means suggests that there was something magical about seaside property in the past quarter. Dana Point’s two ZIP codes could be found among the 10 Zips with the biggest declines in Zippy rankings.

It seems that price was more a key factor in how the third quarter played out in the local housing market as measured by the Zippy rankings.

The 25 Zips with the greatest improvement in Zippy rankings had a median selling price of $555,000. The Bottom 25, in terms of quarter-to-quarter change in Zippy rankings, had a median selling price of $430,000.

Here’s a look at the 10 ZIPs with biggest advancement and decline in their respective Zippy rankings between Q2 and Q3 …

ADVANCING DECLINING
Rank Move Town ZIP Price -- Rank Move Town ZIP Price
4 +74 Newport B. 92663 $1,075,000 49 -37 Orange 92865 $430,000
3 +64 Corona dM 92625 $1,470,000 57 -37 Irvine 92612 $450,000
9 +55 Newport B. 92662 $1,741,000 70 -37 Anaheim 92802 $315,000
14 +55 Garden Grove 92845 $466,000 72 -37 Fullerton 92831 $392,500
16 +50 Laguna Niguel 92677 $530,500 81 -38 Santa Ana 92701 $130,000
17 +47 Fullerton 92835 $555,000 44 -41 Irvine 92602 $640,000
30 +47 Brea 92823 $655,000 45 -43 Dana Point 92624 $500,000
43 +38 Np’t Coast 92657 $1,450,000 64 -59 Irvine 92603 $725,000
21 +34 Irvine 92620 $582,500 78 -60 Garden Grove 92840 $325,750
39 +33 Foothill Ranch 92610 $480,000 74 -67 Dana Point 92629 $587,500

PS: What’s a Zippy?

  • WHO? Columnist Jon Lansner’s ranking of O.C.’s 83 ZIP codes.
  • WHAT? Tally of 3 key home-market performance benchmarks: Pricing and sales momentum (year-over-year change) plus foreclosure density (per homes in neighborhood).
  • WHY? All rankings need a nickname, thus, “Zippys.”
  • HOW? Using DataQuick data for most recent quarter we rank the 83 ZIPs by price, sales and foreclosure — then determine overall ranking by each ZIP’s average ranking.

Posted in: O.C. Zippy rankings • Selling patterns • • • | 8 Comments »

Zippiest O.C. home market? Los Alamitos

November 24th, 2009, 10:00 am by Jon Lansner

Los Alamitos 90720 had Orange County’s zippiest housing market in the third quarter.

WHAT’S A ZIPPY?
• WHO? Columnist Jon Lansner’s ranking of O.C.’s 83 ZIP codes.
• WHAT? Tally of 3 key home-market performance benchmarks: Pricing and sales momentum (year-over-year change) plus foreclosure density (per homes in neighborhood).
• WHY? All rankings need a nickname, thus, “Zippys.”
• HOW? Using DataQuick data for most recent quarter we rank the 83 ZIPs by price, sales and foreclosure — then determine overall ranking by each ZIP’s average ranking.

So says our Zippy rankings that weigh pricing and sales momentum plus foreclosure frequency as measured by DataQuick stats.

How’d Los Al win? This ZIP ranked 21 of 83 O.C. ZIPs for pricing; 5th for sales; and 6th in terms of foreclosures frequency in the community. In the previous quarter, this ZIP ranked by Zippy 27 out of 83 overall.

[ Weakest home markets? CLICK TO SEE ]

Second strongest town, by Zippy math, was Irvine 92618; followed by Corona del Mar 92625 as third best.

When you look at the 83 major ZIPs in the county and their Zippy rankings, you see these noteworthy trends for the best-performing communities:

  • The Zippy Top 25 had a median selling price of $560,000 – that’s +24% vs. the middle of the pack. Curiously, in a discount era — strength at the top.
  • Price momentum of the Top 25 — activity vs. a year ago — was -4% compared to -6% for the Zippy middle of the pack. Surprisingly “near average” for leaders.
  • Sales momentum of the Top 25 — activity vs. a year ago — was +25% compared to -4% for the middle of the pack. The higher-priced market is, if nothing else, relatively active.
  • Foreclosures occurred in the Zippy Top 25 ZIP at a rate of 6.4 homes per 1,000 vs. 9.8 for the middle of the pack. Loan problems are still heaviest in the lower slices of the market.
  • BUT foreclosures momentum in the Top 25 ZIP — change vs. a year ago — was +51% compared to 38% for the middle of the pack. Clearly, a warning sign.

Here’s last quarter’s 10 zippiest ZIPs, as measured by Zippy math, and their respective rankings (1 best; 83 worst) in terms of pricing and sales momentum and foreclosure frequency.

Rank Prev. Town ZIP Price Price rank Sales rank FC rank
1 27 Los Alamitos 90720 $720,000 21 5 6
2 22 Irvine 92618 $508,000 14 16 18
3 67 Corona del Mar 92625 $1,470,000 43 3 5
4 78 Newport Beach 92663 $1,075,000 18 14 19
5 22 Orange 92866 $432,500 5 30 17
6 38 La Palma 90623 $549,500 6 43 11
7 26 Costa Mesa 92627 $494,000 11 6 44
8 4 Huntington Beach 92646 $530,000 9 48 8
9 64 Newport Beach 92662 $1,741,000 58 4 3
10 1 Seal Beach 90740 $706,000 12 55 4

Posted in: O.C. Zippy rankings • Selling patterns • • • | 3 Comments »

Weakest home market in O.C.? Garden Grove

November 23rd, 2009, 9:57 am by Jon Lansner

Garden Grove 92844 had Orange County’s weakest housing market in the third quarter.

WHAT’S A ZIPPY?
• WHO? Columnist Jon Lansner’s ranking of O.C.’s 83 ZIP codes.
• WHAT? Tally of 3 key home-market performance benchmarks: Pricing and sales momentum (year-over-year change) plus foreclosure density (per homes in neighborhood).
• WHY? All rankings need a nickname, thus, “Zippys.”
• HOW? Using DataQuick data for most recent quarter we rank the 83 ZIPs by price, sales and foreclosure — then determine overall ranking by each ZIP’s average ranking.

And that slice of the city had plenty of local company in our Zippy rankings that weigh pricing and sales momentum plus foreclosure frequency as measured by DataQuick stats.

How’d Garden Grove 92844 do so poorly? It ranked 82nd of 83 for pricing; 67th for sales; and 69th in terms of foreclosures frequency in the community. In the previous quarter, this ZIP ranked 56 of 83 overall. Also ..

  • Second worst Zippy was Rancho Santa Margarita 92688 followed by Santa Ana 92701 as third weakest.
  • Two other Garden Grove ZIPs made the Zippy Bottom 10, too: 92841 and 92840.

TOMORROW: BEST ZIPS!

Some noteworthy trends emerge when you look at the 83 major ZIPs in the county and their Zippy rankings and then ponder the worst-performing communities:

  • Cheap may not be better. The Zippy Bottom 25 had a median selling price of $353,500 – that’s -21% vs. the middle of the pack.
  • Price momentum of the Bottom 25 — activity vs. a year ago — was -13% compared to -6% for the Zippy middle of the pack. Still, lots of discounting at lower end.
  • Sales momentum of the Bottom 25 — activity vs. a year ago was -8% compared to -4% for the middle of the pack. Agents and house shopper complain for a shortage of lower-priced residences for sale, though.
  • Foreclosures occurred in the Bottom 25 ZIP at a rate of 13.4 homes per 1,000 vs. 9.8 for the middle of the pack.
  • However, foreclosures momentum in the Bottom 25 ZIP — change vs. a year ago — was 23% compared to 38% for the middle of the pack. Has the worst of the storm passed for the bottom of the market?

Here’s last quarter’s 10 weakest ZIPs, as measured by Zippy math, and their respective rankings (1 best; 83 worst) in terms of pricing and sales momentum and foreclosure frequency …

Rank Prev. Town ZIP Price Pricing Sales Foreclose
83 56 Garden Grove 92844 $247,500 82 67 69
82 74 Rancho Santa Margarita 92688 $380,000 72 64 79
81 43 Santa Ana 92701 $130,000 83 45 81
80 83 Buena Park 90621 $309,750 69 75 64
79 48 Garden Grove 92841 $353,500 50 83 72
78 18 Garden Grove 92840 $325,750 65 77 62
77 74 La Habra 90631 $300,000 68 78 54
76 80 Anaheim 92808 $485,500 70 73 56
75 52 Santa Ana 92704 $275,000 52 61 78
74 7 Dana Point 92629 $587,500 80 81 28

Posted in: O.C. Zippy rankings • Selling patterns • • • | 12 Comments »

Priciest O.C. housing losing its luster

August 20th, 2009, 2:00 am by Jon Lansner
Period Pricey Middle Cheap
Q4 2008 34 37 55
Q1 2009 31 39 54
Q2 2009 35 31 58

As the second year of the real estate bust finished — remember the price peak was June 2007 — we noticed one subtle change in our own Zippy rankings: the top is no longer the top.

Zippy rankings that weigh pricing and sales momentum plus foreclosure frequency as measured by DataQuick stats. And just look at this chart showing average Zippy rank when you slice Orange County’s 83 ZIPs into third by median selling price — pricey, middle and cheap! (Remember, it’s a bit like golf — low score wins!

[ BEST ZIPS HERE | WORST ZIPS HERE ]

The priciest ZIP codes — when you slice the market into thirds, by price — trailed the middle slice in average Zippy rankings for the second quarter. Not by much, but by enough to hint at a trend. (Hint: 42 is the average’s average!)

This top-side weakness clearly reflects what we’ve seen and heard — that while the priciest neighborhoods don’t have the obvious housing woes of the cheapest communities, the county’s upper scale real estate has become, at a minimum, a very hard sell.
Here’s last quarter’s Orange County ZIPs, as ranked by Zippy math, and their respective rankings (1 best; 83 worst) in terms of pricing and sales momentum and foreclosure (FC) frequency … Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in: Luxury homes • O.C. Zippy rankings • Top tale • | 65 Comments »

Most improved O.C. home market in Dana Point

August 19th, 2009, 2:00 am by Jon Lansner
MOST IMPROVED
Community ZIP Price Q2 Move
Dana Point 92624 $562,500 7 +74
Newport Beach 92662 $2,200,000 10 +69
Laguna Beach 92651 $1,167,500 14 +62
Costa Mesa 92627 $485,000 8 +61
Irvine 92603 $775,000 3 +46
Orange 92868 $317,500 28 +39
Yorba Linda 92887 $565,000 6 +37
Dana Point 92629 $675,000 2 +36
Anaheim 92805 $306,500 33 +29
Laguna Hills 92653 $391,000 9 +28
MOST CHALLENGED
Community ZIP Price Q2 Move
Brea 92823 $573,500 77 -73
Midway City 92655 $335,000 82 -72
Newport Beach 92661 $1,331,250 64 -54
Corona del Mar 92625 $1,190,000 67 -41
Laguna Niguel 92677 $510,000 66 -38
Brea 92821 $475,000 38 -37
Anaheim 92806 $363,500 53 -37
Anaheim 92804 $300,000 80 -36
Lake Forest 92630 $363,500 79 -31
Cypress 90630 $451,250 31 -29

So who was up — and who was down — in the second-quarter Zippy ranks for Orange County’s 83 ZIP codes?

Beach-close communities made some of the largest improvements when we peeked at the 10 biggest movers — up and down — in these Zippy rankings that weigh pricing and sales momentum plus foreclosure frequency as measured by DataQuick stats. (See chart at right of median selling price, Q2 Zippy ranking and change from Q1!)

As for “most improved” … we see a concentration of Zippy big gainers near the beach. That’s a touch different than what we’ve seen from other data showing beach towns with some of the weakest housing patterns recently. We shoudl note that “most improved” doesn’t equal price appreciation as only 3 O.C. ZIPs had price gains vs. a year ago for the second quarter.

As for the “most challenged” (eh, biggest drops) … we see a half-dozen North County ZIPs — including Brea 92823 that was top-ranked Zippy at the end of 2008. Northern towns, which tend to offer the cheaper housing, are actually suffering from a lack of homes for sale — plus heavy foreclosure pain.  But more seaside, we do see Corona del Mar and Newport Beach 92661 on this “most challenged” lineup. That reflects some of the distress signals other stats have detailed about ocean-close housing.

[ BEST ZIPS HERE | WORST ZIPS HERE ]

Wondering what Zippy is?

  • WHO? Columnist Jon Lansner’s ranking of O.C.’s 83 ZIP codes.
  • WHAT? Tally of 3 key home-market performance benchmarks: Pricing and sales momentum (year-over-year change) plus foreclosure density (per homes in neighborhood).
  • WHY? All rankings need a nickname, thus, “Zippys.”
  • HOW? Using DataQuick data for most recent quarter we rank the 83 ZIPs by price, sales and foreclosure - then determine overall ranking by each ZIP’s average ranking.

Posted in: O.C. Zippy rankings • Top tale • • | 33 Comments »

Hottest O.C. housing is in Seal Beach

August 18th, 2009, 2:00 am by Jon Lansner
WHAT’S A ZIPPY?
• WHO? Columnist Jon Lansner’s ranking of O.C.’s 83 ZIP codes.
• WHAT? Tally of 3 key home-market performance benchmarks: Pricing and sales momentum (year-over-year change) plus foreclosure density (per homes in neighborhood).
• WHY? All rankings need a nickname, thus, “Zippys.”
• HOW? Using DataQuick data for most recent quarter we rank the 83 ZIPs by price, sales and foreclosure — then determine overall ranking by each ZIP’s average ranking.

Seal Beach 90740 had Orange County’s zippiest housing market in the second quarter.

So says our Zippy rankings that weigh pricing and sales momentum plus foreclosure frequency as measured by DataQuick stats. (Yesterday? 10 worst! Tomorrow? Most improved!)

This Seal Beach ZIP ranked by Zippy was 5th of 83 for pricing; #21 for sales; and #3 in terms of foreclosures frequency in the community. In the previous quarter, this ZIP ranked 9 of 83 overall.

Second strongest Q2 was Dana Point 92629; followed by Irvine 92603 as third best.

When you look at the 83 major ZIPs in the county and their Zippy rankings, you see these trends for the best-performing communities — pricier, better selling and less troubled loans:

  • The top Zippy 25 had a median selling price of $505,000 – that’s +16% vs. the middle of the pack.
  • Price momentum of the top 25 — activity vs. a year ago was -7% compared to -16% for the middle of the pack.
  • Sales momentum of the top 25 — activity vs. a year ago was 15% compared to 12% for the middle of the pack.
  • Foreclosures occurred in the top 25 ZIP at a rate of 8.2 homes per 1,000 vs. 10.0 for the middle of the pack.
  • Foreclosures momentum in the top 25 ZIP — change vs. a year ago — was 31% compared to 21% for the middle of the pack.

Here’s last quarter’s 10 zippiest ZIPs, as measured by Zippy math, and their respective rankings (1 best; 83 worst) in terms of pricing and sales momentum and foreclosure frequency. This Zippy leadership is decidedly southern and beach-close …

Rank Prev. Community ZIP Price Price rank Sales rank FC rank
1 9 Seal Beach 90740 $700,000 5 21 3
2 38 Dana Point 92629 $675,000 20 15 13
3 49 Irvine 92603 $775,000 12 35 9
4 5 Huntington Beach 92646 $516,500 8 41 8
5 19 Irvine 92604 $505,000 9 34 18
6 43 Yorba Linda 92887 $565,000 3 16 50
7 81 Dana Point 92624 $562,500 14 22 34
8 69 Costa Mesa 92627 $485,000 22 4 49
9 37 Laguna Hills 92653 $391,000 1 36 40
10 79 Newport Beach 92662 $2,200,000 21 56 2

Posted in: O.C. Zippy rankings • Top tale • • • | 9 Comments »

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