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Lansner on Real Estate ~ The latest news about the housing market from Orange County Register columnist Jon Lansner.

Archive for the 'O.C. Zippy rankings' Category

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Priciest O.C. housing losing its luster

August 20th, 2009, 2:00 am by Jon Lansner
Period Pricey Middle Cheap
Q4 2008 34 37 55
Q1 2009 31 39 54
Q2 2009 35 31 58

As the second year of the real estate bust finished — remember the price peak was June 2007 — we noticed one subtle change in our own Zippy rankings: the top is no longer the top.

Zippy rankings that weigh pricing and sales momentum plus foreclosure frequency as measured by DataQuick stats. And just look at this chart showing average Zippy rank when you slice Orange County’s 83 ZIPs into third by median selling price — pricey, middle and cheap! (Remember, it’s a bit like golf — low score wins!

[ BEST ZIPS HERE | WORST ZIPS HERE ]

The priciest ZIP codes — when you slice the market into thirds, by price — trailed the middle slice in average Zippy rankings for the second quarter. Not by much, but by enough to hint at a trend. (Hint: 42 is the average’s average!)

This top-side weakness clearly reflects what we’ve seen and heard — that while the priciest neighborhoods don’t have the obvious housing woes of the cheapest communities, the county’s upper scale real estate has become, at a minimum, a very hard sell.
Here’s last quarter’s Orange County ZIPs, as ranked by Zippy math, and their respective rankings (1 best; 83 worst) in terms of pricing and sales momentum and foreclosure (FC) frequency … Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in: Luxury homes • O.C. Zippy rankings • Top tale • | 65 Comments »

Most improved O.C. home market in Dana Point

August 19th, 2009, 2:00 am by Jon Lansner
MOST IMPROVED
Community ZIP Price Q2 Move
Dana Point 92624 $562,500 7 +74
Newport Beach 92662 $2,200,000 10 +69
Laguna Beach 92651 $1,167,500 14 +62
Costa Mesa 92627 $485,000 8 +61
Irvine 92603 $775,000 3 +46
Orange 92868 $317,500 28 +39
Yorba Linda 92887 $565,000 6 +37
Dana Point 92629 $675,000 2 +36
Anaheim 92805 $306,500 33 +29
Laguna Hills 92653 $391,000 9 +28
MOST CHALLENGED
Community ZIP Price Q2 Move
Brea 92823 $573,500 77 -73
Midway City 92655 $335,000 82 -72
Newport Beach 92661 $1,331,250 64 -54
Corona del Mar 92625 $1,190,000 67 -41
Laguna Niguel 92677 $510,000 66 -38
Brea 92821 $475,000 38 -37
Anaheim 92806 $363,500 53 -37
Anaheim 92804 $300,000 80 -36
Lake Forest 92630 $363,500 79 -31
Cypress 90630 $451,250 31 -29

So who was up — and who was down — in the second-quarter Zippy ranks for Orange County’s 83 ZIP codes?

Beach-close communities made some of the largest improvements when we peeked at the 10 biggest movers — up and down — in these Zippy rankings that weigh pricing and sales momentum plus foreclosure frequency as measured by DataQuick stats. (See chart at right of median selling price, Q2 Zippy ranking and change from Q1!)

As for “most improved” … we see a concentration of Zippy big gainers near the beach. That’s a touch different than what we’ve seen from other data showing beach towns with some of the weakest housing patterns recently. We shoudl note that “most improved” doesn’t equal price appreciation as only 3 O.C. ZIPs had price gains vs. a year ago for the second quarter.

As for the “most challenged” (eh, biggest drops) … we see a half-dozen North County ZIPs — including Brea 92823 that was top-ranked Zippy at the end of 2008. Northern towns, which tend to offer the cheaper housing, are actually suffering from a lack of homes for sale — plus heavy foreclosure pain.  But more seaside, we do see Corona del Mar and Newport Beach 92661 on this “most challenged” lineup. That reflects some of the distress signals other stats have detailed about ocean-close housing.

[ BEST ZIPS HERE | WORST ZIPS HERE ]

Wondering what Zippy is?

  • WHO? Columnist Jon Lansner’s ranking of O.C.’s 83 ZIP codes.
  • WHAT? Tally of 3 key home-market performance benchmarks: Pricing and sales momentum (year-over-year change) plus foreclosure density (per homes in neighborhood).
  • WHY? All rankings need a nickname, thus, “Zippys.”
  • HOW? Using DataQuick data for most recent quarter we rank the 83 ZIPs by price, sales and foreclosure - then determine overall ranking by each ZIP’s average ranking.

Posted in: O.C. Zippy rankings • Top tale • • | 33 Comments »

Hottest O.C. housing is in Seal Beach

August 18th, 2009, 2:00 am by Jon Lansner
WHAT’S A ZIPPY?
• WHO? Columnist Jon Lansner’s ranking of O.C.’s 83 ZIP codes.
• WHAT? Tally of 3 key home-market performance benchmarks: Pricing and sales momentum (year-over-year change) plus foreclosure density (per homes in neighborhood).
• WHY? All rankings need a nickname, thus, “Zippys.”
• HOW? Using DataQuick data for most recent quarter we rank the 83 ZIPs by price, sales and foreclosure — then determine overall ranking by each ZIP’s average ranking.

Seal Beach 90740 had Orange County’s zippiest housing market in the second quarter.

So says our Zippy rankings that weigh pricing and sales momentum plus foreclosure frequency as measured by DataQuick stats. (Yesterday? 10 worst! Tomorrow? Most improved!)

This Seal Beach ZIP ranked by Zippy was 5th of 83 for pricing; #21 for sales; and #3 in terms of foreclosures frequency in the community. In the previous quarter, this ZIP ranked 9 of 83 overall.

Second strongest Q2 was Dana Point 92629; followed by Irvine 92603 as third best.

When you look at the 83 major ZIPs in the county and their Zippy rankings, you see these trends for the best-performing communities — pricier, better selling and less troubled loans:

  • The top Zippy 25 had a median selling price of $505,000 – that’s +16% vs. the middle of the pack.
  • Price momentum of the top 25 — activity vs. a year ago was -7% compared to -16% for the middle of the pack.
  • Sales momentum of the top 25 — activity vs. a year ago was 15% compared to 12% for the middle of the pack.
  • Foreclosures occurred in the top 25 ZIP at a rate of 8.2 homes per 1,000 vs. 10.0 for the middle of the pack.
  • Foreclosures momentum in the top 25 ZIP — change vs. a year ago — was 31% compared to 21% for the middle of the pack.

Here’s last quarter’s 10 zippiest ZIPs, as measured by Zippy math, and their respective rankings (1 best; 83 worst) in terms of pricing and sales momentum and foreclosure frequency. This Zippy leadership is decidedly southern and beach-close …

Rank Prev. Community ZIP Price Price rank Sales rank FC rank
1 9 Seal Beach 90740 $700,000 5 21 3
2 38 Dana Point 92629 $675,000 20 15 13
3 49 Irvine 92603 $775,000 12 35 9
4 5 Huntington Beach 92646 $516,500 8 41 8
5 19 Irvine 92604 $505,000 9 34 18
6 43 Yorba Linda 92887 $565,000 3 16 50
7 81 Dana Point 92624 $562,500 14 22 34
8 69 Costa Mesa 92627 $485,000 22 4 49
9 37 Laguna Hills 92653 $391,000 1 36 40
10 79 Newport Beach 92662 $2,200,000 21 56 2

Posted in: O.C. Zippy rankings • Top tale • • • | 9 Comments »

O.C. housing weak spot in Buena Park

August 17th, 2009, 2:00 am by Jon Lansner
WHAT’S A ZIPPY?
• WHO? Columnist Jon Lansner’s ranking of O.C.’s 83 ZIP codes.
• WHAT? Tally of 3 key home-market performance benchmarks: Pricing and sales momentum (year-over-year change) plus foreclosure density (per homes in neighborhood).
• WHY? All rankings need a nickname, thus, “Zippys.”
• HOW? Using DataQuick data for most recent quarter we rank the 83 ZIPs by price, sales and foreclosure — then determine overall ranking by each ZIP’s average ranking.

Buena Park 90621 had Orange County’s weakest housing market in the second quarter.

So says our Zippy rankings that weigh pricing and sales momentum plus foreclosure frequency as measured by DataQuick stats. (Tomorrow? The 10 best-performing ZIPs!)

This Buena Park ZIP ranked 65 of 83 for pricing; 73 for sales; and 73 in terms of foreclosures frequency in the community. In the previous quarter, this ZIP ranked 64 of 83 overall.

Second worst Zippy was Midway City 92655; followed by Newport Coast 92657 as third weakest.

When you look at the 83 major ZIPs in the county and their Zippy rankings, you see these trends for the worst-performing communities –cheaper, slow selling and heavy with problem mortgages:

  • The Zippy bottom 25 had a median selling price of $344,125 – that’s -21% vs. the middle of the pack.
  • Price momentum of the Bottom 25 — activity vs. a year ago — was -22% compared to -16% for the middle of the pack.
  • Sales momentum of the Bottom 25 — activity vs. a year ago was 3% compared to 12% for the middle of the pack.
  • Foreclosures occurred in the Bottom 25 ZIP at a rate of 14.3 homes per 1,000 vs. 10.0 for the middle of the pack.
  • Foreclosures momentum in the Bottom 25 ZIP — change vs. a year ago — was +31% compared to +21% for the middle of the pack.

Here’s last quarter’s 10 weakest ZIPs, as measured by Zippy math, and their respective rankings (1 best; 83 worst) in terms of pricing and sales momentum and foreclosure (FC) frequency.

Q2 Q1 Community ZIP Median Price rank Sales rank FC rank
83 64 Buena Park 90621 $320,500 65 73 73
82 10 Midway City 92655 $335,000 51 83 68
81 62 Newport Coast 92657 $1,453,000 80 77 44
80 44 Anaheim 92804 $300,000 66 48 74
79 48 Lake Forest 92630 $363,500 55 67 62
78 74 Newport Beach 92663 $600,000 82 69 31
77 4 Brea 92823 $573,500 44 75 58
74 53 Rancho S Marg. 92688 $375,000 35 68 70
74 54 San Clemente 92673 $675,000 50 59 64
74 56 La Habra 90631 $292,500 64 46 63

Posted in: Meltdown • O.C. Zippy rankings • Top tale • • | 18 Comments »

Zippy rankings Q1 from (A)liso to (Y)orba

May 25th, 2009, 3:00 pm by Jon Lansner

page-teaser-vertBelow is the 2009 first-quarter Zippy rankings for 83 Orange County neighborhood housing markets. Using DataQuick statistics, columnist Jonathan
Lansner’s ZIP-by-ZIP math that tracks relative pricing and selling strength plus foreclosure frequency at the neighborhood level.

Here’s some analysis …

Chart below is the latest 83-ZIP snapshot. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in: O.C. Zippy rankings • Top tale • | 38 Comments »

Newport housing runs hot and cold

May 17th, 2009, 7:50 am by Jon Lansner

So who’s hot and who’s not, Zippy-wise? A peek at the Orange County ZIPs that moved the most in the first quarter Zippy rankings from the previous quarter, revleals a very mixed picture!

Moving up
City ZIP Price Rank Chg.
Newport Beach 92661 $1,200,000 10 +69
Huntington Beach 92646 $470,000 5 +66
Buena Park 90620 $350,000 19 +62
Costa Mesa 92626 $495,000 7 +52
Orange 92865 $415,000 26 +44
Garden Grove 92841 $345,000 23 +42
Brea 92821 $535,000 1 +41
San Clemente 92672 $525,500 34 +40
Garden Grove 92840 $330,000 39 +39
Anaheim 92806 $373,000 16 +36
Moving down
City ZIP Price Rank Chg.
Villa Park 92861 $865,000 82 -73
Irvine 92618 $437,500 80 -66
Laguna Beach 92651 $1,000,000 76 -59
Newport Beach 92663 $699,000 74 -58
Newport Beach 92662 $1,992,500 79 -58
La Palma 90623 $420,000 60 -57
Garden Grove 92844 $307,500 73 -47
Anaheim 92808 $536,250 45 -39
Orange 92868 $300,000 67 -39
Placentia 92870 $372,500 39 -34

The Zippy rankings, if you didn’t know, track relative pricing and selling strength plus foreclosure frequency at the neighborhood level. (See chart with Q1 median, Zippy rank and change in rank from q4!)

In this crazy times, Zippys show, things can change fast. For example:

  • Newport Beach 92661 — homes on the peninsula — had the biggest upward move: 69 places to #10.
  • Conversely, Newport 92663 — largely homes further into the bay — and Newport 92662  — Balboa Island — suffered the 3rd and 4th biggest drops to 74th and 79th place respectively.

One can surmise that the limited  sales volume in these neighborhoods recently — likely due to their extra pricey homes — lead to such volatile Zippy rankings.

All told, that Newport trio amounted to three of the five Orange County ZIPs with median selling prices above $1 million for the first quarter landing in the big movers club of the Zippys.

It’s worth noting that the biggest mover down — Villa Park 92861, down 73 spots to next-to-last 82nd place — was the #1 market by Zippy math in 2008’s third quarter.

More Zippy analysis …

page-teaser-vertOther news …

Posted in: O.C. Zippy rankings • Top tale • • | 24 Comments »

Brea owns zippiest home market in O.C.

May 14th, 2009, 12:00 pm by Jon Lansner
WHAT’S A ZIPPY?
• WHO? Columnist Jon Lansner’s ranking of O.C.’s 83 ZIP codes.
• WHAT? Tally of 3 key home-market performance benchmarks: Pricing and sales momentum (year-over-year change) plus foreclosure density (per homes in neighborhood).
• WHY? All rankings need a nickname, thus, “Zippys.”
• HOW? Using DataQuick data for most recent quarter we rank the 83 ZIPs by price, sales and foreclosure — then determine overall ranking by each ZIP’s average ranking.

Brea’s main ZIP  92821 was Orange County’s zippiest housing market among 83 local ZIP codes in the first quarter, according to my Zippy rankings that weigh a local neighborhood’s relative housing strength based on pricing, sales and foreclosures.

Brea 92821 replaced its eastern neighbor — Brea 92823 atop the Zippy rankings. That ZIP, around Carbon Canyon, fell to 4th. Cypress 90630 was 2nd, keeping up with a North County trend of strength. Two Huntington Beach ZIPs — 92647 and 92646 — were 3rd and 5th respectively.

[ ZIPPY'S WORST? HERE! ]

When you look at the 83 major ZIPs in the county and their Zippys rankings — and peek at the best-performing spots by Zippy math — you see these 1st quarter trends from the 25 zippiest housing markets:

  • The top 25 are pricey with a median selling price 9% higher than the middle of the pack.
  • Price momentum of the top 25 is better with activity vs. a year ago -10% compared to -20% for the middle of the pack.
  • Stronger pricing, weaker sales momentum of the top 25: Activity vs. a year ago was +32% compared to +43% for the middle of the pack.
  • Fewer foreclosures. In the top 25 ZIP, foreclosures came  at a rate of 1.5 homes per 1,000 vs. 2.8 for the middle of the pack.
  • Foreclosure momentum, though, in the top 25 ZIP was weak. Change vs. a year ago was -5% compared to -10% for the middle of the pack.

Here’s the Zippys‘ Top 10, by 1st-quarter rank (1 is best, 83’s worst) with the ZIP’s previous rank, median selling price; and rankings for pricing and sales momentum and foreclosures (FC) density:

Rank Prev. Town ZIP Price Pricing rank Sales rank FC rank
1 42 Brea 92821 $535,000 3 34 27
2 24 Cypress 90630 $445,000 10 30 26
3 31 Huntington Beach 92647 $518,000 6 58 4
4 1 Brea 92823 $580,000 1 5 63
5 71 Huntington Beach 92646 $470,000 15 49 7
6 6 Fountain Valley 92708 $542,500 8 42 25
7 59 Costa Mesa 92626 $495,000 11 18 47
8 32 Laguna Woods 92637 $234,000 7 73 5
9 10 Seal Beach 90740 $707,500 2 72 13
10 6 Fullerton 92835 $515,000 12 63 14
10 39 Midway City 92655 $297,500 71 7 11
10 79 Newport Beach 92661 $1,200,000 73 10 6

Posted in: O.C. Zippy rankings • Top tale • • | 57 Comments »

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