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Lansner on Real Estate ~ The latest news about the housing market from Orange County Register columnist Jon Lansner.

Archive for the 'Fed Follies' Category

Fed keeps rates same. Mistake?

November 4th, 2009, 11:21 am by Jon Lansner
The Federal Reserve Begins Last Meeting Of 2008

The Federal Reserve today said it’ll keep its interest rates at practically zero while noting it found a pulse in real estate …

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up. Conditions in financial markets were roughly unchanged, on balance, over the intermeeting period. Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales.

Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

  • Full Fed statement HERE!

Worry brews in some circles that too much cheap money — the Fed last raised the key “Fed Funds” interest rate its control in June 2006 — heightens the risk of future asset bubbles and broader extreme inflation.

The Fed's 'cheap money' policies should ...
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Lansner on Real Estate’s most-popular October postings …

  1. 16 OC hotels in deep financial distress
  2. Corona del Mar home on TV’s ‘Million Dollar’ show
  3. OC renters enjoy 3rd biggest US rent cuts
  4. Investor loses $50 million on Santa Ana office tower
  5. Hear why this guy saw home-price crash coming
  6. OC sent 60,000+ erroneous property tax bills
  7. $3 million price cut sells TV-featured OC mansion
  8. Top Calif. home price gains in 3 OC cities
  9. $38 million bay-view home is 2nd priciest OC listing
  10. Calif. house prices projected to jump 7.9%
  11. OC builder gets $206 million loan from Neverland savior
  12. UCLA sees 16% OC home-price gain in 2010

Fed says foreclosures undermine Western recovery

October 22nd, 2009, 2:00 am by Jon Lansner

New California Law Imposes 90-Day Moratorium On Foreclosures

The Fed’s San Francisco unit notes foreclosure’s drag on the economy in the West in its 7th 2009 “Beige Book,” a Federal Reserve Board report on regional economic conditions that’s done eight times a year. We note no mention of foreclosures in the September Beige Book!

  • The Fed’s latest take on Western real estate (Full report HERE!) …

Reports suggested that demand for housing continued to improve slowly, while demand for commercial real estate eroded further. The pace of home sales picked up further in parts of the District, accompanied by rising prices in some cases. However, the momentum for recovery has been undermined by ongoing increases in foreclosure rates, which have slowed the decline in the inventory of available homes. As a result, new home construction continued at a very slow pace throughout the District, and industry contacts noted little or no prospect for a significant pickup in the near term. Conditions continued to deteriorate in the commercial real estate market: demand for office and industrial space fell further, and financing for new development and purchases reportedly remained “frozen.”

  • The Fed’s September view (Full report HERE!) …

Housing market activity in the District remained weak but showed continued signs of improvement, while demand for commercial real estate eroded further. The pace of home sales in many areas of the District, though still at relatively low levels, continued to edge up, spurred by price declines and low mortgage rates. However, contacts in some areas, including lower-cost areas such as Idaho and Utah, noted that steep rates on nonconforming “jumbo” loans and a scarcity of lenders willing to offer them have restricted sales of higher-priced homes. Moreover, new home construction remained at very low levels throughout the District. Conditions continued to deteriorate in the commercial real estate market, with vacancy rates for office and industrial space increasing in many parts of the District and rent concessions rising in frequency. Contacts reported that limited availability of financing continued to sharply curtail construction activity and investment transactions for commercial properties.

Previously in 2009 … Read the rest of this entry »

Fed does zip, notes housing activity up

September 23rd, 2009, 11:23 am by Jon Lansner

Paper Currency Is Designed And Printed At Bureau of Engraving and PrintingSays the Fed this AM, after the central bankers decided to keep the interest rates it controls at practically zero (”target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent”) …

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn. Conditions in financial markets have improved further, and activity in the housing sector has increased. Household spending seems to be stabilizing, but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.

Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

Read the rest of this entry »

Fed sees Western housing weak yet improving

September 10th, 2009, 12:00 pm by Jon Lansner

Monthly Housing Starts Unexpectedly Rise 17.2 Percent For Month Of MayThe Fed’s San Francisco unit says the West’s weak housing markets shows some signs of being on the mend in its 6th 2009 “Beige Book,” a Federal Reserve Board report on regional economic conditions that’s done eight times a year. (Fed called Western housing feeble in January!)

  • The Fed’s latest take on Western real estate (Full report HERE!) …

Housing market activity in the District remained weak but showed continued signs of improvement, while demand for commercial real estate eroded further. The pace of home sales in many areas of the District, though still at relatively low levels, continued to edge up, spurred by price declines and low mortgage rates. However, contacts in some areas, including lower-cost areas such as Idaho and Utah, noted that steep rates on nonconforming “jumbo” loans and a scarcity of lenders willing to offer them have restricted sales of higher-priced homes. Moreover, new home construction remained at very low levels throughout the District. Conditions continued to deteriorate in the commercial real estate market, with vacancy rates for office and industrial space increasing in many parts of the District and rent concessions rising in frequency. Contacts reported that limited availability of financing continued to sharply curtail construction activity and investment transactions for commercial properties.

  • The Fed in July wrote (Full report HERE!) …

Conditions in District housing markets remained very weak but showed further signs of improvement, while demand for commercial real estate continued to erode. Sales prices for new and existing homes fell further in most parts of the District, and home construction activity remained at very low levels. Combined with low mortgage rates, however, price declines have propelled a sustained pickup in the pace of home sales in many areas. Demand for commercial real estate fell further, and with rising vacancy rates, tenants have successfully been requesting rent concessions and other new terms on existing leases. Construction activity for commercial properties also continued to fall, and contacts noted that a lack of available credit remained a constraint for construction activity and investment transactions in some areas.

Previously in 2009 …

  • June: “Remained very weak but showed some signs of improvement, while demand for commercial real estate slid lower. Elevated rates of home foreclosures, ongoing price declines, and low mortgage interest rates have combined to support a sustained pickup in the pace of home sales in many areas. However, the pace of home construction remained very slow.”
  • April: “Remained very weak on net despite sustained sales gains in some areas, and demand for commercial real estate fell further from already low levels. Substantial ongoing declines in home prices spurred in part by high rates of foreclosures have combined with low mortgage rates to increase affordability and cause a significant pickup in the pace of home sales in some areas. However, the overall level of new and existing home sales remained very low in most areas, as did construction activity for new homes.”
  • March: “Remained mired at very low levels, and considerable demand declines were reported for commercial real estate. The pace of home sales stayed very slow in most areas, despite some pickup in recent months as price declines have increased affordability, and construction of new homes was limited.”
  • January: “Remained feeble during the survey period, and demand for commercial real estate fell further. Despite some pickup in recent months, the pace of home sales continued to be quite slow in most parts of the District; home prices continued to fall, with the pace of decline quickening in some areas.”

Big real estate woes:

O.C. speaks: More Bernanke, good or bad?

August 26th, 2009, 7:00 pm by Jon Lansner

President Obama will renominate Ben Bernanke to a second term as Federal Reserve chair

Does Bernanke deserve to be "rehired" at the Fed?
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Here’s some more opinions from Orange County market watchers to help you vote …

REAL ESTATE

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke Testifies Before Senate Committee On Monetary PolicyBill Plattos, FirstTeam: Yes on Bernanke. I have personally met him with nine other large brokers and discussed the market and short sales. Found him to be open minded, sharp and pleasant.

Steve Thomas, Altera: Ben Bernanke did what he could in a limited amount of time to reverse the course; he was just too late to avert the impending implosion of housing and international financing. Since the downturn, the Federal Reserve has propped up the financial system and helped increase demand in housing through policy decisions and by pouring money into the system. Short term, absolute economic collapse was prevented. In the long term I am concerned about the Federal Reserve navigating its way through the next few years. I am really concerned about inflation and higher interest rates to come and its overall impact to the economy.

ECONOMISTS

Mark Schniepp, California Forecast: Now that the worst is over, why not reappoint him? He can’t do much worse. While the U.S. economy may have slipped into recession, the severity and rapidity that characterized it may have been averted, and probably the panic as well. So I’m not a very strong supporter of what Bernanke did, but it could be argued that they were probably one time behaviorial events that were a reaction to unprecedented times regarding the credit crisis and troubled bank assets. Bernanke did maintain an aggressive monetary policy to try to impact the credit markets. He is like Greenspan, a strong advocate of limiting inflation, an ideology we will need in 2011 and 2012

Chris Thornberg, Beacon Economics: There are a lot of opinions, but realistically we don’t have the information necessary to make such an opinion. When he took office a short time ago he was immediately beset with enormous issues–greater than any Fed chief since the Great Depression. To deal with these he put into place a series of programs that were completely unprecedented in the history of the institution. These plans are still in place and in some cases continued to be expanded. Clearly the economy has stabilized. But whether they have truly worked to correct the problems, or if they have simply pushed them down the road a bit, or whether by doing so he has created a new set of problems we simple won’t know without the benefit of hindsight. This implies to me that he does deserve another term. We have chosen a course of action and for better or worse we nee to see it through to the end.

MONEY MANAGERS

Charles Rother, American Strategic Capital: Faced with one of the greatest economic crisis in our nation’s history, Ben Bernanke demonstrated great leadership, courage and creativeness. In the near term, the reappointment of Bernanke provides businesses, consumers and investors with confidence of continuity that is required during the early stages of an economic recovery. In the intermediate term, his inflation targeting skills will be tested. In the long term, Ben Bernanke’s intellectual leadership, clear communication skills, strong work ethic and willingness to challenge conventional methods will potentially lead to an even more effective and efficient monetary policy and stronger U.S. and global economy.

Chip Hanlon, Delta Global: President Obama had no choice but to re-appoint Ben Bernanke. The unprecedented spending plans of this new administration require a willing accomplice at the Federal Reserve; only an extraordinarily accommodative, inflationary monetary policy could allow such deficits to be possible. There was no way Obama could take the chance on nominating anyone else who might take a different monetary view which would make the administration’s deficits impossible. I often tell investors to think: if the tight money and tax cuts of the Volcker/Reagan era brought us out of our last stag-flationary period, what path are we following today, exactly?

Ryan Kelly, Spectrum Management: Switching horses mid stream is rarely a preferred strategy. But more importantly, Bernanke has done a good job navigating the worst financial crisis of our generation. Bernanke was a student of the Great Depression in the 1930’s, and he has avoided the major policy missteps made during both the US in the 1930s and Japan in the 1990s. Far more important for his 2nd term, will be balancing how long to keep printing money versus letting the private sector take back over its “normal role”. While most market participants will praise him today, he will burned in effigy if he runs the printing presses longer then needed.

O.C. Treasurer Chriss Street: President Obama’s reappointment of Ben Bernanke for another term as Fed Chairman has to be interpreted as a major defeat for the President’s liberal constituency. With the healthcare reform battering in the polls the President has taken over the last six weeks, he had no appetite to squander his remaining political capital on a bruising ordeal to confirm one of his allies to this powerful position.

Fed follies …

Pimco: Bernanke is right man at right time for Fed

August 25th, 2009, 11:42 am by Jon Lansner

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke Testifies Before Senate Committee On Monetary PolicyPaul McCulley, chief Fed watcher at bond giant Pimco in Newport Beach, says of President Obama’s call to renominate Ben Bernanke (in photo) to a second term as Federal Reserve chair …

Unambiguously, yes:  Ben Bernanke flat out earned this re-appointment, having boldly gone where orthodoxy argued for caution, saving capitalism from its own debt-deflation pathologies.  Borrowing from Colin Powell in the matter of America’s strategy in liberating Kuwait in 1990, Mr. Bernanke not only cut off the fat tail of Armageddon risk, he killed it.

Many times, he had to take the Fed into quasi-fiscal policy activities, risking the wrath of Congress, as he grew and substituted the Fed’s balance sheet for the broken balance sheet of the private financial intermediation system.   He knew what he was doing, did it with dispatch, fully recognizing that he was necessarily risking, in some measure, the Fed’s cherished independence.  But it was the right thing to do.

Now, his mission is to navigate both the “how” and the “when” of taking the Fed back to its core monetary policy objectives of sustained growth with low unemployment, in the context of modest inflation.   It will be a long slog, but he, with his colleagues, has the both the skills and the tools to achieve these outcomes.   And now he also has the political capital, bestowed by President Obama.

He also has the herculean task of bringing macro-prudential regulation under the Fed’s umbrella, while pushing hard for reform of the balkanized micro-prudential regulatory arrangements that helped foster the boom-bust trajectory of the financial system over the last decade, both domestically and internationally.    In addition, he must lead a re-thinking of the role of asset prices, not just goods and services prices, in the Fed’s countercyclical reaction function.

Bottom line:  Ben Bernanke is the right man at the right time to lead us to higher economic and financial ground, humble in spirit while brave in thought and policy execution.

Other notions …

Does Bernanke deserve to be "rehired" at the Fed?
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Other Fed musings …

Does Fed boss deserve a 2nd term?

August 25th, 2009, 9:05 am by Jon Lansner

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke Testifies Before Senate Committee On Monetary PolicyAssociated Press reports

President Barack Obama announced Tuesday he wants to keep Ben Bernanke on as Fed chairman, saying he shepherded America through the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

“Ben approached a financial system on the verge of collapse with calm and wisdom; with bold action and out-of-the-box thinking that has helped put the brakes on our economic freefall,” said Obama, with Bernanke standing by his side. “Almost none of the decisions he or any of us made have been easy.”

Bernanke, appointed to a four-year term by President George W. Bush, became Fed boss on Feb. 1, 2006 after Alan Greenspan’s 18-year tenure. Bernanke’s second term requires Senate approval.

Does Bernanke deserve to be "rehired" at the Fed?
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Real estate trends …