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Lansner on Real Estate ~ The latest news about the housing market from Orange County Register columnist Jon Lansner.

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O.C. has 3rd worst U.S. home affordability

November 23rd, 2009, 12:01 am by Jon Lansner
Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Orange County housing affordability was 3rd worst in the nation in the third quarter, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo “Housing Opportunity Index.”

HOI showed that 37.6% of all new and existing Orange County homes sold in the third quarter of 2009 were affordable to families earning the local median income of $86,100. How’d that rank?

  • That’s the second consecutive drop in local affordability after three years on the upswing.
  • 3rd worst among the major markets followed.
  • Prime reason for falling local affordability? Rising prices! By the HOI math, local prices were up 5% in the quarter and 3% higher that a year ago.
  • And local incomes, by the way, haven’t budged in six months!
  • Worst than us? New York and San Francisco.
  • Most affordable? Indianapolis, for the 17 consecutive quarter.

Nationally? HOI showed 70.1% new and existing homes sold in Q3 were affordable to families earning national median income of $64,000 vs. near-record 72.3 percent in q2.

FYI: HOI measures percentage of homes sold in an area that are affordable to families earning that area’s median income during a quarter using data from, among others, First American Real Estate Solutions and Federal Housing Finance Board.

Real estate outlooks:

11 Social Media gifts to be thankful for

November 22nd, 2009, 10:00 am by Jon Lansner

socialsundayplain

In the spirit  of the holiday, we asked 11 active local Social Media participants said their were thankful for from this brave new world …


  • EDUCATION: “I’m incredibly thankful that Social Media opened me up to national connections and conversations in the real estate industry. The industry is on the brink of significant change. To be able to engage with some of the people that are at the forefront of some of these changes is exciting. Without my involvement on Twitter and Facebook, I never would have known these fascinating people.” – Linsey Planeta (@linsey)
  • SANITY: “My life is one crazy balancing act that takes up 30 hours of my 24-hour day. You can imagine how far down the list networking, being involved with the community, and doing extracurricular activities has to be. Social Media allowed me to stay connected to my interest groups, news that are relevant to me, stay involved with the non-profit work that mean a lot to me, and my clients in a harmonious fashion so that I don’t feel like I have to live many different lives, and I can maintain sanity.” – Paul Tran (@paultran)
  • TWEETUPS: “I have met some fantastic people that I respect, appreciate, and genuinely like. Recently I was devastated to find out that a friend and client had lost a young child. I remembered that I had met an amazing floral designer, the owner of Avante Gardens in Brea, at an Irvine tweetup.  I sent her a message asking for help.  Her genuine concern gave me great comfort and peace.  She personally handled creating a beautiful floral arrangement.  Words cannot accommodate my gratitude to her.” – Carolynn Santaniello (@ocrealtress)
  • CONNECTIONS: “I am grateful for a very powerful platform to connect, engage, give, help and learn from the most amazing people! Virtual connections have become a valuable part of my life. Then then having the opportunity to elevate this connection in real life is a most extraordinary and enriching experience! Social Media is a 24/7 free buffet fulfilling everyone’s palette!” – Henie Reisinger (hennartonline)
  • DEALS: “I am thankful Twitter! I get tons of stuff for free and lots of coupons which saves me money.” – Rhonda Burgin (@burginco)
  • CONFIDENCE: “I am extremely thankful for the contacts. Twitter, blogging and Facebook have changed my career. I have been able to grow a large connection of virtual and real life friends. The creation of that community allowed me the faith to take the risk and start my business in blog management and web design this year. Without the strength of my social network, and the support of my followers I would have never taken the risk.” – Kristen Wright (@kristenwright)
  • FREEDOM: “I’m thankful for the freedom as a content creator. I am both writer and publisher. Although I don’t answer to an editor, I answer to people much more important: My readers, who’ll ultimately determine the value of what I produce. Their comments — whether supportive or tough-love — crystalize my ideas. Without access to New/Social Media channels, I wouldn’t have the opportunity to carry on this vital dialog, and for that, I am truly thankful.” – Ron Ploof (@ronploof)
  • GIVING: “My first temptation was gratitude for the ability to connect with so many outside of my usual spheres of influence. Taking another second to ponder brought me to a more humanitarian conclusion. I’m perhaps most grateful for the culture of support and helpfulness from the community. Yeah, there are those who take, take, take. But, by and large, the “wisdom of the crowd” tends to be spring loaded for give, give, give.” – Mel Aclaro (@melaclaro)
  • BRIDGES: “I’m thankful the wonderful connections. It has opened up doors and brought in tons of people that I may have never had the chance to meet. It has built bridges for me across states, provided the opportunity to learn how to engage more people, given me a new avenue with which to help people. I wouldn’t even be writing this paragraph for this article if it wasn’t for Social Media.” – Justin Moore-Brown (@bigheadasian)
  • FRIENDS 1: “I am most thankful for Social Media in enrinching my personal and professional life from all of the wonderful people that I have connected with virtually and had the chance to personally meet. I owe who I am today to all of you.” – Neil Schaffer (@nealschaffer)
  • FRIENDS 2: @sashakane @davidmoyle @suzbroughton @vbesack @remarx @sendchocolate @barbatsea @josephaldrich @queenofspain @shannatrenholm @technosailor @irreverentwidow @rachyrach1 @adrigonzo @anaperiodista @daNanner @DavidKirlew @Dawn_Abraham @g33kski11z @KatieKrafka @MiaChambers @mousewords @nobodys_girl @oakmonster @techbabe @wenditv and, of course, @jonlan” – Gregg Gallagher (@fstop23)

[ Social media tips by email? CLICK HERE! ]


What to be thankful for in real estate

November 21st, 2009, 12:01 am by Jon Lansner

The federal tax credit extension, lower foreclosure rates, rising home prices, increased revenue and some rosy forecasts. Has real estate — after four years of slumping sales and prices –  hit bottom? These thoughts may be some of the things evoking smiles on the recession-weary faces of real estate types this year. Insider Q&A asked some real estate insiders what is there is to be thankful for this in the real estate business this Thanksgiving …

thanksgiving“We are thankful for the message the consumer has provided to us as an industry and as a company.  As a 33-year-old company, we have been witness to several business cycles, but nothing like we have experienced in the last four years.  The devastation to home values, to people’s lives and to their finances has humbled our industry and our firm. The consumer has drawn the proverbial line in the sand and is demanding much more from us an industry and as a company.  It is no longer, get a license, sell a home.  It is now, understand the very client you serve, meet their needs and most of all, with education and integrity.  I am thankful for the line in the sand and those companies in our industry that miss this wonderful opportunity to assist buyers and sellers of real estate in a new and meaningful way, will not survive the current market.  As we look to the future, there is an end to every cycle and we believe that the end to the current cycle is in site.” – Michael Hickman, Seven Gables Real Estate

thanksgiving“I’m thankful that housing in Orange County has become affordable again to first-time homebuyers.  After being priced out of the market for so long, prices have dipped to a level that people can again afford to buy their first home and building for the future.  Many Realtors have re-discovered the simple joy of handing a first-time homebuyer the keys to their first home and to the American Dream.” – Tom Pelton, Prudential California Realty

thanksgiving“This year gave hope to many folks priced out of the housing market, from the artificial price run up back to the beginning of this century. Some families are grateful they can now qualify for a home in more realistic price ranges. Government intervention with their loan modification efforts have saved thousands of borrowers homes from foreclosure, giving them a chance to preserve their home ownership.” – Tom Moon, Pacific Moon Real Estate Read the rest of this entry »

Really? Detroit stadium a 99% loss

November 20th, 2009, 6:00 pm by Jon Lansner

really

Real estate news and views from around the globe that make you go, “Really?”

Where else but …

  • FUMBLE: Football stadium near Detroit a 99% loss for city (istockanalyst) MORE HERE!
  • OUCH! GM job shift would add to downtown Detroit woes (Detroit Free Press) MORE HERE!
  • SUPPLY: Fewer homes unsold in Detroit area (Detroit Free Press) MORE HERE!
  • BETTER: Michigan foreclosures decline slightly for October (MLive.com) MORE HERE!
  • PUZZLE: Michigan’s young people: To stay or not to stay? (MLive.com) MORE HERE!

O.C. home price seen rising 10.9% in year

November 20th, 2009, 12:02 am by Jon Lansner
September sales: Click for details!
$532,000

$532,000

 $613,000

$613,000

$1,450,000

$1,450,000

First American CoreLogic’s computers say …

  • Orange County homes prices, in the year ending September 2010, will appreciate 10.94%. Last month, First American projected a 9.53% annual again for year ending August 2010.
  • Orange County homes prices — including distressed sales — declined 6.74% in the year ended in September vs. 7.92% rate of annual decline in August.
  • Excluding distressed transactions, Orange County homes prices year-over-year fell 6.14% in September vs. August’s -7.07%.
  • California prices? Down 12.16% annually (with distressed); down 6.95% (without.) Forecast? Up 9.36% in a year with distressed included; +8.24% without.
  • National home prices — including distressed sales — declined by -9.8% annual rate in September. (Excluding distressed sales, national year-over-year prices declined by 6%.)
  • In year ending September 2010, forecast appreciation for national home prices — excluding distressed — is 1.1%.
  • When distressed sales were included Nevada (-25.5%) was the nation’s worst for year ended September!

Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic: “While the improvement in the year-over-year decline is encouraging, high foreclosure rates and increasing distressed sales are likely to continue to hold prices down.”

Recent outlooks:

Really? 1st rise for Bay Area home price in 2 years

November 19th, 2009, 6:00 pm by Jon Lansner

really

Real estate news and views from around the globe that make you go, “Really?”

… Psst! Smallest SoCal home-price loss in 2 years!

SoCal rent costs fall, 1st dip in 14 years

November 19th, 2009, 7:10 am by Jon Lansner

Renting costs in Southern California fell at an annual rate for the first time in 14 years, according to the freshest Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index.

Local renters’ costs fell 0.1% last month vs. October 2008. Last such SoCal decline? A similar size drop in November 1995.

Renters weren’t the only housing winners in the CPI report:

  • Homeowners equivalent inflation rate (purchase costs not included), fell at an 0.7% annual rate in October. That’s biggest SoCal drop since June 1995.
  • Household energy costs in SoCal fell at an 0.7% annual rate in October.Actually, that’s the smallest drop in a string of declines that dates to last November.
  • Household furnishings and operations fell at an 2.5% annual rate in October. That’s biggest SoCal drop since April 2008.
  • Overall, SoCal housing inflation fell at an 0.6% annual rate in October — fourth consecutive drop and biggest since June 1983.
  • As for the big picture, SoCal total inflation rate for all goods and services fell at an 0.4% annual rate in October. It’s the eighth consecutive drop — but that smallest in that string.

Rental trends: