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O.C. home price up 3.6% vs. year ago
November 26th, 2009, 12:10 am · 38 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner
For the 22 business days ending Nov. 4 – DataQuick’s latest homebuying report — Orange County saw …
| Slice | Price | Yr. ago | Sales | Yr. ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houses | $495,909 | +4.4% | 1,896 | +12.9% |
| Condos | $304,000 | +1.9% | 826 | +10.3% |
| New | $545,000 | +10.6% | 163 | +0.6% |
| All O.C. | $435,000 | +3.6% | 2,885 | +11.4% |
- $435,000 median selling price that is +3.6% vs. a year ago and -33% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000.
- The most recent median is 18% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — a current bottom that was -43% below the peak.
- Prices fell on a year-over-year basis from Sept. 2007 through August. (Worst at -31.5% in August 2008.)
- Single-family homes resell for 32% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while condos sell 35% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 37% below their February ‘05 top.
- In this most recent period, O.C. shoppers bought 2,885 residences — that is +11.4% vs. year-ago buying activity. (From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.)
- A 15-month streak of sales gains vs. the year-ago period ended in September. That followed 33 consecutive months where sales failed to beat the previous year’s pace.
How did your neighborhood fare? Check our ZIP-by-ZIP data HERE!
“Other real estate trends:
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The 10 major cities in the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index have risen 5% from their April low, but the index is still predicting a massive 45% fall from today’s values.
The index is still showing a current loss of 30% from the high in June 2006. Based upon a trend generated from the actual prices of 1987 to 1997, and generated forward in a linear projection, the index will fall a total of 62% before it reaches the trend norm.
Why would it not? People must be able to afford housing from here on out.
Real estate doesn’t follow a linear trend.
Shockg why do you inject nonsense like this in response to a reasonable post?
Any trend can be represented by a line and any trend can have a linear projection.
(sorry for the formatting; data from Redfin)
Here are eleven homes (all 5+ bedroom, SFR, less than $800K) in south OC which sold for more than list price in the past three months:
ADDRESS CITY LIST PRICE LAST SALE PRICE
63 ENDLESS Vis Aliso Viejo 796950 800000
2 FIELD Pt Rancho Santa Margarita 760000 775000
24676 MONITA Cir Laguna Niguel 630500 639000
43 GROVESIDE Dr Aliso Viejo 799000 850000
9 BELCANTO Mission Viejo 647500 661000
6 BRONCO St Rancho Santa Margarita 599900 637000
1 MINFORD Cir Ladera Ranch 699000 703500
28001 LORETHA Ln Laguna Niguel 799000 820000
4 AMBERWICKE Rancho Santa Margarita 692000 740000
24 LYON Rdg Aliso Viejo 672500 685000
31 SYCAMORE CANYON Dr Rancho Santa Margarita 799000 810000
The average $/sqft was $254.
and next yr they all will be upside down
Already upsidedown but not realized !
What do you mean “already upsidedown but not realized”? I enjoy a good debate but don’t say stupid things like that.
cool view and sharpster living to much in the now !
Practical is living in 2006.
Seller concessions and/or realtor games.
If you don’t understand the game, get out or get burned.
This is incredible news for any market. Our market sales have increased, but prices have still not moved much higher.
It makes me wonder if the OC SFR median won’t hit $525,000 by the end of December. A 6% price increase between Nov 4 and Dec 31 isn’t out of the realm of possibilites. Christmas Cheer and all of that.
Hey, I’d like to say your nuts but anything can happen with such an artificial market.
I just don’t want to be holding the bag when when the FHA collapses, the tax credits go away, the artifically low martgage rates can no longer be supported by an insolvent govt and the banks are forced to actually move the massive shadow inventory they are sitting on out onto the market.
There is such little upside and such high risk for further collapse, I can’t see how it would make sense to buy right now.
This is a massive shell game right now that will only end with alot of pain.
I for one shall sit on the sidelines waiting - debt-free, with the freedom to act when the time is right.
People have to buy right now or else you will definately be priced out of the market. If you are happy being a renter the rest of your life, then just sit on the sidelines and watch the house prices go out of your reach. If you want to build equity for your future, buy now and watch your net worth go up $100K by 2012 when the OC median hits $600K.
Gunner gives a whole new meaning to the term shortsited !
Or move to Austin Tx…surround yourself with some value conscious Californians who already made the move…shocking really how many people from the Golden State live in Austin. Look up Kenn Renner…Former CA native now calls the Texas hill country home…Superb values…Excellent climate for Texas (sure it is hot in the summer) and just very cool people all around you. Or, you can continue to pay $250 + per square foot here. Not a tough choice at all.
He has a shortened viewpoint after riding the short bus to class all those years — as a result he is, yes, shortsighted.
It hurts when I am right and you are wrong. lol. That’s okay, there is always therapy and your silly humor on this blog that can heal your wounds.
If you feel so sure of it why don’t you buy some of the S&P futures biased on the Case Schiller index.
Reflect back on Jan. 1 on your comment and realize how silly and myopic it was on your part to feed into the new bubble hysteria. We are barely in 1992 compared to the 1990 crash..
2010 expect drop of 35 per cent
And how did u come to that conclusion. Please share your analysis.
You and sharpster living to much in the Now !
NODs should hit 10,000 by end of December which will not be out of your realm !
Deathgrip! Prices and sales up up up!
Welcome back Baghdad Bob.
Remember the Law of the Inertia…
If you’re not in the game to flip. This is still a very solid time to buy. 20 percent down on a 30 yr fixed is coming in at less than the average rent.
I hear next year and the year after that will be even better.
Dwoods, I agree but expect to get attacked for your asessment as it goes against the few remaining bear’s agenda.
Oh poor you.
Poor shocky. Considers disagreement an attack.
The market has disagreed with shocky for so long she suffers battle-fatigue.
Time for another name change. Maybe “shellshocked”.
No, But the constant name calling and insults thrown around by the bears are attacks. This blog is a joke.
Let them buy these places. It can be fodder for us to goof on them when we see the stories on here about them whining about losing their house because they can’t afford it. And then wanting a free handout to “save” their house.
Who will be trusted more on realtors for what they said the values of Housing market go up. The real estate baloon had already exploded. When the employment rate is still high and the economic rate is not recovered yet that are the factors to bring down the real estate values.
Whose been buying houses?
Lol, tic, tic, tic
“To get White to sign, the sellers - who were real estate agents - agreed to make the first two mortgage payments for Ms. White. According to the article, White received $40,000 in cash out at closing - and the seller made over $200,000 on the house. Naturally it went into foreclosure and Ms. White is back living in an apartment”.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/11/wapo-liar-loan-example.html
And the death grip goes on and on and on….