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O.C. home price seen rising 10.9% in year
November 20th, 2009, 12:02 am · 174 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner
 $532,000 |
 $613,000 |
 $1,450,000 |
First American CoreLogic’s computers say …
- Orange County homes prices, in the year ending September 2010, will appreciate 10.94%. Last month, First American projected a 9.53% annual again for year ending August 2010.
- Orange County homes prices — including distressed sales — declined 6.74% in the year ended in September vs. 7.92% rate of annual decline in August.
- Excluding distressed transactions, Orange County homes prices year-over-year fell 6.14% in September vs. August’s -7.07%.
- California prices? Down 12.16% annually (with distressed); down 6.95% (without.) Forecast? Up 9.36% in a year with distressed included; +8.24% without.
- National home prices — including distressed sales — declined by -9.8% annual rate in September. (Excluding distressed sales, national year-over-year prices declined by 6%.)
- In year ending September 2010, forecast appreciation for national home prices — excluding distressed — is 1.1%.
- When distressed sales were included Nevada (-25.5%) was the nation’s worst for year ended September!
Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic: “While the improvement in the year-over-year decline is encouraging, high foreclosure rates and increasing distressed sales are likely to continue to hold prices down.”
Recent outlooks:
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Hello Mr. Lansner, how are things in la la land?
This new site SUCKS & w/ stories like these, well, byby ocr
In one tear lansner will be shocked SHOCKED I SAY that prices have fallen another 13%.
And you and the rest of the drooling doom and gloom goons will have no where to go to be “heard”.
The angrier you get, the closer to foreclosure you are!
http://www.reuters.com/article/email/idUSTRE5AI38320091119?ref=patrick.net
Except you hang on every word and respond every single day
1988 prices ARE IN THE BAG!
1978 prices in the bag!!!
We need to get back to 2008 prices first.
haven’t you read the news? way past 2008. no wonder you refuse to wake up - dreaming is easier than reality
Yes with all the people behind on their mortgages and all the lay offs, prices can only go up. How much longer until freedom communications bites the bullet?
Our goal is to give our audience as many real estate reports as possible for and about the local market. I don’t expect every person to agree with every outlook. That’s why we allow comments.
First American is a major player in the real estate business and if their analysis shows this, why should we not report it?
Last week, we reported that PMI Group called Orange County one of the nation’s riskiest market! (http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/11/12/oc-housing-in-riskiest-condition/43527/)
Your blogger,
Jon Lansner
A number of different “news sources” is great, but more responsible reporting would add to this type of info with a comment such as this: “while a normal year of appreciation is about 7% and many serious challenges still face the local market, this group oddly proclaims an 11% rise without detailing some of the more important factors of their computer model or how this rise will occur in light of the problems in the market”.
Also I think PMI put OC as tied for THE most riskiest market.
Jon,
I can only speak for myself, but while most newspapers and blogs are reporting important and serious fact finding news on housing, this blog is constantly giving out absurd headlines that seem to show a continued bias.
You would have thought that the OC Register would have learned a valuable lesson with their many years of misreporting from the likes of Gary Watts and Pat Veiling, the “we got it wrong” team.
Unfortunately, nothing has changed in my view from the same rhetoric that was being printed back in 2005 to the present time, with a standard theme of “prices always go up” no matter how obvious it is that they won’t.
I spend most of my time on other news sites now to stay informed, because most of the economic facts point to a clear “prices go down” reality.
A fix from a simple mind like Shockg’s would be to abandon the blog altogether and let the lying and corrupt realtors takeover and taint it with a cesspool of nonsense, but how long would that last before the blog completely dies?
Jon,
We all know that many of these real estate “analysts” are cheer leaders for the RE industry. To be fair…why don’t you include their past “predictions” also. It’s always nice to see someone’s track record, and I’m sure it’s buy, buy, buy and real estate always goes up.
I wonder if First American CoreLogic’s computer program accounts for the 12.5% unemployment rate here in California or the record number of foreclosures.
mroe reports the better, but wheresthebeef has a point - each source you cite shoudl also include past predictions. that is, after all, what real journalists do, unless OCR does not care about the quality of its sources and just wants to spit something up to fill in space for a day
Or at least cite what the possible conflicts of interest might be (i.e. major ad revenue from real estate).
Jon, due to the large numbers of angry govt haters on this site, this kind of article gets the biggest response by far………keep it up!
angry govt. haters?? Let me guess, Obama supporter? Union employee? Govt. employee or govt. handout recipient? Am I getting warm, trough feeder?
Not even close.
Remember Christopher Cagan who was then the chief economist of Core Logic and who during the bubble time claimed the inflated home prices were fair and not-out-of-line with fundamentals! My brother-in-law read his paper and too believed Core Logic was legit and fair and subsequently bought his home for 1.4 m. Ouch! These are snake-oil salemen. Their interests are aligned with the housing industry.
This is the reason I moved my family out of there. While everyone in the country is trying to hang onto their jobs, saving pennies for a rainy day, prioritizing their lifestyles, you people in the OC are thinking that your house might appreciate over 10% in one year?!
You have to be kidding me.
No. Many that lost their jobs need their largest asset to appreciate so that they can sell it. Calm down.
GetOver, they just got their articles mixed up. This should have been in the Business section under, “OC Unemployment Seen Rising 10.9% in Year.”
See ya….
But yet here you are clicking on this article, posting comments and getting upset. You must still have some interest in these kind of posts. I too moved out of California, while the getting was still good, but read these blogs to get the pulse of the people. Time to get over yourself.
Well, If you call reading a blog dominated by angry tea partyin’, blog spammin”, Obama hatin’, WoW playin’, paranoid thinkin’, maniacs with too much time on their hands “getting the pulse of the people”, you came to the right place.
LLLLLOOLLLLLL!!!
and yet you continue to respond to these same people every single day. Hmmm.
I know……strange, isn’t it……….
admitting you have a problem is step 1 - now time for you to seek help
Can I just skip to Step 12….?
That’s kind of like home debtors skipping mortgage payments, and then wanting it to be all better with a 200% return within 2 yrs… Ain’t gonna happen…, but you can certainly try.
It’s like bears skipping the thought process between “I shoulda bought OC RE in Jan. 09″ and “The government did this to me!!!”.
I guess I am not a “bear” then.
Nope, I don’t think you are.
Yeah the term bear implies they will eventually buy and we all know that SC2 doesn’t have the means to buy on his $50K a year salary.
Care to wager $10k poor shockg? Waiting. tic tic.
Put your money where your mouth is. Oh, forgot - you poor bitter man.
The funny thing is that I’m not angry at all about it. I think it’s hilarious that folks think their precious stucco homes will go up in value. The only way that the median will go up is if many upper end homes drop prices, and those start selling, pulling the median sales up. But I do not think individual home prices will be going up. CA unemployment 12.5
the only person angry is VOR since everybody else is not angry except VOR
Good, then you won’t mind if we make tens of thousands of dollars on our homes in the next year or so. What the heck, right?
Ahhhh, I see the logic…..
go ahead - my RE investments are doing just fine
GOY, is absolutely right. We’ve reached peak credit possibilities and are continually reliant on low interest rates and FHA loan funding for the market to survive at this level. There will be no job growth or income increases in the near future. The best we can hope for now is that Chinese continue to fund our massive borrowing.
What will home prices do when unemployment improves?
what will happen with employment improves and people find a job that pays 30% less than what they earned before?
Continue to go up as they have been?
Sure… after being out of work, the same person makes 30% less, but is willing and “able” to pay 11% more for the same thing. Don’t think so - you can’t contort simple math, unless you don’t understand simple math to begin with…
Looks like someone needs to “Control-Alt-Delete” First American CoreLogic’s computers.
How can you exclude distressed on so much of these, when distressed accounts for a large number of sales, with more distressed on the way. Distressed homes must be part of the equation.
What do you care?……..you don’t even live here!!!
lllllooooollllll
Because I find it all rather amusing, and entertain myself when I’m bored by reading all of your (everyones) arguments all day.
I do care, but not because of money I have invested there, I care because I find it absolutely hilarious that people live such fashion island lifestyles on a tjmaxx budget. All of the hopes and dreams of buying that new Mercedes depends on home appreciation. I am waiting for the day when the tide goes out and we see who is wearing a bathing suit, all because I’m curious…. I can laugh about watching the house of cards fall because I have absolutely nothing invested in it, but my time…to read the trash.
If that’s what they want, then that’s what they want. It’s a gross generalization, of course, but some do choose to chase that dream. Who cares? Their time, their money, their credit, their life.
I agree that distressed sales should be included, but I guess it’s their attempt at normalizing the data. The sheer volume of distressed sales has an impact on the value of non-distressed these days, so I’m not sure how that makes sense.
They meant to forecast what unemployment was going to be in 2010, it was an honest mistake.
Hail Mary: Great minds!
10.9% would be a major improvement.
If I understand their data business, Corelogic makes money by selling data to the RE industry . . . so smiley-faced outlooks will take precedence over reality.
Funny thing about computers is that the models are designed by humans.
If a person decides the likelihood of important issues by flipping coins, they would be considered simplistic and foolish. However, when ‘economists’ make critical decisions by flipping bits, the masses are in awe at their technologic prowess and wisdom.
When you create a model, you’re weighting the determinant factors in subjective manner .. . so you’re largely determining the outcome before running. A model that predicts 10% growth is ignoring or downplaying important factors like:
‘increasing unemployment rates’,
‘present and future foreclosure rates’
‘consumer sentiment’
‘success of mortgage workouts’
At the same time, this model must be heavily weighting these factors:
‘people are gullible and will buy into the next bubble’
‘everyone has cash in their mattress just like me’
‘10% housing increase occur through 14% inflation’
‘Corelogic has a treasured history of delivering smiley faces to the industry’
If i understand your business correctly you are trying to make money on housing by hoping it drops 50%. So doom and gloom predictions will take precendence over reality.
You clearly don’t understand much. You do realize that almost no one here takes you seriously, right?
They figure out what they what the results to be and design their model around that.
Yep. Why would RE investors pay for studies that would torpedo their business model?
Sloken like a true paranoid delusional narcissist.
spoken
Unfortunately that is exactly what they did. Start with the answer your customer wants and plug in what it takes to get it. That’s the problem with folks who sell forecast. Take a look at their past 2006 forecast, it’s a joke.
“Paranoid” and “delusional” at least make sense in the context of you dismissing Tom’s “spoken” comment. But “narcissist”? Are you just using any invective that springs to mind?
I think if we tried, people, we could definitely elevate the level of discourse in this blog’s comments.
whuh?
Nice post above. Hopefully they are looking at past downturns to find which data correlates the most with a turn around. I agree that they are probably placing too much emphasis on certain factors, and not enough on others. Unfortunately, the article doesn’t provide the underlying assumptions for their prediction, so we have no way to intelligently discuss it. It’s just agree or disagree.
It’s very simple from someone who is educated with a PH.D in economics. The tax credit has kept the market a float. The reality is, when this dies down, the flood will come. Nobody is buying and if you buy now, you will have to stay in this home for years to make any profit or equity.
Anybody who puts 20% down now, will lose the 20% in a year or so.
Bad time to buy
“Nobody is buying”
Oh, is that right?
I love how First American CoreLogic didn’t program their computers to factor in the failed governments attempts to artificially manipulate the market and the 7m+ foreclosures soon to be coming down the pipe.
“Foreclosures will keep rising through 2010″
“Home foreclosures are likely to keep climbing through all of next year”
“The level of delinquencies and repossessed homes had jumped to a record”
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mortgage-defaults20-2009nov20,0,1052221.story
Everyone else gets it!
Have we got our Orange Counties mixed up? There is more than one nationally. A 10.9% increase can’t be for Orange County, California
The government has become the new subprime lender, encouraging people to take huge risks at taxpayer expense. This suggests that prices could very well go up…until the new subprime bubble collapses.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/108207/with-fha-help-easy-loans-in-expensive-areas?sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
LANSER IS ONLY REPORTING THE NEWS FOR GOD SAKE!
He was doing the same before the crash. Could he have done differently, is my question.
I know this slow, but clear sign of recovery won’t sit well with the ultra conservative Libertarian-esque “we want society to fall apart so we can live like the road warrior with guns and gold” loonies, but oh well. It’ll be a slow road back from 8 years of economic failure by the Bush White House and deregulation, but here we go my little patriot friends ;)
IT IS UNCHILVARY TO ATTACK THE MESSENGER!
Please see Mr Flemings prior work experience listed below straight from his companies website.
This moron was at Fannie Mae running it into the ground prior to joining his new firm, he obviously must have been fired. After all his responsibilities included “…property valuation models designed to drive collateral assessment applications used in mortgage origination, quality control, and loss mitigation…
Need I remind anyone what happened to Fannie Mae. Just for fun here is the latest result reported a couple of weeks ago. “…government-run mortgage financing giant, Fannie Mae, lost $18.9 billion during the third quarter. The hard-to-swallow three-month deficit has led the GSE back to the Treasury Department’s door with a request in hand for another $15 billion.” Nice work Mr. Fleming, good luck in your next career.
Mark Fleming is chief economist for First American CoreLogic, America’s largest provider of advanced property and ownership information, analytics, and services. Fleming leads the risk management economics and research team, responsible for developing collateral and credit risk models—the basis of the company’s risk management product suite—through monitoring the real estate market, identifying real estate and mortgage market trends, and analyzing the data in light of demographics and the economy.
Prior to First American CoreLogic, Fleming worked for Fannie Mae, developing property valuation models designed to drive collateral assessment applications used in mortgage origination, quality control, and loss mitigation. He has published research on spatial econometrics and presented at many international conferences.
Fleming graduated from Swarthmore College with a BA in economics and holds MS and PhD degrees in agricultural and resource economics from the University of Maryland.
Jon, get them back in the worst way by shutting down the blog or taking away the comments.
shockg would have nothing else to do then
Good idea, maybe then we won’t have to see all the Realturd comments saying “now is the time to buy” when 1988 prices are in the bag.
Go back to making 1.5% commission on Stabba Ana home sales, junior.
I have yet to see one “realtard” (well except for Gunner) come here and say “Now is the time to buy! Buy now or be priced out forever!, etc” But the bears sure do repeat these tired lines here over and over.
you lack 1st grade reading skills
SC2, did you finish high school? You come off as being uneducated.
Put up your 10k. Waiting. Chicken.
How about this poor man.
$10k bet I can afford a median priced house.
Very simple - even you can comprehend.
Waiting poor man.
Or are you going to chicken out, again.
You sure showed me. LOL
so I guess you are going to be a chicken and hide? Thought so.
You two should just make sweet love already.
Page clicks are the source of revenue for the OC Register, so that makes no sense shock. Every comment leads to a page refresh, therefore higher click counts, and more revenue.
yet another example of how shockg fails to understand simple aspects of how things work
Correction: impressions, not clicks.
Artificial markets are so divisive.
And so are the posters here.
some even have up to 3 “alias” with all questions/answers ready.
they suffer chronic-syndromes of mental weakness.
yeah like rants/foolish/bogey. Lee/Eat it/Brain. JC/Jake/JJ
You well know…that’s truth, and you’re one of them.
What a theater. with best “Buffons” in town
If you own and can afford to keep making payments do so.
If your underwater / lost your job / whatever excuse dont.If your smart and a renter save your money,your king of the hill.
The public is more concerned about John Kerry’s daughter DUI and finding the link to her 2005 Cannes film festival exposed nipp photos.
Hate the new website, can not find anything.
Scotty don’t…..
California is now at 12.5% unemployment. Wait, tell me again how home prices rise if now only 87.5% of Californian’s are employed?
1 in 5 people are underemployed in California, and that is an optimistic number. It would be fun to see what they assume for unemployment in their model. Most likely they don’t include it, or they plugged in a fake number.
Unemployement is not a static figure. What will it be this time next year?
Curious how First American’s past prediction of -20% was heralded as “accurate”, “correct”, and “reasonably determined” - yet when that same group predicts any upturn they are “biased” or theres “something wrong with their computer”…
http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc091116.htm
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/11/few-house-price-forecasts.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akUXumKHhBNw&pos=3
I forget, were there any ALT-A or Option ARMs used in OC?
If / when the FHA goes bust, say goodnight, Gracie.
The Alt-A’s are being modified en masse. Principal reduction and all.
Bingo. They are all biased but the contributors here are not. LMAO.
including you and your agenda to stop drowning, but the deeper you are underwater, the more difficult it is to survive….
How can we slow down this appreciation? I haven’t finished buying my long-term real estate investments and I don’t want to pay more than I already have. Would you home buyers go start Christmas shopping instead!
Yesterday, the passing of the Grayson/Paul amendment is the beginning of the END for this little PONZI CHARADE.
This past week was a bad one for housing:
–FHA joins Fan/Fre as insolvent Govt entity
–MBA reports: US serious delinquency rate at record high, 14.4%
–Fl, Calif, Az and Nev accounted for 43% of all foreclosures started in Q309
–Combined Loan to Values Swell to 107% in July 2009: Equifax
–30 and 60 day prime fixed buckets at record delinquency levels
–MBA Nov. weekly apps. report: The 4 week moving average for seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, is down 5.8 percent, despite record low mort rates.
Cheers!
Thanks for that N. Bubble…..oops, I mean Bogie.
giggity giggity goo counselor, aka Mr Inspector Clouseau. Is that all ya got? No energy for confutation today?
Puhleeeze, I’m not half the bear of the Bubbs’. His thesis is pricing going down in a straight line. I’m more of a sawtooth pattern in a downward trend kind of guy. So, you see, in mine, the bulls get a bone on the upticks :) as I believe in balance, but the trend always prevails/dictates. Same with trading.
Speaking of the esteemed Mr Bubbs’, why is he not posting? Was he blocked?
His ‘thesis” was: “How can I cash in on the crash?”. That was pretty much the extent of his original thoughts. The only people who had esteem for him was the dry cleaner.
He was everywhere…….now he’s nowhere.
Blocked or he finally bot.
kind of like tracker…
calm down everyone. dont worry, its friday.
the headline is misleading. it should read:
O.C. MEDIAN price seen rising 10.9% in year.
Its true, that the median can rise as high-end home prices fall.
So the CoreLogic data should be correct. They’re just trying to spin it. They shouldn’t be saying HOME prices up. They should be saying MEDIAN prices up. There’s a difference.
exactly
that would mean OCR would have to report actual facts rather than sponsored sensationalism - ain’t gonna happen
Maybe they aren’t referencing the median at all and meant what was printed. Perhaps the blogger can verify.
Jon,
I have a simple question for you.
Are you a copy and paste Journalist our are you a true “Ed Morrow” Journalist?
Frankly, and I know I speak for most of the bloggers here your articles are so off base it’s pathetic.
A true journalist, as others have pointed out would not only copy and paste a companies fantasy predictions, they would follow that up with specific historical data to prove or disprove it.
My only conclusion that you never, ever counter the copy-paste press releases that companies like First American, Dataquick, CAR or NRA, provide you are because you’re overly concerned about upsetting the apple cart of advertisers, primarily those in the real estate arena.
I have been a licensed real estate agent in OC since the 80’s. I own a couple of successful businesses outside the real estate circle in OC. Everyone that knows me, knows me as one the most optimistic people around. However, for the first time in my life I am actually waffling from seeing the glass as half full to seeing the glass as half empty.
Hands down the articles presented by you and other reporters here in the OCR are so out of touch with reality of what is really going on it is if you people are using a Ouija board and a cork board with darts to come up with these stories.
I laugh every day when I get emails from CAR, or NAR on how great everything is. Better yet it’s even funnier when I get my monthly CAR and NAR magazines in the mail. Letters from the editors, editorial columnist articles written generally two too three-month prior to press always come back wacked and so off base you have to wonder how these people actual survive in the real world.
Jon get real, First American is going to say anything they can to make everyone feel “Warm and Fuzzy,” it’s their livelihood at stake.
You as a Journalist should be countering that with facts. For example unemployment rates, state deficit short falls, modified mortgages from 18 months ago that are starting to go delinquent, inability to secure loans, ARM’s that are about to adjust up in the 10’s of thousands in the next 90 days. Teachers Unions that are pushing for a repeal of Prop 13, and 65. Increased vehicle registration, business taxes, workers comp. increases. Every one of these is factors that should be included in the overall picture. Oh, and least we forget the 60 billion dollar deficit that the state will report come this spring when they start the Annual Budget Approval Clown Talks.
I have another simple question for you Jon. Do you ever get out of your office and drive around? You should! For example drive around in the industrial areas of Irvine. Some 50% of the industrial building in that community sits empty. How about all those new modern, gou, gou, gaga multi story apartment complexes that are now sitting empty in Orange, Anaheim and Irvine.
So do us all a favor and do some honest “Ed Morrow,” reporting. Trust me in another 18 months when the final nail in the coffin of the OCR is hammered in your going to want to be at the top of your game if your going to find another job.
Ummm, Nospin, the thing is…….is that this is a blog where Lansner posts articles/releases written or compiled by outside sources and the occasional interview. It’s not a column. It’s not a story. It’s not an editorial page. It’s not a political opinion page (at least from his side). It’s not “journalism” per se.
You can argue with the choice of which articles are posted here, but Lanser is not writing these pieces. (note that at the top it says “Posted by Jon Lansner”, not Written…..)
Savi??
(OK Jon, you can pay me off later………)
Ummmm…VOR, the thing is, a blog implies that value is being added. If all Lansner is doing is copying and pasting, a Twitter feed handled by an intern would suffice.
it amazes me that you keep reading a blog you disagree with so much.
Yeah, I’m sure why I read it, but after three years, hard to give up, I guess.
why do you care - you continue to respond to people you seem to hate b/c you are jealous that they did not buy at the peak like you did. poor bitter man.
Then go elsewhere so you can get what you want…..your agenda served up on a platter.
I am perfectly happy with the data - only morons like you accept it as is and do not consider what the data actually represents in order to support your agenda.
kinda like you and the others looking the other way when the median was overstating the declines? Odd that you speak up about it now. Please explain the timing.
If you don’t understand by now, you never will. Carry on with your permanent confusion.
Great reponse from a biased speculator.
your response demonstrates your permanent confusion
can’t help it if your limited comprehension abilities prevent you from understanding
What else is love but understanding and rejoicing in the fact that another person lives, acts, and experiences otherwise than we do?
VoiceofReason says:
November 20, 2009 at 9 amJon, due to the large numbers of angry govt haters on this site, this kind of article gets the biggest response by far………keep it up!
+1 Jon
VoR, I agree, keep it up. Refuting this type of data is a cakewalk.
That’s the beauty of it. Any data, any story, any person can be questioned. That’s why none of this means anything.
None of this means anything?
The government has lost its massive, federal gamble on the political cause of homeownership. The gamble began its implosion in 2006, is continuing today, and has consumed 1.2 trillion $’s worth of monetized debt (to-date) to achieve housings’ current price level.
–Can this continue? No
–Can the private sector infuse the capital equivalence to sustain prices? No.
–Is housing done? Yes
Have a great weekend
Nothing written in this blog proves, disproves, legitimizes, debunks, explains, or clarifies the issues. If I want to about national and/or international economics, politics or policy, I’m not comin’ here bucko!! Although it does entertain.
See???
Hey LiarLoan, this one’s for you :)
Enjoy!
‘Quote of the Day’ comes to us via Bloomberg’s Alice Schroeder:
“We’re in the midst of a deflationary trend that is temporarily being masked by inventory restocking and free lunches like Cash for Clunkers. Consumers are done with borrowing. They’ll keep refueling the deflation by going through their attics and garages to find stuff they can sell on Ebay to raise cash.”
Good stuff. Now who is Alice Schroeder and why should I listen to her?
Deflation is temporarily masked. Yes indeed. This happened to Japan right? All the masking going on….
this blog has jumped the shark- its been overun by a bunch
of myopic- selfish- intelligence challenged realtards–
like the fools who dont support ron pauls bill to audit the fed
why not audit the fed? what the f*** are they trying to hide?
oh yeah- mortgages on homes that are all underwater
audit the fed — then end it
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34018204
like people like shockg who fell for 10% commission scams…. classic. no wonder shockg is underwater - no business sense, at all.
What Geithner Got Right
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/20/opinion/20brooks.html?em
“The financial sector is in much better shape than it was then. TARP money is being repaid, and the debate now is what to do with the billions that were never needed. It now seems clear that nationalization would have been an unnecessary mistake — potentially expensive and dangerously disruptive.”
NY Times opinion piece??? LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
The only reason the financial sector APPEARS to be in better shape is due to the FASB ACCOUNTING RULE CHANGE, earlier in the year = financial sector NOT REALLY in much better shape.
btw, Geithner’s toast Lol. I wouldn’t put any stock in what he has to say, period.
The Democrats will most likely run into trouble the next election cycle because, like the Republicans, are depending on trickle down economics. Bailing out billionaires and multi-millionaires just isn’t going to jumpstart the economy.
“NY Times opinion piece??? LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL”
Perhaps if it were printed in a bubble blog you’d more open to it.
Who is arguing that Wall Street is struggling when the bailouts have mostly gone to them and their losses are being socialized? What exactly is new here? It’s mainstreet that is struggling.
Liar Loan, Ahhh you need to do your homework.
Most of the banks that recieved the Tarp money never did anything with it except let it sit in the Reserve Bank making them money.
May I suggest “Google” and “google News” to better enlighten your misguided brain.
Sounds a little strange to me considering nothing else in the OC economy is getting better.
yawn
only a complete fool- like liar brain-
would believe anything comin out of tax cheat timmy geithners
mouth- the guy is a proven imbicile- born with a silver spoon
up his arce- never worked at a real job his entire life- who had
the nerve to give billions of tax payer money to bail out the investment bank crooks nice guy-
the mighty orange countys
unemployment rate continues to go up and these figures are
probably as phony a two dollar bill anyway– BUT miraculously
real estate has bottomed– only a fool would believe that–
aint that right fools
http://economy.freedomblogging.com/2009/11/20/oc-oct-unemployment-jumps-to-96/
rants-
You did read the article I hope?
“Local employers added 8,200 jobs from September to October”
“Orange County continues to be the only Southern California county with unemployment under double digits. ”
Also, 9.6% unempoyment is lower than 9.8% hit in August. What does that mean for home prices?
http://economy.freedomblogging.com/2009/10/16/ocs-jobless-rate-dips-to-94-in-september/
From the same article:
“However the unemployment rate also eased because 12,800 people — often described as “discouraged workers” — left the work force after giving up on finding a job..”
That was in September. 8,200 jobs were created in October, so that’s a net 4,600 discouraged workers now.
Also from September:
“While the numbers are still bad, Orange County economy appears to have found a bottom and is beginning to claw its way back.”
Excuse me, but wasn’t it the Bush Cheney boys who gave all the bank crooks the money?
Haha, don’t bother rants (aka foolishness) with specifics.
thanks liar and shockg- aka dumb and dumber
my article was from november bird-brain- are you stuck on stupid
note to self- never try to debate an imbicile
now to the REAL NEWS which you wont get reading lansners
realtor propagand blog–
the ron paul bill paased a severe roadblock and may well be on the way to passage- and oh boy look out below if it does cause
all those cockroaches are gonna be thrown out into the light
for all the world to see—- can you say higher interest rates
immediately–
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31510813/#34061510
Rants thanks for bringing truth and justice to this blog with your cut and paste jobs. LMAO
“my article was from november bird-brain- are you stuck on stupid”
Oh REALLY??? They have unemployment calculated for the month of November??
“note to self- never try to debate an imbicile”
That’s great advice. I won’t debate you any further.
Without having seen it, I bet $5 that Core Logic’s computer is some kind of gigantic econometric regression equation that misses the biggest factor affecting home prices.
GOVERNMENT POLICY.
Tell me to what the feds are going to do and I’ll tell you what home prices are going to be.
jump where? down the hill or into a trash can?… hehehe…
Liar Loan says:
November 20, 2009 at 5 pmAlso from September:
“While the numbers are still bad, Orange County economy appears to have found a bottom and is beginning to claw its way back.”
More bulk layoffs to come in OC when companies come to terms with the fact that they will not make Q4, and Q1 #’s. All due to continued demand deficiencies and top-line revenue degradation.
Further cost-cutting will be the only option to bridge the gap. We’re already seeing the groundwork prepped for the next round.
Bogey,
Where do you get all this techno lingo???
Translation……………….. You’re guessing….
Easily explained, Core Logic still has the little clock on their computer set for 2005.
Yeah 2005 seems to be the only year in existence for the bears.
2009-2010 = people still losing their homes at a record rate.
Did you get evicted from your 1 bedroom apartment again?
Is that all you have? Pathetic.
Maybe its not a computer model at all, it could be one of those magic 8 ball random number generators. There are too many things in play. I’ll stick with the folks that predicted the bubble in the first place and most continue to predict future declines.
According to Redfin, the average house selling price per square foot for zip 92679, that’s RSM, was $261 in May 2009. In October it was $286,
Why?
That percentage gain is much smaller compared to other reported OC numbers, and despite fewer foreclosures selling… that’s not good.
Just to clarify my question, why did the average price per square foot increase fairly steadily in the past five or so months? I can see the average price going up if more expensive homes were sold but why has the price per square foot gone up?
Don’t ask SC2 about specific details because he doesn’t have answers. His typical response is to hurl insults.
Why do you mention me when I didn’t even respond - I must really be in your head, I guess you hate it when someone has your number and all you can do is argue generalities without specifics since you have nothing else to say.
And to answer the question rather than make negative comments like shockg - Hunts - look at Matt’s report re foreclosures - median increase is directly in line with decreasing number of sales of foreclosures, and, higher end continues to fall.
And, since cheaper houses are the houses that are selling for the most part, cheaper/smaller houses naturally have a higher PPSF, compared to larger, more expensive homes that have much lower PPSF
Obama the worst president ever=the most debt ever?
I live in Newport Coast in a still overpriced neighborhood where a home that originally sold for $1.3 just went for just under $700K. There are 3 similar models to the one that sold for $700K still listed for $1.3-1.5. I rent from a nice guy who paid a little over a million for the home I live in. He knows he can’t sell the place for anywhere near what he paid. On my street, 4 homes are officially for sale, 2 are REOs and 3 are rentals. I’ve found a common theme in the homes that were bought on my street. 1) Several homes were bought by several family members pooling their money to purchase a home they otherwise couldn’t afford. 2) Several homes were bought by realtors who basically pay themselves to buy and sell homes and they thought they would flip the homes. 3) Several homes were bought by investors who got liar loans thinking they could flip the homes for a profit. 4) Several of the homes were bought by older professionals who sunk a lot of their net worth into these homes in order to afford them.
The common theme I have found in speaking to the people who bought the homes in my 5 year old Newport Coast neighborhood is that they can’t come to grips that no matter how nice the area is (and Newport and the surrounding area are great places to live), not enought people in SoCal, or the entire United States can afford the homes here. My estimate is that 60-75% of the people on my street could not afford their homes if they went by the typical 2.5x gross income to get a mortgage.
I am lucky to gross over $250K per year, which means I could afford a home of around $750K if I put 20% down. That said, last time I looked, around 1% of the people in the United States have incomes over $200K. And speaking for myself, I’m happy to rent for a significant period of time. I am not compelled to pay for something that was artificially inflated over the past 5-10 years. Real wages have been flat for the past 10 years.
My comment to the OC Register is that anyone can repost a press release from a company. In fact, it seems the OC Register posts a lot of “releases” from self serving companies that think people are going to take their analysis at face value. I see very little “real reporting” from the paper anymore.
I have worked too hard to get where I am to over extend myself for a house and quite frankly I’m willing to move when I get closer to retirement. I’m spending Thanksgiving in the Dallas area where I can get a new “mini mansion” that would cost $3 million in Newport for around $800K. As much as I like the beach, I don’t need to live by one.
I think we will witness a meltdown of all real estate over the coming years because there are no more suckers for this mult-level marketing scam.
The real estate market will correct itself when the price reaches at point when the average family can afford to buy. The market is driven by suplly and demand. There is no demand when a family has to enter into a contract of sale that will eventually ruin them and their family. When will the market go back to a convential loan at a fair price, perhaps never here again. Save your money and do not be fooled into buying something that you cannot afford. Let all the investors buy things up and ruin the dreams of hard working families to ever own real property here again. God Bless All of You!