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O.C. home pricing near longest rise in 4 years
November 6th, 2009, 10:05 am · 96 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner
| Slice | Price | Yr. ago | Sales | Yr. ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houses | $495,000 | +4.2% | 2,018 | +5.7% |
| Condos | $308,500 | +4.6% | 917 | +8.8% |
| New | $500,000 | +3.1% | 168 | -19.6% |
| All O.C. | $435,000 | +3.6% | 3,103 | +4.8% |
For the 22 business days ending Oct. 16 – DataQuick’s latest homebuying report — Orange County saw …
- $435,000 median selling price that is $6,000 above September (+1.4%) and would mark the 6th consecutive month of price gains — longest winning streak since 7 up months ended Aug. 2005.
- Price is +3.6% vs. a year ago and -33% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000.
- The most recent median is 18% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — a current bottom that was -43% below the peak.
- Prices fell on a year-over-year basis from Sept. 2007 through August. (Worst at -31.5% in August 2008.)
- Single-family homes resell for 33% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while condos sell 34% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 42% below their February ‘05 top.
- In this most recent period, O.C. shoppers bought 3,103 residences — that is +4.8% vs. year-ago buying activity. (From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.)
- September was 15th straight month of sales gains vs. the year-ago period. That follows 33 consecutive months where sales failed to beat the previous year’s pace.
How did your neighborhood fare? Check our ZIP-by-ZIP data HERE!
“Other real estate trends:
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Per DataQuick, Single-Family Median Home Price:
~2006~
$690,000 = Feb ~ Watts 15% “In The Bag” for SFH
$695,000 = Mar
$705,000 = Apr
$705,000 = May
$700,000 = Jun
$699,000 = Jul ~ Watts revises forecast to “11%” for SFH
$685,000 = Aug
$680,000 = Sep
$665,000 = Oct
$660,000 = Nov
$665,000 = Dec
~2007~
$675,000 = Jan ~ Watts forecast “7%” SFH
$675,000 = Feb
$695,000 = Mar
$720,000 = Apr
$695,000 = May
$734,000 = Jun ~ Peak of O.C. Ponzi Scheme
$718,000 = Jul
$710,000 = Aug
$655,000 = Sep
$650,000 = Oct
$655,000 = Nov
$600,000 = Dec
~2008~
$583,250 = Jan ~ Watts declares “Pent up Demand”
$575.000 = Feb
$570,000 = Mar
$555,000 = Apr
$537,000 = May
$550,000 = Jun ~ Watts apologizes “I Got it Wrong”
$515,000 = Jul
$500,000 = Aug
$480,000 = Sep ~ Rants “1998 Prices” In The Bag!
$480,000 = Oct
$430,000 = Nov
$425,000 = Dec
~2009~
$418,250 = Jan
$434,500 = Feb
$431,500 = Mar
$430,000 = Apr
$475,000 = May
$485,000 = June
$490,000 = July
$500,000 = Aug
$500,000 = Sep
$500,000 = Oct 6
$495,000 = Oct 13
$495,000 = Oct 16
So far, per DataQuick, this loss represents a $239,000 collapse in single-family home prices from the temporary, June 2007 high. And the beat goes on … and on … and on!
Lee,
Not sure if you are a tax payer or not,(need to have income to pay)
but you can bet all of those new homers/and old, are thankful for your contributions to the general fund, as they are rewarded with advantageous home ownership tax credits. Please keep paying rent to the man, and cutting and pasting the same information which shows your predictions to be wrong
These people you talk about are down hundreds of thousands of dollars and their credit is shot.
Only a realtor would call people that are dead broke advantageous.
Lee you are tool. The data no longer supports your hopes and dreams. Find a new angle.
“Lee you are tool. The data no longer supports your hopes and dreams. Find a new angle”
7 million in default
1 million Option Arm’s resetting
Unemployment going to 11% and climbing next year
25 million projected foreclosures before all is done
It’s quite obvious that you are the tool!
Lee, how about posting your point instead of numbers showing rising SFMHP data… I think we’re all a little confused. What exactly do you mean by, “and the beat goes on.. and on… and on…”? Prices keep rising, and rising, and rising? Help me out here!
Also, maybe he could post more years of data so we can see how prices are still 50% higher than 10 years ago.
And a 50% increase from 10 years ago represents a problem. If you expect that rate to continue, all new buyers will be “priced out” as we have already seen. Its not sustainable.
So it’s a problem when home prices are falling… and it’s a problem when home prices are rising. Damn, I think we’re all screwed!
Nonsense. That’s a 4.14% compounded rate of appreciation per year, right in line with historical averages.
Gold is up 363% from 10 years ago.
50% vs. 363%
And you can sell it whenever you want.
Meanwhile, liarloan went the hard way and is now stuck in an underwater mess he can’t seem to get out of.
You can’t write funnier stuff than this!!!
How many in the Forbes 400 got rich off of gold again?
Naw, showing 10 years of data goes against Lee’s agenda.
Are you really that clueless?
Commodities account for the majority of billionaires in the world.
Why can’t I have a conversation with someone semi-intelligent in here?
Bill you tricky devil. I didn’t say commodities, I said gold. How many got rich off gold again?
I’m not going to explain it.
How many people made Forbes list by buying a condo in OC during a bubble?
You win the dunce of the year award again!
Umm.. Bill Gross comes to mind.
Yeah, I guess your right, he never made it rich by buying bonds or anything.
He made his fortune by buying a 1 bed/1bath condo.
Your plan should work out fine!
Oh, it will work out fine. Renters like yourself will pay for it.
Yes, some renter will be paying 1/4 of what you did for it soon.
I just hope you leave the sinks and linoleum for them!
@ LOL RIBSPLITTER @ !!!!
is it time to start selling to the people that where foreclosed on yet? round and round we go.
Ata boy Jon,
All it takes is a “RE recovery” story to kick the bear anger into overdrive. This ought to get 100 or so responses and last well into the weekend. Now, you could REALLY get a feeding frenzy going by posting an all out “buy now or else” post by, say, the NAR. Although I’d personally rather see a positive prediction from your lefty friends over at Chapman “we run in our underwear” University. THAT would cinch it for me!
DEATHGRIP
rants promised a brutal fall/winter. By brutal, was he talking about breaking 3,000 sales again?
Yeah maybe Rants meant its gonna be a brutal Fall for the bears.
Who cares about the median price.
The government (BrackOsama) is printing money like crazy and jobs are still disappearing, all while bailing out housing deadbeats and big business criminals.
Stop all the government programs (welfare) for housing. Stop taking from the rich and giving to the poor (the lazy and worthless).
Communism and socialist principles will not work in the USA.
The bears and bulls should come together and agree that printing money (and killing the dollar) will just lower everyone’s standard of living, and bigger government and more spending and taxing will make things worse for EVERYONE, bull or bear!
sam,
Nobody cares about your partisan bitchin’ (Osama - how original!!)
If corporate bailouts are socialist, than Bush 43 should be called Karl Marx.
What housing deadbeats are being bailed out? Proof please.
Your hyperbole is boring me.
The sales number is pretty impressive given that we are well into the fall season.
Where is SC2? He probably burried his head in the sand.
Once again the OC shows there is no correlation between an unemployment rate greater then 10% and the ability to buy a house.
Anyone notice those people with signs begging for money in south county?
Imagine what demand will be when those jobs come back.
Oh are they coming back today or tomorrow? BTW how much is your health insurance premium going up?
You have to look at more than the number of jobs. It’s also the sectors that matter. Many high paying fields have not shed many jobs.
My premium hasn’t gone up yet. I’ll let you know in a couple weeks. Right now I pay nothing.
Imagine if you could become any more ignorant when they don’t.
Even the Obama administration says the job situation will get worse.
You must be having financial problems again because you’re posting comments based on unrealistic desperation.
Yes, Tom is having financial difficulties. Don’t rub it in his face.
You bought the bubble home and you think Tom has difficulties? Haha
Admit your stupidity and get on with life!!!
Yeah, I’ll be buying another bubble home real soon too. When are you buying Bill?
Will you be able to buy another with a foreclosure on your record?
Bill can’t afford to buy until he sees a 50% drop. So he is never going to buy.
Yes, I’ll be able to buy another foreclosure.
Bill, I didn’t know you were a lyrisist. You and that Lennon character, what a duo!
Bachelor’s degree and higher: Unemployment Rate: 4.7%
I would assume a potential buyer (at least in my neck of the woods) would require a college education to support a mortgage??????
Precisely.
Great piece of information!
Except that 70% of the people in OC don’t have a bachelors.
And I know first hand that there are plenty of high income individuals that are in serious trouble.
Next…………………
How many percentage of these people own the homes that you would want to live in? Why dont you write an article or do the research and post it here?
“Except that 70% of the people in OC don’t have a bachelors.”
Yes they are called renters.
Tom was that you holding the sign begging for money on the street corner?
No, I’m not the “RE Professional” like yourself which is just another way of saying “I’m unemployed.
Very astute comment. All RE professionals are unemployed. Can you carry that broad brush around or do you need help?
Q: What is the difference between you and a bucket of dog snot?
A: The Bucket.
What are you like 5 years old? Bill, you get baited all the time here. For such a cerebral dude, you comply with childish antics.
The only way children will learn is when you stoop to their level.
Lighten up mulli!
What’s got you all uptight? Another default maybe?
Plenty light William…no need to worry. You are just brighter than this…that is all.
Complements will get you everywhere mulli, except on a cheesy blog like this one.
So tell me the truth. You’re throwing out hints that a recovery has taken place.
Do you honestly believe your own hype?
What comments did I make that lead you to believe that I think a recovery is in place? All I believe is stability has been reached on the low end for now.
Mulligan, please don’t say Bill is cerebral. You’re scaring me.
you dimwits realize this is just BS propaganda. OCR is a biased and bankrupt paper soon to be history. buh bye!
3100 sales in the slow season. And the homebuyer credit is extended and modified for greater income brackets.
That is your democratic leadership at work…enjoy the change.
Monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.
You’re celebrating sales that can’t even reach 71% of normal levels even after a 33% drop.
620 fico’s are driving much of the sales, which means most will be in default fairly soon.
Do you see a celebration? Just stated the fact. There was no “wooo hooo” involved. You are so intolerant. Childish really. This little recession thingy we are going through, it plays a role in the sales number. I wonder what percentage to the decrease one would place on the R? Certainly your analytical noggin has an answer for this.
4.300 is not normal. There was a housing boom during most of that period.
crickets are telling…
And Fannie Mae will be renting REO’s instead of bringing them to market. The shadow inventory conspiracists have been vindicated!! Now where will new inventory come from?
Do you purposely dumb yourself down on this blog or are you for real?
All of the idiots out there bought homes to flip and become rich.
People don’t buy anything that has gone up 300% just because they want to live in it.
Now that their ewt dreams are over they won’t rent the overpriced home when they can scale down to something more reasonably within their means.
If you say so Bill. They have to pay market rents either way, so they may as well stay put, especially if their shoddy credit prevents them from getting an apartment. Also, the program includes existing tenants on investment properties.
For someone who doesn’t care about govt subsidies, you certainly are not sad about the latest handout to the financial sector.
Bill, Do you get a lot of hits on your bubble blog?
Do you get a lot of hits to the head?
I take that as a big no. lol
Don’t worry…Be Happy
New Landlords in Town: Freddie-Fannie. They will ask all those in distress to rent their homes.
Not to Mention Freddie-Fannie are broke. And asking government for 15B. And they just report 19B in loss.
So realtor here…Please Try not to fart so high. Thinking that the extention will help you.
Happy days are here again !!! Whatever you do don’t let go of that death grip, there is plenty of empty air beneath.
Bottom.
What, did you look in the mirror again?
I take back cerebral…and replace it with juvenile.
Too bad you can’t take back your foreclosure too!
I rest my case…you are just too omnipotent for all of us professor.
No “omnipotent” either. That’s equally as repulsive!
You guys aren’t looking at the big picture, check out all the government debt, inflation and rates will be going up. Thank you obama for hurting our country.
Inflation = Higher Prices
Nope.
Inflation = higher interest rates
higher intrest rates = less qualified buyers
less qualified buyers = price drops
It’ll be just like 2008.
The “recovery” will be jobless and incomes will actually decline.
“Nope.
Inflation = higher interest rates
higher intrest rates = less qualified buyers
less qualified buyers = price drops”
m always amused with this line of thought (i.e. high rates = price drops). Look at a CPI and MHP graph from the 70s & 80s and you will see thats not the case. Thanks to high inflation and double digit interest rates home prices “only” went up 6-7-8% a year.
In real terms, high inflation leads to lower prices. In nominal terms (i.e. the prices that you and I pay when we buy) home prices head up when interest rates rise due to inflation.
Real info is so refreshing…….
No not till later. First food and small goods will go up. House prices will rise but not for awhile. They will fall first(interest rates 10% ect) Yes they will eventually rise but that will take awhile. Look at the 70’s
You can always tell when a non realtor comes into this blog.
Mainly because they always make sense!
Is it SENSE that keeps someone from buying?
OR
Is it CENTS that keeps someone from buying?
It looks like both:
“Personal bankruptcies surge 9%”
“Total bankruptcies expected to top 1.4 million in 2009, highest in 4 years”
http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/04/news/economy/October_consumer_bankruptcy/index.htm
Now apply your global bankruptcy info to this area… what is the percentage of people who are bankrupt in irvine?
Considering that the Fed is not raising interest rates soon, I would think that deflation is still a concern even though we’re supposedly coming out of the recession.
Unlike the 70’s-80’s and now, you will see that America is far more extended debt wise today. Credit expansion is greatly at the discretion of foreign creditors. Who will be financing the mortgages that the government, the primary underwriter, issues?
Bulls still believe that the party will continue as it always does. Forget about globalization and jobless recoveries. Forget about the unsustainable debts that both citizens and the government have accumulated to create a shaky consumer based economy.
I think I”’ll buy a new Benz instead.
I only buy Mercedes, couldn’t be happier!! :)
Prices on average increased 15% in the last year, the dollar has dropped 20% in the same period. Looks like prices are still declining if youre an investor from Europe. If your an American with money to spend, try some gold or silver and forget the RE market.
GLD closed at $107.43 today.
Gold is still creeping up, but be wary. It’s moving into a commodities bubble. Buy now or forever be priced out! :P
ever notice how the realtards never ever post ANY REAL data to
support their claims? thats because they dont have any—
just the same ol myopic subjective opinions- they cant see two
days into the future much less two years- pathetic welfare leeches
if the housing market is so damn hot why the hell does the socialist
congress have to prolong the “homedebtor tax credit”- why does the
fed need to keep buying garbage mortgages to keep interest rates
artificially low- why does the FHA need billions more to stay out
of bankruptcy- the realtards never ever answer the real questions-
but then how could they- you actaully need a brain and some common sense to do that–
even more proof of the BOTTOM–more job losses and wage cuts in october- 50% of small business owners are worried about staying in
business-
http://jan.freedomblogging.com/2009/11/06/calif-small-businesses-cut-jobs-wages-in-october/24945/
Inflation = Higher Prices
DING!