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Calif. house prices projected to jump 7.9%
October 23rd, 2009, 2:00 am · 99 Comments · posted by Jeff Collins
U.S. house prices will stop falling in March and are projected to be up 4.6% by August 2010, Santa Ana-based data cruncher First American CoreLogic predicted.
| State | Aug. ‘10 gain |
|---|---|
| Maine | 12.1% |
| New Hampshire | 11.6% |
| California | 7.9% |
| Florida | 7.3% |
| New Jersey | 6.8% |
| Idaho | 5.8% |
| Connecticut | 5.7% |
| Rhode Island | 5.3% |
| Hawaii | 5.2% |
| North Dakota | 4.9% |
| U.S. | 4.6% |
In California, the rate of appreciation will be even higher: up 7.9% from this past August.
If true, California will have the nation’s third-highest appreciation rate, trailing Maine (projected to be up 12.1%) and New Hampshire (up 11.6%).
Florida’s appreciation rate is projected to be number four in the nation at 7.3% next August.
In addition, First American reported:
- U.S. house prices dropped 10.1% in August from a year earlier.
- California ranked fourth in price drops with a year-over-year decline of 12.9% in August.
- The biggest drops occurred in Nevada (-24.4%), Arizona (-19.5%) and Florida (-16.8%).
- Excluding the sale of bank-owned homes and short sales (homes selling for less than their debt), price drops were less severe. U.S. prices for non-distressed homes were down just 6.2%.
- In California non-distressed home prices were down 7.9% from August 2008.
Real estate trends:
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House prices in Orange County and California are inflated and fraudulents.
US government has no choice but to provide soft landings. The worst has yet to come until 2010: Housing is not a Buble until it bursts.
Here we go again! Another OCR wet dream being put into words!
This blog is about to get real smelly with all the brain farts coming from the realtards today….
LMAO
That’s funny…but true!
No quick fix.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/22/home-tax-credit-markets-equities-real-estate.html?partner=yahootix
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Thats funny…Cnn Money says another 20% down to go…
http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/20/real_estate/home_price_forecast/index.htm
I’m Sure, California housing will continue to drop until people can afford to buy them. Investors are just slowing down the correction. Between unemployment, lower wages and inflated prices, it will be years until housing prices level off in California. Hot spots are and will be the exception.
I would not say it is investor’s stopping the fall. 58% of loans made this summer were from FHA or VA loans. The Fed is what is propping up the market.
The investors paying .40 on the dollar directly from banks and flipping them at 20/30% return.
I think first timer buyers out number investors. It’s the existing home owners that refuse to buy because they can’t get rid of what they’ve already got.
Liar Loan says:
October 23, 2009 at 9 am
“It’s the existing home owners that refuse to buy because they can’t get rid of what they’ve already got.”
This also explains why inventory is low.
yah think? Wanna take a be the $8,000 credit gets extended or replaced by something similar? Nice that the FHA loans will use that credit as a downpayment, so we’re back to 0% down! Let the good times roll!
What if the economy continues to sink and these new buyers using FHA for mortgages start to default? They are paying as low as 3% down on still WAY OVERPRICED homes here in OC. Along with commercial real estate defaulting, I predict this will be the next shoe to fall. Once FHA is out, then who will have the money to lend?
My guess is someone paid for that report. There’s a sucker born every minute.
First American CL has there very own inside ‘economists’ who spin these visions. So . .. . in a way, yes, they paid for the report.
Did they have any employment projections, or is that not relevant?
Not relevant.
AAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHHHA HA HA HA HA HA ha ha ha ha ha ah ah aha ha ha ha ha aha ha ah aha ha aha hah aha aha a aaahaha ha aha aha aha ah ahaaha ha aha aha ana ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..ha!
“A Santa Ana based data cruncher”! ah haahaaa aha hhhaahahhhhhaaaaa aaaaah aah haa haa aahhha aah haaaa hha ahhhaa aaah aa haaa ah haahaaa aha hhhaahahhhhhaaaaa aaaaah aah haa haa aahhha aah haaaa hha ahhhaa aaah aa haaa ……………………………………………………….
Well, you’re reading a Santa Ana based newspaper.
I heard they may go back to their old name, remember when it was The Santa Ana Register ? That’s all it has become once again.
I don’t “remember” since I wasn’t alive back then, but I have seen the historical archives when Pearl Harbor got bombed, etc.
i have wondered that those predictors who are currently predict sale price goes up, received C and D grades as their best while they were in school or just learning by coppying it from someone else solutions. Probably yes…. :)
I wasn’t aware First American had hired Gary Watt’s :-).
I guess that means incomes will be up 7.9% next year. That’s great news!
Silly things like incomes and employment have NEVER mattered to Realtors & mortgage brokers.
Calif. house prices projected to jump 7.9% and the Cow jumped OVER the moon…and Santa Claus is coming to town.
Nothing like a great laugh out loud to start the weekend off!! Too funny hahhahahahhaha
I CALL B^LL SH!T! Every time we hear this it comes from a study done by a group that is or directly connected to the realestate industry.Two members of my family (both predicted the bubble burst long before it actually happend) are saying “don’t ever believe projections like this” .because all it is is an attempt to paint a “rosey ” picture in realestate with the hopes of getting some to part with money there realestate industry thinks people are just “sitting on “.The banks are not offering loans and job security is still in the toilet .Those are far ,far better indicators on whats happenig than a b.s. spin report by those that count on an increase in home sales .DON’T BELIEVE THE SPIN!
The banks aren’t offering loans??? What planet do you live on? Banks don’t (and shouldn’t) offer loans to LOSERS with no credit, high debt, no money, no job. This is what got us in to trouble……..DUH!!
Are you one of those people? Don’t make blanket statements that cover the entire population. If you are a responsible individual with a JOB, solid credit and some money, the loans are out there. What is so hard to understand about that?
Of course the study was done from a real estate connected organization, otherwise it wouldn’t have any credibility. Would you prefer the study to be done by a group of ditch diggers or bartenders? Kudos to your family members for predicting something well in advance, how does that make them an expert?
“Of course the study was done from a real estate connected organization, otherwise it wouldn’t have any credibility. Would you prefer the study to be done by a group of ditch diggers or bartenders?”
Most intelligent people would prefer the study be done by someone withOUT a conflict of interest. You try to make it sound like there are only 2 choices: (1) a conflict of interest party or (2) ditch diggers & bartenders. BIG logical fallacy there.
Wasn’t this same organization calling housing overpriced a couple of years ago?
Yes - and they did quite well calling the downturn. Curiously, everyone here liked their forecasts. Now they are flawed, biased, paid for, etc.
You got that right.
It amazes me how many “experts” reply to these reports. You are allowed your opinion, but be able to back it up rather than just say “housing won’t recover for the next 5 years”…blah, blah, blah. BACK IT UP!!
Most, if not all, of the doubters who post don’t own a home, can’t own a home, and will never own a home. You are renters with no ability to ever own, so you hate on those of us who can make the investment. If you don’t like where our housing and ecomomy are heading, move to Mexico and join the thriving economy there.
“If you don’t like where our housing and ecomomy are heading, move to Mexico and join the thriving economy there.”
No thanks. I’ll just wait here until the market corrects. I will not be purchasing your overpriced home.
We sold in ‘05, are leasing now, and will buy with cash in a couple more years. The bottom will not come for years.
I may not be an expert, but I did call the bottom close enough, and walked the walk.
We have owned, can own any time we want, and will own again.
You, on the other hand, do not know any of what you write and are full of hot air.
Get ready for the pseudo intellectual RE crowd bears to jump all over this one.
OC register posts these insane titles just to get people to comment on them. All they have to do is find one crack-pot out there to say some insane garbage and they have their story.
Every one of these stories is BS.
The economy is in the toilet and people continue to lose jobs. If people can not afford to pay their bills, they aren’t buying houses. Nothing is going to get better until at least 2012.
Yes. Median may jump. Infact it has. As the high-end continues to collapse, you will see the median rise.
Price per sq ft has been and will continue its downward trend.
Take a close look at the sweet data the guys have crunched recently.
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/prices-home-percent-2606207-month-year
PPSF has been trending up since March.
http://www.redfin.com/county/332/CA/Orange-County
Actually, there was a jump for three months, and the last three months have been flat, and for past month, slightly down, and YOY still negative.
So then you disagree with his statement that PPSF has been trending down, eh?
“trending” is meaningless without the context of time. I could say house prices have been trending up for the past 100 yrs… or trending down for the past 2 days…
I was just commenting on the data in the link you provided
YOY: -
9 mo: flat
6 mo: + (due to a increase for two or three months)
3 mo: flat
1 mo: -
Well I said since March. If you flattened the line from March 31st to today it would be an uptrend.
So you agree that the trend is flat or down depending on the time frame.
Sure. The PPSF has dropped by $1 in the past 2 weeks.
There you go - trending down for 3 months, 1 month, 2 weeks and 1 day.
Nice upward trend.
nice chart liar loan. those redfin charts are great. It looks pretty flat in general. Maybe we see a turn around next spring? Or maybe we go Japan mode.
I went to a palm reader the other day and she told me I will win the lottery in 2010.
I gave her a nice tip.
Time to party!
I predict that Real Estate agents will have the same ethical enforcement as laywers. 0
You are painting with far too broad a brush. Real estate agents and even lawyers are people, subject to the same moral foibles as everyone else. As for lawyers, we have serious enforcement mechanisms for ethical violations.
I predict that underwater home debtors will continue to be jealous of and criticize at renters who were smarter than they were and didn’t buy into the bubble since they have no other outlet for their aggression.
YOU called it.
Only 7.9%? No way. I predict prices will be up 1,000,000% by the end of the year.
is this 7.9% adjusted for the massive inflation that is set in place? IF not, then 7.9% will actually be a loss.
You are better off buying foreign currencies, gold, oil futures, and Chinese stocks. Housing will be a bust for a long, long time.
A Santa Ana based number cruncher….bwahahaha.
I would be more likely to believe the guy selling oranges at the freeway offramp.
I have never ever seen such blatent manipulation trying to paint a rosey picture regarding real estate, the stock market, the job market, the entire economy. We are probably in the most precarious economic situation since the Great Depression. Hope, praying and make believe fantasy outcomes won’t help one bit.
Would your opinion change if they weren’t located in Santa Ana?
YAWN , register is going down like a clown with a frown
Going down like tracker on a car date.
***Oscar Nomineee****
Comment of the year!!!!!!!!!!!
2 factors in play here. 1. Scarce REOs getting bid up over asking 2. Median rising due to mid/high end collapsing.
Wait til the banks start dumping more of their shadow inventory
Bogus report I think to get suckers to buy these overpriced homes. Home prices will continue to drop with unemployment as high as it is in California.
OC Register reporting has been pretty bad lately.
No Comments.
Just another aberration from desperation.
The only way the housing market would increase is if the banks took more of their foreclosure homes off the market. Right now the banks could change their name to Motel 6 and no one would know the difference. I wish banks would deal with home buyers directly instead of Real Estate companies, first time buyers can get a better price.
I’ve come to the conclusion that if you do the opposite of whatever the Register says you will prosper. I’d be more likely to believe the Register is being purchased by a consortium of illegal aliens, than many of the phony stats and predictions I’ve read here lately.
The good police are out in full force today with the name calling and personal attacks. Seems like we are seeing ALOT of these types of reports lately. I’m sure they are all wrong and the few jealous haters blogging from their mom’s garage are right.
whatever……………..
where is the Village Idiot….? Where is my boy Gunner?
Wow, the haters are AGITATED today. HAHAHAHAHA.
Rail on haters. It won’t make any difference whatsoever.
Exactly - why are you hear and not doing useless document review freshie?
It would be nice if these predictions listed the set of assumptions underlying them. There’s really nothing for the readers to debate in this post by Jeff.
California home prices will continue to drop until the local citizens can afford them. After considering the unemployment level, decreases in salaries, and overall need for everyone to be realistic about what they are purchasing, the prices have to drop further.
I realize that reality is difficult for some to grasp, but it needs to be done. I personally do not want to continue to further finance people’s sense of entitlement by purchasing what they cannot afford.
Sometimes this stuff is just not worth the energy to comment on!
Every house in my community up for sale recently has sold, with mutiple offers. I guess it depends on the area. Some areas do not seem to be recovering yet.
I am sorry that you live in the worst part of Santa Ana…
With the dollar values going down the toilet, it is possible that housing prices in California might be heading up due to foreign investors. If a US$ 500K SFH in SC is worth only about EUR$ 330K; who knows, some might think that’s a deal that they can invest in.
Prices will come down when we have to mop up all the excess liquidity by raising Fed funds rate. Incomes are not going to rise, commodity prices will rise however due to the falling dollar, thus your actual buying power will be less. We still haven’t seen the full effect of falling rents and continued unemployment on the investor rental markets, once those buyers capitulate and another scam market takes its place (commodities?) we won’t have the second leg down. My guess late 2010 to late 2011. Once investors realize that they aren’t cash flowing and not getting appreciation, they’ll flee like the rats that they are.
This has been obvious for quite some time to normal, non-hater losers.
Sorry, obvious EXCEPT to hater losers.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Freshly-closed:
27701 Chapala, Mission Viejo
4/3.5/3,693 sf
$2,200,000
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Freshly-closed:
16347 Shadbush St, Fountain Valley
4/2.5/1,988 sf
$625,000
The more things change the more they stay the same.
1929=2008.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Freshly-closed:
2 Galena, Irvine
3/2.5/1,924 sf
$740,000
Ahhh, once again I must expose the truth behind Trackers postings:
2 Galena, Irvine listing history:
6/29/09 Opening listing at 849,900
8/25/09 Price Drop to 795,000
9/15/09 Price drop to 749,000
9/24/06 Property on Hold pending escrow close:
Trcker your new motto should be:
I should do my homework before I post property closings
There are three things will stop this from happening.
1) Unemployment is still expected to rise
2) Delinquencies are on an upward trend - http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/freddie-mac-delinquency-rate-rises-to.html
3) Builders need to make money and are going to start building again. Example, Irvine Company will start selling new homes in Woodbury in 2010.
Where do these boneheads come from with this utterly ridiculous projection of 7.9% jump? HELLO.
Stock market doesn’t go up forever nor does interest stay this low forever. If the economy does ever recover, we’ll be paying $4 gasoline along with other sky high food and energy prices. There won’t be any money left to make mortgage payments!
If there are any buyers, it will be from the foreigners!!
FA Core-logic is “PROJECTING”
nuff said . .. LMAO
More importantly . … .
First American reported:
•California ranked fourth in price drops with a year-over-year decline of 12.9% in August.
Meantime, loads of ‘WISHFUL PRICING’ FAIL …all over Irvine. ….
13 East DEERWOOD
Oct 06, 2009 Price Changed $599,900 — CARETS #P701234
Sep 09, 2009 Price Changed $624,900 — CARETS #P701234
Aug 29, 2009 Listed $649,900 – CARETS #P701234
25 BIRDSONG
Sep 26, 2009 Price Changed $699,500 — CARETS #S582256
Aug 21, 2009 Price Changed $717,500 — CARETS #S582256
Jul 17, 2009 Listed $735,000 – CARETS #S582256
10 Pebblepath
Oct 08, 2009 Price Changed $409,118 — CARETS #S589372
Sep 15, 2009 Listed $430,650 — CARETS #S589372
Jul 23, 2009 Sold $422,100 Public Records
The more pricing stabilizes.. the more it doesn’t
Lol
And once again, copying and pasting closed listings is not that meaningful since there is no way to know what renovations or repairs were made - in many cases, these numbers are substantial.
Denial runs deep.
Once again - your response means nothing, and your postings are meaningless. But what else would we expect from tracker…
And once again, tracker responds despite proclaiming she never would.
Tracker,
Stop the lie, and please try
to look around, and don’t cry
When your comission’s cut
cause lies are easy with nothing but
Words of desperation to begin
a lot people know your spin
I see you trying very fre*^king hard
but people see your blufing with no card
So word of advise for you
it’s about the time to change the screename fool!
I love all you PUNDANTS you have no clue how to make money in Real Estate!! Firstly you NEVER sell!!!! I could give a flying F if the market drops another 50% why because I don’t SELL!! I buy property (like right now) that I can cash flow!! That’s it!! CASH FLOW people! The reason I love you pundants is that without you I would not survive!! Yes that’s right, you have a MORTGAGE and you’re in the REAL ESTATE MARKET but it’s my MORTGAGE that you are paying down not YOURS!! Thank you for not believing!!! The game is simple! buy property, pay down the mortgage to zero and sit back and count the cash!! So keep RENTING pundants you are my friends and I love you!!!!
You pay down your mortgage with the 2/3’s you get from me. I stick that 1/3 in a mutual and get a healthy return. I call you when something major goes wrong and you come and fix it. I win!
I should switch my name to “I love Landlords”