- NEWS
- Nearly an inch of rain hits O.C. 9 seconds ago
- Report: Gay O.C. soldier returns to duty
- Tustin hospital exec pleads guilty to fraud 2 hours & 16 minutes ago
- More than 40 DUI arrests made Super Bowl Sunday 2 hours & 15 minutes ago
- SPORTS
- O.C. teams atop CIF basketball rankings 57 minutes ago
- U.S. skier Kearney loves life up in the air 1 hour & 49 minutes ago
- Fans must know rules before donning jersey 2 minutes ago
- Baseball's look-alikes 3 hours & 54 minutes ago
- BUSINESS
- ENTERTAINMENT
- Patty Griffin headed to the Wiltern 1 hour & 6 minutes ago
- Orange Pop: Busy days for the Dear & Departed 39 minutes ago
- AfterWork: Hooters in Lake Forest
- Will H.B. woman be the next 'Bachelorette'?
- LIFE
- TRAVEL
- OPINION
Recovery more rapid than expected, UCI prof says
October 20th, 2009, 2:04 am · 155 Comments · posted by Jeff Collins
Vandell
Another economist has said that he thinks the economy is bottoming out.
“Institutions are coming back. Things are starting to flow again,” Kerry Vandell, head of UC Irvine’s Center for Real Estate, told an industry group Monday. “The economy is recovering more rapidly than I would have guessed.”
The gross domestic product will be positive again either by winter or spring, he said.
When will the residential market begin to recover?
“In my opinion, it already has,” Vandell told local members of Lambda Alpha International, a society devoted to land economics.
But lest you think that happy days are here again, note that Vandell’s outlook comes with a lot of gloomy caveats. Among the hairy obstacles still in recovery’s path:
- A massive wave of foreclosures is yet to come.
- Banks are delaying “taking the hit” on those devalued properties.
- Credit still very tight.
- Unemployment is still increasing.
- State spending cuts will offset federal stimulus in California.
- Prices and rents are still high.
Vandell told Lambda Alpha members that there are a number of myths about the cause of the economic meltdown.
The usual suspects – subprime loans, credit rating agencies, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, the housing market and real estate — were not the main culprits, he said . The subprime meltdown and bursting housing bubble were just the first canaries in the coal mine, just the first symptoms of an economic catastrophe.
The primary villains, he said, included the Federal Reserve under Chairman Alan Greenspan (for keeping interest rates too low), the Securities and Exchange Commission (for being asleep at the switch), and past U.S. presidents, in particular Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, (for their pro-homeownership policy bias).
What are the prospects for O.C. real estate?
“It depends on the market,” he said. “There’s an active market under $400,000-$450,000. … (But) in terms of the upper end, (activity) is pretty thin up there.”
Reader Comments
Comments are encouraged, but you must follow our User Agreement.- Keep it civil and stay on topic.
- No profanity, vulgarity, racial slurs or personal attacks.
- People who harass others or joke about tragedies will be blocked.
155 Comments
-
ADVERTISEMENT
-
-
OC real estate news- Mortgage bankers HQ now a short sale?
- Homes have similar views, $1.8 million difference
- A 'short refi' to avoid foreclosure?
- Million-dollar home sales down 15% in ‘09
- Yorba Linda home tops most-viewed list
- Would you relocate to Texas?
- $16.5M apartments sale sets record
- Housing market warming along south coast?
- Which Surf City ZIP had biggest sales gain?
- Does sales jump confirm housing bottom?
-
Want real estate updates by e-mail?
Just CLICK HERE!
-
Blog within a blog ...
-
ADVERTISEMENT
Of course RE has recovered. It stared back in Jan 09 and is well on it’s way to $600K median in 2012. Economists are typically right, but they are typically wrong on the timing. If he said this stuff in Jan09, like I did, then his timing would have been right.
You have the only perfect track record here, Gunner!
Ya, now that you no longer need a job to buy a house there will be no stopping housing prices. That is as long as you don’t need a job or health insurance.
Apparently, home prices can reach new records during periods of high unemployment. It’s happening in the UK.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601206&sid=aTAk2M_ZrU2g
Economists are typically right???
A vast majority of economists didn’t even seen this recession coming. Which economist are you talking to, Willis? The Real Estate’s industry economist? NAR economist or CAR economist? They get paid to forecast positive outlooks, or they lose their job. It’s in their best interest.
A dope and his money will soon be departed. I have cash on hand and will scoop up 20 cents on the dollar. Patience paid off for me in the last housing recession. Time is on my side. I can wait however long it takes.
naw you are too old and too set in your ways to see what is in front of your eyes.
Too old? I am in my 30s.
Shockg is forced to believe that all renters are in their 50s-60s in order to justify being underwater.
And how many 50-60 yr olds do you know on blogs? Answer: 0. If shockg knows of such people, it demonstrates his old age and that he is just a bitter ole geezer waiting to collect social security.
“The primary villains, he said, included the Federal Reserve under Chairman Alan Greenspan (for keeping interest rates too low), the Securities and Exchange Commission (for being asleep at the switch), and past U.S. presidents, in particular Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, (for their pro-homeownership policy bias).”
This has been clear for some time - see http://www.beyondthemargin.net/2008/06/dirt-on-housing.html What is disturbing is that the same thing is happening all over again.
We have lower interest rates than under Greenspan causing all kinds of liquidity induced speculation, government interference in the mortgage and housing market (the Fed buying mortgages to suppress rates + federal and state tax credits + FHA and other government entities providing 3% down mortgages), and an administration that thinks they can engineer the economy through government planning.
We are repeating the same mistakes over and over again.
http://www.beyondthemargin.net/search/label/Economics%20and%20Finance
tic, tic, tic,
Homedebtors, I hope you’ve ‘prepared’
Glad you’re sticking around till the bitter end (which really already happened). Some of your comrades have pretty much bailed, but you deserve credit for sticking to your (empty) guns.Please keep up the “here it comes……look out…..it’s coming……just a little longer….” If you can hang in for another 10 years of so, you’ll look like a genius!! HAHAHAHAHAHA
You tell’em Voice with all these new jobs here people are buying 2 houses next to each other.
The retiring boomers are anyway. LOL….
May of those lost jobs were for part time and/or low paying jobs. Retail, food service, unskilled labor, etc. Those people were not going to buy homes in OC. It’s not 1973. And this isn’t Kansas. Most people who own here either worked their way up through fixers or have a very good income.
Yo voice, were all those jobs lost at the mortgage companies in Irvine low wage jobs? Do you really think anyone is going to believe your nonsense?
You mean construction and finance right?
VOR!
Who are you to come in here and point the fingers at the Bears who’ve been right for 3 years. You jackazzes talk like you’ve been right all along, yet NOTHING COULD BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH!!!!!!
Most of the bears never expected that the govt would backstop the insolvent banks to this extent, and have their hands in more than 80% of the financing of real estate. And yet, you azzhooles stand high and act like you knew all along. LoL NOTHING COULD BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH!!!!!!
The only thing that’s happened is the govt has kicked the can down the road for a few months. Most of us know that Americas debt problems are nowhere near being over.
if you were so right prices would still be tanking. You mean you have proven to be so wrong over the last 3 years. lol
Yes, and it only took trillions of tax dollars borrowed to support RE prices. Here’s the problem, how can the fed raise rates and not crash RE or make the banks suffer the losses? They can’t. Say goodbye to the dollar.
And to think many here have been throwing rent $ away for the last 5-7 years in anticipation of the crash of the higher end. keep waiting fools.
Yet you still haven’t learned that lesson.
Lee,
Why do we waste time responding to these hopeful cheerleaders of a bygone era?
Higher medians mean nothing.
Appraisals today are reflecting the real world. That’s why the cash buyer prevails and the rest of the market sits.
The cheerleader t rolls don’t know this and unless and until they become aware of what’s really going on in the market they will continue to blow and jump for joy at anything that gives them the false hope they live for.
Appraisals are coming in at less than 50% of the peak. Fact.
I’d rather be right for 3 yrs and wrong for 6 months, than wrong for 3 yrs and right for 6 months…
But, rent for most people the past few yrs pales in comparison to housing declines, HOAs, upkeep, repairs, insurance, property tax, etc. Renters are definitely ahead.
“May of those lost jobs were for part time and/or low paying jobs. Retail, food service, unskilled labor, etc.”
VOR, you’re a moron!! I know a lot people who have lost their jobs that were earning a good living: Engineering, Accounting, IT related jobs…
Today’s news, Sun Microsystems plans to eliminate up to 3,000 jobs, you think those are unskilled labor?
Speaking of job issues, law firms are reducing their payscales… right VOR? Nothing like a quick 15k haircut when most people need it most to pay off those six figure loans…
Typical out of touch college professor.
Takes these introverted, ego driven scholars and put them into the real world and they collapse like a house of cards.
How about these real-world facts.
1. The hundreds of thousands of ARM’s that are about to go up in the next six months.
2. The fact that a majority of the first modified loans from 2008 are already starting to go into default.
3. Massive exodus of companies out of California, because they can’t meet the BS environmental strangulation regulations that are going to start going into effect.
4. The massive tax losses from property value decreases that are going to start coming through like tsunami waves in the next two years, nation wide.
5. OBAMA CARE: Need I say more!!!
6. Massive National Debt the rest of the world is starting to burden.
7. Secret meetings with China, Russia, Japan, France, Germany and the Middle East regarding basing there monetary value of money on a gold standard and not the US Dollar.
http://www.dailyamerican.com/articles/2009/10/13/opinion/letters_to_editor/letter267.txt
8. Job losses… We have not even seen the bottom of the barrel yet. Saturn = 10,500 jobs. Hummer = (already some 6,300 jobs) Don’t think the Chinese are not going take the remaining jobs, 700 on the H3 production line over to China sooner then the agreed upon 2011 time frame.
9. The never ending national debt…
And the hits just keep rolling in………………………..
I couldn’t agreed more
And this economist from UCI. I read few lines to find out he is full of it.
I guess he figured if he hums a few bars we’ll all buy in. maybe even spend a little bit more at the local retailers come Christmas.
Well if the BRIC countries stop using the dollar, we can always convert to the Amero.
Hmmm…..this building was written off not so long ago.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Freshly-closed:
8120 Scholarship
3/3.5/2,667 sf CONDO
$1,800,000
In Irvine
Do you have the Redfin link? There the only good RE site.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Freshly-closed:
1850 Pitcairn Dr, Costa Mesa
4/2.5/2,262 sf
$890,000
Freshly not closed.. multiple price drops, 76 days on the market,
Lol
This story is prevalent all over OC, all you have to do is look
138 Roadrunner
Oct 17, 2009 Relisted – – SoCalMLS #S584609
Sep 15, 2009 Price Changed $595,000 – SoCalMLS #S584609
Aug 23, 2009 Price Changed $629,000 – SoCalMLS #S584609
Aug 05, 2009 Listed $669,000 – SoCalMLS #S584609
Cheers!
off-Tracker,
That place on Pitcairn: Gotta assume 6% commission, $53,400 so they net 836K — they paid 878K two years ago.
You cheer this disaster - why?
Good thing they didn’t rent two years ago, huh?
Seems like the buyers this time are making a bigger mistake when you realize zillow is coming in high on everything.
ZESTIMATE®: $800,000
* Value Range: $640,000 - $824,000
* 30-day change: -$39,000
* Zestimate updated: 10/19/2009
Last sale and tax info
Sold 10/05/2007:
$878,000
2009 Property Tax:
$9,537
b/c tracker doesn’t even know what year it is and doesn’t care about losses.
Now that tracker has agreed that it is wise to look at prior sales, even back to 2001, she can no longer criticize people who point out how much sellers lost compared to a prior sale. And when shockg makes the same criticism, shockg is also criticizing tracker.
Oh, but tracker will say that commission has nothing to do with price, except when people have a certain price in mind and naturally set their list or target price 6-10% higher to account for commission. But don’t worry, tracker will quickly dismiss that huge cost despite the fact that 6% is substantial and decreases net profit - something tracker doesn’t understand or can’t admit. It all comes down to profit and costs….
PDU: Your analysis overlooks a major component that makes this an even worse example by Tracker–the incredibile upgrades that were done by the owner over the +/- 2 years that they owned the property. In looking at the MLS description and photo from the earlier sale, the property looks nice, but plain. Photos from the most recent sale show a highly appointed home. I can’t include the photos, but the verbiage (which appears to basically reflect the recent upgrading, including an added pool):
From the moment you see the custom Dutch door with hidden screen you are hooked. Extraordinary in every aspect. One story that is so open and tranquil come explore. Over $250,000 spent in creating this showplace. ALL flooring is tiger bamboo - set on the diagonal for dramatic impact. Rare imported granite counters in completely new kitchen. Everything opens onto great room w/ fireplace, 1/2 bath, dining room and extra living area now being used as an entertainment area (yep, there s a fireplace there too). Custom built-ins by master craftsman. The master is a true retreat with oversized shower, tub, double sink & vaulted ceilings. The home is focused around the rear yard which is truly one of the most beautiful we have ever seen. Designed by an award winning team there is over $30,000 spent in exotic planting. The pool, spa, built in BBQ and gazebo make it a perfect place to relax. Great side grass area, eco friendly rain collectors, superb drainage and real stone…Perfection.
Good one OC Native,
These upgrades are something we almost never hear of and yet were near universal during the price climb. The neighbors were all remodeling and granite kitchening. We need to keep up with the neighbors…..hey, free money from the refi — it adds value to the house, right?
You are absolutely right, add the upgrades to the cost and the “profit” isn’t nearly what it appears. The cost of the upgrades are escalated when the cost of finanacing them is added to the equation.
Nothing is as simple as it first appears and the losses are greater than it seems.
Your post should be a topic of discussion by our b logger, — fat chance that we’ll see that:)
From CNNFN today:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — If you thought home prices were bottoming out, you may be wrong. They’re expected to head a lot lower.
Home values are predicted to drop in 342 out of 381 markets during the next year, according to a new forecast of real estate prices.
Home values in the nation’s second largest city, Los Angeles, have fallen 43.3% since June 2006 to a median of $313,000. They are expected to dive another 20.2% over by June 2010, and then start to climb in 2011.
These are wonderful news.
And I believe it will climb 2011 due to inflation?
Forecasts are a dime a dozen. From the same story:
“Prices had stabilized
The latest forecast is at odds with the past few months of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index. That report has given hope that most housing markets may have already stabilized because the composite index of 20 cities rose in May, June and July. Nationally, it found that home prices have gained 3.6%.”
Yes but not here in California.
here we have long way to go
As are your comments and postings…
87 days on the market.
Question: Where’s the price stabilization?
Answer: There is none
8 Oakgrove
Sep 23, 2009 Price Changed $669,900 – SoCalMLS #S583231
Sep 03, 2009 Price Changed $679,000 – SoCalMLS #S583231
Aug 22, 2009 Price Changed $687,500 – SoCalMLS #S583231
The more prices stabilize the more they don’t
Lol
Jul 25, 2009 Listed $699,900 – SoCalMLS #S583231
There are hundreds of these examples of ’stabilization’ all over OC
it’s stable in the sense that it has been on the market for awhile at that price and noone wants it!!! LOL!!!!
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Freshly-closed:
3 Morning Glory, Irvine
3/2.5/2,022
$940,000
The neighborhoods in OC that come out of this with a max 10-15% decrease will have yet another bragging right! Schools, People, Neighborhood, Resiliency to the downturn. So it’s really…
“The more things change, the more they change!”
You got that right. That will trump University High.
Tracker,
I was not sure the point you were trying to make on posting the sales so I went ahead and dug a little deeper on the Morning Glory Example:
When you look at the listing history it pretty much self explanatory. The property I will admit is a prime piece of hillside, (overlooking Shady Canyon) in a strong tract, but even its location and the comps. for the area show a steady decline in property values of around 15% over the last couple of years.
Listing History:
6/04/06 - 1,299,000
6/24/06 - Dropped to 1,280,000
8/31/06 - Listing expires new agent, re-listed at 1,290,000
10/12/06 - Dropped to 1,265,000
10/23/06 - Dropped to 1,150,000
12/04/06 - increased to 1,199,00
3/17/08 - new agent - dropped to 1,129,000
6/19/08 - off market
8/11/09 - back on market 989,000
10/19/09 closed at 949,000
exactly - no pricing power, and continued losses
tracker just proved bogey’s point again…
So, it’s 15% off a wishing price from a few years back?
Sorry, meant 30% from a wishing price and 15% off reality.
that’s your only response- “wishing price” - well, doesn’t change the fact that the asking and sales prices declined significantly from before, and this is yet another seller who lost a lot of money. good job seller - way to lose that cash…. your children will love you for it.
sideTracker,
“Wishing price”?
I love it. Is that the new “realtorspeak”?
Does this mean you are starting to get it?
discounts from “wishing price” and discounts from “reality” LOL!!! Classic.
SC2, How do you know the seller lost money?
And yes, if these morons sold when they should have sold - they would have made a lot of money.
Again, 2009, as you say - or did little piggie forget that.
Lost money? That’s a hoot! Last sale was $511,500 in 2001. They almost doubled their money.
‘well, doesn’t change the fact that the asking and sales prices declined significantly from before, and this is yet another seller who lost a lot of money”
What a tool SC2 is!
Too bad tracker didn’t buy in 2001. instead, tracker bought in 2006 like shockg. oh well, losers are losers
What a dufus tracker is - yes, i just hate losing 30% by selling 2-3 yrs later. Oh well. people like tracker don’t care, which is why they are poor and live in a santa ana condo, trying desperately to stop drowning.
So tracker, please enlighten us as to the new NAR/CAR wishing and reality standards. What a fool.
This is 2009 tracker - why are you looking back to 2001?
This is a good point, most “homeowners” pre 2002 are still up 100-200% depending on the area.
Maybe, maybe not. We’ve seen loads of places at the beach at 2003-2004 prices. I don’t think that prices increased 200% from 2001-2003…
And again, those prices don’t factor in any add’l money that the owners put into it. e.g., just b/c someone bought in 2001 for 600k, put 150k into it, and sold for 850k does not mean they made 250k profit. Rather, after the 150k and commission, they have a small gain. All of the closed listings should be considered with that caveat since there is no way to know whether or not there was add’l money sunk into it, and if so, how much…
Tracker,
They’d have to make $511,500 to double their money.
IF, and that’s a BIG if, they made no concessions to sell, they made $428, 500 minus commission, or $371,600 if they had no costs, maintenance or upkeep.
So, I’m nitpicking, but you’re booshiiting.
The problem with the simplistic view of price alone, and with tracker’s postings, is that it obviously ignores basic costs, renovations, repairs, etc. Thus, all of tracker’s postings are considered with a huge asterrisk since tracker cannot know, and does not know, whether the seller made repairs or renovated, and if so, how much was spent since this obviously reduces the profit.
I pity the sheeple (homedebtors) and their hopeium dreams of the good old days.
Trillions of $’s borrowed and spent yet the ponzi finance deflationary debt deleveraging downward spiral continues . . . .
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1523-PPI-Freezing-Below-Zero-Deflation-Alert.html
This is the first economist that I’ve seen who gets that subprime was not the cause, but the canary for a wider financial crisis. The money printing authorities kept money cheap for far too long, not incorporating housing inflation into their metrics even though it was inflating 15-20% a year. There are still too many financial commentators that don’t get this.
Actually, the greater financial crisis is based on the shaky foundation of the U.S. economy. The flight of capital from the U.S. has only been mitigated by the influx of foreign credit. As our means of industrial production, and therefore real wealth, has dwindled, our economy has increasingly become asset driven. Unfortunately, such system is highly prone to overspeculation and instability.
As far as Blame for the Economic and Real Estate Meltdown, no one walks away free. All of the above listed were a part of the problem and certainly the Federal Government for it’s loose policies on home ownership is a big culprit. In addition and an important element is
Basic human greed, which was left out of the equation. In reality, everyone wanted to jump on the band wagon, buy a house to have appreciation and a cash cow. People couldn’t wait to buy one house, re-finance after a year, buy anohter (or a Hummer, pay for college, take a vacation etc) . All of these other elements facilitated this looseness and certainly borrowers making $20,000 per year knew that they couln’t affort the payments, but thought everything would be alright because of appreciation.
The media also drove this upward movement by daily reporting appreication statistics. Almost everyone and anyone was afraid to be left behind.
It’s hard to think, even with low inventory, that we are now on the path to recovery. In the real estate industry, we’re being told to prepare for two million foreclosures for the next two and even three years.
The job market also is not getting stronger, even the institutions are recovering.
As far as the existing market–it’s good below $750,000.
It’s a seller’s market. Foreclosures increased in the above $750,000 from 6.5% of the sales last year to 11.4% this year. I think the market is going to continue to feel the effects from unemployment, less work for many of our business owners, and people being upside down in their houses. As far as Blame for the Economic and Real Estate Meltdown, no one walks away free. All of the above listed were a part of the problem and certainly the Federal Government for it’s loose policies on home ownership is a big culprit. In addition and an important element is
Basic human greed, which was left out of the equation. In reality, everyone wanted to jump on the band wagon, buy a house to have appreciation and a cash cow. People couldn’t wait to buy one house, re-finance after a year, buy anohter (or a Hummer, pay for college, take a vacation etc) . All of these other elements facilitated this looseness and certainly borrowers making $20,000 per year knew that they couln’t affort the payments, but thought everything would be alright because of appreciation.
The media also drove this upward movement by daily reporting appreication statistics. Almost everyone and anyone was afraid to be left behind.
It’s hard to think, even with low inventory, that we are now on the path to recovery. In the real estate industry, we’re being told to prepare for two million foreclosures for the next two and even three years.
The job market also is not getting stronger, even the institutions are recovering.
As far as the existing market–it’s good below $750,000.
It’s a seller’s market. Foreclosures increased in the above $750,000 from 6.5% of the sales last year to 11.4% this year. I think the market is going to continue to feel the effects from unemployment, less work for many of our business owners, and people being upside down in their houses. As far as Blame for the Economic and Real Estate Meltdown, no one walks away free. All of the above listed were a part of the problem and certainly the Federal Government for it’s loose policies on home ownership is a big culprit. In addition and an important element is
Basic human greed, which was left out of the equation. In reality, everyone wanted to jump on the band wagon, buy a house to have appreciation and a cash cow. People couldn’t wait to buy one house, re-finance after a year, buy anohter (or a Hummer, pay for college, take a vacation etc) . All of these other elements facilitated this looseness and certainly borrowers making $20,000 per year knew that they couln’t affort the payments, but thought everything would be alright because of appreciation.
The media also drove this upward movement by daily reporting appreication statistics. Almost everyone and anyone was afraid to be left behind.
It’s hard to think, even with low inventory, that we are now on the path to recovery. In the real estate industry, we’re being told to prepare for two million foreclosures for the next two and even three years.
The job market also is not getting stronger, even the institutions are recovering.
As far as the existing market–it’s good below $750,000.
It’s a seller’s market. Foreclosures increased in the above $750,000 from 6.5% of the sales last year to 11.4% this year. I think the market is going to continue to feel the effects from unemployment, less work for many of our business owners, and people being upside down in their houses.
Are you blaming the media..? when you guys were the ones telling the world. Buy now before being price-out?
Remember the movie “Casablanca”
play it again Sam
No, Just saying everyone was to blame.
15 Lakefront
Sep 09, 2009 Price Changed $1,199,000 — SoCalMLS #S583308
Jul 26, 2009 Listed $1,250,000 — SoCalMLS #S583308
The more prices stabilize the more they don’t
From the WSJ
IRS is investigating suspicious claims for first time buyers Tax-Credits
about 100,000 cases.
Things do indeed stay the same - all tracker can do is copy and paste closings, all of which do not involve her, like a 5 yr old… Good job.
______________________________________________________
When will the residential market begin to recover?
“In my opinion, it already has,” Vandell told local members of Lambda Alpha International, a society devoted to land economics.
But lest you think that happy days are here again, note that Vandell’s outlook comes with a lot of gloomy caveats. Among the hairy obstacles still in recovery’s path:
- A massive wave of foreclosures is yet to come.
- Banks are delaying “taking the hit” on those devalued properties.
- Credit still very tight.
- Unemployment is still increasing.
- State spending cuts will offset federal stimulus in California.
- Prices and rents are still high.
_____________________________________________________
Huh? For a positive observation on residential market, he had to make 6 disclaimers. Kinda like me saying that I can win the next lotto pot; and the only thing standing in my way is predicting the correct 6 numbers.
OC,
Glad to see you caught that too.
I posted a similar observation down below.
It IS a big HUH?
A major contradiction that he should have been called on.
Good (and very real) analogy! Thanks for making me laugh! Except it’s more like…
I got one lotto number last night… I just need 5 more to get the big pay off.
You ain’t see anything yet . . . . .prof !
If they are smart and know what they are talking about, why didn’t they predicated the real estate and market bubble? The only reason the economy is doing good now is because of government printing and giving out funny money. How long can they do that and what affect will that have on the economy?
I’m saving this article for comedy purposes
Amazing that some here can read this interview and see what they want and disregard the rest.
Vandell does one of the strangest non-sequiturs ever and yet no one notices and and no one calls him on it.
………..
He is asked:
When will the residential market begin to recover?
He answers:
“In my opinion, it already has,” Vandell told local members of Lambda Alpha International, a society devoted to land economics.
Then he issues this caveat, warning of issues yet to be faced:
- A massive wave of foreclosures is yet to come.
- Banks are delaying “taking the hit” on those devalued properties.
- Credit still very tight.
- Unemployment is still increasing.
- State spending cuts will offset federal stimulus in California.
- Prices and rents are still high.
As I said, amazing.
Any one of those events would derail a recovery. Put them all together and it makes his position beyond foolish.
He’s doing the double shuffle….saying all is well and at the same time pointing out that it’s not.
When later he’s told he was wrong he’ll say, “I warned you of all this, back when.”
Silly and irresponsible for the interviewer not to call him on this.
Understandable that the resident cheerleader(s) don’t even see this discrepancy — they see what they want to see and disregard the rest. (credit to Paul Simon:)
It didn’t take me too long reading that guy. To find out he was a fraud.
And wondering what kind of an economist is this guy. like others are saying here. Totally out of touch.
As far as Blame for the Economic and Real Estate Meltdown, no one walks away free. All of the above listed were a part of the problem and certainly the Federal Government for it’s loose policies on home ownership is a big culprit. In addition and an important element is
Basic human greed, which was left out of the equation. In reality, everyone wanted to jump on the band wagon, buy a house to have appreciation and a cash cow. People couldn’t wait to buy one house, re-finance after a year, buy anohter (or a Hummer, pay for college, take a vacation etc) . All of these other elements facilitated this looseness and certainly borrowers making $20,000 per year knew that they couln’t affort the payments, but thought everything would be alright because of appreciation.
The media also drove this upward movement by daily reporting appreication statistics. Almost everyone and anyone was afraid to be left behind.
It’s hard to think, even with low inventory, that we are now on the path to recovery. In the real estate industry, we’re being told to prepare for two million foreclosures for the next two and even three years.
The job market also is not getting stronger, even the institutions are recovering.
As far as the existing market–it’s good below $750,000.
It’s a seller’s market. Foreclosures increased in the above $750,000 from 6.5% of the sales last year to 11.4% this year. I think the market is going to continue to feel the effects from unemployment, less work for many of our business owners, and people being upside down in their houses.
From AP:
Fewer home-building permits signal weakness ahead
Applications for housing permits fall in September, wholesale prices also drop
Trolling for bad news, eh? This is fantastic for owners.
Searching for bad news, eh? This is fantastic for owners.
Searching? No need to search. It is everywhere - guess you are blinded by the sun - you know, you have to look away some time. Just b/c people tell you to do it doesn’t mean you have to.
Once again, Tracker responds despite her proclamation to the contrary.
Sure - owners lose more money. Fantastic. That is why you are underwater like thousands of others. Now go back to looking into the sun.
Tracker,
“Fantastic for owners”?
Did you read the whole thing? “Wholesale prices also drop”.
Use your head…..ooops, let me explain. Builders aren’t building because everything is going down. When they do finally build again their costs will be less, as will be the prices they need to get to make a profit.
Don’t delude yourself about this being good for inventory. There is an abundance of inventory, the builders know that.
Builders don’t build in a deflationary market. They know better. Now, maybe you will too.
Small businesses are the lifeblood of OC. Their owners have been high income earners who bot and supported homes in high-end neighborhoods all over OC.
But, today, these high earners are being pounded due to the degraded econ landscape, surging operating costs, rising taxes, massive credit contraction and most importantly…personal income is FALLING. On top of that . . . .
“Money for high-growth firms drying up”
http://jan.freedomblogging.com/2009/10/19/money-for-high-growth-firms-drying-up/23981/private-equity-deal-flow/
Chart OC housing prices= the sawtooth pattern in a down trend continues.
And they all ATM their homes as well
No way. GDP growing with this administration higher taxes are coming, crazy health care plan who is paying for that? There will be no long term growth with this Congress and President.
Well, continue cheap money that we are experiencing again will drive housing prices higher as were starting to see. They will flip them make a profit and buy more. The others who rent them out will help the renters there will be plenty to chose. Sooner or later the cycle will stop again when interest rates go up won’t take much to do it. I predict 5 years from now we will have high inflation, high interest rates and no longer can the taxpayer fund FHA, Fannie and Freddie Mac and housing prices will finally reach their true value. We have propped up prices for over 20 years with government loans. What happens when down payments will be required at 10-20 percent? What happens when government can no longer fund the market. Which is us? Were out of money!!! The dollar sinking and government run institutions running private markets is why….and than there is healthcare….hold on were in for ride…..
wow theresa, hold your horses.
all you are mentioning is taking place right now (slowly) those programs from government will end november 30.
The interest might go up next year (The Country need Revenues) and keeping it down is a high risk of going back to square one.
Home prices will continue to go down.
The treasury is at fault regarding all of the above. And eventually they would have to lift the dollar, or face inflation. So right now (for them) is a catch-22
And finally many countries want to take out the Dollar as a trading-currency.
Well, must be nice to be delusional.
Yeah, the government interference will stop any day now.
“Treasury dept. unveils program to fund mortgages”
http://scpr.org/news/2009/10/20/treasury-dept-unveils-program-fund-mortgages/
Tracker once again applauds our government’s socialistic activities.
“Housing credit extension on track”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28502.html#
“But the tax credit extension was warmly received by Republicans as well as Democrats on the panel. Dodd’s is an original co-sponsor of the proposal with Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.). Their measure would extend the $8,000 credit through the end of June and expand it to all homebuyers making up to $150,000 for individuals or $300,000 for couples.”
Tracker I suggest you to read Today’s report from Diana Olick (cnbc) because it looks like is NOT going to happens.
go and check that out.
That’s great and when gas is $10/gallon and CPI is 20% we can think boy this is so much better than having affordable housing.
EXACTLY!!!
No housing cheerleaders will EVER address this point. They aren’t interested in a good, healthy, strong economy. They are ONLY interested in pushing product, hitting numbers, and generating commissions. It’s to the point where the bulls here have gone completely RED.
Very good summary of a key big picture issue, Eat that.
Are the words: ‘ socialism, communism, socialist, or communist ‘ on some kind of a moderation list?
I’ve noticed missing posts containing those words.
And yet again, Tracker applauds our planned economy.
So tracker thinks that housing weakness is good for owners. Now that is new math if I ever heard it…
And tracker and shockg criticize when people refer to past sales to show substnatial losses, but when a cherry picked sale is a gain relative to a prior sale, that is all tracker has and she relies on it. Too funny. Is it 2009 or isn’t it? I don’t think tracker even knows. Clueless.
You are a worthless moron. All you have to add is filth and insults.
Doubling of value since 2001 is relevant. No one gives a rat’s azz what you think about it. I post closed sales every day, none are cherry-picked. Yes, no new housing constructed is good for owners - deal with it, freak.
There you go again - referring to 2001. You have said, countless time, it is 2009. So which is it? 2001 or 2009. Make up your mind. If you can’t, get medication.
Sadly, the only person who cares what you think is you. Must be lonely in that little Santa Ana condo…
And there you go again - responding to me when you proclaimed you never would. You are so easy to manipulate.
Then go do some work instead of patrolling the blogs 24/7.
Geez. Tracker is losing it. Unraveling by the minute.
SC2 is feeling boxed into his little apartment. Apartment living will do that to you especially in old age.
Too bad my “apartment” is larger than some of the townhomes down the street, and those suckers pay 2x as much. Keep dreaming, shockg - some people have it better than you.
My office is larger than some apartments… now go scurry away to your cubicle worker bee.
Please post the redfin links to your examples.
That comment regarding “continuing low interest” will drive [recovery] housing prices as a “bad thing,” just makes me furious. Just like recovery of the stockmarket will “price out” opportunity for investors? Those of us who invested wisely should be willing to “open the doors?”
It never ceases to amaze me the numbers of posters willing to remove all doubt that they are inherently so dumb that “inspiration will not come!”
Location, location, location. It would be great to live in Bel Air [??], as opposed to affordable homes close to Disneyland, and there are many? Then there is the “heat” and expense of air conditioning, as opposed to those near the Sea, “the beautiful Sea,” where values demand higher costs and payments. Is it fair? Should not everyone have such opportunity?
On Rock’s recent episode, Alex Baldwin, the really sophisticated, exquisitely groomed and attired CEO, is confronted by a lowly employee who had discovered that while staff was enduring budget cuts, the CEO had actually been given a bonus, and without a grimace, Baldwin’s character replies, “because I am more valuable to the company than you are;” he was talking to a page!
The media in general does not have the inclination or persausion of editors to pursue the introduction of relevant facts and they are content in those zones of mediocrity to pounce on the very elements of the economic crises to propel and sustain it. by simplistic references to falling values … like “fire sale” at Nordstrom?
Were real estate agents not compensated by commission, they would be less willing to batter sellers to “cut prices” to convenience their ability to pay their bills with those checks upon a closed escrow, , and any honest agent will admit that with any new listing, associates of their firms will siddle up and ask, “can’t you get your seller to drop that price?”
Economists are theorists within their own confines and rare it is they all come to agreement.
Meantime there is THE STIMULUS and TARP and who actually benefited: ORGANIZED LABOR .. PARTICULARLY PULBIC EMPLOYEE UNIONS .. AND THOSE FIRMS COMPATIBLE WITH UNION LABOR and eligibility to bid on PUBLIC WORKS CONTRACTS.
You cannot drive across Orange County without having to HOP construction zones; Santa Ana seems to have no reluctance whatsoever to totally chew up all city streets .. try to avoid one and you find yourself jammed into another!.
Well I have to admit. I’m having fun with “Tracker, and SC2″ I think you guys. Are missing each other.
Oh well they hate, brings love…
They are both going over the edge. SC2 is tro_lling and posting junk and Tracker has completely fallen for the goading and manipulation.
Can you guys both knock it off please?
SC2, you aren’t helping your side. You are making bears look stupid and you don’t represent us.
Tracker, stop responding! You are too smart for this and unfortunately, when SC2 says idiot things like “You are so easy to manipulate.” and “Unraveling by the minute.” he is right. Don’t you see the irony behind your statement “You are a worthless moron. All you have to add is filth and insults.”??? Don’t feed the tro_ll!
Well Brain, I often post supporting links or data, whereas all Tracker does is post closings, which may not be 100% acurate and circles back on her own criticism. And I never said I represent you… and when was the last time you saw tracker run around like a chicken with her head cut off?
“Now that tracker has agreed that it is wise to look at prior sales, even back to 2001, she can no longer criticize people who point out how much sellers lost compared to a prior sale. And when shockg makes the same criticism, shockg is also criticizing tracker.”
“Well Brain, I often post supporting links or data, whereas all Tracker does is post closings, which may not be 100% acurate and circles back on her own criticism.”
I’m glad you post supporting links & data. You also go way off topic to personally attack Tracker. Attack Tracker’s data and opinions, fine. That is informative. But talking about “piggies” and “underwear stains” is way overboard.
Don’t get me wrong; a little back-and-forth ribbing can be pretty fun. But I just think that lately it has gotten out of hand. Don’t you? Am I overreacting?
“And I never said I represent you”
Fair enough. Apologies to you.
“when was the last time you saw tracker run around like a chicken with her head cut off?”
Pretty much every time I see you doing it :) You bring out the best in her.
Sometimes “attacks” or, some might say, “characterization of facts” are warranted. And, you really have to watch how those threads develop…
Hmmmm Chicken.
Lasnser, Do us all a favor and Ban SC2 and his childish name calling.
Do us all a favor and knock some sense into the village idiot shockg
IT’S REALLY QUITE SIMPLE FOLKS .. . .
Pertaining to the macro econ landscape and current home price levels
The Gov’t has two choices:
1) maintain large annual deficits until our creditors refuse to finance them.
2) tolerate another leg down in our economy by accepting some measure of fiscal discipline.
Obviously, at this point, Gov’t has chosen #1
Ironically, the laws of exponents and simple math are much more powerful than any Gov’t and in due time, #2 will prevail and force itself upon the Gov’t.
The next leg down will be excruciating
tic, tic, tic
They are already walking away Bogey, Japan/China/russia/Brazil they all want a new currency to dump the dollar, And when that day comes…we will wake up having a devaluated dollar in our accounts. In other words if you have $1 dollar in your checking. It will drop to .23 cents.
Hold down to your hats guys.
Yeah, isn’t that great. The bulls should be so proud of what we have done as a nation and the consequences that will be fall our children and grandchild. I, for one, am planning on leaving this country if I can, problem now is my dollar is worthless in other countries. Thanks greedy scum RE bulls and liar loan fraudsters.
Bogey, don’t you know that OC is protected by an economic force field generated by the combined sheer will and determination of RE bulls?
Tracker says:
October 20, 2009 at 12 pm…Doubling of value since 2001 is relevant. I post closed sales every day, none are cherry-picked.
Hey dufus, you’re dreaming of the old days.
FYI, It’s 2009 and we’re looking forward here, not backwards. It’s old news that people made money buying in the past.
The crux of the discussion pertaining to RE as an investment is what’s going to happen in the next 5-10 years; for the people buying now. At this point, since peak credit and peak income was reached in the US in 2007, the math and smart money says: a home (lived-in) will be viewed as a consumption item, not an investment item.
Glad I could clear that up for you.
PS: WGAS about your silly little posted ‘closes’. We already know that homes will sell every month in OC, regardless of price. Clearly, investors are grabbing every deal they can with the belief they can move inventory through this low inventory environment.
With emphasis on ‘ the belief’ Lol
ta ta
only a fool would argue with history–
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/classic-case-shiller-hosuing-price-chart-updated/
Shockg, tracker, vor, gunner, trs…
I do believe in adversity, and being adverse is nothing wrong. specially when is based in facts.
Like your case
“Homes: About to get much cheaper”
http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/20/real_estate/home_price_forecast/index.htm
tracker /shockg/ trs please feel free to debate mr farrells points- one by one- I’m just dying to hear a realtors opinion
Oct. 20, 2009, 1:38 p.m. EDT
Death of ‘Soul of Capitalism:’ Bogle, Faber, Moore
20 reasons America has lost its soul and collapse is inevitable
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Jack Bogle published “The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism” four years ago. The battle’s over. The sequel should be titled: “Capitalism Died a Lost Soul.” Worse, we’ve lost “America’s Soul.” And worldwide the consequences will be catastrophic.
That’s why a man like Hong Kong’s contrarian economist Marc Faber warns in his Doom, Boom & Gloom Report: “The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today.”
Insuring against economic calamityGold ETFs are so popular they now hold more of the shiny stuff than most central banks. What will it take to sustain the funds’ big gains? Barron’s Clare McKeen reports.
No, not just another meltdown, another bear market recession like the one recently triggered by Wall Street’s “too-greedy-to-fail” banks. Faber is warning that the entire system of capitalism will collapse. Get it? The engine driving the great “American Economic Empire” for 233 years will collapse, a total disaster, a destiny we created.
OK, deny it. But I’ll bet you have a nagging feeling maybe he’s right, the end may be near. I have for a long time: I wrote a column back in 1997: “Battling for the Soul of Wall Street.” My interest in “The Soul” — what Jung called the “collective unconscious” — dates back to my Ph.D. dissertation: “Modern Man in Search of His Soul,” a title borrowed from Jung’s 1933 book, “Modern Man in Search of a Soul.” This battle has been on my mind since my days at Morgan Stanley 30 years ago, witnessing the decline.
Has capitalism lost its soul? Guys like Bogle and Faber sense it. Read more about the soul in physicist Gary Zukav’s “The Seat of the Soul,” Thomas Moore’s “Care of the Soul” and sacred texts.
But for Wall Street and American capitalism, use your gut. You know something’s very wrong: A year ago “too-greedy-to-fail” banks were insolvent, in a near-death experience. Now, magically they’re back to business as usual, arrogant, pocketing outrageous bonuses while Main Street sacrifices, and unemployment and foreclosures continue rising as tight credit, inflation and skyrocketing Federal debt are killing taxpayers.
Yes, Wall Street has lost its moral compass. They created the mess, now, like vultures, they’re capitalizing on the carcass. They have lost all sense of fiduciary duty, ethical responsibility and public obligation.
Here are the Top 20 reasons American capitalism has lost its soul:
1. Collapse is now inevitable
Capitalism has been the engine driving America and the global economies for over two centuries. Faber predicts its collapse will trigger global “wars, massive government-debt defaults, and the impoverishment of large segments of Western society.” Faber knows that capitalism is not working, capitalism has peaked, and the collapse of capitalism is “inevitable.”
When? He hesitates: “But what I don’t know is whether this final collapse, which is inevitable, will occur tomorrow, or in five or 10 years, and whether it will occur with the Dow at 100,000 and gold at $50,000 per ounce or even confiscated, or with the Dow at 3,000 and gold at $1,000.” But the end is inevitable, a historical imperative.
2. Nobody’s planning for a ‘Black Swan’
While the timing may be uncertain, the trigger is certain. Societies collapse because they fail to plan ahead, cannot act fast enough when a catastrophic crisis hits. Think “Black Swan” and read evolutionary biologist Jared Diamond’s “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed.”
A crisis hits. We act surprised. Shouldn’t. But it’s too late: “Civilizations share a sharp curve of decline. Indeed, a society’s demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak population, wealth and power.”
Warnings are everywhere. Why not prepare? Why sabotage our power, our future? Why set up an entire nation to fail? Diamond says: Unfortunately “one of the choices has depended on the courage to practice long-term thinking, and to make bold, courageous, anticipatory decisions at a time when problems have become perceptible but before they reach crisis proportions.”
Sound familiar? “This type of decision-making is the opposite of the short-term reactive decision-making that too often characterizes our elected politicians,” thus setting up the “inevitable” collapse. Remember, Greenspan, Bernanke, Bush, Paulson all missed the 2007-8 meltdown: It will happen again, in a bigger crisis.
3. Wall Street sacked Washington
Bogle warned of a growing three-part threat — a “happy conspiracy” — in “The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism:” “The business and ethical standards of corporate America, of investment America, and of mutual fund America have been gravely compromised.”
But since his book, “Wall Street America” went over to the dark side, got mega-greedy and took control of “Washington America.” Their spoils of war included bailouts, bankruptcies, stimulus, nationalizations and $23.7 trillion new debt off-loaded to the Treasury, Fed and American people.
Who’s in power? Irrelevant. The “happy conspiracy” controls both parties, writes the laws to suit its needs, with absolute control of America’s fiscal and monetary policies. Sorry Jack, but the “Battle for the Soul of Capitalism” really was lost.
4. When greed was legalized
Go see Michael Moore’s documentary, “Capitalism: A Love Story.” “Disaster Capitalism” author Naomi Klein recently interviewed Moore in The Nation magazine: “Capitalism is the legalization of this greed. Greed has been with human beings forever. We have a number of things in our species that you would call the dark side, and greed is one of them. If you don’t put certain structures in place or restrictions on those parts of our being that come from that dark place, then it gets out of control.”
Greed’s OK, within limits, like the 10 Commandments. Yes, the soul can thrive around greed, if there are structures and restrictions to keep it from going out of control. But Moore warns: “Capitalism does the opposite of that. It not only doesn’t really put any structure or restrictions on it. It encourages it, it rewards” greed, creating bigger, more frequent bubble/bust cycles.
It happens because capitalism is now in “the hands of people whose only concern is their fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders or to their own pockets.” Yes, greed was legalized in America, with Wall Street running Washington.
5. Triggering the end of our ‘life cycle’
Like Diamond, Faber also sees the historical imperative: “Every successful society” grows “out of some kind of challenge.” Today, the “life cycle” of capitalism is on the decline.
He asks himself: “How are you so sure about this final collapse?” The answer: “Of all the questions I have about the future, this is the easiest one to answer. Once a society becomes successful it becomes arrogant, righteous, overconfident, corrupt, and decadent … overspends … costly wars … wealth inequity and social tensions increase; and society enters a secular decline.” Success makes us our own worst enemy.
Quoting 18th century Scottish historian Alexander Fraser Tytler: “The average life span of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years” progressing from “bondage to spiritual faith … to great courage … to liberty … to abundance … to selfishness … to complacency … to apathy … to dependence and … back into bondage!”
Where is America in the cycle? “It is most unlikely that Western societies, and especially the U.S., will be an exception to this typical ’society cycle.’ … The U.S. is somewhere between the phase where it moves ‘from complacency to apathy’ and ‘from apathy to dependence.’”
In short, America is a grumpy old man with hardening of the arteries. Our capitalism is near the tipping point, unprepared for a catastrophe, set up for collapse and rapid decline.
15 more clues capitalism lost its soul … is a disaster waiting to happen
Much more evidence litters the battlefield:
Wall Street wealth now calls the shots in Congress, the White House
America’s top 1% own more than 90% of America’s wealth
The average worker’s income has declined in three decades while CEO compensation exploded over ten times
The Fed is now the ‘fourth branch of government’ operating autonomously, secretly printing money at will
Since Goldman and Morgan became bank holding companies, all banks are back gambling with taxpayer bailout money plus retail customer deposits
Bill Gross warns of a “new normal” with slow growth, low earnings and stock prices
While the White House’s chief economist retorts with hype of a recovery unimpeded by the “new normal”
Wall Street’s high-frequency junkies make billions trading zombie stocks like AIG, FNMA, FMAC that have no fundamental value beyond a Treasury guarantee
401(k)s have lost 26.7% of their value in the past decade
Oil and energy costs will skyrocket
Foreign nations and sovereign funds have started dumping dollars, signaling the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency
In two years federal debt exploded from $11.2 to $23.7 trillion
New financial reforms will do little to prevent the next meltdown
The “forever war” between Western and Islamic fundamentalists will widen
As will environmental threats and unfunded entitlements
“America Capitalism” is a “Lost Soul” … we’ve lost our moral compass … the coming collapse is the end of an “inevitable” historical cycle stalking all great empires to their graves. Downsize your lifestyle expectations, trust no one, not even media.
Faber is uncertain about timing, we are not. There is a high probability of a crisis and collapse by 2012. The “Great Depression 2″ is dead ahead. Unfortunately, there’s absolutely nothing you can do to hide from this unfolding reality or prevent the rush of the historical imperative.
somehow after contemplating this- the house that sold in Irvine today
has suddenly lost what little relevance it had
Jon, Way to make the bears squirm. Any topic with the words rapid recovery is sure to drive 100+ comments of name calling and personal attacks.
I guess shockg is overlooking tracker. What prejudice. Village idiot.
SC,
You are assuming Tracker and Shockg are not one and the same……..
They think the same, post during the same time span and spend a lot oftime complimenting each other with eqaully inane follow-up compliments.
They are eqaully dumb too. Have to be, as evidenced by their admiration of each other.
Don’t let them frustrate you. Enjoy it and be amused.
This is purely entertainment for me, whereas people who need RE for their job and/or are desperate and need the RE market to recover like shockg, tracker, etc. are bitter when news or views don’t follow their agenda. And what do you know, yet another report about rental declines… Oh yes, a hot market indeed…
Any facts about renters being in good financial shape, being smarter than sheople who bought at the peak, who are able to buy shcokg’s house at a discount and pay a fraction of what others pay for the same thing are sure to drive 100+ comments of name calling and personal attacks.
shockg says, October 18, 2009 at 7 pm
“Hey blood on your panties, get a life.”
SC2, Renting an apartment at your stage in life is nothing to brag about.
It is when I pay 1/2 compared to people next door who have the same thing - poor underwater fools. Pay 2x as much, HOAs, and hold a depreciating asset. Oh well, some people are meant to lose money
Losing quarter mil iin 3 yrs s nothing to brag about either - good job. Now you know what happens when you follow the herd
I haven’t lost anything. And you don’t own a home and probably still can’t afford the home you feel entitled to so you haven’t saved anything. Cracks me up to see all these diehard bubbleheads on here who made up their mind in 2001-2003 that we were going to see a catastrophic 50% decline across the board. The worst parts of Santa ana saw a 50% decline but the better areas? MAYBE 20% max. So you all ran out and sold your home and probably mis-timed the peak like Rant’s. Now you are holed up in your moms garage / bomb shelter blogging doom and gloom. The doom and gloom you pray for will never come. Now you are 7-9 years older, miserable and still no home. Cheers.
We can’t afford it? Put down $10k and we’ll see… Or are you going to chicken out? I didn’t even live in OC in 2001-2003, so no matter to me… All I know is that we pay 1/2 of what others pay for the same thing, and they have a depreciating asset. Was it you who bought in 2006 in Brea or Yorba? Ooohhh - that area got slammed. We know people who live in NW Yorba, bought for the low to mid 1M, and are now easily down 300k. Or maybe your price point is much lower, probably.
Let me know when you want to bet that 10k - I am waiting. Cheers, waiting to take your 10k….
Figures you would throw out some outlandish nonesense as a response. How much have u pissed away on rent? Probably close to $200,000 by now. No wonder u are so bitter. Once you factor in the wasted rent your rosie picture is not so rosie.
shockg you are a total idiot! Most are not throwing away money, we are making money on reduced rents! Thanks.
I havent lost anything— thats a blatant lie
only a complete fool believes the worst is over
and the real estate market is back to normal- but
then they were the ones who bought the hype to begin with
the recessions over- next up the big D
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/americas-soul-is-lost-and-collapse-is-inevitable-2009-10-20
hell even the cbs marketwatch main stream media sees the folly of
the governments socialist programs– while China is building a
strong manufacturing aka wealth creating base- our myopic
short term sighted government is trying to prop up a wealth
killing real estate bubble– idiots plain and simple
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/kill-the-wasteful-home-buyer-tax-credit-2009-10-20
governemnt stupidity has become obvious even to the main stream
media reporters at marketwatch
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/kill-the-wasteful-home-buyer-tax-credit-2009-10-20
Buy gold.
And don’t forget to pickup some souvenirs.
http://amzn.com/0385514352
Sales of existing homes showed another gain in August, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions (including low rates!) and a first-time buyer tax credit. The housing market is finally starting to rebound across the country & California is no exception. Using the right metrics based on the regular analysis gives an exact picture which can help make better Home buying decisions. Identifying the right market & finding the best property holds the key to success. In fact there is a tool through which you can research, compare & identify best places to invest. Look into http://www.smartzip.com/s/sz/info/offer for more information.
——-Price of Bad Tidings says:
October 20, 2009 at 9 amActually, the greater financial crisis is based on the shaky foundation of the U.S. economy. The flight of capital from the U.S. has only been mitigated by the influx of foreign credit. As our means of industrial production, and therefore real wealth, has dwindled, our economy has increasingly become asset driven. Unfortunately, such system is highly prone to overspeculation and instability.
DING!
Yes, and this comes from a UCI Professor who works for a campus that gets millions of dollars a year in economic grant money to do flawed research.
This is a joke, unemployment is going up, moratorium is over, the buyer tax credit is gone, anybody who was going to buy did. And those idiots lost any down payment they put down.
It just doesn’t add up, unemployment high + moratorium over + buyer tax credit gone = Recession over. Nah dont think so..