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Lansner on Real Estate ~ The latest news about the housing market from Orange County Register columnist Jon Lansner.

Condo prices at 10-month high in mid-June

July 10th, 2009, 12:01 am · 120 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner

For 22 business days ending June 12
Slice Price Yr. ago Sales Yr. ago
Houses $475,000 -10.4% 1,983 +15.2%
Condos $297,500 -15.0% 848 +32.1%
New $535,000 +7.4% 169 -17.2%
All O.C. $420,000 -11.6% 3,000 +16.9%

For the 22 business days ending June 12 – DataQuick’s latest homebuying report — Orange County saw …

  • $420,000 median selling price that is -11.6% vs. a year ago and -35% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000. Prices have been falling on a year-over-year basis since Sept. 2007 with the worst at -31.5% in August 2008.
  • $297,5000 median selling pricefor condos — highest since August. Yet condos sell 37% below their peak in March 2006.
  • Single-family homes sell for 35% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while builder prices for new homes are 38% below their February ‘05 top.
  • In this most recent period, O.C. shoppers bought 3,000 residences — that is +16.9% vs. year-ago buying actvity. (From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.)
  • May was 11th straight month of sales gains vs. the year-ago period. That follows 33 consecutive months where sales failed to beat the previous year’s pace.

How did your neighborhood fare? Check our ZIP-by-ZIP data HERE!

Other real estate trends …

Posted in: DataQuick reportsHome prices
 
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 120 Comments

  • lee in irvine says:

    Per DataQuick, Single-Family Median Home Price:

    ~2006~
    $690,000 = Feb ~ Watts 15% “In The Bag” for SFH
    $695,000 = Mar
    $705,000 = Apr
    $705,000 = May
    $700,000 = Jun
    $699,000 = Jul ~ Watts revises forecast to “11%” for SFH
    $685,000 = Aug
    $680,000 = Sep
    $665,000 = Oct
    $660,000 = Nov
    $665,000 = Dec

    ~2007~
    $675,000 = Jan ~ Watts forecast “7%” SFH
    $675,000 = Feb
    $695,000 = Mar
    $720,000 = Apr
    $695,000 = May
    $734,000 = Jun ~ Peak of O.C. Ponzi Scheme
    $718,000 = Jul
    $710,000 = Aug
    $655,000 = Sep
    $650,000 = Oct
    $655,000 = Nov
    $600,000 = Dec

    ~2008~
    $583,250 = Jan ~ Watts declares “Pent up Demand”
    $575.000 = Feb
    $570,000 = Mar
    $555,000 = Apr
    $537,000 = May
    $550,000 = Jun ~ Watts apologizes “I Got it Wrong”
    $515,000 = Jul
    $500,000 = Aug
    $480,000 = Sep ~ Rants “1998 Prices” In The Bag!
    $480,000 = Oct
    $430,000 = Nov
    $425,000 = Dec

    ~2009~
    $418,250 = Jan
    $434,500 = Feb
    $431,500 = Mar
    $430,000 = Apr
    $475,000 = May
    $475,000 = June 4
    $475,000 = June 12

    So far, per DataQuick, this loss represents a $259,000 collapse in single-family home prices from the temporary, June 2007 high. And the beat goes on … and on … and on!

    • Calm Down says:

      Thatta boy Lee! I know that hurt to put your list up.

      • Crystal Balls says:

        What Lee should be posting is his predictions, but I guess that wouldn’t look so good in light of how he excoriates others who did not call the market correctly. Indeed, just the other day, I noted Lee bragging about how he called the market. A little humility is good for the soul Lee, so go ahead and post it!

        • BOGEY says:

          Rather ‘telling’ that you follow him around the blog, hoping to one day quote him at a time you feel appropriate lollllllllll

          No deals in the works VoR?

        • Tom M says:

          How many jobs do you predict will be gained in Orange County this month?

        • Patricio says:

          How about calling a game in the 4th inning?

        • lee in irvine says:

          Cotton Balls … I don’t care about humility, respect or anything else regarding this massive Ponzi scheme.

    • Eat that! says:

      From this data you can see that prices in 06, 07 flattened during the spring (except in 08 when it didn’t). This year is no different.

    • Jc says:

      Oh Boy the price is so right that I will order 2, just in case

      please give two…

    • JKL says:

      Remember Lee, it’s not a matter of if prices will ever rise, it’s just a matter of when.

    • Crystal Balls says:

      Or accountability for your own errors, apparently.

      • lee in irvine says:

        Cotton Balls-

        Here’s what I do know. Your house is worth less than it was at the beginning of the year. What do you think about that?

        LoL

        • Crystal Balls says:

          That’s true, Lee. But to paraphrase Winston Churchill. My house may be worth less today, but some time in the not to distant future it will be worth more. You, however, will always be an disingenous idiot.

        • shockg says:

          Housing speculator I see.

  • Crewman says:

    The increase in median price does not mean that prices are going up…it means that a lower percentage of transactions are distressed foreclosure sales. This is happening because non-distressed sellers are now beginning to sell their properties because they’re becoming more realistic about their pricing. This narrowing of the bid/ask spread is good for the market and means we’re getting closer to finding market equilibrium at the lower end of the market. There still remains a wide spread between the bid/ask on the higher end of the market.

    • Dealeo says:

      Blah, blah, blah.

      • Linguistical says:

        I think we’ve all established that the median isn’t really a good indicator either way especially county wide. I’ve been on vacation, so I wasn’t able to see if you chimed in on my question a couple weeks ago about the types of sales that are occurring and the lack of move up buyers that such sales would produce. What effect do you think that will have on the 500k-750k market?

        • Justathought says:

          Tell that to the idiot that keeps posting the list!

        • crewman says:

          I don’t think we’ve come close to establishing that median price is a useless indicator…it still is often posted on this blog as the prime indicator of where the market is headed.

          Re agenda - I have none other than to be somewhat of a voice of reason on this blog. Dealeo and those on her side puts lots of data but offer no meaningful analysis and just go on cheerleading the return of the market. Rants and others on their side need to take some yellow pills and acknowledge the market will not keep endlessly falling. The reality is that we’re simply not building nearly enough homes for all the people who would love to live in the OC. That will automatically put a floor on pricing and make metrics like median income somewhat irrelevant.

          My take is that the sub-$500k market has bottomed and that we’ll see 3-6% appreciation from hear on out.

          My take on the the $500-$750 market is that we still have about another 5% correction to go before it bottoms with about 1-2% appreciation after that correction for the next 3 years.

          My take on the $750-$1.5m market is that we have about 10% correction left; on the $3m production (cookie cutter) homes in Newport Coast - we have another 15-20% to go.

    • shockg says:

      “Crewman says:
      July 10, 2009 at 6 am
      The increase in median price does not mean that prices are going up…”

      But i thought the median indicated that prices were going down last year?? Does the median only count when it agrees with your agenda?

      • pdu says:

        Well, duh.

      • Fixed Gear says:

        Seriously! As a renter I’m cheering on the downturn as much as the next guy so I can buy in, but you can’t say the median is MEANINGFUL on the way down and then NOT meaningful when it goes up. The median is ALWAYS meaningful. Any of these r-tards rationalizing why it doesn’t matter are in denial. It’s the MEDIAN PRICE. There’s no clearer indicator to what’s going on. I don’t care if it’s high end, low end, foreclosed not foreclosed, if the median is going down, home prices are going down, if it’s going up, home prices are going up. It IS that simple.

        • Linguistical says:

          Actually, that’s not correct. The median means the value in the exact middle. In this case it’s the value of the house that sold where half the properties sold for a higher amount and half sold for lower. If it were the median sale price in a single neighborhood for like properties it would be a good indicator. When it is the median sale price for all of OC for all properties it really is not a good indicator. I’m not saying that this is what’s happening, but if several $3mil houses sell for $1mil then the median will go up, but values will go down. That’s why it’s a bad indicator for both sides of the argument.

          For a better indicator you should select cities/neighborhoods you want to live, select a type of property (type, size, etc.) and track the median of sales for those alone. Then you will see where prices are going in the market you’re interested in. Looking at OC as a whole is like looking at CA or the US as a whole. Not a good indicator.

        • Patricio says:

          Price per square foot is a better matrix to measure by.

        • Linguistical says:

          True, or a combination of both.

  • Dealeo says:

    Three thousand sales, huh?

    • lee in irvine says:

      That’s Right.

      “From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.”

      Pathetic!

      • BOGEY says:

        Not even 18K in Govt housing welfare, unsustainable record low rates and lower prices have produced any notable sales volume. However, what is notable…. move-up buyers are DOA and no organic sales increase in 19 months.

        The people have spoken

        • Crystal Balls says:

          Organic sales? I guess thats like Organic vegatables. There were 3000 buyers and the number is continuing to climb on a consistent basis as the median continues to increase. I don’t think this means we have true increases in prices, but we definitely have a trend toward stabilization. The bottom of the single market (i.e. starter homes) does not look like it will go below the high 300K/low 400K level. Many of the bears on this blog believe that is the eventual price point for executive quality single family homes in the nicer areas of Orange County. Your fantasy is slipping away, bears.

        • pdu says:

          My goodness, look how many were buying when it was a fool’s market.

          Most of those haven’t gotten any smarter, as we see here on this blog. Many “owners” (of mortgage debt) are just unable to sell and haven’t any way to buy even if they wanted to.

          There are still a lot of fools out there.
          Some still need to learn that the previous price levels were unsustainable and the market volume today shows the current prices are still too high. Those that don’t understand this are being told so by the lenders.

          Used to be that the underwriting process kept the fools from buying what they couldn’t afford. Today it’s returning to that situation.

          It should be obvious that those wanting to sell are having to lower their expectations in order to find a willing and able buyer. Willing is no longer enough.

  • Gunner says:

    Up, up and away. Here we come $600K median 2012 is in the bag. When you bears finally wake up and see prices have nowhere to go but up, then you will be out buying, pushing prices even higher.
    As a reminder, dear students, if you bought at the RE bottom in Jan 09, you would have made $50K in just six months and lived in your dream house.

    • Linguistical says:

      I think this one deserves the “blah, blah, blah.”

    • Tom M says:

      I love you guys, the minute someone mentions jobs you all become deaf mutes.

      • Mulliganville says:

        What are you talking about? I responded to your jobs post a few days ago. Of course jobs affect RE sales. Jobs are bad here and 3000 sales. Where is the beef here?

  • Gunner says:

    Notice how fewer and fewer bears are on this topic. The truth of increasing RE prices is hard to swallow since they have been swimming in a see of bad data.

    • Linguistical says:

      And Gimper knows all about swallowing…

    • Tom M says:

      Ya with all those new jobs prices can only go up.

    • buy the dip later says:

      All part of the summer peak season. It’s called seasonality, jacknut. Explain to us what is the driving force to the new bull market? Exactly.

    • Lucky victim says:

      GUnner I’m a noob renter and don’t know jack about real estate but even I find your credibility vanishing the more you post.

      • Gunner says:

        Only thing you need to know is if you bought in Jan 09 like I said, you would have earned a cool $50K and lived in the place you owned. That’s okay Lucky, you might be priced out already, but start saving like crazy for the next bottom in 2014.

  • BOGEY says:

    Crystal Balls says:
    July 10, 2009 at 8 am: Your fantasy is slipping away, bears

    Seems you’re the one with the fantasy and judging by many of your posts of late, apparently Lee is involved.

    • Crystal Balls says:

      My real fantasy is you will have something worthwhile to say, Bogey. But I think we can all feel fairly confident that dream won’t come true.

  • VoiceofReason says:

    The only question left is at what medium price point do the haters/bears put their scraggly grey ponytail between their legs and ride off into the darkness on their homemade ‘76 Honda-made-into-a-chopper???!!!! I say $501k gets them to do the suckers walk. llllllllloooooooolllllllll!!!

    • Tom M says:

      Now that you don’t need a job to buy a house it doesn’t matter how high prices go.

  • BOGEY says:

    Keep buying those homes sheeple, the Calif Govt needs you and your prop tax money badly, ie: Calif. paying $80 million a day in jobless benefits.

    They will even give you an extra 10K in tax cuts just to buy a home lolllll, that’s how bad they need it.

  • VoiceofReason says:

    Proto-typical hater/bear thinking: “If present conditions don’t support my doomsday theory, there must be a conspiracy!!!!” Funny how those conspiracies always come from that guy-blogging-from-his-mothers-basement-who-has-never-had-a-date (with a girl). LLLLOOLLL.
    It’s the “shadow inventory” caper!!!! hahahahaha

  • King says:

    What percentages of houses are selling for more than their sales comps? My guess is none. Regardless of median price, values are falling across the board.

    • Fixed Gear says:

      “Regardless of median price, values are falling across the board.”

      IGNORANT. And a contradiction in terms.

      • Linguistical says:

        Ignorant? Hmmm, pot meet kettle. Fail…you’re going to have to go look up the meaning of median sale price and home value to participate in this debate.

        Nice shirts by the way, I always associate skulls and other such tough guy symbols with 10-speeds. I bet you look totally bad4ss with one of those on with your tight shiny pants and sweet aerodynamic retard helmet! No wonder you’re still a renter ;)

  • buy the dip later says:

    Oh yeah, shadow inventory is a conspiracy. Even though there is many data to back up shadow inventory. Don’t believe the bears who have nothing to gain, but believe the RE salesman who want to make their commission. Do you not believe in evolution as well? You are another jacknut.

    “I’m talking about the inventory of foreclosed properties that banks are holding onto, refusing to unleash onto the sales market. Out of more than 4 million homes currently owned by lenders, actively in foreclosure, or seriously delinquent, roughly 1 million are captured in the NAR’s [National Association of Realtors] inventory data and listed as “distressed inventory” in MLS,”

    “Based on our analysis of the most recent mortgage delinquency trends (through March), current data shows signs of further deterioration, not stabilization.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/31801754

    • Mulliganville says:

      All of OC is shadow inventory until it hits the market. Whether it is REO or family owned. The banks are not so stupid that they are going to flood the market with all of their homes at once. Do builders do this? No. They ease them into the marketplace. So, where is the outrage of the builder shadow inventory over the years. Hmmmm…

  • BOGEY says:

    VoR , If you can’t answer a man’s arguments, all is not lost; you can still call him names lolllll

  • Beachchic says:

    Bears = realists
    Bulls = realtorfrauds

    • VoiceofReason says:

      beachchics=fun

    • Mulliganville says:

      All bears are not realists as all bulls are not agents. But you knew this already.

    • quarmilearner says:

      Bears = renter, home-owner wanna be, sold their house in 2000 - thinking as top, basement resident. Apartment balcony = backyard, front yard, side yard.

      Bulls = not bears

  • BOGEY says:

    Loads of inventory available in OC; ie:

    San Clemente: 700 units
    Irvine: 1000+ units
    NB: 800 units
    CM: 380 units
    Coto: 330 units
    SA: 1420 units
    RSM: 313 units
    SJC: 321 units
    Tustin: 370 units
    MV: 530 units
    Laguna Beach: 527 units

    • VoiceofReason says:

      Units of what, bear IV drip?? (I still got it!!)

    • Mulliganville says:

      What would you say is the average amount of monthly inventory over the years which inspired the monthly 4300 sales? Would you think it would be higher than our 9000 of today?

      • BOGEY says:

        What inspired the monthly 4300 sales in OC was easy money/no doc/PickPmnt PO ARM’s etc., etc. Nothing to do whatsoever with level of avail inventory.

  • shockg says:

    We hit 3000 sales. Nice. I bet we see 4000 next summer.

  • Jc says:

    Hey experts, if i buy property, can I pay IOU’s ?

    I just love it, everybody talks like professors in math, and others like lawyers…BS

    And all lost their compass, having their @$$’s Aiming north.

  • Bill says:

    Hey graphrix,

    What’s the scoop on the surge in OC pre-foreclosures?

    648 notices were sent out throughout OC on Thursday (7/09/09).

    • Dealeo says:

      Bull!

      • Bill says:

        It’s public information you lazy slouch!

        Read it and weep!!!

        • Dealeo says:

          Complete and utter bullsh!t.

        • Bill says:

          Ummm…….That would describe your liar loan!

          If you think all of the foreclosure tracking sites are all of a sudden committing fraud, then you better show up with some facts or shut your pie.

        • Dealeo says:

          Bozo, I get weekly reports from a title company!

        • Bill says:

          I wouldn’t believe a word you say.

          Kind of like when you got owned by Matt and First Americanthe

          They both had to call BS on you………

          Dealeo says:
          July 9, 2009 at 11:44 am

          Matt, I’m pretty sure you misspoke about the 90 day lates not having NOD………….yadda yadda yadda……..BS….BS….BS……..

          Mathew Padilla says:
          July 9, 2009 at 4:38 pm

          That’s what First American told me.

          Dealeo says:
          July 9, 2009 at 11:49 am

          Same for this:…………yadda….yadda……more lies and deceit….

          Mathew Padilla says:
          July 9, 2009 at 4:39 pm

          Again your take is not consistent with what the company told me.

        • Dealeo says:

          I will be proven right in due time!

        • Eat that! says:

          HA! Famous last words! You’ll be proven right in due time and when will that be? 2020?

  • jj says:

    Not sure what the bulls are cheering at here; maybe just not a full understanding of statistics? The increase in median was predicted and in conjunction with continued low sales volume and lack of jumbo or exotic financicing means that price declines are bigger/are in greater force and are starting to move up the chain quite rapidly.

    As one who believes are economy as a whole is doomed until we get back to housing fundamentals (people can’t spend so much of their paycheck on a non-productive asset (rent or mortgage) and have enough left over to buy the things they need to survive and keep all the other sectors thriving… and of course, if other sectors die, housing dies as well since there are no more jobs for people to pay those rents or mortgages), I’m hoping the median goes through the roof! It means the mid & higher end homes are finally dropping and the sales mix is moving up.

    The SF House I rent just sold at a greatly reduced price; unfortunatley next door, also for sale, dropped out of escrow now that people are actually doing real apprasials and escrows. Probably will sell for about $300K less than the pice of 2-3 years ago. And it’s just gettin’ going.

    • Dealeo says:

      Blah, blah, blah. I deal with facts, not fantasy, every single day of the week. I am working on 12 properties right this minute, just like every other day, and I can tell you for a fact that the market has stabilized.

      • buy the dip later says:

        lol ummmm ok

      • Bill says:

        The day Bob’s Big Boy had their job fair you were nowhere in sight on here.

        You working on 12 dirty dishes I could understand, but properties…….lololololol

        Ahhhh…..you unemployed realtors never cease to amaze me with your BS.

      • jj says:

        Well, enjoy your facts and deals then. I won’t tell you not to proceed. It would cost me about $800 more a month (tax benefits included) to purchase the house next door than to rent it; so if that’s stabilzation and good deals, then have at ‘em.

        Also, if you’re doing all these deals, the county could really use some money so if you could bid up the prices so they have a higher tax base, then that would be appreciated.

      • BOGEY says:

        What facts?

      • Tom M says:

        Ya, you think thats good, I am working on 13 properties and the sale of a horse right this second.

    • jj says:

      meant… “… doing real apprasials and home inspections (not escrows)”

  • Dealeo says:

    Some of today’s closings:

    6289 Pacific Pointe Dr, Huntington Beach
    2,043 square feet
    $735,000

    22 Via Diamante, Newport Coast
    4,100 square feet
    $3,190,000

    11781 Bartlett St, Garden Grove
    1,112 square feet
    $425,000

    56 Seton Rd, Irvine
    1,896 square feet
    $575,000

    5509 Como Ave, Santa Ana
    1,224 square feet
    $350,000

    • Eat that! says:

      And I could provide hundreds of listings that are short sales/pre-foreclosures in South OC which are essentially the market. I know that the banks are giving them away but, on the face of it, that isn’t a healthy RE market. How are the banks going to keep this up? Face facts, the move up market is losing available buyers everyday, those homes will have to sell for less and the comparable homes will have to adjust on down the RE ladder.

      • Dealeo says:

        Put ‘em up! Let’s go, blabbermouth!

        • Eat that! says:

          Just look at how many are short sales are in the MLS. I don’t have to list them, they are out there and they are huge, huge numbers. Nearly all will foreclose and not just in SA. No neighborhood is going to be immune.

  • BOGEY says:

    One of todays many listings:

    PASS THE KNIFE. “RE IN OC ALWAYS GOES UP” -realtor lolllll

    Asking Price: $650,000

    Purchase Price: $795,000

    Purchase Date: 10/28/2005

    Address: 14911 Sumac Ave, Irvine, CA 92606
    Beds: 5
    Baths: 3
    Sq. Ft.: 2,350
    $/Sq. Ft.: $277
    Lot Size: 5,000 Sq. Ft.
    Property Type: Single Family Residence
    Style: Mediterranean
    Stories: 2
    Year Built: 1972
    Community: Walnut
    County: Orange
    MLS#: S579691
    Source: SoCalMLS
    Status: Active
    On Redfin: 7 days

    • Mulliganville says:

      The nation’s problem was the micro aspect of the housing view. Saying that RE always goes up on a micro level is incorrect. But, much like we contribute to our retirement accounts, we have faith that the disciplined approach to regular contributions will grow the account over time. Much the same with a macro view in RE. If you rent for a few years, that is not a big deal. But if you rent for 30 years, you would have been far better off owning over the same time period. Homes in Mission Viejo’s infancy which were purchased have been a very solid investment. And let’s be real, these homes were very expensive back in the day in comparison to other locations in the country and local area. We are talking about 1992 purchases which commanded $135-140 per foot. The land here is in demand and the price points have supported this over the years. So, the majority of people could care less about Lee’s little graph which he so loves to post. It is a micro view, which is ironic because this is precisely what most bears preach against. But you like to look at it for some reason.

      • BOGEY says:

        Very touching story Mulliganhead, but you’re still thinking the ‘old way’.

        There simply is no catalyst to fuel the return to the good old days you refer to, due to peak credit and peak income have been reached in the US.

        • Mulliganville says:

          The sky must be falling still. Touching story? Whatever that means. Those are facts. The irony remains the focus today is on a micro event led by easy financing. By your own admittance, you have stopped contributing to your 401K or SEP. Not smart. The US will NEVER have income levels duplicated by the recent run. I had no idea you could see the future. Impressive. Despite the name calling which is so juvenile for “such a smart fella,” thinking the old way of buying a home to live in and not flip is spot on the bear platform. Saving money for retirement and buying a home for a family…go ahead and sign me up for the old way of thinking.

    • Dealeo says:

      It’s 2009!

      • BOGEY says:

        drinking and posting again?

        • Dealeo says:

          No, just pointing out the utter absurdity of posting a $150,000 loss from 2007. Helllllllllllloooooooooo, anyone home?

  • RealtorsH8Reason says:

    Realtors want your money. So of course they are going to spread their propaganda all over the internet. Consider their incentive and motivations. Don’t be stupid like the home buyers of the last 7 years. Realtors will not help you when you have no more equity and are facing foreclosure. Seriously, they couldn’t care less about you.

  • BOGEY says:

    Mulliganville says:
    July 10, 2009 at 12 pm: By your own admittance, you have stopped contributing to your 401K or SEP.

    lolll, do-tell Mulliganhead, link to that post please……

    Reducing yourself to dealeo’s level MulliganHd? Very disappointing revelation indeed.

    Mulliganville says:
    July 10, 2009 at 12 pm: Whatever that means. Those are facts.

    Correction: those WERE the facts

    ta ta …. time to take the boat out :)

    Cheers!

    • Mulliganville says:

      Forgive me if I did not get your “touching story.” I am missing the logic of “those were facts.” Every investment one makes is typically influenced heavily by past performance. I was speaking of a disciplined approach to consistent and methodical contributions to one’s retirement. I was also speaking of a macro view in housing, not a micro view. Your response was:

      “There simply is no catalyst to fuel the return to the good old days you refer to, due to peak credit and peak income have been reached in the US.”

      So either I am not getting the connection of your response, or you were responding to what I outlined above. Yes, you did not say “I am not doing X anymore.” But you did refer to it as the “old way of thinking.” So I inferred you meant you had a “new way of thinking.” Perhaps you could clarify what you meant.

      Oh, and Mulliganhead? Very rich and original. What, are you and rants in the 3rd grade still? Wear a life vest while daddy drives…

      • Dealeo says:

        Don’t take the bait from these accomplished deniers!

      • BOGEY says:

        OK Mully, seems you’re a bit of a sensitivo, therefore, going forward, I’ll refrain from attaching ‘head’ to the back end of your nom de plume.

        Let me simplify for you my conclusions pertaining to housing:

        Old way of thinking: A home is to be considered an investment item

        New way of thinking: A home is to be considered a consumption item

        Reasons:
        1) peak income has been reached in the US
        2) peak credit has been reached in the US
        3) trillions of $ in capital have been destroyed
        4) capacity utilization rates at all-time lows

        There simply is no catalyst to fuel the return to the days of the ‘old way’ of thinking pertaining to housing. The reflation trade is DOA for at least a decade. All you have to do is take a look at housing futures for confirmation.

        In Summary: There won’t be a SUSTAINABLE increase in prices until there’s a sustainable increase in buyers’ income. PERIOD! And that’s not happening any time soon, not with unemployment well into double-digits.

        Glad I could clear that up for you

  • Jc says:

    Ok guys, Now better get ready for this coming October, because the next shoe dropping is Commercials-Loans

    Because the “Crap” is rolling in.

    • quarmilearner says:

      Cool, that mean you bear guys can now buy a commercial building (warehouse ??) to live in ? Should fit plenty of you, not to mention your price target of $150/sq ft

  • SC2 says:

    Uneducated realtors at their finest…

    http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/107302/10-things-your-real-estate-broker-wont-say.html?mod=realestate-buy

    Redfin turns profitable, and for good reason. Traditional realtards said Redfin would never last. Guess they were wrong about that too, just like when they said that you had better buy in 2006 or be priced out forever…. Traditional realtards going the way of the dinosaur. Bye bye, losers…. get some comfy shoes - UE line waiting for you…

  • SMRR says:

    Buy now or be priced out forever!!

  • rants says:

    hey dealdio– if the market is as hot as you say it is-
    why pray tell arent the banks putting all their foreclosures
    onto the market right now to get rid of them? uh huh duh well
    uh ya know they uh well duh—

    multiple choice– who lies the most

    a) realtards

    b) federal reserve bankers

    take your time with that one

    the fed doesnt want their books audited because if
    they were- by their own admission– interest rates would
    spike when the rest of the world actually saw what they were
    holding on their books– read all about it right here

    mulligan- just skip this- it would go over your head– way over

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/empire-strikes-back-kohn-warns-congress.html

    • Mulliganville says:

      During the lending boom years, builders did not flood the market with their inventory. But your omniscient self knew this already…just as you know the reason why the banks do not flood the market now. I am happy to match wits with you tough guy. Anytime.

    • Mulliganville says:

      For the record, I am a huge Ron Paul advocate regarding fiscal policy.

    • VoiceofReason says:

      c) sir rants-alot

  • shockg says:

    D) SirrantsalotBogeyHWOOD

  • rants says:

    hey gilligan– I was pointing out the TRUTH about the real estate bubble on this blog three years ago — and youre were pointing
    out what again?- youre a legend– in your mind

    • Mulliganville says:

      I have always pointed out “buy when you are ready.” Not when rants tells you to. Take your socialism down the block…we are all full here.

    • Mulliganville says:

      A legend that just returned from Waikiki…had to check out the progress…it is coming along quite nicely. BLT Steak is going in on the ground level. Next time you visit the islands, I highly recommend a stop in Waikiki. Outrigger spent $3 billion renovating from Diamondhead to the Hilton. $1.4 billion in a mere 7 acre zone which includes the busiest Yard House in the nation if Vegas had not eclipsed them yet, NOBU, Roy’s, and soon to open BLT Steak. Real Estate makes me hungry…glad some solid establishments are in existence…oh, and they were freaking packed. Think Javier’s on a Thursday. Recession smession in Waikiki.

  • lucky says:

    Dealeo,

    If your still posting, keep it up. Your posts are pure entertainment. You remind me of Andy Kauffman when he did his wrestling gig.