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O.C. office owners may suffer for 8 years

July 9th, 2009, 10:39 am · 12 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner

$73 million loser in Irvine

$73 million loser in Irvine

UCLA’s survey of commercial real estate pros shows little hope for the Orange County market. The report states that UCLA economists don’t expect this market to see its peak 2006 demand until 2014, at the earliest. Why? “Excess supply of office space will continue to put pressure on rental and occupancy rates and no early turn of the market is expected.” They add …

For Orange County the hole in the office space demand created with the collapse of the home mortgage finance industry remains the cause of weak demand. Similar instances of regional economies with declines in a major industry of the size of the Orange County mortgage finance industry indicate that five or more years of expansion in other sectors is usually needed to fill in the hole.

As for the overall conditions in the state, the Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast Commercial Real Estate Survey and Index Research Project report states:

When these surveys were conducted we were hoping to see more optimism, more signs of the “green shoots” appearing elsewhere in the economy. This was not to be. As a snapshot of today’s conditions, the current surveys are decidedly pessimistic. But, they also give important clues as to the longer term supply conditions. The dynamics in the Los Angeles and San Francisco markets indicate a turning point at the end of 2010 or early 2011. For the Silicon Valley the data are less clear, but may suggest later in 2011. For the balance of the markets, the surveys clearly indicate a longer term adjustment process. The near term outlook for new construction in industrial markets does not look encouraging, but could change rapidly if those “green shoots” elsewhere turn into enough new consumption growth.

Some news of troubled commercial projects …


Vote in our polls …

Posted in: Commercial property • •
 
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 12 Comments

  • rants says:
    July 9, 2009 at 11 am

    patricio has a tiny pee pee-
    i seen it!!!

    • Patricio says:
      July 9, 2009 at 4 pm

      The definition of pathetic….even when the little grey box for “Post Reply” is gone you can’t figure out how to post under my name. It speaks volumes for you, can’t work a friggen forum software, failed in RE, failed in life and even in forum posting software. Nice work bud, your kids must be proud….ha.

  • BOGEY says:
    July 9, 2009 at 11 am

    Those RE bubbles that produce faux values combined with flat to declining incomes and massive consumer debt are nasty little suckers

  • buy the dip later says:
    July 9, 2009 at 11 am

    Just drive around any neighborhood. For Lease and For Sale sign everywhere. Empty store fronts or abandoned empty lots. Commercial RE problems just beginning.

  • rants says:
    July 9, 2009 at 11 am

    XTRA XTRA read all about it

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/31831512

    the commercial real estate market is in more
    trouble than michael jacksons doctor– which
    is to say they are both in a major world of hurt-
    yes that ticking sound you hear is the time bomb
    of commercial real estate getting ready to blow
    this house of cards economy to kingdom come–
    plan accordingly

    • rants says:
      July 9, 2009 at 1 pm

      and i also have a tiny pee pee

      • Patricio says:
        July 9, 2009 at 4 pm

        Nice job Jon, having RE pros here leaving their comments under other posters aliases. Ever heard of an IP ban? Get your IT guy on it, although you will lose 5 people when you do it, same person 5 names.

    • Mulliganville says:
      July 9, 2009 at 7 pm

      another cnbc article? They are owned by GM, yes? GM has contract jobs with Iran, yes? Nice support there rantsid. Good job.