For the 22 business days ending June 4
| Slice |
Price |
Yr. ago |
Sales |
Yr. ago |
| Houses |
$475,000 |
-11.0% |
1,927 |
+20.7% |
| Condos |
$279,500 |
-21.3% |
813 |
+26.8% |
| New |
$539,000 |
+15.9% |
158 |
-22.9% |
| All O.C. |
$420,000 |
-11.9% |
2,898 |
+18.7% |
Housing numbers for the 22 business days ending June 4 – DataQuick’s latest homebuying report — shows yet another uptick in Orange County’s overall home-price trajectory. The report shows:
- $420,000 is the median selling price which is 11.9% below a year ago and 35% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000. Prices have been falling on a year-over-year basis since Sept. 2007 with the worst at -31.5% in August 2008.
- Single-family homes sell for 35% less than their June 2007 peak price while condos sell 41% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 38% below their February 2005 top.
- In this most recent period, O.C. shoppers bought 2,898 residences — that is up 18.7% compared to buying activity a year ago. (From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.)
- May was the 11th straight month that sales increased from the year before.
How did your neighborhood fare? Check our ZIP-by-ZIP data HERE!
In other real estate news …
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“Single-family homes sell for 35% less than their June 2007 peak price while condos sell 41% below their peak in March 2006.”
what a mess!!! Unfortunately, we are not even close to the bottom and home prices will keep falling when the next wave of foreclosures hits the market in the next 3 months.
More bad news for the economy: GDP tumbled 5.5% and unemployment claims were up 15,000
What makes you think the next wave of foreclosures won’t sell for the SAME price as the last wave of foreclosures (at least in OC). After all, most foreclosures around the $500k range had multiple offers. Those who lost out on the last wave might actually raise their price a bit to make sure they don’t lose out on the opportunities of the next foreclosure wave.
That’s precisely what is happening and will continue to happen.
dont tell bubbs…he thinks they will continue to plummet.
Yes but those will be nicer homes that sell for the same price.
I love it!
And do you think that bothers a RE agent? Not in the slightest…agents do not wish for high prices…they wish for volume…lower prices = greater volume. Bring it on.
You mean bubble HOPES prices will continue to plummet. Then he ends his posts with the usual BS false sympathy.
NB–we are in the middle of 2009, not 2007 or 2006. Your quote only reaffirms why prices have gone up this year and will continue to go up until 2012.
Prices are down year over year. Stop spewing your BS.
So we can stop the Treasury from buyin RMBS right? Since it is apparent that the OC RE market is recovered and increasing in value. We can also stop the moritoriums on foreclosures and remove the dead beats from their houses. That’s the great thing about public perception, we don’t need to be spending tax payer money to artificially support the RE market when it clear (atleast to the simple minded) that the bottom is in!
You can an awful lot for someone who has no interest in buying here. Don’t you have some work to do instead of not caring so much?
Wow from you the most OCD poster ever?
Spare us Olivas Salone, dealio, liar, loser!
Oh-Oh Jakes back
No, I don’t want NAR/CAR propagandists to get away with their efforts to destroy the US. You and your ilk would rather line your pockets than give good advice, like rent if you think you’ll be moving in the next few years. Or save more until you have enough money for emergencies. No, it’s buy out of fear, buy out of greed, buy because if you don’t I won’t get my commission.
Sure, whatever gets you through the day.
See, you don’t even try to deny that the stated goal of the CAR/NAR is change the psycology of the buyer. You need to ensure that there’s a state of panic in your buyer’s decision otherwise they take more time and time equal’s money. Not only that but the less frantic the buyer the more likely the market will slow and prices will fall. Face it, you need to have bubble mania in order to keep you wallets fat.
You can’t seriously be that naive, can you???? Every producer of goods in the world is trying to get you to buy their product. That’s their job. It’s your job to decide if you want and/or need the car, soap, dinner, hemorrhoid meds, house, etc ad infinitum. I supposed you think Kellogg is trying to “psych” you into buying too many boxes of Corn Flakes!!! Hint; THEY ARE!!! hahahahahahaha
Here’s your perfect solution: DON’T BUY. Problem solved. Don’t worry about the rest of us. We’ll do just fine without your thoughts on this issue. lllllllooooollllllll
I can see that revealing the truth of your subversion is really painful. How about this: Don’t lobby to have my government give your industry advantages when it comes to mystifying the transactions. Open up the MLS to all. Don’t be in cahoots with the appraisers. And don’t tell your clients that they’d better hurry which is on nearly every listing I see. I understand that salespeople want to sell things but in this case it is against the best interests of the buyer to gloss over the down side risks. Would you tell your son or daughter who had very little savings and a shaky job market to take on a huge amount of debt in a time of economic catastrophe?
Eat that: Everybody is in sales. You are “selling” right now.
Voice of (t)reason, you do not speak for the rest of us.
Eat that is dead on the money and to your game.
Olivas Salone, Dealio, you are a freak show with multiple acts,
and illegitimate bozo circus.
yeah you’re a veritable fountain of good advice bozo
A house is a depreciating asset, keeping this in mind, affordability will dictate the future home prices not the possibility of making a passive profit. Anyone agree?
Cite your source please. I bought my house in 1994. It has not depreciated one cent.
Houses depreciate, but land goes up in value.
Not always, land can drop in value just like everything else. I have seen ocean front lots drop 50% in NB back in early 1990’s.
Repairs, improvements, property tax,insurance. X 15 years ? Are you saying you can sell it for more than you have put into it?
Yes.
Per DataQuick, Single-Family Median Home Price:
~2006~
$690,000 = Feb ~ Watts 15% “In The Bag” for SFH
$695,000 = Mar
$705,000 = Apr
$705,000 = May
$700,000 = Jun
$699,000 = Jul ~ Watts revises forecast to “11%” for SFH
$685,000 = Aug
$680,000 = Sep
$665,000 = Oct
$660,000 = Nov
$665,000 = Dec
~2007~
$675,000 = Jan ~ Watts forecast “7%” SFH
$675,000 = Feb
$695,000 = Mar
$720,000 = Apr
$695,000 = May
$734,000 = Jun ~ Peak of O.C. Ponzi Scheme
$718,000 = Jul
$710,000 = Aug
$655,000 = Sep
$650,000 = Oct
$655,000 = Nov
$600,000 = Dec
~2008~
$583,250 = Jan ~ Watts declares “Pent up Demand”
$575.000 = Feb
$570,000 = Mar
$555,000 = Apr
$537,000 = May
$550,000 = Jun ~ Watts apologizes “I Got it Wrong”
$515,000 = Jul
$500,000 = Aug
$480,000 = Sep ~ Rants “1998 Prices” In The Bag!
$480,000 = Oct
$430,000 = Nov
$425,000 = Dec
~2009~
$418,250 = Jan
$434,500 = Feb
$431,500 = Mar
$430,000 = Apr
$475,000 = May
$475,000 = June 4
So far, per DataQuick, this loss represents a $259,000 collapse in single-family home prices from the temporary, June 2007 high. And the beat goes on … and on … and on!
Just quit beatingoff OK?
That’s what you do here every day, mentally, a disturbing amount of the time.
Will you stop?
And you’re pretty good a typing with one hand too Jake
Dealeo,
You’re tripping out.
Did the Marshals finally arrive?
Lee keep posting your copy/paste chart that makes you look more and more foolish. Please throw up your predictions while you are at it!
Wow, those people waiting since Jan 09 would have to have saved about $60K since then to have kept up with the price appreciations. You should have listened to me instead of the bears on this blog.
Nothing lasts forever:
“JPMorgan, Citigroup Expand in ‘Jumbo’ Home Mortgages”
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=am.1dQct6IoM
Just noise
Qualified buyer pool is minuscule
move along . ..
BTW, you ridiculed bearish firms, such as Deutsch Bank, because they helped to create this RE bubble. Weren’t JP Morgan and Citibank participants in the bubble too? If so, shouldn’t you be suspicious of their jumbo loan programs?
No, she ridiculed the bearish firms because they disagreed with her, not because they helped to create the bubble.
Your names here: Olivas Salone, dealio, dealtracker and probably more…
Hi Jake still up to your old tricks huh.
“Barbara Desoer, head of Bank of America’s mortgage unit, said in a March interview the bank was seeking to make more jumbo mortgages, offering “extremely competitive” rates to consumers. The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank “has balance-sheet capacity and we’ve allocated it to jumbos given our presence in some of the states and regions where that’s important,” she said. “We’re very much open for business.”
Interview was conducted in March yet still no Jumbo action to date
child’s-play tracker
next . . . .
Not quite, takes a few months to close big loans.
LOL. please see ‘Eat that’s’ post below…. from your link dufus
Asked about what kind of person can now qualify for a jumbo mortgage, Melissa Cohn, president of the Manhattan Mortgage Co. loan brokerage, said, “Someone who is God.”
weak sauce tracker….again
What?!?!? What’s a big loan to you?
we closed a $1.1mil deal in NYC in 21 days!!!
You must be referring to those who are borrowing much more than they actually have an ability to pay back
I’m glad that the tax payer funds could of such use to BoA. They’d be dead and gone without it. So what I’d like to see is an mortgage market free from our generosity. May the NAR would like to support it by buying RMBS instead of spending all their money on lobbying?
What? Pretty sure it has been paid back (or will be).
TARP money isn’t the only subsidy sustaining B of A.
Keep dreamin’ BoA hasn’t even begun to take their losses. All of the ‘Green shoots’ are smoke and mirrors in hope that joe6pack will continue to binge on credit because he thinks his job and house values are safe. A huge proportion of retirees are banking on their 401ks and home appreciation to retire on. We have a massive problem with dealing with healtcare, intrastructure and a giant wave of people wanting the SS benefits. There isn’t an easy way out of this, all we have done so far is delay it, and by delaying it we are actually setting us up for an even bigger fall.
Talk about being dead on. There will be no bottom until the federal training wheels are taken off. Meanwhile, bulls will continue to tout how things are improving while ignoring the massive subsidies that, like the bubble prices, are unsustainable.
That and the way unemployment has been dropping will surly drive up the prices. Yippie it’s 2005 all over again. Why are there so many empty stores?
From Dealeos link
Asked about what kind of person can now qualify for a jumbo mortgage, Melissa Cohn, president of the Manhattan Mortgage Co. loan brokerage, said, “Someone who is God.”
Well, there are certainly a lot of people in OC who think they are God.
Yes, and they all spend everyday right here.
So, you think you’re holier than God!
I’m sure he’s got other plans for you.
With all of the lies and deceit you have racked up in your life, you’ll be taking a one way elevator straight down!
Try not to judge William…as nasty as you have been on these pages…hello pot.
I agree dealio is a downright EVIL LIAR, trying to lead people into financial
debtocide!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bill,
This is god. I am saying you should move to Alabama. I will agree to send you to heaven when you die. Just remember, Jesus loves you !! Keep your chin up.
Is that why I see all those stores opening and high paying jobs just pouring into SoCal?
I guess National Bubbie can qualify then
It’s funny how much this weekly report makes people squirm. I remember when the DQ weekly report used to generate 100+ comments, now it’s lucky to get 35 comments from this crowd. Denial works on the upside too.
Dead count bounce. OC RE still can not escape fundamentals.
I agree. The fall numbers will be interesting to watch.
4 sure!
Ya, with all those news jobs.
If anything, the bulls are the ones squirming. June is toast, only 2900 units sold = abysmal and way below OC avg. Only peak month left is July. After that, it’s all downhill from there.
2009 = flop, even despite:
RECORD LOW RATES, RECORD LEVELS of AVAILABLE GOVT SUBSIDIES and slaes volume in OC still 45% below avg.
The season runs through November. Maybe you should take the summer off.
The season ends when the kids go back to school in September.
You’re drinking right out of the bottle again aren’t you!
Bogey,
It is going to be interesting. I was talking to a neighbor yesterday. They rent and have been looking to buy. They have lost out on many houses they bid on recently. Now they are kicking themselves and they have a changed mindset. No more lowballing etc. They just want to close a deal. Granted, I think prices here are still a little high, but I wonder if we will see more volume as we go into the 7th month of stable prices. Hopefully the “investors” who were buying in January will have made their cosmetic upgrades and will be fliping to fix another REO home. That could get us some more volume.
I don’t want prices to rise, but I would like to see people back to work from escrow agents, moving companies, to home repair people.
Nice propaganda. Oh, I have a neighbor who bought we people were thinking this same way. Now he foreclosed on, broke and will be forced to rent. The horror!
Surprised says: I was talking to a neighbor yesterday. They rent and have been looking to buy. They have lost out on many houses they bid on recently. Now they are kicking themselves and they have a changed mindset. No more lowballing etc. They just want to close a deal.
This is the exact same ‘mindset’ we saw in 2005 and 6 at the bubble peak/burst, due to peak credit and the unwinding that followed.
Fast forward to today, since we’re in the ‘bailout bubble’ now, that mindset is the sound of inevitability, as soon as the Govt is forced to unwind its enabler programs.
Too bad, lots of people are gonna get burned. Again.
Guys, my only point is that I think there may be a changed mindset that could get volumes up. My neighbor is not going out to grossly overpay. They have been very patient in waiting for prices to come down. It is just interesting to watch.
In case you have not noticed, nobody is squirming. Dealeo simply stalks this blog to offer some balance.
Dealio does not stalk,
it posesses this blog, exorcism time!!!
Mulli: Come again?
You are balance
Dealeo is a marketing gimmick
The median price, much like the inventory cannot be considered a reliable indication as to where housing is headed when we still have moratoriums (9 months) and temporary government teaser programs masking true market conditions.
We haven’t even started paying this 11+ trillion dollar bailout yet.
Anyone thinking we can just sweep this multi trillion dollar depressionary bubble under the carpet is nutz!
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/6/26/747149/-Where-Will-Rioting-Begin-in-California
Here’s just a sample of what we need to start thinking about ^
Home Median price is up because lots of the fake million dollar homes are selling for $600k or lower and it is causing the median price to increase. The price is still too high for avg. person to buy in Ca.
That’s right John!
And sales are still well under historic norms.
We’re just witnessing what’s left of the remaining bubble buyers before this thing starts to get really ugly.
The facts are all around us.
The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors warned of the danger of a “delayed” recovery in housing.
Big risk factors that could spur more foreclosures include expectations of rising unemployment and the forecast resetting of interest rates on 2.8 million subprime and Alt-A mortgages in the next two years.
“I’m worried that the investment community is a little too sanguine about how much of the housing pain is behind us and that we might be in the all-clear,” said Ronald Temple, co-director of research at Lazard Asset Management in New York.
The foreclosure rate is getting worse and will likely rise to about 4.5 percent, said Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS in Lexington, Massachusetts who closely follows housing.
“What’s driving people to leave their homes is a combination of having their house under water and then losing their job,” Newport said.
Lie.
Are you posting with disclaimers now?
It’s absolutely true. Go look for yourself on the MLS and see how many price reductions there are for the supposedly million dollar homes.
But sometimes you get the delusional or a Dealeo client that lists in the wtf range. IHB has a profile on one today. http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/
A duplex for $1M?
Dealeo: John is very close to the truth - just a bit exaggerated.
LIKE I STATED BEFORE - I predicted the median would increase and I am still RIGHT ON THE MONEY!!
The lower end segment has gotten a HUGE amount of support from moratoriums, to incentives, FHA availability and rates. The higher end (above $600K) has seen the effect of income verification and secure underwriting standards - true affordability is at play here along with a manipulation of inventory.
The median is the drain - as more lower end inventory shrinks, more higher end homes are falling in price towards the “drain” - I am not claiming they’re falling in price by huge percentages - but they most definitely are - and will continue to. I would not be surprised we see over 75% of all inventory in south county be priced at over $575K - it sure does not mean they will sell at any swift pace at those prices. Not without a corresponding increase in use of riskier loans and a decrease in underwriting standards.
In the end - bottom is not here until all temporary incentives expire, and this market sustains itself AT ALL PRICE POINTS. You would be hard pressed to argue that the $650K+ market is seeing a price sustaining sales volume.
If you stated that homes priced at or below the median have hit bottom - I would agree for now.
if you stated that the entire market hit bottom - I would call that a sales tactic and a lie - proven by my own recent purchases.
Also, above $600k is typically “move-up” buyer territory. If the majority of the sales in the low end are REO’s and short sales, where are the move-up buyers going to come from? That doesn’t even count cash-out refi’s that didn’t deplete all the equity, but enough that there wouldn’t be enough for a down payment on a higher end home. That is why that end of the market isn’t moving well.
$600k would take $120k down and have payments of about $2700/month. Following the 28% rule that would require income of $115k/year, which probably isn’t that rare in OC, but it’s above median. What’s more rare is having $120k in cash without getting that from selling a previous home. If you put down less you have a higher payment plus insurance, which means the anual income requirement goes up into territory that is rare. Also, people with incomes that high generally own already and are stuck not being able to sell there home and move up, so the cylce continues.
If the prices for the mid level homes drop, the low end will also have to drop to compete. That will mean all the people who bought in the last year with FHA loans will be negative equity and will have to stay in their houses a lot longer, which also means no move-up buyers.
Did anyone else notice how high NOD’s are right now also? Don’t know how many will eventually become REO’s, but it definitely doesn’t point toward a healthy, stable market.
Anyway, I’m sure you’ll flame for this Dealeo ;) but I’d like to hear your honest thoughts on where your data would point to the buyers in the $600k+ range are gonna come from? Care to dance?
Lingy - Dealeo nevers likes to have a discussion with an objective observer on RE - never have - never will
She chooses to stick to retorting to those that are in the 100% doom category because she knows she has a chance there to come across with her marketing tactics
The high end is not selling, the low end is semi-frozen, because there’s NO-ORGANICS sales
And foreclosures are a mess with the second mortgages and the “Line-of-credits loans.
the average “Joe” have no way to qualify, because they lost their jobs/ Low-credit-scores- and nobody have 20% to put down, neither 3%.
so all of the above is pure propaganda, from local appraisers, and banks
This has been predicted for several years now. Median home price can shift due to a change in composition, e.g. relatively more mid to high end homes are selling. The rising median actually reflects capitulation in the higher end markets which up until now have seen few sales. Calculated Risk, Piggington, Ben Jones have all called this, and predicted that media would be duped by this composition problem.
Keep your eye on the Case-Shiller numbers, that is the best measure of home price trends.
Shiller’s a crook
What about the democratic administration that is taking taxpayer money and literally giving it to a few that made bad decisions?
They aren’t playing riding hood. Over 50% of the US population would have voted against it. Yet they did it anyway.
Theft is occuring all around us.
I agree 100%
so do about 10 million other experienced RE investors
Jeff
Do you work for Steve Thomas/
Jumbo moans, yes. Jumbo loans, no. It has been a giant illusion created by human greed. Priority spending is trending away from real estate investing and getting back to living within ones means. Realtors will never stop hyping real estate as a sound investment and some people will continue to buy into it. The nations values have changed and there is no going back to the way it was.
Dilbert is bang-on today
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/dilbert-own-rent.gif
Classic!
This is great
OCR needs to report on the fact that states like California are running out of unemployment benefit money. Just wait till 2010 when the food riots start!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31565441
Jc is soooo right on the money with that comment!
RANT’S BOTTOM IS FINALLY HERE!!!
Just wait until Fall, by then the stock market will have dropped another couple of thousand and the layoffs will be taking full effect with new rounds overwhelming the last.
When the Mexican Swine Flu reasserts itself, the world economy will seize as transport is interrupted, food crops will rot on docks and untold hordes will starve worldwide.
Social Security, Medicare and all the other welfare programs will collapse as government revenue vanishes like Madoff’s billions.
The last two years of recession will be remembered as the good times in the next 10 years.
The American Welfare State is dead and rotting. Get ready for bad times.
Human sacrifices, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria! So, you’re betting this for fall? Shall we wager on that? All I need now is another story about how much better things were in the good ole days, so I can go vomit. Things are always good and bad, it all just depends on what’s happening to you at the time.
Then why are you posting here? Shouldn’t you be busy digging a shelter in the backyard and stockpiling it with food and water??
Gee, thanks for taking time out from your bitter life of paranoia to warn us! Now run outside and play for a while before the short bus stops to pick you up.
Here’s what I see as a newbie home-seeker with 200K to put down in cash. Even the crappy 3-4 bedroom single-story 30-year-old homes in the “poorer” neighborhoods of Lake Forest and MV are selling quickly. Seriously, everything that looks livable is now in “backup offers accepted” position. I guess there are a lot of little families like mine who want to get into a cute little house this year. But I am frugal and refuse to pay out the nose (i.e. anything more than we already pay for our outrageous rent, about $1800/mo) especially with our healthy down payment. I would go for anything with 4 bedrooms, grass in the backyard, and a good elementary school nearby. But I can’t find one of those to save my life. Bah. Do you have some good, clean modest neighborhoods in your cities?
LaffyTaffy
I understand what you are saying and due to the mortitorium and fed floating the RE market the reality is that you’d be buying into a distortion. You are better off with that $1800 a month ‘outrageous’ rent than throwing your money away on market that is going to depreciate once the brakes are finally taken off. Also, realize that even though it seems demand is high, the more likely scenario is that supply is artifiicially limited (i.e. less people moving due to lack of equity, less jobs growth and moritoriums on foreclosures). Wait and be patient. Don’t listen to your realtor tell you that you missed an opportunity of a life time, that’s BS. In any real market, if you can afford the median priced home then you should be able to buy at anytime. Not just some tiny window that comes up once in a lifetime.
200k down invested in a stable bond fund putting out 5% (there are lots of these) pays ~850 per month, or almost half your rent each month. Assuming you have other savings, you could be renting for free based on your investments alone. Not a bad place to be during a RE bubble.
Then consider the 10k (or more depending on your price range) in property tax that you CANNOT deduct on your taxes assuming you have AMT since you probably have a higher income. Unless you think that RE prices will suddenly pop despite rising rates, rising unemployment and declining CA incomes, and the fact that it really has not been that long since the peak of this bubble compared to other RE corrections, I would have to think that time is on your side, but just my opinion.
I am sure that if you have $200K cash in the bank, you’re smart enough NOT to listen to most of the bafoon on this blog.
Do what’s best for your family, tax situation, and long term financial gain.
Time change fast. When I submitted my offer on an REO summer last year (my primary resident now), WAMU literally kissed my a$$ when it saw $250K down payment + qualification. On REO condo units in nice part of OC, 10% down payment, and I didn’t have to competed with anyone on my offer of $150K for 3bed/2bath unit (they’re all cash flow positive rental for me now, some by $500-600, on my primary resident, the mortgage payment is almost 1/2 of rent on similar house on the street).
Nowadays, even when you submit all cash offers, chances of other all-cash offers are high. And people bid up all over the place. Frustrating, as couple of my colleagues and friend are experiencing.
Like you, my wife and I save up for 10 years, wait out. I pulled the trigger last year, you’re trying now. Most of the wacko here will keep waiting and waiting and waiting….
Average median home in Las Vegas,Nv. is 130,000. Why would average working people live where houses are 600,000.?
I don’t know. Ask the millions of working people that live around here.
Is this news created by one of the O.C realtor to pull of the legs of the dummy investor. Isnot it?
Yes, this is to pull your leg dummy.
Eat it is Lee in irvine.
Nice try. Dealeo. See we can both play that game. Ridiculous isn’t it. Btw, I don’t if you post under a hundred different names.
Bottom!!!!
…suckers
The biggest lie yet from OCR. Anything to get buyers in. The reality is that the majority of homes in SOC never really lost value for they never went up for sale. Its funny how these realtors attempt to lure the buyer through use of psycological persuasion, with many manipulating loop holes. I would say that many of those homes are worth less than the $450,000. their claiming. Lets face the fact that theres been many business closers. Many residents have flocked elsewheres where prices are less, even if its a temporary move. Investments are at their lowest, so people are spending more time at home, than the usual. I highly doubt that the greater percentage of home owners have put any big investment into their homes. So please tell me how you could be convinced that in such a short short time that Obama has been in office that, a rise in home sells has occured.
Ralf, How long has it been since supply increased. Have the lower prices resulted in people returning to California? I sure see a lot of Arizon license plates these days.
Anyhow, it is interesting to see how supply and demand plays out. That is why I like to watch this debate.
It’s summer tourist plates are prevelant.
The shadow inventory fills the dark side of the moon.