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We’re getting mixed signals on the housing market, with forecasters predicting further home-price drops at the same time that indexes show prices rebounding.
The latest: The California Association of Realtors reports today another monthly gain in the median price of an existing single-family home in May with the smallest annual decline in awhile. The report shows:
- The median house price in O.C. was $474,110 in May.
- That’s up 9.7% from April, the fourth monthly gain in the past five months.
- That’s down 17.4% from May 2008, the smallest annual decline in 14 months.
- Sales were up 17.9% from a year ago.
Statewide, the Realtors group reported a median house price of $267,570, up 4.2% from April, but down 30.4% from a year ago. The press release quotes association President James Liptak as saying:
“With affordability for first-time buyers at a record high, sales of existing, single-family homes continued to remain above the 500,000 level for the ninth consecutive month. Buyers are beginning to realize that the combination of favorable home prices, historically low mortgage rates, and first-time home buyer tax credits, may not align again for many years.”
Read the press release HERE!
More news on the housing market outlook …
- Bank says O.C. home prices to drop 19% more
- O.C. real estate enjoys rare job spurt
- Harvard: Housing recovery yet to emerge
- Chapman sees O.C. home prices up 1.6% in 2010
- Housing recovery set to begin, forecast says
- Demand for O.C. homes nears 4-year high
- Housing stats: Good news or bad?
May’s market from DataQuick …
This from the report…
“Inventory levels are well below the long-run average of seven months, which may account for the increase in median price,” added Appleton-Young. “Although the state continues to operate in a bifurcated market, improved access to lending and price adjustments have led to increased activity in the high-end segment,” she added.
So what is keeping the inventory levels low? High employment? No. Increased economic growth and jobs? No. Immigration? No.
Where’s the sustainability of the market when the fundamentals aren’t there to support it. CA is going to lose another 200K jobs this year and won’t have even a hint of economic recovery well into 2010. The fact that the market has apparently stabilized flies in the face of conventional economic theory that to support home prices certain conditions need to be met. One of those conditions is job growth, another is low foreclosure rates and the last is easy lending. We only have one of those conditions which is due to artificially low interest rates and bribes to buy over priced homes. What clear is that the RE market would be behaving more like the jumbo market if conditions were allowed to find an equilibrium on their own. What’s even more evident, is that when the Fed realizes that inflation is more of threat than high home values they will be forced to raise interest rates quickly. Those first time home buyers buying today are tomorrows underwater loanowners, anchored to their homes, unable to move up the RE ponzi scheme ladder that is OC real estate.
Blah, Blah, Blah
Rude dealiho!
Bitem Moi
I would expect nothing less from you.
OH god guess I’ll just wait it out.
The press release quotes association President James Liptak as saying:
“With affordability for first-time buyers at a record high, sales of existing, single-family homes continued to remain above the 500,000 level for the ninth consecutive month. Buyers are beginning to realize that the combination of favorable home prices, historically low mortgage rates, and first-time home buyer tax credits, may not align again for many years”.
Let’s take a look at the #s…
May sales in OC = 2600 units. SALES VOLUME IN OC STILL 45% BELOW AVG. despite all of what James Liptak says.
It looks like the April 2009 OC SFR short squeeze has happened. Now if the sellers can hold off another six months or so, there may be a nice appreciation for the year 2009.
Bottom!
darn! you beat me to it!
I now know that the bottom callers are really bottoms. They like the abuse.
Dude, you know “Bottom!” is a joke, yeah? Unless of course you’re commmenting on the shockgs & larry yuns of the world that are actually suggesting this and whom I am ridiculing…
Oh. And based on your reference, I think you should change your handled to WestHollywood guy. LOL!!!
Up, up, and away. Here we come. $600K 2012 peak is in the bag! Bottom was Jan 09. You got to be blind and dumb to look at the chart and not see the obvious bottom.
The realtors try to spin everything.
Prices aren’t rebounding when the price persq ft is still falling.
If you factor in the price per sq ft you can clearly see that prices are still going down.
The price per square foot is still falling and home prices are still falling.
You must be referring to RE on Uranius. Here on Earth it is going up!
The data shows that an overwhelmingly majority of cities throughout OC are continuing to see the price per sq ft still falling.
If you want to disagree let’s see your proof.
You don’t have proof because you’re just talking crap as usual.
Hey Bill, I didn’t know you had Real Estate on uranus.
You made the claim price per square foot is falling and home prices are falling…so lets see your proof! When you go looking, you will see it is UP, unlike your IQ after the first grade. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
So basically, you’re insinuating that you’re a moron?
99 percent of realtors give the rest a bad name.
Here’s some MLS data on average (mean) sales price / average price per square foot, etc
5/25/09 - 6/24/09 $508,798 avg / 1,744sf avg = $292 avg per sf
4/25/09 - 5/24/09 $470,297 avg / 1,639sf avg = $287 avg per sf
during both time periods above, sales price was 98% of FINAL list price. It does show that average price per sf increased 1.7% between April and May.
Now for Pending Sales (including those in backup status)
$474,991 x 98% sales price to final list price ratio = $465,491 avg price
$465,981 avg price / 1,663 avg sf = $280 avg per sf
So while avg. price per sf increased over the last 2 months, avg price per sf appears to be lower ($280 per sf vs.$292 per sf or 4% lower) based on pending sales data.
We won’t know for sure until the currently pending sales actually close escrow and sales prices are recorded.
Yes, we need lot’s of suckers to buy homes now. Who cares if unemployment goes up, who cares if interest rates go up as long as gunner can sell homes now.
One thing that you can’t measure, but is a fact is DEMAND. It is way up so a small increase in unemployment and interest rates is not enough to deter buyers and their loads of money to make a smart purchase.
We’re back to “there is lots of money in the OC”. Small increase in unemployment, did you get that one from John McCain’s campaign manager?
I got that one from the reality campaign. The reality is we are an extremely wealthy society. We also have 90% of the people gainfully employed. We also have a social culture that looks down on renters because homeownership is valued for status in this society. Most renters want to become homeowners and most homeowners would never go back to renting. You doom and gloomers always forget that fact.
Gunner says:
June 25, 2009 at 8 pm
“I got that one from the reality campaign. The reality is we are an extremely wealthy society. We also have 90% of the people gainfully employed.”
1. It takes billions of $ in loans per day to sustain the American way of life.
2. Record budget deficits means that each American’s share of the national debt Americans continues to grow.
3. 600K job losses/month — yet it takes 150K new jobs/month to keep up with population growth.
“We also have a social culture that looks down on renters because homeownership is valued for status in this society. Most renters want to become homeowners and most homeowners would never go back to renting. You doom and gloomers always forget that fact.”
Did you forget that the “homeownership at all cost” attitude helped to cause the worst financial downturn since the Great Depression? Guess what, I’m betting a record # of homeowners have given up their houses whether they like it or not in the past 2 years.
loll dufus
Demand is down ie: 2600 homes sold in May = avg sales volume/DEMAND in OC down 45%
Even with loan modifications and refinancing programs moving forward, the end of the foreclosure crisis is not around the corner, a panel of government officials and consumer advocates told real estate reporters and editors at a recent conference.
Here are some reasons why home prices have a long way to fall:
Millions badly behind on payments, but their banks will not foreclose.
The backlog of seriously delinquent mortgages, which is so far, affects about 1 million borrowers.
It just means foreclosure rates are going to keep rising,” said Patrick Newport, an economist for IHS Global Insight.
“I have even begged them for a foreclosure,” delinquent mortgage-holder Charlotte Jensen said. When she realized she couldn’t save her Glen Allen home last year, she filed for bankruptcy, packed up her family and moved out. Nearly a year later, Bank of America has yet to take back the home.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/23/AR2009062303500_pf.html?ref=patrick.net
How many thousands of people have been living in their homes without the bank foreclosing on them throughout the past 2 years?
It’s all a game the government is playing to hide the real carnage that’s about to unfold!
Now that Michael is dead, does it really matter.
children everywhere are no longer afraid.
For the record, never trust anything come out from these crooks: California Association of Realtors and National Association of Realtors
Or shady characters named Carlos
Major layoffs at Orange County companies jumped by nearly 800 in the three weeks from late May to mid-June bringing this year’s total to 10,847.
http://economy.freedomblogging.com/2009/06/25/major-oc-layoffs-near-11000/
11,000 more foreclosures coming to OC.
Yes, every single person that is laid off ends up in foreclosure…first rule at arrogant bear school.
Californians saw their incomes decline 0.8% in the first quarter, reports the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
It was the second consecutive quarter Californians saw less money in their pockets.
http://economy.freedomblogging.com/2009/06/24/california-incomes-decline-again/
Increasing layoffs and less pay means a housing recovery?
Don’t think so……….
How about this?
http://www.housingwire.com/2009/06/25/radar-logic-composite-price-index-gains-12/
Frauds and more frauds, the question is…until when with all these lies?
The country should change the laws, against these Crooks from realestate as well for those who do report such fraud.
And they would come down to earth
Jesus! How many times do we have revisit this? increase in median price doesn’t mean prices are going up, but rather an increase in sales of higher priced homes. It’s the mix, stupid!
Just like the reverse being true huh boys…somehow that flip side of the coin never quite makes it on this blog…just ask Lee.
Hey, Lee’s AWOL for a couple of days isn’t he?
Economics 101: Price per Sq. Ft. matters more than median price, for where it goes, so goes the market. And since bigger homes (4+ bedrooms) sell at a higher price than smaller homes (2-3 bedrooms), if the median price rise at the same time price per sq. ft declines means that bigger homes are selling.
I’m buying neverland for $85 / sq ft. My kid is gonna love it!!
True, median is a poor indicator in my opinion. Mean is much more precise. Been arguing that for a year at work.
I’m a new realtor and I have a client who was pre-qualified for a $500,000 home. He’s a NURSE with a very stable job, having been employed by a state hospital for over a decade, and who waited for an opportunity like this, when the prices of homes have gone done almost 50%. There are many nurses or other professionals with a stable career who are now considering to buy a house. Maybe, this is where the “rise” in price could be attributed? Just maybe. Who knows. I’m new in the field.
Dealeo,
Please stop making up stories in here.
It makes you sound like a street beggar when you have to come in here fantasizing about living the bubble all over again!
Millions of people are flat broke now and liar loans are gone forever.
It’s over O.K.?
Get a grip with reality for a change and start concentrating more on the state of your mental health and less about all of your foreclosures…………..
She has! She convinced one of her care takers at the mental hospital to buy one of her listings.
Most likely he wasn’t what you would call a real nurse, RN or LVN, but just a ‘bed pan annie’ nurses aide.
Most professionals already has a mortgage and buying their home. But these fraudulent realtors wouldn’t know that. They still have their heads stuck in the sand from way back when they were in the Head Start Programs.
Bill tell us about the Real Estate on Uranus
No visual aids please.
Check out the June 26th cartoon
http://dilbert.com/
Thanks for the steady flow of BS, OC Register. I know I can’t count on you for quality journalism, but you always seem to deliver more than enough crap! You keep me laughing and, at the same time, wondering why you are still around.
The headlines kill me.
But really I come for Gunner. The guy is a riot. I’m trying to decide if he’s just a delusional Realtor, or maybe something even slimier, like a life coach.
O.C. house prices will continue to fall thru 2012. Peak to bottom will be a minimum of 50% on average. Affordability sets the price going forward. Successful speculation in the housing market, going forward, will be very difficult and require a lot of cash.
Maybe it is just me, but isn’t May the peek buying time. The graph shows a blip last year at this time and then prices continued to fall. Wait to see sales in August -September to see if we are in an upward trend.