Chapman U. professors offer some hope for the Orange County economy and its real estate — sometime in 2010! The school’s chief economics professor, Esmael Adibi, tells ocregister.com in a podcast interview that local real estate — despite favorable supply conditions and relative affordability — won’t recover until the job market gets back in gear. And the employment picture isn’t improving anytime soon! And that reboudn will be modest,
To hear our full interview, CLICK HERE !
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Check out your blogger’s previous podcasts:
- Cities, not suburbia, best shot at full housing recovery!
- It will be a renters’ market for some time to come
- Why builders eye simpler, smaller homes
- Why you should have earthquake insurance
- ZipRealty sees possible housing bottom forming
- Renters feel cheated by financial bailouts
- PMI economist says job losses smack housing
- Century 21 CEO think West will lead housing’s recovery
- Consultant Duffy says builders must wait until 2012
- Adviser Rother says depressed home prices creates opportunity
- Trulia exec says new home information will change the game
SELLERS…. the next leg down in housing will be excruciating. Last chance to get out from under your ball & chain while the get’n is semi good.
Remember, RE agents are desperate. 3% tops for multiple is the magic number. Negotiate 1.5% for the listing agent, 1.5% for the other, should they make the sale. Or 2% if the listing agent makes the sale. PERIOD
They still don’t deserve that much but since they operate in a rigged system, you don’t have much choice. For now lollllllll.
Bogey,
you are right, RE agents are truly desperate. Dealeo is a good example of that. He can’t even collect unemployment.
Wow, just wow. You two have jumped the shark.
That really burnt them dude!! lol
I am not an agent (don’t care if you believe or not, yes I am synical too) but I work with re agents. 1/3 are the real thing and can really help out in a purchase. 1/3 are housewifes looking non-9to5 job. Then the other 1/3, which is crap. With the comments here, it seems most of you did not do your research. They are your employee, why are you not interviewing more than one??? It’s probably the way you picked your significant other, they just came along :)
How so?
Source please . .. …
That’s what we have been saying, this is going to be a dead market for years, much worse for the high end homes.
hey lansner- why dont you do an interview with moi–
after all I’ve been the one whos calls have been the
most accurate- not only that but I’m also good lookin
so my picture wont scare away your readers- lloolllll
onto more relevant topics– unemployment keeps RISING—
california sets NEW RECORD for jobless numbers BUT the
real estate market -apparently by some divine intervention-
has bottomed- its a friggin miracle
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31446512
footnote- the numbers dont even reflect the thousands
of recent grads who wont be able to find a job- yikes
rants-
You mistimed the bubble peak by 2 years by selling in 2004. Just curious, do you think you might mistime the bottom?
If rants was able to sell within 2 years of one of the biggest bubble peaks in history, that would be considered a very savvy transaction.
Pizza delivery boys like you were buying at or near the peak of the biggest bubble in history.
Who’s the stupid one?
My pick: the pizza delivery boy, who thinks he’s a broker!
Bill-
I’m not in sales of any kind. I don’t sell real estate, pizzas, or insurance.
P.S.
Did you pass the GED exam?
So you’ve been laid off at both jobs?
Yes, I have a degree.
Are you still working on that high school diploma?
“So you’ve been laid off at both jobs?”
Uhh… not quite. The mortgage industry is busier than ever. Rates are only one piece of the puzzle. Distressed assets require lots of manpower to manage.
“The mortgage industry is busier than ever”
Maybe that explains why you can spend the whole day in here, responding to my posts within minutes!
well said Bill
Savvy, or lucky? Nobody can “time” any market, real estate or stocks or whatever. Some make an educated guess and get lucky. Others don’t get lucky with their educated guesses. Some people are just stupid enough to think prices will always rise, conversely, some people are stupid enough to think prices will go down forever.
Bill, if you think selling 2 years pre-peak is savvy, you should be a BUY NOW advocate! After all the article predicts some upside but not at least until 2010. That’s only less than a year from now. Even if the market doesn’t bottom until 2011 you would still call that a savvy move based on your statement about rants 2004 transactions.
So am I hearing a “BUY NOW” recommendation?
you’re picture would scare everyone b esides all you can do is quote CNBC
wait.. wasnt it chapman who said we were good for a 2nd half recovery?
my bad. it must’ve been someplace else I was thinking of. looking back at earlier interviews, this guy has been somewhat decent in his forecasting.
flow of funds report shows credit contracting at an alarming rate-
combined with the loss of “wealth” over the past year and—–
houston weve got a problem—- look out belooooowwwww
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
california lost 60 thousand more jobs in may– thats one month–
orange county unemployment rate jumps to 8.6%—
http://economy.freedomblogging.com/2009/06/19/oc-jobless-rate-hit-86-in-may/
long beach @ 12.5 percent
LA county @ 11.6 percent
Anyone who’s ever taken basic economics knows that anything over 6% unemployment is high. How have we reached a bottom without a new creation of employment? Everything is being outsourced to India. Even Bank of America jobs. All the agents and loan officers and some brokers that were doing tons of deal per month have lost their properties and income completely. Some have had to move in with relatives. I am avoiding phone calls from ex-agents and loan officers,( and appraisers), doing multi-levels. I have one person after me trying to sell a $4,000 water machine. That’s ridiculous and desperate. Also the Acai berry thing. If I want it, I’ll buy it at the store.
Real estate is a waste of time right now. I’m just going to stand by and not waste my time working for free. And avoid people doing multi-level marketing.
Yeah Jon,
He’s got a point. I mean, he did predict that the market was falling……while the market was falling!!!! hahahahahahah How’s that for insight!!!!! What a maroooon……………
VOR - rants backs it up….
The move-up market is DEAD and will be for years. Must be extremely frustrating to be trapped.
In other news:
“Debt pushes millions below poverty line”
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/06/17/BU3C188IQO.DTL
VOR cant even spell moron- need I say more?
no you’ve said enough
I believe VOR was quoting Bugs Bunny.
eh, you got it, bub
the only thing worse than selling real estate right now would be trying to sell ad space on some doom and gloom housing bubble web site. and to the bogey’s of the world, GREAT IDEA! There are brokers out there who have been trying discount commissions for years. For some reason the public is not buying it. Agents will take every dollar that people are willing to give them, why wouldn’t they? This is what every other business does.
yeah interview rants/hwood/boogey and post his disgusting mug and pot belly for all to see.
shockg never fails to disappoint with another one of his informative posts that highlight his intellectual capabilities.
Please don’t ever stop posting here lolllll
Cheers!
oh and don’t forget the toupe and cheap plaid suit.
Since NationalBubble is psychic and can forsee the future of the housing market I’m sure he made millions buying homes in 2001 and selling them all in 2005.
The realtor down the street now serves me my coffee every morning, the same guy who was chanting “every day is a great day to buy real estate” right up until the start of 2009. He now says that he would not even touch the housing market until early 2011, and only then to look at possible rental properties. Funny how the song and dance seems to change so rapidly when one ceases being an agent.
OMG– obama and the other two stooges in charge– have come up
with yet another brilliant idea in their never ending quest to try and
manipulate home prices- and why wouldnt they- as dumb as they
are even they realize that the continuing deflation of home prices
will sink the USS DEBT-TANIC- heres their new “solution”- rumor has it that they actually consulted paris hilton for her input- she approved
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1137-The-Dumbest-Thing-Ive-Seen-Yet.html
liar- I dont know when the bottom will be- I do know -beyond the shadow of a doubt - its not now– I’d stake my life on it
You are a total loser
Great Depression Quotes 1929 vs 2008: Have We Learned Anything?
A few select quotes during the depression years of 1929 to 1931.
http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/02/great-depression-quotes-1929-vs-2008-have-we-learned-anything/
Treasury’s Paulson- subprime woes likely contained
Fri Apr 20, 2007 5:59pm BST
NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Friday the housing market correction appears to be at or near its bottom and that troubles in the subprime mortgage market will not likely spread throughout the economy.
“We’ve clearly had a big correction in the housing market. Retail housing was growing for some time at a level that was not sustainable,” Paulson said in a speech to The Committee of 100, a business group in New York promoting better Chinese relations.
“I don’t see (subprime mortgage market troubles) imposing a serious problem. I think it’s going to be largely contained,” he added.
ha! nice post.
“Until the job market gets back in gear” ? Next stop “Delusionville” ! What job market would that be ? The jobs that have been lost are not coming back, not the least of which to OC or California. The unemployment rate will get worse going forward, and that will further depress housing prices for years to come. The smart money has left the state, leaving behind a herd of deer in the headlights.
1) A deflated bubble does not re-inflate. Ask ANY economist.
2) As estimated 45 million baby-boomer homes are coming on the market in the next decade or two. Talk about a tidal wave of inventory.
3) 90% of home searches now originate on the web, without a call to an agent. They better start selling beepers or something to supplement their income.
4) Taxes of every sort will dramatically increase in the next few years, due to extravagant spending and unsustainable debt.
5) Most everything that an American can do for money, someone else in some other part of the world do for for a fraction of the price. And, they probably have a better handle on English grammar.
You don’t need a genius from Chapman to figure the outcome here.
Porsche CEO scorns board members for speaking badly of company finances
In a move to help sweep its dire financial situation under the rug, Porsche CEO Wendelin Wiedeking has scolded two company board members for speaking negatively about the company’s financial standing. Porsche is trying to keep its poor financial condition quiet as it seeks more than $2.4 billion in government loans.
Wiedeking found himself in hot water after racking up $12 billion in debt during the failed takeover of Volkswagen. Porsche currently has a $3.5 billion cash shortfall and could be on some thin ice if its government loan doesn’t come through.
Better buy one now; before all their vehicles become “Porwagens…….”
Wow, imagine that. A porsche becomes a car of the common people — a true volkswagen.
how can you tell we are no where near the OC housing bottom?
shockg is still drooling on the blog
The only real estate you guys are ever going to own is sticking to the bottom of your shoes.
Here’s a quote I found on Housingwire.com
“Increasingly, the data suggest that the bottom of housing activity occurred in January – although gains since then have been small,” PMI said in the report.
No bottom in housing until ‘after’ the bailout bubble pops. It wont be long.
Fasten your seatbelt for the next stage of this ride into…
FAILING ECONOMY 220,000 RETAIL STORES TO CLOSE 2009 !!!
see YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03dL1zIa8hg
After what happened last year - the complete fall out - any economist that thinks he can reliably predict anything should get therapy. Really. Everyone of these pontificating academics, most of which have never had any real job, should be embarrassed, but they’re not. They hide behind a holier than thou attitude that is ruining the markets Why? because other holier than thou MBA’s trot out these ‘analysts’ to use as a tool to inflate their sales. Pathetic.. and I HAVE AN MBA - - - and have seen the carnage, and now the denial,. GET A LIFE … every one of you idiots.
Where’s the Birth Certificate?
so far - my predictions are right in line. Didn’t expect the recent repeat on foreclosure moratoriums for 3 months - so that’ll put a damper on sales volume in the coming months.
Let’s see what the distressed sales percentage is in the next couple of months. With rates poised to stay above 5.4%, it will be interesting to see how this plays out to the end of the year - when the incentives expire as well.
Any reason those calling bottom never want to address the most basic facts of the current market? Oh yeah - I almost missed the reason - they could not claim a bottom with such market manipulation that is most certainly going to end.
The current median is definitely the drain price though. Buyers over the next 3 months will probably pay more for their properties than buyers will come the holiday season - as a matter of fact - absent of further government handouts that include free rent to idiots - I’d bet money on it.