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Weakest O.C. housing markets at the beach
June 18th, 2009, 10:55 am · 40 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner
$1.5 million in Surf City
Analysis of DataQuick’s May report shows beach-close communities with Orange County’s weakest housing markets …
- DataQuick identified 398 homes selling in beach cities’ ZIP codes last month, +4% from a year ago — slowest growth among my 4 Orange County slices. Median selling price by the sea? $668,500 in these 17 ZIPs, county’s highest. Last month’s median price change was -15.9% vs. a year ago — virtually the same drop as the county’s foreclosure-plagued mid-section.
- South inland ZIPs — median selling price $502,500 – had 677 sales, +12% from a year ago. In these 19 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was -5.0% vs. a year ago.
- North inland ZIPs — median selling price $509,000 – had 670 sales, +9% from a year ago. In these 23 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was -10.2% vs. a year ago.
- Mid-county ZIPs — median selling price $330,000 – had 858 sales, +44% from a year ago. In these 24 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was -16.0% vs. a year ago.
- All told, countywide sales were +18% vs. a year ago. The median selling price was -15% in the past year.
Other slices of the DataQuick report …
- SoCal home price sees first monthly jump in 22 months
- 48 O.C. ZIPs had May sales gains! Did yours?
- Back above $400,000! O.C. home price at 7-month high
- O.C. foreclosures increased in May
Elsewhere …
- Chapman sees O.C. home prices up 1.6% in 2010
- Demand for O.C. homes nears 4-year high
- Housing stats: Good news or bad?
- Housing recovery set to begin, forecast says
- Want to play hoops in your home? Only $3.8 million
- Got $33 million for discounted beach house?
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There’s very little financing outside of a govt subsidized mortgage.
Sorry … Game Over!
8)
yep, it appears that Obama has no intention to help rich losers.
can you imagine the outrage? I can *kinda* see people having a soft spot for those who dont make a ton, or are average and they want them to stay in their homes.
but when someone owns a home thats 5-10x the national median home price, I’m thinking the vast majority will just watch as they burn. no way in hell our taxes will go to help them. every publicly elected politician knows that even proposing help would be political suicide.
Some of those rich losers are my neighbors. On top of being “underwater”, the State of California is going to tax the hell out of them.
Oh, did I mention that Bush’s tax cuts are expiring next year? Get ready to pay up.
you don’t know crap about what’s available.
Haven’t I been saying this for the past year? Areas like NB and CdM are hurting big time. I see the same open houses every single weekend. It’s pathetic. It’s funny to see how desperate the realtors in NB are. I don’t blame them, I would be too if I had to waste my whole weekend waiting for somebody to show up for an open house.
Yet there are 135 deals in the works and 36 closed since June 1st.
and none of those deals are yours :-), you are at home writing comments on this blog while 3 or 4 realtors get all the deals. Life is not fair, is it?
That might say something about you as a realtor. Pretty sad, isn’t it?
You don’t know what I do or where I do it, numbskull. Still ripping off your boss, I see.
I dunno much, but if supply/demand has anything to do with home prices in newport beach, theres trouble brewing..
http://api.redfin.com/stingray/do/region-chart-small-ex/6/13193/INVENTORY.png
Wealthier sellers of can afford to hold out longer (and arguably have an increased sense of entitlement), so listing prices have been staying high while inventory doesn’t move. Eventually though, my estimate is after the summer selling season, they will lower prices when either they get tired of their properties not selling, or are forced to sell for financial reasons.
Really? People who purchased homes for $750k ten years ago are now having a tough time selling them for ~$2M? Go figure!
these are the ones I find funny. I’ve seen quite a number of 2000-2001 purchased homes in HB being listed for 2-2.5x what they bought for.
It’s the same in MV. Folks who bought in 2001 for $500k still expect to get $750k. I see a ton of homes going contingent in this price range. My household income is over $150k, have no debt and a 20% down payment but I know that a $750k purchase would kill the monthly budget for living, retirment savings and emergency fund. Do all these people have better income or are they just stretching themselves to the max? The curiousity is killing me!
no, they were stretching during the bubble days , not anymore. That’s why very few homes over 750K are selling because potential buyers realize that they can get a much nicer house for the same money a year or two front now. There are some people in OC who make a lot of money but those people are going for the 2+ mil homes.
just like our government- the posers–are broke
need proof- here ya go- the government is set to break
their week old record in treasury sales- 102 billion in
one week- the U.S. is the worlds biggest debtor nation–
no one else even comes close- if this auction flops-
and it damn well could- interest rates could spike–again–
putting another nail in the real estate bubbles coffin– this
fall is gonna be really scary for the housing market- bank on it
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31429270
omg, did you see? the 10 year bond is once again close to 4%, mortgage rates will go up in the next few days putting additional pressure on the collapsing housing market in the OC
Unless the Govt stops its own spending orgies, the TNX will continue to surge and Uncle Ben will be forced to crash the market outright to keep mortgage rates from going to 8%. Just like he did last Fall.
Thanks to tax cuts for the richest Americans since 1982 we have the real estate and other bubbles. Now we are all poorer for it. Instead of leaving money in their companies or investing in productive enterprises, the rich spent it on themselves in bidding wars on vanity CdM properties or in similar locations Meanwhile, all the productive enterprises have been shipped to China.
Man, that is some lame Marxist balony. Why not move to Cuba where the governent makes sure money is properly invested.
But isn’t that essentially true?
Bush tax cut had nothing to do with the housing bubble, stupid lending/borrowing and human nature (greed) cause all bubbles. Pyramid schemes have been around for thousands of years and they will continue.
We Have Mortgage Lift Off:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_FM71j6-VkNE/SjqV8Y1UhzI/AAAAAAAADds/MtahQpcdZws/s1600-h/10+Yr+MTG+6.18.09.jpg
can someone explain to me what I’m looking at (aside from the obvious giant spike at the very end)
is that a 10yr mortgage? or a spread of some kind?
MSNBC Video: California budget crisis worsens
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/31431372#31431372
Hasta la vista, Kalifornia…….
(The late Ken Lay’s “gift” to Kalifornia which keeps on giving)
Arnold’s Enron Secret
http://forums.signonsandiego.com/archive/index.php/t-18099.html
Arnold, Arnold, he’s our man; if he can’t “solve it,” nobody can……….!
hey coldwell– yes banker— but I thought the real estate market was
getting all better– coldwell– oh coldwell
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31431394
The houses are going up in price because of how much you can make running a grow house. Some realtors are specializing in grow houses. They know people who will set you up with all the supplies you need and show you how to grow weed. They say the price of weed is falling as so many people are growing.
Our situation in some ways is worse now than ever with very high unemployment, record defaults etc…without the stimulus 2009 would be much like 2008 or worse.
When articles like this from major instututions and those holding the paper become positive maybe the market as a whole is near the bottom.
Homeowners and prospective buyers are also being thwarted by signs that the housing market isn’t improving. U.S. home prices may fall another 14 percent before reaching a bottom as an increase in unemployment offsets lower prices, Deutsche Bank AG said in a report this week.
Further Price Declines
“Affordability is no longer the driving issue in the housing market, and we believe prices still have a ways to fall in many areas before home prices reach their trough,” Deutsche Bank analysts led by Karen Weaver wrote in the report. “The bottom is getting closer, but we are not there yet.”
The biggest price declines are likely to occur in the New York and Orange County, California, metropolitan areas, Deutsche Bank said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adWiFj4Rm1ag
I am dumbfounded at the number of listings brokers take at unrealistic listing prices.
The chasm between what sellers in the beach areas are asking and the what a willing buyer is to offer is a huge disaprity.
If brokers would be more realistic and set the listing price at a 2009 price ( i.e . that means a discount of at least 25-30% from the 2007 high water mark) their would be more activity in the upper end.
As nice as Newport Coast is track homes purchased in 2005 -2008 are worth significantly less than what they paid for them. Why is it that brokers keep listing these homes at $1,000 a square foot?
It is one thing for a home to not sell, but why take a listing and burn up the advertising dollars, your weekends and timeless hours hoping for the next greater fool to hopefully walk in.
Unless he is a cash buyer the house won’t appraise and the financing will be impossible to obtain. As the ALT A loans are unable to refinance and the defaults rise in these areas the comparable sales prices will decline accordingly.
Take a look at Lido Isle. They have had 6 closed sales since Jan 1. Only one sale over $2 million (2.2) and four at less than $1,5. Yet over 50% of listing are way above $2.3.
Look at Emerald Bay. Transactions to date have also been a virtual standstill. Newport Coast sales are predominantly condo and homes less than $1.4.
I don’t even want to discuss the Laguna folks who all think that there are unlimited buyers willing to commit $8 to $25 million for a home.
Ask Mr. McMonigle why he eliminated most of his big advertising in the Daily Pilot and elsewhere.
It is time for the brokers to talk reality to the sellers.
Brokers and agents can suggest till they are blue in the face…I for one would not take a listing from an unrealistic seller. It is a waste of time and they will fire you in the end as the home did not move due to “bad marketing” etc. No sir Mr. Homeowner: Here are the comps and you need to price below them in a downward trending market. You do not have to do this under $500K…but at the beach, you better.
There’s something that’s not being discussed and should be. We are in a process of deleveraging - which is painful. It usually leads to lower asset prices as owners sell assets to generate cash and pay down debts. As such, those in cash are rewarded with good deals…cash is king. I say usually but not always. There are times when you get punished for having cash - in periods of hyper-inflation. This occurs for two reasons - (i) when the value of banks’ assets decrease so much that every bank is insolvent awhich in turn poses systemic risks that dwarf the great depression, and (ii) the government has no choice but to do something about it by pumping in never -before-seen amounts of money into the system to artificially prop up asset values. This is what is happening now. The fed is engaging in a high stakes balancing act right now in order to prop up asset values. If it goes too far (by pumping in too much cash), hyper inflation occurs. Those “responsible” folks sitting on cash looking for great deals get screwed because their cash is worth 50% less than it used to be…..those with over-inflated asset values get rescued. Get ready….our economic troubles are not quite over. It will be an interesting ride.
I have just one question for all you “daily lifer blog guys”. If and when the OC median hits 300k, which it never will. WHAT ARE YOU GUYS GOING TO DO?????????? I have some ideas: Maybe pull some weeds in your backyard, or go for a walk and actually enjoy living in the best climate in the world, or maybe even go sit in Del Taco at 2pm on a Tuesday and stare at the walls??? Whatever it is, I hope I don’t get cornered by you at a party telling me what a great blogger you were in 2008-2009. Wow, you should be proud of what you’ve accomplished. Sometimes I read this stuff just to make me feel like I have a life. Some movie guy should make a new reality show called ” BLOGGER GUY”!!!!! It would be a huge hit. Just imagine, they could have a contest to see how many Cheetos you can eat when you’re typing away about how OC is going to tank and how happy you’ll be when families are on the streets. I have the answer to California’s financial crisis. Tax anyone who is blogging longer than 4 hours a day. Then, California would be RICH, and the Escalades with huge rims will be back on the streets. Keep Bloggin………Barnies!
You completely miss the point. You are a blogging failure.
the sheeple have no idea what still lies ahead for our
economy- its only going to get WORSE– more job losses- salary cuts-business closures and many more foreclosures–we are only in the fifth inning of a nine inning game—
disregard my warnings at your own peril dear readers
I see your warning but what’s your investment conclusion? Where are you putting your investment dollars then? Are you heavily shorting the market? Are you all cash in FDIC insured banks?
being a bear, i feel rather bullish considering rants said we’re already in the 5th inning
I toured the bankrupt properties of a builder in the Richmond, Virginia
area this week. They are hopeless, at least to me. A dozen or so homes built, a huge pile of dirt with paved streets and 30 or 40 homes
to go. Hopeless because I’d have to pour in my own capital to complete the project and no one will buy it if I do.
There is no money to be made in residential real estate. None.
We are headed for a real gut check. I’m going to save every penny I have and hope I live long enough to get through it. Anyone who buys property today will regret it tomorrow.
Housing is no longer a passive investment, its time to earn it the old fashion way, inheritance.
The second wave of foreclosures has not even hit yet. There are $4 billion option pay mortgages resetting from March 2010 to a peak of $14 billion in September 2011. This is going to get much worse. http://loanmodificationandforeclosures.blogspot.com/
The luxury home market mess we experiencing in Coastal South Orange County was by all means a predictable situation. I wrote several articles dating back to 2006 that the easy money with “option pay adjustable loans” that required no income or asset documentation would ultimately default. Loans were made to people that just could not afford the home if prices were to drop or if chronic refinancing became unavailable. As soon as Jumbo Loans became unavailable the party came to a screeching halt. I now find myself modifying these “pay option mortgage” What I see and hear on a daily basis is shocking to say the least. However to my amazement banks are modifying these loans, for some with terms that are better than when they first took out the loan. Not everyone will get a modification, however they are working for some homeowners. I guess my biggest question is why the banks just do not reach out to homeowners quicker and modify these notes. They make it difficult and most people just give up. The high end luxury home market is a complete mess and it’s going to get worse. Much worse! My feeling is that prices will continue to drop on luxury homes. It’s a predictable time bomb. Reset dates indicate as much as 70% of “Pay Option” ARM loans may default over the next three years. Many home owners are now defaulting on the teaser rates indicating the inevitable when these
loans reset. There has been so much focus in the media about all the bail outs for homeowners in default. However little or no attention is given for those in South Orange County who hold a “Jumbo Loan” They wont qualify for any of the programs that have been publicized. They are in a sense backed into a corner. It would be nice to see a hard hitting article addressing this segment of the market. Something needs to be written to humanize the whole thing. Just because you have a home that happens to be considered a “ luxury home” does not mean you are not feeling the pain that everyone else is.
http://loanmodificationandforeclosures.blogspot.com/
Don’t all of the “rich” people live at the beach? Why then are the beach markets taking such a hit since only “rich” people would buy from “rich” sellers to perpetuate bubble fraud? Oh, forgot, funny money gone…even for “rich” people.