| Job slice | Last mo. | Vs. ‘08 | Vs. ‘08 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | 78,200 | -14,000 | -15.2% |
| • Construct buildings | 18,900 | -2,700 | -12.5% |
| • Heavy construction | 7,400 | -200 | -2.6% |
| • Specialty trades | 51,900 | -11,100 | -17.6% |
| Lending activities | 31,300 | -3,700 | -10.6% |
| • Bank lending | 17,900 | -1,400 | -7.3% |
| • Non-bank lending | 8,800 | -2,600 | -22.8% |
| • Lending support | 4,600 | +300 | +7.0% |
| Other finance | 10,200 | -500 | -4.7% |
| Real estate/leasing | 36,000 | -1,500 | -4.0% |
| • Real estate | 31,100 | +100 | +0.3% |
| • Leasing | 4,900 | -1,600 | -24.6% |
| Bldg. services | 31,100 | -1,400 | -4.3% |
| Building supply | 9,900 | -1,500 | -13.2% |
| Farm | 5,600 | -900 | -13.8% |
| All real-estate related | 202,300 | -23,500 | -10.4% |
| All other O.C. jobs | 1,230,300 | -50,000 | -3.9% |
| All O.C. jobs | 1,432,600 | -73,500 | -4.9% |
Orange County building industry has lost 32,300 construction jobs from the September 2007 peak — or 29%. The last time there were this few construction jobs in the country? May 2002.
And we’re not alone: Statewide, the construction-job loss is 33% off its peak.
These nuggets are some of the latest economic pain summed up in the April jobs report from the state Employment Development Dept. which found that overall Orange County jobs were back down at a level last seen five years ago.
In the past year, local real estate and finance bosses have axed 23,500 positions. One scary EDD stat: Non-real estate bosses in Orange County have cut 50,000 jobs in the past year as the economic slump grows well outside its real estate roots.
Other news: Countywide Zippy analysis …
- Where are the zippiest markets?
- What’s the weakest home market?
- Who is up? Down?
- Zip is north, south or at the beach?
- Lansner analysis
- Full 83-ZIP rankings
Luxury home news …
This accounts for only the documented workers. How about numbers for the undocumented?
With the S&Ps/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showing more horrible numbers, we can only expect more layoffs.
Maybe this is why. Didn’t Gunner say home prices bottomed in Jan? Then why is prices falling at record pace?
Home prices plunge almost 20%
“The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price index, a bellwether of real-estate market direction, plunged a record 19.1% during the quarter compared with the first three months of 2008. That followed an 18.2% drop last quarter.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-prices-plunge-almost-cnnm-15344681.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
Mr dip–home prices have not fallen 20% since the RE bottom in January 09. I think you forgot your brain pills this morning. Home prices have fallen since last year this time…hence the bottom in January.
We need to go back to having slow-growth initiatives. Steady growth, not a bubble next time. I can tell you this much, I seen quadruple amount of day laborer’s hanging out at Home Depot’s. Please, everyone: mow your own lawn’s, wash your own car’s, and clean your own home’s. That’s one way to curb the illegal immigration problem.
Shouldn’t the allotment of 10K available tax credit be about done?
Since sales volume in OC is still 50% below avg, there are no move-up buyers in sight and the % of organic sales has not increased in 18 months, it is evident the subsidy is a flop = all bottom-talk is steeped in delusion.
Case Shiller has some nifty graphing tools, but the data are a little confusing. One thing that is crystal clear from the graphs, is that the vast majortity of the (rise and) fall has been in the “low tier”. Over the past 10 years (unfortunately the graphs end in 2008):
Low tier high at 340, Low tier low at 290 (-50 points)
Mid tier high at 280, mid tier low at 240 (-40 points)
High tier high at 230, high tier low at 220 (-10 points)
This part is facsinating and completely supports my past arguments that the low tier appreciated more than the high tier. This also handily explains why this index is, like all others, flawed. There is far more activity in the low end (sales up 400% in Anaheim) that skews the entire index. They have not found a way to undo this influence because they do not balance sales out by city within an MSA.
Linky:
http://www.macromarkets.com/csi_housing/
Looks like all real estate related OC jobs were off 23,500 during April 2009 .. as compared to April 2008. Is that the correct reading of the stat?
All I can say is look at the NASDAQ if you want to see what RE is going to be like, this is just the start of RE related jobs.
Yes tracker, all indices are flawed to some extent. What is relevant with CSI… it is recognized by the media as the industry standard of measurement. And, when the industry standard of measurement reports a Q109, 19% decline YoY in home values, prospective homebuyers will stay sidelined en masse.
For example: NO MOVE-UP BUYERS IN SIGHT AND THE % OF ORGANIC SALES HAS NOT INCREASED IN 18 MONTHS
Lastly: avg sales volume in OC still down 50%
Cheers
blogger- dealtracker wants to know if you can have more posts
that deal with the many benefits of option arm mortgages
so she can woo us with her expertise on the only subject she
actually knows anything about
the government succeeded in driving up the stock market today
by telling us that the “consumer confidence index soared
last month”– yes its true dear readers- consumers are just thrilled
that their home values have PLUNGED another 19% in the
first quarter and gas prices are heading back up– way up-
yep thats two really good reasons for the consumer to get confident
alright— people would be well advised to never ever believe anything that comes out of the governments mouth—
presidential trivia–
kennedy was the only president to get a lap dance in the oval office
Maybe you or mav can explain how gas prices can rise during a deflationary death spiral… It must be a new paradigm right RANTS??
Here’s a very unscientific look at the rise and fall in Irvine versus Santa Ana. Unfortunately, I only have average prices and average cost per square foot, not median, but it still tells the tale. This compares a “high tier” city and a “low tier” city, but it still doesn’t undo the influence of a “high tier” property from a “low tier” property by city, because the low end in any city still has more volume.
Every one of these indices is tainted. The only true picture is a look at a certain size house in a certain city, exactly what I have been posting examples of in the past few weeks. If you recall, most had very little drop in the past 12 months.
Irvine April 2000
Average price = $307,747
Average price per square foot = $169.43
Irvine April 2006
Average price = $777,763
Average price per square foot = $427.82
Irvine April 2009
Average price = $655,462
Average price per square foot = $332.91
Irvine’s average home price in 2006 was 153% higher than its 2000 price
Irvine’s average price per square foot in 2006 was 153% higher than its 2000 price
Irvine’s average home price in 2009 was 16% lower than its 2006 price
Irvine’s average price per square foot in 2009 was 22% lower than its 2006 price
Santa Ana April 2000
Average price = $165,373
Average price per square foot = $118.10
Santa Ana April 2006
Average price = $536,134
Average price per square foot = $406.85
Santa Ana April 2009
Average price = $213,568
Average price per square foot = $179.38
Santa Ana’s average home price in 2006 was 224% higher than its 2000 price
Santa Ana’s average price per square foot in 2006 was 244% higher than its 2000 price
Santa Ana’s average home price in 2009 was 60% lower than its 2006 price
Santa Ana’s average price per square foot in 2009 was 56% lower than its 2006 price
Santa Ana clearly had a bigger rise and is having a much bigger fall. The CS index is using paired sales from both, but they have more transactions to include in Santa Ana than they do in Irvine. In April, 2009, Santa Ana had 273 sales and Irvine had only 138, roughly half the volume. It’s also interesting that Santa Ana’s price per square foot in 2006 ($406.85) was 95% of Irvine’s price per square foot in 2006 ($427.82). Homes in Santa Ana are roughly 55 years old and cheaply built, while homes in Irvine are lucky to be 30 years old and are far better built (and that doesn’t even count the difference in the quality of those two cities). None of these nuances are captured by the CS index, or any other index for that matter.
Yeah sure rants, I know nothing and you know everything.
Oh are times a change’n…
Those who think of housing as an investment are now finding out the reality, housing is more of a consumption item than an investment.
Bogey–Wrong!…again your short sighted view prevented you from seeing the fact that over the long term housing is a great hedge against inflation. Far better than renting.
was it dealtracker or shockg that called the housing bottom in january
for tenth time- I just cant keep track of all their wrong calls- good news
is they now qualify to give out financial opinions on cnbc- along with
jim “did I say that” cramer–
the chickens are in their final stages of preparation –
-
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2009/05/26.html
Yet even the median is the same as last November.
The RE bottom was Jan 09….learn it, live it, love it…if you bought at that time!
So let’s use the ratio of Irvine/Santa Ana price per square foot in 2000 as the bench mark for where the market is going to go. In 2000, that ratio was 1.4, now it is 1.8. So, Irvine will fall another 22% before coming into line with the 2000 ratio if we believe that Santa Ana has bottomed. If you take into account that unemployment is up, credit is tight and budgets are going to be slashed city, county and state wide that ratio will probably be even lower. For the sake of argument and discounting the depression that CA is in, say Santa manages to appreciate and rents go up etc, then maybe another 15% decline is “in the bag”. So, we’ll be at $282/sqft or about $560 as the average price.
Keep spinning!
That depends on what you think the right premium for Irvine is. Right now it is 85% and then it was 43%. Which is right? You can save 85% over Irvine right now. Will you do it?
That was not right. You can save 53% by choosing Santa Ana, yet few will who want Irvine will make that choice.
It is too wide a margin and sales are still low for many parts of Irvine and South OC due to high listing prices and lack of qualified buyers. So, there’s only two things that can happen (since interest rates are already ridiculously low), either incomes go up or prices come down. I’m betting quite confidently that it’s the the latter.
The mid- to upper-end housing market is sitting on the exact precipice that the lower-end market was sitting on in early 2008
Mortgage Modifying Fails to Halt Defaults
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124330158365953109.html
The Fitch report also raised questions about whether a decrease in a home-loan amount, known as principal reductions, is an optimal loan modification. Some mortgage-loan experts believe that the best way to help borrowers is to reduce the principal amount owed. The Fitch report found that loans that had decreased principal amounts, including by more than 20%, were still redefaulting in a range of 30% to 40% after 12 months.
Melody, do you ever read what you post? What you just put up was a bunch of hooey.
“Modified-Mortgage Defaults May Reach 75%, Fitch Says”
“Between 65 percent and 75 percent of U.S. home loans that are reworked to avert foreclosures may end up defaulting again after 12 months, Fitch Ratings said.
The projection is based in part on “shrinking disposable income, escalating job losses and possibly some deceptive practices on the part of the borrowers themselves,” the New York-based ratings company said in a statement today…..
“More than 1.6 million mortgages have been modified since 2007, according to Hope Now, a coalition of mortgage companies in Washington. Between 41 percent and 46 percent of those loans may relapse, according to Office of Thrift Supervision data.”
“It “could take months” for Fitch to “fully” incorporate modification trends in ratings, it said. Because the Obama administration’s guidelines, which offer government subsidies to lenders, servicers and borrows if followed to rework loans, are “only now being implemented, identification of any impact they may have on re-default rates will also be delayed,” Fitch said.”
Wow, that sounds exactly like your story, Mel. Loans “may” re-default, but nobody knows because the data aren’t available. I would file this under “baseless, useless garbage that will be proven wrong in due time” except that the confirmation of 1.6 modified mortgages (versus “one”) is too good to pass up.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601208&sid=ac95YOqOkDdM