Orange County Register

Boy,

When it rains, it pours for the bears !!!

Where is Bill, Lee, rants, bloodinskirt, etc…….?

Lee, charts please (the one with your predictions) :)

The Money Pit says:

Prices in the OC are still too high by 30%. 300 a square foot is just not reasonable for $50 a square foot in construction. What are you getting? And please don’t say “the weather.”

Dealtracker says:

April 20, 2009 at 7 am

Fifty dollars a foot? Lie. Does your $50 a foot also include land?

The Money Pit says:

I do note that over a million dollars is still in the deep freeze.

lee in irvine says:

Notice how Steve doesn’t mention the fact that the “stimulus package” doesn’t do anything for home buyers who require a nonconforming mortgage. And since most single family houses listed south of Jamboree require a nonconforming mortgage, that puts The OC in a continued death spiral.

Sure, condos and small houses are selling, but any seller with a 2500+ sq ft Laguna Niguel/Irvine home is facing real challenges … with greater incentive to drop the price.

Crystal Balls says:

April 20, 2009 at 7 am

I’m refinancing a jumbo at 4.75, with 3/8ths of a point. Not too bad, huh?

Shane says:

The Jumbo rates are around 5.75%. Much lower than 8% earlier this year !

No matter how you cut it, the party is over for the bears !!

Looking back, my prediction was right at the darkest moment of the downturn in December, when everybody laughed at it when I called the Spring 2009 the bottom for OC median price !!

Calm Down says:

He He He poor bears. Hey Rants, pull out some of those obscure articles about the Japanese economy.

Tom says:

April 20, 2009 at 8 am

you never answered about the question on employment, I’ll take that as jobs and housing prices are not related?

Kung Pao Chicken says:

The Economy is still in the dumper - with out jobs there is no buyers- this article is moot.

ohhh_ninja_pulease! says:

If I don’t confront these lies it will appear as if I’m so dumb that I believe what is being said here.

OC Register let me disabuse you of the notion that your readers don’t know the time of day and that you can just publish anything that pays the bills and it doesn’t really matter.

Are commercially viable lies are as good as truth if lies keep the presses rolling and paychecks cashing? But it must be embarrassing to those with journalistic ethics.

Journalism died right here. The only thing that matters is the advertising money OC Register gets from the real estate hawkers. Somewhere there’s a working non-managerial reporter that has a hard time sleeping with knowledge of the big secret here. –but he’s stuck working for these shameless suits because he’s paying a bad mortgage on a house that he can’t afford to get rid of. de facto slavery: it’s as widespread as it is ugly.

More relevant to the housing market:
Nationally banks own 600,000 REOs that are held back from the market. It’s called the “Shadow Inventory.” There are 80,000 of these in California. You can bet about 40,000 of these are in southern California. Obviously banks are holding back supply to see if they can stabilize pricing. They can’t afford to do this forever; it’s a desperate tactic on their part..

Many Pit said it and it’s true; prices are nowhere near bottom. The devastation from the last round of creative financing has not even begun to play out yet.

All the federal government can do is to make this housing price correction take a longer time to happen. They can’t stop anything. People who have jobs and make paychecks have to be able to afford a house using loans that banks are not going to be able to get off their books and seeing no consequences from a doomed borrower.

Go crawl back under your rock you OCR shills! realtards! banksters! You are all a bunch of shmucks! Your readers are laughing at you and shaking their heads and leaving for more enlightened reading. And stop playing innocent as if you don’t know the wrong you are doing here.

NationalBubble.com says:

“Can this be the stimulus package at work? Are the lower interest rates working? Could the recent uptick be attributed to pent up demand? ”

Could this be another Realtor trying to suck people into buying homes so he can keep making money in commissions?

That is the real question

notbuyingit says:

Did anybody read the article in the Register yesterday that had national economists predicting that OC prices would drop 20% in the next year???

republicans are TRAITORS says:

Deal Tracker,
Are you posting under Calm Down, now?

5 minutes apart and same use of punctuation. Dealtracker, your deception is typical of your real estate industry. Try being honest once, it won’t kill you.

Dealtracker says:

April 20, 2009 at 8 am

That’s funny, the punctuation is completely different. You fools lie so much you confuse yourselves! It’s not working on anyone else, thankfully.
- NationalBubble.com says:
  
  April 20, 2009 at 10 am
  
  Dealtracker,
  
  Do you actually have a life?

Tom says:

Do you think Dealameal is also Kevin Tran?

sunnsea says:

According to RealtyTrac and Zillow the number of foreclosures in Costa Mesa has dropped considerably over the past 2 months, prices seem to be firming, at least for now. But there could be another leg down as higher unemployment continues to kick in..or there could be just more Chinese buyers coming over and buying an anchor house for their kids to live in while they attend UCI. After all they have the money to pay 100% cash and we don’t. This bank stuff doesn’t matter to them, they never trust banks and for good reason. It’s a Confucian thing.

OhhNinjaPuhlease says:

If no one confronts these lies it will appear as if I’m so dumb that readers believe what is being said here.

OC Register let me disabuse you of the notion that your readers don’t know the time of day and that you can just publish anything that pays the bills and it doesn’t really matter.

Are commercially viable lies are as good as truth if lies keep the presses rolling and paychecks cashing? But it must be embarrassing to those with journalistic ethics.

Journalism died right here. The only thing that matters is the advertising money OC Register gets from the real estate hawkers. Somewhere there’s a working non-managerial reporter that has a hard time sleeping with knowledge of the big secret here. –but he’s stuck working for these shameless suits because he’s paying a bad mortgage on a house that he can’t afford to get rid of. de facto slavery: it’s as widespread as it is ugly.

More relevant to the housing market:
Nationally banks own 600,000 REOs that are held back from the market. It’s called the “Shadow Inventory.” There are 80,000 of these in California. You can bet about 40,000 of these are in southern California. Obviously banks are holding back supply to see if they can stabilize pricing. They can’t afford to do this forever; it’s a desperate tactic on their part..

Many Pit said it and it’s true; prices are nowhere near bottom. The devastation from the last round of creative financing has not even begun to play out yet.

All the federal government can do is to make this housing price correction take a longer time to happen. They can’t stop anything. People who have jobs and make paychecks have to be able to afford a house using loans that banks are not going to be able to get off their books and seeing no consequences from a doomed borrower.

Go crawl back under your rock you OCR shills! realtards! banksters! You are all a bunch of shmucks! Your readers are laughing at you and shaking their heads and leaving for more enlightened reading. The truth is available have you not heard? So stop playing innocent as if you don’t know the wrong you are trying to do here.

Dealtracker says:

April 20, 2009 at 8 am

Truth hurts.

mav says:

There seems to be a new bubble forming in bull posting on this blog.

This is when the cows get slaughtered, before the capitulation over the next 3 years.

…….. even a 5th grader understands this, at this point….. so why even try to stop the cows grazing in the pasture…

“obscure japan article”….. puhleaze, we are way past that now… unemployment, income deflation and no savings to save the cows…

Elijah says:

hahaha
Welcome to the Rich People Game !
Obama is spending money too much. What we see is just a beginning? The money Obama spend last couple months will take 2 Generation to pay-off the debt.
Welcome to the real reality game and WAKE UP people.
We and our next 2 generations will have to pay for what Obama spend today?
Do the math and you will see.

awgee says:

“Demand for OC homes back at 2005 levels”

That may be. Who am I to argue?

And what happened to the housing market in 2005 with all that demand? It peaked. Yup, sales and prices peaked. Sales declined and prices started declining soon thereafter.

Now it is sales and demand that are peaking again; without the pricing power. And as demand and sales drop off again, prices will decline even more.

People’s memories are so short.

Jules says:

What I’d like to see is are updated and realistic statistics on income levels. From there, everyone should take out their calculcators and calculate what the average home should be. It should be no higher than the value that aligns with the average income level. I say ignore the statistics and let’s use our knowledge and common sense. If someone doesn’t know math, maybe they should hire an account.

Just a thought…

hwood says:

TO AWGEE
YOU ARE RIGHT ON WITH UR STATEMENT

LETS GO BACK TO 2005 AND SEE HOW THOSE PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT THAN ARE DOING .. I WONDER IF ANY ARE UPSIDE DOWN OR FORECLOSED ON….LOLL
JUST BECAUSE SOMETHING GOES BACK TO WHAT U CONSIDER GOOD DOESNT MEAN A THING. PLENTY PEOPLE BOUGHT WHEN VOLUME WAS LIKE THIS AND GUESS WHAT THEY OWE MORE ON THEIR HOUSE NOW THAN WHEN THEY PURCHASED IT.THERE WAS DUMB BUYERS THAN AND THERE ARE STILL DUMBIES OUT THERE NOW..
LET IT FALL LET IT FALL…..
DEALBREAKER GET A JOB……

bpsqwerty says:

lolz @ spring bump

shockg says:

“Go crawl back under your rock you OCR shills! realtards! banksters! You are all a bunch of shmucks! Your readers are laughing at you and shaking their heads and leaving for more enlightened reading. The truth is available have you not heard? So stop playing innocent as if you don’t know the wrong you are trying to do here.”

Jon, Look up this clowns IP address and ban him. You shouldn’t allow it to disgrace the OCR like that. Get rid of the clowns.

Dealtracker says:

Ah, but it’s far more than a spring bump, it’s a third higher than the spring bump of last year, and the year before that, and the year before that.

rants says:

2005- ah yes- we remember it like it was yesterday- the OC

hwood says:

SCHOCK(THE MONKEY)G
THE HEAD CLOWN MASTER
TAKE A BOW BOZO!!!!!!!

hwood says:

DEAL BREAKER
THE ONLY BUMP OUT THERE IS THE ONE ON UR HEAD…

bpsqwerty says:

also has the signs of a dead cat bounce

Eat it in the OC says:

Yes, yes, it all looks so wonderful. Birds are chirping, the commish is rolling in. But what’s this? All the sales are in the under 500K (70%)? Wait that can’t be right. That would means that people are buying homes they can afford which would mean that prices still have to come down. Also, looks like every buyer is piling onto the foreclosures and we know what the does to a neighborhood comp. And I am assuming that all the RE shills will be telling their sellers that if they want a piece of the action they’d better price in the selling range (i.e. below $500K).

Crystal Balls says:

April 20, 2009 at 10 am

Eat it — Time on the market is going down for the middle range of the market as well.
Hwood, you and Rants should mate for the sake of science. We are all waiting to know what happens when a donkey mates a pig.
- Eat it in the OC says:
  
  April 20, 2009 at 11 am
  
  For your sake, I hope so. Good luck on winning the “find a dupe” lottery of high end home sales.

King says:

This number of sales data is not very useful. It tells us nothing about how it’s correlates with prices (perhaps intentionally). I find his analysis very sophomoric. At least dig in a little and let’s look at those sales numbers.

How many are short sales?
How many are REO?
How many are organic sales (owner to seller) without the banks involvement?

This detail would give us a better sense of the health of the market. And, it would give us a better sense of how these sales figures will actually affect values.

This Steve Thomas guy is quit un-impressive….

Dealtracker says:

April 20, 2009 at 11 am

He offers every last one of these stats, it’s lansner who edits them down. Nice try, but this guy has a proven track record.
- King says:
  
  April 20, 2009 at 2 pm
  
  Please do tell. What’s his education level? Because the analytical component that gets corresponded via the OCR makes him look pretty unsophisticated.
  
  Do you work for him?
  - ReloMan says:
    
    April 20, 2009 at 5 pm
    
    According to LinkedIn
    
    University of California BA, Quantitative Economics 1987 – 1991

rants says:

WHOOPS- as I was saying- 2005 I remember it like it was yesterday-
the OC register was running front page headlines like this–
ANOTHER NEW PRICE RECORD FOR HOMES- and running articles
by GARY WATTS who predicted 18% yearly increases for
ever- lloollll– fast forward to todays register and its de javu
all over again- imagine what realtards are telling people now–
oh my god this is the ultimate buyers market- its never been a
better time to buy a house- prices are gonna take off like its 1999—
dont get left behind– of course some sheep are gonna follow their
“professional” advice– dont be fooled dear readers– this still has
years to play out- we have never been faced with the type of problems
we have now– never– the realtards live in their own little world
without a clue as to whats actually transpiring in the big picture–
they sell houses for a living- what do you expect them to say?
–
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/971-Feds-Kohn-Gets-Skewered;-Press-Ignores-It.html

hwood says:

Crystal Balls says:
April 20, 2009 at 10:20 am

Eat it — Time on the market is going down for the middle range of the market as well.
Hwood, you and Rants should mate for the sake of science. We are all waiting to know what happens when a donkey mates a pig.
CRYSTAL(BROKEN)BALLS
YOU ARE IN LUCK THEY HAVE DONE SUCH A MATING PIG AND DONKEY…. IF U WANT TO SEE WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE… HERE IS WHAT U HAVE TO DO… SHHHHH BE VERY QUIET I DONT WANT ANYONE ELSE TO KNOW….OK NOW RUN OVER TO THE BIGGEST MIRROR .. NOW LOOK!!! SEE THERE IT IS…..LOLLLLL

Crystal Balls says:

April 20, 2009 at 10 am

That’s really clever, hwood. What’s next: “I’m rubber, you’re glue . . . ” or “Takes on to know one”?
- sharpster says:
  
  April 20, 2009 at 11 am
  
  Why can’t that idiot rantz stick to one moniker, instead of switching to HWOOD?

snarky says:

First-time claims also have skyrocketed from more than 219,000 in March 2008 to nearly 490,000 last month. The all-time high was in January, when EDD says it processed 525,000 initial claims.

Did anyone else see this quote in todays OCR! Wow are am sure glad housing is back to normal levels because with unemployment at 9.5% and rising it looks like a total blood bath to me.

BOGEY says:

King,

the banks and CAR do not want anyone to know the specifics re: organic sales etc. because the release of such data will disrupt the ‘low inventory’ ..’market is stabilizing’ marketing campaign in play. Those in the know have not fallen for such an amateur-hour type ruse and in due time, it’s going to fall flat on its face.

Whoever is running CAR’s marketing dept is a rookie and should be fired.

spinoc says:

Once again, Lansner is carry the water for the real estate hacks. Pay no attention to DealHacker and his alter egos. If the market were so good, he (they) would have no time to post on forums all day.

hwood says:

MIRROR MIRROR ON THE WALL WHOS THE GOOFIEST OF THEM ALL……
WELL LET ME SHOW YOU
CRYSTAL(BROKEN)BALLS
SCHOCK(THE MONKEY AGAIN)G
SHARP(I CAUGHT ANOTHER SHARP KNIFE)STER
UNTRUTHI
DEAL(BREAKER)
CALM(I TAKE DOPE TO STAY)DOWN
AND SO MANY MORE….LOLLLLLL

Bill says:

Financials are down 20% today because the bad loan default rate is getting out of control.

Even debtracker should be able to figure that out!

Much more pain to come!

Mick says:

HWOOD IS REALLY GOOD AT POINTING AT OTHER’S FAULTS. OF COURSE HE HAS NONE. HE’S A KNOW-IT-ALL, AFTER ALL!! ”

And to quote an online dork “LOLLLLL LOLLLL LOL LOL LOLLLLLLLLLL LOLLLL”

never say never says:

A subsidized market is very different than a normal market, take it away and we take a few steps backwards.

Once the incentives are gone and rates creep back up, we could find ourselves at the same cross road the market was at last year.

Is it a good time to buy now, for some Yes, will there be great opportunities later Yes.

sean hanitty says:

joe the plumber for president.

Tank says:

April 20, 2009 at 12 pm

I know exactly what will settle the argument between the bears and dealtracker & co. forever.

How about everyone stops talking about what they think and they actually act upon their recommendations?

Bears: This means that you stand by your declining predictions and wait on buying a home until later.

Dealtracker & Co: Since you believe this is the bottom and appreciation we’ll be at 2005 pricing soon, actually invest in real estate ala 2005 style. Re-finance to purchase another home. Open up HELOC’s & use variable rate mortgages to leverage yourself to the brim because the gravy train is leaving the station.

Then, let’s all come back in two years and see who fared better. Wouldn’t that settle all this stupid rhetoric?

dapper1 says:

April 21, 2009 at 8 am

Bravo Tank…

Gunner… has stated repeatedly that he won’t buy now (doesn’t have the means)
.
DT can’t buy because he/she isn’t making any money in the RE bus, that’s why the push for us to buy.
.
I’ll just keep waiting. Like most smart people will do.

sowhat says says:

April 20, 2009 at 12 pm

I read thru the posts and to get back to the headline, what’s so great with the demand being back at 2005…that demand caused this financial failure 1-2 years later…

oh by the way, I am meteorologist and the sky is falling,,,,if you believe that, you’ll believe the headline……

OC Bandito says:

April 20, 2009 at 12 pm

With regards to the Ninja’s comments on shadow inventory. I know a few people in the industry who work with REOs. These people have confirmed that the banks have been holding back a significant amount of inventory. This holding pattern increased at the end of the summer of 2008 and hasn’t moved much since.
Ultimately, this results in a slow downward spiral versus a cathartic jolt that would have happened had thousand of REOs been dumped on the market. It seems to me to be a good news/bad news situation and that depends upon your time horizon.
Personally I would hate to HAVE TO BUY right now, which might be the case for some people who are being relocated to this area.

Dealtracker says:

April 20, 2009 at 2 pm

This is a big lie. There were around 17k foreclosures since 2007 and over 12,000 of them can be found on MLS. The other 5k were either sold elsewhere or are in the NORMAL turn times for REOs.

BOGEY says:

RE SHILLS = RHETORIC

The following is anything but rhetoric…..

April 20 (Bloomberg) — The index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell more than forecast in March, signaling what may be the longest recession in the postwar era will extend into the second half of the year.

The Conference Board’s gauge, which points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months, fell 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent drop in February. The gauge hasn’t risen since June.

Rising unemployment and tight credit mean recent gains in consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, will probably not be sustained. Stocks dropped as a report by Bank of America Corp. raised concern Americans will keep falling behind on loan payments.

Crystal Balls says:

I frankly can’t believe how foolish and simplistic many of you bears are in your thinking. The fact that sales levels are at 2005 isn’t evidence we are about to have further similar declines that followed 2005. As prices go down, volume has picked up. That’s the way markets work. Higher sales volume typically leads to higher prices, not lower prices. Awgee draws this really brainless conclusion and idiots like hwood and rants just jump in to say “Amen” while at the same time calling everyone else out as “idiots.” If we cut current prices to 1998 levels (where some dreamers on here think we are going), sales would shoot through the roof. Yet you fools seem to think that sales increase would be evidence that the market should drop another 200 percent to 1990 levels. The higher sales levels don’t prove we have hit bottom, but stop making this clownishly foolish argument that increased sales is proof that the market will still go down. It just proves that you reach the same conclusion no matter what the evidence demonstrates.

Beachchic says:

April 20, 2009 at 1 pm

Look at the bigger picture…the macroeconomic picture! What about the unemployment rate and the economy in general? Even lower prices are yet to come.

BOGEY says:

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2009/04/20/business/z78833e3c672f2d568825759a006c9957.txt

Check out this deal of the week crystal ballz shill

Housing always goes up, LOLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bank eats 815K,

November 2006: $1,650,000

February 2009: $805,000

Liar Loan says:

The monthly cost of homeownership is close to rental parity due to Federal Reserve (i.e. China & Saudi Arabia) purchases of Fannie/Freddie MBS. This is artificially depressing mortgage rates just below 5% for quality borrowers. Obviously this is stimulating demand.
.
My question is what happens when rates go from 5% to 6%? This would result in at least a 10% payment increase for most buyers. So in order to reach the same rental parity that we have today, prices would need to drop approximately 10%.

Liar Loan says: