O.C. prognosticator defaults on rental house

March 25th, 2009, 8:08 pm · 104 Comments · posted by Jeff Collins

Watts

(Update: Entry revised July 6 to clarify or correct reporting about Watts’ forecasts for 2007-08.)

In July 2005, while predicting a 15% gain in Orange County home prices, real estate prognosticator Gary Watts put about $77,000 down and bought a $765,000 rental home in Rancho Santa Margarita.

At first, he was pleased with the deal. A year later, the home’s value had jumped at least 8% to around $825,000 or more.

Today, however, Watts has defaulted on the home’s loan after the price dropped 22% from that original sale price. He’s currently in escrow, seeking his lender’s approval to sell it for nearly $93,000 less than he owes on it.

“I can make the payments. That’s not the issue. It’s a business decision,” Watts said. “I tried to work with the lender. The lender didn’t help. They said, go ahead, do a short sale. It’s strictly business.”

Watts, the chief prognosticator for the Orange County Association of Realtors, once was one of local real estate’s biggest boosters. Where others saw a market slump, Watts kept seeing price gains.

In 2006, Watts forecast a 15% price jump. Instead, sales dropped 28% and prices rose a meager 2.4%.
In 2007, Watts predicted that existing home prices would increase from 4% to 7% (7% for houses, 4% or 5% for condos). Following the subprime mortgage meltdown, and prices ended the year down 10%.
Watts did not issue a price forecast for 2008, saying there was too much uncertainty. But if they followed historical trends, house prices would increase from 3% to 5%, he said. By year’s end, the whole economy had tanked, and Watts had issued an apology. Home prices fell 30%.

Things were looking much rosier — for the economy and for this house on Apache Drive — when Watts bought it in July 2005. The home, one of 20 he’s invested in, backed up to the wilderness just outside the gates of Coto de Caza. Its 2,700 square feet of living space included four bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths plus a bonus room. A year later, similar homes nearby sold for $825,000 to $835,000, up at least $60,000, Watts said.

He spent $20,000 more in repairs after a destructive tenant trashed the place. Then, the value seemed to drop by $100,000 overnight after owners of two nearby properties let their homes deteriorate, then let them go back to the bank, he said.

Rental payments on the home totaled about $1,000 below Watts’ monthly house payments and association dues. Five months ago, he put it up for sale for $649,000, or about $43,000 below what he owed on the loan. He tried to work with his lender to modify the mortgage, but the lender “just couldn’t make a decision,” he said. “They’d rather just tank it.”

He stopped making payments late last year, and by the time the lender recorded a “notice of default,” he was more than $16,000 in arrears.

He eventually got a buyer after dropping the price to $599,000. He’s been waiting nearly a month for the lender to get the property appraised, let alone decide whether to approve the sale.

“That (home) had the biggest decline and the largest negative,” Watts said. “All the other properties, I’m maintaining.”

Register blogger Mathew Padilla contributed to this report.

Other housing stories …

… in the lending world …

… from South County …

… and Surf City:

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

See blog content by category ...

lee in irvine says:

March 25, 2009 at 8 pm

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!

I feel zero sympathy for this SOB! I hope he loses everything and moves out of The OC.

Gary “In the Bag” Watts at his absolute best! Pay special attention to the first quote, “Look mom, no hands!”:
.
10/23/2005 ~ “I only forecast off the numbers … It’s all based on pure economics.” ~ Orange County Register
.
02/13/2006 ~ “Fifteen percent is pretty much in the bag for Orange County in 2006 … It’s impossible for prices to go down this year.” ~ Fortune Magazine
.
07/21/2006 ~ “I think we probably are not going to see 15 (percent), but I think 11 or 12 (percent) is still realistic.” ~ Orange County Register
.
07/22/2006 ~ “”August ought to be the last month of weak appreciation numbers.” ~ Orange County Register
.
07/22/2006 ~ “I really think that we are pretty close to the bottom of our real estate prices … August ought to be the last month of weak appreciation numbers.” ~ Orange County Register
.
12/31/2006 ~ “If the un-motivated sellers stay out of the market, we could be in for a very big surprise.” ~ Orange County Register
.
01/01/2008 ~ “Cyclical housing downturns have always occurred. The good news is these situations do not last forever. The cycles tend to run approximately 27 to 36 months, so this cyclical downturn should run its course by summer.” ~ Impact Real Estate Jan 2008 Housing & Economic Forecast
.
06/23/2008 ~ “I apologize for not knowing what Wall Street did to our mortgages” … “I had no idea how Wall Street restructured these loans.” ~ Orange County Register

sowhat says says:

reap what you sew……….just as the first poster, no sympathy for the idiot..well at least he’s victim of own words…..it’s a business decision! WTF, you’re fooled yourself and took others down with you…..yeap, hopefully he packs his “bag” and moves on~

Bill says:

.
Watt’s and his kind (truthi…etc) are the same losers that we deal with on a daily basis in this blog.
.
These idiots got this whole housing mess wrong and now they have resorted in trying to manipulate others to buy their overpriced debt, hoping there are people out there dumber than they were.
.
Debtracker, truthi, sean (Shane), Mulligan,Watt’s ………………they are all underwater and have huge amounts of negative equity, an unbelievable amount of debt and are basically bankrupt.
.
Now you know why they are desperately trying to talk up the market in here.
.
It’s a last ditch effort to try and pawn off their problems on some other unsuspecting imbecile, with no other option other than being forced by the banks to short sell their greed.
.
There will be an unbelievable barrage of dumb dumbs defaulting soon.

meltdown says:

lol…
.
ok,, im gonna take it easy on Gary here, before Lansner’s and Padilla’s firing squad take their shots.
.
At Least he put his money where his mouth was. Most bulls on this blog talk lots of smack about this being the bottom but dont follow through. Maybe because they have already gone “all-in” on the RE game.
.
The RE gig is a tough one these days, and they always say “You’re only as good as your last paycheck.”
.
It’s still America, you’re allowed to say what you want. Even if its pure delusional non-sense. So, Buyer beware.

ocbear says:

March 25, 2009 at 9 pm

I’m glad people like Mr. Watts are getting spanked by the same bubble mania that they fueled with their garbage analysis.

Will Work for Food says:

It’s hard to tell from the picture, but is Watts sporting a mullet? If so, here’s hoping he walks away with enough cash for a decent haircut.

truth says:

You shouldn’t be allowed to just walk away. They should take everything you have including your 401k and then garnish all of your future wages until you make restitution. The crushing fist of capitalism should be free to make your it’s

Gunner says:

Maybe you guys missed this is just the 1 out of 20 that went bad. He probably lost $70K (which would have been less if there was decent people renting it) or so in total and the bank lost about the same. $70K loss is nothing for a multi-millionaire.

Rob Dawg says:

Feb ‘06 the median home price in Ventura County was $680690 and Gary Watts said “17% is in the bag.”

Feb ‘09 $327,000. $10,000 per month. Every month for 3 years.

tmare says:

Let’s see. Could it be possible that the bank he used is going to use our tax money to bail them both out of their bad decisions?

Oh, I forgot, it’s a rental, can he do that legally?

snarf says:

Wow. Unbelievable.

graphrix says:

March 25, 2009 at 10 pm

Actually Gunner, if you read the article, and could add, you would see that Gary lost a lot more than $70k.

$77k down payment

$20k is repairs

$48k $1k a month bleeding rent loss X 4 years

Total loss of $145k.

Remember kids, debt does not equal wealth. You have to subtract the debt from the value of assets. Which in Gary’s case most likely means he has a negative net worth. He is not a multi-millionaire. If that were the case, then he would be selling a house as a short sale.

A short sale, which shouldn’t be approved since this is a non-owner occupied unit, and the lender happens to be a TARP recipient. I thought we weren’t supposed support the speculating flippers, like Gary with the TARP money. I wonder how Ken Lewis would feel about Gary’s business decision and any other decisions he makes on homes that they have loans on?

Dave says:

I can make the payments…………………..

I wonder if it will sell? I’m sure he’s got some equity in his other properties so if he needed to cover his losses he could sell those waaaay below market value to quickly pay back the bank if he cant sell at his price. We’re talkin bout Gary here, he’d never walk and lay it all on the good tax paying people of oc. Would he? Orange County Association of Realtors are ‘good guys’ right?

Tom says:

This is PURE COMEDY. Reality IS stranger than fiction.

rants, I need to borrow this from you: lollollololol @ ribsplitter

omg, I’m in tears laughing so hard

only in the OC baby….Gary freakin’ Watts…and he’ll have street cred with some sheeple after this….they deserve to get slaughtered

Hiflyer says:

Wow! Now we are seeing true face of Gary ‘the loser’ Watts.

Here is another face of Gary ‘the loser’ Watts.

Gary = Ken, Truthi, Provider, Mulli, Shockg, Dealtracker

sunnsea says:

March 25, 2009 at 11 pm

There was no sound reason for prices in the OC to go that high and they will fall at least back to 1997-98 levels. There has been no real growth in the economy at least since 2001. As Obama said last night, derivatives should not have counted as part of the US GDP because they are just promissary notes in a way and yet that is exactly what has happened over the past 5 or 6 years. We have been cooking the national books for years. It’s all an illusion.

BTW, we have to congratulate Jon and Mathew Padilla for finding this information.

Jon, OCR has given a lot of ink and publicity to Gary last few years. Are you going to get this story published in OCR? That will be a fitting tribute to true symbol of real estate bubble and insanity in Orange County.

sunsetbeachguy says:

This warms the cockles of my heart.

The only thing better would be a perp walk.

White collar crime prosecutions take about 5 years, so look for the housing bubble perp walks in 2010/2011.

I don’t know if Gary will be one of them but one can hope.

Mark says:

Who actually listens to this jacka$$

Troy says:

Wait a minute! If he is renting this out, which he even admits in the media that he is, then that means this is NOT his primary residence. And if he financed this through Countrywide/BofA, which was bailed out by TARP money, then doesn’t that mean he can NOT be approved for a short sale? This is exactly the scenario the bailout money was not supposed to work for; the investment RE owner trying to flip houses or buy up rental property. Does the bank know this is a rental unit?!?

Mr. Padilla, are you able to follow up on that angle? Maybe I’m off base, but I don’t think this type of sale is supposed to be approved using our tax money bailout funds.

Scott says:

March 26, 2009 at 12 am

Jon,
You might as well take the rest of the year off, because there is no way you can top this post!
20 houses? Gary must have lost a couple million dollars of equity in the past year or two.
Schadenfreude at its BEST.

Not only that, but he says he can make the payments, which means he truly doesn’t qualify for a short sale. BofA should make him come to the table with the difference plus fees on the sales price from what is owed, or go through the judicial foreclosure process, since he is a multi-millionaire and has 20 other properties. They should be able to easily recoup the attorney fees, and may even get them covered, if Gary is worth what he says he is.

What an arrogant jerk he is. I wonder what the asset manager of his short sale would think of him if he read this? I wonder if his now public story corroborates with what he has told BofA?

Imee says:

March 26, 2009 at 1 am

That looks REALLY bad. I mean, sure, he’s in the OC, he’s got money (er, used to?), and everything. But money should be spent wisely, and not all at once on things you don’t even really NEED. I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say he might lose everything.

antigone says:

March 26, 2009 at 4 am

I hear Gary has a used car for sale. Anybody interested?

dapper1 says:

March 26, 2009 at 5 am

I love how the DEALTRAcker says that people in here attempt to somehow manipulate the market down so we can buy at 97/98 prices. As if we have that ability.
.
This clown has 20 properties and all he did was talk the market up; NATIONALLY.
.
My only agenda is to vent.

Lagunabeach says:

Mr. Watt’s actions are indicative of the cultural rot in our country. It’s a ‘business decision’ to not pay one’s obligations even if the means exist - ethics be damned. Mr. Watt’s, one of the 5 C’s of credit is ‘character’. You show none by openly admitting you have the ability, not the willingness, to honor your legal contracts. I hope the bank goes judicial and sues you personally.

rick4us says:

I agree with Laguna Beach. I would like more information related to Mr. Watt’s ability to pay. For example, how many rental properties does Mr Watt’s own? Does he have properties with cost basis from 10 - 20 years ago that have very large positive cash flows that can easily offset his negative cash flow on this particular property. If he does, then he should not have any opportunity to walk away from his financial obligations. He should have to sell some of his other properties to pay for his poor investment decision.

It’s not a pure business decision to stick a lender with an upside down mortgage.

Anyone with any perspective knows that Real Estate is cyclical. As much as I agree that the market was way overvalued it will probably over compensate on the undervalue side and there will be opportunities for appreciation.

Mr Watt’s does not deserve to have unlimited appreciation on the upside and limited depreciation on the downside. Especially if he has the ability to pay the mortgage.

MtgFrdLwyr says:

March 26, 2009 at 6 am

Its a rental. No protection there. They should go after him for the balance. I would. The problem is that lenders are so swamped that they don’t have the resources to do it. I would do that one on a contingency just for fun.

Tom M says:

Gary Watts and the rest of the bulls don’t know their ass from their elbow.

March 26, 2009 at 7 am

This is a wonderful environment to make the banks absorb some of an investor’s loses. Gary is doing just that…he can make the payments, but choses not to. The lender approves a short sale and with our tax dollars the lender is not losing money. Gary is losing FAR less than if he had to pay the bank back the full amount. Great business decision and another reason why you should be buying real-estate. And NOW is the time to do it. You can’t do this scheme with any other investments out there!

Gunner, so what your saying is prices are not coming back any time soon, otherwise Gary should keep the home. I guess you lost hope also.

Olivas Salone says:

More Bear pourn

Tom I know my elbow from you

mav says:

Watts — “I can make the payments. That’s not the issue. It’s a business decision,” Watts said. “I tried to work with the lender. The lender didn’t help. They said, go ahead, do a short sale. It’s strictly business.”
.
hell yeah it’s a business decision
the hells bells are ringing
and the grand master cheer leader
is jumping ship
his cheer leading was a business decision as well
the pom-poms are burnt out
more foreclosures ugh, i mean “business decisions” to come…

March 26, 2009 at 8 am

No Tom. Gary is making a good business decision by taking advantage of the current lending market and government housing support to mitigate current loses. He can use his other millions to buy other properties at screaming deals. If his lender would have worked with him on a refinance, he would have kept the house, got a renter and have positive cash flow. But the lender chose to dump it instead since our tax dollars are creating a good environment for lenders to do this.

Oil Can says:

I wonder if saw that coming

Anonymouse says:

Man….you simply can’t make up this stuff. I feel no sympathy for anybody who has no moral compass, and makes “a business decision” to bail on a commitment between themselves and their lender.
|
Gary’s decision is one of the reasons non-owner occupied mortgage rates are so much higher than owner-occupied rates. Owner-occupants make “business decisions” less often, so we pay lenders less for lower risk. It is hard to get rental property purchase financing right now because of the many decisions being made by speculators and landlords to simply walk from their loans.
|
Whatever happened to moral obligation, Gary? You expect your leasing tenants to maintain it with you as the landlord, and yet you blow it off with your lender? If you had little credibility here before, you have ZERO (zilch, nada, zip) here now. You owe your industry following a HUGE apology. Not for being wrong, but for lacking the character the industry expects its consumers to have. I am disgusted.

poneeboy53 says:

gunner,
.
the fact that it is morally wrong doesn’t bother you at all. Wow it shows what kind of person you are. I guess you don’t care about right and wrong only $$$$.
.
Not paying your debts is not a business decision but a moral one IMHO.
.
Same goes with POTUS saying he is going to cut the deficit in half by the end of his term but is flat out lying because he is raising spending by 3x’s then cutting that number in half. He ain’t cutting nothing but his own raised spending. Then he pawns it off at being fiscally responsable. I guess since we have a president who is so dishonest how can we expect our fellow citizens to have any kind of morality.
.
This country is heading on downward spiral that I really think this time we will not be able to get out of. Sad Sad times.

Gunner it’s time for you to take your own advice
and walk baby walk !
Watts sent in the jingle mail, and he had skin in the game
i doubt you have any skin in the game
put your debt where your mouth is
step right up, and make that “business decision”

It is just business poneeboy…business is like warfare…you fight to win and do whatever means necessary. For if you don’t, your enemy will take what is yours. If you can’t handle this, then you shouldn’t be playing this game. Join a charity or church if you wish to live in a moral world.

HaHaHa! says:

“A Business Decision”???…Now that this came out, good luck trying filling the auditoriums and selling your propaganda!

“I can make the payments. That’s not the issue. It’s a business decision,” Watts said….Then you should commit to your responsibility and continue making your payment.

Dealtracker says:

Sales are still climbing and inventory and rates are still falling.

Scott @ 12:28 am
if the dominoes start falling
and there is a Watts default every other week
the LULZ can get much better
Watts has more business decisions to make….
.
Gunner time for you to STFU with your business no-ledge
if you make enough “business decisions” like this
you are headed straight for the poor house
how do you become a real estate mogul millionaire?
start out with a billion dollars — LULZ
redfin is hiring

Gunner:
|
v
Are you crazy? You actually believe that business is “win at any cost,” including bailing from your debt obligations? How about murdering your competitors? Is that also a “business decision?”
|
v
You belong on Wall Street with the rest of the morally decrepit SOBs who got us into this mess. Your attitude is also what makes the further deterioration of the US certain.
|
v
You disgust me as much as Gary does.

Absolutely bailing out from debt obligations falls under business decision choices. Trump went into bankruptcy twice and still is a gazillionaire. Business tycoons must choose when to lose today in order to have future wins. Gary is making a good choice to bail out. I would do the same. Those of you that don’t and complain it is “morally wrong” are the ones never to have the wonderful material posessions this world has to offer–$1M+ homes, boats, cars, power, and fame. The only people that complain “we are in a mess” are the losers in this warfare…as for me, I love it because I am a winner.

And you could be a winner also. Stop complaining, understand the rules of the game, learn how to evaluate the risk to bend or break those rules, then have the courage and intelligence to play. Let me know when you are ready to buy RE, now is the time!

Crystal Balls says:

I don’t get all the rage. This guy obviously believed what he was saying. He put his money where his mouth was. He was obviously very wrong. It seems to me you should be more angry if Watts DIDN”T buy real estate because it would mean he didn’t believe his rosey predictions. Really, your reaction shows many of you bears are just angry resentful folks who believe people who made big money are cheating the system. The liberals play off this anger to justify more and more regulation, which just makes things worse, which justifies more regulation. And Gunner, business is not all winners and losers. You “win” in business by providing a product or service that people value.

And Gunner, I am one of the biggest believers in Capitalism you will ever find, but your crass materialism grosses me out. I believe in free markets because they reward effort, price efficiently (but not perfectly), and result in economic growth. I don’t know if you are a winner or loser, economically speaking, but you obviously have a misguided sense of what is important in life.

HAHAHAH! says:

Hey Gary,
Now that you have admitted publicly that you are NOT insolvent be prepared to pay income taxes on the amount that was forgiven by your lender!!!!

Josh says:

March 26, 2009 at 9 am

There are no “rules” for short sales, regarding investment properties or anything else. The bank agrees with it or not, and you declare the forgiven debt as income. Banks that took TARP money can still do business as usual, writing off bad debt or whatever.

CB:
|
v
My rage is not that Gary bought real estate. He should have put his money where his mouth is, which he did….but ONLY if he did not plan to screw his lender when the going got rough. Otherwise he should have sat it out like so many responsible people here chose to do.
|
v
Gunner’s reference to Donald Trump’s bankruptcy is stupid. Gary SHOULD declare bankruptcy like Trump has done in the past in order to reorganize his holdings, tap into other equity he has, and make this lender whole. That’s a higher road than stiffing the lender — and probably us taxpayers.
|
v
The issue is ENTIRELY moral. If you and Gunner wish to reduce it to a “business decision,” consider that “When you run with the big dogs, you lift your leg high.” Gary is a chihuahua running in a pack of wolves. He clearly is / was out of his league, and now the lender — who assumed he was good for the mortgage — is left getting wizzed on.

A Little Rain for your Parade

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=7158004&page=1

Crystal Ball-you have to compete against like minded people in providing the similar product or service to the consumer. You win by providing a better product/service than your competitor. In a world without competition, your world view is sound, but that is not reality. You defeat your competitor in this warfare and you do whatever is necessary to do it. In RE, you compete against other buyers for valuable property. The consumer is the renter if it is an investment. You got to be naive to believe RE investors are doing it to make the world a better place…no, they are doing it for PROFIT.

Ok,, so which is it? Is it impossible for the Bears to talk-down the market? But still possible for Gary to talk-up the market? I believe its a two way street, sort of. Loose lending did help boost the market.
.
I think we should have Gary post personally to let us know how he will work himself out of this situation. I believe this could be a good learning experience for all of us.
.
His choices so far:
.
a)shortsale or walk, and be castrated by society, or maybe arrested.
.
b )bankruptcy,, and get ripped a new one in bk court.
.
c)be responsible,, pay the debt and come out on top again.
.
i wonder whats gonna happen… hopefully matt and jon will keep us posted if gary doesn’t.

Olivas Salone:
|
v
Nobody in this post is arguing that the market is not at or near its bottom, so there is no parade to rain on.
|
v
If anybody should take note that there is upside in the market, it is Gary, who should hold his property, covering any negative cash flow he experiences, in order to benefit from the near-certain recovery that will occur. Send him your link and see if you can win him to your enthusiasm.

they are down says:

Gunner’s comments sound a lot like Al Pacino in “The Devil’s Advocate”.

OOOOOKKKKKKAAAYY, So now you’re NOT arguing we’re at or near the bottom. That’s quite an admission. And I don’t need to send this guy the link. He’s probably already partnered up with a foreign investor to sell his properties to at a loss, write it down, then participate as a limited partner in the income from the same properties he sold. SAAAWWWWEEEEETTT!

Olivas Salone:
|
v
You are an idiot. I said the point was not being argued IN THIS POST. It IS being argued in many different posts on Jon’s blog, and those posts are where your link belongs.
|
v
I personally believe we are at or near the bottom, but my position is not significant to the argument about Gary and his decision to walk.
|
v
The reason bulls have so little credibility here (and I consider myself one of them) is because you guys continue to be cheerleaders in all the wrong places at the wrong times. Stick to the topic or bear the wrath of more objective people than yourself.

Spencer Janke says:

Well this does not surprise me at all. I mean I am sure there are many individuals in the real estate industry in the same position. This is the reality of where we find ourselves currently. I think it is sad. I wouldn’t say I feel sad for him, however I do find it sad for the millions of others who legitimately need out of their homes.

IHB Reader says:

Actually, Jon and Matt should give credit where credit is due. Gary Watts’ implosion was being discussed on the Irvine Housing Blog forums yesterday.

no worries says:

March 26, 2009 at 10 am

This is pretty outrageous. I hope the reporters here can be vigilant in following this story.

Gary stopped making payments months ago? Did he continue to collect rent while not making his payments? Isn’t that fraud?

Can we please get Gary’s comments regarding his ability to pay forwarded to the bank responsible for this loan?

Thank you graphix for your efforts to bring this unique situation to light, not just to the bloggers here, but to politicians and others who can make a difference. I hope Padilla does the same.

This man was a cheerleader, and in doing so prompted an unknown number to follow his lead. He does NOT deserve the easy way out.

King says:

Doesn’t seem like much of a prognosticator to me ……..

Gunner says:
“You win by providing a better product/service than your competitor. In a world without competition, your world view is sound, but that is not reality. You defeat your competitor in this warfare and you do whatever is necessary to do it.”

Yes, you compete and provide a better service or product. No, that doesn’t mean you have to do “whatever is necessary.” There are people like you who have that perspective (See B. Madoff). I believe in the rule of law. In fact, we can’t prosper as a society unless we have the rule of law.

k.o. says:

I saw this last night after a frustrating 3 hours of building myself a new computer. This made my night, and I could help but be filled with schadenfreude.

March 26, 2009 at 11 am

Quit Whinning, you goofed and you got called on it. Brainiac.

.
It’s not a “business decision” to overleverage yourself in debt, exclusively in real estate.
.
That’s called stupidity.
.
Keep um coming, because I’m profiting from all of your “business decisions” while you’re going bankrupt!

Rapunzel says:

What we need to do is change the BANKRUPTCY laws. As Gunner notes, Trump just files BK after BK, but still seems to be able to borrow more (maybe from people like Gunner, who will later get stiffed!) Hmmm… maybe no change IS needed…

March 26, 2009 at 12 pm

If the bank had half a brain, which judging by their recent business performance they do not, they would pursue judicial foreclosure with Gary “in the bag” Watts.

This would satisfy (legally) some of the populist bloodlust and would make it easier for the feds to keep bailing the bank out.

But quite simply, that would be too smart and just of an outcome for it to become reality.

shockg says:

Weren’t the bears on this blog suggesting/ persuading people to walk away?? So Watt’s took your advice and now it’s a moral issue? Oh the hypocracy and self serving bs.

Paulson calls a market bottom today! Earnings coming in higher than expected! It is too late for the bottom callers waiting on the sidelines. Look-the American consumer has an unlimited appetite. You really think this group can save their money..haha. We are borrowing against our future children. They will pay for our debt. Thankyou parents for birthing all these bank accounts :)

awgee says:

Gunner - I am ready to buy.

March 26, 2009 at 1 pm

Gunner Says:
I am not buying–I don’t have much money and not enough courage. But if I did, I would be gobbling up like crazy.
.
Hey Gunner, you posted this on “Rossmoor, Coto sellers cut home prices most often”
..
.
SO WHICH IS IT? ON THIS BLOG YOU’RE A WINNER, BUT OVER THERE YOU’RE WISHING YOU COULD GET IN THE GAME… I almost felt bad the way NOT BUY IT ripped you… but you are an idiot.

Haha, I love it when bears have no other ammunition agaisnt me except to attack my character. Shows I won…again :)
By the way, you can be a winner by not being a loser…dig it?
PS–market up another 2.25% today…bears, bears…any valuable comments?

One last thing… If we’re at the bottom and now is the time to buy, then why is Gary Watts walking away? Why not just ride the explosion up… I mean that’s what is going to happen, right Gunner. A Bull rush on the realestate market?

Eat it in the OC says:

March 26, 2009 at 2 pm

So typical. Gunner only has one type of ammunition: fear. Go sell crazy some place esle, we’re all full here.

not buying it says:

Dear GOD!!! The man thought he made a wise investment decision in buying rental property that was in the red $1K a month.

Any fool that invests in RE and rental properties knows that you NEVER take the cyclic appreciation route with RE investing - YOU CAN’T SELL IT LIKE A STOCK!!! I never had a reason to do it, but can you even write off the loss? rental loss? Or from the sale? I have bought and sold RE for over two decades now - NEVER have I been in the red once on a monthly basis w/ rent and I have enjoyed the volatility of the OC market in particular when it comes to buying and selling. I guess you can say I have enjoyed not having to know the answers to those questions.

The RE investors in the OC are definitely living in a vaccuum if they think those are some wise decisions Watts made or even attempt to justify such decisions.

Even the investment advisers in the media will ALWAYS tell you - ONLY BUY IF YOU WILL BE IN THE GREEN ON RENT!!! DonS is our local exception who will tell you one thing but do another - the man has yet to be in the red on a rental property or he’s not as wealthy as he claims. Not one TRUE professional in the media will tell you that is a wise choice - NOT ONE!!!

Once again: WHO thinks this market will turn around without a loosening of lending standards to the same level seen in 2003 (since we are @ 2003 pricing and incomes have not budged much) or prices keep dropping? Anyone? Anyone?

March 26, 2009 at 3 pm

Gunner: does a bottom call on a national market mean the bottom has been hit on all local markets?

Are you even a realtor? - at least they know RE is all about micro markets.

Since you’re not a realtor - you must be one of those idiots sitting at home, sweating that huge bill every month that is over half your take home - barely able to eat or worse yet, not able to keep the wifey happy - and finding joy in attempting to be above it all. Hate to tell you - winners have winning attitudes.

That means they BUY WHEN IT IS THE TIME TO BUY and SELL WHEN IT IS TIME TO SELL!!!!

You obvioulsy don’t understand the most basic of investment philosophies. Then again, just about all common sense is lost on you.

Good luck with the fear tactic though - seeing you have much experience in that department, at least I would bet money there’s a few things you can teach even me about when it comes to being fearful.

The market is going up, up up! Buy low, sell high…you bears missed the low point a little while ago…sorry you feel so bad and you are just going to have to wait on the sidelines for another cycle. RE is the best investment as it will shelter you and provide joy while appreciating in value. And if you don’t want to live in it, then someone will pay you to live in it…no other investment out there like it. See you bears at the next cycle :)
By the way bears–keep attacking my character, I love when that is all you have left to bring to the table :)

Amateurs Teach Amateurs To Be Amateurs says:

Please folks, do yourselves a favor and stop wasting good energy on Gunner.
.
“Gunner Says:
I am not buying–I don’t have much money and not enough courage. But if I did, I would be gobbling up like crazy.”
.
It is clear Gunner is no more than a 24 year old 2-bit pawn sitting in a Keller Williams or C21 “King Realtors” (LMFAO) cubicle in inland OC. He’s in his 3rd month of the realtard training program and can’t seem to find a way to hit his sales numbers. So he comes on this blog to proudly regurgitate what he’s learned in his 2 required reading Realtor(r) books which have taught him real estate never goes down.
.
Gunner finds great pleasure in this blog bc you folks actually respond to what he says - much better than the continual anger and dial tones he receives when making his cold calls. Let’s all ignore him so hopefully he goes back to his duties. He’ll soon be a real estate multi-millionaire, they tell him.

Amateurs–Haha–good one! I love the word realtard! You are way off the mark so that made it even more entertaining :)
By the way, the market is up 20% from the low!! Sorry bears, your doom and gloom caused you to miss that advance..haha.

image009 says:

March 26, 2009 at 7 pm

Gunner -
Wow, you are quite a f u c k i ng a s s h o l e, aren’t you?

Gunner (debtracker)
.
You’re homeless aren’t you?
.
Too many brain cells gone bye bye.
.
You’re not functioning like a normal person.
.
“Buy low sell high” is not what you did.
.
If you have bought real estate in the last 6 years you have bought high and you will sell low.

March 26, 2009 at 8 pm

image009–woohoo, clever how you got away with typing those vulger words and not get caught. Bravo!
Hey bears–you are running out of things to say now that we are starting a bull market…awwww.
I am just so glad companies are trimming their fat by firing the lazy American waste workers and they have been hording cash to be ready to explode on the market at these depressed prices…looking forward to it :)

March 26, 2009 at 9 pm

yup the market is up 17-20%. I assume you knew this was going to happen and acted accordingly. If you knew this would happen and didn’t place a trade. Then you have lost money. So how many bottoms have you bought over the past year? Just curious..

Oh ya, I absolutely new it was going to happen. And accordingly I did not sell any of my stocks or RE before this bull market :) Not losing is just like winning! I don’t buy at the bottoms…I leave that up to the courageous folks out there!

March 26, 2009 at 10 pm

lets see how many of Lee’s aliases we can identify. Here’s a clue, the posts usually include the words ponzi scheme, carnival barker, etc. Here’s one name…Blood on your dress.

You knew it was the bottom. You didn’t pull the trigger or add to your position. You lost 20% because you failed to do so. Or we can see it your way, “Not loosing is winning”. And this is why i didn’t buy the RE hype before. However if I had to ability to predict the future and knew that RE would explode to the upside and didn’t act, i would certainly be disappointed in myself.
.
Not acting on knowledge = FAIL.

March 27, 2009 at 2 am

Is someone at the Register following the apparent illegal tactics that Gary Watts has used, or is trying to use, in selling this rental property? The real story here is the apparent fraud that Mr. Watts is attempting to commit with this sale.

March 27, 2009 at 6 am

Gary,

How much are RE prices going to rise this year? Do you still believe prices will go up until 2017, or have you changed that to 2117?

March 27, 2009 at 7 am

Meltdown–dont confuse knowledge with speculation. Knowledge is something you realize after the fact, speculation is something you realize before the fact. I speculated the dow would and continue to go up below 7000, but I chose to not act. Rather, I held onto my positions and rode the wave up. I am speculating my RE investment will climb and I will be right. Meanwhile, my renter is paying me a profit while I wait for the inevitable. Can’t do that with stocks (except dividend stocks, but that is another story). So, go out and buy RE NOW. Best investment ever.
And don’t confuse actual losses with paper losses. People conveniently swap the two in order to prove a point. They are not the same.

March 27, 2009 at 9 am

Gunner,speculation is something you realize before the fact? Where do you get this crap? Are u an unemployed comedy writer? It takes true talent to make crap like this up.

Hey shockg, we will be revisiting your comments of “bottom is here” in a few months and I’ll ask Lee to make sure to post it in his updates. You’ll be famous, just like Thoughful Provider

And Gunner, please let us know what is going to happen in the market - your predictions will hopefully be even more comedic than your regular troll posts.

lwps says:

How does Gary keep holding the bubble in his hands in that picture? The man is a miracle worker.

“Dont Confuse actual losses with paper losses.” That is an interesting take. I’ve never looked at it that way. Holding through a loss is not something i usually do. My investment style is not a buy and hold. But yes, RE will go up, eventually. As well as stocks in general. I just think money can be spread elsewhere, instead of piled into RE and waiting around till it eventually starts to move. Time matters. But thats just me.

You see, the reason why the bulls have to change their names is because they have been getting it wrong here for so long. I’ll pull this little gem out again, where grandpa sighburrdood was telling everyone to buy in Feb of 2008! And here we get the same types of chants from shockg, dealtracker, gunner, own_home, etc. etc. etc.

http://tinyurl.com/6zxl8o

And Gunner, please let us know what is going to happen in the market - your predictions will hopefully be even more comedic than your regular t-r-o-double L posts.

Ya-the great thing about a smart individual investor is we have time on our side. The boys in Wall Street have to meet short term profit targets so they must buy and sell frequently. I can just sit back and bide my time to take the profits whenever I feel like it. RE is great for doing this. I simply hold thru a paper loss and wait for real gains. Unless it suits me to take the loss to offset the tax on gains. Can’t do this in RE, but RE will give you shelter and pleasure while you wait :) And that is what most people are doing today. Only the suckers that think things are going to get worse and the suckers that are forced to sell after recently buying are losing big time to the winners who are buying today. Now Gary sold eventhough he could make payments and he is taking a small loss (in the big picture). But remember he has 19 other properties that are doing fine.

shockg Says:
.
Weren’t the bears on this blog suggesting/ persuading people to walk away?? So Watt’s took your advice and now it’s a moral issue? Oh the hypocracy and self serving bs.
..
Hell yea!! Gary Should Walk. He will suffer the consequences. Common business sense says cut your losses asap. Morals? well it wasn’t always like that.
..
Once upon a time in America. If you had a business idea or investment idea, you went to the bank and got funding. Both investor and banker sat down, assessed the RISK, the investor put up collateral or a down payment, and money was loaned out. It was the banks duty to stay diversified and keep the books balanced. If the idea failed, the investor walked, lost the down payment or collateral and took a hit on the credit rating. The bank also took the loss and recovered with some collateral. The bank was still functional because it invested in other people and businesses that were successful. There was nothing wrong with cutting your losses and walking away. Both parties took a hit. No one lost their shirt.
.
today its different. Banks drank the cool-aid, so did the investors. We had a bubble and it blew up in our faces. Now the banks need the bailout. And the taxpayers are sucked into this mess. Before the cool-aid you could walk. It was no big deal. Gary is stuck between a rock and a hard place now. There was a time when he could walk and it wasn’t a moral issue.

jg says:

March 27, 2009 at 8 pm

But wait! There’s more!

His company also bought the house next door to the one in the story on March 25 2005 for 713. He listed it for sale earlier this year for 200k less than he paid. It was in escrow last I checked - about a month ago.

My feelings about him have gone from contempt to pity.

At least he was drinking his own kool-aid.

I recognize Gunner. He probably won’t admit it but an algorithm of his sentence structure and vocabulary would clearly indict him. I will now publicly state that Gunner is in fact and, to me, without a doubt, Jimmy2. I’ll state my street cred on it. Right, Jimmy2?

forsakencraft says:

March 31, 2009 at 12 pm

Reap the whirlwind Gary “in the bag” Watts

Slice	Price	Ch.	Sold	Ch.
House	$500,000	+18%	1,833	+11%
Condo	$290,000	+7%	881	+22%
New	$617,500	+24%	171	-17%
All OC	$435,000	+10%	2,885	+12%

Orange County Register