Welcome to Eyeball 2009! This is our holiday gift to you: Two weeks of outlooks on local real estate conditions! A new vision every day of the week at noon through Jan. 6! Our 9th guest is …

John Most, president and CEO of the Most Agency in Newport Beach, is a Madison Avenue type who learned he could thrive in the ad game without living in New York City. Remember the Grey Poupon ads? He produced some of those, as well as ads for Minute Maid, A1 Steak Sauce and Diet Sprite. He also worked for years for Prudential, and most recently has handled ad campaigns for the National Association of Realtors. He notes that the views he expresses here are his own and “do not reflect the position of my client, the National Association of Realtors.”

Eyeball: It’s been a couple years since you helped NAR launch “It’s a great time to buy or sell a home” campaign. Knowing what you know today, do you think that campaign was premature?

John: I think it’s a lot like Monday morning quarterbacking. It’s all about the information you had then vs. the point in time you are picking for comparative purposes. At the time, with no comparison point, the decision was sound and the information and facts we provided and portrayed were true. Hey, Even Alan Greenspan agreed with us…back then!

But if you compare to the 2006 market to today — this point in time — you’d be correct that our timing could have been a lot better.

Our new campaign does note that sometimes family conditions outweigh market conditions and that a home should always be considered a long-term investment in your future. The financial talking heads over the past two years have homeowners convinced they should look at their home as if it were a stock: that you should evaluate the value daily. I disagree.

[ More Eyeball '09 HERE | Eyeball '08 | '07 ]

A home has been, should be and will always be a place to raise your family FIRST. After that, it provides security to your future and it is a large part of most people’s retirement planning. Remember, you can’t live in a stock.

Eyeball: What are the prospects going to be for buyers and sellers in 2009?

• Click to vote on '09 pricing!

John: I think it will all depend largely on three factors:

1. The credit market and availability of money to lend people.
2. What the interest rate is — there is an awful lot of talk about a 4%-4.5% interest rate. NAR is advocating that rate for ALL home owners, not just first-time buyers. I think that will significantly improve the housing market and in-turn, the economy.
3. For seller, more interest in the homes they have to sell — but they must be priced fairly to the market conditions. In Orange County, the drop has not been as precipitous. Many longer term homeowners, I believe, will still sell in the upcoming months with a nice, reasonable profit.

Eyeball: What’s the OC housing outlook for 2009? Why?

John: I believe the market will actually improve significantly. Why? I believe the negative press, which has been so anti-real estate and so Pro-Obama will do all they can to present every small economic improvement in a more positive light than they did in the Bush administration. I expect consumer confidence will grow during the year and that the real estate market will benefit … IF … money is made more available from the ill-advised bailout and the interest rates go to 4.5% or possibly lower.

In addition, the OC area has a great start. Single-family home sales in OC are up in October vs. a year ago (+94.8%). This is the fourth month in a row they have been up, year over year.

Eyeball: What’s the chance we bottom in 2009? What might it look like?

John: I personally think the bottom is here now. But practically speaking, you won’t know the bottom happened until about four months after the fact. The bottom will be defined largely by interest rates and lenders putting money into the housing market for buyers who are out there. There is incredible pent-up demand that can’t be acted upon due to the crunch.

Eyeball: What do you fear the most about the real estate market?

John: I fear that all of the funds that have been intended to help resolve the marketplace situation will not get there and that consumer expectation of “deals” is still a little out of whack. Largely, the market needs to flush out the foreclosures to get real pricing and inventory stability in the housing market. It appears we may be getting through that.

[ More Eyeball '09 HERE | Eyeball '08 | '07 ]

Eyeball: What gives you hope?

John: The easy answer is what most people will tell you …Obama. But in reality, I have great hope in the American people and their ability to weather the economic storm and make the right choices.

Eyeball: What surprise or surprises will we be talking about at a year from now?

John: I think consumer confidence will be vastly improved for little more reason than the press will be giving the new administration a lot of room to succeed without any questioning. I think the market will be far better than predicted because I think Congress will push to drive rates lower to help the housing market. And they will start focusing on the banks and their credit card interest policies. A major overhaul is needed there.

And you’ll want to come back …

• NEXT UP: Investor/lender Bruce Norris
  
• THEN: Investment adviser Ryan Kelly
  
• All of Eyeball 2009 to published date is HERE

Posted in: Eyeball '09 • Top tale |

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.