Welcome to 
Eyeball 2009! This is our holiday gift to you: Two weeks of outlooks on local real estate conditions! A new vision every day of the week at noon through Jan. 6! Our ninth guest is …
Rich Cosner is president of a Prudential California Realty chain of 9 offices in Orange County and the Inland Empire. Cosner, a 35-year real estate veteran, is on the board of the Anaheim-based Pacific West Association of Realtors, the state’s largest local Realtor association. (UPDATE: Post updated to delete reference to Cosner’s chain being under Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway firm. Cosner is an independent franchisee operating five offices in north Orange County. PruCal’s South County offices are affiliated with Berkshire Hathaway’s HomeServices of America Inc.)
Eyeball: What’s the OC housing outlook for 2009?
Rich: The market will begin to stabilize in 2009. 2008 sales have actually increased over the same period in 2007.
From Jan. 1 to Nov. 30, the Southern California Multiple Listing Service reported 21,115 closed properties. For the same period in 2007, there were only 18,638 properties closed. This trend is similar across the entire state of California with sales up this year over the prior year.
The low point of sales then in the past decade was in 2007. The challenge of course has been pricing declines. While statistics alone would tell us that prices are down about 25% in the past year, this does not take into account the mix of properties selling. Because of challenging financing for most of 2008 in the higher price ranges where jumbo loans are required, there was a high fall off in the number of sales.
Conversely, because prices on the lower end of the scale dropped, the first-time homebuyer came back into the Orange County market in a big way. This changed the “mix” of homes sold with many more selling under $500,000 and with fewer homes selling in the higher ranges, the averages are not the best indicator of overall price drops.
[ More Eyeball '09 HERE | Eyeball '08 | '07 ]
You need your real estate professional to be area specific to show what prices were one year ago versus today. A “countywide average” while interesting to talk about, is meaningless to any one particular home seller or home buyer. I expect the sales of properties to increase in 2009 over 2008 by about 8% to 10%.
Eyeball: What’s the chance we hit bottom in 2009? What might it look like?
• Click to vote on '09 pricing!
Rich: We bottomed out in 2007 for the actual number of properties sold. I do believe we will see the bottom of the pricing cycle in 2009. This is primarily because of the drop in available inventory. On Dec. 4, 2007, there were 16,349 properties available for sale in Orange County in the SoCalMLS. On Dec. 12, 2008, there were only 11,551 available properties.
With 4,798 fewer properties on the market the “glut” of properties of the past few years has been worked off. Some of these properties sold. Some of the homes were simply taken off the market but the end result is that a buyer in Orange County today has far fewer properties to choose from than a year ago.
Assuming this trend continues, the supply and demand metrics will bring buyers’ desires and sellers’ desires more into balance. When there is a glut of inventory, buyers pretty much have the upper hand and have many home choices if a homeowner rejects their offer. When there is balance in the market, which we are beginning to see, both buyer and seller need to negotiate fairly with each other.
The California Association of Realtors is predicting a price drop in 2009 of an additional 6% on the statewide average selling price. I believe this is an accurate prediction and we will then see prices beginning to increase in 2010.
Eyeball: What do you fear the most about the real estate market? Why?
Rich: The fear is the national economy. While I have concerns about the jobless numbers rising so quickly, my bigger fear is related to a lack of mortgage funds. Liquidity is a critical component of the real estate business and without mortgages it would grind to an ugly halt very quickly.
The government is acutely aware of this and whether you agree with the bank bailouts or not, a prime motivation of the effort was to keep liquidity in the banking and finance system. The efforts being made by the government to make FHA a viable housing program again have been impressive. They also need to continue to work with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure they have the ability to continue to buy mortgages.
Eyeball: What gives you hope? Why?
Rich: I have much hope. I do believe the worst is behind us. As of this writing, we are seeing interest rates in the 4.875% range. Yes, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages for under 5%. Homebuyers are very astute in California. They will quickly realize that an incredibly low interest rate, a safe 30-year fixed payment mortgage and the lowest housing prices in years will make the home of their dreams possible. Homes they could have never dreamed of purchasing a few years ago are now within their reach.
[ More Eyeball '09 HERE | Eyeball '08 | '07 ]
In the larger sense, the government knows that to “fix” the economy, they must fix housing. These low rates will get the sales moving and provide a floor under the market which will become a foundation to grow on.
Eyeball: What surprise or surprises will we be talking about at a year from now?
Rich: If I knew the answer to that now, it would not really be a surprise. I think we will be pleasantly surprised by the vigor of the market when we look back at 2009 in one year. Foreclosures will be down, sales of homes will be up, prices will have stabilized and will grow in the years after 2009. Short of some national financial catastrophe, I think there will be plenty of smiles to go around looking back at 2009.
And you’ll want to come back …
- NEXT UP: Marketing expert John Most
- THEN: Investor/lender Bruce Norris
- All of Eyeball 2009 to published date is HERE
I think things will bloom in the spring!
didnt he say the same damn thing last year? lloooll@ribsplitter
hellloooo this guys livlihood depends on a real estate rebound
duhhhhh- what do you expect from a realtor? the truth? he
couldnt handle the truth
on a much different note- the price of homes wont mean jack squat
in a few years if we continue to trash the earths environment- for
those who think the environmental “wackos” are crazy - please
read this article then watch the video– if it doenst turn your stomach
youre not human
http://www.inl.co.nz/environment/2008/plasticjunkyard.html
Interesting to see how all the same people who got us in this mess to begin with (ie Realtors, Mortgage Brokers) always say that the market is going to improve soon while the unbiased economists and reporters says we still have a long ways to go. Let me guess, who am I going to believe? This guy who is trying to sell me a loan or my own eyes?
I can guarantee you that this guy was saying the same thing last year and the year before.
None of these realtors/mortgage brokers ever mention that unemployment in OC is the worst in the past 10 years and that you can lower mortgage rates to 0 but if you don’t have a job, you can’t qualify for a loan or a refinance. Employment is the most important factor in the housing market.
Interesting to see how all the same people who got us in this mess to begin with (ie Realtors, Mortgage Brokers) always say that the market is going to improve soon while the unbiased economists and reporters says we still have a long ways to go. Let me guess, who am I going to believe? This guy who is trying to sell me a loan or my own eyes?
I can guarantee you this guys was saying the same thing last year and the year before. Always a great time to buy for mortgage brokers.
Funny they never mention anything about OC unemployment being the worst in the past 10 years. What do you think that is going to do to the housing market?
I’m sure Mr.Rich is expecting extraterrestrials to come buy houses in Orange County, since Russian “oligarkhs” are in worst mess to do that…
Few comments:
1. Again we see someone tie the recovery of housing onto low mortgage rates. Low rates give the illusion of affordable housing (just like the when the housing bubble was blown up), but once they rise (and believe me they will rise soon — government no matter how hard they try will not be able to keep these low for long), what will that do to housing? On top of the economy?
No, fundamentals have less to do with mortgage rates but more with pricing, economy and affordability. Sure mortgage rates play a role but this will not the the housing ’stimulus’ they are looking for.
2. Funny, just listened to a radio news show which highlighted Lawrence Yun’s plead for a government bailout to entice new buyers into the market. Apparently he doesn’t believe that housing will be able to recover on its own without a government bailout — hmmm….does this mean he is actually bearish about housing’s ability to recover? Sounds a little blasphemous in bull circle talk.
3. Also interesting article in LA Times today:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-housing27-2008dec27,0,2977789.story
“UCLA economist Edward E. Leamer said further government action to stop foreclosures was essential for putting the brakes on falling home values.
“When you’re sick you need medicine for the disease, not the symptoms,” he said.
In housing, the disease is the deterioration of neighborhoods and home values as houses are foreclosed, abandoned and sold at greatly reduced prices, said Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.
He proposes creating a government agency to manage foreclosed or distressed houses as rentals for several years to keep the homes occupied until they recover some of their lost value.
“We need to eliminate vacancies and bring about their orderly sale,” rather than allow lenders to get rid of empty houses at fire-sale prices.”
— The more I read Edward Leamer’s ‘forecasts’ on housing, the more I am convinced that he must have some side investments in real estate himself and probably doesn’t want housing to go down. Really, they are not ‘forecasts’ in what he thinks WILL HAPPEN in the future, they are subtle ‘pleas’ to the government hoping someone will listen and take into account his opinion for what he WANTS TO HAPPEN in housing.
When he says you need medicine for the disease — it sounds good, except he is not clear on what the disease is. He believes it is foreclosures and the blight it causes on neighborhoods, when it really is the unsustainable illusion that housing prices went up as high as they did because their inherent value went up. It was simply a speculative bubble. The illusion is simply bursting. How can an educated economist be so blind or in denial of this fact?
Anyways, UCLA has been dead wrong on their forecast for this recession anyways…they’re stlil in disbelief that they got it so wrong in their being “no recession”.
Dear Snacker, I totally agree with you on Mr. Leamer, since last several years I follow his “forcasts” . He reminds me Mr. Madoff. The only thing is hard for me to comprehend, how those idiots got into the NAZDAQ, UCLA Anderson forcasts?
No offense to the blogger, but these interviews are boooorrrrring!
I need a new hobby…
snacker– excellent points– all you have to do is look
at the track record for realtors and “economists” to
see how out of touch with reality they are– and the killer
part is they have the nerve to keep making forecasts–
in public forums none the less- unfriggin real
Based on what’s already happening now and what’s predicted to happen over the next 2-3 years. (More job losses and 8-10 million more foreclosures), I’d say any expert that predicts a recovery of home prices is smoking something funny. Until the foreclosures drop to near nothing, and the supply is resold (2-4 years I’m guessing) there can’t possibly be any recovery. The loans that caused this bubble aren’t coming back in the next few years to save the market. The more the government does to make loan servicers modify mortgages, and artificially prevent foreclosures, the longer it will take for the “recovery” to begin, and it will just tighten the mortgage credit markets even more. Why would anyone (company, fund, etc.) invest in US mortgages when they worry the government will illegally change the contract after the signing? People need to realize that anything being done to so-called “help” the market right now will have negative effects as well, and might do more harm than good. There is no way to prevent this mess from happening, the only thing that will happen is things will run their course and maybe by 2012+ there will be real good news to report. Maybe the market prices will start going up by a reasonable 2-3% by then. No more option arm neg am loans = no more 15%+ yearly appreciation in OC. Sorry baby boomers who tied your retirement to your stucco palace. Investments just don’t go up 300+ in 6-years without fraud or a ponzi scheme being involved. Just ask Bernard Madoff.
Usually 10 to 15% of homebuyers are first time buyers which are mostly renters who get job promotions or wage increase or young couples or individuals who get new jobs and employment or people who immigrate to the area but with current economy and job market, there is no way that renters can get wage increase or young couples get high paying jobs to afford home purchasing. I don’t think people are moving to southern California from other states at this time due to lack of jobs and high cost of living. I think more people are moving out. The only chance for the first time homebuyers who have no rich parents is to win a lottery ticket.
The rest of homebuyers besides the first time homebuyers are those who already have homes but they want to move to better, larger homes for many reasons. They may get larger family, they may get tired of the neighborhood, they may get higher income or they want to be closer to work, other family member, children schools. The average years for homeowners to keep their homes has been 7 years but it has been shorter between 2003 and 2007 because the prices were increasing so high that motivated people to sell their existing homes and replace them with larger and better ones.
The last half of 2006 and first of half of 2007 were a crossroad for real estate market in Southern California. Homeowners who marketed their homes in the crossroad period and sold them found out that the prices were not going up any more. It was the time that most smart and knowledgeable homebuyers stopped buying because it was at the beginning of sub-prime collapse and the housing bubble burst. In few months. After 6 to 12 months, they noticed that they could buy their own home for 30% less form what they sold it earlier or they could buy a home that were thinking to buy a year earlier for 30% less. Those left over homebuyers from 2oo6-2007 who sold their homes at the peak were the ones who bought lower price homes in 2008. Those homebuyers who were waiting for lower prices couldn’t wait longer when they saw 30-40% price decline in 2008 and bought them in row and that was the main reason the volume of sales in 2008 were higher than 2007. This is not going to be true in 2009 or after because there are no leftover homebuyers with cash from previous years waiting to buy. Existing homeowners are not in mood to sell their homes in 40% lower than 2 years and buy more expensive homes and pay more property tax on the top of that. With the current job market and the economic recession, there is no prospect for new homebuyers coming into the market. I think, this realtor is either fantasizing or just tries to mislead the public as usual.
http://tonyarcieri.org/images/pr0n/picard-facepalm.jpg
The PROBLEM is that home prices became detached from incomes. As a consequence responsible people have been priced out of the market. The only solution is to allow prices to decend back to where incomes will support them. The problem is not falling prices and rising foreclosures. The problem is that responsible people with reasonable incomes cannot afford to purchase a home at the current inflated prices.
The cause of all of this was availability of unsustanable loan products (arms, Option arms, etc) and the complete absence of underwriting. Taking the tax dollars of responsible people who exercised restraint on programs that keep homes from becoming affordable is completely unfair totally idiotic.
Those who exercised restraint and purchased within their means with responsible loan products are not under any threat of losing their homes due to falling prices. Those that are impacted by falling prices need to go back to renting.
I’m sorry that folks who made poor purchase decision are having problems. But these are problems of their own making.
dont worry dont fret ben bernanke has everything under control
he’s already working on his next plan to prevent the great depression
part two…. theres just one minor problem.. it wont work and heres why….
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Is this guy goofy? OC home prices aren’t even close to the bottom. We’ll see the real drop when the economy takes a dump by next summer…and I mean a real dump. It’s going to be difficult to maintain high values when the people paying the mortgages are standing in a soup line for their next meal.
Sorry Mr. Cosner, but you’ll continue to eat ramen in 09.
Dream on.
the 40 year mortgages by FHA and Fannie and Freddie is replacing part of the old funny money. The fed will loosen things up a bit more in a few months. Also, with 3.5% FHA down payment requirement, it is cheaper to buy than rent in below $350,000 price range. The writing is on the wall!
No wonder NationalBubble is posting three times in a row:)
Folks, it’s gonna be a 3-5 year down cycle for real estate. 3 Years ago, we could not charge enough for real estate, today we can’t discount it fast enough. It’s just more of the same cycle.
Don’t believe a realtor. This guys are sales people on comission. I have heard over the last 3 years that the market would recover at all different tines and they have all been wrong. I would make no predictions at this time since what’s happening currently is the perfect storm and there is not much to compare it except the depression. if the unemployment continues to increase its going to take a long time to recover. Yes intrest rates are coming down but people can’t refi they don’t have the equity any more to meet the newer stricter guidelines. It’s a disaster.
Never trust a realtor or loan broker! The paper needs to interview people who don’t have financial gain, otherwise you only get self-serving answers!!!
Realtors and Loan Brokers are OBSOLETE! The internet has replaced those losers!!!
Many experts down expect the housing market in the BUBBLE STATES to turn around until at least 2011. Only fools think otherwise!
Shane Says:
December 27th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
“the 40 year mortgages by FHA and Fannie and Freddie is replacing part of the old funny money.”
Replacing old funny money with new funny money? 40 year mortgages so that people will be renting forever…
“The fed will loosen things up a bit more in a few months.”
How many tax cuts ago did you hope for this loosening to occur?
“Also, with 3.5% FHA down payment requirement, it is cheaper to buy than rent in below $350,000 price range. The writing is on the wall!”
When does this nightmare end? No, not the spectre of a new bubble. But the fact that those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it?
I can understand your doubts and frustration. But to sit here and blame Realtors and Loan Brokers is absurd. Most here need to check their grammar. Openminded, you sound like you are completly Closeminded. Enlightenment, you really do need a lot of ENLIGHTENMENT. NationalBubble, you need to just quit being bitter and get a job, you have too much time on your hands. Snacker, read your forever long last sentence of your post, and tell me who the educated person is. Rants, you are living up to your name. I agree with Snoopy!!! :)
It’s easy to spot the apartment dwellers.
Amanda Says:
December 28th, 2008 at 12:21 am
“It’s easy to spot the apartment dwellers.”
I agree: those who aren’t underwater from purchasing OC RE within the last 5 years.
Anytime I see a dumb story about RE and I look at the writer, ten of ten time is by Lansner. “Monkey See Monkey Do”, Lansner Hear Monkey Write”. No Brainer.
I own real estate as of 7-months ago and tell you the truth about what is going to happen. If you choose not to believe it you’re the one who will lose out. This is not about who owns and who rents. It’s about common sense economics. Too bad about 90% of American doesn’t understand basic economics like living within your means instead of off credit and equity. The people getting foreclosed on in OC are people or families who should have realized that they could not afford to buy a house in OC because prices had gone up way too high. (There are few exceptions of people who lost their job and honestly cannot find another one and that number is growing and only getting worse.) They used the gimick option arm loans, stated income loans etc. and are now paying the price. They should have sucked up their pride and moved to a surrounding county which is 60% cheaper and either drive to work in OC or get a job closer to home.
its even easier to spot the underwater homedebtors-
poor fools I almost feel sorry for them—almost
>“It’s easy to spot the apartment dwellers.”
I>> agree: those who aren’t underwater from purchasing OC RE within the last 5 years.
Apartment Dwellers, and everyone who paid off their house and laugh a the fools that paid too much for houses.
What these RE people need to do is quote each other that way they can show proof.
Getting back to $ making ideas for RE agents. When doing an open house try to sell candy bars. I’ve seen this work by inner city supermarkets with kids selling candy bars. Some of these ideas can be combined, such as selling candy and magazines.
The only solution U.S. Govt has had over the last decade after every bubble bursting was to create another one. They are going to do it again with regards to RE. It’s being the wrong policy is another story but the facts are facts. You can’t fight the FED. The prices are gradually going back up starting in 3rd quarter of 2009 whether we think it’s right or wrong!! You can be idealistic and sit back and rent the rest of your lives or just play the hands you are dealt and make the best of it for your financial situation.
As stated above. I never see these brokers/realtors say anything about incomes or the huge increase in job losses. Even if you can get a 3.5% down FHA loan…many dont even have that much in savings. Also, why would you want to put 3.5% down, only to lose it based upon a possible 6% drop in prices as mentioned by the CAR. I think this amount will be even greater.
The purchase of a 350K home, may be close to renting the same size home, but not likely the same quality or in the best of neighborhoods. So it isnt likely that it is better to rent then buy in relation to quality of life.
That being said, I dont think that someone that makes an income that only affords them a 350K home should expect to live in the nicest parts of the OC, but at least a home that is in a safe neighborhood.
Even with these prices declines, incomes are still not high enough for people to be able to afford these homes with the current loans that are available. The FHA loans, are limited on the types of homes you can purchase. Jobs are vanishing and incomes are declining. Look at all the employees that work for OC. Many will be losing their jobs or be taking a 5 to 10% pay cut.
I just dont see how prices wont continue to decline with the current economic climate.
Samson,
You can buy newer 3 bedroom townhomes (built in 1996) in gated communities in Aliso Viejo, minutes from Laguna Beach for around $350. They were going for $600 two years ago. These are 2002 prices. The same unit is renting for $2,200 easily right now.
Nothing but yellow journalism….The OCR is filled with such articles daily.
Alt-A negative amortization resets coming soon. Those people are really toast.
Shane Says:
December 28th, 2008 at 10:02 am
“The only solution U.S. Govt has had over the last decade after every bubble bursting was to create another one. They are going to do it again with regards to RE. It’s being the wrong policy is another story but the facts are facts. You can’t fight the FED.”
No, the Fed is not this omnipotent force that you claim it to be. With rates down to .5%, the Fed has almost used up its resources. And yet, credit has not loosened up, and the economic is further spiralling downward.
“The prices are gradually going back up starting in 3rd quarter of 2009 whether we think it’s right or wrong!! You can be idealistic and sit back and rent the rest of your lives or just play the hands you are dealt and make the best of it for your financial situation.”
Care to submit evidence in this price rebound? Most economists are forecasting further economic pain ahead in 2009. Several of them are saying that prices will be flat at best.
Price of Bad Tidings,
Don’t rely on these “economists” too much. Weren’t they projecting a $200 oil prices and $6 gasoline by Christmas only 4 months ago? They change their views constantly. They upgrade stocks at their highs with buy ratings, and downgrade them when they are at their lows and tell people to sell them! They just react to the news at the time like every one else!
let me get out my wigi board too……
what else would a Prudential California Realty agent say.
This hail mary type of ad is hype. People still losing jobs and forclosures still high. In 1991 the same thing happened. It took until 2000 when people could buy homes in any major way. This is much worse.
btw. I laugh at my realty friends that were spurning me in their fancy cars selling 30 homes a month 2 years ago. They are broke living in rented homes now cocktail waitresses serving me! These are the same people planning now in articles like this.
Prices are coming down more. NO way in hell home prices will rebound in 2009. All indicators are pointing down. Home prices will come down. Rent prices will come down. Wages have not caught up to home prices. Even if interest rates were 2%, the vast majority of Americans cannot afford home prices as they are now. American consumers are broke and tapped out of easy credit from home equity ATM and credit cards. This artificial housing bubble was due to easy credit and no doc loans. We will see prices come back down to 1998 prices, at least before we see any significant price increase. And when we do see any price increase, it will NOT be a V bottom. No way. We will see a L bottom where prices will stay flat for a while before we see any big price increase… so buyers have plenty of time to do their homework and buy when the time is right. Time is not right any time in 2009, maybe in 2010 or 2011. 2010 is being very optimistic, more likely 2011-2013 before we see any moderate price increase.
shane/ken- you guys have been wrong for the past two years–
here comes number three….talk about being SOS
for those that live in the real world- and need proof
that california is sitting on a ticking
economic time bomb- thanks to the fools that run this
state and the idiots that vote them in… thanks
again oh real men of genius this bankruptcys for you
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/california-implodes-in-multiple-ways.html
rants,
Now I see why you’re so misguided. It’s all these articles from the radical websites with specific agendas you read that’s brainwashing you. Try some normal objective sources for a while. These websites make you believe the entire country is broke and the sky is falling and everybody is about to go hungry, etc……. We have heard these gloom and doom stories before, right after 911 back in 2001, they were talking about the world coming to an end, but guess what, the RE prices resumed their increase in Spring 2002. It’s the same old story with different elements now!!
This guy made some good points about decreasing inventory. Yes sales bottomed out in 2007 and with falling inventory and increasing sales it is very likely we will see a rebound in 2010. Expect to see 3,500 homes sold in OC by June 2009 which would be close to the historic average.
My house in Huntington Beach went down to 989k just several months ago. I paid 860k in 2003. Today it is worth 1.3 million. The experts were the same people who said the market upturn would last forever. Whatever they say should not be taken seriously.
Shane, what exactly in Mish’s piece about California is “radical” ?
Are you saying what he is writing about is not true?
Or maybe you’d care to explain what his “agenda” is.
Bogey,
Remember, the biggest run up in RE prices was shortly after OC was bankrupt in 90’s and after one of the biggest recessions!!
That was due to vehicles like easy money and exotic loans which were structured to allow unqualified buyers to qualify temporarily.
Those vehicles are no longer available.
Without them, what else will enable a reflation of prices without income to support those prices?
http://www.vvdailypress.com/news/housing_10125___article.html/markets_roar.html
Helen,
The market has as much chance of “Roaring back in 09″ as pigs flying out of my you know where. It looks like 09 is going to make you wish for the good old days of 08.
LOLLL!!! at your link MulliganHelenhead.
Nothing mentioned about Cal State law foreclosure moratorium and its coming expiration.
Don’t you just love it when Shockng throws out a forecast with absolutely no basis?
“Expect to see 3,500 homes sold in OC by June 2009 which would be close to the historic average.”
On what basis would the market get back to 3,500 units sold?
I suppose if foreclosures double, so I take it back Shockng. If prices fall another 50%, you could be correct.
Somehow I think you believe prices will rise AND sales volume will increase. What econ class was that in please?
Marcia, 2,700 homes were selling during the fall of 08 with tight lending standards. Prices have come down allowing first time buyers to get in the game. Expecting sales to keep increasing is not as far fetched as you would like people to believe. Lets not forget interest rates are down. If I remember correctly you and a few others were already making “disclaimers” for the potential sales increase we are likely to see this spring/summer. If that’s not damage control I don’t know what is. Or call it a pre-emptive strike.
Shane Says:
December 28th, 2008 at 11:20 am
“Don’t rely on these ‘economists’ too much. Weren’t they projecting a $200 oil prices and $6 gasoline by Christmas only 4 months ago? They change their views constantly. They upgrade stocks at their highs with buy ratings, and downgrade them when they are at their lows and tell people to sell them! They just react to the news at the time like every one else!”
That’s why the economists that I do pay attention to are “pro-active” instead of “reactive”. Whereas their colleagues have only recently fallen into line, bears such as Roubini warned about the RE bubble years before. These “trailblazers” are far from optimistic about he fureture as you are (i.e. a RE bottom around 2010). The past bubbles did not tear at the core of our economy, the financial industry, like this one has.
Yes, there will be a time when all the doom and gloom will be unfounded. But you have yet to explain your projection of a 2009 recovery logically. Considering that RE led us into this mess, it’s doubtful that it will lead out of it.
Bogey - exactly- mish has an agenda? what would this
agenda be? hes a radical? I guess if stating the truth
is radical youre right- ken prefers listening to politicians
and other realtors- which explains why hes so clueless
to reality- poor guy
Marcia,
I think shockg’s basis comes from the 2009 unemployment report.
You see, shockg thinks people will be able to buy homes only after they’re laid off.
He’s a very bright realtor.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/22/news/economy/companies_cost_cutting/index.htm?postversion=2008122215
Bill,
I met a person that knows you personally. He said you’ve been trying to buy RE in the last two months but your credit score wasn’t good. He said you’re trying to talk the market down in this blog so it gives you time to improve your credit to buy as soon as possible. Is that true?
Here’s a must read article from the President of Foreclosures.com
http://blog.foreclosures.com/
Here’s another interesting article on dropping inventory levels.
http://secure2.thestreet.com/cap/login/rm_mbp_dyn_v2.jsp?flowid=58a346f124&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestreet.com%2Fp%2F_search%2Frmoney%2Ftcrescenziblog%2F10454696.html
Shane,
I met a person that knows you personally. He said you’ve been trying to short sell one of your properties at a 40% loss and that you’re foreclosing on the other one.
He said you are trying desperately to deceive as many people as possible about real estate in the hopes that you can offload your predicament onto someone else’s lap.
He said your plan is not working because you cannot find anyone as dumb as you were.
He also said you’re just another laid off realtor.
He has said some other stuff about you that I can’t repeat on this blog.
He’s a pretty smart guy….huh!
Shane,
I did a search on redfin. There are no homes for 350K that are 3 bedrooms in Aliso Viejo built after 1995. There are 17 3 bedrooms of around 380 3 bedrooms available. There are also about 9 2 bedrooms built after 95 that are available. I guess my point is sure, there are some homes available. There are not that many built after 95 that are equal to what people pay in rent. Prices still need to fall further.
I guess it is possible that there are REO’s and Short sales that are only shown on fancy Realtor listings that you have access to.
Bill,
Don’t be so angry. All you do is insult people. I don’t blame you for your frustration !! Try Yoga and try to buy a home soon so you can calm down a little!! satisfy your pent up demand:) I hope you can improve your FICO score soon and stop fantasizing about people’s jobs. That will not get you a home you’re so hungry for at 1945 price! Just kidding!! Stop grinding your teeth !!!
I’m not angry that people like you are losing their home.
You tried to scam the system and now you have to pay.
You are the one who’s angry! :)
One simple common comment people:
“If you don’t buy in a buyers market, when should you buy?” All of the negative comments are clearly people who don’t see the opportunities in markets like this and will be the geniuses who wait until a sellers market to buy. How does that make sense…. Oh, because they want the home to be an instant cash machine rather than what it was and is intended to be… A long term investment that ensures an individual can retire without a huge housing payment. I’ll pose the question to all of the negative nannies out there… where do you live? How much do you pay to rent? What is your long term real estate strategy? 5 years of rent at $3000 month is $180,000 lost! Not to mention you end up starting 5 years late paying on your 30 year mortgage that is now 9%. Why not buy today at 5% and negotiate a steal while you can? You say, because they don’t have jobs… Well I never tried to buy anything when I didn’t have a job so they need to focus elsewhere for now. And that just makes me as a buyer more powerful. So if you have a job, an income, good credit, and some money to put down, I’d be all over a market that is named after you, the buyer “buyers market”!
Stop panicing folks. Keep your eye on the ball. Real Estate has always been intended as a long term investment that provided freedom in our later years. The problem is everyone all of a sudden thought they were Donald Trump and became short term speculators/investors/gamblers. Myself included.
Finally… Blaming the Realtors and Loan Officers is like blaming McDonalds because you are overweight or have high blood pressure. Have we all really lost our sense of individual responsibility in this country?
Millionaires will be made in markets like this and I plan to be one of them!
Well said Brad!
Unfortunately, a blog intended to offer some insight into the real estate market of 2009 is used instead for playground bullies to beat up on each other and those who are offering their expertise.
What many of the naysayers are missing is the truth in the numbers. Inventory is down SIGNIFICANTLY over same period 2007. Yes - prices are down too but the number of sales units has increased dramatically.
There are two major buyer groups right now… those taking advantage of FHA 3.5% down payments with income to make the payments and those with big bucks sitting in the bank (and I mean Joe and Sue Normal who have banked their equity from selling 2 years ago or have been on a strict budget waiting for this market) jumping in to get the home of their dreams.
Somewhere we lost sight of the fact that our homes were for raising our kids, celebrating holidays, planting trees, marking the kids growth on the door frame and grilling in the backyard with friends. If that is why you are buying a HOME, whether a foreclosed bargain or the mansion on the hill you thought you could never own - THIS IS YOUR MARKET!