Hahn
The current recession will be the nation’s longest and deepest since the Great Depression, resulting in perhaps 2 million more people losing their jobs and 8 million to 10 million additional homeowners losing their properties, Irvine real estate economist Walter Hahn forecast recently.
Hahn said he bases his conclusions on the jobs outlook “since employed people are the foundation of our economy.”
Among the consequences Hahn foresees:
- The loss of 2 million-plus more jobs, many in the first quarter of 2009 after a disastrous holiday season for retailers and manufacturers.
- A downward spiral caused by reduced consumer spending, resulting in more job losses, thus in further reductions in consumer spending.
- A continuing flood of home-loan payment adjustments that will result in additional defaults and foreclosures through 2011. “I have seen estimates of 8 million – 10 million foreclosures before all the home loan excesses are purged from the market.”
- Further drops in home prices due to continuing tide of foreclosures.
- Commercial real estate entering the rearly stages of a recession that won’t hit bottom until 2010. “The resulting drop in new construction will result in more job losses.”
Hahn, a consultant who advises homebuilders, wrote:
“We are suffering the consequences of 25 years of spending more than we earn and produce – by consumers, companies and government – and borrowing trillions of dollars to finance the difference. We have been on a 25 year debt binge but now the party is over and we have to endure the hangover, which is this recession.”
Hahn advises that the federal government needs “to spend billions more” on investments to creat jobs quickly, such as infrastructure construction and building new homes.
For more views on the outlook for housing, see our Eyeball 2009 Q&A’s …
- CSUF dean eyes no home-price rebound until 2011
- Consultant eyes flat-at-best O.C. housing market
- Realtor group prez eyes housing’s opportunities
- Pimco’s Simon eyes O.C. home price bottom in late 2009
- Outgoing Realtor prez eyes O.C. rebound by summer
- Tell us what O.C. home prices will do in 2009
In other real estate news…
xtra xtra read all about it- hahn finally sees the light–
this guy is just finding out about this?
wasnt he bullish just last year? our
debt to gdp is now over 300%- three hundred percent–
that is nothing short of mind-boggling-
if things are as bad as he says- and I agree
that they are- how is he seeing a 2010 rebound-
sorry but the hole weve dug is gonna take longer
than that to fill a lot longer- this downturn will be unlike
any other weve experianced- even the 1930’s– I highly
recommend reading this article– it explains alot–
http://market-ticker.org/
I’ve been watching for this guy . . . I remember reading his absurdly belligerent cheerleading for the IE a number of years ago . . . even when there were huge cracks forming under that market.
Here is a gem from 2005 regarding OC :
“. . . home prices have no place to go but up. As much as 10% a year for the next decade. And, yes, if you do the math, that will push the median price well beyond $1 million . . . “
Read the source document below, particularly the first two paragraphs. Keep in mind that he a ‘real estate expert’, supplying economic information services for the real estate industry. (Wonder if he carries malpractice insurance).
If these were the “good old days”, we’d have taken this prophet outside the gates and thrown rocks at him till he could no longer mislead the public.
Not to say that he is ‘off’ with his current perspective, just that he doesn’t have a record of high accuracy in past projections . . . and seems to be an “expert” at describing the present situation (duh) and saying that it will continue (double duh).
http://www.walterhahn.com/news1.pdf
http://www.walterhahn.com/news.html
I wonder if the ocr gets its climate experts from the same “expert pool”?
“…and building new homes.” because after all, we really could use more housing right now… I suppose this is the same constituency that wants subsidies to sell the inventory of homes that they already built?
By “economist” presumably what he means is “lobbyist” or “fraud.” Take your pick.
rants is spending all his Christmas on this blog. If that’s not a sign that he’s panicking, I don’t know what is!!
What are you talking about Shane?? You are posting here on Christmas too. Weirdo.
Shane you got it wrong, again and again.
Shane Says:
December 25th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
rants is spending all his Christmas on this blog. If that’s not a sign that he’s panicking, I don’t know what is!!
Another sign that Rants is panicking is the boner he is getting over a 1930’s despression, which will never happen. Hey Rants, Where’s your twin Hwood? lol
This “expert” has been consistently wrong. Poor guy is washed up and is clearly trying over-compensate for his previous bullish projections. He is wrong again. The guy has been on the wrong track for several years now.
the only ones whove been wrong
even more than hahn — shane and shockg –
maybe we’ll call you guys the new three stooges–
shane can be moe and shockg can be curley and
hahn will be larry– yuk yuk yuk yuk
the stooges became popular during
the great depression- how ironic
Walter Hahn took his head out of the sand last year. Back then I had hopes that shockg would, but instead he has seen his home drop around 20% in value. Now we have Shane, who just now stuck his head in the sand when everyone who has taken econ 101 and maybe never passed, is or has taken their head out of the sand. Shane thinks he is being contrarian, but clearly he is clueless.
Merry Christmas bears, you once again are blessed with the present of the bulls that have been, and will be wrong next year. We will have another happy new year watching them be wrong, and watching them disappear when the reality hits them. At least shockg will show up, and be wrong like he was in 2008, 2007, and 2006. The one thing about him… he has been consistent. I’m surprised he is not angrier than he is, since he has been so… so… terribly wrong for three years now. I wouldn’t even wish the pain of buying in 2005 on shockg, even though he did buy then. 2009 will bring another year of bears being right, and bulls being wrong. Good times.
Looks like Graphprix is still loitering around the courthouse with his pants around his ankles and a big bag of candy in his hand. Hey graphprix, Why don’t you ever address the mix of homes selling that is skewing the median. Because it doesn’t support your greedy agenda. Why don’t you make a prediction for us. Instead of focusing on the bottom heavey median, why dont you tell us when the more desireable areas of OC will drop significantly? Here’s a New Years tip. Get a real job so your not so dependent on housing to make a living.
People who got it right….and their predictions.
http://caps.fool.com/blogs/viewpost.aspx?bpid=122769&t=01000420523245711617
That is that folks, listen to them and don’t be surprised. My call on the bottom is when rents and buying become the same or better to buy. With rents now dropping I suspect we are years and years away from the “bottom”. I would like to know what the expectations are after we hit this proverbial bottom. Do people then suspect we will have double digit growth and ponzi schemes happening again….well we always have Social Security.
shockg Says:
December 26th, 2008 at 7:53 am
“Looks like Graphprix is still loitering around the courthouse with his pants around his ankles and a big bag of candy in his hand.”
Woah buddy. Leave your fantasies out of this!