What will happen in 2009 for local real estate? We’ll help your guess.
We’ll be asking local insiders — and keen observers — what they think in our third annual holiday-time forecast explosion. Think of Eyeball 2009 as our holiday gift to you! Two weeks of outlooks on local real estate conditions! A new view every day at noon through Jan. 6!
If course, your opinion is important, too. So you get the vote in the poll below — and don’t be shy about placing your comments and any or all of our daily housing outlook Q&As.
O.C. median price in 2009 ...
And, median, we mean the DataQuick all-residences median, December to December!
Down 10+, is in the bag . . . it will do this in the first 4 months
Q1, down
Q2, down,
Q3, up slightly
Q4, down to 98 levels
Who cares what happens to these home prices. I’m moving to Iowa.
Best public schools in America, low unemployment, clean, and friendly.
Homes, $150,000
3% appreciation a year, never up too high and never down. Sounds like they still have COMMON SENSE
pop quiz time– what is the most important aspect of the economy
that will affect house prices– JOBS– without those- interest rates
dont mean diddly squat– sorry permarealtors we are bleeding jobs
and that my friends assures beyond a doubt– lower prices– period
http://ocbiz.freedomblogging.com/2008/12/19/oc-unemployment-rate-hits-14-year-high/6934/
Lansner,
Please bring back Gary Watts!! That would be the greatest gift of all!
up 20% in 2009
Rant….right on….add to the “jobs” problem is that the is a (supply/demand) shortage of “qualified buyers”….unfortunately we are not a nation of savers, and it is apparent hold (credit) responsiblity in low regards. Take the jobs, lack of qualified buyers, more stringent underwriting and comming “re-sets” on the 5/1 Arms made in after 2005 and we are going to have a ton more of home supply that is already close to 1 year in inventory.
LOL @ the 25 people (so far) who chose “UP 10%”
David Lereah, he’s da man! Ask him!
who r the jokers who think UP 10%+?
Looks like 100 voters got it right so far. up 10% + in 09.
Those that are “hoping” prices will rise 10% are those that are going to learn the toughest lesson of all. Realtors and Mortgage lenders.
90% the prognosticators in Eyeball 08 said it is a great time to buy and the market will hit bottom, sounds just like all the Brokers in the Stock market. Look, lets face it, all these industry “experts” have a vested interest trying to sell, and painting a rosy picture in the market. According to them it is always a good time to buy!
“Johnson Rogers Says:
December 21st, 2008 at 8:43 am
90% the prognosticators in Eyeball 08 said it is a great time to buy and the market will hit bottom, sounds just like all the Brokers in the Stock market. Look, lets face it, all these industry “experts” have a vested interest trying to sell, and painting a rosy picture in the market. According to them it is always a good time to buy!”
You could say that same thing about all the market timing speculators on this blog. They all have a vested interest in prices going down.
Shockg
The vested interest we have is the survival and health of our economy…for us individually yes, but collectively as a whole as well. Your attitude is this “screw everyone else, I got mine!” type of attitude. Screw the young professionals who can’t buy a house because at least YOU have your precious unearned bubble equity right?
This isn’t a daytrading housing-speculation attitude that you are seeing. It’s people waking up and realizing that a much larger PERCENT of their paycheck will go toward housing today than it would have 8 years ago. We refuse to purchase your ridiculously overpriced home.
Richard Head is exactly that. There is no way housing prices will turn around in 2009. The only properties people will buy are those that are discounted.
Brain aka Lee the lunatic, nice rah rah speach. We hear the same tired speach from you on a daily basis.
How funny that anyone would think its remotely possible for homes to go up in 09, especially 10%+. Are they aware how long it took the California market to go up 10% after the last downturn in 91-95? 4 years to bottom and how many to get back up 10%? 3 years? If the bottom were to happen, even by the end of 09, we would be looking at at least 2011 for up 10%.
The second wave of foreclosures hasen’t even hit. I hope it doesn’t go down another 10% in OC, but I wouldn’t bet against it.
It’s really VERY simple economics…
The problem is not the FALL in prices - It was the artificial RISE in prices. And the rise was due to EASY credit. That easy credit increased people’s ability to pay more for the house, so the prices ROSE based on easy credit. Investors bought those lousy loans, and the problem continued.
That Said…
Prices will continue to CORRECT back to 1999 levels - AND they may artificially bump below that to maybe 1998 levels for a short time. Prices will roll on for a decade (or a little more) in the 1999 - 2001 levels.
My opinion, of course.
shockg,
You are a cheerleader for Realtors. Common sense dictates that no one can afford OC homes at current prices with verified incomes and down payments.
Cheer away, but soon you will be upside down.
I have mine, who cares about the rest. Kind of like when the Germans took the Jews… no one cared because it wasn’t them. People here don’t hope for the worse, but you don’t care if it gets bad because you won’t be effected… you have yours.
We all want to own a home, we who sat by and waited want things to fall in line with norma… and that’s where it’s going.
People who say 10%+ up - generally must be Gary Watts’s country cousins.–sins to practicality.
We are at the crossroad of political change. We do not know what kind of policy the new adminstration is going to implement regarding the economy, lending policy, interest rates, job markets and foreclosures. They are promising that they are going to tackle the problem that we have as soon as they got in the office and they are going to get there very soon. Lets hope they will do what they are saying now. If they did a drastic change and created jobs and stop mass foreclosures, the housing market will bottom up and stay flat in 3009 for one year and it starts to move positively. If the status qou remained intact, the prices are going to go down further and may never stop. Remember there two main factors involved in the housing market. economic factor and psychological factor. Both are working in tandem
I think there are two factors involved on this. Economy and Psychology and they both work in tandem and both need to be improved
Hey all,After 10 years in OC I moved back to the Midwest. There was no way I was paying 400k for a dump in Santa Ana. I picked up a 4 bd 2 ba brick cape cod for 139k with a giant yard & old growth tree’s. I loved OC & wanted nothing more than to stay. but get real man…. common sense has waved bye bye to everone out there. A house is not an ATM machine nor should you see 30% increase in value a year… Discipline is the word here. I still love CA but my quality of life for me & my children is better here. Sure winter sucks but hey I deal with it by snowmobiling & skiing until the golf course opens & lake Michigan warms up. Now if my Packers could just get there act together life would be set!
Down 25+% & more due to bad karma lying from REIC and posters here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Down 20+% easily
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.worst_markets.fortune/index.html