| Job slice | Oct. | Vs. ‘07 | Vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | 98,200 | -5,500 | -5.3% |
| • Construct buildings | 22,200 | -2,100 | -8.6% |
| • Heavy construction | 8,100 | -500 | -5.8% |
| • Specialty trades | 67,900 | -2,900 | -4.1% |
| Lending activities | 33,300 | -7,400 | -18.2% |
| • Bank lending | 17,600 | -1,400 | -7.4% |
| • Non-bank lending | 11,700 | -3,800 | -24.5% |
| • Lending support | 4,000 | -2,200 | -35.5% |
| Other finance | 10,500 | -500 | -4.5% |
| Real estate/leasing | 36,900 | -2,300 | -5.9% |
| • Real estate | 30,900 | -1,600 | -4.9% |
| • Leasing | 6,000 | -700 | -10.4% |
| Bldg. services | 33,100 | -100 | -0.3% |
| Building supply | 11,100 | -600 | -5.1% |
| Farm | 5,200 | +300 | +6.1% |
| All real-estate | 228,300 | -16,100 | -6.6% |
| All other O.C. jobs | 1,253,600 | -18,700 | -1.5% |
| All O.C. jobs | 1,481,900 | -34,800 | -2.3% |
It’s no longer just housing’s fault. Orange County real estate and finance bosses — from brokerages to lenders to janitors to building-supply workers to plumbers — cut 16,100 jobs in year ended in October, your blogger’s analysis of new state job stats shows.
Meanwhile, in the rest of the local economy, other bosses cut 18,700 jobs from their payrolls in the same period.
It’s been a while since real estate and finance sectors have been the “healthier” segment, job-wise, vs. the rest of the local business climate. Remember the last time real estate/finance fared best? January 2006!
(Note: All told, O.C. lost 34,800 jobs in the year ended in October; worst drop since December 1991!)
Other real estate finance job nuggets:
- Niche employed 228,300 in October — the lowest level since February 2004.
- Overall real estate and finance employment is 13% off its peak.
- Construction jobs — 98,200 in October — were 11% off their peak.
Did you see our Zippys rankings?
- Newport Coast took the biggest fall from the second quarter
- Seal Beach was ranked as Q3’s #2 zippiest market
- 5 Santa Ana ZIPs in Bottom 25
- ZIP-by-ZIP rankings HERE!
Other real estate trends …
No wonder I don’t have to wait for a table at restaurants anymore! Table for two? Right this way, sir!
The events that are occurring this year will lead to the great housing bubble crash that is going to get started next year. Anyone that thinks the minor correction that’s occurred this year is a large correction is gravely mistaken. Q3 of 2009 will be the beginning of the real correction in orange county home prices.
This holiday Season if you go into any open houses be kind to the RE agent. I usually slip them a 20 and some kind word such as “hey buddy go out and get yourself a hot meal and a shave with the money” Take pity on these poor souls.
For those who are loosing jobs, learn some new skills, which will help you to make up for the lost money. economy moves in cycles and you will get a job shortly with your new skills.
community colleges and california state universities are starting points to look at.
even though courses in sciences/engineering are difficult compared to arts/music, getting some degree in sciences/engineering will help you in long run. President elect Obama plans to increase the number of americans in these disciplines.
So please, americans, enroll in courses related to sciences/engineering. if it is too late for you, encourage your children to do it.
I also think it’s a good idea to give meals and blankets to real estate agents for the coming years…but don’t forget to give those supplies to the people who bought homes at the inflated prices - they’re going to need it too when they get foreclosed on.
OC is losing jobs left and right but Steve Thomas just called the bottom in housing for the 10th time in the past couple of years.
I guess according to realtors, employment or the lack of doesn’t matter when it comes to housing in OC. .
I think that the RE agents should have lemonade stands or sell baked goods at these open houses just to make ends meet. That or take advantage of the time to use the home for a yard sale. Im sure they have a few extra flat screens and stereo systems left over from when times were good.
I am confused about this data. Truthi said that employment in the OC was strong and that there were plenty of jobs. All of these jobs were going to bring tons of people to OC to buy up all of these homes…..I dont understand why this isnt the “truth”.
What amazes me is the 35 percent decline in Lender Support positions….Ouch!
The doomsday bloggers did this. Its all their fault.
No, I think international buyers will save the OC housing market
but wait… the rest of the world is also in a recession so that is not going to work.
oh well
Obama pledges to help governors…Dow rises 250 points!
Ford’s CEO will work for $1 a year…Dow rises 250 points!
Wow Ford and Obama working together to save the stock market. I love it!
The job data presented here (SD) shows how the trend is faring versus time.
http://voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2008/12/02/toscano/758octoberjobs112408.txt
Data like this might even convince Truthi/Provider/Thoughtful/ItsTheWeather/BlissfullyOblivious that we’ve only just begun with this depression. It is clear to me that things will hit the fan even worse this next year. As NanoWest suggests; there is no indication that we’ve been through the worst of things.
Here is how the story goes, in simple terms for the ‘real men of financial genius’ who think ’09 will be bright.
A huge majority of our countrymen habitually live on credit
This seemed like a workable idea during times when increases in home equity were ‘bringing in’ more than one’s paycheck.
We hear repeatedly “Our economy is 2/3 consumer spending”.
One can’t live on credit forever, there is an end and IT IS NOW.
‘Our’ spending, and therefore our economic activity, will ‘reset’ back much closer to what ‘we’ actually earn.
The ‘reset’ of our economy will be very severe, because it is not a temporary ‘dip’. (I hear daily how this situation is comparable to recessions of recent past - rubbish !).
Not only are we resetting back towards a level of activity we can pay for, but “we’re” going to be paying for existing mountains of debt ‘we’ already owe.
The economic impact will be a very large step downward.
Most of the people that bought within the last year and a half will walk away from their house because they will be so upside down.
Of course, we will have to give the banks trillions to renegotiate their loan that they can’t afford.
Here is an even simpler version for younger viewers (a’ la Fred Flintstone):
You’re in the habit of living like you make 130 clams
You actually only earn 100 clams,
You have an outstanding debt of 30 clams,
For the next couple lunar cycles you no longer get to borrow clams, you can only spend what you earn.
You will be spending at most 65 clams now, whereas you used to throw all 130. (Mr Slate will be charging you interest)
That is quite a decrease in standard of living, Wilma is in a funk (if she stays with you at all)
Moose lodge, Bowling alley and Drive-in have no customers and are closed
It never ceases to amaze me all of the houses that “go into escrow” just before Thanksgiving and emerge right after Thanksgiving as “fell out of escrow” or “bom”. Could it be those lying realtors playing games?
why y’all worry about the RE agents, they alwaysfind a empty house to live in for the night, they deal with houses remember….LOL.
forget 1998 prices you’ll be lucky if 1990 prices hold
theres gonna be a glut of vacant houses and condos
the likes of which weve never seen before- prices
are gonna keep droppin and theyll drag rents right
down with them–
Makes me glad I work in the mortgage business.
It appears that Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” is slapping those that have not adheared to basic economic principles.
Those that have not learned to live with in their means are the ones that will suffer the most. We need to get back to a simpler time, where you only purchased what you can afford, or could realisticly pay back in a very short period of time. Like most Americans, I have available to me tens of thousands of dollars in available credit card debt. I use less than a few hundred of it, mostly just to keep the cards active and my FICO as high as possible.
The problem with this, is who really needs tens of thousands of dollars in available credit??
With the exception of purchasing a car to get you to work and house to live in….and maybe some student loans, most people really dont need to have that much credit available. Banks need to tighten up on this.
As far as housing is concerned…too many people put all their eggs in one basket. It be like investing every penny you have in Betamax when VHS and Beta were fighting over the marketplace. You would keep your fingers crossed and hope that you make it big.
I wonder how all the investors in Krispy Cremes are doing now??
It’s just time for Americans to grow up and realize that you cant have everything you want when you want it. Stop being a bunch of spoiled little kids and earn what you want.
Once we get back to reality. We will be in much better shape for the near and distant future. If we stay on the same track we are now, we will all be paying for it in one way or another.
Just 9 years ago you could get a pretty good house for $350k - still a lot of clams. Now, even still, you can only get a crappy house in Santa Ana for 350k - yet the salaries haven’t gained anywhere near what housing did. I find it hard to believe that we aren’t going to see huge declines in values with this crappy economy. What makes realtors think they are going to stay at overinflated prices??
“What makes realtors think they are going to stay at overinflated prices??”
They don’t even believe that themselves. How many realtors do you know who are actively buying homes for themselves? I haven’t seen any for the past 2 years.
I would love to know how many houses has Steve Thomas bought for himself this past year.
Probably none.
Realtors will always try to paint a rosy picture so people don’t stop buying homes. I understand why they do that but your job as an informed home buyer is to ignore what they say and look at the facts. As you said, home prices are down 30% from the peak but they are still up 100% or more since 2000. Well, neither inflation nor salaries have gone up 100% since 2000 so home prices still have further down to go.
Also, have you noticed how banks are trying to drop the homes like a rock? Why?
If they are going to stabalize or go up in value, what’s the rush? If they wait, they can get back some of their money - right? Obviously, most people are fearing that the values will continue to decline.
Like some others here have pointed out, there hasn’t been much substantive Bull cheer-leading lately. I keep looking for news regarding how an economic rebound is in nigh. Does anybody have any “silver lining” news stories or analysis to share? (you know - holiday cheer)
To help inspire the Bulls to hang in there and dream, I’ve synthesized some (recycled/pre-chewed) seed stories … maybe they can fill in the blanks and even add to the list:
1. Obama is going to have an economic ‘team for hope and change’ IN PLACE which will HIT THE GROUND RUNNING in late January. “Corrective” legislation will be COMPREHENSIVE AND SWIFT, and consumer confidence will rebound !
2. Once the backlog of foreclosed houses are cleared in * “middle 2009”, the housing market will be gravy again like before. (The unabridged version of this story is sweet enough to read to young kids before bedtime).
3. Obama will “pull the troops immediately” * *, saving the U.S. government billions in Afghanistan and Iraq expenditures. World peace will be ASSURED when we send a well respected woman * * * to build larger coalitions # and ‘repair our image abroad’. Iran will probably mothball their centrifuges WITHIN DAYS after they meet with the new administration.
4. Green energy program funding, and government funded embryonic stem cell bucks (yeah!) will fall on California like manna. Our colleges will SWIFTLY convert former mortgage brokers, sales clerks, communications majors, others . . . into engineers and biologists to start assembling our new utopia. The RAPID AND CERTAIN return-on-investment from these Government Sponsored Enterprises will inspire full-blown change in other industries … just like other advanced socialist countries have.
5. Could someone please fill in the blank here (or post an actual story) about how socialized medicine is going to boost our standard of living and our economy?
6. ?
* Arbitrary date thrown in here that ignores continued Sub-prime defaults, not to mention ramping Alt-A, Prime, and Job-loss bloodshed.
* * Actually I meant “in 16 months” .. . well actually those troops will be home in . . . we’ll let you know later - when we know.
* * * She’s an experienced U.S. Senator, wife of world famous high profile ex president / adulterer. They are VERY popular in the “rest of the world”, according to Sax Player International, NPR, and CNN.
# Granted, they will be countries which have just barely gotten used to us sending female ambassadors, who might not be so receptive when we start sending unsightly, pushy, haggard ones. (Hey, I did NOT call her a biatch.)
Like some others here have pointed out, there hasn’t been much substantive Bull cheer-leading lately. I keep looking for news regarding how an economic rebound is in nigh. Does anybody have any “silver lining” news stories or analysis to share? (you know - holiday cheer)
To help inspire the Bulls to hang in there and dream, I’ve synthesized some (recycled/pre-chewed) seed stories … maybe they can fill in the blanks and even add to the list:
1. Obama is going to have an economic ‘team for hope and change’ IN PLACE which will HIT THE GROUND RUNNING in late January. “Corrective” legislation will be COMPREHENSIVE AND SWIFT, and consumer confidence will rebound !
2. Once the backlog of foreclosed houses are cleared in * “middle 2009”, the housing market will be gravy again like before. (The unabridged version of this story is sweet enough to read to young kids before bedtime).
3. Obama will “pull the troops immediately” * *, saving the U.S. government billions in Afghanistan and Iraq expenditures. World peace will be ASSURED when we send a well respected woman * * * to build larger coalitions # and ‘repair our image abroad’. Iran will probably mothball their centrifuges WITHIN DAYS after they meet with the new administration.
5. Could someone please fill in the blank here (or post an actual story) about how socialized medicine is going to boost our standard of living and our economy?
6. ?
* Arbitrary date thrown in here that ignores continued Sub-prime defaults, not to mention ramping Alt-A, Prime, and Job-loss bloodshed.
* * Actually I meant “in 16 months” .. . well actually those troops will be home in . . . we’ll let you know later - when we know.
* * * She’s an experienced U.S. Senator, wife of world famous high profile ex president / adulterer. They are VERY popular in the “rest of the world”, according to Sax Player International, NPR, and CNN.
# Granted, they will be countries which have just barely gotten used to us sending female ambassadors, who might not be so receptive when we start sending unsightly, pushy, haggard ones. (Hey, I did NOT call her a biatch.)
My number 4 keeps getting clipped:
4. Green energy program funding, and government funded embryonic stem cell bucks (yeah!) will fall on California like manna. Our colleges will SWIFTLY convert former mortgage brokers, sales clerks, communications majors, others . . . into engineers and biologists to start assembling our new utopia.
LOL Blood, put down the crack pipe :)
Blood, only treatment suitable for your type is lobotomy.
Jon the blogger: Are we going to limit rancor of a psycopath who is hijacking this blog for his political agenda?
BITS….6) Because Obama is not incompetent, like Bush.
Did anyone happen to notice that Bush is AWOL and Obama has had to essentially take over early as Prez because the Chimp is just busy writin’ his memwarz.
Wow, Eat it in Irvine is on a roll today.
I remember back in 2006 when all the bulls said jobs were great, just a blip in the mortgage sector. I warned that other jobs would be affected by the losses in those sectors. You know when you have the RE sector account for 60% of the job growth for 4 years, then a monkey could figure out that they will support sectors like IT, retail, auto sales, etc. Funny how another one of my common sense predictions came true. And yet there are still some bulls in denial.
Sorry for duplicate posts. This blogging software doesn’t post immediately so I try dicing it … then someone apparently approves the whole posts later .
Re: Brilliance of PEBO: I predict that people in mass will realize that Obama is indeed utterly incompetent for the role (to the tune of mid 40% approval ratings). This will happen within 18 months.
Well so far Obama seems extremely competent. In fact I cant remember a President elect that was more involved or more prepared to take over on day 1 than he is.
You to think about it. Economies are cyclical….even the bad ones, like this one is. It is very likely that things will get worse, before they get better. The standard question that will come up in 2012 is “Are you better off now, than you were 4 years ago.” The likelihood of the economy being worse off in 4 years than it is now, is fairly slim. So it shouldnt be too difficult for the economy to improve under an Obama administration. His chances of winning relection to 2012 are great, especially if he goes up against Palin.
Blood, you clearly need treatment. Don’t bring your Obama hatred or Democrate hatred to this blog. Deranged people like you can not see world in any balanced manner. This blog is about Orange County real estate. Also the thread talks about ‘OC job losses outside real estate’. So keep the discussion relevant. Looks like you can not eat, breath and talk without Obama hatred. That is why you need to seek treatment. Your efforts to highjack this blog and divert attention from main topics are not appreciated.
Who the heck is Matador and who nominated her as the blog boss?
Matador (senior bull master?)
Thanks for the suggestions, I’ll consider your recommendations.
I don’t hate Obama as you suggest. Like others have said, I suspect it might be a kick to have a beer with the guy. I’d even give him very, very, very high recommendations as a “go to” guy when you need a persuasive speech. I certainly wouldn’t consult him for economic advice, or take any of his promises seriously.
I looked for substantive rebuttal to my points (or even the implied ones), but don’t see ANY in your writing. (I guess when you have no valid counter point, you feel that your best move is to ‘attack the source’ of disagreeable content . . . and you apparently figure that is noble.) Granted, sometimes my comments go down as ‘more pointed’ than some of the others you typically find here. Consider these as ‘political cartooning’, which have the intended objective of TRYING to make people like you think (I mean, think . . . with your own mind).
I’ve noticed other vitriolic responses against people who post things that infuriate others (i.e. Someone posts a prediction of continued housing value collapse, and they’re called an ‘idiot’ or worse … ). I’m guessing you’re no different – just brave name-caller with no real grounds to defend.
I’ve got some suggestions for you. (A potentially futile move on my part which makes me look foolish, as if I think you’re intelligent enough to at least consider advice from others). Ah, never mind …
Obama names Richardson Commerce Secretary Dow jumps 170 pts.!
Blood is just pouting because he already misses Dubya. Of course if Obama were to become the second worst ever he’d still be an improvement.
As far as appearances pouting for W - nah. That would be a rational guess . . . but in truth I think W has been a bit of a washout on some critical positions. Not entirely a world class leader fitting for this nation. The good folk of this country have gotten (in Obama) what ‘they deserve’: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mm1KOBMg1Y8
Beyond that - I’m just attempting to set-up any resident foam-at-the-mouth econolibs who actually have been caught up in believing the Obamaspeak. I was hoping someone would bite, and explain how some PEBO plan was going to put the brakes on a spiraling depression. Then a few quarters from now I’d bring up the topic here again.