O.C. Oct. homebuying up 66%

November 18th, 2008, 10:02 am · 13 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner

MDA DataQuick’s final stats for October show O.C. homebuying ran above year-ago levels for the 4th straight month, a noteworthy switch after a 33-month streak of slumping sales. DataQuick says homebuying totaled 2,833 houses, condos and new residences, that’s 66% ahead of a year ago.

Please note:

History shows us that last month’s buying was 24% below the average for an October since 1988.
Last month’s sales were down 29% compared to an average month since 1988.
October sales were up 4% vs. the previous month. Sales between these two months have, on average, been down 4% since 1988.
Year-to-date, O.C. homebuying is down 43% vs. the 20-year average activity.

As for last month’s pricing, the median selling prices was $420,000 — down 27% in a year. Here’s a look a how O.C. homebuying stacks up by month, over history, and how 2008 shapes up vs. the past. (For a sortable ZIP code chart, click HERE!)

Month’s sales	‘88-’07 avg.	2007	2008	‘08 vs. avg.
January	2,737	2,400	1,286	-53.0%
February	2,838	2,449	1,471	-48.2%
March	4,078	3,130	1,663	-59.2%
April	4,017	2,682	2,166	-46.1%
May	4,198	2,675	2,266	-46.0%
June	4,531	2,641	1,930	-57.4%
July	4,137	2,391	2,799	-32.3%
August	4,362	2,285	2,713	-37.8%
September	3,894	1,643	2,667	-31.5%
October	3,724	1,700	2,833	-23.9%
November	3,430	1,567	–	–
December	3,920	1,731	–	–
Average	3,822	2,275	2,179	-43.0%

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RWeber says:

November 18, 2008 at 10 am

When You’re Drowning In Debt Taught By: Rick Warren
Date: Sunday, November 16, 2008

http://saddlebackfamily.com/mediacenter/services/currentseries.aspx?site=yDi0V4EwP58=&s=UIrlNnBTJv8

badwolf says:

Ugh financial advice from Rick Warren? That’s like taking geography lessons from Sarah Palin.

brad says:

Only 23% off the 20 year average?

lee in irvine says:

Now we pay the price for 20+ years of credit expansion, of which the last 10 years we’ve completely abandon financial sanity. Wall Street will not reinstate the securitization of mortgages to the same levels as before, therefore home prices must return to fundamental values. That includes, 20% down payment, 30% (+/-5%) debt to income. And that’s gonna place further pressure on Orange County real estate.

So to sum it up, we’re not even close to a bottom in the current real estate debacle.

Per DataQuick, Single-Family Median Home Price:

2006

$690,000 = Feb ~ Watts 15% “In The Bag” for SFH
$695,000 = Mar
$705,000 = Apr
$705,000 = May
$700,000 = Jun
$699,000 = Jul ~ Watts revises forecast to “11%” for SFH
$685,000 = Aug
$680,000 = Sep
$665,000 = Oct
$660,000 = Nov
$665,000 = Dec

2007

$675,000 = Jan ~ Watts forecast “7%” SFH
$675,000 = Feb
$695,000 = Mar
$720,000 = Apr
$695,000 = May
$734,000 = Jun ~ Peak of O.C. Housing Bubble
$718,000 = Jul
$710,000 = Aug
$655,000 = Sep
$650,000 = Oct
$655,000 = Nov ~ Roger Rabbit “decline is DECELERATING”
$600,000 = Dec

2008

$583,250 = Jan ~ Watts declares “Pent up Demand”
$575.000 = Feb
$570,000 = Mar ~ Thoughtful declares “bottom”
$555,000 = Apr
$537,000 = May
$550,000 = Jun ~ Watts apologizes “I Got it Wrong”
$515,000 = Jul
$500,000 = Aug
$480,000 = Sep
$480,000 = Oct

Per DataQuick, this loss represents a $254,000 decline in single-family home prices from the June 2007 high. And the beat goes on … and on … and on!

My predictions:

$460,000 ~ Year End 2008
$435,000 ~ April 2009
$415,000 ~ July 2009
$400,000 ~ Oct 2009
$385,000 ~ Year End 2009
$370,000 ~ April 2010
$355,000 ~ July 2010
$345,000 ~ Oct 2010
$335,000 ~ Year End 2010

If my prediction becomes true, there will be a loss of $399,000 (55%), in single-family home prices from the June 2007 high. I also project that a bottom in sinking home prices will not occur until sometime around the summer of 2012, and home values will not start appreciating greater than the rate of inflation until the end of the next decade.

The people that suggest my prediction is outlandish, or cannot happen, should be completely ignored, because they never thought this bubble would blowup in the first place. They have been trained to believe that fundamentals like ONE’S ABILITY TO REPAY the loan, are irrelevant.

Bogey says:

November 18, 2008 at 11 am

Keep up the great work Lee . .. ..

Moody’s Alt A warning
Alt-A Performance Sinks

Serious delinquency spikes on 2006, 2007 vintages
Alt-A Performance Sinks

http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/11/18/moodys-ominous-alt-a-warning-mortgage-implosion-round-2/

Serious delinquency spikes on 2006, 2007 vintages

rants says:

thats because theyve read the new york times bestseller

“knife catching for dummies” by gary watts

not buying it says:

Brad: you choose to use the word only?

You have any idea how many more homes and people live in the OC since 1988?

OC was mostly fruit farms back then

They should compare to the 10 year average since the population and home volume is more relevant, albeit less than it is today.

thoughts?

November 18, 2008 at 12 pm

The twenty year average includes 2007.

“They”? Who are “they” and who cares if “they” should only use the boom years? Whatever. Volume rolls on.

bloodinthestreets says:

Good post Bogey - That is ‘need to know’ info.

Liar Loan says:

Lee-

FHA offers 3.5% down payment and 41% DTI. How does that figure into your return to fundamentals?

Badwolf -

If you’re going to miss the dodge the Warren gig - guess maybe we’ll meet up at the “Civics and Personal Management Ethics” conference w/ Bill, Hill, and Monica? If not . . . maybe the “Socialize your way to Profitability” w/ Obama. (Sorry I missed you at the “Bathroom-Wall Poetry” symposium – it just wasn’t my thing).

Slice	Price	Ch.	Sold	Ch.
House	$500,000	+18%	1,833	+11%
Condo	$290,000	+7%	881	+22%
New	$617,500	+24%	171	-17%
All OC	$435,000	+10%	2,885	+12%

Orange County Register