
The latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo includes a bold prediction …
“The past couple of years we have witnessed giant swings in the stock market, oil prices and housing. For the most part, the majority of consumers are trending to jump in unison. There will be more residential housing units that sell next year compared to this year, so the probability that we hit bottom in pricing next year is great. In 2010, we will most likely appreciate a bit, while many consumers wait to hear the news that the bottom was already reached. Remember, nobody is ringing a bell to indicate when we hit bottom; instead, economists and analysts will be able to inform the public at large that a bottom was reached many months later, after it occurs. In 2011, with all of the pent up demand and the realization that Orange County is undervalued, a wave of demand will be unleashed on the market and we will return to rapid appreciation.”
Thomas calculates a “market time” benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. (Thomas notes a new, combined broker listing service now includes 600 listings — 5% of supply — previously not tabulated!) By Thomas’ logic …
Here’s the data, as of last Thursday, for listings, deals pending, and market time in months vs. 2 weeks ago and a year ago ….
| SLICE | Listings | Pending | Time (mos.) | 2 wks. ago | 1 yr. ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| •$0-$500k | 6,871 | 1834 | 3.75 | 3.72 | 11.63 |
| •$500k-$750k | 2,470 | 463 | 5.33 | 5.39 | 14.00 |
| •$750k-$1m | 1,374 | 151 | 9.10 | 9.74 | 13.59 |
| •$1m-$1.5m | 996 | 69 | 14.43 | 12.40 | 15.11 |
| •$1.5m-$2m | 612 | 33 | 18.55 | 24.96 | 18.81 |
| •$2m-4m | 705 | 22 | 32.05 | 27.85 | 18.53 |
| •$4m+ | 360 | 4 | 90.00 | 49.86 | 18.77 |
| All O.C. | 13,258 | 2,557 | 5.18 | 5.19 | 13.31 |
(Note: k=thousand; m=million)
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It appears that Steve has taken over the “BOLD PREDICTION” department from “15% is in the bag” Gary Watts.
You MAY see SOME appreciation in 2011 after the O.C. median price structure has adjusted down to the low $300,000 range to accommodate the new (old) lending standards. Monthly housing (PITIA) principle, interest, taxes, insurance, + association costs should be no more than 30% of gross income. About 90% of O.C. homeowners are still in shock and complete denial re: current market conditions.
Folks, watch out for that WAVE of demand that will be UNLEASHED any time now. :-)
Bla Bla Bla-I agree,complete denial.
Hey Steve- That “rapid appreciation”, will it start on Jan 1 of 2011 or Jan 2nd?
When are these prognosticators going to realize that this run-up in real estate values was predicated on easy money, NOT fundamental reasoning. This easy money is not coming back anytime soon. This ponzi scheme has placed the US economy in peril, and even made very wise people suggest a possible depression.
Enough of this nonsense.
My predictions:
$460,000 ~ Year End 2008
$435,000 ~ April 2009
$415,000 ~ July 2009
$400,000 ~ Oct 2009
$385,000 ~ Year End 2009
$370,000 ~ April 2010
$355,000 ~ July 2010
$345,000 ~ Oct 2010
$335,000 ~ Year End 2010
If my prediction becomes true, there will be a loss of $399,000 (55%), in single-family home prices from the June 2007 high. I also project that a bottom in sinking home prices will not occur until sometime around the summer of 2012, and home values will not start appreciating greater than the rate of inflation until the end of the next decade.
The people that suggest my prediction is outlandish, or cannot happen, should be completely ignored, because they never thought this bubble would blowup in the first place. They have been trained to believe that fundamentals like ONE’S ABILITY TO REPAY the loan, are irrelevant.
Oh … Did some mention Gary “in the bag” Watts?
Gary “In the Bag” Watts at his absolute best! Pay special attention to the first quote, “Look mom, no hands!”:
10/23/2005 ~ “I only forecast off the numbers … It’s all based on pure economics.” ~ Orange County Register
02/13/2006 ~ “Fifteen percent is pretty much in the bag for Orange County in 2006 … It’s impossible for prices to go down this year.” ~ Fortune Magazine
07/21/2006 ~ “I think we probably are not going to see 15 (percent), but I think 11 or 12 (percent) is still realistic.” ~ Orange County Register
07/22/2006 ~ “”August ought to be the last month of weak appreciation numbers.” ~ Orange County Register
07/22/2006 ~ “I really think that we are pretty close to the bottom of our real estate prices … August ought to be the last month of weak appreciation numbers.” ~ Orange County Register
12/31/2006 ~ “If the un-motivated sellers stay out of the market, we could be in for a very big surprise.” ~ Orange County Register
01/01/2008 ~ “Cyclical housing downturns have always occurred. The good news is these situations do not last forever. The cycles tend to run approximately 27 to 36 months, so this cyclical downturn should run its course by summer.” ~ Impact Real Estate Jan 2008 Housing & Economic Forecast
06/23/2008 ~ “I apologize for not knowing what Wall Street did to our mortgages” … “I had no idea how Wall Street restructured these loans.” ~ Orange County Register
According to these figures, 2557 sales are pending. Of this only 260 homes exceed $750,000 … only 109 homes exceed $1,000,000.
That’s pathetic!
Most of the homes that are selling are distressed with prices tags that require a conforming loan. Homes with prices exceed $750,000, without major discounts sit on the MLS like road kill.
Just like the predictors of the bubble burst came about 2-3 years early, this prediction is not wrong, just “ahead of its time” as Lansner so eloquently describes his early predictions of the current crash that we are no where near the middle of yet.
I predict rain storms next week w/ rainfall rates of over 1″ per hour & 30 m.p.h. winds. Is my prediction wrong? No, just a little premature.
Just remember, when this storm comes, you heard it from me first!
signed , Nostradamus von weatherpredictor.
I predict a rapid loss of credibility for Steve Thomas in 2011, that is assuming he has any left by then…
hey lee,
could you please start to keep track of the statements that this clown Steve Thomas makes?
This Steve realtor has been calling the bottom for the past 2 years. Obviously, some day he will be right but the guy has absolutely no credibility.
It will be funny to read these statements a couple of years from now just like we are now doing with the other clown Gary Watts.
this guy still thinks that the appreciation that happened over the past 10 years was supposed to happen
the start of a global recession based on what happened over the past 10 years doesn’t phase Steve Thomas or his absurd predictions
we have entire countries going bankrupt in severe financial distress…….US states and cities teetering on bankruptcy….and the US on the verge of losing it’s AAA credit rating…… and this guy is ready to get back to bubble housing in 2011 …… there is a word for this….
So a 500,000 crappy house of today will sell for 750,000 before long, just a few years according to this guy. What a JOKE!
This is another person who probably owns a few houses and has lost persepective like so many others. The cost of a mid-level SFR is still outrageous. We haven’t seen prices come down to affordable levels yet.
Is that before or after they have burned down? You couldn’t give me a house in Southern California.
Hey … I’ve about had it with “Lee in Irvine”! If this guy doesn’t get off my back, I’m gonna send my mafia of bimbo’s in to mow him down.
I also have to say that Steve Thomas is a really funny guy!
Steve Thomas is a realtor, and anybody that took the advice of realtors or the NAR in the past few years has found themselves underwater. Realtors are only salesmen and their predictions are tainted. These are the same clowns that claimed the Bubble woukld never burst and if you didnt buy now, you were “missing the boat”. Perhaps Steve thinks he will sucker somebody into buying a home in the midst of a recession so he can pay his own mortagage.
I guess we really have seen a bottom in sales. No change since February even with all that’s happened in the economy.
Just take whatever prediction from the OCR and assume the exact opposite.
Ahhhh, one more moron who doesnt understand his own industry. it ’s so sad that we have such un-educated people in industries that affect so many people.
Whi will be buying these appreciating homes? With what lending?
Steve is an idiot just like his buddies Pat “taco” Veiling and Gary “in the bag” Watts
Hey Steve Thomas!!
Have you been out drinking with your pal DAVID LEREAH?!
Things that makes you go Humm!!!!
They could not predict the mess that we are facing now seen it coming for ten years but they can see the future all the way to 2011?. Tomorrow they will predict that the recovery is already here.
Real state agents on this town are equal to lawyers on the honesty chart.
Below zero.
Everyone knows the global credit market, cost of oil and stock market are all tied to the OC home inventory. In fact the DOW is down today due to this article.
Steve, anyone with a calculator can calculate the absorption rate in an area, but it’s not the motor that drives the economy. Sorry
Lee in Irvine’s wheels are coming off again! He needs to call his psychotherapist again!
Do any of you own a home, or have a job?
Sorry Steve, you’ll still be eating ramen in 2011. I hear they’re coming out with more flavors next year. Hope that helps.
I agree with you mav…this isn’t just cut and dry regarding home values increasing. It’s a domino affect, just as it has brought down the overall economy. The news today shows Citi is cutting another 53,000 jobs, last week Amer. Xprss cut some 7,000 jobs and the list goes on. How are people going to buy homes when they are continously losing their jobs. And now we’re supposed to take the advice of a realtard? No thanks, I didnt drink the kool aid during the housing bubble……and I’m not drinking it now.
I miss Janet.
Free JANET!
Who would be stupid enough to pretend to agree with this prankster, Steve Thomas? Is this guy trying to turn the tide by making people falsely believe it’s a GREAT TIME TO BUY?
This statement by Steve Thomas is absurd, I take his prediction as yet another insult if he expects me to believe it. Who is this guy?
Shane = frustrated underwater homeowner who is unable to maintain HELOC ATM lifestyle.
It’s comical when the wannabe ‘ballers’ expose themselves.
Where’s Dimmy BTW?
“pent up demand” is immaterial if all that demand can’t find a loan. Lenders actually have guidelines now, and short of an FHA loan, the typical buyer needs to have 20% saved up.
I can see how we may be off the bottom by 2011, but a “rapid appreciation” is unlikely in light of the lending overhaul. Let’s put it this way, back in 2002, if there were no Alt-A, no subprime and lenders were using traditional guidelines, the market would be appreciating at a rate supported by fundamentals. Well, at best, in 2011 that’s the market we’ll have. One whose appreciation is supported by fundamentals. So, any “pent up demand” would be severely limited by the fundamentals at the time.
JON(THE WIZARD OF BLOGGING)LANSNER
WHY OH WHY DO U CONTINUE TO LET
STEVE THOMAS EMBARASS HIMSELF IN HIGH BOLD PRINT….
DONT U THINK THIS ATTENTION MONGER HAS HAD ENUFF OR ARE U ONE TO SEE SOMEONE REALLY FALL APART…
THIS STEVE THOMAS HAS NEVER HAD ANY CREDIBILITY BUT U CONTINUE TO PUT HIM IN AS AN EXPERT..
MAYBE OL WIZARD U NEED TO DO SOME INVESTIGATIVE REPORTING URSELF AND FIND SOME REAL CREDIBLE PEOPLE
Imagine……a REAL ESTATE agent “thinks” the REAL ESTATE market will improve…….H-I-G-H-L-Y unusual.
Jon,
I agree with hwood. Arguably, you’re doing a disservice to homeowner readers by giving space to a guy with a demonstrated lack of credibility. If you think this guy’s opinions are worth being aired, however, shouldn’t you do it in a conventional news story in which you also would quote other so-called experts reacting to his views?
Rapid appreciation will only occur when all the angry housing spculators on this blog are ready to buy. Timing the market should be everyonones number one goal.
My free market impulses tell me to abandon this site rather than reward the Register for making it such a pain to post.
But i’m just hanging around waiting for Lee in Irvine’s dream of buying a house for 335K in Irvine (average household income of about 100K) go up in smoke.
Crystal Balls Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 11:06 am
My free market impulses tell me to abandon this site rather than reward the Register for making it such a pain to post
FINALLY U CRACKED UR CRYSTALIZED BALLS…
NOW LET ME BE THE FIRST ONE TO HOLD UR HAND AND KICK UR A__S OUT
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The only that is going up his Steve Thomas’ head. Up his…
Hey Lee,
From the start I have called for 50% off and the people who read this blog for the past few years know that. Bulls were saying that I was being unrealistic and I said nope a financial tsunami is coming and only one component of this alone would be crippling to the economy add them all up and they will be disastrous…I was scoffed at…well guess what I guess all of us with are proverbial ear to the track could see this train coming. So, I still believe if we don’t go into full blown depression and JUST a terrible recession before the next green energy bubble or whatever bubble we create we will see 50% for sure. You and I are too conservative according to JP Morgan, they call 58% off peak!
“the peak-to-trough average home price in California could fall as much as 58% if the country enters a severe recession.”
wouldn’t the current state of the economy greatly weaken the pent up demand? a recession and high unemployment are the usual factors that bring home prices down.
rapido! rapido! andele!
Patricio,
Kudos to you, you were right.
When you have a 50% drop in prices from peak….. it takes a 100% increase in prices to get back to peak pricing.
Let’s assume the trough occurs in 2012, and the cumulative drop is 50% peak to trough. To get back to the 2006 peak prices it would take the following:
@ 5% annual appreciation: 14 years = 2026
@ 4% annual appreciation: 18 years = 2030
@ 3% annual appreciation: 24 years = 2036
people need to stop talking about “discount” from 2006 prices
Patricio-
I remember there were people that were ultra-bearish on the local real estate market 2 years ago. I also knew it would get bad, but I honestly had no idea it would happen this quickly.
Rants made a great comment several weeks ago about the stock market dropping to 1998 values, and suggested the same thing would happen to OC real estate. I agree with him because the lenders are no longer to facilitate massive mortgages on people that don’t perfectly fit the guidelines. Most people in The OC don’t fit perfectly, therefore one of two things must happen … 1) incomes need to rise rapidly … or, 2) home prices have to drop rapidly. The market will find the path of least resistance … I think we know which is the easiest path to fundamental values.
Patty, 50% off the median right? So 50% Santa Ana and garbage Grove. Did you call 50% off specific areas? I dont think so.
arriba! arriba!
shockg, a stable 50% drop in median pricing….. will mean a 70+% drop peak to trough in places like Garden Grove.
The concept of pent up demand. Hmmmm..
Does the car market ever use the term “pent up demand?”
Does the investment securities market use it?
Does the pharmaceutical market use it?
Did we have a massive rise in population in the OC recently along with Jobs?
Where is the reasoning behind that term “pent up demand?”
Pent up demand should be defined SOLELY by data characterizing JOBS and RETIREMENT. Going by those two metrics alone - I do not see any pent up demand.
By this kind of reasoning - would Detroit not be ripe for massive appreciation? Come on man - give us something better than that!!
Can anyone with a graduate degree in economics please chime in on this topic? (I have no respect for a BA - that only signifies that you are just at the beginning of learning something) I will be the first to state that I am a not an expert on this topic but I definitely am willing to state the obvious that the experts at Altera have avoided. However, they will be the first to throw out that term that has so LITTLE MEANING when used in the context they use it in. What is this…. Amateur night?
I am not name calling here, or even being unprofessional. I would simply like for Steve Thomas to offer a brief outline of the assumptions he had to make to be able to publically, and professionaly state that “pent up demand” will fuel SIGNIFICANT home price appreciation in 2011. Something that those of us with graduate degrees can find value in when we try to discern the reasoning behind those predictions.
Of course - I would bet money that this plea for info will be met by silence.
All I ask for is real analytical evidence for pent up demand. Has anyone even done a study to find how many households earning over $100K per year are still renting in the OC? Isn’t that the minimum income needed to buy small SFR with 20% down?
In the end, this seems to be more of the same kind of marketing that put the fear in young families that they should run out a buy a home.
Now most of those families are looking to the new adminstration to spend the first 100 days in office working on issues that only affect a small percentage of all homeowners nationally - those that can’t pay their mortgage. What a frickin’ joke.
Wow. I wish I lived in his dream world.
The problem with these type of predictions is they’re just one guy’s prediction and that’s as good as my dog predicting the market by pooping in front of the house for appreciation and pooping in the back yard for decline. Seriously, my dog out predicted all these experts like Lansner the last few years. For example she poops in the front yard the last three years then all of a sudden she’s pooping in the backyard now and real estate is taking a dive.
Sure there will be a ‘rapid appreciation’ but only after a 75% drop in prices.
I guess if anyone predicts that OC housing will ever go up they must be baiting the bears in here. Seems like we’re missing a couple regulars though, did somebody’s trailer burn down?
Did they forget the fact that no one will have a job or savings left when this comes to pass?
Haha, good one sparky!
The OC’s Biblical Housing Implosion Continues…………………………
Idiots sold separately …………………………………
Where do these claims of Thomas being off come from? Seems to me he has called it right on the money every single month this year. But please, don’t let facts get in your way.
hwood, you are a creepy little creature. I have little doubt you are as ugly on the outside as you are on the inside. You and rants should start a lonely hearts club for ugly, angry people. Not sure if jerkdate.com is available.
Two words: CRACK SMOKER!
MIKEY THAT IS FUNNY!
What a bunch of B.S.
I hate to break the news to you guys! You’re about to miss the boat again like you did in 1998. You know it deep down inside, that’s why you spend so much time posting messages here to make sure it doesn’t happen again. But guess what, you can catch the next down cycle around 2020 or 2021, although you may be living in Oklahoma or Alabama by then. Just keep dreaming, that’s all you will have left in a few months. Good luck !
In a few months we will be in 2011??
Huh?
Someone is not playing with a full calendar!
Okay, next year will be 2009, and the year after that will be 2010, and the year after that will be 2011! Do you see the trend??
A few months? Wow. It seems idiots are indeed included……………………..
Why does the OCR place these ridiculous articles on their website, I would be really embarrassed if I was responsible and would start thinking about a new profession, maybe Tarot/Palm reader or something!!!
THis shane character is cracking me up. We’re about to miss the boat, huh? Sure. So we are not even to a level or relative affordability in OC and we’re already going to the next level again? Interesting. What a genious. Buy all the homes you possible can then. Get a few ARM loans, why don’t ya. Max yourself out because it’s only going up from here. Stonehead.
Mick,
You don’t have to worry about it since no one will give you a loan!
I still plan on buying in the next year. I have a good feeling whatever I buy will probably lose value, before it goes up again. My main reason for buying is the desire to get something of my own, a bigger place, a garage, central air and some sort of tax relief.
The difference for me is that since prices have come down and my income has gone up, things are more in line with something that more and more people can afford.
Now, I havent found a place that I want just yet, so for the moment I am still waiting. As I stated before I almost bought a year and 1/2 ago. Prices have dropped 30+% in the market I am looking in. I now have almost zero debt and my credit score has jumped well above 720. Waiting was the best move I ever made. I didnt listen to Thomas or Gary or any other Realtor….and I was correct in waiting.
It is just getting closer to the time that I want to get into something.
If you have spotty credit (or good credit for that matter), you can still qualify for:
3.5% Down
29% front end ratio (house payment)
41% back end ratio (combined debt payments)
WHO would be foolish enough to lend with these guidelines? Well, the US government of course.
Ever since the subprime lenders imploded, FHA loans have skyrocketed in popularity. They don’t offer stated income (there are some exceptions) or Option ARM’s, but other than those two products, you can still qualify just as easily as someone 2-3 years ago.
Any housing predictions based on restricted financing are bound to be wrong.
brad = thoughtful
shane = sighburdood
or some variation therein…..
wow.. according to these people on this blogs, sky is falling.
folks, we are in OC, everyone wants to leave here.. but cant afford. which means there AWLAYS will be demand and desire to leave in OC which will drive the price up. In spite of what you see in current economy, US, CA and oh Yes OC will recover from this down turn. And I am willing to bet that it will be sooner then later.
Chuck.
Sorry, but desire does NOT equal demand. And trust me, not everyone wants to live in OC. Many people despise OC (the horrors I know!)
Anyway, demand is directly related to the financing terms which people can get. Easy credit allowed much of the “desire” to be translated to demand - now with tighter credit the only demand are those poor knife catchers with the 20% down and income to verify.
It is not far fetched for an initial bolt of appreciation as many do try to board the bottom train before it leaves the station…but what is rapid appreciation? I will not try to define it…but if the median is $355ish, after 12 months it would not be unthinkable for a 10-15% pop that first year.
okay, so everyone makes typos on the blogs. You want to get your message out fast, and so we all make mistakes.
That being said. This particular typo
wow.. according to these people on this blogs, sky is falling.
folks, we are in OC, everyone wants to leave here.. but cant afford.
is a classic! wow, too funny.
We now return to our regular scheduled program…………………………
rapid appreciation??? HaHaHa HHaaa Ha Ha HaHaaaaaaaaaaaa Ha HaHa Ha Ha Ha Ha Haaaaaaaaaaaa Ha Ha Ha Hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
lol! Who is he kidding? Nobody believes that is going to happen. It will be a very long time before real estate prices stop falling - they will still be heading down in 2011.
Mulli: I can see your reasoning. But he’s predicting a return to rapid appreciation. That can’t be inferred to be a small jump that subsides into normal appreciation.
Not for nothing - but I did not think Steve was one to throw predictions out there. Does this have anything to do with the recent break off to go on their own?
I wonder if we can get Steve to bet his career on this one.
The other name for Steve is “Gary Watts”. He will be another humiliation in couple of years.
Prices look good to me. Especially for those of us that can afford to live here. Those that can not maybe should buy elsewhere.
How do you know when a realtor is lieing, when their mouth is moving!
Never trust a realtor! Never trust a realtor! Never trust a realtor!
Realtors are obsolete. We don’t need them anymore.
Put the cap back on the model glue, rapid appreciation in 2011 ? New loan standards + continuing high unemployment + business leaving the state due to high tax rates + public leaving the state due to high tax rates = GET A CLUE ALREADY !