Democrat Barack Obama’s edge with voters worried about the economy helped him beat Republican John McCain. (Read election story HERE!)
State-by-state, my “White House house math” — with just North Carolina outstanding, by my review of various political Web sites — shows Obama’s winning states clearly had housing markets in worse shape vs. the states carried by McCain. (See the state-by-state numbers HERE!) Obama states roughly have home-prices losses seven times worse than McCain states and four times as many foreclosures.
| Obama | McCain | No call | |
|---|---|---|---|
| States (+DC) won | 28 | 22 | 1 |
| Electoral votes | 349 | 174 | 15 |
| Avg. home price | -9.4% | -1.3% | 0.7% |
| Foreclosure share | 79.3% | 19.3% | 1.4% |
During the past 10 days, your blogger has tracked how presidential politics, notably state polling data, tracked with key real estate stats. (Posts ARE HERE!) Before Election Day, using RealClearPolitics data, Obama-leaning states had bigger home-price losses and more foreclosures vs. strongholds of McCain.
Of course, poll are just polls. This summary chart at right shows my national house math vs. the latest results from voting booths across the nation — states called for Obama; states for McCain; and ones not called yet. How’d I get there? Using the following variables:
- Electoral votes: Remember, the election is about winning enough of the most-populous states to get 270 Electoral votes. We’ll track which states the candidates won, and what’s left to be decided or too-close-to-call.
- Average home price: Starting with year-over-year price change in each state, as of late September, from First American LoanPerformance. We then weight each candidate’s price performance with an average tied to a state Electoral votes to acknowledge more populous states’ clout.
- Foreclosure share: Among the states each candidate wins, what slice of the nation’s 765,558 properties with troubled mortgages — homes in any part of the foreclosure process — do they hold? We used RealtyTrac of Irvine’s third-quarter counts.
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The Republicans are being taught a lesson tonight. I say good … maybe they’ll get mad … real angry, and take the GD gloves off, and get ready to be real Republicans again. They left us, we didn’t leave them!
It starts right here … with these very issues … nothing has changed:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yt1fYSAChxs
That’s not the only thing at stake. This radio show is about what is truly at stake in this election, and what we are TRULY voting for. This election can change the mindset of the entire country and could have an effect for years to come. Most people don’t think of it in this way. It’s very surprising. And either way you decide, you will at least be aware and understand the unspoken implications. If you like what you hear, please pass the link on to others who you may think might like it.
http://tinyurl.com/5znubc
All I can say is whoever had any responsibility with this whole ridiculous RE bubble and stock market crash really blew it. I don’t care if you are Republican or Democrat. What a greedy disaster. I hope this never happens again. What a joke.
who woulda thunk…that lowering taxes, while simultaneosly spending more, and taking on debt would destroy the republican party….. really hard to imagine….
Don’t worry, Lee. The Democrats will inevitably blow it. 6 years ago, they were left for dead. Mully will have his day again.
This is bad statistics. Because Obama won populous states, there are more homes and more foreclosures as well.
My biggest concern is that the expectation of personal responsibility is being replaced by government solutions for all. If you purchase a home you cannot afford, the government will help you out. If you don’t get an education or a skill, the governement will help you out. If you choose to have many children you can’t afford, again the government will help you out. If you choose not to buy health care, the government will help you out, if you choose to spend on lavish cars and vacations and not save for retirement, the government will help you out.
I agree we need government programs for those in need. People that make generally good choices do get sick or can find themselves in positions where they truly need and deserve government assistance. But the safety net is being filled with greedy and lazy people that consistently make bad choices. Eventually that net will break for all. I hope I’m wrong.
Obama also won in states with high crime. Apparently, criminal behavior is linked to support of Obama. Associational statistics have very little value.
“Free chicken, free gas and no more mortgage payments.”
# Crystal Balls Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 8:10 am
“Obama also won in states with high crime. Apparently, criminal behavior is linked to support of Obama. Associational statistics have very little value.”
Wealth and population tend to attract crime. Sparsely populated states don’t have that problem.
Price, I think you are missing my point, which was to point out the fact that two statistics occur together does not mean they are related to each other. I was amused by your comment that wealth attracts crime. I’m guessing your are quite liberal. There is much less crime in wealthy areas. Criminals tend mostly to commit their crimes against the poor and lower middle class.
These stats are meaningless. There are plenty of homeowners who voted for Obama, plenty who make decent incomes, plenty who do need a handout etc…
Many of the states that have been greatly effected by foreclosures happen to be states where the home values went up to fast and homes were way overvalued in comparison to the rest of the country and incomes. Also, the states that went for Obama are heavily populated and contain the majority of the wealth in the country.
Another point, most of the states that went strongly for Obama have a heterogeneous population….for what it is worth.