Obama’s ‘housing gap’ vs. McCain is growing

October 31st, 2008, 10:01 am · 6 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner

Democrat White House hopeful Barack Obama’s “housing gap” has grown by my math — a sign that the economy remains a huge driver in this election.

If you recall, I came up with a mixture of election polling data from RealClearPolitics.com and housing stats from First American LoanPerformance to show real estate’s stake in this election. (That’s RealClearPolitic’s early Friday map at right. Click on it for bigger version or CLICK HERE for their real-time, complete state-by-state polling coverage!)

One week ago, using RealClearPolitics’ call of states “solid” or “leaning” to Obama or Republican John McCain, I found that Obama’s strongholds (24 states and DC) had average home-price losses in the year ended late September of 9.2% vs. a typical housing loss in the 19 McCain strongholds of 1.6%. (Pricing stats are weighed by a state’s Electoral College votes to show bigger state’s political clout.)

Compare that to a nationwide loss of 6.5% or a 5.1% drop in the 7 toss-up states. To me, and a few experts I chatted with, this made sense: Where folks are hurting in the wallet — and regional housing prices are a decent indicator of local business distress — in this election they lean toward Obama.

So now it’s almost a week later, and I promised updates. And RealClearPolitics has moved Nevada (and its minus-23.7% housing market and 5 Electoral votes) into Obama’s column from a toss-up and has taken Georgia (and its minus-5% housing market and 15 Electoral votes) from McCain’s group of strongholds. That’s changed the White House/house math to:

Obama’s 25 states (plus DC) average a weighted loss of -9.3% in the past year.
McCain’s 18 states average a weighted loss of -1.3% in the past year.
The 7 toss-up states average a weighted loss of -5.1% in the past year.

While it’s a modest move, the gap between Obama and McCain — as measured by White House/house math has grown from 7.5 percentage points to 8 full points. Come back for more updates runing through the actual election.

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Bruce says:

October 31, 2008 at 11 am

I think that the degree of correlation between Obama supporters and mortgage defaults demonstrates the ability of liberals to saddle others with the consequences of their own bad decisions. I am starting to prepare a list of military programs that I think will be cancelled.

Ed Morgan says:

October 31, 2008 at 12 pm

Bruce - Better yet, prepare a list of military programs you think WON’T be cancelled. You’ll save a lot of ink.

john afraidi says:

It is very clear now that Obama, the great kid will win the jackpot on coming Tuesday and the old man, whose hands are tight, mind is tight, heart is tight and legs are tight will lose the election with at least 15% points. McCain will lose the election in many republican States and may be able to get less than 130 delegates. Sharah Palin is the biggest drag on his campaign, it shows that he is too old to take right decision. After the election McCain will retire in Arizona desert and enjoy her wife’s million of dollars, Palin will back to Wasila, she will be removed from her Governorship and apply for welfare and food stamps untill she find wolf, moose or polar bear to hunt.

Will Work for Food says:

Cancelled military programs? The more the merrier

Price of Bad Tidings says:

# Bruce Says:
October 31st, 2008 at 11:46 am

“I think that the degree of correlation between Obama supporters and mortgage defaults demonstrates the ability of liberals to saddle others with the consequences of their own bad decisions. I am starting to prepare a list of military programs that I think will be cancelled.”

Now that’s a funny spin: the RE bubble is now a red/blue issue.
I hope that you’re not one who thinks that the financing the military is cheap and doesn’t take away resources from our infrastructure. This country has been saddled with 8 years of bad decisions mismanagement already.

Patricio says:

October 31, 2008 at 2 pm

So now with hind sight, and the economy being #1 issue how many Republicans who thought Ron Paul wasn’t “electable” would rather have him in there running against Obama? I will tell you right now he would have stomped on Obama in the poll like a nark at Sturgis. You can only thank the traitors at Fox and other neo-con outlets and the far left for taking their fringe attacks and marginalizing the man who is our only hope in correcting this issue.

Once again people fooled by propaganda and stupidity are conned into getting the wrong person in the wrong place. Not unlike the housing hype that created this pozi scheme….now wait for the next ponzi social security….game over people stupidity has won the day congrats to all the morons on getting McCain in there as their running horse…you deserve everything Obama reaps.

Slice	Price	Ch.	Sold	Ch.
House	$500,000	+18%	1,833	+11%
Condo	$290,000	+7%	881	+22%
New	$617,500	+24%	171	-17%
All OC	$435,000	+10%	2,885	+12%

Orange County Register