Anybody hoping for a rebound in O.C. home prices next year will be disappointed says a Cal State Fullerton economist, who predicts values won’t begin rising until late 2010 — and then not by much.
Anil Puri
In fact, O.C. home prices could drop as much as 5% more through the first half of 2009, before leveling off, said CSUF economist Anil Puri during a presentation today of the school’s annual economic forecast.
Based on the California Association of Realtors’ median price in August of $511,268, that would mean O.C. home values could fall to $485,705.
“I think prices will then stay unchanged for a year until the end of 2010 when they will start to recover,” Puri said. “Then we will start seeing small, small appreciation.”
Puri’s prediction for home prices echoes UCLA economists who presented their O.C. forecast earlier this week. UCLA’s Anderson forecast said home prices here will hit bottom next summer but the median price will remain $100,000 below peak levels until 2013.
To purchase a copy of the full CSUF forecast, contact Ginny Pace, director of community affairs at CSUF’s Mihaylo College of Business and Economics, at 714-278-2566 or by email at gpace@fullerton.edu.
Other Orange County economic and housing news …
- Meltdown recovery? It’s all about housing
- Mild rebound forecast for O.C. economy in 2009
- No end seen for Calif. homebuilding slump in 2009
- Realtors see 6% drop in Calif. home prices
- O.C.’s foreclosed homes sell 19% below median price
- Tell us, ‘Is housing’s bottom near?’
- Housing rebound? No way! Try 8 to 10 years
- Realtors see O.C. house values down 27.9%
Did you miss these recent business stories …
look at the shnozola on this guy…awesome.
I need mortgage assistance. There is a house I like that was 1.5 mil at the peak…it is 950 now and I need help to purchase the house for 500k.
Please, anybody in the government that can hear my cries, my poor family works so hard at begging and we just need help…pretty, pretty, pretty please!!!
It appears that the more desperate you are, the better your position in the future.
It appears the more you beg, the more you get attention.
People that simply claim to be poor and beaten down get help and Supersized failing companies get help.
Question: what is the game today? you go work for your hard earned money and the slackers and big wigs get freebies…this is the game? not fun amigo.
YEA!!!! Keep on dropping, then maybe the average Joe’s can finally afford a home at a reasonable price!! =)
I guess if you looked at housing in a vacuum and nothing outside this might be reasonable, as long as you don’t look at any other economic factors…if you do then you change your shorts and realize the problems coming.
Right when Option ARMS and Alt-A loan resets will be approaching their peak.. What a joke!
I like big noses. :)
Only 5%? I’d think we expect a lot more drop than that.
do these ‘economists’ actually ever pull out a calculator and do simple math?
median income for OC: $67k
expected median (after -5%): $485k
first off, you need $87k in CASH for a down payment. now your 6.5% $388k loan, with 1.25% prop tax, costs you $2850/mo
Does he realize thats a ~50% DTI?
wake me when a median income maker can afford a median home.
dafox,
You a right, the professor is wrong.
I love it when I see these predictions! No one knows what will happen, but one thing is certain - Orange County homes are greatly inflated! If you bought a home at these prices, you lose - It’s a simple as that! It should never return to that price level, as it was a contrived and manipulated market, fueled by those who sell real estate. Jon Lasner would “brag” on a regular basis and the OCR would put the average price of the “OC” home in nearly banner headlines on their front page. Today, the Register continues to cut back more employees in yet another cost cutting venue. Could it be that the knew “squat” about real estate as well as what the knew about the profit line of the very business they are in?
Okay, put a mark on this, but I would say by March of 2009 house prices will drop an additional 25%. I know this will kill some of you, but look at the drop currently….. in some areas houses are dropping as much as $850 a day for the past 30days. In some areas of “over-inflated prices” more. The original prediction, all kidding aside, was prices “could” …I repeat “could” roll back to 2002…. then…. a couple of bloggers said maybe….it could drop to prices similar to 1996. Looking at the historical rise and fall of prices in OC, I would say, that, if you take the sub-prime surge out of the market, 1998 or 1999 prices should be where it will land. Like I said, put a mark on this prediction and then in April…..lets see where it lands……hum?
Where is the $67k meidan income coming from? I am a long term resident of So. OC and I do not know of any family that even comes close to that low of a number.
Hello dafox ,
Would you please explain more detail term DTI for me, then I can understand more concept. Thank you so much
Lee in Irvine is the “Joe the Plumber” of this blog !!
“O.C. home prices will stagnate until late 2010 — CSUF”
How about “OC home prices will Fall until late 2010 then they will stagnate if we are lucky”
This is a Japanese style property deflation with S. California sitting at ground zero. We are witnessing the unwinding of a 25 year credit bubble and OC home prices were the poster child that reflected this bubble’s inflated asset valuations.