O.C. homebuying takes biggest jump since ‘96
October 10th, 2008, 4:18 am · 73 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner/ocregister.com
DataQuick’s freshest stats show a $437,250 median selling price for the 22 business days ended Sept. 19 — 26.6% below a year ago and 32% less than June 2007’s peak of $645,000. Note:
- The last time the median was lower? November 2003
- It’s a widespread drop: Only 4 of 83 O.C. ZIPs had price gains in the period
The deep discounting, however, is luring back shoppers as 2,808 O.C. homes were sold in the 22 business days ended Sept. 19. That’s 41.2% above the year-ago period’s buying actvity, a time when credit crunch just meant a frozen mortgage market. Note:
- If the pace holds, September would mark the fastest rate of sales increase since May 1996.
- Sales, relatively speaking, are still sluggish. Since ‘88, monthly sales have averaged 3,700 per month — or 32% above the current pace.
- To see how your neighborhood did, check our sortable ZIP code chart HERE!
[ NEW! See Register's Huntington Beach housing blog, CLICK HERE! ]
Here’s how the O.C. market looked, by key slice, in the 22 business days ended Sept. 19 …
| Slice | Price | Vs. ‘07 | Sales | Vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| House | $495,000 | -26.7% | 1,854 | +52.8% |
| Condo | $300,000 | -30.2% | 778 | +57.8% |
| New | $475,000 | -12.0% | 176 | -37.6% |
| All | $437,250 | -26.6% | 2,808 | +41.2% |
Other real estate news:
- Stable for 12? Seller seeks $8 million for Coto estate
- Tell us, ‘Did media miss the financial crisis?’
- Wall St. woes could smack Newport Beach
- O.C. home values ranked 7th in nation
- Irvine Co.’s Bren loses $1 billion! Maybe.
- Chaos good for Ladera Ranch company, Insider Q&A told
- Free boxes for O.C. foreclosured homeowners
- Huintington Beach places 2 ZIPs on U.S. priciest homes list
- O.C. home inventory lowest since March 2006
- O.C. housing premium falls to 2002 level
Worried about your money in these troubled times?
- O.C. economist: Time to start buying good stocks
- Credit expert: Fed rate cut won’t help consumers
- O.C. investment experts say don’t buy yet — but get ready
- Yikes! What do I do with my money now?
- Should I bail on my 401(k)? Is my savings safe in my bank?
NEW: Register’s South Coast Plaza blog!
- Giuseppe Zanotti to present fall/winter collection
- Auction winners ’shop ’til they drop’ at South Coast Plaza
- Register newspaper gets put to use at J.Crew
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=5b2c8f98-f9e7-4c26-9861-eeb008a11b83)
October 10th, 2008 at 4:40 am
1 in 6 underwater (nationally . . . not in Cdm):
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122341352084512611.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Regarding the earlier story on muted reporting . .. . I can understand why it happens here … imagine if THIS news reached the OC populous. We’d have a situation where 100% of the people predict house price declines for the next 2 years (instead of just the 60% who can see the writing).
Hang-on for this Falls slide, “wheee!” . . . . I mean “OHHHH NOOOO!!!”
(ok, sorry, I can see that even the bears are freaking out here . .. all of this is beyond nutty. I think I’ll go rent in Cdm where it’s safe.)
October 10th, 2008 at 5:02 am
OC housing has out performed my 401K by a long shot. Boomers no longer have to worry about where they are going to retire. Courtesy of Barney Frank, they no longer have any funds on which to retire.
October 10th, 2008 at 5:44 am
Here is the SNL skit on the bailout. Too funny to miss if you have not seen it. This is the unedited version. (Mr Sandler complained because he found it offensive so NBC pulled it).
http://www.patdollard.com/2008/10/it-is-here-the-banned-snl-skit-cannot-hide-from-louie/
October 10th, 2008 at 5:47 am
Per DataQuick, Single Family Median Home Price:
2006 ~ Month End
$690,000 = Feb ~ Watts 15% “In The Bag” for SFH
$695,000 = Mar
$705,000 = Apr
$705,000 = May
$700,000 = Jun
$699,000 = Jul ~ Watts revises forecast to “11%” for SFH
$685,000 = Aug
$680,000 = Sep
$665,000 = Oct
$660,000 = Nov
$665,000 = Dec
2007 ~ Month End
$675,000 = Jan ~ Watts forecast “7%” SFH
$675,000 = Feb
$695,000 = Mar
$720,000 = Apr
$695,000 = May
$734,000 = Jun ~ Peak of O.C. Housing Bubble
$718,000 = Jul
$710,000 = Aug
$655,000 = Sep
$650,000 = Oct
$655,000 = Nov
$600,000 = Dec
2008 ~ Weekly ~ Month End
$583,250 = Jan ~ Watts declares “Pent up Demand”
$575.000 = Feb
$570,000 = Mar ~ Thoughtful declares “bottom”
$555,000 = Apr
$537,000 = May
$550,000 = Jun ~ Watts apologizes “I Got it Wrong”
$515,000 = Jul
$500,000 = Aug
$515,000 = Sept 8
$500,000 = Sept 15
$495,000 = Sept 19 ~ NEW LOW
Per DataQuick, this loss represents a $239,000 decline in single family home prices from the June 2007 high. And the beat goes on … and on … and on!
October 10th, 2008 at 6:21 am
while walking through Corona Del Mar
i heard some one yell:
FREAKIN’ MARGIN CALLS !
lulz
October 10th, 2008 at 6:58 am
Keep that number going down. I’m waiting.
October 10th, 2008 at 7:21 am
These are the only two important points in Jon’s post:
Sales, relatively speaking, are still sluggish. Since ‘88, monthly sales have averaged 3,700 per month — or 32% above the current pace.
DataQuick’s freshest stats show a $437,250 median selling price for the 22 business days ended Sept. 19 — 26.6% below a year ago and 32% less than June 2007’s peak of $645,000
So, there you go. This ain’t no bottom. For those of you who don’t know, bottom is when prices STOP going down.
October 10th, 2008 at 7:34 am
I don’t think too many people are going to be buying homes with massive REO’s predicted for OC. Did you see the NOD numbers? More importantly the economy is so screwed up now that you’d be crazy to make a major purchase at this time.
October 10th, 2008 at 7:37 am
Can’t believe 2,808 (either really good bargains or really dumb people)people bought houses during this time period.
October 10th, 2008 at 8:23 am
“Can’t believe 2,808 (either really good bargains or really dumb people)people bought houses during this time period.”
At least a house as an investment, as expensive as they are, will be around when you are retired. US citizens are losing faith in intangible investments.
October 10th, 2008 at 8:36 am
Prices are getting closer to rents so I wouldn’t say people are crazy to buy now. I would think that next year would be a better deal, but you don’t have to buy at the bottom to do well.
The problem for the economy is that at these prices the home ATM is closed and that means we have entered the Second Great Depression = spending only what we as Americans earn.
No, wait, the government can still borrow a few trillion a year and give it away!
October 10th, 2008 at 8:52 am
poneeboy53 Says: “either really good bargains or really dumb people”
I vote for the latter
October 10th, 2008 at 8:59 am
“really dumb people”…with money. You only half qualify.
October 10th, 2008 at 9:03 am
The Money Pit Says: “Prices are getting closer to rents so I wouldn’t say people are crazy to buy now. ”
I’ve got news for you, rents are coming down as well.
As Clinton would say: “it’s the economy, stupid”
I would recommend for you renters out there to ask your landlord to lower your rent or start looking for another apartment. There are plenty of apartments for rent. You have the power, not them.
When people are losing jobs and losing their retirement plans, landlords have to lower rents or keep apartments vacant.
The stock market always looks ahead and it is telling you that we are going into the worst recession in the last 40 years. Ignore at your own risk.
Or you can listen to Mulliganville or Jimmy2 and believe that everything is okay and people are just overreacting. LOL
October 10th, 2008 at 9:16 am
hey Jimmy, some interesting numbers here.
>b>
Community Zip Median Change Sales Change
Corona del Mar 92625 $1,650,000 -5.0% 9 -30.8%
Newport Beach 92660 $1,190,000 -20.7% 21 -25.0%
Newport Beach 92661 $635,000 -69.2% 1 -75.0%
Newport Beach 92662 $1,800,000 -25.0% 3 200.0%
Newport Beach 92663 $1,150,000 -16.1% 19 35.7%
Newport Coast 92657 $1,625,000 -43.4% 10 -44.4%
I thought prices in the “beach communities” would never go down.
I’ve telling you guys that I’ve seen a lot of home sitting vacant here in NB and it was just a matter of time.
October 10th, 2008 at 9:16 am
hey Jimmy, some interesting numbers here.
Community Zip Median Change Sales Change
Corona del Mar 92625 $1,650,000 -5.0% 9 -30.8%
Newport Beach 92660 $1,190,000 -20.7% 21 -25.0%
Newport Beach 92661 $635,000 -69.2% 1 -75.0%
Newport Beach 92662 $1,800,000 -25.0% 3 200.0%
Newport Beach 92663 $1,150,000 -16.1% 19 35.7%
Newport Coast 92657 $1,625,000 -43.4% 10 -44.4%
I thought prices in the “beach communities” would never go down.
I’ve telling you guys that I’ve seen a lot of home sitting vacant here in NB and it was just a matter of time.
October 10th, 2008 at 9:17 am
Day Traders/Speculators - Do you think the Stock Market is a buy now? Well, it’s still crashing! In front of your eyes and you’re still buying. What does that make you? A knifecatcher? Talk about dumb. You just lost 40% of your money which could have been 10% of your down for a home. Keep speculating! Keep gambling! You will be farther and farther away from the nice neighborhoods where people
are peacefully living in their homes.
Again, the last thing you should worry about is the home market!
October 10th, 2008 at 9:53 am
BS. Does FOX News own this paper?
October 10th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Right or wrong, the perception among these buyers is that now is a good time to buy. They aren’t market timers that care about reaching bottom, they are people ready to own and see home ownership within their reach for first time ever.
I have three different acquaintances in my life that are buying for the first time. One has already closed, and the other two are in escrow to close this month. I’ve advised them to wait longer for an even better deal, but there’s no stopping their collective desire to own right now.
It’s emotional, not logical, but illustrates what’s driving the market right now. Also, financing does not seem to be a problem for any of them. The credit crunch hasn’t tightened mortgage lending much in the past year, as most of the tightening already occured after the big lenders collapsed in ‘07. Rates are still low for mortgages.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:21 am
Hey, does anyone realize the NOD’s have skyrocketed? How do you get around that one? How is the RE market going to recover anytime soon from increasing foreclosures?
October 10th, 2008 at 10:34 am
“I’ve advised them to wait longer for an even better deal, but there’s no stopping their collective desire to own right now”
well, when they come back to you next year crying that lost 15% of their equity, just tell them: “I told you so”
these were the same people who were buying Cisco shares back in late 2000 thinking they were getting a great deal and now, 8 years later, they are still underwater.
Buying a house (the largest investment for most people) should never ever be a emotional thing.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Why is it that it is always the same five negative people here? You guys must be unemployed lol! To much time on your hands?
October 10th, 2008 at 10:50 am
LIAR LOAN
OK HERES THE PICKS IN STOCK MARKET U WANNA GO LONG RIGHT NOW BUY
GS BOUGHT AT 85.50
UYG BOUGHT 8.06
MS BOUGHT 7.94
GO LONG BOUNCE IS COMING
U HEARD IT HERE FIRST
October 10th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Bubble-
If any of them do come crying, I will tell them.
With one of them, I even created a chart in Excel tracking the momentum of our price declines using these dataquick numbers. It’s a straight line heading down with no signs of flattening. I also mentioned price/income and price/rent ratios. The response I got was silence and glazed over eyes.
Emotion is very powerful force that can neutralize all judgement.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Anyone using an adjustable loan product to buy in OC had better have plenty of cash for weathering the risks.
Prices here have a ways to go before they bottom
Slowing down the foreclosure process is only going to build a backlog
Defaults are rising - not falling
Keep in mind that many of these purchases are people that are attempting to get into a lower priced home and foreclose on the original. Seeing that the foreclosure process is now more costlier and takes longer, the opportunities for such spineless moves are growing, not shrinking.
Talk to a local agent if you know any personally that you can trust. This is the talk around town lately in the back office.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:01 am
HWOOD-
In other words, buy financials. I have a few financials already, although not Morgan or Goldman.
The only bank in my arsenal is AIB, currently trading at a P/E of 1.83 with a 14.8% divie that was just raised. Also, the Irish govt is guaranteeing 100% of deposits. This led to a flood of Europeans moving their money to Irish banks recently.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:03 am
LIAR LOAN
I AM SPECIFIC IN WHAT I SAID ONLY THOSE THREE I JUST MENTIONED WATCH AND SEE WHO KNOWS WHATS UP
IDO FOLLOW ME TO THE BANK…..
LIAR BUY ALL THREE OF THESE ITS IN THE BAG .BOUNCE IS COMING TO UPSIDE
October 10th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Wow. CdG ( Corona Del Gold ), down -5.0%. Such a problem.
As far as sales streaking to 96 levels, no one should be suprised. Anyone who has money and job are running down to the local real estate agent.
Those who don’t have money or a below average job are crying a river in this blog.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Jimmy2,
Don’t fool yourself, we are all going to take a hit on this economy. The only group that will be untouched are the poor and the homeless.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Jimmy2 Says: “Wow. CdG ( Corona Del Gold ), down -5.0%. Such a problem. ”
But Jimmy my old friend, I thought you said CdM prices will NEVER go down because the old people there don’t need to sell. By the way, does anybody under the age of 40 live in CdM?
October 10th, 2008 at 11:50 am
NB Said: “The stock market always looks ahead and it is telling you that we are going into the worst recession in the last 40 years. Ignore at your own risk. ”
Thats the dumbest thing I’ve ever read. So the stock market was looking ahead a year ago when it was at 14000. SO last year it was irrational, but now its a crystal ball.
Explain that dumb-dumb.
October 10th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
# jeff Says:
“Why is it that it is always the same five negative people here? You guys must be unemployed lol! To much time on your hands?”
–
Hey jeff,
I resemble that remark.
But you have it backwards. I’m not negative. I’m positive and was postive over three years ago.
Positive that the market was going to drop.
October 10th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Lake they say “there is an idiot born every minute”.
Guess the flood gates opened.
I am assuming they think that the taxpayers will baili them out.
October 10th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
With the rising fixed interest rates, unless the pr