Orange County house shoppers had 12,940 residences listed for sale to choose from, as of last Thursday, the smallest inventory in 18 months, according to Steve Thomas of the newly renamed Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo. His latest report notes:
- Last year at this time, inventory was 27% higher. Two years ago it was 16% higher.
- This year, inventory peaked at 15,566 in mid-April, and have fallen 17% since. During the same timeframe in 2006 and 2007, inventory increased by 37% and 20% respectively.
- Demand — homes put into escrow the past 30 days — is up 156% vs. last year and up 43% stronger than two years ago.
Thomas calculates a “market time” benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. By this Thomas logic …
- It would take 4.55 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 4.43 months two weeks vs. 15.96 months a year ago.
- Homes under a million bucks have a market time of 3.73 months vs. 13.89 months for homes listed for more than $1 million.
Here’s the data, as of last Thursday, for listings, deals pending, and market time in months vs. 2 weeks ago and a year ago ….
| Slice | Listings | Pending | Time (mos.) | 2 wks. ago | 1 yr. ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| •$0-$500k | 6,441 | 1897 | 3.40 | 3.41 | 13.65 |
| •$500k-$750k | 2,509 | 561 | 4.47 | 4.24 | 15.64 |
| •$750k-$1m | 1,421 | 325 | 4.37 | 6.16 | 15.88 |
| •$1m-$1.5m | 1,014 | 111 | 9.14 | 8.94 | 22.56 |
| •$1.5m-$2m | 614 | 35 | 17.54 | 14.14 | 17.77 |
| •$2m-4m | 751 | 44 | 17.07 | 16.06 | 26.06 |
| •$4m+ | 344 | 6 | 57.33 | 34.30 | 23.91 |
| All O.C. | 12,940 | 2,847 | 4.55 | 4.43 | 15.96 |
(Note: k=thousand; m=million)
Other real estate news …
- Homebuying doubles or more in 17 O.C. ZIPs
- O.C. home inventory lowest since March 2006
- Early Sept. home sales take biggest jump in 5 years
- O.C. housing premium falls to 2002 level
- Newport Beach tops U.S. for housing costs
- BofA settling Countrywide’s Calif. suits for $3.5 billion
- Huntington Beach looking brighter than a year ago, broker says
Who are we kidding here Jon?
Have you seen the most recent car sales figures? They’re awful. In fact, I don’t think the economy has ever looked the bleak in my lifetime.
Point being; there is nothing positive about this vastly overpriced real estate market.
“It would take 4.55 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace”
New company same BS
same destination
see you in 5 months
while steve-o was changing the name of his company the global economy began an epic cliff dive into deflation circa 1930s
Since August 11, total inventory is down by 1,408 houses. If demand hols, still have a chance of hitting 11,000 by the end of the year.
With the great economic new and the super cheap houses that anyone could afford, no wonder we have all these sales happening!
And no one is looking while the DJIA is under 10,000 as I write this? Steve Thomas is a shill for the RE industry, and changing his name isn’t going to help that. By the way, he blatantly misuses the term “demand”. Take Econ 101 please Mr. Thomas.
If you can’t dazzle em’ with brilliance , baffle em’ with BS.
A dash of optimism goes down HARD for some. They have to resort to name calling and blind prophesizing. All current stats and graphs are skewed toward the $0-$500k segment, filled with foreclosures and short sales. They make up the majority of the homes sold, so it’s really not a reflection of a “normal” market anyway. Only a reflection of the sick, bizarro-world situation we are in now. So don’t have a cow, bears. And don’t worry, it will get worse.
“blind prophesizing”
That’s funny. I guess some of us have been economic prophets!
When the Dow is at 7000…
When home sales for the county average 800/month…
When local unemployment is measured at 15-20% or more….
The bears will be shouting “I told you so!!!!!!!!!!!!!” —– All for the glorious recognition they each so desperately seek.
hey VOR, blind prophesizing? i’m sorry but this was quite evident well in advance…..
…… guess what’s next?…..
…. the fed fund rate will be driven down to 0 % …. that’s Z E R O ….
… just like Japan did in the 1990s, during their epic asset bubble collapse….
…. deflation is a biaaaatch !!!
“All current stats and graphs are skewed toward the $0-$500k segment”
And every week, more homes drop into this “segment”. Next year, nice SFHs in Turtle Rock will be priced in this “segment”.
Lee, that’s what SFH’s in Turle Rock cost in the mid-90’s. That isn’t so long ago.
I think there are a number of potential sellers that just want the market to rebound a little bit…when things recover. It’s not going to happen.
lee,
It doesn’t take any special talent to search the internet for 5 minutes. Tell us something we don’t already know.
You say: And every week, more homes drop into this “segment”. Next year, nice SFHs in Turtle Rock will be priced in this “segment”. Maybe. But a lot of things can happen in a year, as we’ve seen.
mav,
“blind prophesizing”–see above.
VOR, you’ll find my blinders are off.
when the fed fund rate is zero, what will you say?
Mulli, I was just checking and I can see that once again, you spent the whole weekend posting here on this blog. Do you ever get out of the house at all? Not that there is much to do in the inland area where you live but still, you can get on your car and drive 30 minutes to the beach to visit us and at least see the ocean once in a while.
Seriously, you have to find more meaning to life than spending the whole weekend in front of the computer. It is pretty pathetic.
Just my $0.02
“The bears will be shouting “I told you so!!!!!!!!!!!!!” —– All for the glorious recognition they each so desperately seek.”
Don’t worry, we are getting there. As you can see, the bailout plan has done nothing to calm the markets. I can only imagine how depressed Americans are going to be when they start getting their 401K statements in the next week. It’s going to be a horrible Christmas for most people out there, specially those who overspent during the boom years.
mav,
you are one of a very few here who seem to understand the stiuation and deserve props for that. If the fed fund rate goes to zero, I’d say we are screwed, but I’ve never claimed to have a knowledge of national or international finance. I just ask that posters be reasonably intellegent in their statements and leave out the drama. So, if the fund zeros out…..what will happen?
Oh do not worry Bubbs…I love college and pro football…and nothing like a little blog entertainment to go with that Texas BBQ and libation of choice. Hook ‘em horns.
I understand you deem myself unworthy of your locale…yes, your character is shining bright for all to see. I feel sorry for you buddy…truly.
What’s the historical norm for inventory level for this time of year?
Comparing todays numbers to last years or even the year before is misleading. The sales #’s were horrible last year and were not much better the year before and they are obviously not a good benchmark to compare from, specially since they are lower than historical sales numberes for this time of year. That being said still shocked that people are buying with all the uncertainty right now.
It is still funny that 2/3 of the sales happen in the the bottom rung but Steve doesn’t break that bottom rung up.
VOR, this thing is going to go down the same way no matter what happens.
The stock market is going to crash, asset values are going to crash, and many people will lose their jobs.
The levers the government pushes just determine who gets screwed and when.
I’m not happy about this. It’s going to suck for quite some time.
My only hope is that our children will inherit a better situation, and by the 2020s we will be back on track.
VOR … you’re one of the fools that said these events wouldn’t happen. Why should anybody take you serious? Why?
8)
hey lee, could you post how you bold and expedite it to hwood…
No Mulli, but I can give you this!
Per DataQuick, Single Family Median Home Price:
2006 ~ Month End
$690,000 = Feb ~ Watts 15% “In The Bag” for SFH
$695,000 = Mar
$705,000 = Apr
$705,000 = May
$700,000 = Jun
$699,000 = Jul ~ Watts revises forecast to “11%” for SFH
$685,000 = Aug
$680,000 = Sep
$665,000 = Oct
$660,000 = Nov
$665,000 = Dec
2007 ~ Month End
$675,000 = Jan ~ Watts forecast “7%” SFH
$675,000 = Feb
$695,000 = Mar
$720,000 = Apr
$695,000 = May
$734,000 = Jun ~ Peak of O.C. Housing Bubble
$718,000 = Jul
$710,000 = Aug
$655,000 = Sep
$650,000 = Oct
$655,000 = Nov
$600,000 = Dec
2008 ~ Weekly ~ Month End
$583,250 = Jan ~ Watts declares “Pent up Demand”
$575.000 = Feb
$570,000 = Mar ~ Thoughtful declares “bottom”
$555,000 = Apr
$537,000 = May
$550,000 = Jun ~ Watts apologizes “I Got it Wrong”
$515,000 = Jul
$500,000 = Aug
$515,000 = Sept 8th
$500,000 = Sept 15th
Per DataQuick, this loss represents a $234,000 decline in single family home prices from the June 2007 high. And the beat goes on … and on … and on!
Just more OC propaganda. The economy is going down the drain by the second. Many OCiens may lose their job in the near future, let alone having one that will pay for one of these overpriced OC shacks.
“I understand you deem myself unworthy of your locale…yes, your character is shining bright for all to see. I feel sorry for you buddy…truly.”
You shouldn’t feel sorry for me because I have actually provided a benefit to society. I’ve been telling people for the past 2 years that this was going to happen. I’ve been saying that our problem was way beyond housing, it was all about leverage and irresponsible spending and now everybody sees that I and many other bear bloggers were right.
You sir, have been saying that everything was okay and all this “doom and gloom” talk was just overblown.
Now, central banks around the world are talking about “coordinated rate cuts”. Guess what, they can bring interest rates down to zero but that will no prevent the necessary de-leveraging of the world’s economy. So, go and talk to the losers who bought homes just a year ago and even a few months ago and tell me how they feel after following your advice and Steve Thomas.
At the very least, you should be man enough to admit that you were wrong and we, the “doom and gloom” bloggers were right and maybe we knew what we were talking about.
You are wrong lee. I have never stated that I didn’t think this would happen. I’ve always stated that I could not predict the future, and that you and the other bottom dwellers can’t either, even though you seem to think that your ablility to copy and paste makes you a RE genius.
Bubbs: my comment was not about your contribution to society. It was about your character. To claim that a person has not contributed to society based on their “blog name” is juvenile, mean-spirited, callous, and a reflection of your self-esteem. Anytime one knocks another, it only hurts you…not me.
I will happily admit that I underestimated the veracity of the problem. I have never claimed to be a “know-it-all.” I have also always said purchasing is an independent decision. Buy when the time is right for you…Not me, not your brother, you and only you. Your expectation for an entire profession to take a hiatus is unrealistic and nonsensical. 2700 people said last month was good enough for them. But hey, I do not do general RE…you know that.
Here is the root of the problem…like I have been saying all along.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/05/60minutes/main4502454.shtml
“I will happily admit that I underestimated the veracity of the problem. ”
Now, we are finally getting somewhere with you.
“Buy when the time is right for you…”
How do most of these morons know when the time is right for them? These are the same morons that complain about gas prices but drive huge SUVs. These are the same morons who live paycheck to paycheck and pay minimum payments on their credit cards. So, don’t tell me that the American consumer knows better because the vast majority of them know nothing about finances. That is one of the reasons we are in this mess. Just because 2700 idiots decided to buy doesn’t mean that they know what they are doing. The same way the thousand who bought in 2006 didn’t know either.
Well, there you go Mulli. It’s bubbles’ complete contempt for the common man that drives his hatred. I mean, he is obviously better than them, right? Only he can post other peoples ideas and claim them for his own. Only he can post videos of people being evicted from their home and claim humor.
It’s obvious…..Bubble is just better than the rest.
Could be that law that Arnold put into effect. Says “you have to contact mortgage holder 30days prior to foreclosure”.
Another tool to try and support the markets, which only post pones the inevitable. Expect a POP in inventory in the future.
Just like the temporary “no short sell” rule. Then look what happened today.. POP!
“It’s obvious…..Bubble is just better than the rest.”
No, Bubble is just more responsible that the average American. You can go back on this blog and you can see how (and other bears) have been warning readers of this financial collapse. Thousands of people are going to lose their jobs in the months to come but nobody would know about it if they only listen to you permabulls.
The Dow is down right now 533 and the losses are accelerating. What do you call that smart guy?
We passed the 150 Billion stimulus package and sent $600 to people so they could go to Walmart and buy flat screen TVs made in China. There you go, that is the wisdom of the average American. Well done!!!
Mulli: ” Buy when the time is right for you”
Simple question based on your statement:
Can you please characterize in yoru words the effectiveness of the typical local RE buyer to decide when the time is right to buy?
If you were to look at recent events, and have high standards for decision making - there is only one conclusion that can be drawn OBJECTIVELY. Yes? No?
Fact: there are laws in place and will bein place because of THE VERY REALIZATION THAT PEOPLE TYPICALLY DO NOT MAKE THAT DECISION CAREFULLY AS THEY SHOULD.
Prior post never went through: short version…
Inventory - any predictions on what the Fed will be doing with all those homes in the portfolios they will be buying up at huge discounts?
something tells me that seeing they are in the business of enhancing home ownership - they will not be sitting on empty homes very long.
What will hit first? The lending standards of old that allowed people to borrow more than 4X income and accept huge amount of risk? or those empty homes hitting the market in droves? Seeing they are already empty - there are no notification laws that will control the flow of those hitting the market.
Will it happen that way? Noone can say for sure? What people should be asking themselves is if they WILL BE AFFECTED BY IT when they make decisions for themselves today!!
not buying it:
you are so right.
Mulli is trusting the average American who can’t balance their own check books to make these kinds of expensive decisions.
The people who have bought in the last few months were saying to themselves “I’m buying a home 25% cheaper than what I would have paid in 2005″
My answer to these suckers is “yes, and even with recent price drops you are still paying 100% more than what you would have paid in 2000″
I’m free market person so I don’t have a problem with people making stupid decision. My problem is that these recent buyer will be asking to be bailed out by the rest of us in a year or two. That is my problem.
We already let these morons buy homes left and right during the boom and we now know where that took us.
VOR … I wasn’t predicting the future. I was just doing what Gary “in the bag” Watts does.
“I only forecast off the numbers … It’s all based on pure economics.” ~ Gary Watts, Orange County Register, 10/23/2005
test test test
# Mulliganville Says: “test test test”
That is the smartest thing you have said in a long time.
More character revelations…witty you are not.
come on Mulli, don’t you have any sense of humor?
The Dow is only down 600 points right now. Trust me, it feels good to be 100% in cash.
I have a tremendous sense of humor.
I’m free market person so I don’t have a problem with people making stupid decision. My problem is that these recent buyer will be asking to be bailed out by the rest of us in a year or two. That is my problem.
We already let these morons buy homes left and right during the boom and we now know where that took us.
This statement is very true! Bulls can’t even look at recent history to make these common sense deductions. All the while we have the likes of Barney Frank, telling the bears (realists) to be quiet, that we might uncover the truth to this scam. This enlightenment is what we need. Maybe then it, will sink in with the folks that are still trying to buy a house that is out of their reach.
There will still be the defense of “realtors are just trying to make a living”. Come on “Gold Jackets”, you want another bail out, don’t you?
btw, I’m not shorting the market because you can’t trust the Federal government. They’ll keep intervening and distorting the market so stay away from shorting. Just sit back and watch how things implode.
I’m sorry for all those people who are going to lose their jobs and homes but it had to happen. Anybody with half of brain would have seen this coming (sorry Mulli)
But wait, Mulli says that things are not that bad, so follow Steve Thomas advice and go buy yourself a home before you lose your job. Then, you’ll figure out how to pay the mortgage for the “cheap” home you just bought.
Fox News is running a great analysis of our economic crisis. All voters must watch this hour show before voting. Indeed, it does appear the democrats are the main suspects in our economic collapse. It appears the loud democratic claim that Bush and Wall Street are guilty may be a smoke screen. Watch Fox News.
jimmy2,
Even if it were true that the dems are behind the whole mess (I believe both have a lot to blame along with a whole bunch of other people up and down the economic chain), no libs are going to believe anything put out by fox.
Jimmy2:
Fox news blaming Democrats?
What a surprise?
Fox news and great analysis; that is another surprise.
“All voters must watch this hour show before voting. Indeed, it does appear the democrats are the main suspects in our economic collapse”
Sorry dude. Too late. I agree with you that Democrats were more responsible of this crisis but the fact is that most voters are going to blame republicans since they have the white house.
hey Jimmy,
I wonder if this 700 drop in the Dow is going to affect your friends in CdM.
LOL.
the phrase is libtard ponee…
Bubbs: just today I said I underestimated the veracity of this problem. You could have said, “cool Mulli…glad to hear that coming from you.” See, even in a moment when you have an opportunity to recognize someone like myself has a different view than say a year ago, you continue to pile on. This is where your character (lack thereof) comes out. How to lose friends and alienate people…by national bubble.
I do believe there will be more downward pressure…how much more? IDK. But not 40% like Bill thinks. That is his opinion and I simply disagree with it. BTW, those that are buying today, probably are gauging similar future declines. Rates are great today and inventory is plentiful. A good recipe for someone who is financially stable and wants a home for years to come for their family, and does not need to time the bottom perfectly.
Mulli, i wish you were right.
Unfortunately the truth of the matter is, those that are buying today don’t have a clue what is happening. Many of them will ultimately be casualties in this deflationary death spiral.
This is similar to the tech bubble, I could show you sales volume from suckers who bought as values were crashing……… well the capitulation continued…..
We have not seen a capitulation yet in either the stock market or the housing market.
I expect that both are coming soon.
Now, those of you read this book back in April are probably pretty happy today since you are most likely out of the market and not losing a penny.
High conforming (max of $729,750) 30 yr. fixed is 5.625%
Jumbo up to $6 million 30 yr. fixed 6.625%
Bankers Funding is the lender…a division of Wells Fargo.
Mulligan, it doesn’t matter what rates are.
It matters what it takes to get those loans in terms of cash and income and job stability.
In a deflationary environment getting a zero return is a good return.
Where would you want you money:
1) Stock market ( joke )
2) Inland real estate ( nope )
3) Banks ( good luck )
4) CdM dirt.
4 is the best option.
world currencies is the best option in a deflationary environment
20% down required…and yes, you cannot be a deadbeat. My point was they are lending money. It is tight as it should be…loosey goosey got us here.
Mulliganville Says: “High conforming (max of $729,750) 30 yr. fixed is 5.625%”
Here is Mulli’s advice:
Go buy a home, interest rates are still very low and they don’t make any more land in South County anymore. Don’t worry about home prices going down. Who cares if you 700K home goes down another 20%, you are ONLY losing 140K but think about the tax deduction and the fact that your kids won’t have to move every couple of years like renters do (unless you are forced to move out due to a foreclosure or course lol).
If you feel that this is the right time for you to buy a home, just follow your realtor’s advice and don’t worry if you lose 140K of your hard earned money. If you feel this is right time for you to buy a huge flat screen TV, go ahead and buy it. It’s all about timing in life.
Yeah right!!! Good luck following that advice.
mulligan, another point that might interest you
holding debt in a deflationary environment is the worst possible thing you can do
Mulli,
I do give you credit for acknowledging the problem at hand. That is the first step in becoming a realist, facing the impending data with objectivity.
As for the statement ” BTW, those that are buying today, probably are gauging similar future declines. Rates are great today and inventory is plentiful. A good recipe for someone who is financially stable and wants a home for years to come for their family, and does not need to time the bottom perfectly.”
I do have issues with advising an emotional decision without investigation of the current data. I would question the decision to buy today, gauging future declines, because it is not fundamentally sound. Why buy at inflated rates, with inflated property tax, and interest when you know the decline is very likely. These are going to be the next round of people who want to be bailed out. Even if they can afford the current price, how will they view the situation when 20% or more declines happen in their neighborhoods? We know the answer to that, it’s to walk away…
Mulliganville Says: “See, even in a moment when you have an opportunity to recognize someone like myself has a different view than say a year ago, you continue to pile on.”
Mulli, if you read my previous post you’ll see that I already gave you credit for admitting that you were wrong and I was right.
NationalBubble.com Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 9:41 am
“I will happily admit that I underestimated the veracity of the problem. ”
Now, we are finally getting somewhere with you.
Jimmy2,
Right now, cash is king. You would tie up any liquidity you have with a long term depreciating asset? You are ignoring the buy low, sell high standard. You most certainly are not buying LOW.
Cash is king … where do you store it. In the bank? What if the banking crisis gets worse? The euro banks are in TROUBLE. Hard assets are the only way to go. Forget any financial asset.
There are a few ETF’s that MIGHT work out, if the govt. will let the markets play out like they should. SDS and QID are a good place to start.
Mulli,
I try not to name call.
I actually have little against most dems except for the ones who protest everything and try to disrupt anything that they don’t agree with (yet they are freedom loving yeah right). Those ones piss me off. How often do you see Republicans prostest or try to disrupt Democrat events but you almost always have them at Republican events.
The biggest complaint I have about Democrats policies is the lack of responsability they have for their own actions.
Jimmy, you need a course on the Great Depression.
Oh well you will learn.
It is how you say things Bubbs…For example, there are about 40 different meanings for the word “hello.” Your approach is callus, abrasive, and you essentially are in love with yourself. So, we are back to character…take a long look in the mirror if you are really that happy with yourself. And do not worry, I am staying on “my side of the tracks.” Funny, I do not see oil wells from Mission Viejo…
Fiber: this is where most of you just do not admit how the typical consumer prods along about their business. They are not going to analyze things the way you all would. They do not function like Peter Schiff’s fraternity and membership brigade. I know…I deal with them in this industry regularly. They make calculations on a per month expenditure. They always have and they always will.
mav: to each his own…if someone is ready to buy, they will buy. If they are not, they will not. This is where Leo was correct yesterday: in today’s market, nobody is being talked into anything…it is willful. They are certainly well informed due to the tremendous late coverage of Wall St.’s mismanagement and miscalculation of their “insurance policies”… their CDS’s. This deregulated aspect of their business was the main problem behind this entire situation, in my opinion. They gambled and lost. And they continued to gamble prior to the first massive wave of sub-primes resets, which propelled this situation to levels we are seeing today.
Bush was right…Wall St. WAS drunk…they are finally sobering up it seems.
“” Funny, I do not see oil wells from Mission Viejo…”
Well, there are no oil wells in Haiti but you would have to live there.
bubble says:
“The Dow is down right now 533 and the losses are accelerating. What do you call that smart guy?
We passed the 150 Billion stimulus package and sent $600 to people so they could go to Walmart and buy flat screen TVs made in China. There you go, that is the wisdom of the average American. Well done!!!”
I call that stupid government and greedy lending practices. You call it: “So, don’t tell me that the American consumer knows better because the vast majority of them know nothing about finances.”
You are clearly one angry old man.
Mulli,
I think you are one that agrees to disagree when someone has an alternative position. Where bubble is more interested in rubbing it in although I agree with him more on what is going on and the direction of the future.
I find discussing things with your point of view much better (less comedic value though) then lets say Jimmy2, Sigh/Helen, Provider/Thoughtful(My she rest in Peace), sure, trs, shockg, rants. You have a opinion, most of the time I disagree, but you are not abrasive. I respect that.
Bubble.
Mulli ain’t that bad. I guess there are far less crazies in here anymore so there are less people to attack. He is far less nutty then some of the posters above.
Don’t you believe it is ultimetly the responability of the buyer on whether they should buy right now. A salesperson is always going to try and sell you seomthing. It is up to you to decide if you are going to buy it. If you are not smart enough to see the potential risks that is not the salespersons fault, it is yours.
I agree that sales people are going to sell something, but I do have issue when the taxpayer has to pick up the shortfall. Someone or and industry needs to be held accountable.
fiber,
That is why I am strongly against bailouts. This just sets bad precedencts. It is telling everybody don’t worry the government will take care of you if you fall. Bubble doesn’t want a bailout but says that Americans are too stupid to make their own decisions.
I say if they make stupid decisions oh well thats on them. My choices in life have led me to my current place (good and bad). I don’t believe I am entitled to anything.
I was opposed to the bailout, too.
It’s a good thing that the Republican party hasn’t had any power over the last 25 years. That way we can blame all of our woes on Carter, the most powerful and popular President ever, one whose policies could never be modified, let alone overturned…
Though I seem to remember in 2006 not hearing any conservatives blaming Carter for their home values skyrocketing and the stock markets doing so well. That rise was only because of Republican policies.
Better go watch FOX and find out more facts that push the blame on the other side…. Personal responsibility, yeah right.
“Bubble doesn’t want a bailout but says that Americans are too stupid to make their own decisions.”
so? what is the contradiction in my statement?
We are in this mess, because lenders, the government and the US consumers were greedy and stupid
and no, I don’t want the government to make things worse by bailing out all those people who made stupid decisions.
Right now, we have no choice but to regulate the financial markets to prevent this from happening again.
“I don’t believe I am entitled to anything.”
I’m like that too. Obviously we are not the typical Americans.
Jimmy2: “Hard assets are the only way to go. Forget any financial asset.”
To start out - that is not entirely accurate. There are and will continue to be a few investments that can be made quite safely with some return - more return then local RE will make.
Not all foreign currencies are poised for a meltdown
Besides, there are some growing economies in which good deals can be leveraged right now to secure handsome returns when this is over. I’m talking about actual businesses.
Now if you are referring to non-local RE, then I would say, yes, there are places that are seeing and will continue to see steady, healthy appreciation (healthy in that it is not double digit - too fast and there can be exposure to other problems since that would be a speculative market like our local market typically is)
Do me and everyone the favor by being objective at least once in your life and state the true reality. You consistently come across as if CDM is the only logical place to throw money at. You are worse than Gross from Pimco - pure marketing - no reasoning.
Spare me the “I am not an agent and this is not marketing” BS - it is as much beneath you as it is I.
My old house in CDM is still showing a 500% rise over 1998.
It has room to correct.
fiberguy: “My problem is that these recent buyer will be asking to be bailed out by the rest of us in a year or two. That is my problem.”
That is a very common problem. Just so happens to not be one that RE agents would share with you.
They make money if it sells for a steep discount or windfall profit - that is what so many fail to understand. I believe Mulli has explained it very well and he’s an agent!! Yet, people will continue to listen to those with the only intent to sell and the buyer purchases based on no research of their own but instead the so called advice they receive from others.
Hell - don’t even take my info or anyone else’s - I only ask that you get that info for yourself before making the decision to buy and definitely before putting yourself into a position where you end up needing to ask for charity when one risk exposure is realized.
GAW: “My old house in CDM is still showing a 500% rise over 1998.
It has room to correct.”
So that means CDM will continue to rise in value in the near term?
Reasoning man - stick to reasoning.
What you noted only shows how much room there is to fall. Buying now in CDM means you will realize that loss, before any gains are seen. Waiting would be a smart man’s move with good credit - use those short term rates when they actually do make you money and buy at the bottom - period. end of story. Do that instead of buying now and I guarantee you will have more equity 7 years from now. With a lower payment and less taxes to boot. Its all based on logic - zero emotion.
Mulli: “My point was they are lending money. It is tight as it should be”
Right on!!
NBI and others,
I don’t have time to retype my long winded response to Leo and Mulli last. It was apparently too much for the moderator to digest, as they didn’t post it.
In a nutshell, I would like to see how cautious realtors, underwrites, and bankers there would be if they knew they would be charged back any commissions or bonus from a failed loan! I bet Mulli or Leo would have a vested interest in qualifying there clients then. Kind of funny, these charge backs are a standard in most other sales environments.
@Not buying it, that was my point, I might not have been clear enough.
CDM hasn’t even begun to correct yet.
I’m having troubles with word press, so if this is a repeat, sorry.
Thx ponee…’preciate it.
Mulliganville Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 9:32 am
“I will happily admit that I underestimated the veracity of the problem. I have never claimed to be a “know-it-all.” ”
—
Never fear Mulli, all here know you aren’t a “know-it-all”. You’ve done a fine job of making that obvious.
Maybe a bit of a blow hard - - - prone to use terms, phrases and words you have seen and heard others use that sounded good to you even when you didn’t understand. Then you adopt them and make it obvious that education is not a prerequisite to becoming a “professional” realtor.
“Veracity”.
It’s a good word when used in the proper context.
Yes pdu, I underestimated the truth of the problem. Like several months ago, when I extended courtesy to you out of the blue one weekend…since then, your jerk-o-meter has kicked into high gear.
It’s been forever since I was last on this site. Mulli - are you huddling into a nice, warm bear cave now?
Jimmy2 gets his news from Fox!… is this a surprise to anyone?
Ask Steve Thomas how many of the “sales” (that actually close) are “buy and bailers.”
I personally know of many. Look around, who else would be buying in this environment unless it was someone desperate to ditch their higher/resetting payments? My neighbors (who cashed out their equity line just in time), just put it all down on another house. They told me they are going to “rent out” one, but who are we kidding?? Over the weekend they had a garage sale to clear out some stuff and I heard them bragging about the buy and bail to some of our other neighbors.
Some of these neighbors went home with “a look” (inspiration?) on their faces - I bet there will be alot more garage sales and moving out in my neighborhood before this is over. The irresponsibility of some people just sickens me. And no, we are not talking about the areas of OC that the bulls always slam. I live in a coastal town.
4000+ square feet house on the market for 200+ days, about to go REO to the bank, built in the late 80’s in HB Harbor just went into escrow, at less than $290 per square foot. How much less, has yet to be seen.
Yes Jimmy2, we’re “all subprime now.”
Day Traders/Speculators - How do you like the Stock Market now? It’s gone down 30% within the year, but you know that, and you still bought. Why didnt you see it coming here? Why dont you start a Stock Blog that says, DO NOT BUY STOCKS. It’s bound to go down, let’s play the waiting game and when I can afford it and it’s equivalent with my income (the portion that I want to invest) then I will buy. Then we’ll come up with some lame FUNDAMENTAL ratio on how much you can invest in the STOCK MARKET based on income.
DTS (Day Trader Speculator)
DTS - I’m still buying stocks even though it’s gone down
Sure - Why?
DTS - Umm, I think it’s gonna go up
Sure - That sounds like speculatiion
DTS - Well, I cant afford a home so I dont know what to do
Sure - Why dont you just save up like everybody else and buy when you have 20% down
DTS - But home prices are dropping another 40%, I’ll buy it then
Sure - Umm, But stocks gonna drop another 25%, why dont you wait and buy that then?
DTS - Umm, I can afford to play the STOCK MARKET. Anyways, it’s like Poker Chips, It’s not real money. I’m gambling but it’s fun. Like I dont blame realtors for my problems, I blame myself for investing in stupid stocks.
Sure - Can you stop?
DTS - It’s an addiction, I dont know how
Sure - You need help
DTS - I know, that’s why I’m blogging. I dont want to blame people buying homes but I dont know what else to do. I’m losing all this money in the stock market and it has nothing to do with these buyers but umm, it’s just hopeless for me. Do you understand
Sure - It’s OK to be wrong, you’re OK. Keep telling yourself that…
The End
Mulli,
If it helps, “veracity” is a noun. It should be used as a noun. Trying to help you here.
Courtesy from a grump I don’t need.
Sure, many of have be in cash.
I have……… yeah baby!
a dollar a year from now will be worth more than a dollar today
why?
deflation…. get with the program
i’d reccomend a diversified portfolio of world currencies
check the record please……
in a deflationary environment even a 0% return is a good return
Sure, in your situation your best choice is to mail in the keys.
that’s a fact, jack….
mav-
Do you think the Fed’s ability to print dollars will be dwarfed by the credit contraction?
I know where you’re coming from, but I have hard time believing the Fed won’t turn the printing presses on to flood us with new dollars.
This is something that 1930’s US and 1990’s Japan didn’t do.
….. LL they can turn on the printing presses until the rest of the world dumps our dollar…… in the short term my other currencies will just be worth more…..
….. true inflation does not come from printing dollars….
…. it comes from credit expansion…
… when credit contracts you have asset deflation…….
…. we have already seen about 20 years of inflation wrapped up in the previous 7 - 8 years from the credit bubble…..
… japan let the lending rate go negative….
… in the 1930s we witnessed a similar credit contraction…
… printing dollars does not necessary lead to true inflation….
… it does lead to chaos…
…. good luck….
Untill someone understands that the average joe or joe six-pack and his or her family making $60k to $120k a year can not afford a $600k house then the problems will just continue. Once these homes became priced to a point where lenders had to come up with all manner of “creative” ways to get hte loan financed that should have been the first clue to Wall St. there is nothing wrong with making the credit requirements more lax so that more people could afford to buy, the problem is when every RE agent in America think that the next house they sell is worth $20k more than the last house they sold in the same neighborhood.
Fortunatly it is a terminal cycle, the problem is it terminates in the manner in which it is doing today.