Shopoff
William Shopoff, CEO of the land-investment firm bearing his name, is a real estate man first and foremost. So when a neighbor made an unsolicited offer to buy his Emerald Bay home for $12 million more than he paid two years earlier, Shopoff accepted the offer and moved to a more modest abode further down the coast. His $34.5 million price tag is just a half million bucks shy of the O.C. record.
The four-year-old, Irvine-based Shopoff Group offers real estate investments for high-net worth clients. Projects range from several home developments in Lake Elsinore to a Riverside County industrial site and a 90-unit, ocean-view condo project on the big island of Hawaii.
More recently, the Shopoff Group announced that its relatively new Shopoff Properties Trust Land REIT is now selling shares designed for investors of more moderate means. The trust hopes to raise $200 million, with plans to spend $600 million in the next 2 1/2 years buying land in California, Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Hawaii.
We asked Shopoff, quoted recently in the Wall Street Journal, to share his insights into the current housing market.
Us: How have things changed for your company since the housing slump hit?
Shopoff: Our business has changed in the past 18 months as land sales have been almost nonexistent. We have changed are staff with a focus more on acquisitions than project management. In addition we have added personnel in our broker dealer operation due to the launch of our public company Shopoff Properties Trust. Our posture has been to hold our existing assets for a much longer term than originally planned and add to our asset base with strategic acquisitions over the next 2 to 3 years.
Us: How long until the market recovers in O.C. and Southern California?
Shopoff: I would expect a market bottom to occur in the later half of 2009, possibly extending into 2010 for the Inland Empire. I think the recovery will take some time once we reach bottom. I would expect the $700 Billion Government package … will provide the needed liquidity to the markets to provide support but the bigger problem is a supply/demand imbalance at present.
Us: How much investment does The Shopoff Group have in the Inland Empire and what happened there during this slump?
Shopoff: We currently have between $40 and $50 million in land investments in the Inland Empire. These are worth substantially less than peak values and will require a long term outlook for our investment objectives to be realized. We have slowed our entitlement process on most projects and will wait out the market. There are few projects where we are changing our plan and moving forward with entitlement and some limited development.
Us: With gas prices so high, will there still be as much interest in IE when the slump ends?
Shopoff: I think the Inland Empire will be impacted by higher energy costs, especially in the outlying areas. Our focus has typically been western Riverside County, along the 15 corridor and the 91 freeway. I expect these markets to recover and not be adversely impacted by energy prices as they serve both the commuter, but also the homeowner who works in the county. In addition I think it is easier to buy a less expensive home in the Inland Empire and purchase a more energy efficient car, than it is to acquire a home in Orange County.
Us: Many planners say the environment no longer can sustain endless sprawl because of the cost of energy. They’re forecasting that future developments will be more consolidated around work centers and mass transit. Do you agree?
Shopoff: I think there will be some movement to developing around transit centers and having more dense development patterns but I don’t think this is the end of the suburban development. Many home buyers like the lifestyle associated with life in the suburbs as they get larger homes with yards, along with more extensive amenities offered in many of the larger master plans.
Us: What advice do you have to small investors who may be looking to put some of their assets into real estate? Should they act now, or wait?
Shopoff: I think small investors should proceed with caution. There are definitely opportunities on the horizon, especially in the foreclosures. This requires a high level of market knowledge plus the ability to do some repair or renovation work to maximize one’s return.
Us: What assets should they be looking at? Residential rentals, offices, industrial properties, commercial centers, raw land?
Shopoff: This depends on someone’s skill set and amount of capital. The near term opportunities exist in single-family rentals or rehab/flips coupled with raw land investments. I think the next year or two could offer nice opportunities in the income property business as prices will be begin to pull back due to the lack of financing.
See what other insiders have told Insider Q&A in recent weeks …
- Real estate fraud widespread, state regulator says
- Blame greed,O.C. investment bankers say
- SoCal bottom ‘not near,’ Insider Q&A told
- Housing’s revival to be ’slow and steady,’ PWAR’s Robertson says
- Luxury broker says affluent homebuyers eye Surf City
- Homesellers ‘not shy’ to fire agents, J.D.Power says
- USC professors says housing recovery likely in ‘10
- CPA details tax twists in housing bailout bill
- Insider Q&A hears Fed will ’sit tight’ on rates
- Agent thinks Coto de Caza housing ‘down significantly’
- RadarLogic CEO says inventory a ‘wild card’ for home market
- O.C. rents to be ’stagnant’ for a year, investor says
- Real estate attorney says O.C. office market nears bottom
- Investor says homebuying slump boosts ‘affordable’ rentals
- Century 21 boss sees ‘tremendous’ opportunities
- Pepperdine prof thinks O.C. housing ‘very precarious’
- CEO Rodgers of Prudential California expects ‘09 turnaround
- Meisenbach of Lee & Associates says building sellers unrealistic
- Foremost’s Cameron sees housing comeback in ‘10
- First Team’s Merage thinks it’s 5 years to next peak
Goldman is out there predicting a deep recession, not the mild recessions that the last two were (yes, they were relatively mild historically). Supply in late 2009 is more likely to be worse than now.
There’s an old saying, “nothing drops harder than leveraged dirt!”
We have seen the absolute peek of a 25+ year run in real estate. What seemed so easy and natural for men like Mr. Shopoff, will not return anytime in the near future.
OJ~GUILTY
God Bless the good people of Las Vegas!
Good article from Smart Money regarding renting vs buying.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomebuyingGuide/WhyRentToGetRicher.aspx?page=all
Where’s NationalBubble? We want to hear from our fearless leader, to share with us his vast knowledge about how long and how deep this decline will go. Please come in and enlighten us :) !!
I hear that all Realtors and developers are afraid of this hero. His revelations of the truth and dark secrets are shaking the R.E. market. You are a Maverick !!
mulliganville - If you are reading this today …
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-manhattan-real-estate.html
national bubble is busy building a nuclear bomb shelter.
ARM Reset Graph
http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/files/2007/10/imf-arm-chart.jpg
Just watch how coastal OC will get hit hard in 2009 and let’s see how wealthy the “wealthy” neighborhoods of Orange County really are.
Hey Awgee…thanks…good read.
NATIONAL BUBBLE IS OUT ENJOYING LIFE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHILE U GOOF BALLS SIT AROUND AND BLOGG ALL DAY GOOD RIDENS TO ALL OF YOU. GET A LIFE
It is riddance. Get a dictionary.
Oh, and thanks for coming onto the blog to tell your fellow bloggers they are wasting their time. You can now continue to inhale Bubble’s jock.
If the OCR is still seeking to cut costs, I would suggest canning Jon Lasner!
It’s amazing I really want to just punch that picture on my monitor - can he be any more smarmy looking - maybe a Snidley Whiplash mustache for the win?
Yeah, let me clue everyone in on something - there will be NO recovery in 2009, just so you know this guy wishes there was one from his position in the industry that relies on one…but alas there will be squaduche recovery next year. To believe in anything else is just folly and only madness is at the end of that road - you might as well look for unicorns and fairies.
Seriously, people scoffed when I made 50% off the peak claims, now JP Morgan is saying 58% in California, I guess I was too conservative.
Here is an interesting video on the whole thing.
http://serve.castfire.com/video/26078/26078_2008-09-25-215549.mp4
May you live in interesting time….I guess that would be now.
If you get nothing when you click on Patricio’s SOCAL Connected video, try this link: http://kcet.org/socal/2008/09/foreclosure-alley.html
Buy a yurt, houses are done for.
Wow that Smart Money article is s-o-o persuasive. All those averages prove you can’t make money on a house in Southern California, and stocks are a sure fire winner. Gosh I’m going to dump my comfortable house in south county and find an apartment right away. I like hearing somebody else’s stereo at 2 a.m.
I’am sure recovery will come as soon as we pay 11.700 billion $$$ governement deficit back…
George-
It’s hard to believe, it’s not billion, but trillion.
It’s also hard to remember that the debt fell from $8 trillion to $6 trillion under President Clinton’s administration; and that he shrank the size of government that he had authority over.
Harder to even believe that a democrat was the only President in the last maybe 50-80 years to do that, and that a Republican president would then DOUBLE the size of the debt.
Goldwater must be spinning in his grave.
hey einstein likes it– while you were hanging out in
your over-priced, value plunging south county house-
alot of things have happened here in status symbol land-
let me update you real quick– theres an over abundance
of vacant HOUSES that are in foreclosure because the
home debtors didnt feel like overpaying on a declining asset-
this means not only do renters have the choice of renting an
apartment but they can also rent a house- pretty neat huh?
secondly the unemployment rate in california is going
ballistic which is going to exaserbate the foreclosure problems
which will in turn exaserbate the plunging price of homes- are
you starting to see a trend here? the state of california is so
broke that arnold had to go to washington with his tin cup
asking for billions in donations to prevent our state from imploding-
these items of interest arent mentioned on wheel of fortune which explains why you were unaware of them- theres a phrase that describes people like you perfectly– stuck on stupid
Marcia, your right the republicans had congress for 12 years, and the presidency for 8. They have systematically robbed all of us for re-election. The problem is not the party although; it is those who are naive enough to continue to vote into power those whose only care is re-election, or antiquated ideologies.
I don’t think the democrats can help us at this point either. We need real leadership and none is on the horizon.
My suggestion it to vote out all incumbents. We need to clean the house, the senate and the white house.
We need to restore the American middle and working class. It is an endangered species due to corporate profit put above American ideals and laws.
Unfortunately we have no leader on our ballots.
The future is quite grim.
Next step to fall, and I mean significantly — RENTS! Landlords are losing their pricing power in our real estate dependent economy.
Here is the adjusted gross income for Laguna Niguel per Melissa Data … they only go up to 2005:
2000 ~ $97,340
2001 ~ $86,304
2002 ~ $82,384
2003 ~ $91,543
2004 ~ $101,032
2005 ~ $102,247
I like to use Laguna Niguel because I know a lot people from the REIC live there. Notice how incomes dropped after the tech bubble, then started rising again after subprime started rolling.
I wonder what incomes will look like in LN by 2009? My guess, $82,000. Then you include inflation, and we’ve got a real problem.
One more point; a lot of these people are going to leave Orange County, and the beneficiaries will likely be the Midwest, Arizona, Utah and more into Nevada. Maybe we’ll get lucky, and Gary “in the bag” Watts will move too.
Forgiveness is the most powerful force in the universe.
It’s amazing to me how everyone thinks the real estate market is in shambles. Maybe for the people who bought within the last few years that may be true. How about us who haven’t bought yet? We still rent and are waiting for the right time to buy:) I showed a client a home today in Costa Mesa for $475,000. Just a cookie cutter 4 bedroom single story built in 1957. It needed a lot of work. An hour after I showed it, I found out it already had multiple offers and one at $575,000 that the bank was going to take. I realize the Inland Empire is in the trash can but OC for those that didn’t buy, things look fantastic. Can’t any of your bears just admit it? If prices come down ANY further, the demand will overflow and pricing will have to rise. It’s all about supply and demand folks.
I know all you day traders, speculators and bears will come back and tell me that the current soaring demand we experience (which Lasner confirmed in an earlier article) is not the historical norms. Who cares about historical norms. I am living in today’s norms not yesterday!
leo– its amazing to you because youre clueless
there used to be a big mouth blowhard blogger
who went by the ingenious name EZMONEY- he
would come on this very blog and mock me for
being so bearish on the real estate market– I predicted
that he would eventually disappear from the blog from
the sheer embarrassment of having been so wrong–
I was right of course- hes nowhere to be found hiding
like the little bitch that he is- and so we have another clueless
moron to take his place on the hall of shame– leo
If you bought before 2003 and sold by 2007, it was EZMONEY.
It is a hall of shame Rant Because you guys just have nothing positive to say even when there is something factually written that is positive. It’s all doom and gloom with you guys. FYI, I wasn’t one of the agents that made it “big” I got started in OC in 1/1/06, so as you can see I didn’t have the luxury of talking my clients into buying a home like one of you bears once suggested. You bears think we can talk our clients into buying a home. That is the silliest thing I have ever heard. How could I be “clueless” on real estate when I am out there every day and see and hear exactly what happens. Clueless is living in New York and telling you the temperature of Miami Florida. You can call me a little bitch if it makes you feel better, but please don’t call me clueless. Just because you didn’t buy in 2002 and sell in 2006 and still rent because you are afraid to buy, don’t take it out on me. I still sell real estate in a bad market so I must not be clueless. I may be dumb but I’m not clueless. In your world it is always raining, there is a constant marine layer and you haven’t see the sun or ocean in way too long. Sales are up my friend and soaring with demand as we speak. I don’t care if it is $200,000 off from the peak. I’m busy. Come out from under the rock you live in, have a very cold beer and step out into the sunlight and wake up. Are you blogging from the Inland Empire because if you are, now I understand your bitterness:) LOL
I know Leo…2600 people last month said, “the time is right for me.” Nobody knows the future. You do not have to time the bottom PERFECTLY. Unless of course if you have been bearish on RE for the last 5 years. Then, well, you might feel you have to time the bottom.
Mulli are you really supporting Leo’s view that supply and demand forces are going to turn this market around soon? And then prices will start to rise again? You are more seasoned than two years and should know better than to endorse a statement like that. No one does know the future but do you really honestly support the idea that the prices cannot drop any further and if they do we will start to see home prices rise????
This is the problem people have with RE agents and their claims. So many market forces besides sales that come into play and they are all pointing to a further slide in prices with a flat market proceeding.
Stash, I am not actively working the general RE market. What I am saying is that most of the bears den discredits any activity in the current market. To them, it seems to be the worst thing someone can do. Really…says who? We do not know these families situations. It is good enough for them. It was OK for THOSE families at THIS time. Why is that not OK to recognize? Why must EVERYONE wait until rants et al indicates it is OK to purchase? You do see how that is what you all are saying, do you not?
Leo,
There have been countless realtors on this blog and they all have told the exact same con job as you are doing now.
Anyone who has anything positive to say about a crisis of historic proportions is a plain and simple fool.
Everyone knows what you’re trying to do.
If everyone thinks of rainbows and lollipops all of the real problems will simply go away.
You were able to talk the foreclosure victims into blindly thinking positive and it bit them hard.
You and other realtors need to stop dreaming and wake up to reality.
Your examples are a joke.
Anyone can bid on a home, even people with horrible credit.
Multiple offers and $100,000 bidding wars don’t exist anymore and won’t exist for a very long time.
From what I can see, out of the few offers that come in, a large percentage don’t even meet the minimum credit qualifications, bringing a high percentage of homes back on the market shortly after they hit escrow.
We all know prices will continue to go down for years.
Buying a home now when prices are likely to lose another 40% is beyond foolish.
I suggest you find a much younger, more naive crowd to spew your slanted sales pitch to.
Mulli I never said people shouldn’t buy and I never said they should be chastized but I personally just don’t want these people to walk away in two years becuase they are underwater. Every person has a reason to buy and some may have great reasons that make sense right now. What you neglected to address is that Leo is saying that market demand will turn this into a rising market if price declines continue?? You know this is very unlikely. Not impossible becuase even winning the lottery is not impossible but very, very unlikely. This is all I am pointing out.
If he can make a living in this market I don’t doubt him becuase I don’t know what he does but any positive news in the RE market is so overshadowed by negative news it is easy to discredit it. I never said anyone has to wait to buy but I think it is a good idea.
Mulli says:
“We do not know these families situations. It is good enough for them”
How many times have we heard that pitch?
So when would it be a good enough time for a family to instantly lose equity and possibly another 40% of their home value from purchasing now?
I personally don’t think it would ever be a good time for a family to lose money, but that’s just me.
She had the right idea and caved. The bill did not change enough and she should have stuck to her guns. The perfect storm was made better, stronger and will last longer.
Blogger it keeps telling me this is a duplicate statemnet but it does not show up???
I have tried several times to post it so I will try in sections.
Dear Friend:
Thank you for contacting me regarding the financial rescue legislation (H.R.1424). I appreciate hearing from you on this critical issue.
The fundamentals of our economy have been shaken, and Americans are deeply concerned. When Secretary Paulson and Chairman Bernanke placed an urgent phone call a few weeks ago to Congress to say we needed emergency action to prevent a major financial meltdown, I expected they would come forward with a plan that was targeted and reasonable, with appropriate oversight and taxpayer protections.
Unfortunately, what they brought us was a $700 billion blank check, which they asked us to sign with no questions asked. This plan contained no oversight, no taxpayer equity, and no control over CEO pay. I strongly opposed this proposal - and thanks to your phone calls, e-mails, and letters, Congress stopped it in its tracks.
Bill, it’s obvious you have no clue what you are talking about. If you don’t think multiple offers are occurring on a daily basis on bank owned homes then you are talking from your back side because you just don’t know. You said “From what I can see”, that is your problem, you don’t see it because it is raining in your world with a constant marine layer. Want another example? I just sold a home in Ladera 2 weeks ago with only a 3 week escrow. They paid ALL cash and closed it by wiring their funds in. It was bank owned on the market 7 days with multiple offers. The asking price was $629,900 and it sold for $627,000. This was a multiple situation but not an overbid. There are many overbids happening and Mulli will back it up. I didn’t talk these people into buying, they walked into my open house and told me what they wanted. I just find them a home they are ready to buy. Go back to sleep as that is what bears do and let us “real” estate agents make our money in the worst market you have ever seen. Good night. Oh, I didn’t know this blog was for senior citizens. Thanks for clarifying it. Are you still planning for Y2K? LOL. Lastly, your statement of “We all know home prices will continue to go down for years” is funny. You hope they do so one day you can afford to buy . Clear off your beer goggles and have another! Lasner should call this blog “The Bear Blog” because that is truly the only people you want on here. You and your cubs want it to rain every day. You should move to Seattle and then maybe you would be happy.
To Stashingmycash, you don’t read and understand correctly. I was only telling you that there is so much demand at the under $600,000 market that if those prices came down anymore demand would double. You know what that would do to prices, right? I wasn’t making a claim, I was just telling you what is happening today in the trenches. Don’t worry, I won’t post many more times here because it is for people who are hoping the world will collapse. None of you bears can see past your nose and you refuse to accept news that doesn’t match your views. One last thing, I did not say demand is everywhere, but certain areas are huge in demand and if THOSE bank owned homes go lower, demand will rise for sure and then you know what happens next. Let me take you and your bears out 1 day on a new bank owned listing in say Fountain Valley, Huntington Beach, Irvine and MANY other cities and we’ll sit in front of the house to watch the activity of agents showing the home and you will witness it yourself. Lots of people have 20% down, good credit etc. This isn’t the Inland Empire.
I realize you think it is a good idea to wait…naturally you can appreciate Realtors being thankful there are people in the marketplace today…notable due to all of the bearish news. And I think that is his point. With all of the negative info out there, people are still buying homes. With 20% down requirements, etc. That is 2600 families which are coming in with $100,000 cash on avg. to get it done.
On a side note, my own bank just sent me a $50,000 line of credit pre-approved app. I thought debt was the problem here. What are these CEO’s doing? Are they out of their minds? Why on earth would they send that to me at this point in time? Does this make sense in light of our current situation?
I cannot answer your question Bill. It is not a line. Each purchase is subjective and, as I have mentioned previously, there is no way these families do not understand what is happening in the market today. Personally, I agree with you that future price declines seem to be in order. But, if I am working to feed my family, I am going to do just that…feed them. In this economic climate, adults that are buying RE know the game and the stakes…especially in OC.
The Senate made major improvements designed to strengthen our economy and protect our taxpayers. Instead of a blank check, the Senate plan included significant Congressional oversight, equity for taxpayers, curbs on executive compensation, an increase in FDIC insurance protection for bank depositors, middle-class tax relief, and job-creating tax incentives for renewable energy. The bill passed the Senate by an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote of 74-25 and the House by a vote of 263-171.
These were very important changes. But let me be honest: There were still aspects of this package that I didn’t like. I preferred the government acquiring more equity instead of toxic assets. I wanted the package to be put forward in smaller installments and to include more checks and balances to make sure it would work.
I give up on trying to post this letter from Boxer. Blogger what is wrong with my post????
Leo, stay on the blog…the contrarian voice needs to be heard.
I welcome you to stay Leo becuase this is a free country but that doesn’t mean I agree with you. There is demand yes but even price declines under 600K will not cause demand to make this a rsing market. This is my opnion and you have yours. No one knows the future but a good salesmen knows how to combat objections so if you really want to sharpen your sales skills, then find people who are much harder to convince and work at ways you can.
If the median income is in the 80k range how can we have continued demand without exotic loans? Eventually the qualified people will have all bought and then what?
Mulli, I will for a while. I am not trying to get ANYONE to agree with my view. My view is mine and mine only. I am only reporting what is happening, not what I wish would happen or hope to happen, but only what is actually going on in today’s market. I do think price declines will continue in most areas but not all. It really doesn’t matter because people always have to buy and always have to sell. I am renting and have been since 2006. I am happy for that and just waiting to try and time the market that bests helps me.
Stashingmycash, you don’t have to agree with me my friend, I am just reporting from the trenches. If you feel all the qualified people will dry up, then that is your opinion. I don’t know if it will happen or not? There are a ton of people with 20% down. Here’s more truth, I can get a loan at 5% down. Yes 5% down. The problem is that on most bank owned homes (under $600,000) there are many more people with more down and fully approved for a loan. I don’t make this up, I see it everyday. Go try and buy a under $600,000 in Irvine and you’ll see what I am talking about.
Leo,
Either your (7 days with multiple offers) makes you the luckiest realtor in the world or your pitch has a serious glitch.
A quick search in Ladera Ranch reviles an average market time of 140 days and the 7 day average is climbing over 150 days.
Market action is also dropping close to historic lows, which further contradicts your scenario.
Your other statement “There are many overbids happening” is quite deceiving also.
Can you show us where many listing prices were overbid?
We will be waiting.
Your averages don’t count when it comes to bank owned homes. And that is all I was discussing. Yes, Ladera is continuing to decline but bank owned homes (and these are 45% of our market) have their own set of stat’s and if you want to see multiple offers, give me your email and I’ll send them to you now. Give me your email big mouth and I’ll back it with facts.
Bill, you must have been a sleep when this came out: http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/10/03/homebuying-doubles-or-more-in-17-oc-zips/4334.
And it wasn’t 7 days, it was a 2 week escrow. I’m waiting on your email.
Leo,
This is a public forum, so let’s air this out here.
I have nothing to hide, unless your phony document might make you look bad to other bloggers.
Different name, same old crap “Thoughtful”
By the way, I did read “housing doubles’ Newport Beach sold 2 homes instead of 1 last month.
Let’s break out the champagne!
Bank owned inventory is climbing, not shrinking, like you seem to think.
http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/index.html
as usual the leos of the world tell us all about
these great sales they are making–
WITHOUT VERIFICATION– LIKE THE ADDRESS
until I see verifiable PROOF I dont believe a damn
thing you say- as mulliphony will attest to
It is still in order to buy a house in OC at current prices you will need to have at least $200000.00 yearly income , were are Mr. Leo’s clients coming , from Russia , the “Oligarkhs” ?I don’t believe that in O.C. you will have that many people that are making that much money and don’t have already house… Even if they are making that much money,they could be smarth enough to know , that they can rent and buy the same house that they are renting in 2 years, at least 30% cheaper…
I have nothing to hide either. Here is the stats I just took off the MLS: I went bank 2 months to 8/1/08 and chose detached bank owned homes that SOLD under $700,000 with at least 3 bedrooms and 1000 SqFt. There were 293 homes that SOLD and closed escrow during this time frame county wide. Of all these, the average sales price was 97% of asking price. Do you understand what that means? Some were higher than 97% and some lower. By the way, of all the bank owned homes that sold in Ladera going back to 8/1/08, there were 9 (one of those was the one I told you about). The days on market for these 9 were 37, 9, 22, 74, 12, 34, 11 (that was mine) 96 and 6. A far cry from what you reported as over 150. The average days on market for all 293 of these was 35 my friend. These are the stats, not some made up crap that you wish it was. If this doesn’t show demand, I don’t know what does. You are mistaken, I never said bank owned homes are shrinking, it is climbing. Better for guys like me whose job it is to sell them:) Too bad you still can’t afford to buy a home that is now priced at 2002-2003 pricing.
Rants, provide me an email address and I’ll send you the 293 homes that just sold complete with addresses, dates sold and sold price. The problem with all you bears here is that you don’t believe anything. Wake up.
George, believe it or not it is true. Go get a better job so you too can own here:) You don’t need $200K a year to buy a home. Is that what your father told you or a bear? You freaks always twist everything. What did you say after the Tsunami? Did you not believe that either? Get out of the fog for a minute and open your eyes.
O I understood you are still selling housis in Santa Anna to illigal immigrant with subprime adjustable loans … You should write tales for adults …
Leo, way to ruffle feathers. lol
George and Rants, I have the proof. I have downloaded the data from the MLS and then uploaded it to a site where you can click on the links and view all the homes. This has all the addresses, dates sold, sold price and how much of original price it sold for. There is 6 pages of homes. The MLS will only go up to 250 homes and the total was actually 293 as I stated above. I can’t wait for what you have to say to these facts. This blog will only let me post 1 link at a time.
1. http://i499.photobucket.com/albums/rr359/ericisrael42/Compsfortheblog_Page_1.jpg
The list I am providing doesn’t have any Santa Ana George. Sorry.
George, here is page 2, no Santa Ana.
http://i499.photobucket.com/albums/rr359/ericisrael42/Compsfortheblog_Page_2.jpg
Page 3
http://i499.photobucket.com/albums/rr359/ericisrael42/Compsfortheblog_Page_3.jpg
Stick it out Leo…
Rants is the grumpiest blogger of the entire bears den. He simply hates you because you work in RE. Mature he is not, a bear economist in training, he most certainly is.
Rants, when you begin treating people with respect, it will be returned. Or perhaps you just enjoy confrontation. How is that working out for you thus far?
Mulli, are you talking about Rants or his twin brother HWOOD?
A realtor telling someone else to find a better job?
Talk about freaks!
You show 1 home sold in Ladera Ranch for 101% of asking and that’s supposed to be ‘many”?
Ladera’s median has dropped $162,500 in 3 months (from register)
The price per square foot is in free fall mode and the days on market isn’t anywhere near your made up stats.
You must be looking at these charts upside-down again.
It seems to me that you might be the one that needs to find a new job since simple charts confuse you.
Here’s the real story;
http://www.altosresearch.com/research/CA/LADERA+RANCH
Bill what do you do for work? Day trading/Speculating doesn’t count.
Ohhhhhhhhhh Noooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!
You mean you were not lying about the LD REO’s? But, but, but,…you are a Realtor…all you do is lie! This is
Good job Leo…hilarious…simply hilarious. I do long for the bear response…
Sorry Bill…the mls does not lie. Those stats for LD are dead on.
Bill, here is page 4. Keep reading.
The days on market is stated and exactly what I said.
http://i499.photobucket.com/albums/rr359/ericisrael42/Compsfortheblog_Page_4.jpg
Page 5 Bill
http://i499.photobucket.com/albums/rr359/ericisrael42/Compsfortheblog_Page_5.jpg
Last but not least page 6 Bill. I never said Ladera was on fire, I just said homes are selling there in a short time. I already know from Lasners article 2 weeks ago that Ladera was the 2nd worst zip code for foreclosures in the month of August. I am just pointing out that homes are selling with multiple offers, some going over 100% of asking price and they are selling fast.
This page 6 has the total and averages:)
http://i499.photobucket.com/albums/rr359/ericisrael42/Compsfortheblog_Page_6.jpg
Bill, I found out your problem. I went to that link you posted. You are the one reading too many graphs, but thanks for the site.
Bill, 1 last thing on Ladera. A 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath condo with a 2 car garage and 1400 SqFt came on the market 14 days ago as bank owned for $319,000. They had 15 offers on it as of Friday. Is that not demand? Your charts are cloudy because they show averages. The average home isn’t selling there or in many areas because it is priced too high. Bank owned homes are setting the true value today. Too bad your graphs don’t show just bank owned homes then you would understand. They say that 45-50% of all activity is bank owned or short sales. I think it is higher than that.
I think, Leo, this is what the bears have been wanting…low prices so many more can afford to buy. So low in fact, that the nice areas are seeing the demand you mentioned…it is just back seat information to the current headline crisis facing the nation: Wall St and credit. And now, Bill goes to Altos, Alfalfa’s fave site with respect to RE trends, to debunk your mls facts. Luuuuuucccccyyyyy…you got sum ’splainin’ to doooooooo!
Mulli, I couldn’t agree more about it being backseat information:)
Altos isn’t accurate because it gives the price per SqFt as an active property and not a sold price per SqFt. Also, the DOM is for all homes and the ONLY homes really selling are bank owned homes. How can you debunk MLS facts?
Geriatric Bill went to bed at 6 right after his blue hair special dinner at Sizzler.
You guys make me laugh.
You come up with 3 months of data, for all of OC, to fill up 6 pages of sales with half marked below 100%.
Then you bash Altos, which was a realtor favorite during the boom.
Too bad your 3 months of data included banks that new they were closing down and didn’t care anymore, so made as many loans to anyone that could blink for a farewell commission party.
The moment of truth will soon be upon us.
The hedge fund industry is poised for a massive shake-up as investors demand the return of billions of dollars from both struggling and thriving funds.
Hedge fund investors had until Sept. 30 to notify managements that they wanted to recall their money by the end of the year.
Some 700 to 1,000 funds are expected to disappear this year.
You guys have no clue.
oops, looks like Bill had a prostate flare up and had to run to the bathroom and check the blog.
Yes and these bank owned homes will continue to drive down the price. At $319,000 this condo is within affordabilty for people who earn a median income but still very high for a 2 bedroom. Until the 3 bed room condos and houses are in this price range we won’t see any sustainable sales. Tell me with REO’s they typically sell below comps, right? With the continued foreclosure rate each new wave drives the price down until we get to a sustainable price. so demand can only be as high as median income if there are no exotic loans. Who will buy the houses above $450,000 without exotic loans if the majority of people make less than a 100k in OC? It is not sustainable and prices will not stop dropping until it is so comments like this:
“I realize the Inland Empire is in the trash can but OC for those that didn’t buy, things look fantastic. Can’t any of your bears just admit it? If prices come down ANY further, the demand will overflow and pricing will have to rise. It’s all about supply and demand folks.”
I don’t understand how demand will dictate price without sustainability? With all the foreclosure’s comming down the pipe do you really think prices are going to start to rise any time soon? Most areas are not there and won’t be there for another 10-15% drop.
Sorry Bill, he was specific about what he was talking about, you all called him out and said prove it, and he did. Case closed. We were not debating what may or may not happen in the future.
That is exactly what I was debating. What will happen in the future because Leo made the above comment originally-
“I realize the Inland Empire is in the trash can but OC for those that didn’t buy, things look fantastic. Can’t any of your bears just admit it? If prices come down ANY further, the demand will overflow and pricing will have to rise. It’s all about supply and demand folks.”
No one still has an answer to my sustainability question???
Stash, the charts posted indicated an overall 97% of list close price. The banks keep the homes on their books and only release so many…they close some, and release some to sell…do you foresee a ton of downward pressure with this tactic, or more of a holding pattern? I see a bit of a holding pattern.
Mulli & Leo,
You can spin any stats you want; the facts are that RE pricing is STILL heading in a downward direction. I find it funny how each of you has a hard time seeing this. You can choose to use your contrarian logic, but you are finding out what many bulls are living now.
What I find even more ironic and amusing is the fact that Leo has stated he only got into the business in 2006. Kind of funny how he really missed the big $$$ (scam), but he wants everyone to believe he is a big shot. Leo, I tell you what, I have the income, down payment and stable job that you only wish your clients have. The fact still remains that to have sustained “real” growth in the RE market in OC, these prices need to come down. Care to wager on that? What is even funnier is how Leo, a renter himself, thinks that he will get a loan for any substantial amount, on a commission only job.
If you RE professionals had any true understanding of where our economy as a whole is headed, you would hedge your bets.
Rants, you’re stuck on raving nonsense. Enjoy renting, if that’s all you can afford. Some of us actually made money on housing, can afford our nice places, and don’t give a fig what you think (if that’s the right term for what goes on between your ears.)
Without price declines who is going to buy these houses that are in a holding pattern of unsustainable price? Yes some people on the sidelines are buying now but eventually that market will dry up and price will have to adjust. You can not continue to have healthy sales with a declining target market. Without RE being affordable to those people who are near median income you can only sell so many houses.
Fiber: I didn’t say I got into real estate in 2006, just in OC in 2006. See, you bears can’t even read and understand. You always have to spin everything. You even try to spin the facts! LOL. I also never said prices were not declining. Again, you spun what I said. Dude, every one I work with has the same as you: job, down payment and income. You are not special at all. My clients would never wish to be you. Don’t bet on my loan brother, I’m ready to go. Hey, if prices come down further, what do you think will happen to sales and my commission? LOL.
not spinning anything fiber…they just asked leo for the information, and he posted it. that is all. recovery takes steps…these are necessary steps. we all agree that pricing will probably continue a decline. BTW, I am commission only and can easily qualify for a loan if need be.
Hey Bill, 2058 homes at $450,000 or more sold going back to 8/5/08. Do you think think any of those were exotic loans? LOL. That’s 34 homes a day that are selling and we haven’t even counted “backup” or “pending”.
Mulli, I’ll buy you a beer:)
Mulli,
Out of all of his cherry picked data, he could only find 1 Ladera home that was purchased over the asking price by 1%.
86%, 101%, 91%, 88%, 91%,93%, 99%,95%,100%
Hardly the overbidding frenzy he was claiming.
Out of over 7,000 homes sold since August, 82 were slightly over 100% of asking.
Or you could say 1% was over asking.
Nothing to see here folks!
Shockg, you can go back to your cage now.
No Mulli Leo thinks prices will rise if they fall anymore than today becuase demand with make prices rise. This is what he posted and this is what I have been questioning this whole time, nothing else. I can’t speak for anyone else but this is the point that I can’t get clarification on?
Bill, is that the best you can do? Hey, those stats from Ladera are from the 2nd worst zip code for foreclosures in August according to Lasner. All that activity in the 2nd worst zip code. LOL. Also, you spun again Bill, I didn’t say the frenzy was in overbidding, I said the frenzy was in multiple offers. Get your information right.
Stash, I said it could happen, not that it will. Please be accurate when you paraphrase me.
Bill said:–Leo,
This is a public forum, so let’s air this out here.
I have nothing to hide, unless your phony document might make you look bad to other bloggers.
Different name, same old crap “Thoughtful” –
No phony doc…at least apologize to the man. Your side can become quite accusatory.
He simply produced the document you asked for that reported EXACTLY what the man claimed. He did not say the market is 100% healthy.
And yes, falling prices will be just fine with the RE community…more buyers equals more $$$. Does that sit ok with you all?
Mulli, I got to roll. Thanks for the support. I’m sure you heard that all of Steve and Gary Thomas Remax offices went independent named “Altera”. It will end up being big.
Hey, nice blogging with you guys. I have been reading this blog for about a year but today I jumped in. Momma was away with junior so I had time:) I email to 640 people every week and sometimes I include one of these blogs.
Good luck to all.
I did…best to you Leo. Hit me at mulliganville@gmail.com and I will meet you for that brew.
Will do! Are you north or south county?
Not sure I am staying with Altera but it will be big.
South…live in MV.
I just emailed you Mulli.
Interesting…when you watch this video, they do not mention Realtors, loan officers, or consumers. They do however mention Wall St…like I have been saying all along.
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4502673n
“Also, you spun again Bill, I didn’t’t say the frenzy was in overbidding, I said the frenzy was in multiple offers. Get your information right”
1.You haven’t proven any of these sales as multiple offers.
2. Even if you proved multiple offers, it was probably upbidding from the same buyer. Either way, 1% of all loans is not a frenzy.
3. Most of your overbids are by a very small amount (3-6 thousand) which sounds more like the closing costs being baked in, not competing buyers.
You have to love WaMu and DSL for being corrupt till the end.
“All that activity in the 2nd worst zip code”
You show 9 sold homes “discounted 50%” in 2 1/2 months and your calling that “activity”?
Why don’t you show the other 99% of homes that sold considerably less than asking price?
I think I know why.
Leo Says:
October 5th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
“I just sold a home in Ladera 2 weeks ago. It was bank owned on the market 7 days”
Leo Says:
October 5th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
“The days on market 11 (that was mine)”
It seems like Leo’s having trouble getting his story straight.
Oh what a tangled web we weave….
Leo is a realtor who decided to go into business in 2006….
….. riiiiiight….
Leo is bragging about Ladera Ranch sales…..
…. riiiiiiiight….
Leo is telling people who probably earn at least 3 times his income to earn more…..
…… OK, Leo…..
Hey Leo, you are a perma clown….
…. this aint’ about bears and bulls anymore….
…. take a look at the freakin blood bath going on in the world economy right now after the bailout….
….. Deflation is taking hold, putting you in the spin cycle, and spitting fools like you out….
Mulliganville: it looks like another wasted weekend in front of the computer for you. Beautiful weather out there (even for someone like me who doesn’t particularly like this area) and you spent the weekend trying to convince suckers on this blog to buy houses. Well, I’m sure the suckers who followed your advice over the last year are pretty mad at you right now.
Only you and Steve Thomas can advice people to buy expensive homes in the OC when the whole economy is collapsing and falling into a recession. Pretty disgusting.