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Homebuying doubles or more in 17 O.C. ZIPs
October 3rd, 2008, 4:38 am · 96 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner
Latest home-selling stats from DataQuick show for the 22 business days ended Sept. 15 shows that O.C. homebuying runs 25.7% above a year ago. Selling doubled or more in 17 O.C. ZIPs — including all six covering Santa Ana. The 17, and their year-over-year gain …
- Santa Ana 92703 (+450%)
- Santa Ana 92706 (+300%)
- Santa Ana 92707 (+300%)
- Anaheim 92806 (+266.7%)
- Anaheim 92805 (+221.1%)
- Anaheim 92807 (+200% )
- Garden Grove 92844 (+200%)
- Santa Ana 92704 (+171.4%)
- Garden Grove 92843 (+170%)
- Tustin 92780 (+161.1%)
- Anaheim 92804 (+144.4%)
- Fountain Valley 92708 (+142.9%)
- Santa Ana 92701 (+130.8%)
- Anaheim 92801 (+128.6%)
- Westminster 92683 (+128%)
- Newport Beach 92662 (+100%)
- Santa Ana 92705 (+100%)
• MORE: Full ZIP code data IS HERE!
Of course, a year ago the credit crunch was smacking mortgage making and stalling homebuying. And now, shoppers are enticed by deep discounting, with countywide median selling price off 26.7% vs. a year ago — and 32% below the peak of $645,000 hit in June 2007. Here’s key results for the 22 business days ended Sept. 15 …
| Slice | Price | Vs. ‘07 | Sales | Vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houses | $500,000 | -27.0% | 1,706 | +37.2% |
| Condos | $300,000 | -30.2% | 711 | +38.3% |
| New | $469,250 | -14.4% | 146 | -48.2% |
| All | $440,000 | -26.7% | 2,563 | +25.7% |
Other real estate news …
- Wall St. woes could smack Newport Beach
- O.C. home values ranked 7th in nation
- Dana Point beach project may take in $680 million
- Irvine Co.’s Bren loses $1 billion! Maybe.
- O.C. home slump now hits the beach
- Newport Beach is 7th priciest U.S. home market
- O.C. incomes 39% short of home price
- Rent a bargain vs. homeownership
- Empty apartments spook U.S. rental builders
- Riverside vs. O.C. home discount at 9-year high
- Gov. vetoes foreclosure help for Calif. renters
- Renters favor Obama on housing issues. Do you?
- Real estate boom set up SoCal for a tumble
- Newport Beach tops U.S. for housing costs
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Santa Ana - lots of discounts going on there and for a good reason.
and yet the worst is yet to come for the housing market.
The economy lost 159,000 jobs in September which will mean more foreclosures in the months to come.
I remember when realtors used to tell me that the housing market is all about employment. Well, now that people are losing their jobs and the country and California in particular are going into a recession, what are the realtors going to say?
I know, they’ll say “interest rates are still very low”. Unfortunately, no matter how interest rates get, if you don’t have a job you can’t get a mortgage.
I have to admit I am still surprised to see that sales have been so consistent for several months now. I would never have thought that many people are still buying homes right now with all the uncertainity out there and with prices still on the downword spiral.
I still think this winter is going to be harsh for sales and price declines. I am not as sure as I was back in the spring about what the rest of 2008 would bring.
poneeboy, sales are higher now compared to last year which was the worst of the credit crunch when nobody could get mortgages but if you compare sales now to the historic averages, we are in a housing depression. Any sales at all is better than a year ago when nobody was buying homes.
We just started to see the housing market crash spreading to the rest of the economy. Even permabulls like Larry Kudlow from CNBC are finally admitting that we are going into a recession. Expect 200K+ job losses every month for the next few months.
It looks like NationalBubble will have to work over-time to spin out of this one. I hope you don’t find yourself having to quit your day job as you will need to spin more and more from here on out !! I don’t envy your spin job !! It’s getting harder and harder !
Sure, this is another spin job. I guess the LA Times feels the same way.
Home prices are down 27% in just one year. Ouch!!!!
Bubble,
I know last years #’s were dismal and anything next to them would look good. I wasn’t comparing this year to last year when I made my comment. Just hard to believe that over 2500 houses have been sold each month for several months now. Are there that many people who really feel that housing is stable and not going to drop a considerable amount more?
No one has any idea what’s going to happen in the near future but I think most would agree that it is looking bleak. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out with a recession, bailout, lots more resets, stricter lending stands, and who knows what else. We are living in a time period that I believe is going to bring dramatic changes.
I heard on the radio that Cali is going broke and having trouble getting people to buy the bonds.that we are trying to sell to keep the state running.
This state is a complete mess ponee. You want to know why people keep buying homes? A few reasons…
-Not everyone wants to rent even though it may be the prudent thing to do. They want to be able to call the shots in their own home.
-They want to provide stability for their children and build a home for the future of their family. Not move every couple of years which renters typically do…not all, but many.
-They are viewing housing as a home, not a bond or stock or other investment vehicle…back to basics…yet this is still a bad thing in the eyes of the bears.
-Lots of inventory to choose from.
-They are satisfied with the price and terms of their current mortgage.
-Rates are very low in comparison to historical standards.
But, here is the real reason so many are buying: their agent talked them into it.
“Are there that many people who really feel that housing is stable and not going to drop a considerable amount more? ”
Poneeboy, you’ll be amazed how many knife catchers there are out there. That is normal. People still think that getting a house for 30% less that they would have paid back in 2005 is a great deal. These are the same morons that were buying Cisco shares in late 2000 after they dropped 50% thinking they were getting a great deal. Now, 8 years later, they are still underwater.
So, I wouldn’t give much credit to the people who are buying now. The home that are selling are the lower end, these are the least sophisticated buyers. Until you see home prices stabilize, I wouldn’t even think about buying real estate.
“But, here is the real reason so many are buying: their agent talked them into it.”
That is the only intelligent thing you said.
Bubbs: you are so self involved with your own agenda that you fail to entertain reason on a daily basis. You simply post a link from some article which you have posted on your website. Wow–thanks for the intellect and dissection of the information.
You claim you care for your fellow man, yet at every opportunity, you boast of the wealth of Marin and how you long to surround yourself within the aforementioned libtard community. Words of a true philanthropist they are not.
wow these data are BIG suprises.
hey mulli, I heard that the government is considering extending unemployment benefits. That is good for you.
Gee, wow, you got me there.
I think you are spot on NationalBubble. We have primarily been dealing with a financial crisis and a deep housing correction. I must admit that the underlying economy has been somewhat resilient given the scope of the problems. Unfortunately that is giving way to the inevitable economic carnage that comes with these crisis. The next 12 to 24 months are going to be horrible. How horrible is the question??
I liken this situation to residents along the Gulf Coast preparing for a hurricane. The last two recessions we have had would be in the Cat 2 (Cat 3 in CA early 90’s) and a strong Cat 1 (2001). What I don’t think people understand is that this financial crisis is basically a Cat 5 Camille type storm with 200 mph sustained winds approaching land. Now I am not one of those predicting another Great Depression, we have put in enough safe guards to prevent that from happening but we may experience some moments where it is going to feel that way. I am little worried about some of these young families purchasing homes with rosy assumptions about their income prospects over the next few years. There is a huge difference between weathering a pesky Cat 2 hurricane and being in a truly life threatening Category 5 storm.
Fundamentals Rule the market in the end.
Income in the area will match home prices.
When it becomes affordable, sales volume will pick up.
The market shows healthy signs, WITHOUT A BAILOUT..
More zips will continue their correction to basic fundamentals.
Mulliganville - I’ll add another reason to your list.
- BECAUSE THEY CAN!
And not because somebody talked them into it…
People that are buying have been on the sidelines or they are moving up. They have sold their homes for less, but they are also paying less on their move up home. I want these people to buy. They’re in it for the long run and they have money to back it up. If this wasnt so, they would not be able to get loans in this day and age.
Day TRADERS/SPECULATORS - You can continue to hope, dream that is the american way, but you are powerless to the purchasing power of the americans that work hard and want to buy for the right reasons. You’re toast!
CDM rocks.
It goes back to this: many of the bears here wish for a complete collapse of the housing market. The real question is why? Using the hurricane analogy: many of you seem to wish for the cat 5 to hit land, head on, in a major city, so you can boast “I told ya she was gonna crash right into us!”
I think it is more important for you all to claim you are “right” without regard to the fallout which would accompany such a collapse.
As a society, I believe it is time to “grow up”. It appears that our local citizens feel that they deserve to live in a home they cannot afford and purchase items with the credit cards that they cannot repay. This is all being done without a basic understanding of mathematics. What is even scarier is that the government continues to borrow in the same manner.
The home prices will continue to drop slowly as everyone begins to “open their eyes” to this horrific mess. Perhaps there should be a stronger push in schools to learn more mathematics.
Let’s get real everyone. It comes down to numbers. Not what you feel you deserve.\]\
As a society, I believe it is time to “grow up”. It appears that our local citizens feel that they deserve to live in a home they cannot afford and purchase items with the credit cards that they cannot repay. This is all being done without a basic understanding of mathematics. What is even scarier is that the government continues to borrow in the same manner.
The home prices will continue to drop slowly as everyone begins to “open their eyes” to this horrific mess. Perhaps there should be a stronger push in schools to learn more mathematics.
Let’s get real everyone. It comes down to numbers. Not what you feel you deserve.
Watching the debate last night.
Can anybody tell Sarah Palin (as well as George W. Bush but who cares about him now) that the word “nuclear” is pronounced “new-clear”, no “new-cu-lar”?
Thank god she doesn’t have a chance to get elected. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be able to take 8 more years of that crap.
http://aolsvc.merriam-webster.aol.com/dictionary/nuclear
The collapse did happen.
* Resale houses are now priced $197,000 or -27% below the peak of $734,000 reached in June ‘07.
* Resale condos are now priced $116,250 or -25% below the peak of $470,000 reached in March ‘06.
* New residences are now priced $396,000 or -46% below the peak of $864,000 reached in February ‘05.
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/06/16/mays-median-home-price-below-500000-1st-time-since04
http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2008/06/16/that-didnt-take-long
We’re below 04′ prices. Its pretty safe to say OC has been through a Full Blown Collapse.
I just wonder how much more sales volume is needed in order to keep prices from continuing its free fall.
Jules,
You make too much sense. Watch out, Mulli is going to accuse you of wanting the economy to collapse.
how dare you tell the truth about the US Economy? We are supposed to say that everything is okay and continue borrowing from the Chinese. Let the rest of the world save money. We are Americans darn it!! We deserve to live the good life without saving for it.
No Bubbs…we see what is happening. You sir, cheer it on.
You are wrong M’ville. I did not want any of this to happen. I am also dependent on a business for my primary income. So I am one of those of whom I speak. I am not a perma bear. I’m just a realistic bear. We have basically witnessed an entire generation of first time and move up home buyers getting suckered into a decision (which they are responsible for) that has resulted in financial devastation. Now we are sitting here in the midst of the largest financial crisis since the 1930’s and on the cusp of its economic ramifications. Unfortunately this is not hyperbole its just fact. The primary motivation for many of us to post such things is to engage community dialogue and hopefully educate those who may unknowingly be making a horrific decision. IMO there are simply many people in the market right now who should not be buying in this environment.
I was very clear Larry…I did not say all of you wished for it. But many have. As you say, that is my opinion.
Mulliganville - I have more bearish views of what is going on and expect prices to continue downwards for sometime.
I just wanted to let you know I appreciate your contrarian views here on these boards. You make articulate and educated observations that are very much needed here so that the majority don’t fall into blind group think. Keep up the good work.
My motivations are selfish and paint my views as I expect of most people here. I want to see this crash as hard and fast as possible without taking down the entire country in the process. I don’t want to see a bailout induced slow grind down over the next five years.
I am a prudent renter sitting on the sidelines with a fat deposit saved up now for many years now - I am a numbers guy as well.
The fundamentals have been so obviously misaligned since 2002 and it has been a frustrating process to watch this bubble grow and grow fueled by wanton greed. Not of it made sense and the numbers became more and more and more out of whack. Now that it is correcting, people talk of bail outs and refinancing packages and other mechanisms to help those that created this madness - it is even more frustrating…
Sorry a bit of a rant there….the point of my post was meant to encourage opposing viewpoints in this forum. As long as they are well thought out and articulate (instead of pointless bashing) they are extremely insightful.
Well bears looks like you were wrong
LMFAO
By the way - what di you guys think we bottom out on for median prices in OC?
If overall is $440k right now correct?
Am I way off thinking it will go to 3.5x to 4.0x median income?
I can’t get a read on median income in OC - I have seen everything between $72k to 80k. So maybe we are talking as low as $250k to $320k median home price in OC.
What are your thoughts on that?
meltdown - Yes, you are correct. The collapse has happened. But these
Day Traders/Speculators still do not want to buy. They want it for a certain price cause they want to maximize their dollar. This mentality is called speculation. We do not need them to buy inorder for the homes prices to stabilize.
As this article shows, the lending/buying will continue to go up. The home prices will continue to stabilize. I would say another 5-10% drop max in the nice neighborhoods, over 5 years.
If you feel you are priced out now in the nice neighborhoods, you will continue to be so. Just go out and work harder to make more money. Dont sit around and gamble on the stock market because you’re stretching your money too thin. If you are buying for the right reasons, then do what it takes to make it happen. Dont just sit around and speculate!
sure,
My question to you is, are there enough of those types of people that you mentioned to support the market to prevent it from further declines? I would say no but that is pure speculation. I think you still need your first time homeowners to stablise the market. Most of those either got burned in the last 5 years or are waiting for the affordability level to come down to them. Until these people can get start up residenses not just in Ghettos such as Santa Ana, Garden Grove, and Anaheim, or out in the IE we will continue to see declines.
Well if StanaAnaStan is selling we must be over this problem then.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFzDKV89fQ0g&refer=home
How about people who don’t have a clue and listen to realtors are making huge mistakes even in SantaAnaStan. It always amazes me they will search for the cheapest gas, cut coupons and search for deals - but when it comes to a house they just want one…unreal.
sure,
I sure hope you are wrong about the 5-10% over the next five years, So that means the median will only drop at the most to $400k. How many first time buyers can afford that or even the 85% a which is typical for the first time home? That means a lot of young people are not going to be able to afford housing in the OC.
Thats a real great approach work harder. Try telling that to the recent grads just starting their careers, lifes, and family. What do you want these people to do?
ponee,
I think there will be parts of our area here which first time buyers may have to wait on. Think of the families that live in the IE. As their careers improve, where do they wish to head? There is a lot of competition to live within 5-10 miles of some of the nicest beaches around. SoCal RE has not always been about fundamentals. As the economy improves, the desirable locations will be on the radar.
BTW, the vote appears to indicate passage of the bill. 3-1 for as of now.
Yep, business as usual…add pork to a bill and it goes through with flying colors. Disgusting.
My bad…just a vote on senate amendments.
Sure,
So I guess people making $100-$200K+ per year should not speculate on whether they have a job next year?
damn speculators
mav - you’re not talking about home prices anymore. if you lose your job, what does it matter if home prices decrease or not? you have other things to worry about at that point, like find another job!
what the hell was i thinking
a JOB has nothing to do with whether or not you can afford things…
…. whether or not your entire life comes crashing down….
Option ARMs and HELOCs BABY…. they are still the rave…. your hot ticket to the good life.
….. it looks like it’s time to leverage up BABY…… roll the dice…. let the family ride !
Sure, seriously my appologies….
… i forgot that home prices have nothing to do with jobs or income….
…. let the bubble roll on BABY !….
Those option arms are a great product. If option arms did not exist, I would be a broke and angry renter posting tears on this board.
Mav-
How many of the above sales are foreclosures?
Since foreclosures are only supposed to be 2%-5% of total sales, take 95% of all reported sales that are bank listings on the MLS.
Now what is the volume? 40%-60% less than last year, which itself was horrific. This is not over.
I don’t get why this math is so hard for you.
Day Traders/Speculators - What are we talking about here? You cannot afford a home so dont stretch yourselves. Leave it to people who can afford it. As this article shows, they are buying with today’s very tight lending standards.
If you are a worried, fundamentalist, freak, that cannot act on things, then keep it up. The buying is for people that are worried, but they want to act on their needs and are willing to say, hey, if I lose my job, I will find another one. I will provide for my family and not sit around and blame others on the blog for my insecurities and my employment income.
Sure, you have a lot of potential customers like me.
We can buy with cash.
Unfortunately we actually understand what is happening.
SO LONG SUCKER
SO BIG DEAL THERES SOME VOLUME IN HOME SALES
JUST MORE PEOPLE THAT WILL LOSE THEIR HOME BECAUSE OF PRICE DROPS
THIS IS FAR FROM OVER PEOPLE..
I THINK THERE WAS ALOT OF VOLUME IN HOME SALES TO AT THE PEAK OF THE MARKET
DIDNT MEAN IT WAS THE RIGHT THING TO DO BUYING A HOME THAN
AND ITS NOT THE RIGHT THING TO DO NOW
JUST SHOWS YOU MARK SOMETHING UP 300 PERCENT THAN DROP IT BY 30 PERCENT AND GOOFY PEOPLE THINK ITS A GREAT DEAL…LOLL
ANYONE BUYING A HOME NOW IS OUT OF THEIR MINDS
ARENT WE LIVING IN THE AREA THAT HAS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT OR MORE CHANCE THAT PRICES CONTINUE TO FALL
THAT DOESNT SEEM LIKE GOOD ODDS TO ME
I JUST SEE A LOT OF EMOTIONAL BUYING GOING ON AND NOTHING ELSE…
SHOWS YOU LOT OF WIVES ARE IN THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS….LOLLL
Marc Says:
October 3rd, 2008 at 10:54 am
“Since foreclosures are only supposed to be 2%-5% of total sales, take 95% of all reported sales that are bank listings on the MLS.
Now what is the volume? 40%-60% less than last year, which itself was horrific. This is not over.”
Marc,
Why would you go and ruin all the bulls fun by the truth. Way to point out the facts. We don’t need that stuff here on this blog.
Day Traders/Speculators - Save your cash so you can sleep with it. We dont need you to buy. What do we care about your happiness? If you are not happy, you have only yourselves to blame. Keep worrying and being freaked out.
You will be more freaked out when you see the sales data next year!
You see, when prices drop, sales increase. So, let the prices drop to ‘98 levels and watch sales return to normal!
Hey Sure, I like your postings my friend. You are right. The day trader/speculators are all affraid of their own shadows. LOL. They pilfridge from state unemployment or some other agency and are just upset they can’t do anything. The demand is so high in so many areas for bank owned homes that if pricing came down any further, demand would double and pricing of these bank owned gems would have to go up. I bet Lasner pays this guys to write their filth here:)
More good news that has to be wrong if it conflicts with bear ideology. If houses are selling, the buyers must all be wrong, because everyone knows that houses will go down forever. Renting rocks!
more good news, Bush signs the bailout package and the Dow is currently down 150 points.
So much for the relief rally.
LOL
MIKEY:
RENTING REALLY ROCKS!
NATIONAL BUBBLE
ISNT THAT FUNNY 700 BILLION DOLLAR PACKAGE AND NO BOUNCE ON DOW……..LOLLLLLLLL
YEAH US BEARS REALLY DONT KNOW WHATS GOING ON DO WE
MIKEYLIKES IT AND SURE
UR PATHETIC BOTH OF YOU
GO BUY A HOME AND WHILE UR AT IT GO BUY SOME STOCK TOO…LOLLLLLLLL
IM JUST A SHORT SELLER LAUGHING EVERYDAY AT YOU SO CALLED BULLS….LOLLLL
ITS GOING TO BEW SO MUCH FUN BUYING MY HOME AT HALF PRICE WHEN I BUY WITH LOGIC NOT EMOTION..
RENTING IN NEWPORT BEACH AND LOVING EVERY MINUTE
Sure: “You will be more freaked out when you see the sales data next year!” Who the hell is freaked out?
Sure - are you sure you don’t need some medication? I don’t see another single poster that agrees with anything you write. You seem to be one of those people that pretend to be part of a group, but have little clue that they are not. Do you even know people are waiting to buy - and not refusing to buy ever?! You seem to have a problem with anyone that is waiting to buy. Talk about being an idiot.
Mulli: I agree about your reasons as to why people might be buying. However, concerning the one statement you made that insinuates recent buyers are not considering price losses - I will believe that when next year comes arouind and I do not hear any whining form recent buyers that the values of their homes are still dropping. Agreed?
Have you spoken to any recent buyers? I have - and some definitely do not care. However, most actually believe a price bottom has been hit. When asked how they felt about the possibility of further price loss - the typical statement - “I don’t want to think about it that way.” So I ask - is that a smart move to make when you completely disregard the element of risk and how it will effect them when it hits? That doesn’t match up well to your statement. Would be nice if most buyers fit the bill you described. However, I would bet money that is not the case.
Has anyone else seen the pork added to the bailout bill? UNREAL. Our government is a disgrace. And here I though the holdout was to get better legislation. Nope just more pork money.
To People who are waiting for the right reasons (Affordability not based on sepculation) - We welcome you to the neighborhood. But do not bite all more than you can chew. We wouldnt want you to become a renter again.
Day Traders/Speculators - We welcome you to keep spending your money on the Stock Market. We do have a problem with your ideals though. You seem to want things you cannot afford. If you cant afford it, go buy somewhere you can afford. Nobody’s making you rent. It’s your decision and your ideals. Do not blame people who are buying and calling them names. They are/have worked hard so they can buy a home. If they are waiting, then they are waiting to save up so they can buy. They’re not out there trying to speculate and make money in the Stock Market. They’re being conservative and saving up like you should be doing.
Not buying it, Sure is right on brother. The rest of you idiots can go cash your government unemployment checks or food stamps or whatever it is you use. You guys are the same ones that were waiting for Y2K. Remember that crap. Do you believe in martians and ghosts too. LMFAO.
One more thing to you moron BEARS like Mulli and Natioanl Bubble, do you honestly think us agents could talk our clients into buying a home? If you believe that, then you believe donkeys can fly. LOL. Sure has it right and the rest of you bears can get upset and complain because your porfolio looks like nada. LMFAO!
LEO
U MUST BE WITH SURE IN AN INSANE ASYLUM
THE ONLY THING I BELIEVE IS BOTH OF U ARE IGNORANT TO FACTS
# Sure Says:
October 3rd, 2008 at 1:18 pm
To People who are waiting for the right reasons (Affordability not based on sepculation) - We welcome you to the neighborhood. But do not bite all more than you can chew. We wouldnt want you to become a renter again.
WHAT A GOOF BALL STATEMENT WAITING FOR AFFORDABILITY ITS THE SAME AS SPECULATING U GOOF BALL
Day Traders/Speculators - We welcome you to keep spending your money on the Stock Market. We do have a problem with your ideals though. You seem to want things you cannot afford. If you cant afford it, go buy somewhere you can afford. Nobody’s making you rent. It’s your decision and your ideals. Do not blame people who are buying and calling them names. They are/have worked hard so they can buy a home. If they are waiting, then they are waiting to save up so they can buy. They’re not out there trying to speculate and make money in the Stock Market. They’re being conservative and saving up like you should be doing.
……
LEO IN UR WORLD DONKEYS DO FLY …
THE SAME AS UR INTELLIGENCE FLEW OUT THE DOOR A LONG TIME AGO
The INSANE ASYLUM only admits the following people who
WANT TO BUY WHAT THEY CANNOT AFFORD…which are the self serving traders/speculators, it might as well be a rental.
In the nice neighborhoods…people have
BOUGHT WHAT THEY CAN AFFORD so they can rest peacefully in their own homes.
HWOOD, it’s all about supply and demand and this article was talking about demand soaring my friend. Sorry about your NADA portfolio. At least you may have a write off next year! LMFAO
Hey HWOOD, Mulli and others, atre you still waiting for Y2K? LOL.
Scott: “Am I way off thinking it will go to 3.5x to 4.0x median income” - I do not think that it will drop that low for most areas - but it heavily depends on lending standards. Lending standards are limiting the buyer pool - plain and simple. Keeping the amount of the loan down to 3.5X annual income is a big hit for our local RE market - seeing that over 80% of the loans made in 2006 in the OC would have violated that metric. The use of adjustable mortagees have recently became quite complex since the risk of interest rate fluctuations is not entirely placed onto the buyer anymore - seeing that interest rate workouts have become mainstay, why should lenders even accept less return when they will not be pass that risk on to the buyer anymore.
Buyers in the OC literally look upon adjustables as being low, long term interest rates since they figure if they whine hard enough, they can keep the lower rate for a long time.
People do not realize, but it is the very concessions that are being made to recent buyers in trouble that are stifling progress of credit availabilitty. What investor in their right mind would back up this market when the rules and agreements they once thought were there to protect them are amongst the first to be disregarded when folks get into trouble?
We have challenged quite a few folks that are bullish on this local market currently to prove our allegations wrong with real lending data. From the reports we pay for - we can see that the lending rules being used today will lead to a healthy market long term, and appear to ensure that affordability will eventually be restored to fundamentals.
In short - good luck borrowing more than 3.5X your income (4X for some lenders) if you have dependents and only 20% in cash to put down. And that is if you have good credit.
I’m sure you will hear from Realtors that such lending standards are unfair and must change. Obviously, the goal for such claims is to increase sales volume INDEPENDENT of an increase in affordability - Based on recent events, that simply puts the risk right back on the lender since buyers are allowed to whine and ask for workouts, bailouts and the like. Worse than that - the willingness of the buyer to walk away is astounding.
As far as many investors are concerned, the word of anyone getting a bailout or workout is absolutely worthless; especially those whose employment has never changed since they first purchased. The terms of their loan were exercised and they bailed. Period - end of story. there are no exceptions in that agreement - they just whined enough to get them. Frickin’ spineless if you ask anyone that holds personal accopuntabillity in high regard.
Sure: “this mentality is called speculation” - your mind appears to be limited to one level of thought. Person can buy but not doing it = speculator. What do you even do for a living? You need to challenge that pea brain of yours a bit more regularly, dude.
WELL LEO MY PORTFOLIO SEEMS TO GET LARGER EVERYDAY
IM A SHORT SELLER IF U KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS
I SHORT STOCKS AND PEOPLE LIKE U EVERYDAY AND LAUGH ALL THE WAY TO THE BANK. ITS PEOPLE LIKE U WITH YOUR FOOLISH BELIEFS THAT I PROFIT FROM
I WANT TO THANK YOU AGAIN FOR YOUR SUPPORT ..LOLLL
Sure: 80% of all homes purchased in 2006 were done using ARMs - when the cost difference to fixed was at a minimum - fixed rates were close to 40 yr lows.
So, by your logic, you have disdain for 80% of everyone that purchased in 2006 in the OC and would classify them as being insane.
Something tells me they would do the same in classifying you.
Sure Says:
October 3rd, 2008 at 1:44 pm
The INSANE ASYLUM only admits the following people who
WANT TO BUY WHAT THEY CANNOT AFFORD…which are the self serving traders/speculators, it might as well be a rental.
In the nice neighborhoods…people have
BOUGHT WHAT THEY CAN AFFORD so they can rest peacefully in their own homes
WHAT ANOTHER GOOF BALL STATEMENT WHERE DO U GET A BRAIN LIKE YOU HAVE ITS HAD TO BE HIT BY A ROCK SEVERAL TIMES
YOU ARE RIGHT PEOPLE BOUGHT WHAT THEY COULD AFFORD . THE PROBLEM IS GOOF BALL IS EVEN IF THEY COULD AFFORD THEIR PAYMENT ON THEIR MORTGAGE AND THEY PAID 700 K FOR IT BUT NOW ITS ONLY WORTH500K.. BUT THEY STILL CAN AFFORD THEIR PAYMENT BUT ITS WORTH LESS TODAY IS THAT PEACEFULL SLEEP. ARE U A COMPLETE MORON OR WHAT
Leo,
Yeah the demand is soaring yet it is still below historical norms and only looks good compared to record low sales this time last year.
Nice spin but it didn’t work. But then again you wouldn’t let facts get in your way would you?
Ponee, can’t you freaks be happy with demand soaring and not compare it to anything else.
Ponee, who cares if the soaring demand is still below historical norms. Can’t you be happy with just soaring demand? You must be an attorney and divorced or maybe a jack a__.
Day Traders/Speculators - You are too concerned with the price of a house that is not yours. The people that bought do not care about you, caring about their home price. Why? Because you will not be buying from them.
Stay on the sidelines. That is your life. You watch it go bye bye.
Day Traders/Speculators of the PAST in 2006, etc. - You deserve to be underwater. You bought a home that you could not afford. In doing so, you’ve caused your followers, Day Traders/Speculators of the present, to wait on the sidelines. So you both have to sit down and talk this out. Express your anger with each other.
Leave the home buyers that have bought for the right reasons alone. They are the buyers of the past, present, and future. If they can afford to pay in 2006, they can afford to pay now. Even if it went down, when they go to buy a new place, the same decline in price on their home should be reflected in the new home they are looking to buy. It’s works that way and it will always work that way.
Right on Sure!
SURE
YOU ARE NO QUESTION ABOUT IT
A FOOL
SURE THIS IS UR STATEMENT
“Even if it went down, when they go to buy a new place, the same decline in price on their home should be reflected in the new home they are looking to buy. It’s works that way and it will always work that way.”
OK SO IF MY HOUSE I BOUGHT AT 700K ITS NOW WORTH 500K TO SELL.. BECAUSE THATS WHAT THE PRICES ARE NOW AND I WANT TO BUY A NEW HOME HOME BUT I NEED TO SELL ISNT THAT A 200K LOSS TO BUY THE SAME HOME NOW THAT IS ONLY 500K
NICE REFLECTION U MUST B A WOMAN U HAVE NO IDEA WHATS GOING ON
Leo: You must be confusing my sarcasm with opinion. I am most certainly not a housing bear. Ask around.
# Mulliganville Says: “Leo: You must be confusing my sarcasm with opinion. I am most certainly not a housing bear. Ask around.”
No way, Mulli is a Realtor. That should tell you something: no integrity at all.
Now I like Mulli, just don’t care for his sarcasm. Funny, fools like National Bubble think all realtors have no integrity. That is foolish you Moron.
NBI - if one is buying in today’s market, my personal opinion is it is good enough for them. The price and terms are right. If the home is worth 10% less next year, perhaps they might be miffed…each buyer is different. If you follow the value of your home on a daily basis after you purchased it, you should not have bought it. My guess is you have heavy investment buyers in SA, ANA, and GG. Ready to rent to displaced homeowners in those locales.
Bubble paints with a broad brush…lacks critical thinking and the ability to reason. Thinks ALL Realtors were the problem. Still cannot figure out that the sales associate does not make you buy that suit…they simply help you with the process and are compensated when you purchase. I will say this ’till the cows come home (Texas phrase for you Bizerkleley Boy): he who controls the money controls the business. It has always been that way……..and it always will be.
The banks are tighter today, thus he slowdown in home sales. Still the same % of agents on transactions. Please get a clue.
it is fun to see mulli and bubble go for each other’s throat daily.
Day Traders/Speculators - People do not buy the same home they just sold. They move up in home purchases. It is a foreign concept to you.
Because Day Traders/Speculators in the Stock Market, you sell at $20 and wish it down to $10 and buy it back, hoping for it to go up back to $20. All within the same day. It’s called short term thinking and immediate gratification. This exhibition of personality showed during the days of HELOC and refinancing to buy automobiles and luxury items you cannot afford with the income from your job.
Your short term thinking will not fly in the nice neighborhoods. We are weeding people like you out. There are long lines of people waiting to get in. You’re just not one of them and thanks for that! We want people that think long term and are willing to live the life of a responsible home owner.
Sure, They are Not speculators. They are investors!! lol
after some serious thought I’ve come to the
conclusion that most of the so-called permabulls
on this blog- like shockg and “sure”- are nothing more
than figments of lansners imagination- I mean think
about it- how could someone be so damn clueless?
weve been brought the edge of financial armageddon–
159000 jobs lost last month alone- the congress had
to vote on a bailout bill for 700 bllion dollars that puts
our national debt over 10 trillion dollars and these geniuses
act like were at the begining of the industrial revolution
now you tell me
Sure- You are funny. You sound like a Nazi. We will eliminate the undesirable people and anyone who is not like me.
“Your short term thinking will not fly in the nice neighborhoods. We are weeding people like you out. There are long lines of people waiting to get in. You’re just not one of them and thanks for that! We want people that think long term and are willing to live the life of a responsible home owner.”
The last part is ok yes people should be responsible homeowners, but you are not weeding anyone out! It is natural selection. The people who cannot afford to be in the house they bought are being systematically removed by natural market forces.
The bailout bill now prolongs this fundamental cycle and could cause it to go deeper than it would have naturally. The gov. will have to juggle knives to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. Who is going to take care of all these properties (residential and commercial) that the gov. forecloses on? They want to buy 20-60 on the dollar? Why couldn’t the banks do that on their own? Pimpco was buying it at .65??? There is nothing we can do now that it has passed so I hope there is a lot of oversight so this doesn’t turn into crescendo of debacles .
in case you didn’t watch it last night, here is Barney Frank with Bill O’Reilly
RANTS
I THINK SURE SCHOCK THE MONKEY LEO CRYSTALL BALLS AND MULLIGANHEAD ARE ALL THE SAME PERSON
AT LEAST THE SAME MENTALITY GOOFBALLS
MULLIGAN AND HIS ANALOGIES LIKE BUYING A SUIT IS THE SAME AS BUYING A 700K HOME…
THATS PATHETIC THINKING AT ITS BEST…
IF U LOOK AT ALL OF THE BLOGGING BY THESE NAMES IT HAS TO B SAME PERSON BECAUSE ITS SO RIDICULOUS IT DOESNT EVEN MAKE SENSE 95 PERCENT OF THE TIME IM SORRY 110 PERCENT OF THE TIME///LOLLLLLLLLLLL
No hwood…you are too dense to see the analogy. Buying a suit and a home is not the same thing. However, the seller of the suit does not make you buy it, you choose to do so. Thus, the buyer has the responsibility of making the decision. You do not understand the psychology of the consumer. All purchases are emotional…all of them.
Point being: I am not going to let some Nordstrom hack talk me into spending $1000 on a suit…I just need their help in getting it out the door for me.
Trying to make sense of your all-cap gibberish is a complete waste of time. I know you must need the attention…sad really. You are the only one who posts in that fashion. Why is that now?
I USE CAPS
BECAUSE IM TRYING TO YELL AT YOU SO U CAN TRY TO GET SOME COMMON SENSE IN UR HEAD
TO ALL U GOOF BALLS MULLIGANHEAD AND UR OTHER NAMES U USE
Not true…you use caps all of the time when you are conversing with anyone. Next excuse please…
Could be the last month we see single family home median at or above $500,000 for a long long time.
Hey peoples
My conclusion -
Sure = Leo = Provider = Thoughtful ?
Your thoughts.
Mulliganville
I’m not sure your buying a suit example really works. The complexity of buying a suit doesn’t hold a candle to that of buying a home.
A homebuyer either has to (A) become an expert on the housing market, mortgages, contracts, tax, etc… OR (B) rely on people who are the experts.
What has so many of us here angry with realtors & mortgage brokers is that we’ve all had run-ins with those who presented themselves as the experts and are either ignorant about what’s going on or willing to lie about it to make their commission.
I’ve been fed the same lines that many here have been fed: “it’s OC, property values NEVER go down here!”, “you’d better buy now before you are permanently priced out”, “now is the best time to buy (every realtor seems to say this at least once every month)”, “I know you can’t afford your payments after the mortgage resets, but you can always refinance next year when your home goes up by 10%”, etc… These statements have been either outright lies or opinion intentionally presented as fact.
I know that not all realtors are like that. You don’t come across as one of those type of realtors to me. But it seems as if the majority are. I have 2 friends that were full time realtors that finally had to get out of the business because they felt like they were surrounded by so much dishonesty and a gotta kill to eat mentality. They consistently lost business to realtors who would lie/cheat/steal.
In the end, it is ultimately my choice whether to buy or not. But when people put their trust into “experts” and the “experts” fill their mind with false expectations, half-truths, and full-on lies, how can you say that doesn’t influence people into making bad decisions? In your suit analogy, it would be akin to telling someone they can sell their suit for 15% more next year for sure. You really don’t think that would influence their decision to buy?
Ok Brain…
Here is the problem. The car salesman is the expert on his vehicles. I assure you he will not sway me one way or the other. I will buy what I want, not what he wants me to buy. A Realtor is not an expert on housing values…the public is. They determine, along with lenders making money available, how much homes are worth by what they are willing to pay for them. Notice how many homes are sitting? The public and banks are saying, now they are too much.
Where the suit salesman would “get you” is if he said, I know you mentioned you only want to spend $1000, but for $2000 you can have this Armani, and today it is 30% off. Interested? The up-sell mentality is where most salespeople get their bad reps. That being said, most consumers low-ball their actual budget. I figured this out a long time ago meeting folks for the first time. For example, they would say we are looking around $400,000…and I would say, “up-to?” And nearly every time, they would increase their limit. It is just how the consumer is psychologically programmed. I also knew they were low balling me more often than not.
I wish our industry did not have losers who lie cheat and steal to make a buck. Most sales professions have these folks which we have to deal with from time to time. For the record, I do not practice general RE here. I have my license active for the periodic deal here and there…but it is not my primary income source.
Jon,
Is this a list for homebuying or highest crime rate?
I love the fact that Newport made the list by blowing away last month with it’s 2 sales (1 more than last month).
It’s a sad day when the only thing we can cheer about is 1 sale.
I think they call that putting lipstick on a pig.
NationalBubble: The Barney Frank video was hilarious! What a politician. Perfect example of the ineptitude of Congress. Do any of them actually know what they passed?
Also, a comment on the discussion. This is an interesting blog because of the back and forth btw bulls and bears. But there always seems to be a pattern:
Housing gets worse - bears gloat.
Positive stat comes up for housing like increased pending sales or sales - bulls mock the bears. ‘Buy now or rent forever!’
Housing continues to get worse - bears gloat again.
It is an interesting debate although I don’t know if anyone on this blog is entirely objective. Can you say “SPIN”? Feels like the politcal debate.
Anyways, I appreciate the comments. I am a buyer on the sideline waiting to buy. I honestly feel the prices are going to continue to decline, but I do find it interesting that sales are up (although mostly foreclosures) and MLS inventory is declining. For those of us really waiting and watching the market, it can be a difficult decision as to when to get in.
My take is that with our country in a giantic financial crisis, there is a good chance we won’t just be talking about housing next year, but people really losing jobs and worried about merely staying afloat. Not upgrading their McMansions to buy granite countertops.
It’s already bad but it’s probably going to get worse. You know what they say about a depression/recession. It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours.
Our love affair with housing will slowly fade. People who are buying now better be sure they still have a job in the next few years. You may think, well you’re just a permabear who always sees the glass half empty. Well, looks like Goldman Sachs as well as other major economists are finally joining the bandwagon. Even Ed Leamer from UCLA who has consistently said that we will ‘avoid’ a recession, in the LA times today said that August was probably the first recession month.
Things are about to get worse folks.
I heard a lot of the residential REO purchases are being done by institutional (i.e. investor) groups, not private homebuyers. And that’s accounting for the huge uptick in purchases in the most distressed areas (Santa Ana, Inland Empire, etc.)
I read that on the internet, so I know it must be true.
32% below the peak of $645,000 as we move into the slow season and at the same time credit markets locked up worse than they were last year and the economy has fallen into the big R.
It just gets better and better or should I say worse and worse.
Another 10% easy.