Here’s what real estate agent Nancy Ulrich at Century 21 Beachside thinks about the wave of bailouts hitting the housing market and national economy. (Psst! That’s a U.S. president at left, not Nancy. You’ll see how he fits in!) …
Basically, the country has run out of qualified buyers. The prime time for baby boomers to purchase homes is OVER. The numbers of people who are entering their prime trade-up purchase years (ages 36-43) is decreasing until 2016. There’s nothing anyone can do about the number of babies born 43 years ago.
And since fewer people will be purchasing their largest home and all the expensive goodies that go with it, the economy will slump further. Add to this mess the fact that personal spending peaks out at age 49. That will make it even harder for X-ers entering their prime home large home purchasing years to put together the cash and credit to make their large home purchase even after 2016.
I expect that the government bailouts and takeovers will continue at least until the 2008 election is over. Then they’ll let the ‘recession’ happen, confident that it will be over by the 2012 elections. Wrong. This next president (Obama or McCain, it doesn’t matter) will be equated with Herbert Hoover (See photo) and will be defeated in a landslide in the 2012 election.
At some point, those that have been large purchasers of U.S. bonds — that have funded our collective national credit binge — will say NO MORE BAILOUTS. And, faced with the possibility of not being able to fund the U.S. government, our peerless leaders will declare a new “era of responsibility”, and let companies fail, no matter how big they are.
The short answer is buy small rental properties when you can get positive cash flow. And be prepared for a couple of lean years as young couples move back in with mom and dad.
I think my favorite quote for the next couple of years is going to be: “The avalanche has already started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote.” We’re strapping on our skis.
… other thoughts on the bailouts …
- Pimco’s Gross: Taxpayers can gain from $700 billion rescue
- Tell us ‘Is it worth $700 billion?’
- Gov. Arnold wants bailout at fastest pace
- Lennar wants meaningful home aid
- Another bailout for the fat cats
- Royce: Inclined to oppose bailout
- Calvert: Immediate action needed on market fix
- Miller: Wants clean bailout bill
- Sanchez: Doesn’t want to give Treasury a “blank check”
- Rohrabacher: Not keen on bailout
- Campbell: On board on bailout plan
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All I can say is wow! That coming from a realtor…pretty honest as to where the market is right now.
omg, I love this woman.
Lansner, can you post her contact info? I want to hire her as my realtor when the market bottoms sometime in 2014. We need more realtors like her.
It is funny that she names baby boomers for these problems, they have been through more transitions than a 7th grade girl. First they were hippies that smoked dope and wanted peace, then they were yuppies that sold junk bonds to self in rich themselves and collapse thrift and loans, and now the mother of all, they have collasped the american banking system. Good job boomers,now we are expected to pay there social security and buy there overpriced homes, please.
Are we suppose to trust them with a bail out? I think the boomers are the greediest most self rigteous people on this earth, They dont care about anybody but themselves, I say live by the sword die by it.
Sorry,
Bush is the Hoover. People being evicted and now live in tents called Bushvilles, just like veterans living in D.C. in Hoovervilles. Our brave soldiers just haven’t realized that the gov’t is broke and can’t pay their salary.
In all fairness, this article quotes a realtor. To be a realtor you only need a high school education and she may only have a GED. I wouldn’t trust her adding my order at Del Taco let alone trust her conclusions about political history.
This could be the bottom. When realtors say it is bad, you may be at a bottom. Or it may be at a bottom when 95% of the comments are from the same person talking to themselves.
Too bad the Real Estate Agencies who are one of the basic roots of this housing mortgage mess can not be held accountable for their percent of the problem. For years Real Estate Agents have been buying up homes they have no intention of renting or living in, and maker ever increasing profits. Had this bottom feeding practice never started,home owners who were interested in buying a home and living in it probably would never be facing this mortgage situation today. In recent years others have jumped on the band wagon of this greedy practice and we call it “flipping”, yes it is flipping all right, flipping off the average homebuyer.
- NO MORE BAILOUTS -
The free market has been residing in fantasy land. Let it crash.
Then the world will once again realize how dependent they are upon the US.
Survival of the fittest will swing in. The American working class can return and we can once again have a prosperous country with affordable housing.
She is right about most of what she says.
She speaks the truth as things get bad when we are all forced to live without credit.
The president has again gone on TV to elicit our fears and join with “Experts” he has hired who clearly have guessed everything wrong and have not been able to do the right thing with the economy so why would I believe they now ”KNOW” how to fix it.
So now, there is what I have named the “EMD” to replace “WMD”.
“EMD” or Economic Mass Destruction is the mantra if we do not do it now we will all die a slow and painful financial death, and of course, we just realized it is crashing, and that Economic Mass Destruction will occur. Gee, they just noticed a problem after saying for years everything is Rosy. My heaven I am to believe crooks coming from Wall Street and Corporate America to Washington to ask for a free ride. Are they not millionaires already? So all the current and previous Crooks on Wall Street walk away with the millions they pilfered from us for the past 20 years or so, which have led to this new fraud to take from the poor and give to the rich?
I am sorry crying wolf when the wolf is the one crying does not convince me.
NO BAILOUT. I repeat NO BAILOUT. Let the “EMD” occur and clean us of a scourge that is haunting us instead of borrowing just to put it off. When will the PONZI scheme of propping up our economy end? We must all suffer, not just me paying for someone else’s mistake while I pay more taxes and pay my bills.
I worked for Washington Mutual Bank who deserves nothing as I watched them approve billions in loans, which now are “Toxic”. That company deserves nothing but a kick out the door. NO BAILOUT. I will vote against every “POLYTICK” (Blood Sucker) the rest of my life if they take more of my tax money to pay for Crooks from Wall Street to Main Street.
Thanks and have a nice day.
I agree with Traitors.
Bush will likely go down as the Herbert Hoover of this century. Completely ineffective and out of touch.
I’m just floored that the American people can be expected to believe anything that these politicos/experts say anymore. The lies, lies, lies about the state of our economy was pounded into us since 3/2007 when this whole housing collapse started. Since 3/2007 until even 7/2007, everything was hunky dory. Then Paulson comes in and demands power to take over Fannie/Freddie but said that it would be most unlikely this would happen. A month later it happens.
Clearly, one of the following must be true: 1. Experts have NO IDEA what they are talking about, or 2. they know but are lying to get what they want. Either way, the reasons justifying this bailout has zero credibility. The same experts who are predicting doom and gloom are the same experts who incorrectly predicted that everything is OK.
Sorry meant to say: “Since 3/2007 until even 7/2008, everything was hunky dory. ”
Over a year of blind optimism and kool-aid drinking.
Bush is the new Hoover. That real estate will become slow is good not bad. We won’t need to import so many consumer goods and we will need that income to pay down debt. It may be hard on our standard of living, but moving to a more sustainable economy is a move in the right direction.
My name is Nancy Ulrich and I seem to have caused a bit of a ruckus here. “OMG an honest realtor!”
For those that want an honest realtor and like my views I can be reached at nancy4homes@yahoo.com.
Some folks have misinterpreted my words as my being against owning your own home. That’s wrong.
What I AM telling our buyers now is:
1) The idea of everyone making buckets of money from their house overnight is a very new idea. Your parents and grandparents didn’t think that way.
2) Buy a home if you like the neighborhood and house and can afford the payments for 30 years FIXED.
3) Worst case you own the house in 30 years and can retire there without having to pay someone else rent in your dotage.
My conclusions were based upon demographics, not politics.
People seem to think that the numbers of buyers looking for homes every year is a constant. It’s not.
Go to the US Census website. Download the US Live Births by year data and plot it for yourself. Its easy. Now use a bit of common sense. Who is going to be buying the trade up homes? Not young people establishing their careers. And not people over 50, they’ve got their stuff or want to downsize. The best range that I’ve found that jives with my personal residential sales experience is 36-43 years old.
Conclusion: Buy a house to live in, with payments you can afford. If you’re buying for investment. Buy only if you can get positive cash flow and be prepared for some lean years.
I have some good news.
Just kidding. There is no good news.
Nice to see the senate actually not let Bush seize military and financial power over the US and declare himself emporer
Get lots of food, water, ammo, and euros.
and a tent that has a bathroom.
Hmmm,
Let me use a little common sense. I can’t down load the Census numbers because I bought an HP and it is a piece of junk.
But if what we have been told and the baby boomer generation is 2 times larger than generation X then the following is going to happen:
Most baby boomers have purchased multiple properties- primary residence, vacation home and rental properties. But as the boomers retire and die the next generation being half as big will not be able to purchase the flood of homes that hit the market from the dead boomers. That is long term BAD for housing. Supply will continue to grow. The only saving grace is the republicans have had an open border policy so maybe illegal immigrants can fill the void. Prices will have to come down then.
So as a so-called Gen X’er, I can expect prices to drop while I’m in my prime buying years, and once the echo-boomers reach their prime buying years I can sell at the top to these unsuspecting spoiled brats?? Sounds like a good deal to me.
I like your advice about buying small rental properties to increase your cash flow. You do a great job of pointing out the problems, which a lot of other places have done, but you go one step further and offer some solutions, which is something I have not seen elsewhere. Altogether great job.