Poor Donald Bren. Lost a billion bucks in the past year.
Oh, well. Only has $12 billion left.
Well, that’s the guesstimate of Forbes magazine in their annual “400 Richest” Americans list. Donald, kingpin of the privately held Irvine Co. real estate empire, keeps pretty silent about his wealth. (They did send this nice photo of Donald.) So we’re left to track Forbes’ best guesses.
Now losing a billion bucks sounds bad — assuming Forbes knows what it’s talking about — until you ponder how other measures of wealth have done. (Forbes’ write-up of Donald is HERE!) Here’s a few comparisons …
- While losing a billion, Donald, 76, managed to move from 23rd on the Forbes’ list to No. 20. Perhaps that eases the pain. Check out the purple bars on the chart at right, tracking his Forbes ranking back to ‘96. (Click on it for a bigger version!)
- On the other hand, that loss by Forbes math — what amounts to a 8% drop — compares to a 3% drop in a widely watched commercial real estate index in the year ended in July. Not a bad proxy for Bren’s performance, though that national index could be off vs. Donald’s California-heavy wealth in West Coast land, office towers, apartments and shopping centers. Check out the blue lines on the chart at right, tracking his Forbes-measured wealth back to ‘96. (Click on it for bigger version!)
- Hey, Donald could be a stock dude and down 11% in the same period, as measured by the S&P 500! And you know what’s happened recently to stocks!
- Keeping with Donald’s visionary status, let’s think long-term. (Good logic when markets are tanking!) Since 1996, my collection of Bren/Forbes data shows his wealth growing at an 18% annual compounded rate. Impressive when, for example, that national commercial property index grew at a 12% year pace in the same timeframe.
- Overall, Forbes reports its “richest” didn’t get richer: “For the second year in a row, the price of admission to The Forbes 400 is $1.3 billion. In this, the 27th edition of the list, the assembled net worth of America’s wealthiest rose by $30 billion–only 2%–to $1.57 trillion.” (Read the full story HERE!)
- Finally, there’s “The Donald” benchmark. Developer/personality Donald Trump’s wealth — as measured by Forbes — stayed flat at $3 billion. As for Trump’s hair …
Other rich people news …
- 8 O.C. fortunes make ‘richest’ list
- Oceanfront lot priced at $12.5 million may break record
- Bill Gates gives UCI $1.7 million to study poor people
- Newport billionaire sues Swiss bank for $500 million
- $34.5 million Laguna home is O.C.’s second priciest sale
- Newport Beach is 7th priciest U.S. home market
Let’s not crack on people for renting or buying. It is personal and independent of others.
You could certainly argue that now is a great time to buy based on the huge selection of inventory at very reduced mortgage rates.
You could certainly argue that one should wait to buy as there are a slew of FC activity which has yet to pass.
Even in retail, when one store gets an overabundance of supply of a product…they reach a bottom regarding what they are willing to part with them for. Once caveat: the banks have no interest in holding RE. That being said, they have never been here, so what are we basing this on? One year ago, very little short sale action. Today, banks are listening…big time.
It goes back to buy, rent, I really do not care. But you are very close to or at replacement value in many locations. Just do what is best for you and let’s not chastise another for their decision.
Dave,
You have posted before that last spring was the time to buy.
Then you posted that the summer would be the time because of higher inventory.
Then you posted that the winter was the time to buy because it’s a slow time.
But you have never posted to us that it’s a bad time to buy, even though prices have continued to drop through all of your predictions.
Your comments have proven nothing and go against any type of common sense, which clearly means one of two things.
1. You’re the absolute worst real estate consultant in modern times.
2. Your commissions are your primary goal in all of your posts.
RealtorDaveE Says:
“This may well be the time to buy, believe it or not.”
–
This? From a realtor?? Who’d a-thought???
:) :) :)
RealtorDaveE Says: “This may well be the time to buy, believe it or not.”
Hey realtor, you forgot to add the other part to your statement “This may well be the time to buy, believe it or not. But maybe we still have further down to go”
That way, whatever happens, you look good.
It’s like me saying “this Winter is going to be very cold but maybe it won’t be as cold as other years”
That’s exactly the same thing you were saying last year and the year before and since you never take a stand, you are always right. How clever of you.
I’m sorry but you have absolutely no credibility.
Me says: “I’m sorry but you have absolutely no credibility.”
what am I saying? Dave is a realtor. Of course he has no credibility.
I have presented a very crude but logical way to look at where pricing is headed:
1. Let’s make some “If/Then” statements to forecast where housing is headed.
If we agree that the median is now at Nov 03 prices, then we could assume the market is headed down.
If foreclosures are directly tied to falling housing prices, then we could assume that the more foreclosures, the lower prices will drop.
If we are looking at a foreclosure rate that has incrementally increased month over month by 78.12 in 2008, then we could assume prices will continue too fall.
If we don’t see a reversal of foreclosures, then Nov 03 prices will pass us by.
If Nov 03 prices pass us by, then 02, 01, or maybe 00 prices will be the new benchmark.
Bulls, please present your If/Then statements to contradict this “bear rational”
Bill/Mulli, your thoughts please…
NatBubbles,
Good call on RealtorDave’s never taking a stand.
Here is from a previous post of his from last spring:
—
# RealtorDaveE Says:
April 12th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
“For now, we’re still looking for a bottom in home prices either this coming winter or the following winter. That doesn’t mean things will necessarily bounce back anytime soon–just stop dropping. And there isl a definite possibility of a 1929-type bust that could last a lot longer. (See “Real estate bottom near?“)”
“If that sounds like hedging our bets, it’s because the truth still is, as Freddie’s Chief Economist Frank Nothaft told us Realtors last October, “We’re in uncharted territory. We just don’t know. . . .” (”How low will prices go?“)”
—
Today, as he was last April, Dave offers nothing other than LINKS to his site — which will lead to equally empty “insight”.
… easy fiberguy…
… the US taxpayer is taking on ALL the bad debt…
… sure the bad banks will still go bankrupt…
… that’s OK…
… the US taxpayer will buy ALL the bad debt…
… the US taxpayer will be able to pay off that debt…
… AND support asset prices…
… deflation is now dead…
… asset prices to the moon !…
If I knew what was going to happen and when, then I’d own 20% of OC like TIC.
What is even more appalling is that here we have a realtor suggesting that this might be the time to buy…….and he’s doing this a couple days after the LIBOR rate jumped 3% overnight. Unconscionable to ignore the possible ramifications of a spike like that upon most of the adjustable rate loans already in existence. Many of the holders of adjustables were already facing problems and yet here we have a major event that is being ignored by so many with a vested interest in the sale of real estate.
mav,
I guess in OC the choice is clear:
Pay your credit cards, not your mortgage. You don’t need to vacuum or paint that little piece of plastic.
BTW, if you choose not to pay the CC debt, the guy next door is forced to pay it.
The figures are staggering. The alternative is financial chaos. No good choices. Maybe with no war in Iraq, return of the strong dollar, favorable trade def, etc, we can be in the pink again in 10-15 years.(?)
… VOR…
… in all seriousness…
… i think the most likely scenario…
… is debt and the financial chaos together…
… you can’t cure the common cold…
… you can only treat the symptoms…
… this is the equivalent of treating the symptoms of a cold…
… with crack…
REALTOR DAVE:
NO BOTTOM YET…………………………………………….
I THE CAPTAIN SAY……………………………………….BOTTOM ==== 12/10
VOR:
Everthing goes in cycles…….
December 2010 Time to aquire yet again in the OC / CA / RE game…..
Mav:
You post like rants…………………………
RANTS: NOT BUYING IT: / PDU: & NANO:
GOT a $7 figure deal on the table…..
This agency owner sells to us………….I get paid……….
Could be back in the OC in no time…………………………………..
G-Willing
Mulli:
I saw Warren-G in Riptide in Kalidascope………………..
He is married and has kids now……………………………….
No more East side Long Beach for him or snoop….ahahahahahahah
He propably lives in MV next to you…!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Great susi in riptide……………………..Got to love crunchy rolls………..!!!!!!!!
“GOT a $7 figure deal on the table…..”
…Scott A, you are waiting tables now?
mav
Maybe so, but after the dust has settled, even this insanity will diminish and be rationalized/absorbed into the incredibly complicated system of current and future circumstances. (wow, deep hahaha). Relatively short term pain. I could be wrong, but I fully expect business as usual in 5-7 yrs.
THE US GOV SHOULD BAIL OUT EVERYONE AND EVERY BODY.
I LOST SOME MONEY TO A HOOKER LAST WEEK.
I NEED A BAILOUT!!!
Dave,
In business and life, professionals have the opportunity to control the trust other have in them. In business, it has been my experience, that if you are trustworthy, people are willing to work with you through good times and bad. If you are known to sling a lot of BS and “hit and run”, you are constantly looking for new clients. I would not work with a professional in an industry if they had little insight into their own business and trends!
If you stop the BS, your return client list would grow!
Honkey,
How much did you lose…..if it was less than a billion, then you are out of luck.
“Now is the time to buy” is not bad advice if you are truly getting a good deal - say an REO SFR in HB 0.5 miles from PCH, 2000s.f. for $500,000. I could buy that all day long! As long as the buyer is holding on to this property for another 5 years, he’s not losing money on this purchase.
But the truth is, $500,000 in HB will only get you a 1300 s.f. townhome on some back street 1 mile from PCH, with views of oil rigs across the street. Eh… I’ll wait.
Hey OC Trojan…
You know what 500,000 buys me?
A house 5x that size, on 15x the property size, with a 100x cleaner air (or more depending on how you look at it) oh ya.. and that was only 250k -
Gosh, what can I do with an extra 250k….
So it seems the moderation does not enjoy people pointing out that in, most other states, for $500K like OCtrojan states - you can get absurd houses and property for half that sum.
My house is 5,400 sq ft, not counting the basement. On 6 acres of land. And the air here is crystal clear. Work? I’m an engineer - I commute 30 minutes to work. Through beautiful forest, gas is cheaper and the cars here are more efficient because CA has incredibly harsh smog standards. I enjoy my drive to and from home, it’s very relaxing driving through the forest.
Oh and OCtrojan, you are very right. I sold at the peak. I wouldn’t have to work, but I do enjoy my work.
What will you wait for? Those oil rigs will never go away, and odds are more will come.
Realtor Dave,
I think it is great that you have been in the biz for 30 years and have probably made some good coin, good for you. I will beat you made more in the last 7 years than you did in the first 23 combined. The Real Estate market is set for a major change. With access to information your insight is no longer as valuable as it once was, and frankly your probably on par with anyone who does thier homework. Realtors will be paid like insurance agents. Not a bad living, but your at the end of the golden years, accept, be thankful that you had it and move on.
Many of you folks seem to be very, very confused about something. You seem to think you WANTED the US government to buy all the bad loans.
TRUST ME, YOU DIDN’T.
Why not?
Because now the US government has YOUR NAME, YOUR SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBER, and YOUR SIGNATURE on all them bad loans. But, I’m sure they’ll look the other way…
The Woodlands IS a gorgeous place, but summers in Texas are HOT and HUMID. If you don’t enjoy being outdoors, you won’t miss much during the hot months. But if you love the outdoors and hate being confined, it’s just not worth it. We considered the Woodlands, until we came to our senses. And don’t forget: Hurricanes love Texas!
25 years since a direct hit of a hurricane not including Allison of 2001 as a Tropical Storm. The only good thing about the storms…you know they are coming and you can leave…unlike Northridge…just kinda happens!
3000 s.f. for $400K on 1/3 of an acre. That is a lot of room to roam from June to September!
However, I do loathe the mosquitos! Each spot has its high points…that is for sure.
Mulli,
Go. Woodlands calls you.
We’ll find a way to survive without you.
“As of early Wednesday afternoon, Entergy Texas had restored power to 54 percent of its customers in The Woodlands area, north of Houston. Some 3,000 residential customers in Conroe had electricity Wednesday, mostly near the Conroe Regional Medical Center.
Conroe is about 40 miles north of downtown Houston and has been largely without electricity since Hurricane Ike struck early Saturday.”
Oh, one more thing…..
That 3000 square feet……you need that because you spend all your time inside.
And don’t forget to add the electricity costs to your monthly nut. That air conditioning isn’t free you know.
And….one more thingy…. a little old 3% tax rate on that home…..and mosquitoe lotion.
Man that sounds like the life I’d like….How are the ocean breezes out there?
pdu: why are you so cantankerous towards me? Cyber-toughness…gotta love it. Are you always so joyful?
Electricity there is a fraction there as to what it is here. Why do you think that it? Highest corporate taxes in the nation: CA. Highest gas tax in the nation: CA. Highest pretty much everything tax in the nation: CA.
I am thoroughly educated with respect to hurricanes, having lived through many tropical systems. Wildfires and earthquakes here (OC is overdue) and tropical systems there. Pick your poison. Ike was a direct hit…first in 25 years, and the largest storm I can remember. I have countless friends and family still without power…I am sure they heard your prayers.
Love the weather here…as do most people…it is one of the reasons why the homes here will ALWAYS cost more.
What does 3000 s.f. go for around here where you want to live? If you were buying today…the below figures are rough averages.
Anaheim Hills: $900,000
Aliso Viejo: $1,000,000
Coto: $850,000
Dana Point: $1,300,000
HB: $1,300,000
Irvine: $1,150,000
Ladera: $1,100,000
Laguna Niguel: $1,000,000
MV: $950,000
Newport: Way out there…
RSM: $875,000
San Clemente: $1,050,000
Yorba Linda: $975,000
I eyeballed the above cities…for a true tax comparison: In TX you actually get a homestead exemption…not the paltry tiny amount you receive here. You save about 10% on your taxes there thanks to the school districts. The Woodlands runs about 2.7% on property taxes. A $400,000 market value home will be assessed at about $320,000. Taxes will be about $8000. With NO state income tax.
Go ahead and run the prop. taxes on the above property values…about the same or worse in comparison if and only if there is no MR.
Finally, as with anything, you get used to where you live. People from the country wonder just how you deal with traffic here…and you wonder how they survive on a farm. The heat and humidity are nasty. But it costs you 2-3x’s the $$$ to live here vs. there.
But, if you have to move to TX and you can pick…Austin…hand down.
History tends to repeat itself
I read awhile back, that
During the Great Depression Million Dollar Houses later sold for $35 THOUSAND!!!