Steve Thomas at Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo calculates a “market time” benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made.
Reading his latest report, your blogger reflected back a year ago as the mortgage crunch was fully showing its impact on the local market. Today, after much turmoil and significant price cuts, the market appears to have stabilized. (Well, 42% of the for-sale supply are distressed homes. Read MORE HERE!)
Peek at changes at O.C.’s neighborhood level. For example, Santa Ana’s market time — how long it would take to sell everything, in theory — was almost FOUR YEARS! Today, it’s under 5 months — a 90% improvement.
Overall, countywide market time as of last Thursday was 4.77 months, down 68% from almost 15 months a year ago. Here’s how Thomas’ math sees the current market by community in terms of months need to sell all supply, ranked by the change in his market time math in the past year:
• The biggest improvements …
| Community | Time | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Ana | 4.43 | -90% |
| Talega | 3.92 | -86% |
| Anaheim | 3.77 | -83% |
| Garden Grove | 3.56 | -82% |
| Lake Forest | 3.07 | -80% |
| Aliso Viejo | 3.19 | -79% |
| Brea | 3.61 | -79% |
| La Habra | 3.65 | -79% |
| Buena Park | 3.84 | -77% |
| Fullerton | 4.20 | -77% |
• The worst performers …
| Community | Time | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Anaheim Hills | 4.20 | -56% |
| Cypress | 3.78 | -52% |
| Dana Point | 7.94 | -48% |
| Corona Del Mar | 10.75 | -48% |
| Laguna Beach | 12.48 | -37% |
| Newport Beach | 15.00 | +4% |
| Seal Beach | 8.91 | +4% |
| Coto De Caza | 8.69 | +10% |
| Newport Coast | 23.89 | +32% |
| Laguna Woods | 8.06 | +36% |
• And the in-between …
| Community | Time | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Portola Hills | 4.50 | -77% |
| Rancho Santa Marg. | 3.12 | -76% |
| Tustin | 4.59 | -75% |
| Laguna Hills | 4.20 | -74% |
| Westminster | 3.25 | -73% |
| Irvine | 4.03 | -71% |
| Laguna Niguel | 4.89 | -68% |
| Villa Park | 5.50 | -68% |
| Dove Canyon | 13.00 | -68% |
| Placentia | 5.21 | -66% |
| Foothill Ranch | 3.83 | -66% |
| Ladera Ranch | 5.20 | -65% |
| Fountain Valley | 3.20 | -64% |
| Huntington Beach | 3.92 | -63% |
| San Juan | 7.25 | -61% |
| Yorba Linda | 6.20 | -61% |
| Mission Viejo | 3.43 | -60% |
| Orange | 4.96 | -60% |
| Costa Mesa | 5.47 | -60% |
| San Clemente | 7.69 | -56% |
Keep up with our Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac bailout coverage …
So judging by these stats, it looks like the big price decline story will be in the upscale beach cities in 2009.
Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, Newport Coast, Corona Del Mar… those cities aren’t moving any properties and are set up for big declines in pricing this winter. Yikes!
The bears will say that beach prices lowering will put more downward pressure on pricing inland. I would argue that the prices inland have moved substantially and may have a little more to go depending upon area, while the beach cities have yet to move substantially enough. Please keep in mind I am not referring to beach front…that will always remain pricey and may not move at all.
well, who would want to live east of the 405 anyways?
that is unfortunate but with so much air pollution here in SoCal, we are forced to stay west of the 405. It’s like being in jail.
Jon,
Why do you keep pushing whatever garbage Steve Thomas writes?
The guy is a realtor. He’s been calling the bottom since 2005. The guy has no credibility. He is the new Gary Watts.
Bubble,
I’m no Steve Thomas fan either, but to be fair, Jon is reporting the numbers provided by Steve - with none of Steve’s usual spin.
Is he a cheerleader for realtards? Yes. But like it or not, he is a consistent source of data for these boards.
Bottom…bottom…bottom. HUH? How could he have called a bottom in 2005? Were we not in a severe upswing about that time? Despite the fact that statement makes no sense, Bubbs, are you denying that market time has dropped substantially over the past year? Step outside your doom and gloom lovefest and recognize that property is moving quicker today than a year ago…specifically in “the areas you would not dare set foot in.”
I noticed the biggest improvements are where the highest foreclosure rates are. If that is what it takes to “stabilize” the market then we are still in for more price declines. If it takes mass sale of distressed properties to lower inventories, then if foreclosures stay on pace with inventory we should still see price declines but of course if the coastal cities start lowering their price and selling the median will go up. That will be a false indicator of stabalization. We will see this winter what effects Fannie and Freddie have if any on the short term. I fear for the long term in terms of market correction. Are they prolonging the inevitable? We will see.
Like I said last week I would speak to my friend who does loan mods this weekend. (by the way the UFC fights were good) He indicated that all the loan mods he does are just repayment plans and lowering of interest rates. They will take it back to the introductory rate and almost no principal will be reduced. He said in some cases they may reduce principal by 25K but they try and stay away from that. The max DTI is 55% and the CLTV doesn’t matter. They take what ever they owe and re-amortize it over what ever is left on the term of their loan. He is able to qualify roughly 1/3 of the 150 calls a week but not everyone that qualifies goes through with the mod. He says that 60% of the people that do the mods stay current. He only does mods for the servicing company and they have loans from New Century, GMAC and a few other big players during the boom. (sorry I forgot the other companies, watching the fight and all)
Again I don’t know how much this is helping but it’s better that the servicing companies do the mods and take the hits than the taxpayer.
I think we need to define “healthy” when talking about the real estate market. Until we see prices rising or even stabilizing it would be inaccurate to use the term “healthy”. Right now we’re seeing twice as many foreclosures being added to inventory as are being sold. See Mr. Mortgage’s video about the “Quickening”. I feel sorry for the people who read these headlines and don’t know any better.
“Bottom…bottom…bottom. HUH? How could he have called a bottom in 2005?”
You know too well what I’m trying to say. Of course I”m exaggerating because the housing market didn’t peak until late 2006. What I’m saying is that Steve Thomas never stopped telling people to buy a house.
I’ve pointed out here on this blog that Thomas had posted on his own blog back in April 07 that it was a great time to buy. Now, you didn’t need a Phd in Economics back in 4/07 to know that the bubble was about to burst.
As soon as I posted the link to his site, he was quick to remove any posts prior to Nov 07 so people could not see that. The main rule for blogs is “you never remove your prior posts if you have any integrity”.
Those of you who get his newsletter can go back and see what he was saying back in late 2006 and early 2007.
My guess is Mr. Thomas, and all of the other brokers out there have a fiduciary responsibility to sell the homes of their clients. What if you hired an agent to sell your home and then you found the agents blog and he said “NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY…” what would your reaction be?
well, what about the buyers who hire realtors to help them find a home?
don’t they deserve someone who is honest and can tell them their honest opinion?
That has always been my point. I can understand sellers using a listing agent to sell their home. As a seller, you should do whatever you can to get the most for your house. I understand that.
My problem is with the buyer’s agents. What sense does it make to hire someone to help you find a home and pay him/her 2.5% or more of the purchase price when is in his/her best interest to get you to pay the most for the house you are about to buy. Can you see the conflict of interest?
I think the buyers agents should charge a flat fee to help you find a home and the listing agents can continue charging a percentage of the sale price.
And before you tell me that the seller is the one who pays the commissions for both the listing and buyer agents, we both know that the seller gets the money from the buyer, so the buyer ends up paying the 2 realtors.
this would be equivalent to hiring a person to help you buy your car and paying him 2.5% of whatever you pay for the car and let him deal with the car salesman at the dealer. Would you do that? That person who have the incentive to find you the most expensive car.
Do you understand what my problem with the current system is?
By the way, most countries I know of don’t have this type of system.
79% of Santa Ana’s inventory is distressed, that’s waaaaay healthier.
Give us a break Lasner !
Most countries also do not enjoy our types of freedom on a capitalist level either.
Regarding buyers agents: Here is where you and I differ. Please hear me out. I have sold price ranges from $220,000 to more than $5 million. More people on the low end make up for the lack of people on the upper end…the best Realtors enjoy similar volume achievements regardless of price points. RE is just volume. In most normal market cycles, they buyer is going to be looking for a particular location and size of home. It is not the norm to have a price jump of noticeable proportions. So if one today is looking for 2500 s.f. in Newport, there will be a few subcategories: ocean locale, bay locale, condo, sfr, etc. There will be price points accordingly. The port streets will be one price and the peninsula will be another. Through buyer budget, certain locations will automatically be eliminated. Once you settle in on a particular area, the price points are fairly close to one another.
For example, when I moved here…we decided on the high school and then backed into several community options. I discounted Ladera Ranch pretty quickly as I was not fond of their grandiose MR. That is why we settled on the home we did…less association, more bang for the buck in s.f.
Personally, if I was showing someone, I would get their permission prior to showing them something beyond the scope of the price range they communicated to me initially. Again, going from $600,000 to $700,000 is only $2500 in additional commission in your above example. The real question is why would I jeopardize a potential $15,000 commission for a mere $2,500 more? It is this mindset that focuses on the 5-6% of the house price instead of the 94-95%.
# Mulliganville Says:
September 8th, 2008 at 9:13 am
My guess is Mr. Thomas, and all of the other brokers out there have a fiduciary responsibility to sell the homes of their clients. What if you hired an agent to sell your home and then you found the agents blog and he said “NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY…” what would your reaction be?
MULLIGANHEAD SO YOU ARE SAYING THAT ITS OK FOR STEVE THOMAS TO ERASE STATEMENTS HE SAID ABOUT HOUSING THAT ENDED UP BEING COMPLETLEY WRONG..
BOTOM LINE STEVE THOMAS IS LIEING AND TRYING TO COVER IT UP….
YES PEOPLE NEED TO KNOW THAT YOU ARE DEALING WITH A COMPLETE CHEAT AND LIAR(STEVE THOMAS)
BUT AGAIN MULLIGAN HEAD YOU HAVE NO ETHICS EITHER YOU AND STEVE MUST BE RELATIVES
Is that what I said wood? Please point to the portion of my post which indicates such. You can’t. Try to keep up…
Dear Blog Readers,
There is no longer any serious debate between bulls and bears. The only question is how bad is it and how bad will it get.
To this end the discussions with the lone bull, today called mulli is of little interest. So this debate is a distraction.
Language is being abused here for the purpose of selling the “newspaper”.
It is silly sensational language to call the market 90% healthier in Santa Ana because market time is supposedly 90% better. Why not just say market time is 90% better which it may be.
Then we might define what we mean by a healthy market and then decide if the market is healthier. It is all things being equal better to have better market time, but all things are not equal.
Now I would like to go back to Bill Gross for a moment and get somefeed back on this point from the bubble and other serious bloggers. I do not believe Mulli is serious for reasons I have state numerous times.
I do not see Bill Gross as a wise investor. He seems bold but really reckless or just lucky or well connected.
Bill Gross had 61% of his bond fund in GSEs. Now if he knew the market was going to tank why would you put your money in GSEs. Yes they paid a bit better than treasuries and yes there was an implied guarantee from the government, but the guarantee was not solid enough to put most of your eggs in one basket like that.
He had to rely on begging the government to bail out the GSEs in a way that helped him. That does not seem like conservative investment. If he wanted to gamble he could have sold Fannie short.
So Bill Gross seems horribly irresponsibe and I would be interested in what serious bloggers think.
The markets with the biggest decline in prices are were the investors and home buyers are buying. Affordability is pushing these markets.
If I’m buying a 700K house. Why in the world would I want to pay a realtor $18000 to set up an MLS search for me, show me a few houses and try to convince me to buy every house we look at?
Nowadays, with redfin and ziprealty, I don’t need a realtor to tell me what is currently on the market.
Not everyone is like you Bubbs…some people like full service. Why go to a $75 per head dinner when In-n-out will fill you up just the same?
and if you rely on a realtor to tell you what to buy, you are making a huge mistake. This is probably the largest purchase of your life, buyers should take the time to educate themselves. It’s easy and most the information is out there on the internet.
Sellers will always use realtors to list their properties but I can see the day when the buyer’s realtor is pretty much out of the picture.
At least, we will eliminate one leech
……. jake, i’m just amazed he got away with it…..
……. risk has not been removed….
……. risk has simply been transfered….
……. from fannie and freddie debt holders…..
……..to US treasuries and the US tax payer….
…… all while institutions/investors holding FNM and FRE…..
……. common and preferred equity…..
……… are wiped out….
……. all for what?……
……. a hundred point jump in the DOW for 1 day?….
…… and maybe, possibly, hopefully, pray on it….
…….. a few months of lower mortgage rates?……
…… what about long term impacts…
… on interest rates, inflation, the US dollar, and employment?….
…this is good for the US economy?….
Dear National Bubble,
How many people relied on you when you touted the SKF at $200?
Nobody relies on an agent to tell them “what to buy.” Agents however, unlike website information portals, know of pocket listings and the like before they even hit the MLS. Could be handy to become friends with the agent in your area if you are in the market and communicate as much.
Come on Jake…you can admit you missed it with me being alfa and provider. At least sack up and be a man about it. Do you possess that much character?
…helen keller is seeking a clue / provider of BS…
…clearly with some self imposed posting limitations…
…shock therapy may have worked….
I overheard an agent at one of the lender owned homes in my neighborhood tell a prospective buyer that if he didn’t overbid by 10% of the asking he never have a chance at this home. I spit my morning coffee with that one since the home has been sitting empty now for more than a month. The agent scowled at me. It’s POS detached condo and they are a dime a dozen in AV right now.
You are correct Eat it…that agent was a juvenile rookie to say that in this market.
Mulliganville Says: “Most countries also do not enjoy our types of freedom on a capitalist level either.”
If you want an example of what “freedom on a capitalist level” does for this country, you only need to look at what the Treasury had to do over the weekend with Freddie and Fannie.
Us the taxpayers will end up paying for that to fix the problems create but what you call a free market.
Most of those countries don’t have our housing/financial problems thank in part for not allowing all kinds of creative financial instruments.
Hey Bubbs, if the USA is so bad, and you have referenced your desire for other locales regularly, pack it up bro. Head to France or Germany or any nation of your choice where you feel the standard of living and amenities will be met or exceeded as to what you enjoy here. Care to look at the tax structure of those locales? Ugh.
The gov’t has to take on Fannie and Freddie…they will offer a more secure atmosphere for investors of these companies as well as a bit looser lending standards. We have over-corrected with respect to underwriting. It is normal for lenders to be gunshy today since in the recent past they did not care at all what you made or could pay back. The truth lies in the middle as always…once we get there, we will be back to normal growth for this part of the country.
# Helen Highwater Says: “How many people relied on you when you touted the SKF at $200?”
Welcome back Seeking Alfalfa!! We missed you over here. I was wondering what happened to you and at the same time, I noticed this new name “Helen Highwater’ that came out of nowhere.
Anyway, good to see you again.
To answer your question. I never touted SKF as you say. I told people that I had made some money with it but I would never come here to tell people what to buy and or sell when it comes to the stock market. Maybe you should take a look at my blog NationalBubble.com and you’ll see that I don’t give stock advice at all.
In fact, I’m virtually out of the market right now with the exception of a few mutual funds in my retirement accounts.
On the other hand, I use my blog to give readers the other side of the story which they never hear from realtors and permabulls like yourself. For almost 2 years I’ve been telling people to stay away from real estate and I have been 100% right. Am I always going to be a housing bear? Of course not but we still have another 10-15% drop in home prices.
By the way, I wish I had bought SKF at the opening this morning but I didn’t have the guts to do it. I would have made some good money. I kinda knew this Treasury created rally had no legs but I have been burned in the past. Short term it’s difficult to fight the Fed but they can only print money to a certain point.
So Bubbles, when you blog for personal profit while you are supposed to be doing the job you are paid to do, are you being a leech or just a thief?
Hey Eat it…what do you think of that live/work development in Aliso by the employment hub?
Mr. Bubble,
You seem to have an obsession debating with someone whose only goal is to distract this blog. I wonder why you do that.
Most serious people see the root of Americas economic problem. We simply do not produce enough goods in this country to match our consumption. Thus we need to borrow to maintain our life style.
For political reasons China was willing to lend and Wall Street was willing to help the public borrow so that Wall Street could reap large commissions.
That caused a serious debt problem which the government is trying to push forward into the future when it will essential inflate the currency.
No one really seriously believes that houses will come back to an overinflated value. In some states like Ohio they might return to a normal value if the job market improves.
The root of the problem again was our “decision” to import and go into debt instead of to produce what we consume.
This reversal of policy cannot be quickly reversed so that we cannot quickly get out of debt nor will creating more debt solve the problem.
The problem is solved as we slowly rebuild our factories to produce more of what we consume. If you can put a timeframe on that then you can put a time frame on the recovery of the economy and the recovery of housing.
People cannot buy what they cannot afford unless someone is willing to extend them credit and this seems less likely.
However until the election the GSEs will be irresponsible enough to make credit available.
The media reports that the bailout of the GSEs will cost 10s of billions but serious people think it will be on the order of hundreds of billions.
And with the extension of further easy credit prior to the election the cost will be increased. This cost can only be repaid by inflation or if we suddenly become more productive. That will take years.
This is the serious discussion we should have and a round and round with mulli is pretty useless.
jake, you are totally right!!
I guess I’m trying to keep Mulli The Realtor busy now that he is unemployed but that should not be my problem.
He should have thought about getting a real job when the economy was doing ok.
Um Jon, can we change the name to the housing bear fraternity? That is what they are looking for after all…
So if this blog is about where housing prices will go then the serious question becomes what will interest rates be over time and how will the balance sheets of potential buyers look over time.
The essential nationalization of the GSEs will for a couple of months keep rates steady or lower.
Peoples balance sheets are not going to change though we don’t know what they look like since no one sufficient reporting on that.
We can suspect that people in OC are losing jobs which makes their sheet look bad, and that people are to some extent afraid of losing their job which makes peoples perception of their balance sheet bad.
If we get a view of the interest rates and balance sheets we can start to understand if we are likely to have a healthy market.
Until then it is unfortunate gossip and anger put forth by one person who has the intent to distract. Along with gossipy stories by Jon whose intent is to sell papers.
I would contend in order for anyone to take you seriously Jakester, you have to own up to your own mistakes. You are incapable of that because that would be a prideful decision. Pride is the #1 sin of man. That broad brush you borrow frequently further supports my point of view. A discussion amongst people that only agree with you is not very productive intellectually. Matter of fact, it seems a bit “clickish.” Like high school…
–Until then it is unfortunate gossip and anger put forth by one person who has the intent to distract. Along with gossipy stories by Jon whose intent is to sell papers.–
All of the bulls are one person…poor high school jake never learns.
Jon is responsible for moving advertising on these pages…
Google salespeople are responsible for selling their products…
Listing agents are responsible for selling homes…
The drive thru employee is responsible for selling food and especially soda since the margins here are about 1000%…
Gosh…I see a pattern of salespeople getting paid to…well, SELL! What a concept.
Excuse me, Sixteen Candles, do you really have a problem with the sales force at your company like you do here?
YOUR BLOGGER: It’s not my job to sell advertising. I just provide facts and figures and let folks decipher them — hopefully, with some class — in these spaces.
Mulli: “The gov’t has to take on Fannie and Freddie…they will offer a more secure atmosphere for investors of these companies as well as a bit looser lending standards. We have over-corrected with respect to underwriting”
it appears that you are if the belief that the Fed taking over these two agencies will improve the amount of money that is out there to be loaned to home buyers - is this correct?
Is the source of those funds US taxpayer money or actual money from investors (especially foreign)?
How did you figure this one: “they will offer a more secure atmosphere for investors of these companies “? Last time I checked, I never read anything of their plan. Have you? Seeing the performance of those loans that are causing the losses, how will the Fed make those losses “go away?”
Having free reign of US taxpayer funds and the printing press for more money does not a secure investor atmosphere make. This move by the Fed just gave many investors the reassurance that not investing in this fiasco at this time was one of the smartest moves they’ve made.
And if you are going off of history, when in history has such a Fed move been required?
Moreover, if it takes the Fed 5 days to get water to the Superdome to save lives of US citizens - you can bet this will get treated like most Fed fiascos - mismanaged, poorly planned, and very costly. Of course, I cannot say so objectively until I see their plan.
i’m just trying to see how people here are formulating their opinions. I have yet to make any about the future “atmosphere” for investors - just trying to get as much info before I feel compelled to do so.
Psychologically, the companies have been rescued. The gov’t will stand behind their debt meaning that foreign investors will be appeased.
The gov’t will be a friendlier negotiator with loan remod’s (that is the new biz in RE these days) as they have no interest in taking over homes across the country.
I am not certain that more money will be available to generate loans to would be purchasers.
See how the world works? FRE, FNM get into trouble, and that casts a dark cloud over housing market. Not to worry. The Govt bails them out, and will raise tax on all, including renters. So, the renters will support homeowners. Thanks, to all the renters.
Mulli: “The gov’t will stand behind their debt meaning that foreign investors will be appeased”
You sure about that? You have any idea what kind of leverage is needed to stand behind that debt?
last time I checked - the fed is already borrowing to pay current obligations and keep this country running.
passing the buck doesn’t bode well for any investor’s confidence.
And we are just talking about existing debt.
Like you stated - people trying to get new loans to help prop up this market by buying a home will be met with the same illiquid credit markets that can be more discretionary to whom they lend than they ever have seen in decades.
Where do you stand on this local market again?
I would give these current rates about 8 to 10 months - and then let’s see what investors demand for their money.
Jimmy2: You may see the tax hikes - but on renters alone?
I for one expect businesses to see the brunt of a democratic presidency and that does not bode well for the economy at all - talk about job losses
One reason we love that loophole - instant write-off for energy exploration - some of the best money we spent in the past 6 months - already paying dividends and HUGE tax write offs. Keeps paying us as long as it keeps pumping - avg lifespan starts at 30 yrs for the range.
Let’s see: GE is the parent company of CNBC and GE does business with Iran currently. Hmmmmm…………..
and this is another local company
Another productive link……
“Bond guru Bill Gross at Pimco, who’s Newport Beach trading team has come as close as anybody in calling the housing debacle, says that the government rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should shave housing losses.”
I think my point about Bill Gross is he is not much of guru.
So now we know the gurus for the most part do not reside in the financial industry. And does not look like they are in the newspaper business. Don’t see the gurus in Washington. Don’t see the gurus at the major drug companies, and I don’t see them leading the mega churches. So my question to the serious bloggers is, with all this great education, and prowness of business, where are all the gurus hanging out.
It seems we have signifigant system problems in the US, but no one thinks government will resolve the problem and sure looks like the gurus of business are the gurus they are cracked up to be.
NB, Come clean. What do you have to gain by pushing your doom and gloom agenda? You are relentless.
You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
Sixteen Candles…I am just having fun with you. But yes, since you cannot seem to find the integrity to apologize for “getting it wrong” about my plethora of handles, I will leave the professional errrr serious blogging to you, Captain Pride. You just could not be wrong huh big daddy? Oh, and it is OK if you choose to ignore the posts….I know you read them. :)
Cool, 92% of morons are out there catching knives to default on in a year when they realize that this is a losing investment and taxpayers will bail them out or the treasonous Republicans…oh wait they lose Democrats win treasonous Dems then same party different name…same high up friends to help.
# Crystal Balls Says: “So Bubbles, when you blog for personal profit while you are supposed to be doing the job you are paid to do, are you being a leech or just a thief?”
I provide my employer in just a few hours with a lot more value than the typical realtor would add to society in his/her lifetime.
We are all pretending … The important thing is to maintain a straight face.
Don’t hate the playa…hate the game.
Mulligan,
Why do you engender such negative responses?
Provider has faded and now you are the full-time “professional” antagonist spending endless hours bickering and cheerleading the used home sellers and all they represent.
You speak as if you are their spokesperson and tell us used house sellers are “professionals”.
You speak of them being “salespeople”……….What do they sell?
They are the same as a car salesman in-as-much as all they do is insert themselves in the middle of the buying process in the hope of getting a commission.
People don’t get sold a car and people don’t get sold a house. The desire to buy is already there.
They are order takers and or/facilitators in a process, which in the case of real estate, has been complicated beyond necessity to help perpetrate the myth that a realtor is necessary, and worth the commission structure in place.
NationalBubble says sellers will always use realtors to list their properties but I believe he is wrong. Listing is a simple process and could be done for a low flat fee.
I have NEVER heard of anyone who went out for a drive and got “sold” a house (or even an In-N-Out burger, for that matter:)
According to what you have told us, you only know the order taker market of California real estate. You said when you moved here you chose your area because you didn’t want the Mello Roos of Ladera. The first of Ladera was 1999, so you’ve seen the market where buyers bid against each other so they could “buy now or be forever priced out.”
Order takers.
The old way is done with. The internet will lead to universal access to properties for sale (even those “pocket listings” - which are the only vague promise of worth you can pretend to withhold from the general public)…..the fee to list will drop as the competition for listings increases and the “fee” to handle the transaction will drop as it become increasing clear that one doesn’t need to pay the current 3 or 6%.
Patricio,
You said it man,
If the dems get elected they are going to tax the hell out of the rich and businesses because they do not believe in any responsibility of the poor folks to take care of themselves. Do you think the rich or business just take it lying down, no they just past the cost onto the middle class because if dems were in control the poor would get everything for free anyways so it won’t cost them much.
If the repubs get elected they just bail out the big business and save the fat cats and the heck with anyone else. I refuse to call myself a republican anymore
Meanwhile the middle class will get screwed or should I say what’s left of it. I will get screwed because I didn’t buy when I knew I couldn’t afford to even though everybody was saying buy now.
Jimmy2, I rent because I am just 30 and I was 22 the last time prices were at the level that I could afford now.
NatBub,
Thanks for the link to Downey.
I knew this would come to pass three years ago when it became public that they used deceptive accounting to credit their optionArm payments allowing their balance sheet to appear better than reality.
They were giants in the optionArm game and very liberal with their qualifying.
I’m baffled why you were criticized for this link and derided for “gloom and doom”. This is reality.
They’ll time this to be overshawdowed by the Freddie&Fannie fiasco, maybe?
A sophistical rhetorician, inebriated with the exuberance of his own verbosity, and gifted with an egotistical imagination that can at times command an interminable and inconsistent series of arguments to malign an opponent and to glorify himself.
pdu: When I moved here, I did not work here. I still do not work here. All I did was activate a license. All of my income is derived from other states. I have also made the above statement at least a dozen times or so. There are a few of us who choose to bring some balance to this blog. What, do you want a fraternity of everyone who thinks alike posting link after link from some fishwrap hack from the northeast? Sounds exciting. Create a private chat room for yourself and mav, Bubbs, etc. You will be back here soon as you need a villain…that would be me for now in your eyes.
I have said it way more than once: “you cannot sell someone a $700,000 home.” Thanks for finally agreeing with me. My problem is the broad brush…you know this. It is also with the disdain and the outright hypocrisy which comes from the likes of yourself and others when it comes to standards on each side. What is OK for your side is not OK for mine. You know I have never called a bottom, never told people to just buy it and you cannot lose, etc. I know you know this. Yet you label me as such. I see you all as essentially as lazy debaters. “Oh…he is in RE…he does not know anything.” Check your pride at the door if you can.
It is obvious who the multi-personalities were on this blog, yet high school click boy is too prideful to admit he got something wrong. He just cannot do it. Matter of fact I think he hates it that he was wrong about it, since he posted on it about 50 times. But you all provide the free pass. Essentially I see many of you as a corrupt police force…imposing the law across the board to foes and allowing tremendous leeway for friends.
A Realtor comes in and promotes their product…he is heinous. Bubble comes in and promotes his product…miracle from heaven. You get the drift yet? This is just politics…all agenda driven. The irony is this is a RE blog and you all still do not get that Wall St. and lax lending standards were the real culprits here. It was always a lending bubble.
Listings will not be done for flat fee as there is too much liability which goes along with this level of transaction amounts. It is not as simple as just inputting the information into the MLS and waiting for a buyer. If that is your idea of selling and marketing a home, you are fired. Those days are gone. Had the market remained on fire indefinitely, THEN I could see that trend popping up. But not today. Agents spend 10-15% of future commissions before the property sells. Do you want your home marketed or not? If all you want is it put in the MLS, then just pay for that. It might take a few months more to sell. Money saved could be money lost. It is a gamble…
I will wager you that in 10 years and beyond, 5-6% listings are still “in the bag.” The web was supposed to redefine shopping across the board. The mall is still here…the car salesman is still here…the insurance salesman is still here…the stockbroker is still here…etc. Guess what…the RE agent is still here.
We have been over this before…there is a stark difference between a professional Realtor and someone who happens to have an active license.
More education around the industry is a good thing. When you sell your home, give redfin a call…they will happily take your listing…and you will still be paying out 4.5%. What, you think the good salespeople in this industry will go to work for redfin? Not a chance brother. You know, you can buy a Mercedes from carmax too…but do you? Probably not.
NBI: the yield on the mortgages (backed by US now) will be better than US Treasury bonds. This is what I was referring to earlier.
“When you sell your home, give redfin a call…they will happily take your listing…and you will still be paying out 4.5%”
….where did you get this info gilligan?….
…. redfin charges a flat $4,000 to sellers…
…. on the median OC home that is less than 1%….
You are right mav…i was thinking of the 2/3 kickback on the buyers side….2.5-3%.
… that’s fair, $4K plus 2.5% in this market…..
To each his own mav…go the route which is best for you.
BTW, I have never seen one redfin sign in the yard in LN, LB, NB, CDM, MV, LR, SC, SJC, Irvine just to name a few. That does not mean they do not have listings there…I have just not seen them.
Bubble–Nice rationalization for stealing from your employer. Why not tell your employer how you spend your days–maybe you will get a raise! I find it amazing you would justify what amounts to stealing from your employer, while you get on your ‘high horse” to attack real estate sales people for being shills for their product–which is essentially what everyone expects of a salesman.
Jon, thanks for the correction. But someone sells ad space here…thus it keeps the site free!
It’s obvious, Mulligan, that you have never sold real estate.
You state: “Agents spend 10-15% of future commissions before the property sells.”
Maybe they spend their commissions before they’re earned, but NOT 10-15% on marketing - unless they are rank amateur absolute fools. Some may want you to believe that and perhaps some high end, high profile properties are marketed extensively, however any honest, successful agent will level with you and tell you the marketing of a property is done primarily to market the agent himself. They get name recognition, and find shoppers and potential listings.
The copies of the ads are added to their portfolios to show future listing prospects examples of what they might expect in the marketing of their own properties.
The broker, ie: C-21 or whatever perpetrates the marketing myth because the agent is putting the C-21 name in front of the public and the agent is paying for the privilege of doing that:)
The majority of homes are sold because they are located in the area the prospect has already determined is the area they want to buy in, and the majority of those are sold because the buyers found that property listed for sale…..it used to be primarily as a result of driving the area, however internet searches have reduced the need for that.
pdu, it is obvious we will not agree here. I know what I have done in the past. I managed teams of sales people on multi-million dollar developments. Let’s take the median for OC: $500,000. Let’s call it 2.5% or $12,500. RE signs are not free, nor is setting up websites, fliers, catering for one or two open houses and perhaps some print ads. Sure the advertising is for the agent as well as the property. Yet, the money is still spent prior to closing. Only after an agent has successfully farmed an area will they begin to churn their business with “foreseeable” expenses. In your example, C21 does not supply anything other than a phone and a desk. To market a property properly…10% minimum should be set aside for that client. And if it is a $3,000,000 listing: gonna need to reach more people…gonna have to spend a little more…but the expectations are the same for the $500,000 homeowner and the $5,000,000 homeowner. It is still one of their largest assets they are entrusting you to sell for them.
You just do not list it in the MLS today and have it move…those days are gone.
The only place we qualify for $500,000 loan in Orange County is Santa Ana.
how about lake forest, mission viejo, aliso viejo, Rancho Santa margarita, SJC….
# Mulliganville Says:”how about lake forest, mission viejo, aliso viejo, Rancho Santa margarita, SJC….”
who wants to live there? boring, boring, boring….
# Crystal Balls Says:
“Bubble–Nice rationalization for stealing from your employer. Why not tell your employer how you spend your days–maybe you will get a raise! I find it amazing you would justify what amounts to stealing from your employer, while you get on your ‘high horse” to attack real estate sales people for being shills for their product–which is essentially what everyone expects of a salesman.”
I can tell that you never worked for an internet company. You are probably used to the IBMs and Oracle’s of the world where your employer tries to squeeze every minute possible out of work day.
Well, there is a whole world of other companies out there. Wake up dude!!!
Well Bubbs,
Rancho: 48,000
Aliso: 41,000
MV: 93,000
SJC: 34,000
LF: 78,000
It is about that many people who choose to live in those areas. Not everyone can be as fortunate as yourself to hang their hat in Newport Beach. But us po’ folks sure do ‘preciate yer concern! Sad, but you reek of elitism…
NB - there no justification for using company time for your own benefit and gain - you are getting paid to be there and you are generating revenue promoting your website at the same time.
There is no way around it - you are a thief - you are stealing from your employer.
WOW MULLIGANHEAD
31 OUT OF 79 POSTS BY A GOOF BALL MULLIGANHEAD
31 OUT OF 79 WORTHLESS POSTS
YOU NEED A LIFE MY GOOF BALL
WHAT U HAVE TO SAY NO ONE CARES
U MAY WANT TO GO TO A METH CLINIC ALSO WITH PROVIDER
Elitism.
Oh, the shame:)
You need to lower yourself. It’s all up from the bottom, you know.
NatBubbs, will you survive this ghastly put-down? How?
do not worry about the beach all you need to do is save and pray maybe one day you can live by the beach
Hwood,
You did not count his posts as crystal balls or helen highwater which as usual cluster perfectly in time with the mul.
Jake, are the meds keeping you up at night? Get help, please.
Active Buyer Says: “there no justification for using company time for your own benefit and gain - you are getting paid to be there and you are generating revenue promoting your website at the same time.”
While you go home in the evening and watch mindless TV shows, I’m sometimes working from home for my employers. As I said before, unless you work for an internet company, you can’t understand the mentality. It’s not about when or where you do the work but how well you do it and how fast you are.
Smart employers only care about results, not how many hours or where you work.
I feel sorry for you if you have to work in an environment where you are not appreciated.
Most companies here in SoCal still live in the 1980s. Another reason for me to move back to the Bay Area as soon as I get a chance.
Great Bubble, then you should have no problem telling your employer how you spend your day. And if it doesn’t, it will free you up to seek employment in the Bay area, where all those “smart employers” appreciate folks like you. “The truth shall set you free” bubble boy.