Norwalk-based broker Terry Robertson has been president of the Pacific West Association of Realtors during the slowest housing market on records dating back to the late 1980s. The association, which serves portions of Orange and Los Angeles counties, is the state’s leading Reator group and the fifth-biggest association in the nation, with about 14,500 members. We caught up with Robertson recently to find out how he sees the current housing market.
Us: We’re starting to see a surge in demand, but price has dropped by record amounts. What’s fueling these changes?
Robertson: Prices are dropping at a rapid pace because of the new credit restrictions and underwriting guidelines on home purchases. Instead of easy qualifying loans with stated income and zero down payments based on credit scores, now most borrowers must provide proof of income and a down payment.
[ More housing: PRICING | INVENTORY | RENTS | FED | RATES ]
Prices are finally coming to down to levels where home buyers can now qualify. As prices continue to drop, the market will keep surging because more buyers are becoming qualified.Us: Are we getting close to a turnaround? When will market rebound?
Robertson: The market is correcting itself as we speak. The turnaround will be slow and steady.
Us: Even so, sales still are way below average. What’s the choking point: Are buyers waiting on the sidelines, or is the problem that nobody and can get loans?
Robertson: Prices are falling in some areas and still going up in others. The bottom line, each area, depending on demand, will adjust according to the provable income ratio of qualifying buyers. Look for the pricier areas to have the least amount of correction because these purchasers traditionally have down payments and clean credit. People are willing to pay more to live in prestigious neighborhoods.
The lower-end properties have taken the bigger hit in pricing because the new loan guidelines have severely affected first-time buyers. Most first-time buyers have little or no down payment and some have credit issues or little or no established credit.
FHA loans will now become the popular purchasing tool. We expect that 90% of first-time buyers will be using this product, which requires approximately 3% down payment. As the revised FHA product floods the market, the lower-end market will stabilize.
Us: How has the past year affected PWR? What are members doing to survive the crisis?
Robertson: Members are becoming better business people. They are watching their costs and budgeting and using business plans. This downturn has actually improved the quality of agents serving the community. Many are honing their skills with specialized training.
Us: What’s your advice for sellers in this market?
Robertson: Sellers should correctly price their homes. They should pay close attention to the pending comparable sales. These homes have not closed escrow yet, but the asking price of these homes show current market trends. Homes that have already closed escrow are old news as this market is rapidly moving.
The sellers should also look closely at the homes for sale on the market. These will be their competitors. If you to want to sell your home in a difficult market, you must face that competition head on. Price is the key to everything. And of course, find a Realtor so that you are working with an expert on pricing and marketing your property.
Us: And for buyers?
Robertson: This is a great time to buy homes. There is an incredible inventory so buyers are assured that they are getting the best home for the money. If a home stands out now amongst this vast inventory, buy it quickly, because when the market changes, and it will, that home will soar in value.
It is also a fantastic time to buy lower-end rental property. Because of the tighter credit guidelines and down market there will be a shortage of rental properties. Rental properties will actually have a positive cash flow immediately because of the lower purchase prices required.
The market is in an improvement trend, and we expect prices to stabilize soon in most areas. And again, we strongly urge buyers to work with a professional Realtor also, because even in this market, it is best to have someone with industry insight on your side.
See what other insiders have told Insider Q&A in recent weeks …
- Affluent homebuyers eye Surf City, Insider Q&A told
- Homesellers ‘not shy’ to fire agents, Insider Q&A told
- USC professors says housing recovery likely in ‘10
- CPA details tax twists in housing bailout bill
- Insider Q&A hears Fed will ’sit tight’ on rates
- Agent thinks Coto de Caza housing ‘down significantly’
- RadarLogic CEO says inventory a ‘wild card’ for home market
- O.C. rents to be ’stagnant’ for a year, investor says
- Real estate attorney says O.C. office market nears bottom
- Investor says homebuying slump boosts ‘affordable’ rentals
- Century 21 boss sees ‘tremendous’ opportunities
- Pepperdine prof thinks O.C. housing ‘very precarious’
- CEO Rodgers of Prudential California expects ‘09 turnaround
- Meisenbach of Lee & Associates says building sellers unrealistic
- Foremost’s Cameron sees housing comeback in ‘10
- First Team’s Merage thinks it’s 5 years to next peak
“If a home stands out now amongst this vast inventory, buy it quickly, because when the market changes, and it will, that home will soar in value.”
…….. say what?……..
….. this guy doesn’t understand what is happening right before his very eyes, a massive US asset correction…… japanese style…..
….. that’s kool aid speak, and in 3 years it will look very foolish….
……home prices will not be soaring in value, not even next decade….
He does not look like some who knows what he is talking about after looking at his picture.
The guy was president of a Realtors Association.
Now that’s credibility!
Collins, how did you get him to agree to an interview?
“……home prices will not be soaring in value, not even next decade….”
I wonder if that statement was spoken in 1991-1996? I am positive it was.
….. hey mulligan…..
… what’s it gonna take for you to understand what is happening?….
…. Fannie and Freddie being nationalized?….
…. oh wait, that is happening this week…..
….in order for housing prices to soar…..
….you need another credit bubble…..
…. good luck with that happening next decade…..
Jon,
Would you please stop interviewing these realtors and brokers as experts in the field. What every person on your board has realized is how biased they are and how limited their knowledge really is. Realtors and brokers use to have a monopoly on the stats and data in their field but now that the info is readily available they have been exposed to hacks.
Please stick to knowledgeable people like economists, business individuals, etc. who don’t have a leg or an ARM invested in their business picking up.
Jon Lansner Interview.
Mr. Colonic I hear the number of colonics have dropped off in your shops is this a seasonal adjustment or evidence of a declining market?
You know Jon everywhere in Orange County people want their a$$es cleaned this may just be a summer adjustment as people are spending time on the beach and not coming in to have their colon cleaned out but I am expecting a fall rush as school season begins. People just want their a$$es clean for a fresh start before school.
Seems like your lower priced colonics are not selling as well as your higher priced colonics?
Well Jon that may be right a litle. The first time colonic users tend to go for my budget colonic that only cleans up to the sigmoid colon. However, luxury buyers still want their entire colon cleaned and are willing to pay a little more to get the good stuff that gets all the way up in there.
Any advice you have to customers considering a colonic?
Now is the best time to buy a colonic. I am not admitting that sales are down but if you come in right now - our colonic experts will have more time on their hands to give you the personalized care you would never have received in the hysteric colon market of a couple of years ago. Besides colonics are regional - you may be a able to get a lower price in some low colonics if you wait but my high colonics are selling very will. So everyone come in and get your a$$ cleaned.
Jon Lansner Interview.
Mr. Colonic I hear the number of colonics have dropped off in your shops is this a seasonal adjustment or evidence of a declining market?
You know Jon everywhere in Orange County people want their colons cleaned this may just be a summer adjustment as people are spending time on the beach and not coming in to have their colon cleaned out but I am expecting a fall rush as school season begins. People just want their colons clean for a fresh start before school.
Seems like your lower priced colonics are not selling as well as your higher priced colonics?
Well Jon that may be right a litle. The first time colonic users tend to go for my budget colonic that only cleans up to the sigmoid colon. However, luxury buyers still want their entire colon cleaned and are willing to pay a little more to get the good stuff that gets all the way up in there.
Any advice you have to customers considering a colonic?
Now is the best time to buy a colonic. I am not admitting that sales are down but if you come in right now - our colonic experts will have more time on their hands to give you the personalized care you would never have received in the hysteric colon market of a couple of years ago. Besides colonics are regional - you may be a able to get a lower price in some low colonics if you wait but my high colonics are selling very will. So everyone come in and get your colon cleaned.
test
I do have a problem with his “This is a great time to buy homes” statement. The NAR and CAR have been saying this since last year, and they have been wrong. Actually, most Realtors have been saying this since the first license was issued.
Have they ever said it was a bad time to buy. When you constantly give bad advice, it doesnt intsill much confidence in the profession.
It’s like watching the weather man tell you its going to be clear and sunny when its rainy outside, you might cut him some slack the first time, but after months of rain and hes saying sun…you just wont listen anymore.
The boy who cried wolf story fits perfectly here.
Like noted above the effects of the hit to fannie and freddie could be huge. Monday is not going to be a good day.
this guy is mis leading people.
he is not santa
he looks more like a …..
OC Sheriff:
Please arrrest this person
OC Sheriff is to busy evicting people!
boom thinking in a bust market…..
cash: Mulli said it as well - you will never hear, read nor see a realtor ever state that now is not the time to buy.
These folks are salesmen. They do their job well - even if it means making forward looking statements that are far from the truth.
That will never go away. What will change is the potential buyers’ perception that what the agent states is correct. Unfortunately, it doesn’t take much to sell the typical OC resident - this is one of the “easiest” consumer markets in the country.
You have any idea what is starting to pick up right now? Fraud in disclosures. More and more sellers are holding back on those disclosures.
Jon - you should interview a local RE attorney that specializes in representing buyers in fraudulent transactions. I personally know a local small agency staffing up to handle the increase in workload.
cash: Mulli said it as well - you will never hear, read nor see a realtor ever state that now is not the time to buy.
These folks are salesmen. They do their job well - even if it means making forward looking statements that are far from the truth.
That will never go away. What will change is the potential buyers’ perception that what the agent states is correct. Unfortunately, it doesn’t take much to sell the typical OC resident - this is one of the “easiest” consumer markets in the country.
You have any idea what is starting to pick up right now? Fraud in disclosures. More and more sellers are holding back on those disclosures.
Jon - you should interview a local RE attorney that specializes in representing buyers in fraudulent transactions. I personally know a local small agency staffing up to handle the increase in workload.
that’s odd? I clicked submit once
If you buy with 3% down you are underwater, by 4% to 6% the day you move in and you sink down 1 to 2 percent a month for an unpredictable amount of time. This may not help your overall outlook on life.
“Mortgage Bankers Association (stated) that more than 4 million American homeowners with a mortgage, a record 9 percent, were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of June.”
Dear GOD!!!
Now its time to go out and enjoy this great day. That was the last bit of news I did not need to read.
People - pay your damn bills please.
Anyone that believes that the metric above is not significant had better have their head checked.
That equates to HUGE losses - all the way down the food chain to even the current homeowner.
Homeowners pulling this BS are doing the worse harm of all to the rest of us homeowners paying our bills on time. I have no pity for them.
If OC sheriff is busy, lets ask LA sheriff, as this guy operates in LA area too.
You can read this as good news for housing or as bad news.
Badnews is foreclosures don’t effect housing prices so prices are dropping for other reasons like affordability, in which case all houses are going to drop.
Good news is that foreclosures are not going to push houses down.
Bad news might be that people are willing to create reports that are wrong and foreclosures will push houses down.
Good or Bad - Other hypothesis
September 5, 2008, 3:58 pm
From the WSJ
Foreclosure Effect on Home Prices May Be Small
Even though data Friday from the Mortgage Bankers Association indicated that U.S. foreclosures hit a record in the second quarter, that won’t necessarily translate into big declines in home prices.
(Getty Images)
That appears to be the conclusion based on the findings of a trio of economists in a National Bureau of Economic Research paper.
“Even in the face of an extreme foreclosure wave such as that experienced in 2007, our evidence indicates that foreclosure shocks have relatively small effects on U.S. house prices,” the authors, Charles Calomiris of Columbia University and Stanley Longhofer and William Miles of Wichita State University wrote.
The authors’ model incorporated MBA foreclosure and Ofheo home price data from 1981 to 2007, and used home foreclosure forecasts for 2008 and 2009 from Economy.com. The model included data on employment, building permits and existing home sales. In their paper, the authors said the study was first to estimate the effect of foreclosures on home prices for all the U.S.
Even under an “extreme” foreclosure shock scenario, with foreclosures up 75% compared to the baseline in 2008 and 2009, U.S. home prices only decline about 5.5% between the the second quarter of 2007 to the end of 2009, the authors estimated.
Home prices, they wrote, “are quite sticky,” and “fears of a major fall in house prices, with all of its attendant negative macroeconomic consequences, typically are not warranted even in extreme foreclosure circumstances.”
“We conclude that a reasonable estimate of the future path of U.S. housing market prices is that they will remain essentially flat, on average, for the next two years notwithstanding the large predicted increase in foreclosures,” they wrote. –Brian Blackstone
The sky is falling. No one should ever buy a home. Owning a home is a catastrophe. And never change your mind.
# Mulliganville Says:
“……home prices will not be soaring in value, not even next decade….”
‘I wonder if that statement was spoken in 1991-1996? I am positive it was.”
—
I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt, Mulli, you know better.
The down turn starting in 1989 was slow — it took 9 years for homes to recover to the highs reached. The down turn was gradual and financing was always available.
Yes, this time it IS different:)
Oh, but you can be sure that some of those “professional” realtors were assuring buyers all through that downturn that California real estate NEVER goes down.
# own_home Says:
“this guy is mis leading people.
he is not santa
he looks more like a …..”
—
Funniest post of the week !!!
Being a little slow, I had to scroll back up to look at this guy’s picture…… and then I had to pick myself and my chair up off the floor!
“Prices are dropping at a rapid pace because of the new credit restrictions and underwriting guidelines on home purchases.”
–> Prices are dropping because home values were artificially inflated with all the liar loans that were available in the past. Real Estate prices used to be pathetic and we are now correcting towards historic affordable levels but we still have a long ways to go.
” This is a great time to buy homes. There is an incredible inventory so buyers are assured that they are getting the best home for the money. If a home stands out now amongst this vast inventory, buy it quickly, because when the market changes, and it will, that home will soar in value.”
—> This is a great time to buy if you want to by at a lower price than what was paid at the top of the market. But you will still overpay as the market is still not done correcting. Several Banks are now cautious with foreclosing on homes that already reached NTS status. They wait because they cannot run the risk of increasing their REO inventory; as an REO would be considered a liability on their books and cause them to have to increase their deposits in order to remain in compliance with the minimum requirements for fractionalized Reserve Banking. Ever wonder why IndyMac, NetBank, et al. offered high rates on deposits prior to failing? That’s one reason why several Lenders are now cautious foreclosing on delinquent homes, some that already have reached the latest stage prior to foreclosure auction, the “Notice To Sell” (NTS) stage. Much of this “pent-up” supply of delinquent homes will sell in the future, whether as a short-sale or REO but one thing is for certain, with more banks going under and further credit deflation it will not only sell at a lower price, but drag neighborhood comps down with it. Decide for yourself if now is really a great time to buy. Yes, Rates will go up, but that will be (over)compensated with the reduction in price. Also ask yourself when was the last time any Realtor told you that now was *not* a good time to buy…
nvest80
P.S. I still believe that between now and end of 2009 we will see approx. a 20% drop in price for “upper income” homes, such as Coastal O.C.
“The turnaround will be slow and steady.”
“If a home stands out now amongst this vast inventory, buy it quickly, because when the market changes, and it will, that home will soar in value.”
Does this guy realize he is speaking out of his ass? His comments are completely contradicotry.
Assuming we are talking water front property - what does a 20% drop in costal OC do for the average person typing on this blog - $2M -> $1.6M.
I guess it gives most a sense of satisfaction that those with what they want, but cannott have, have taken a hit.
That is pretty sad and sick when you think about it.
Hopefully no one here is working for one of those with the house on the coast - especially if they decdie they need to recoup their lose by cutting your job.
But don’t worry about that, just keep up the negative fire n anyone who has a more positve view than you - this will never effect you, because you are a smart renter.
What is sad and sick are those elitist in the coastal areas that think they are above economic downturn and RE devaluation. I have friends that expect devaluation of their 2-3m dollar home and they understand why. They don’t hold themself above the person who buys a 200K house in SA becuase they have more money. They don’t sit in denial in thier huge house saying this doesn’t happen in my neighborhood. They are realist and they know how things work. They are not going to loose thier house becuase they didn’t over buy but do realize all the gains they saw in the past 4 years were unrealistic and now things are returning to real values. Those are the coastal people I respect and they are the down to earth realistic people that would be fine living where ever they could afford. (Just happens they can afford in Newport Coast and Laguna Beach) It’s not about (atleast for me) cheer leading people’s loss, it’s about getting back to fundamentals and real values accross the board.
pdu, the bottom line is people will always be buying homes. It is gonna happen. In every downturn, it is always different “this time.” You are right. Last time, the county had a mass exodus of the aerospace and defense industry along with a host of other problems. This time, we have credit problems. It will get worked out over time. People want what they want. Some want to buy the home they fall in love with. Others, will wait as it is just a box of sticks and mud. The former describes most women and the way they view the home, the latter men. If momma ain’t happy………………………….
Active Buyer,
Ultimately I think that those properties that at the height of the credit bubble went for $800k-$3.5M will, after the correction, go for $550k - $2.4M or somewhere in that range.
The upper income areas haven’t suffered as much yet because that demographic is not the first to lose jobs when the economy suffers and also because those people are more likely to have additional funds (e.g. savings, stock market) to carry them through the rough times. Given that the U.S has a negative savings rate, I don’t think that the large O.C . Coastal population is immune enough from a major correction in RE values.
Few reasons that, in my opinion support that belief of mine:
- A significant amount of properties was purchased during the period from 2003-2007.
- In general, that demographic also refinanced several times during that period to withdraw home equity (aren’t they all rich?!)
- Significant increase in Foreclosure Activity (NOD, NTS) among that demographic.
- OC is not as rich as many believe. The fundamentals don’t support such a great number of homes priced between the $800k - $3.5M range. Just as fundamentals didn’t support starter homes and condos to be valued at $300k - $600k.
“I guess it gives most a sense of satisfaction that those with what they want, but cannott have, have taken a hit.
That is pretty sad and sick when you think about it.”
Definitely not. Not just me, but I know a few people (very minority though) that either sold at the top in 2005-2006 or lived a conservative life and saved money and could now afford Real Estate. We don’t buy because RE in OC is an overpriced commodity, still in this market. Why should I overpay for an asset and make somebody else happy when it was their mistake to 1) overpay for the property in the first place, 2) gamble with an ARM so that they could get a “better” home when they couldn’t really afford it, or 3) miscalculate the RE market and didn’t opt to sell for top dollar at the height of the bubble? Especially when I can still rent at 50% discount for what the landlord pays for a great home with ocean breeze?
Not bitter, in fact I’m enjoying this beautiful day!
Would like to see the data that supports a significant increase in REO activity - all I have seen is the data posted by about a month ago by Mathew Padilla and that did not show any significant activity based on overall number of housing units. I have seen no data that gives a area code breakdown of refi activity durg the peak.
Glad you found a house that you can rent for 50% the current mortgage - even though that is a little hard to believe. If I were you I would be looking for the man with the badge to come and tell you to pack your stuff.
Active Buyer,
We were very selective with what I would rent. Only rented something we not only really liked, but where the owner would have a good amount of equity. In our case, the owner bought in 05 with 20% down from a refi of their primary residence…also no mortgage payment adjustment until 2010…and I monitor the online Grantor / Grantee Index of Orange County with a quick name search prior to mailing my check every other month to ensure that the landlord pays his bills.
Thanks for your concern though.
I can appreciate ‘Active Buyers’ renter’s envy. With the tables turned as severely as they have, it puts renters like me amongst the privileged few who live within their means. Considering that most homeowners around here have lost more cash then they will ever have tangible access to again, it naturally is a painful topic for them. I don’t talk about real estate in mixed company anymore - it is a divisive topic.
I don’t quite understand his ‘renter hate’ though. It is not as if renters caused ANY of this.
For me, the present renting situation just provides us with a nice comfortable feeling, knowing that I’m NOT LOSING ROUGHLY $400 A DAY in house equity.
(Has “Active Buyer” ever come clean and disclosed why it is that all his talking points match those of the ‘real estate special interest groups latest releases?)
“Housing’s revival to be ’slow and steady…”
Yeah, the revival should arrive some time around the year 2080AD.
“Norwalk-based broker”?????
Good lord, asking a Real Estate parasite about Real Estate is like asking a used-car salesman if it’s a good time to buy a used-car. The answer always is (wait for it….) “yes!!!”
maybe if we stop commenting on this type of biased blogs in the future, ..Lanser might consider stop interviewing these used-car salesman. Might be a PR stunt. for Pac West Association of Realtors.
9% are in default now…4 million homes.
Yeah it will bounce back…sure.
More bad news for RE is coming out. Banks are in a whole lot of hurt. Freddie and Fannie are insolvent and investors are worried so the gov. is taking it over which means that we are going to have to pay for this mess. It makes me mad that it was allowed to happen. Whatever happened to common sense. Fraud and loose money policies was what made this market rise and has hurt everyone. People are still in a state of denial. Once the denial is gone RE will hit its bottom but not before. Once everyone gets disgusted with RE then its the time to buy. The few people that are buying now in this dead cat bounce become the comps of the future. So buy away but realize the market is still in deflation mode. The average jo and jane is overextended and the loose money days are over. Face reality.
MOST Mulligan statements are simply retarded.
sorry billion. I really need spell check on here.
These real estate agents seem to never bring up a fact that has plagued the Southern California market for decades…..
Hard times in the industry seem to hit Southern California last, and Southern California always pulls out of it after the rest of the nation.
Going back a few years ago, the downturn occured everywhere else but Southern California. The naysayers (mostly real estate agents) here even doubted that a downturn could happen in the mighty OC since it was such a desirable place to live.
Just as in the past it eventually caught up to us. Everyone sit back, enjoy a latte because there has been no rebound anywhere else in the United States yet. Most economists believe there will be no recovery until at least 2010. And in the past, just like today, it will be a long time before the situation turns around in the OC, probably 2011 or even 2012.
And lastly, Lasner please stop dedicating space to these Real Estate pinheads. They just rile all of us on the boards that know the truth.
Paulson, who recently reassured the public that Freddie and Fanny were stable and could easily withstand any losses, now comes out with a massive bailout.
The bailout involves total assets that would dwarf the savings-and-loan rescue in the 1980s that shook the banking sector to its core.
They have $1.5 trillion in direct debt, guarantees on which could be as large as $5 trillion as well as possible off-balance sheet obligations that could reach $3 trillion.
This is incredible.
Has anyone actually looked at our local banks rate sheets lately?
Most banks rate sheets are a skeleton of what once was.
Most cannot loan money.
With American Taxpayers “Now Responsible for Up To $ 1.5 Trillion Non-Performing Mortgages”…. The Federal Deficit will BALLOON well over $ 10 Trillion!
With the government now in the business of Wall Street, I can see the demise of the free common share market! Soon the Dow will return to 4,000 and America will put its money elsewhere!
If you look at all of the mutual funds that own the common stock and the banks that own the preferred stock in these two companies, the effect will be enormous.
If you look at your 401K statement, home value and employment over the past two years it doesn’t take long to realize the public has clearly been duped by the government.
I keep telling everybody, those that save and short the market will win.
And yes, I meant “Fanny” as in “A horses …”
(Has “Active Buyer” ever come clean and disclosed why it is that all his talking points match those of the ‘real estate special interest groups latest releases?)
Yes I have said that I work as an engineer in OC - back ground in physical sciences.
What does this have to do with anything.
I came to this site in hopes of gaining through discussion some insight into the local RE as a small time investor, but have stayed because the absolute negative tone on the site just amazes me.
Yes…it is the home-ownership entitlement site. The negativity is rampant.
Well answer one question………….
Have most of what the bears said here in the past two yeras been correct?
If the answer is yes than it is not negative but in fact realism……
Stash, where we differ is the amount of money around these parts which makes the decision to get in the game. Last year this time, the median was too high artificially as most action was on the upper end. Today, the opposite is true, but the bears do not recognize it…but last year, they sure did point to the aforementioned factoid. I am just looking for consistency…but what I see is politics…nothing more.
I wonder what is the root cause of all the negativity and attacks around here.
I will agree that it does depend on the market you are looking at. If you are only looking at beach cities, than of course the market is doing decent, considering. If you are looking at the low end all you see is devastation…so of course the bears are correct.
Than there is a huge range in the middle. Cities that range from Fullerton and Brea to Irvine and Tustin. Some of Brea and Fullerton have been hit hard…other parts not as much.
Some parts of Irvine and Tustin have been hit hard others not so much.
The bottom line though is that the vast majority of Orange County has been hit a minimum of 15-20%. To most that seems like a lot of money. In that case, the bears have been correct about the direction of the market.
Like I said before the average home shopper is looking at only 2 things, location and price. They already know they type of home they need. So the other two are the variables. If all they see are prices going down on the type of homes they want in the locations they are looking for, they will continue to wait.
The volume of sales have increased, but the market volume has dropped dramatically. So for them the bottom isnt here.
With 9% of the homes in the US behind or in foreclosure and the troubles with banking, it seems that the bottom isnt here. Where do you think most of those loans are?
I just think that the bears have been right for months. I have seen very little data that supports anything but a bottom being a few months to years away.
Why is it negative if it is the truth. It’s like spinning the death of a loved one….you say all you want that they are in a better place, but they are still dead.
I forgot to add that much of the name calling and personal attacks are not necessary to have a civil discussion. It is just human nature to attack when you feel attacked.
Samson, you know who instigates the name calling. If that is human nature, it is just immature people exuding cyber-toughness.
My question to the bears: why do you care if 3000 people per month right now are buying property?
Its not all about making predictions. There is a complete lack of civility on this blog. And if I remember correctly many here were screaming at the top of their lungs that 50% declines were coming across the board. That is extremely unlikely to come true.
Mully,
I dont think the name calling is a good thing, Im just stating why I think it is so.
The last sales numbers I saw was under 3,000 for August. One or two months of sales over 2,500 do not mean a per month volume of 3,000. Also, summer months are usually the busiest months….I looked and looked, but couldnt finds Lansers historic chart stating as such.
We are heading into the fall and than winter…the slowest sales months of the year. Unemployment is up, the banking industry is a mess, etc. etc.
The number of sales are still far below the average for this time of year and the supply is still pretty high.
According to most of the articles I have read stating that 9% of the loans out there are either already in default or about to be….all of this tells me there are still more homes to hit the market. I would guess that most of these homes are in CA.
The bottom line is that there is a lot more negative aspects of the housing market and the economy as a whole than an increase in volume can whip out.
Again, buyers dont care or even know about sales volume, all they care about is getting the home they want, where they want for a price they can afford. If all you see on all the Real Estate sites is prices dropping, and more homes hitting the market they will wait.
I wont fully discount it. There have been a few homes I liked that have left the market….but prices keep falling on others I am looking at, and I am certain more will hit the market.
There is always another home. Price is a driving force…but it is not the only force like sooooooooooooo many want to believe. There are numerous factors which make families decide on home A vs. home B.
Such as schools, mello roos, location to employment, safety, planned community, newer or older, fixer or remodeled, etc.
The future will be interesting.
Some things I know for sure: this blog is like the elephants and the donkeys…minds will not be changed. You can buy or rent…I personally do not care. There will always be people buying homes. Think about it…this past January, when the news was ever so dire, we still had 1300 homes close. Now, not one bear here would partake in a RE transaction at that time. Most bulls would not either…but somehow, 1300 families decided it was time for them to make a move. Until credit markets return to a level of normalcy, we will not see historical averages with respect to volume on a monthly basis. But the bottom line is this: we are in Orange County, CA…not Stillwater, OK. People want to live here.
I will say that if I find a place I love and the price is right, I may pull the trigger. I am still wanting to pay off a few bills, I have a raise in the works, but my credit score is looking great as compared to a year and 1/2 ago. Now that it is in the 760 range, I feel I have a little more control.
My situation is more that I need to get into a bigger place, with a garage and real A/C. Right now, my rent is real cheap and I wont move twice….so I am still waiting.
As time has gone on, because of prices dropping the places I can afford have gotten bigger and bigger. I was happy with a 2/2 with around 1,000 sq. ft. Now I am finding 3/2 at 1,300 plus that I can afford…and the supply is growing in the area I am looking at.
I know I cant time the market, but I figure once I pay the bills off I want to pay off and that raise kicks in. Ill go get my financing lined up and see what happens.
I could buy in 2 months or 14 it is hard to say right now.
Samson…just pull the trigger when it feels right for you. You will know when the time is right. Good luck to you in the endeavor.