Latest home-selling stats from DataQuick show for the 22 business days ended Aug. 13 shows a median selling price for single-family houses at $499,500 — $234,500 or 32% below the peak of $734,000 hit in June 2007. It’s the first time under a half-million bucks since December 1993 2003. (My bad! Corrected 8-28 8 PM)
Overall, the mid-August countywide median for all residences is down 29.1% in a year — that’s $195,000 (30%) below the peak of $645,000 hit in June 2007. (Vote: Are local home losses moderating?)
Shoppers are noticing the low prices. O.C. homebuying is running 12.7% ahead of last year for this period. July marked the first time since September 2005 that home sales exceeded the year-ago pace. In mid-August, 45 of O.C.’s 83 ZIPs were gernerating sales gains vs. a year ago. To see how your ZIP code did, CLICK HERE.
[ More housing: PRICING | INVENTORY | RENTS | FED | RATES ]
Here are key results for the 22 business days ended Aug. 13 …
| Slice | Price | Vs. ‘07 | Sales | Vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houses | $499,500 | -30.3% | 1,888 | +20.3% |
| Condos | $335,000 | -25.2% | 692 | +21.2% |
| New | $505,000 | -14.9% | 145 | -47.5% |
| All | $450,000 | -29.1% | 2,725 | +12.7% |
PS: DataQuick guys were taking a long weekend and got us this weekly report a day early!
Read more:
- Irvine raffle winner chooses cash over home
- Realtors find 4-month O.C. sales spurt
- Demand for O.C. homes highest since Sept. ‘05
- O.C. homes are 10th least affordable in U.S.
- O.C. home affordability jumps in 2008’s first quarter
- O.C. homes seen undervalued, 1st time since ‘03
- Builders shave $430,000 off new O.C. house prices
- Walk 150 feed, save $25 million on a house
- Irvine called 4th best place to live in U.S.
But how many were stripped bare?
Mav so what excuse does your wife give you?
I thought CDM was bullet proof. I saw Irvine price losses in every zip.
Corona del Mar 92625 $1,750,000 -22.2% 10 -41.2%
CDM is hurting! Double digit negatives in sales and median.
So much for your beach cities except Laguna and one zip in HB-
Dana Point 92624 $620,454 -52.3% 9 12.5%
Dana Point 92629 $735,000 -13.0% 29 -21.6%
Huntington Beach 92646 $494,000 -21.0% 50 -12.3%
Huntington Beach 92647 $490,000 -26.8% 21 -44.7%
Huntington Beach 92648 $780,000 -9.3% 46 0.0%
Huntington Beach 92649 $700,000 0.4% 29 7.4%
Laguna Beach 92651 $1,614,500 1.9% 28 -15.2%
Newport Beach 92660 $1,310,000 -16.8% 26 -38.1%
Newport Beach 92661 $4,737,500 -50.1% 2 -33.3%
Newport Beach 92662 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Newport Beach 92663 $926,250 -39.3% 14 -53.3%
San Clemente 92672 $653,500 -24.5% 23 -25.8%
San Clemente 92673 $825,000 -8.8% 43 -27.1%
Time to wake up from the dream…………………..
Where these sales are: 847 of them are in Anaheim, Santa Ana, Garden Grove, Buena Park, Lake Forest and Stanton.
Newport Beach half off. Whoohooo! Ooops, it’s Newport Beach Drive in Buena Park.
I remember a time where the bubble was denied. We’ve come a long way baby.
provider - be patient - other cities to follow.
Yeah becuase no one is buying in all the over priced neighborhoods everywhere else. Like we have been saying all along.
What about the rest of the numbers?
Dana point double digits both zips.
Forgoet Newport Coast-
Newport Coast 92657 $1,517,000 -46.8% 8 -57.9%
8 sales that is worse than CDM!
Gap not my fault………
Sorry
Mav
you appear to be very happy that OC prices are falling.
Are you happy because people are loosing money or now that more people can afford. If the reason is the first, you need to do some self introspection and become more active in your church
Seeking -
Ms Olick is more about damage control than anything else. She was in denial for the longest time. When she finally admitted that there was a problem she acted like it was her belief all along. I don’t give her too much credit.
Go ahead and try to find some good news for the bulls because it’s getting harder to do.
Provider’s ability to maintain denial in the face of this extraordinary downturn is amazing. It just shows that facts simply don’t matter when a belief is held firmly enough.
We’re already seeing prices at 40-60% off pretty much everywhere, and yet, somehow, this reality is denied. I guess it is just too painful.
own home -
we are happy that prices are coming down because the ones who were financially responsible want to buy a home. Lots will suffer and that pains me but I didn’t twist their arm to purchase something they really could not afford.
“We’re already seeing prices at 40-60% off pretty much everywhere”
You should go back to rehab.
provider,
that is very good data
so it looks like, atleast in irvine area, prices are not falling.
it must be sad news for some folks in this blog
…..p0wn3d home……
…. losing money?….
…. the bubble equity was never real….
….. it was a grand illusion…..
…..i’m not going to feel bad….
….. for someone who had a negam….
…..100% financed…..
….. they were renting money….
…… debt they could not afford…..
…… the median will fall back to fundamentals…
……. in the $300Ks…..
……. this is what people can afford…..
……. this is great news…..
It is amazing that, in the face of a historic day when the OC Median for a SFR goes below $500K, Provider can manage to find the proverbial needle in the haystack. S/he is just the opposite of chicken little. S/he is running around with one home sale out of thousands that is counter to the trend yelling, “the market is rising! the market is rising!”.
It reminds me of the line in the latest Bruce Willis “Live Free, Die Hard” movie, with Tim Olyphant (sp? I’ve brutalized his name. Such a good actor…so sorry), who is the computer geek. When they first get into the homeland security computer hub, and the female techie says, “Besides. Everyone knows that a fire sale is just a myth.” And Tim shoots back, “Please tell me she’s just for show and not in charge of anything important here.”
That’s how it seems to me.
Truth is realtive huh Melody
seeking -
what? not sure what you mean.
It is beyond me why so much stock is put in the median sales price, which is largely simply a reflection of what segment of the market is selling at high volume, foreclosures in the low end of weak markets. The median grossly overstates the loss in most segments and may actually understate the loss in value in places like Santa Ana and Anaheim. It would be interesting to compare the prototypical median priced home selling today versus the median priced home selling in 2005.
Per DataQuick, Single Family Median Home Price:
2006 ~ Month End
$690,000 = Feb ~ Watts 15% “In The Bag” for SFH
$695,000 = Mar
$705,000 = Apr
$705,000 = May
$700,000 = Jun
$699,000 = Jul ~ Watts revises forecast to “11%” for SFH
$685,000 = Aug
$680,000 = Sep
$665,000 = Oct
$660,000 = Nov
$665,000 = Dec ~ “we could be in for a very big surprise.”
2007 ~ Month End
$675,000 = Jan ~ Watts forecast “7%” SFH
$675,000 = Feb
$695,000 = Mar
$720,000 = Apr
$695,000 = May
$734,000 = Jun ~ Peak of O.C. Housing Bubble $718,000 = Jul $710,000 = Aug $655,000 = Sep $650,000 = Oct $655,000 = Nov $600,000 = Dec
2008 ~ Weekly ~ Month End
$583,250 = Jan ~ Watts declares “Pent up Demand”
$575.000 = Feb
$570,000 = Mar ~ Thoughtful declares “bottom”
$555,000 = Apr
$537,000 = May
$550,000 = Jun ~ Watts apologizes “I Got it Wrong”
$515,000 = Jul
$505,000 = 08/06
$499,500 = 08/13 ~ NEW LOW!
Per DataQuick, this loss represents a $234,500 decline in single family home prices from the June 2007 high. And the beat goes on … and on … and on!
You have to wonder about these numbers. Home prices down 30%?These numbers are highly deceptive. If I saw a beach property drop 30%, I would be writing an offer. Where are these deals at? Still, in the CdM blocks I know, a fixer single family starts in the low 2M range, and that is as high as I have ever seen these prices.
I suspect, the 30% drop is mostly do to the average person buying a cheaper home ( i.e. smaller and in a worse city ), than the average person bought several years ago.
Fact is, if you missed a no money down beach home, you missed a lottery ticket.
What a great site Thoughtful! Thanks. That way I can actually see how many homes actually go for list (or less) and how many end up falling out of escrow. Not only that but I can neighborhood by neighborhood for comps and totally screw with the unrealistic sellers when I can show them a home just down the block just sold for 100K less for the exact same unit. Thanks again!
Per DataQuick, Single Family Median Home Price:
2006 ~ Month End
$690,000 = Feb ~ Watts 15% “In The Bag” for SFH
$695,000 = Mar
$705,000 = Apr
$705,000 = May
$700,000 = Jun
$699,000 = Jul ~ Watts revises forecast to “11%” for SFH
$685,000 = Aug
$680,000 = Sep
$665,000 = Oct
$660,000 = Nov
$665,000 = Dec ~ “we could be in for a very big surprise.”
2007 ~ Month End
$675,000 = Jan ~ Watts forecast “7%” SFH
$675,000 = Feb
$695,000 = Mar
$720,000 = Apr
$695,000 = May
$734,000 = Jun ~ Peak of O.C. Housing Bubble
$718,000 = Jul
$710,000 = Aug
$655,000 = Sep
$650,000 = Oct
$655,000 = Nov
$600,000 = Dec
2008 ~ Weekly ~ Month End
$583,250 = Jan ~ Watts declares “Pent up Demand”
$575.000 = Feb
$570,000 = Mar ~ Thoughtful declares “bottom”
$555,000 = Apr
$537,000 = May
$550,000 = Jun ~ Watts apologizes “I Got it Wrong”
$515,000 = Jul
$505,000 = 08/06
$499,500 = 08/13
Per DataQuick, this loss represents a $234,500 decline in single family home prices from the June 2007 high. And the beat goes on … and on … and on!
Actually Melody that little example was 30 needles in 10 days…in one liitle market area. It wasn’t that hard. You give me too much credit.
own_home-
I was reading earlier posts and just becuase people loose thier house doesn’t mean they are on the streets living in thier car. If it is how I suspect most have thier jobs and just have to go rent a house or apartment. They over bought in RE and have to face reality. I can only speak for my self but I only feel sory for the poeple who had medical problems, lost thier job or had some unforseen problem but that is typical in a normal market and not the norm.
Today you have people completly able to make payments (in certain cases) walking becuase of negative equity, becuase they took risky loans or they where refi addicts . I don’t feel sorry for those people. They can rent and buy again in 3 or 5 years.
Jimmy
its the same comment from you different day. CDM is not the center of the world. Escrows are falling through in the higher zip codes like crazy, I know of 3 of them…. escrows gone! gotta find another buyer….free money is gone for the most part. It will happen here, it will just take time. I can’t wait to see who can actually afford to buy here and who can’t even afford their own homes. The tide is going out, lets see who is wearing their bathing suits!
didn’t question you, why are you giving me a hard time? Last comment was for seeking. Maybe you’re seeking too?
No more coffee for you.
Mom in CdM, realty is the sales prices on homes. 2M+. I have a good reason to post the same comment, and that is a big smile. Like most of my neighbors, I have massive seven figure equity and a payment lower than santa ana rent. I ignored all the doom and gloomers since the late 1990s. I feel sorry for anyone who bought that garbage and decided to rent.
does volume drive price? or does price drive volume.?
as prices drop, there will be more sales.
Price is more important than volume in this situation, because ‘Price Pays’, not volume.
-50% “in the bag”.
jimmy - shame on you. real estate is not the lottery.
Orange County is leading the country on a dollar basis down the crapper. Our real dollar losses far exceed other bubble communities such as Phoenix and Florida. And guess what, we’re gonna keep going down.
Our problems have less to do with flipping and vacant housing, and more to do with vastly overpriced housing.
I can’t wait to see who can actually afford to buy here and who can’t even afford their own homes. The tide is going out, lets see who is wearing their bathing suits!
WELL SAID CDM MOM!
We’re gonna find out who’s been pretending to be rich!
It is very encouraging that the new data shows that the affordability concern is being addressed – everyone should be able to buy a house if they want to.
For those who may be interested in the same areas I am this data set shows a price jump in the median from July – still basically flat since January.
For AV, AV, DP, FHR, Irvine, LR, LF, MV, RSM, SC, SJC, TC
Month Median ($k)
January $551.00
February $583.00
March $560.50
April $615.00
May $525.00
June $588.75
July $561.00
August $570.00
Should be interesting to see what the standard fall price drop amounts to – I am still hoping to find that one bargain buy.
Funny how that site links to Irvine Housing Blog. Just looking at the July numbers the Sale/List it 0.93. So if you dare, go and look at that trend month by month and get back to me.
lee and cdm -
so true so true.
Yes, but Jimmy
I think it is great that most CDM’ers have a lot of equity in their homes. Especially the older , retired folks who live near me who might need that money to carry them through the rest of their lives. They rate that money. It’s the people who bought, used their homes as an ATM that I don’t feel sorry for. There has to be a level of turnover in any zipcode. When the majority of the zipcode can’t afford their own home today, there is a problem in income/home price ratio.
Also, you keep saying stuff like this:
“I have massive seven figure equity and a payment lower than santa ana rent. I ignored all the doom and gloomers since the late 1990s. I feel sorry for anyone who bought that garbage and decided to rent.”
In this you are making a huge assumption that all of renters have been here in the OC since the last decline and that we have rented the entire time. That is entirely false. I know of many, many renters who moved here within the last 4 years who, even though, make several hundred a year, can’t afford a house. You need to quit trying to rub noses in your gains. If you moved here in the last several years, the smartest thing to do was to rent.
Jimmy you better cash out soon becuase it is coming. Oh but nothing is selling in CDM. 107 out 198 listings have drop thier price in CDM. Just look on Ziprealty. Why would they drop their original listing price if CDM is not effected?
How many of those “2 blocks from the beach, where you can’t even touch them for 2 million”, how many buyers are trying to touch them? they’d better cash out on their 7 figure equities to do it!
Jimmy -
“I feel sorry for anyone who bought that garbage and decided to rent.”
I feel sorry for anyone who bought real estate since 2000. Come down to earth Jimmy. Those fumes are causing your ego to bleed through your shorts.
Melody, you said Diana Olick was late to the party and was dealing in damage control? She has been beating the market over the head with the Case/Shiller index since it turned south in 2006. And she is the darling of blogs like Housing Doom and Housing Panic for the last year or so. I think your statement is a bit of a fabrication. But then I can understand, the sense of abandonment you must feel at having one of your own, an Icon of Bearishness if you will, turn against you. If I were in your place I’d toss the witch under the bus too.
Melody, those 2.2M CdM fixers were 800K in 2001. Melody, I feel sorry for anyone who bought one of those. Fools.
One year ago, THE HIGH END was selling as evidenced by Lee’s graph. today THE LOW END is selling as evidenced by Lee’s graph. Nothing more.
mom -
So true. I have not been here that long and when I first got here I refused to “get in”. It just didn’t make financial sense. Also being new to the area, I wanted to expose myself to different areas beforehand. You can’t do that once you’ve bought.
Finally, I can find a house at a decent price…
Seeking - “witch under the bus”?
You’re being a lil brutal don’t you think? I’ve never felt that she was a bear. She’s on tv, she’s doing damage control, nothing more.
I know that O.C. prices have been historically high, but there must be an error in the article’s claim that this is the first time under $500K since December \\199//, no? Maybe should be 2003?
YOUR BLOGGER: YES, I GOOFED. 2003. SORRY!
+++++++ I do not need to worry about money now! Because I found a millionaire in famous BBW=big beautiful women dating club ___PlusMeet … c0 m____! So happy!
Oh yes, I feel bad, I was brutal. Not. I think truth dances around your mind like a little ballerina only kicking you occasionally.
What’s the problem? We are still in the middle of a credit crisis with employment prospects at an all time low. Interest rates? Going up.
It’s going to take over a year for everything to “settle down”. Buy now or buy 16 months from now, you are not “missing out” on anything. Buy now and pay a little less interest or buy later and pay more interest but less on the sales price, just DO NOT think of your home as an investment - it’s just a wonderful place to live, how much is that worth to you?
But I will give you this. It is strange that Ms. Olick has begun to find hope where she could find none before just as it’s announced that GE, the parent company of CNBC is starting an $8 Billion Fund with the largest Developement company in Abu Dhabi, to invest in Real Estate construction here and overseas.
finally 400k’s… what took so long? the good news, the slide will eventually stop after another 100k. just remember to buckle your safety belts. you could learn a lot from a dummy (or all those dummies, to be more accurate)
“One year ago, THE HIGH END was selling as evidenced by Lee’s graph. today THE LOW END is selling as evidenced by Lee’s graph. Nothing more.”
well if the HIGH (perjorative?) end isn’t selling, there’s got to be a problem, hasn’t there…
Mulli could it be that the high end isn’t selling becuase it is still way overpriced? People who have money are smart and they are waiting to see what shakes out. The low end is selling becuase you see most of the price drops there and until you see larger price drops in the high end I don’t think you will see high end sales pick up.
Seems like straight forward logic.
Hey maybe we can all get fake ID’s and move to Laguna Woods.
Laguna Woods 92637 $415,000 29.7% 27 -3.6%
“TUPELO - At a recent open house, a band played while attendees snacked on pork tenderloin, all the while admiring the views inside and out of the 8,000-square-foot home.”
Are the beach homes gonna do this? That would be fun.
Buyers are buying the discounted homes.
As more expensive homes are discounted to the same degree - you will see the median rise.
Will that mean prices are rising?
Hell no. But you can be guaranteed the bulls will lay claim to that. Too bad you heard it here first that such a conclusion could not be further from the truth, obviously.
Logic is easily lost on this blog. it has been replaced by fear, excitement, frustration and anger.
Meanwhile, how many people think the median home was $500,000 in 1993 as claimed by our dear blogger?
WTF?
YOUR BLOGGER: YES, I GOOFED. 2003. SORRY!
” I think truth dances around your mind like a little ballerina only kicking you occasionally.”
Priceless, Alfalfa!
provider and seeking - are you having a bad day? Like I said on a different thread.
Go back to bed and start over girls.
The housing market will become a bull market again….hmmm…..someday.
Melidiot, WTF are you blabbering about now? Go through this thread and explain your hysterics earlier.
Hysterics? Gosh, I’ve been laying pretty low.
The financial market is doing good today.
Don’t worry be happy.
Oh now Melody has sent me to my room. Melody you remind me of an Engilsh teacher I had in High School. She had written on her black board a quote from Henry David Thoreau “If a man loses pace with his companions, perhaps it is because he hears the beat of a different drummer”. And when I had the audacity to question her voracity, she would stand if front of that quote and ask me why I couldn’t be like everybody else and behave.
Who said Irvine was untouchable?
Irvine 92612 $426,500 -32.0% 34 -12.8%
Even the nicer neighborhoods are getting wiped out!
You gotta feel bad for those donkeys who bought in poser neighborhoods like that slum Villages of Columbus. The smart ones left a year ago. Those who are left will pay dearly for thier arrogance.
Your mortgage payment is about due…. do you need some help? There’s a site (prosper.com) where you can ask for help if you can’t find a normal loan that you like.
Not my fault.
provider, from the links you provided,
For 2008 sales from February on,
87.5% of all Irvine houses bought in 2007 sold for a loss
83.7% of all Irvine houses bought in 2006 sold for a loss
82.2% of all Irvine houses bought in 2005 sold for a loss
38.6% of all Irvine houses bought in 2004 sold for a loss
0% of all Irvine houses bought in 2003 or earlier sold for a loss.
I have no idea on HELOC, etc. Just based on last sale price.
Thanks for the link. It really highlights how difficult the selling environment is now.
You missed all the other zips that weren’t twisted by a statistical blip. And the Villages of Columbus are “poser” neighborhoods? LOL! It’s a modest neighborhood, is centrally-located and has outstanding schools. Some people who bought over 2 years ago got fried, but everyone else is sitting just fine today.
new2oc,
Wow, I didn’t realize it started that soon. That is great news. Thanks.
Shut your trap, Melody.
What zips are those provider. I want to see all the lil dots when I pull it up on ziprealty. Typically, when you show any area that shows homes sold in the last 2 years - it’s jaw dropping.
New2OC, what the hell are you talking about?
My bad. Although my teacher was a bit pudgy, it was her veracity I questioned not her voracity.
Hey Mel just think they will have a timeline like that when this thing is finally over. I wonder what it will look like? My son will be asking questions for his college reports and saying things like, was it really like that? Funny by then I will be lying my arse off and saying I called bottom down to the hour! JK :) I can barely predict sunset but I have common sense and that tells me we are in for ride.
Don’t worry Mel you can throw out all the numbers on both sides but that does not change the fact the price has been declining and is continuing to decline. It is evident in the fact that nearly half the listings have had some price reduction from original list price. That doesn’t sound like a healthy market. None of the bulls want to address this fact. Why are they lowering price if they weren’t overpriced to begin with? It doesn’t take a MBA in economics to see the reason. Again it goes back to logic.
Every home I have ever sold went through at least one price reduction. Everyone always shoots high. You are making something out of nothing.
“According to Yahoo!® Finance, Look for bargains this fall. At least three factors should lead to a price nadir this fall, if it hasn’t happened already, and the typical seasonal fall sales decline will magnify the effect:
REO-holding banks get more desperate. A lot of banks have been holding a lot of real estate for a long time, and you know what that means.
Investors sell for tax reasons. A lot of investors hoped for better but may throw in the towel to capture tax write-offs.
Homebuilders clear inventory, to get it off the books and start 2009 fresh.”
So what does our fall season look like?
Stashing - common sense is key here. I think I am logical and I have tons of patience.
# Jimmy2 Says:
“Melody, those 2.2M CdM fixers were 800K in 2001. Melody, I feel sorry for anyone who bought one of those. Fools.”
—
What’s their value now Jimmy? Asking 2.2, but nobody buying.
7 or 8 years older and needing a bit more fixing. Fixing ain’t cheap.
Don’t gloat til the market makes sense. Even YOU aren’t foolish enough to think it makes sense now. You told us you’ve been looking for a deal and can’t find one.
You’re just a damn hypocrite.
ah provider - come on
I remember a time when there were bidding wars and the prices kept going up. Did the real estate industry make a big deal about it - you bet.
Now, price reductions are “no big deal”. Whatever.
So during the bubble every house sold went through some price reduction??? I thought during the bubble houses had multiple offers and they were selling above list?
pdu, in the 1990s, foolish opinions were everywhere. Some of the lines:
1) Don’t buy, they said. It is too high.
2) Out of line with the fundamentals.
3) It will be cheaper if you wait.
4) The county is bankrupt.
5) The job market is terrible.
jimmy -
So how is it different this time?
PDU your right even activebuyer is saying the same thing.
“Should be interesting to see what the standard fall price drop amounts to – I am still hoping to find that one bargain buy.”
If housing is near bottom there should be plenty of good deals. Why if this thing was nearly at bottom you should be able to cherry pick but it’s not over yet and this winter will be the tell tale.
Jimmy you can say the same thing for people in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007. Same foolish opinions
1) Buy now before it goes up and you miss the boat
2) Bottom is near and it is going to be a “V” shaped curve
3) We should only see a 10-15% drop so bottom has to be near
4) The new jumbo limit is going lower rates
5) It’s only the subrime mortgages that are bad and it is a small segment of loans compared to prime.
You can spin it in either direction but the fact is the market sucks right now. You can call it doom and gloom if you are a bull or call it reality if you are a bear. In either case you cannot say the RE market is healthy.
Melody-
Someone confused us as the same poster. Funny!
Don’t try to have a rational discussion with Provider. You show her anything that contradicts her mantra, “Well it’s not happening in Irvine!”. She comes right back at you and then says, “Well not in that zip code in Irvine!” Then she’ll come back and say, “Well not that house in that zip code in Irvine!”
It just isn’t worth it.
When houses sell now at 94% of list, you have to ask, have those houses had reduced prices? About 50% of all listings have reduced prices now. So the fact that a house sells for even less than the reduced asking price should tell you something.
By the way, at 94%, a 6% discount on $800,000 is almost $50K. That’s a pretty big discount.
Hence that’s why the median keeps falling!
AlfalfaForBrains,
Nobody here questions your voracity — :)
vo·raci·ty (-rs-t), vo·racious·ness (-rshs-ns) n.
Synonyms: voracious, gluttonous, rapacious, ravenous
These adjectives mean having or marked by boundless greed.
…….and “veracity” and “SeekingAlfalfa” are mutually exclusive concepts, so never fear, my dear, NO ONE here will ever accuse you of veracity.
Even your teacher knew better.
Just a Question: Why you would question your teacher’s veracity in the situation you described?
It’s proper to question the veracity of the quotation, but not the teacher’s veracity.
But, then again, it’s consistent with the “you” we see here:)
Marc(ia) damn girl, get your facts straight. It was 96% of list, not 94%. Gawd, you STILL don’t get that you need a respectable sample amount to draw conclusions? Damn, I learned that in grammer school.
seeking -
Speaking of multiple offers and banks not being very “user friendly”, I would recommend to anyone considering a purchase to question the realtor (show proof) when they claim that there are other offers. These are tough times and desperate people do desperate things.
Why are the banks holding out?
PDU It took you 34 minutes to figure that out, even though I had already made the Mea Culpa. You’re just quick like a bunny. I’ll bet you were teachers little pet and never questioned anything she ever told you. You’re such a Cousin Sid.
Realtors aren’t gonna show you a damn thing. They have a duty to their client to keep their affairs private.
The bank sends an addendum and you either sign it or you don’t. If you ask the bank to see the other offers, well hopefully they’ll be polite.
Time to invest in drug stocks. Renters suffering depression and will need Prozac.
The volumetric of bear veracity is decreasing
Yep, the girls are having a bad day.
I know those underwires are so uncomfortable sometimes
Alfafa,
No, sweetness and kindness, it didn’t take 34 minutes to figure it out…..it was glaringly obvious at one glance.
Unlike you, maybe I don’t live on this blog.
As far as never questioning the teacher…..I had enough sense not to question my teacher’s veracity. There is a difference between questioning the veracity of a statement and the veracity of the person making the statement. A distinction that obviously eludes you.
provider,
ipoplaya.com has a listing of paired sales (IPO Case-Shiller price index). I looked at that data from that link, and those are the numbers. Check it out yourself.
SeekingAlfalfa Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
PDU It took you 34 minutes to figure that out, even though I had already made the Mea Culpa. You’re just quick like a bunny. I’ll bet you were teachers little pet and never questioned anything she ever told you. You’re such a Cousin Sid.
provider Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Realtors aren’t gonna show you a damn thing. They have a duty to their client to keep their affairs private.
SeekingAlfalfa Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
The bank sends an addendum and you either sign it or you don’t. If you ask the bank to see the other offers, well hopefully they’ll be polite.
Jimmy2 Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
check those times. 4 names one guy, with a real twitch to post.
You bears think it is weird out of 3 million people there would be one nut will to spend all day posting?
You can find one nut who will believe most anything in OC. So what?
Let the nut job be
Now Jimmy,
renters are not as strapped financially as mortgage debtors. I would be a bear on alcohol and depression drugs thou. Renters are happy, rent (mine) went down, we’re not stuck and our phones are silent. Property taxes are due soon, I wonder how many don’t pay this time? It was substantially high last year. Have you noticed the sheriff’s out in full force with those radar guns? They need the money,
Notice it takes the nut a some time to respond, when he is nut in a hyper mood pounding out his comments under his multiple names
Just seeing how fast the nut could type in his dribble
Yep if I were the nut with multiple screens I could go craZy
OMG jake - please don’t tell me this is one person. A multiple personality disorder? I like to keep an open mind but that’s just sic.
Mulli - one of your favorite words just came up ;)
# Jimmy2 Says:
‘Time to invest in drug stocks. Renters suffering depression and will need Prozac.”
—
Reality is a crutch for people who can’t cope with drugs.
- Lily Tomlin
jon could actually verify that if he wanted to.
I’m sitting here just shaking my head…….
Up to 30 posts, Mel. Breathe.
Of course you are.
New, I fail to see what you are referring to. One thing I did see though: the index hasn’t budged since the beginning of the year, and isn’t THAT what all this is about?
mel o dee,
If A =B and B=C
If B =C and C=D
If C=D and E =F
then my dear Watson
A=B=C=D=E=F
All of these bulls are just the same person.
Check the record and you will see the names post in clusters of time usually 0 to 3 minutes apart. There is no other reasonable explanation to this coincidence repeated hundreds of times unless there are sitting in room together posting. Which of course they are.
But it seems to provide infinite amusement to most of the bears to knock the nut job around. And I guess it keeps the blog going.
They’re coming to take me away,
Haha, they’re coming to take me away,
Ho ho, hee hee, ha ha,
To the happy home with trees and flowers
And chirping birds and basket weavers
Who sit and smile and
Twiddle their thumbs and toes
And they’re coming to take me away,
HAHAAAAAAAAA
Then the multiple names will claim
1) The nah nah excuse
Nah Nah I don’t use multiple names you do
Nah Nah I am not a nut you are.
Nah Nah I am not a cheater , you are ask Jon to check IPs.
He spent a lot of time around the school yard.
My belief is that it gives them a sense of community and purpose which is lacking in our lives.
And in this respect the multi namer is right. The blog is providing us with a sense of community and purpose missing in our lives.
I just wish it would provide me with the information on housing that is missing in my life. Though I think now this correction is just a slow steady decline like watching very slow paint dry,.
New, that’s the third time I’ve seen that same chart. What is it you are trying to prove. Yes, dear god, houses are off the peak, substantially in some cases. However, even the chart you posted shows stability in this calendar year.
BTW, even it’s author acknowledges there is a lot of activity and somewhat stable prices.
Hmm, the first time it’s been below 500k since 1993? Are you sure it isn’t since 2003? I’m pretty certain the median home price was much lower in 1993.
YOUR BLOGGER: YES, I GOOFED. 2003. SORRY!
Thanks Jake. I can label myself stupid today.
jake:
you are the biggest nut around here.
Lasner is like a big chipmunk………….
He is gathering all the nuts in one place…………
( yeah I know lame but someone had to throw it out there )
Sorry Jon it’s Lansner………….
I called the ocregister. I emailed Jon to explain and I won’t go any further. It’s his blog and I wish he would take a more proactive approach.
Maybe he’s just sitting back laughing at all this. I don’t think it’s funny. To allow someone to use different names from the same ip should send off signals.
duped mel
You know mav, I’m more concerned about our bank situation right now.
If anyone has a big chunk of change, spread it out, do your homework…. please. Look at your 401 - carefully. Where the money going? Do you know? Who’s your beneficiary on your pension or whatever monetary item(s) you have? Do you have a secondary beneficiary?
Be safe.
mav
the mental rehabilitation center in OC is having some space for you
thanks fencewalker
melody still feeling like that ballerina smacked her in the gut and knocked the wind of her.
“‘There’s no nice way to spin it,’ keynote speaker Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, said of the local economy. ‘The jobs picture in San Bernardino-Riverside County right now is not particularly good. People want to know when are things going to bottom. Will we have a ‘V’ or ‘U’ in terms of the recovery?’”
“There has never been, until now, a decline in the median home prices nationally since the Great Depression, Green pointed out. The median income is falling and ‘financial institutions are in an environment of fear,’ he added.”
fence -
I like that guy and do read and watch his articles.
thanks.
Hey Jake notice how they all disappeared??? I always wondered……
I think you can add Shane to that list.
It’s like where is waldo???
Bummer democrats. GDP = 3.3%. I suppose the dems will continue to tell us how we are in an economic depression, and home prices are crashing. Clowns.
They do love negative information. Most fishwraps are negative and just worthless. Very few “straight forward” newspapers today. Give me the WSJ and the rest are just fabulous firestarters.
OMG!
I’m going to snatch up the bargains! Just think I can own a $250k house for only $499,999.99 (plus tax) Then I can brag that I bought one for less than $500k.
You really believe that the GDP is 3.3%? No way. I’ll predict that future examinations of the methods used to produce the GDP percentages were manipulated by the Bush Adminstration to make the downturn appear less severe than it is. That way, the GOP can justify criticism toward President Obama as being the cause of GDII.
conspiracy theorist? come on eat it…
Stash, after reading the Basket weaving article I ran out to see If I could score a Key of that Sweet Grass
The 3.3% GDP number is a big positive read on the US economy. But, the OC register decides to leave that out.
They’re back!
Poop break.
Jimmy2 Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Bummer democrats. GDP = 3.3%. I suppose the dems will continue to tell us how we are in an economic depression, and home prices are crashing. Clowns.
Mulliganville Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
They do love negative information. Most fishwraps are negative and just worthless. Very few “straight forward” newspapers today. Give me the WSJ and the rest are just fabulous firestarters.
Mulliganville Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
conspiracy theorist? come on eat it…
SeekingAlfalfa Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Actually Eat It, we don’t elect the President anymore. Both parties present a Candidate and a Business Plan to the Council on Foreign Relations and they get together at the Bilderberg Hotel In Arnhem and pick the one they like. Our voting is just a smoke screen. Now that all voting is done electronically they run all the votes through their Cray XT5 in the Basement of the UN and it makes sure the one they want wins. Just ask Jake
SeekingAlfalfa Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
“Actually Eat It, we don’t elect the President anymore. Both parties present a Candidate and a Business Plan to the Council on Foreign Relations and they get together at the Bilderberg Hotel In Arnhem and pick the one they like”
Gotta agree with Jake/SeekingAlfafa.
Damn, are prices still that high?
Actually jake, the funniest part of this, while I await to see if you would like to accept my wager, is you think just one person is a bull. That shows how clouded your judgment is to begin with. Moreover, who in their right mind would actually do that on a blog read by a few dozen people? There has to be a benefit to th action. Since there is none…keep dreaming away.
Melody: you are free to think how you wish and draw your own conclusions. I have exchanged emails with a few people on the blog…bulls and bears. They know the truth…Jake could not see the truth if it smacked him in the face.
jake, the distortion is the politicans and the media telling us we are on the verge of a depression, while a 3.3% GDP, a big positive number, is lost in the background. And, we have the media pounding us for years with “housing crash hysteria”, but beach prices are sky high. Something smells.
No Jake…I just post. Information may inspire others to respond either in agreement or disagreement, or down another line of thought all together. I do hope Jimmy posts soon though so you will continue to think as such. Make the wager $5000.
Jake I have exchanged emails with Mulli. I know his story jives with what he represents here. I don’t always agree with him. Don’t worry Mulli if I have kept your indentity so far there is no way I would compromise your privacy here or anywhere else. Plus you have my email that I have had for ever and it is my first two initials and my last name. So we are on equal footing.
I can’t however say he does not have other names (sorry Mulli but I really can’t just like you can’t say I don’t use other names) but I doubt it.
Everyone else well who knows. I don’t really care becuase they pretty much pose the same arguement anyway and if they are one person well that is more work than I could imagine. I can argue with one person posing the same arguement or 20. Really just one response. The RE market sucks right now and prices continue to decline.
You know what would be weird if they were playing both bull and bear????
Going to dinner catch you all later or catch you later or whatever…..
Mulli now you know what the M stands for… I go by my middle name.
See ya………
Jake and stashing,
When I talked to the ocregister, she/he didn’t even change the email address. Maybe I could have believed we had a family/small office doing it or something. As he is listing the names with the same IP I said stop and I almost got sick. The mood changes, the praising of the other, my gawd. She/he was right. I was gullible to the empth degree…. line, hook and sinker. Now I just ask why?
Test, this is really melody
Ok, I changed my name to Mulliganville and it’s awaiting moderation. Once you’ve been through the system (after moderation) it would fly immediately. The thang that blows is that someone could portray me and you would be none the wiser unless I told you.
That sucks.
So if what Melody says is true we have proof that someone is using many many many names, is that not right Melody? And now you could say that is a bear but I think as I said it is the t r oll or as I say the lone bull. Well as I also said there are some other bulls who on occasion visit the blog but mainly it is one person. Whether mulli is an individual character or just part of the borg I can be sure. I would say he is part of the borg.
Melody can you tell us some of the names with the same IP or email?
this is very interesting.
The Bush admin is so corrupt, why should we believe anything it says or reports…there isn’t an ounce of integrity left…just a yapping shell saying “There’s nothing wrong in America.” Only the extremely naive or stupid believe it now..hence why Bush’s ratings are at 25%…take any random selection of people and 25% will be so stupid that they are dangerous to themselves and others. Take this blog…about 25% are stupid, yapping RE shills and the other are sane and knowledgable.
Ok, I changed my name to Mulliganville and it’s awaiting moderation. Once you’ve been through the system (after moderation) it would fly immediately. The thang that blows is that someone could portray me and you would be none the wiser unless I told you.
That sucks.
Call the oc for yourself. Jake you were right.
I spoke to: Kevin Sablan, web team leader, (714) 796-3589 He verified it all in a matter of seconds.
I asked for Jon but he works from home.
Kevin might not like it but at this sad point, let em deal with it. Kevin was really nice and helpful.
Damn, some of my messages are in the moderation queue because I forgot to change my name to Melody.
I must give her credit. Took a lot of work. A lot of creativity and it’s a downright pain in the arse.
Of course you can change your name to virtually anything Melody. Automated system to ensure there is nothing offensive and you are not a spammer. I could change mine to Melody. That was not what Jake was insinuating. He truly believes that I am Jimmy/shockg/provider/sighburdood (where he been)/and others.
I am just me. Always have been. I will put my money where my mouth is…Jake…I still hear crickets.
Mel: go back and read the blog between you and I yesterday. If you still think I am a bunch of others, that is your prerogative. You will be incorrect and that will be unfortunate.
…… paging graphrix…..
….graphrix knows who it is….
…..i think there are others here who know as well….
Oh please Thoughtful…you should quit while your…hmm…your not ahead that for sure…how should I put…quit while the hole your in is not a deep a you are prepared to make it.
Why fire the web guy?
Is it because he spilled the beans?
We’ll see Bill. Lansner has no choice but to act on these lies.
YOUR BLOGGER: Folks, I’ve gone in and started to delete some of the stupidity. Let’s debate real estate, not each other! And since, nobody’s got a perfect crystal ball … so respect the opinions of others!
And, what I’d like to see/read … is when you post a link to a story … give us a 2 to 3 key paragraph summary (not the full piece) as a extra fodder for the debate.
Graphrix knows very well that I am not seeking, or calm down, or Alfalfa, or any other person the lying biatch has claimed.
Alfalfa, can you believe this lying biatch? I’m blown away.
Lansner, Melody says your employee confimed that SeekingAlfalfa, Jimmy2, own home and I are one and the same.
You must step in. Someone is lying.
“I did hear Seeking, jimmy2, provider, own home”
Your made up names are like diapers.
They both should be changed regularly, and for the same reason.
I already explained why I changed my handle (a while back) - because my personal security is extremely jeorpardized from freaks just like you. I have one handle here and will not change it.
Provider, check back through this thread and you’ll see that jake explains in detail how multiple post could be acheived. And I’ve always said that some of the bears here either were in the same office or knew each other and worked in consort. Melody did say she was in IT and I wouldn’t doubt that some of them are in the same office with her or are on Instant Messege with eachother. I figure what we are being accused of is something they have been doing all along. Otherwise how would they have it already figured out. I mean if you want an example of multiple post by one person you need look no farther than Melody, Marcia, Marc.
“I already explained why I changed my handle (a while back) - because my personal security is extremely jeorpardized”
Everyone here knows of your changed names.
So how is that protecting your security?
Ha! Right!..you have got to kidding me. Thoughtful, you really take the cake..What a hoot!
I just wrote to Lansner. I suggest everyone else also sends him an email. Let’s end this now.
YOUR BLOGGER: Folks, I’ve gone in a started to delete some of the stupidity. Let’s debate real estate, not each other! And since, nobody’s got a perfect crystal ball … so respect the opinions of others!
And, what I’d like to see/read … is when you post a link to a story … give us a 2 to 3 key paragraph summary (not the full piece) as a extra fodder for the debate.
YOUR BLOGGER: Folks, I’ve gone in a started to delete some of the stupidity. Let’s debate real estate, not each other! And since, nobody’s got a perfect crystal ball … so respect the opinions of others!
And, what I’d like to see/read … is when you post a link to a story … give us a 2 to 3 key paragraph summary (not the full piece) as a extra fodder for the debate.
Well it looks like Melody laid her egg and took off like a big chicken
“Everyone here knows of your changed names.
So how is that protecting your security?”
It obviously can’t, because there are too many scary freaks here who can’t play fair and have to harass those with dissenting opinions. What a pathetic group of humans..
Yeah, she did hightail it outta here, didn’t she. When Lansner proves she’s lying she will be gone for good. Maybe this is a good thing.
YOUR BLOGGER: Folks, I’ve gone in a started to delete some of the stupidity. Let’s debate real estate, not each other! And since, nobody’s got a perfect crystal ball … so respect the opinions of others!
And, what I’d like to see/read … is when you post a link to a story … give us a 2 to 3 key paragraph summary (not the full piece) as a extra fodder for the debate.
Bill, what is laughable is you think that the said “tro ll” could try to influence home-buying by being “pro RE” on this blog. Just the most moronic thing I believe you have ever stated. Yikes….bro….yikes.
I think all of the bears are the same person…they agree on stuff, you know? Gotta be…they just gotta be. I am calling the Register.
The only thing laughable is watching him squirm around like a lost, busted puppy dog with his tail between his legs.
When Lansner proves Melody wrong, and he will, we won’t have to suffer “Bill” anymore either. Two birdbrains, one stone.
was watching the speech (Obama). It was inspiring.
Oh, I wish I could make this up. I wish “sicko” didn’t exist. I feel so duped. Ocregister didn’t give me anything other than telling me the names under the same ip. They didn’t tell me the ip or email address. They have done nothing wrong.
When I have a question, I like to go to the source. I did.
You guys warned me some time ago. I’m sorry I didn’t listen.
Provider, I suggest you do the same and out “Medlody” and his many names.
mav,
I am going to take this further. I will be at their office tomorrow. I go by there all the time. This is total crap. We will get to the bottom of this.
It was a very well written speech. The man is charismatic but young. He might be a good president. McCain might be a good president. Neither of them has a magic want to fix the problems we all are facing.
Wow, I go to dinner and the whole place gets crazy. It’s like a soap opera in here. I had my suspicions but it’s too late to get into it tonight. Mav is right it was too entertaining to pull the curtain back.
I dont know what happen either. I dont have time to read all the posts.
FYI
Obama would be tied with the 5th yougenst president Grover Cleveland.
Teddy Rosevelt was the youngest at 42.
There have been 14 of the 44 presidents that have been 51 or younger when inaugarated.
So nearly a third of our presidents have been 51 or younger…not sure if he is all that young.
To be fair, there have been 6 presidents that where over 68 at some point during their presidency. Less than 10%.
There have been 2 that when elected that where over 68, but one died on inaugaration day (harrison). Reagan was 73 when he was elected for his second term.
Therefore, only 1 president has been over 72 when elected for a second term or less than 5%….0 for a first termer.
Another intersting political note.
Lincoln was in the illinois house of reps for about 8 years and only 1 term in congress before becoming president…and he was 51 when elected. Not bad for a guy so “inexpierenced”!
Yeah I listened to Obama too. Then I went and hid my wallet
YOUR BLOGGER: Folks, I’ve gone in a started to delete some of the stupidity. Let’s debate real estate, not each other! And since, nobody’s got a perfect crystal ball … so respect the opinions of others!
And, what I’d like to see/read … is when you post a link to a story … give us a 2 to 3 key paragraph summary (not the full piece) as a extra fodder for the debate.
YOUR BLOGGER: Folks, I’ve gone in a started to delete some of the stupidity. Let’s debate real estate, not each other! And since, nobody’s got a perfect crystal ball … so respect the opinions of others!
And, what I’d like to see/read … is when you post a link to a story … give us a 2 to 3 key paragraph summary (not the full piece) as a extra fodder for the debate.
The Larspur property is not a money loser as far as I can tell. The prior sales price is bogus. Look at the 2006 tax basis - still in place. Look at the photo street view - it was an empty lot. No one paid $2.7 for an empty lot - at least not that one. Bad info.
Lansner fixed the 1993 mistake that only I caught.
Well, well, well. That Larkspur house data gets even more interesting.
Turns out there are TWO houses on that lot.
314 Larkspur
2300 sf
4791 lot
$2,299,000
314 1/2 Larkspur
2000 sf
4791 lot
$1,999,999
Looks like the lot was purchased for around $1.6 million. After construciton costs, (estimated at $1,075,000 or $250/sf) they are in for $2,675,000. They are asking a combined $4,298,000. If they get asking, they will net a cool $1,623,000.
YOUR BLOGGER: Folks, I’ve gone in a started to delete some of the stupidity. Let’s debate real estate, not each other! And since, nobody’s got a perfect crystal ball … so respect the opinions of others!
And, what I’d like to see/read … is when you post a link to a story … give us a 2 to 3 key paragraph summary (not the full piece) as a extra fodder for the debate.
Not to mention that since jake goaded her into it, his credibility is shot as well but that was pretty much already a given
It’s the first time under a half-million bucks since December 1993 2003. (My bad! Corrected 8-28 8 PM) - Lansner
My bad. Although my teacher was a bit pudgy, it was her veracity I questioned not her voracity. - SeekingAlfalfa
Notice the use of the term My Bad in both sentences, it can mean only one thing. I am he and he is me and we are all together, coo coo, ka, choo.
Posting 40 minutes after Alfa…….I have got to change my handle back now…’scuze me.
LOLLL ALFALFA AND PROVIDER ( AKA ‘WHY ARE YOU SUCH A FAKE’ ),
THERE IS NOTHING ON THIS PLANET MORE COMICAL THAN YOU TWO DISCUSSING THE WORD ‘CREDIBILITY’
It’s shrinking Mr. Wizard!
You can always tell who the rookie blogers are. They get emotionally sensitive to comments, then start to behave badly.
The true fact is, no one is gonna change each others position or opinion. So why bother with the bashing. You all act like the bashing is true, then take it personally.
Blogging 101
Post your opinion. And if you disagree say so. Then move along.
rookie chumps (all of you) :lol: :lol: :lol:
Provider,
I only briefly looked at your “Playa” link…sounds so professional by the way. Anyhow, I see that he has low asking price and sale price. The only way we can compare how the homes have faired in the market is to know the high asking price and what the last sale price was (if it sold in the last 4 years). That is the only way to know if it has held up in this market.
Im heading to the chiro in a bit, so I will do a little homework later. I will randonly pick a few homes and post what I find.
Asking means nothing. He is making a point about loss or gain. What people initially ask for is irrelevent…..especially now.
Actually, Samson, what you intrepreted as “high ask” (and the author calls “last price”) was actually “prior sale amount”. He doesn’t show any listing history at all.
Sounds to me like someone bought beach property and is now seeing their equity dwindle away. One person talking up the market isn’t going to right this ship! You’re ridiculous!
Jimmy2 Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 8:44 am
You have to wonder about these numbers. Home prices down 30%?These numbers are highly deceptive. If I saw a beach property drop 30%, I would be writing an offer. Where are these deals at? Still, in the CdM blocks I know, a fixer single family starts in the low 2M range, and that is as high as I have ever seen these prices.
I suspect, the 30% drop is mostly do to the average person buying a cheaper home ( i.e. smaller and in a worse city ), than the average person bought several years ago.
Fact is, if you missed a no money down beach home, you missed a lottery ticket
“# provider Says:
August 29th, 2008 at 6:21 am
Lansner fixed the 1993 mistake that only I caught.”
Oh really? Let’s see……
“# OCHRA Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 9:47 am
I know that O.C. prices have been historically high, but there must be an error in the article’s claim that this is the first time under $500K since December \\199//, no? Maybe should be 2003?
YOUR BLOGGER: YES, I GOOFED. 2003. SORRY!”
“# Eric Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Hmm, the first time it’s been below 500k since 1993? Are you sure it isn’t since 2003? I’m pretty certain the median home price was much lower in 1993.
YOUR BLOGGER: YES, I GOOFED. 2003. SORRY!”
Ummm…. those were delayed posts. They hadn’t cleared moderation yet. Great contribution to the discussion on housing!
Yes, New2OC, you can find some losses, but you can also find plenty of winners. Most of the losses were small. And that Sonora property is the steal of a lifetime. It was a model home that someone seriously overpaid for, and it’s not even that big. The resale price, is accurate in my opinion.
Sorry, that didn’t come out right. The price of $1,070,000 is right for its size, but it has hundreds of thousands in upgrades and landscaping. Someone will be quite happy there.
Samson, the very first enty shows a “last price” of $659,500 and a closing price of $1,120,000.
Ah, I see what happened. Samson, we are debating the “Case Shiller” spreadsheet that is found at the blue link. The main site is not nearly as useful.
Take a look at all the big downpayments in column K. I think the average was around $300,000.
OK got it. So looking at that sheet I see many homes that have big drops in value as compared to the peak. I think that is the argument here is that homes values have dropped vs. the peak in 2007.
For example and I will just do a couple. (im supposed to be helping someone move right now)
51 Appleglen bought in Jan/06 for 810K sold in June of 06 for $650,000 . This is a 20% drop in value.
3 Zuma bought in april of 06 for 811K sold in July of 08 for $655K a drop in value of 19%.
30 Montclair bought in Dec. 06 for 1.5 million sold in July of 08 for $1,290,000 a drop of 14%.
10436 Vernon Ln bought in Jan of 06 for 975K sold in June of 08 for $740,000 a drop in value of 24%.
63 Copper Leaf bought in Oct 06 for 733K sold in May of 08 for $590,000 a drop in value of 18%.
Now I know you might argue the point, I picke 06 dates, because they were closest to the peak in 07. I sure the value was probably even higher in 07 than when they bought in 06 so the drop in value is even greater.
This proves that there are many homes that have lost value ranging from 14 to 24% in Irvinve. Now of course you are not going to see 30% across the board in Irvine and other higher end neighborhoods, but an average of around 19% is substantial (using just these 4 homes) at least in my mind. These people had to sell losing at least 200K in the process….basically there whole down payment.
This is under the 30% average loss, and there are places in OC that probably have a 40-50% drop….this is why the median price drop is 30%.
Call it what you want Irvine is being hit pretty hard by this downturn.
It’s not an average of 14% to 24% overall, those are just the ones you zeroed in on. Maybe you should look again.
The number you gave is the high loss, not the average.
37 Olivehurst 2006/$649,500 - 2008/$549,000 (-15%)
122 Talmidge 2006/$650,000 - 2008/$600,000 (-8%)
10 Gainesmill 2006/$735,000 - 2008/$655,000 (-11%)
I have said over….and over……and over that we are significantly off the 2006 peak. We differ on amounts.
Plenty of those sellers made money…and lots of it. These numbers are represent the extreme of people who bought very late in the game.
Excuse me, I misspoke the average is (somewhere) between 14%-20% from peak. Many homes are at -15%…..for now.
Hey I like the for now part. So you think they are going down? Becuase I would hate to think you are implying they are going up soon.
Whatever they do, it won’t be forever. That’s one thing I can guarantee.
On the face it, you can’t argue that people who bought in the last three most likely overpaid and if the bought on margin or with 100% financing they are in trouble, particularly those with I/O and Option-ARM loans. The stats of the use of those loans leads me to believe that a lot more defaults are on the way followed by a swell of foreclosures and distressed sales in the better neighborhoods that some seem to think will be immune to this cycle. It has never happened that way before so why should it happen that way this time. If anything the nicer neighborhoods will fall just as fast and just as far as the lower end homes once the capitulation begins. Fight it if you must but accept you will, eventually.
last three years that is.
Hey Eat it.
“Fight it if you must but accept you will, eventually.”
Got a little Yoda quote going………….. Nice! :)
Nice to see civility restored to the board.
Darn it Mulligan…..I was busy. I should have been around, Huh?:)
This civility crap has to stop!
Ok…So I was a little bored. I took a look at that case shiller list. Of all the homes listed there where 56 that were last sold in 2006 and 2007.
The total last sold price for those homes was $55,400,000 the recent sale price was $46,000,000 a difference of $9,400,000 or 17% with an average loss of $168,000.
I find that to be extremely significant. I want to note that only 7 of the homes where last sold in 07. If you take into account that the comparison in Jons chart relates to peak prices in June 07. It is very easy to assume that the 17% loss of these 2006,2007 last sales is much closer to 20% off of peak value.
So again you are incorrect. An over 10 million dollar loss is a lot of money, no matter how you see it, and to down play it is extremely short sighted.
Things are only likely to get worse.
Very interesting. The facts, not the opinion that is! I don’t buy your extra 3%. So it is off 17% from peak. That’s not far from what I’ve been saying for months. How do you pull that data off of a pdf anyway? I tried and tried, but couldn’t extract it.
For the record:
The peak in Irvine was really 2005. I know this for a fact. This applies to all of Irvine - I guarantee it.
We know your guarantee is legit.
things will only get worse. Save your money.
Well it took me awhile, but I highlighted it, and hit copy than I put it into an excel worksheet. I dumped all the homes that werent last sold before 2006 and did some cutting and pasting and made some simple formulas.
So you are saying prices started falling in 2005? I dont understand? If prices were higher in 2006 than 2005 how would 2005 be the peak?
We can squabble over the 3%, but I think it is realistic and accurate…prices where going up 10% or more a year in most areas between 2006 and 2007…it isnt hard to believe that the homes listed on there that last sold in 2006 were @6% higher in 2007. So it is easy to determine that prices were higher for those homes and therefore the drop in price is higher than they show.
…but thats logical so Im sure my point is lost.
I tried every kind of cut and “paste special” to no avail. Ugh.
Yes, volume and prices started to soften big time in 2005. I know the market intimately. There is no way in h3ll that prices were higher in 2007, forget it.
The number is 17%. Gawd, I have been called many, many nasty things for stating just that throughout this year.
Make that soften in year-end 2005.
Year-end 2005, that is.
Hmmmm….If you highlight with the left button of the mouse like you would anything else, click on what you highlighted, than hit copy, then open a word or excel document and click paste….it should work.
I have Office 2007, maybe it can read PDF’s better than older versions, Im not sure.
It did take a bit of work to get things cut and pasted, but it wasnt that tough.
If you want I can email you the excel file.
Well, Provider 17% is still high when many (and I dont know if you did) claimed that markets never drop…it does appear that the market will still drop a bit, before it recovers…I can gladly do the numbers for you on the future months when you post them.
I will have to believe you on the fact that prices went flat on 2005 in Irvine..I have no data to dispute it.
On a seperate note, one of the things I found interesting was many of the homes I looked up on zillow came up as still being on the market, but they could be a bit behind.