What a difference a year can make, especially when a year ago O.C. housing was being zapped by on fast-brewing credit crunch.
Here’s what the biweekly O.C. housing report from Steve Thomas at Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo says, with data as of last Thursday…
- Demand (homes put into new escrows) is up 103% in a year. Fresh pending sales from the past month rose 51 in two weeks to 2,991. One year ago, demand was 1,475 after dropping by 329 pending sales in just two weeks.
- Supply, or active listing inventory, fell 289 homes in two weeks to 14,059, the lowest level since April 5, 2007. Last year at this time, inventory was 17,881 homes, 21% higher.
- The expected market time for all Orange County homes to sell at the current sales pace fell to 4.7 vs. 12.12 months a year ago. This measure of supply remained in double digits until February of this year.
- Shoppers was cheap homes! It would take 3.8 months to sell all homes listed at $750,000 or less; 10.3 months above that mark.
- Thomas says: “Even with the giant negative spotlight on the financial markets and distressed properties, the Orange County housing market is at a much healthier place compared to the past couple of years and is on the road to an eventual recovery.”
- Supply of distressed homes is at a 14-week low. CLICK HERE to read more.
Here’s the data, as of last Thursday, for listings, deals pending, and market time in months vs. 2 weeks ago and a year ago (Note: k=thousand; m=million) ….
| Slice | Listings | Deals | Time (mos.) | 2 wks. ago | 1 yr. ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| •$0-$500k | 6,850 | 1924 | 3.56 | 3.69 | 11.26 |
| •$500k-$750k | 2,868 | 649 | 4.42 | 4.71 | 12.05 |
| •$750k-$1m | 1,606 | 210 | 7.65 | 7.27 | 12.30 |
| •$1m-$1.5m | 1,148 | 131 | 8.76 | 10.11 | 12.99 |
| •$1.5m-$2m | 655 | 42 | 15.60 | 16.60 | 12.98 |
| •$2m-4m | 780 | 44 | 17.73 | 15.56 | 18.04 |
| •$4m+ | 353 | 15 | 23.53 | 49.71 | 13.14 |
| All O.C. | 14,059 | 2,991 | 4.70 | 4.88 | 12.12 |
Read more about the housing market in SoCal and California:
- SoCal’s long homebuying slump ends
- New Riverside tollway in the works?
- O.C.’s Q2 home price drop 5th worst in U.S.
- Calif. June home price plunge 28%, worst in U.S.
- 25% of O.C. homebuyers grab a foreclosure
- Calif. home prices down 27.3%, nation’s worst
- Calif. homebuying at 13-year low
- O.C. house supply down to 8 months
- Inland Empire house construction down 89% from ‘05
- Gas prices blamed for growing Calif. building slump
Find out more about: HOME PRICES | INVENTORY | RENTS | FED | MORTGAGE RATES | FORECLOSURES | OUR POLLS | GARDENS
From June 2
$500-750k 3,316 houses 663 deals
That is a drop of 448 inventory house in 2.5 months with number of deals about constant. I wonder what will happen after Labor Day.
Ya think a few sales like this one might make difference?
05/25/2008
$21.6 Billion (take down price) package which is currently available and in escrow, offered at 34 + 3 of BPO.
This comes from a hedge fund that purchased directly out of an institution.
The product is:
10% NPNs
90% Single family REOs
Properties are located in: CA, NV, TX, FL, NY, NJ A Seller’s Letter of Authority can be provided with LOI and soft proof of funds.
this is a good sign for home owners
looks like things are turning in orange county
advise to people who dont own a honme-dont be envious of home owners. here is an opportunity for you to buy a home, now.
How much of this demand is from organic sales? LoL
Now for a little perspective.
Gary “In the Bag” Watts at his absolute best! Pay special attention to the first quote, “Look mom, no hands!”:
10/23/2005 ~ “I only forecast off the numbers … It’s all based on pure economics.” ~ Orange County Register
02/13/2006 ~ “Fifteen percent is pretty much in the bag for Orange County in 2006,” he says. “It’s impossible for prices to go down this year.” ~ Fortune Magazine
07/21/2006 ~ “I think we probably are not going to see 15 (percent), but I think 11 or 12 (percent) is still realistic.” ~ Orange County Register
07/22/2006 ~ “”August ought to be the last month of weak appreciation numbers.” ~ Orange County Register
07/22/2006 ~ “I really think that we are pretty close to the bottom of our real estate prices … August ought to be the last month of weak appreciation numbers.” ~ Orange County Register
12/31/2006 ~ “If the un-motivated sellers stay out of the market, we could be in for a very big surprise.” ~ Orange County Register
01/01/2008 ~ “Cyclical housing downturns have always occurred. The good news is these situations do not last forever. The cycles tend to run approximately 27 to 36 months, so this cyclical downturn should run its course by summer.” ~ Impact Real Estate Jan 2008 Housing & Economic Forecast
06/23/2008 ~ “I apologize for not knowing what Wall Street did to our mortgages” … “I had no idea how Wall Street restructured these loans.” ~ Orange County Register
Good catch, Bruce. That’s the category to watch.
The California Association of Realtors says prices will continue to drop into next year. Demand may be rising but they’re the knife catchers. Smart money is staying on the sidelines.
With total distressed and foreclosure inventory at 5,865 and a burn rate this month of 1,725, market time for the combined category is 3.4 months. That fits the definition of a seller’s market. With 93% of all distressed and foreclosure properties under $750,000 and market times for those categories between 3.56 and 4.42, this also qualifies as a seller’s market.
bulwark Says:
August 25th, 2008 at 6:55 am
“The California Association of Realtors says prices will continue to drop into next year. Demand may be rising but they’re the knife catchers. Smart money is staying on the sidelines.”
Higher sales in the West in July compared to that in previous months. But this accompanied higher inventory and huge price plunge. This isn’t over by a long shot.
What does the continuing crash in prices define? A seller’s market still? LOL.
I am also amused that while you reject Santa Ana as a part of OC when it comes to pricing, you embrace it when it comes to sales volume. Who cares about bulk auction sales of Santa Ana slums? How are sales in Newport Beach?
I’d be happy to erase Santa Ana from both sales AND inventory figures. That would improve the numbers, not hurt them. Newport is a special market. Look at Irvine, sales are brisk, prices are holding and market time is around three months.
own_home or trust fund child home owner-
I would rather buy elsewhere than than the overprice dumps or gaudy houses in the OC. No sign of envy .
Mortgage rates don’t effect Hedge Funds and Sovereign Funds, they pay cash.
The bottom is in. Again.
Someday the bottom callers will be right. But, that someday will not be for a few more years.
….. alfalfa, you still don’t get that they are investing based on fundamental values, based on what people actually make in a given location…..
…… investors lead to price drops…..
…… but you don’t get what a true investor is…..
…… so i can’t help you…
They don’t care and they don’t give a fig about what a you think. Have you gotten any calls from Prince Alwaleed asking you if the fundamentals look OK? I didn’t think so. They have the cash to make the markets sit up and bark like a dog if they want to. They have made Billions in oil from this country and now they will put it back into Real Estate and they will buy NPN’s and REO’s at pennies on the dollar and they will make money while you are still fiddiling with your statistical spead sheets and you HP12-C.
…. alfalfa you are a total fool….
….. they can only sell to the masses….
…. based on incomes and loan availability….
….. this is why they must by at 25 cents on the dollar….
…. do yourself a favor and find some new news…..
…. or go out and buy a new mercedes because your future income stream is in the bag…..
Scary huh Mav
It just seems that until the forclosures return to a some what normal levels the price will still drop. It is normal for foreclosures to sell under the comps and with half of the sales being distressed properties they are selling them below the comps. These forclosures become the new comps and so on and so on, until the foreclosures ebb.
Great for the industry to see better sales numbers but I don’t see the price bottom until among many other things foreclosures get near normal pace.
Must Buy at .25 cents on the dollar? I’ll bet you’ve really got to twist their arm.
i agree with this article.
now i need to run for cover to avoid the cyper bully here.
……. what’s scary is that we are on the brink of something much worse than what we have already experienced…..
… the trends in unemployment, inflation, home price drops, foreclosures, and credit availability will all be getting worse over the next 3 years…..
….. this is the mother of all recessions…..
….. the negative feedback loop is in full swing….
….. it’s a downard death spiral of deflation…..
….. i wish it wasn’t true….
Stash,
I posted an article a couple of days ago that was a follow up to the one on Bulk Sales. It said that in fact there would be recorded transfers on each property and to do this an appraisal would be needed to determine as is and as repaired values. I wondered how this would effect the comparables in an area so I called a friend who is a Certified Appraiser and he said that appraisers were making adjustments for REO properties if they are used as comparables. So yeah they will in the short term ( 1-2 years ) have an supressing effect on prices but it may not be as bad as some expect.
Mav, Dogs and Cats living together, Lions and Tigers and Bears OH MY!!. I think I’m going to start calling you Happy
The operative word “if” they are used for appraisals. They may be thrown out alltogether if valid comps exist. There’s also the fact that they are hardly spread out evenly over the whole of OC.
Hey what is that a picture of on the Monte Carlo Banner ad? The Bermuda Triangle?
Provider,
that is true, and I would imagine as the REO’s dry up they’ll be used less and less.
Lee,
Gary Watts is a good friend of mine, and is an excellent real estate broker.
Please stop stalking him, and spamming this board with quotes from him. Nobody else here on this forum finds that amusing except for you and 2-3 dozen other people.
Regards
There is somthing in the Monte Carlo add besides the bikini girl and the martini????
Like I said and you said they will have an effect. I can’t say where the bottom will be (price or time) but even in the article you posted alfalfa the investors expected atleast another 10% drop in prices. Even 10% will bring many areas near affordabliity. The median price is now 450k drop 45K off and your nearly in the 300’s.
…. there are a few here who simply have no clue how problematic the collapse of fannie and freddie will be for the world economy….
….it is a landmark financial event….
… it is OK….
…. they will learn, the hard way….
Steve Thomas says: “the Orange County housing market is at a much healthier place compared to the past couple of years”
Yes, with a third of the people in OC under water on their homes, many by six figures, that’s much healthier…
Provider says:
“With total distressed and foreclosure inventory at 5,865 and a burn rate this month of 1,725, market time for the combined category is 3.4 months. That fits the definition of a seller’s market.”
Way to ignore the 1,000+ new foreclosures entering the marketplace each month. True net burn rate < 700 foreclosures a month.
“they will learn?”
As if the collapse of Fannie and Freddie only affects a portion of us? Are you for real?
Anybody ever hear of PennyMac?
……… gilligan……
……some already understand…..
……for those who don’t……
……here is a quick lesson……
…..in case you have not learned arleady….
………..”collapse”……….
….and “bail out”……….
…….mean the exact same thing….
# Top OC Producer Says:
August 25th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Lee,
Gary Watts is a good friend of mine, and is an excellent real estate broker.
Please stop stalking him, and spamming this board with quotes from him. Nobody else here on this forum finds that amusing except for you and 2-3 dozen other people.
Regards
TO LEE IN IRVINE
PLEASE
PLEASE
PLEASE
DO NOT STOP POSTING GARY WATTS QUOTES HE HAS SAID
IF U DO IT WOULD BE UNFAIR ALL NEED TO SEE WHAT GARY WATTS IS ALL ABOUT
I APPLAUD WHAT YOU DO LEE IN SHOWING THAT THESE SO CALLED PROFESSIONALS ARE NOTHING MORE THAN GREEDY RE COMMISSION PEOPLE AND NOTHING MORE
WHEN HIS QUOTES ARE WRONG LIKE THIS GOOF BALL HAS BEEN HES NOWHERE TO B FOUND EXCEPT IN HIDING, BECAUSE OF ALL THE MONIES HE HAS(LOST) HOMEBUYERS(HIS CLIENTS)IN THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS WITH HIS CARNIVAL BARKING TECHNIQUES OF BUY BUY BUY
0
PLEASE LEE KEEP UP THE GREAT POSTS AND DONT EVER STOP
ALFALFA FOR BRAINS
AND MULLIGANHEAD
AND
PROVIDER
ISNT TIME U GUYS START A RE SALES TEAM..
U MIGHT WANT TO GO HAVE THAT CUP OF JAVA AT SOME FORECLOSED HOME.LOLL
U GUYS WASTE SO MUCH TIME HERE I WOULD ASSUME UR UNEMPLOYMENT CHECKS WILL BE RUNNING OUT SOON ….
“Way to ignore the 1,000+ new foreclosures entering the marketplace each month. True net burn rate < 700 foreclosures a month.”
The burn rate will continue to stay on top of this problem.
“I can’t say where the bottom will be (price or time) but even in the article you posted alfalfa the investors expected atleast another 10% drop in prices.’
It said no such thing. That is the worst case scenario they are prepared for.
Happy, so what kind of initiation must one under go to become one of the enlightend elite? Does it have anything to do with being bathed in the blood of a Bull (pun not intended) or worshiping a large figure of an Owl and running around the forest naked and painted blue? Morification of the flesh to some goddess, Diana Olick maybe? That’s it I can see you guys all sitting around whatever office you’re all in, holding your keyboards in both hands, beating yourselves in the head chanting, ” All We Own, We Owe Her”. I don’t think I want to join.
….come on mav…………
………….why the dots…………..
…………seriously……………
………….inquiring minds want to know………….
“Does it have anything to do with being bathed in the blood of a Bull (pun not intended) or worshiping a large figure of an Owl and running around the forest naked and painted blue?”
Don’t knock it, till you try it. :-)
Mav stutters
HB Bear, that’s funny. You ever been to Bohemian Grove?
THE NIGHTMARE TEAM
REAL ESTATE AGENTS AND INVESTORS BE ADVISED
THE NIGHTMARE TEAM OF
MULLIGANHEAD
SEEKING ANY KIND OF BRAINS ALFALFA
AND DRUG(PROVIDER) PROVIDER
WILL BE LURKING AT A BLOG OR UNEMPLOYMENT LINE SOON
PLEASE GO BACK TO SLEEP HOPEFULLY THE NIGHTMARE OF THESE THREE WILL DIE OUT
THESE THREE HAVE TO BE THE MOST OUTRAGEOUS GOOFIEST PEOPLE AROUND.. ANYTHING THEY MAY WANT TO SAY IS JUST USELESS INFO AND MONEY LOSING THEMES..
hwood is a very credible source for information and intellect…YEP, YOU ARE CORRECT HWOOD…THAT STATEMENT IS JUST USELESS.
MULLIGANHEAD
ISNT IT TIME TO MEET UR OTHER UNEMPLOYED GOOFBALLS AT THE GOLF COURSE.
YOUR GOLF CART IS WAITING AND I NEED U TO MAKE MY DRINKS WHILE I TEE OFF…
Oh, are you playing at Pelican today too?
MULLIGAN HEAD IM PLAYING YES
YOU ARE SERVING ME MY DRINKS
“Gary Watts is a good friend of mine, and is an excellent real estate broker.
Hey Mr/Ms “Top OC Producer”,
Gary Watts is also a fraud, who mask himself as a real estate economists. He has an econ degree from Sacramento State … puulllease! He is an opportunist, who received a lot of praise as he was riding the real estate wave. Now that the music stopped, he’s been exposed as a cheap suit wearing carnival barker. Thousands of young children are being forced to relocate now because of this ponzi scheme … I hold carnival barkers like Watts, partially at fault.
There’s an old saying; “if you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen”. The same goes for Mister “In The Bag”.
My favorite quote of all time … “I only forecast off the numbers … It’s all based on pure economics.” WOW Gary, I really had no idea it was that easy.
Hmmmm, I know this is going to be tough for you hwood…but there is this thing called residual income. Look into it. Then, you will not need to work every day of your life.
What is your cocktail of choice?
If we are having drinks. I’ll take the martini with the bikini girl please!
I saw a letter posted on the gate of our gated community the other day…didn’t think much of it until I was out walking and decided to have a look…we’ll it is a Notice of Trustee Sale for house in our community…it actually tells you the owners name, address, amount, the lender/bank etc. and when the house will be auctioned off. This is third recorded foreclosure in our neighborhood in the past month but the first time I have ever actually since the notice. The amount they owe on the detached condo, $613K+. These homes are now (not) selling for low 400s (with views, this one without views so therefore less). Remember all RE is local and location, location, location!.
Nice try, Steve Thomas at Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo. we aren’t falling for any more tricks. These guys are like used car salesmen. They will use anything to make a sale.
Hold tight, and hang in there. Keep renting for at least the next 18 months, probably more like 28 months.
Mulligan, I think Hwood takes a Sterno Martini with a splash of Viltalis, stirred not shaken,
Demand doubled? Nice.
Negative tone on these comments are disturbing.
I for one am jumping in to the market now. I have waited long enough. Most of you will say “Again” I missed boat come next year.
Chuck … The last OC real estate bear market lasted about 7 years. Why would this bear market end after only 2-3 years? Answer … IT WON’T!
Keep in mind that Alt-A resets are in the very near future, and that these houses are in the better parts of town, not near the sub-primes. And none of them are going to be able to refi.
Ignore whatever fantasy future is being printed in the OCRegister.
Anyone dumb enough to believe that we are anywhere near the bottom of the real estate cycle, and purchases a home now, deserves the nightmare of being under water for 10 years.
Lee in Irvine,
“Why would this bear market end after only 2-3 years?”
Because it has already declined twice as much as the last cycle in less than half the time because of the fact that in this day and age the information flows much faster with the internet access and all the online tools and websites than it did in early 90’s.
Mulli,
You still missed my point on the internet impacting auto sales.
One can request offers from the internet department of the dealer, and/or go to sites that will have multiple dealers send you their best price.
Go to the dealer, bypass the sales guys (many of whom are ex-real estate and ex-mortgage), sign the paperwork and drive off.
The price will be the lowest that dealer can sell for and the whole crap of dancing with the salesman and the grind on the price is dispensed with.
Now you are dealing with an order taker. Easily replaced.
The internet is impacting the sales process of real estate. The old way is going the way of the old way of buying a car.
I don’t expect you to acknowledge the reality of this as you will continue to see whatever you choose to.
Everything is in place for the listing process to not be worth 3% and everything is in place for the paperwork-handler to not be worth 3%.
Don’t worry I have scuba gear!
I will come visit you if you buy a house right now.
That’s a positive…………..
Chuck, just wondering why you would like to purchase before the majority of loans reset? It will, afterall, only do one thing to home values.
“The internet is impacting the sales process of real estate.”
You managed to capture two bubbles at the same time with that statement. I just thought I would point that out.
Chuck,
You are going to jump in and you find “negative tone on these comments disturbing”.
Why ?
That is really curious Chuck. Finding them disturbing should raise some red flags for you. You need to find out what is making you disturbed.
Slow down, pay attention, read some more. It should be disturbing.
You just might come back on here someday and thank some of these guys — if, and only if, it’s disturbing enough to make you think.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
……..unless you are just another realtor :)
SoCal78,
The lenders will not let those loans foreclose for much longer. They will modify these loans. What you’re talking about is not a given fact. It’s a prospect that will not happen because it will put all of the major bank and the Federal Government out of business. It’s just a possibitity that will only exist on the paper. Mark my word !! Your interest and the fact that you want a cheap home is the last thing that the government and lenders think about. Lenders care about their own bottom line and continuation of falling prices will put them out of business. You can bet your last dollar that they will not let that happen by controlling the flow of REO inventory. It’s already happening.
Shane says..
Lee in Irvine,
“Why would this bear market end after only 2-3 years?”
Because it has already declined twice as much as the last cycle in less than half the time because of the fact that in this day and age the information flows much faster with the internet access and all the online tools and websites than it did in early 90’s.
And using the internet I can print money right from home computer to purchase the over-priced stucco box.
pdu: I know you remember hearing all of the stores that would be impacted by the internet and how they were going to go by the wayside. What happened? We still go to the grocery store to shop for food…I thought a revolutionary change in the consumer’s behavioral tendencies was going to occur.
How do you shop for your clothes pdu? You know you can order them all online without ever having to leave the comfort of your skivvies or your couch. Do some people do that? Sure they do. Most don’t though. Most STILL go shopping in person. Now why is that? I will tell you…shopping releases endorphins. Actually, people crave this release.
Where we disagree is the psychological aspects of the consumer. It is apparent you are very value driven. You do not see the value in hiring a full service brokerage to handle the sale and marketing of your property. No problem. Do it yourself or on the cheap…lots of options out there. Not everyone has the time to oversee all aspects of doing it themselves, nor are they all convinced that the least affordable service fee will bring them the best overall deal for their home. My opinion is you are too focused on the 5 or 6% and not the other 95%. Sure Redfin will sell it and give you 2/3 of their commission back…but you are still paying the buyers agent 2.5-3% on that deal. So, 3.5-4% in your example is “in the bag.”
My position is we are squabbling over 1.5-2% and I believe a good agent can get you that amount more for your home.
Do not bet the auto dealer is not paying commissions on that vehicle sale via the web…they are paying it as always.
What historical fundamentals would indicate that homes will continue to sell at the same pace for the rest of the year?
Dont home sales usually begin to dip in Sept. until Spring?
The foreclosure dont know what time of year it is, so wont they continue to hit the market at the same pace if not stronger?
Again, the average seller could care less about how many homes have sold or what the inventory is. If all they see are prices falling, they will wait. Especially those who dont need to sell in order to buy. To them falling prices mean it is a buyers market. How can it be a sellers market when the majority of the sellers are selling involuntarily?
Things are not turning around. It’s just tempting to buy now because, relative to two years ago, homes are cheap. However, people who are buying now are not buying at the bottom. The new buyers will be upside-down in no time flat.
Since the late 1990’s we’ve had huge bubbles in the stock and housing markets. Are you cashing in on the current oil bubble? Probably not. So, ask yourself, “What miracle will prop our economy up this time?” No miracles. We are going to pay for the greed of the last 10 years soon.
If you haven’t already, wave goodbye to tech stocks, house flipping, and cheap oil. Brace yourself for what comes next.
mav Says:
August 25th, 2008 at 8:28 am
……. what’s scary is that we are on the brink of something much worse than what we have already experienced…..
… the trends in unemployment, inflation, home price drops, foreclosures, and credit availability will all be getting worse over the next 3 years…..
Totally agree Mav…
Top OC Producer Says:
August 25th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Lee,
Gary Watts is a good friend of mine, and is an excellent real estate broker.
Could you tell this ol guy to fix his website?
Mulli -
After reading your posts for awhile, I find you interesting. I don’t agree with you but you do have character.
Asking Mav why she/he has all the ………… made me laugh. Thanks for that :)
“shane Says:
August 25th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
SoCal78,
The lenders will not let those loans foreclose for much longer. They will modify these loans. What you’re talking about is not a given fact. It’s a prospect that will not happen because it will put all of the major bank and the Federal Government out of business. It’s just a possibitity that will only exist on the paper. Mark my word !! Your interest and the fact that you want a cheap home is the last thing that the government and lenders think about. Lenders care about their own bottom line and continuation of falling prices will put them out of business. You can bet your last dollar that they will not let that happen by controlling the flow of REO inventory. It’s already happening.”
OMG, she finally admited that the inventory is hidden. Well done provider, this makes my day.
Awwww mulli, you’re still stuck on that damn commission. I’ve seen a realtor (really nice gal) that has tried to sell the house across the street for months. She does seem very bright but the house won’t sell. You can’t tell me that a good realtor can sell a house for more when they can’t. A house is a house. If it walks like a duck and acts like a duck - it just might be a duck.
I collect ducks by the way….
I’m glad you have other income because realtors typically are not eligible for unemployment and I don’t wish the poor house on anyone.