DataQuick reports that the median home price in Orange County dropped 27.3% over the year ending in late July to $469,000. That means home sellers are getting around $176,000 less than what they could have received last summer, though individual sales can vary substantially from the median.
Latest home-selling stats from DataQuick for the 22 business days ended July 22 show that O.C. homebuying runs +1.7% vs. a year ago. July could be first month in nearly three years for sales to exceed a year ago — the last time that happened was September 2005. (CLICK HERE for ZIP-by-ZIP sortable chart.)
It’s been quite a fall from the top:
• Single-family homes are off $195,000 or 27% below the peak of $720,000 hit in June 2007.
• Condos are off $140,000 or 30% below the peak of $470,000 hit in March ‘06.
• Newly built homes are off $265,000 or 31% below the peak of $864,000 hit in February 2005.
• Overall, the countywide median is off $176,000 or 27% below the peak of $645,000 hit in June 2007.
Here are key results for the 22 business days ended July 22 …
| Slice | Price | Vs. ‘07 | Sales | Vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houses | $525,000 | -27.6% | 1,892 | +6.5% |
| Condos | $330,000 | -28.4% | 707 | +7.8% |
| New | $599,000 | -6.8% | 196 | -38.0% |
| All | $469,000 | -27.3% | 2,795 | +1.7% |
Still skewed. Nice volume though.
Nice volume? LOL. Check out historical average sales per month reported in this blog and tell us again if the volume is good.
We’re almost certainly going to see the median drop significantly further over the next 18-24 months due to the Option Arm/Alt-A debacle which is just now starting to show its ugly face. Orange County is the Alt-A capital of the country.
Per DataQuick, Single Family Median Home Price:
2006 ~ Month End
$690,000 = Feb ~ Watts 15% “In The Bag” for SFH
$695,000 = Mar
$705,000 = Apr
$705,000 = May
$700,000 = Jun
$699,000 = Jul ~ Watts revises forecast to 11%
$685,000 = Aug
$680,000 = Sep
$665,000 = Oct
$660,000 = Nov
$665,000 = Dec
2007 ~ Month End
$675,000 = Jan ~ Watts forecast 7% SFH
$675,000 = Feb
$695,000 = Mar
$720,000 = Apr
$695,000 = May
$734,000 = Jun ~ Peak of O.C. Housing Bubble
$718,000 = Jul
$710,000 = Aug
$655,000 = Sep
$650,000 = Oct
$655,000 = Nov
$600,000 = Dec
2008 ~ Weekly ~ Month End
$583,250 = Jan ~ Watts declares “Pent up Demand”
$575.000 = Feb
$570,000 = Mar ~ Thoughtful declares “bottom”
$555,000 = Apr
$537,000 = May
$550,000 = Jun ~ Watts apologizes “I Got it Wrong”
$530,000 = 07/09
$536,000 = 07/15
$525,000 = 07/22 ~ NEW LOW!
Per DataQuick, this loss represents a $209,000 decline in single family home prices from the June 2007 high. And the beat goes on … and on … and on!
lee in irvine Says:
May 23rd, 2008 at 9:59 am
Most of us understand the median price is NOT an accurate indicator and has a lot of flaws.
the price should fall by another 20%, to bring it to 2002 levels.
only then, the market will be stable and consistent with the salaries that people are making in OC
I’m gonna throw Thoughtful a bone here and agree with her.
Most of the reductions have been in the lower (lowest?) tier neighborhoods. BUT - those losses have been creeping up. IPO documented two sales on the same home in Irvine in 24 months at 1.4m backed up with one at 1.0m. So much for Irvine being immune. Why give up 400 dimes if you don’t have to and the market is so good?
Next up, the Alt A and pick a pay disaster. That’ll wallop the “higher end homes” and be the next big leg down.
Many people who bought at the top in VOC will see real losses of 50%+. It’s a good thing we no longer pass on debts from generation to generation, and that bankrupcy is still legal, and that we don’t have debtors prisions anymore. Oh, and that we have an excelent public assistance program for destitute seniors who are insolvent and in poor health.
Whoa!!! Check out the significant increases in volume. Lower inventories, higher volume of activity…..the bottom is in the rearview mirror folks. Also, it goes without saying that interest rates are very low compared to historic averages, and that rates will be going up. So, once interest rates go up, it will become too expensive to buy.
Now’s a great time to buy.
I do agree with provider that the bulk of the sales are in the lower-priced areas and this is skewing the overall median.
But it doesn’t mean we have a “healthy” number of sales completing right now. Far from it.
Top OC Producer,
Just think of what the volume will be like when the average is 200K
RE Going DOWN, DOWN, DOWN.
At the current level, SF HOUSING PRICES ARE STILL NOT SUPPORTED BY INCOME. Another 105k drop coming soon to a neighborhood near you.
On CNBC this morning, Zandi from Moody’s was saying that “places like Orange County have hit bottom” and “California leads the way in getting at the bottom”. He should have a re-look at the numbers, at least for now. No one can say when the bottom will occur, imo.
Yes the ALT-A loans are going to be huge problem. When I was doing them and too this day I never understood how they called these prime loans???? Who cares if you have a credit score of 720 or higher if you have a low income? All you needed was a fancy title and we went off of the average that the job title paid in that area. I forget the website we used to check the average income but it was a joke. when I ran these through AU and got approved eligable I would just be amazed how little documents they required becuase of the high fico. You know those were the people trying to live off of the quity becuase they didn’t have enough money to afford the house or they would have documented thier income.
I don’t wish misfortune on anyone but if you gamble you can end up loosing. I don’t get how those people get a free pass???? On our tax $.
On another note I noticed a lot of listings in the last week going inactive in Ladera on the condos I have been watching.
OC Producer. I seem to recall that you said the same thing a few months back….
……………. even though OC home prices will drop 20+ % more……………
…………… i’m glad people can now afford what is selling……….
……………. i hope they like it, because they will be stuck with it for a long time………… no do-overs 2 years from now……….
top OC BSer- lmao clueless realtor who didnt
know there even was a bubble
provider the only thing skewed on this blog
is your super biased opinion on the market
We all know the median to be worthless…so why track this nonsense? When it was high through the summer of 2007, it was skewed by more activity on the upper end. All of this being said, 2700 homes is not at the average. BUT, lenders are loaning below their average volume…when they return to normal, and they will, so will our volume of transactions. And this will be good for the economy as a whole…unless you get off on poor economic data.
ocmac - problem with that theory is that alot of the good paying oc jobs are in finance. those job have been and will continue to contract.
credit is what has been driving the economy for at least the last two cycles(tech and housing). not all, but much of the prosperity created during those cycles will be erased as existing credit is destroyed and new credit is withheld.
most real estate agents dont seem to understand the connection between credit and economic prosperity.
my advice to anyone who doest is to hit the books because failing to understand the relationship is going to cost you significant amounts of money going forward.
“All you needed was a fancy title and we went off of the average that the job title paid in that area”
If the title is verified, which it is, why is this so scandalous?
Wouldn’t it be funny if Fannie ending stated caused the secondary market to come back stronger? Once values stabilize, there WILL be competition in the mortgage market, and this will be the way they will compete. You heard it here first.
After all, that is what gave birth to it in the first place.
……… LOL provider…….. you think the collapse of this credit bubble……. is going to lead to a new credit bubble…………. you are dreaming…….. file that away into the baskets of things that could happen in 2025…… investors are dumb…. but not that dumb……
Mull and Provider are the only smart guys on this blog.
176k is a small drop considering the big run up that occured.
Rants must be a sore loser democrat. If the democrats get in we are in real trouble. We will lose all our money and our freedom. Thats what angry people like rants want.
Real estate is always the best way to build wealth. Now is a great time to buy. It may go down a little but a house is more than an investment and it will always be there.
I bought three houses back in the 70’s and I get great rents even in this market.
There is no place like the OC. I was just down at the beach and it was so beautiful. Move to Ohio rants if you don’t like it here.
The bottom may not be here tomorrow, but when it comes you’ll surely miss it. So better to buy now then miss this great opportunity.
The stock market is up and gold and oil is down. With eveyone getting ready to drill off shore the Arabs are so afraid they are dropping the price of oil. Our economy is about to boom and then houses will take off.
We are so blessed in this country.
Have a wonderful day.
sam,
i agree with what you wrote
any prediction when will be a good time to buy home in OC?
i am planning to wait until Fall 2010. i will save money for about 30% down until then
Provider, it was scandoulous becuase people sometimes owned thier own business and could say really whatever they wanted. Not only that but the difference of pay for an office manager who works for a small 8 person office vs an office manager who worked for a large 250 person office is usually different. Sometimes the pay ranges were like from 60-100k where we could use the 100k. I also had a good suspicion that some of those people had friends or family that verified employement for people who ddn’t even work there. The main reason this was a bad practice is becuase if they could afford the house wouldn’t they just disclose their income? (reffering to ALT-A loans)
“jake Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:06 am
“Mull and Provider are the only smart guys on this blog…176k is a small drop considering the big run up that occured…Rants must be a sore loser democrat. If the democrats get in we are in real trouble. We will lose all our money and our freedom. Thats what angry people like rants want…Real estate is always the best way to build wealth. Now is a great time to buy. It may go down a little but a house is more than an investment and it will always be there.”
Either Jake morphed into Mully or his post is heavy on sarcasm.
There were excetions to the rule where people did own thier own business and wrote a lot off on thier taxes and showed lower incomes and it was obvious they could pay the mortgage. They didn’t qualify with taxes but most of those people used 6 - 12 months of bank statemments to qualify.
Geez myy tping terible! :)
Jakes conversion
This is not a psychotic episode. This is a cleansing moment of clarity. I am imbued. I am imbued with some special spirit. It’s not a religious feeling at all. It is a shocking eruption of great electrical energy. I feel vivid and flashing as if suddenly I had been plugged into some great electro-magnetic field. I feel connected to all living things, to flowers, birds, to all the animals of the world and even to some great unseen living force, what I think the Hindus call prana. It is not a breakdown. I have never felt more orderly in my life! It is a shattering and beautiful sensation! It is the exalted flow of the space-time continuum, save that it is spaceless and timeless and of such loveliness! I feel on the verge of some great ultimate truth. I AM NOW A BULL!!!!!
provider (Thoughtful, Pat) Says:
“Still skewed. Nice volume though”
The only thing skewed here is your brain.
You would be much more successful in life if you would actually believe hard facts.
Instead you chose to act like a clueless twit, having to constantly change names in this blog every other month.
Here’s a hint:
When the median price drops $200,000 you are going to see volume go to the upside.
The problem is, even a $200,000 drop can’t bring sales volumes anywhere near normal healthy levels.
Just today Fanny Mae came out today explaining “Loans are starting to default at an alarming rate”.
If you can’t figure it out by now, you probably never will.
ROFLMAO, Alf. That’s priceless!
Has anyone seen the Yahoo opening ceremonies photos? I watched 3 seperate slideshows totalling around 600 stunning photos and not one is of an American, athlete or otherwise. Even Putin had a 1/2 dozen photos, but no Bush (regardless of politics he deserves this respect). What a disgrace.
sorry oc, i typed up a long post for you but somehow it disappeared.
here is the gist. watch the data vs setting yourself a future date.
this slow down is gonna last a while. look at employment numbers, credit conditions, and forclosures. also watch the commerical real estate market(strip malls, etc). this relates to to employment numbers
pay option arm resets are going to be significant.
Again people, remember we are entering the really slow time for sales last year so YOY comparisons are going to look better than they really are. I agree with RE Dave but don’t pay the fraud equity. Jake isn’t fooling anyone. Alf , “prana”? You really believe that being a bull is a kin to inner peace and a connection of all living things? Get real. Bill absolutely right, drop in prices brings in buyers, buyers are taking distressed homes off the market leaving the equity dreamers to wilt. Thoughtful when are you going to disappear and change your name again. We should start a pool on when Thoughtful will change her name…I’ll start I’ll say August 22nd.
RealtorDaveE Says:
“If you’re planning on staying in the home for a long time, if you really like the home AND the location, if you can afford the payments using a 30-year fixed loan, and if you’ve got good job stability, and if your spouse agrees with you on it, THEN it might be the right time for you to buy”
I hate to give you flack for this, but you left out a couple of “ifs”.
If you don’t mind losing 25+% by buying in the middle of the biggest price crash of all time.
If you don’t mind having negative equity for the rest of your life.
If you don’t mind being tricked into buying a home, at one of the worst times, by a sneaky realtor who only wants your commission.
I could go on and on………………………
Spoke to soon, they just posted a slew of them. They’re remarkable photos, worth the time.
Yeah and Putin just invaded Georgia too. (For Bill, Rants and Hwood that’s Georgia the former Soviet Satellite, not the State)
I thought that the stats said that only about 40% of overall sales were distressed RE in OC. Considering that lending standards are over conservative the current volume numbers are a good sign that we are seeing some price points being hit outside of the REO intensive areas.
You can cheer for a total melt down in all areas if that makes you feel goos, but I hope you can still cheer when that melt down takes your job with it.
SeekingAlfalfa Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:49 am
“Yeah and Putin just invaded Georgia too” (For alfa and provider that’s Putin the president not the gelatin treat)
“Wouldn’t it be funny if Fannie ending stated caused the secondary market to come back stronger?”
Wouldn’t it be funny if the moon was really made of green cheese?
Wouldn’t it be funny if the tooth fairy really existed?
Wouldn’t it be funny if I was standing in line at the supermarket, a supermodel walked up, and a monkey came flying out of my butt?
lulz
He’s Premier
It’d be even funnier if you flew out of the monkeys’ butt.
Credit where credit is due: good one Bill! Now I will go kill myself.
ROFLMAO, again, Alf.
Realtor Dave,
These bears are always jumpin on anyone who speaks the truth. This is a democracy, and if you got something good to say you should not let these angry renters stop you.
Anybody who thinks they can time the market is ridiculous. Nobody knows the future, so this is the best time to buy , because things will surely be going up.
These renters are just jealous and they want everybody to be a renter. They hate America and I don’t know why they don’t move to the Russia if they are so concerned about the prices of houses here.
My grandfather came here with nothing but three toothpicks and a lepord skin and now he is a big time landlord in downtown LA.
You only get out of life what you put in it and what you can take from other people so you got to go out there and grab. Best to grab now while the grabbing is really good cause no one knows the future.
I think if more people who really know real estate would come on here and tell the truth like you do then we would not have the economic mess that the liberals have caused with ivory tower reasoning.
Some times it really makes me upset what the nay sayers have said in this country. They are so lucky to be in a country that even tolerates their ridiculous ideas. It is just slander and thank god that people like Pat Veling have programs to watch for this slander.
I hope he finds out who this character rants is and sues him. Him and all his ninks. (negative links). I think Jon should make people like him register with the register because they do nothing but sit on this blog all day and post for their personal gain.
Sorry but sometimes negativism of others just bothers me.
But you are so right , don’t think you can time the market, we are surely near a bottom and if you don’t act now you’ll miss it and your family will never build wealth and will be renting for generation just like rants and his 10 year old. I bet that is why is wife is thinking about leavin him. If he really cared about this country or his family he would buy a house and support the OC. Hypocrite! Freeloader! Wimp!
Disgust me.
But I can’t let others angry feelings effect my calm straight thinking mind.
I think I’ll head down to the beach and sit in the Taco bell over in huntington and watch the waves.
It is another beautiful day in paradise.
Have a great day.
“Mull and Provider are the only smart guys on this blog. 176k is a small drop considering the big run up that occured.”
Some of us are not blue-hairs who bought in the 1970s.
We’re looking at what decisions to make now and if you have listened to the bulls on this blog last year, you just cost your self a couple hundred grand.
wow jake thanks for the comic relief
Oh Provider,
Your elitism shines through again. It is the World Olympics! Not the Pan Am games or the Superbowl. There 205 countries represented there. The US makes up less the 5% of the world population, sorry bud, it isnt all about….and as alfalfa mentioned there is some strife going on between Russia and Georgia so it makes sense to show Putin *THE PRIME MINISTER”. Just like Real Estate news you only want to see what you want to see.
Wow Jake…you sure do hate negativism.
“It’d be even funnier if you flew out of the monkeys’ butt.”
Come on bro. Personal attacks? Is that all you got?
You claim your name is “Seeking Alfalfa”. I have hay to sell and you tell me I’m a load. You sure showed me.
If you’re going to troll do a better job. Try changing your handle.
Anyway, thanks for the lulz.
I have a comment awaiting moderation, but thanks for taking the time to respond SA. The lulz are awesome.
“Considering that lending standards are over conservative”
Wait a minute. I do not agree that there is any real historical basis for this - given the fact that the lending standards for the past 7 years can be completely ignored since they obviously do not promote economic well being.
Every lender I speak with and personally know have access to funds and are making loans - they’re just making sure that buyers can truly afford the payment.
Guys - the days of borrowing to the tune of 45% DTI are over.
Hell - even the Fed declared that anyone with a morgtage payment that is 31% of monthly gross income can be considered in need of assistance.
It is those folks with less than 700 FICO’s that are hurting - but would you blame the lenders for not wanting to take on that risk? the scores are low for a reason and that reason is that some one did NOT get paid when they were promised - by these very same folks.
These standards will lighten up for those on the low end - I have yet to see a problem on the high end. Who is trying to get a $700K+ loan? Someone that earns less than $220K a year? Hate to tell ya - they should not be. ESPECIALLY if they have other mouths to feed.
Lastly - what are the latest inventory numbers? By zip?
I would like to see why a few are claiming drastic reductions inventory.
Did someone actually state that now is a good time to buy because rates are poised to rise?
I would normally agree to a certain extent - but taken in perspective - seeing that inventory is still high, volume still has a ways to go, lending standards are now back to historical levels, and the huge question as to what will happen with Alt-A and prime adjustable resets - you guys are claiming to be the best predictors of the future out of anyone here.
Man - logic is just seemingly lost to quite a few people on here.
Ask yourself the question…….would you lend the money from your savings account to someone in orange county to purchase a home?
I would only lend my money if they had at least a 40% down payment and 30% DTI and 12 months of savings. Otherwise, Orange county real estate is too risky.
…….. no-vas……
……… this blog is great for realtor and specuvestor fueled lulz…….
……… my favorite are the conversations the realtors try to have with HWOOD……
……… i mean are they serious?……… they try to converse with HWOOD?………
those are some of the best lulz……….
…………. nanowest….. i’d be more likely to invest in a repo company…… than invest in a freshly made sh!t sandwhich of mortgage backed securities from the OC…….
Wow — prices closing in on 30% down. I wonder if we can officially now say that the recession isn’t in our minds, but actually in our wallets as well?
As someone who took it in the shorts in home value, it’s nice to see that it’s happening all over.
“Your elitism shines through again. It is the World Olympics! Not the Pan Am games or the Superbowl.”
Stuff it, 0 for 600 isn’t going to cut it! Yes, they added plenty, but they weren’t there at first.
Ok, is that “Jake” Jake?
provider……….. the smog masked americans arrived late…….. cut them some slack……… they were buying tons of junk with credit cards……… they will do a photo shoot for homers like you later……
“Ninks”, I like it. Hey, that reminds me, where’s Bubble?
Bill, Putin got Medeved elected Prez and then Medeved made him Premier. Kinda like what Hilary was going to do with Bill
Let me get this straight - it is a fact that 7-years ago if you did not have a FICO score above 700 and a DTI of less than 35% you could not get a loan for a home - if you believe that, than yes there is a Santa Claus!!!
Jake you are telling us we cannot time the market yet you are telling us if we don’t buy now we will be missing out. Aren’t you timing the market with that statement?
I never tell anyone to buy or not to buy. I just give my personal opinion on where I think home prices are going and that is down. I am no expert and never claimed to be one but from what I see if people bought last year they would have been up a creek. Even if we hit bottom do you really think it is going to sky rocket so high that people won’t be able to buy? No it will flatten out.
NBI is right about the fico but even if you do not miss payments if your available credit is below 50% your fico will be effected. I saw many people with maxed out cards with not one single late payment with fico’s in low 600’s and high 500’s. They didn’t manage their debt properly. This is the issue that shapes this whole credit crunch. Back full circle to……….
People need to live with in thier means!
Even a clown like me knows that!
“The world belongs to the discontented.” – Oscar Wilde
i think we have a new “jake” in here!
Jake you are clearly adding to the negativity here………
I love Amercia and for you to say we don’t like America because we think the housing market is still going down is just unamercian. We have a right to our opinions. Not just Mulli, Provider, Dave, you (Jake) and everyone here that posts. Please don’t wave the flag at me or anyone just becuase we don’t agree with you that is not what this Country is base on. I respect everyones opinions but a may not agree with them. what kind of blog would this be if everyone agreed?
Boring……………
This was a service message from Clowns of America…………
PS thanks provider I really like the clown thing.
:)
I eat babies too!
jake,
i agree with you on one point. this is a great country(you didnt say that, but you impied it)
however, it has some major structural flaws that have need to be addressed for some time, and continue to be neglected.
first, the national debt is completely out of control. 9.5T and the ceiling was just raised to 10.4T. Did you know we spend 370B per year in interest alone?
Though we have some key domestic manufacturing industries, 70% of our economy is now consumer driven. That means we are just moving money around and not really producing anything of lasting value.
Lastly, to understand why the bears are so negative, you have to understand the concept of fractional reserve banking, debt based money, monetary inflation and how it affects prices.
What the bears, rightfully, are noticing is that we have been fueling the economy for the last 30 years on the expansion of easier and easier credit(money supply). This has produced prosperous effects in the economy. however, overtime what has occured is consumers have reach a ceiling on how much debt they could continue to accumulate and banks have reached a point where they recognise it too. This might not be so bad except that personal savings rates have plummeted to near zero. So going forward there is little ability to continue the debt driven prosperity both on the part of the consumers willingness and ability and the banks. Furthermore, even if the consumer were able to take on more credit, the banking system has tapped itself out and will have to greatly reduce the amounts of credit it is able to extend(this is deflationary). These two forces occuring simultaniously bode very poorly for the economy. Whats going to need to happen is consumers are going to have to repair their balance sheets(pay off debt) and banks are going to have to recapitalize. The problem is the damage is not done yet so the recapitalization can not really begin.
Couple all that with the ballonning federal debt and deficit, decreased tax revenue all all levels of govt(muni, state, fed) and you have a recipe for major problems for some time to come.
I just read John Eds wards had an affair. Clearly all these deemocrat bears are all alike and cannot be trusted. That is why MsCain is so great he would not even look at another woman. He is able to see the world thru the true “prism” of his war experience. He is not afraid to shed a little blood like sissy like lOlbama. And what right does lOlbama have to date Patris Hiltson and Bridtney speers just because they are all celebs. That is why we need clear moral leadership and a truth teller like John MsCain. Why John MsCain just has to mention drilling and he got the price of oil to drop. As soon as he says he is going to buy a house in OC the prices are gonna shoot up. This is no place for the bears to be politicing cause it is off topic but I just had to set the record straight. Given Barsack lOlbamas celeb status I don’t know what he might do, but I know for sure it will get this country in a lot of trouble.
If we could just go back to the days when guys like dReasgan knew how to keep guys like lOlbama in their right place. What is the world coming to when guys like lOlbama are dating woman like sParis and Bristney right under our noses. We need to do something about our noses if you know what I mean. Anyways it is good that lOlBama has not taken away the freedom for us to speak on these blogs in case we feel we must, although it should be rigidly controlled so that wrong things don’t get said as they have in the past.
I just read John Eds wards had an affair. Clearly all these deemocrat bears are all alike and cannot be trusted. That is why MsCain is so great he would not even look at another woman. He is able to see the world thru the true “prism” of his war experience. He is not afraid to shed a little blood like sissy like lOlbama. And what right does lOlbama have to date Patris Hiltson and Bridtney speers just because they are all celebs. That is why we need clear moral leadership and a truth teller like John MsCain. Why John MsCain just has to mention drilling and he got the price of oil to drop. As soon as he says he is going to buy a house in OC the prices are gonna shoot up. This is no place for the bears to be politicing cause it is off topic but I just had to set the record straight. Given Barsack lOlbamas celeb status I don’t know what he might do, but I know for sure it will get this country in a lot of trouble.
If we could just go back to the days when guys like dReasgan knew how to keep guys like lOlbama in their right place. What is the world coming to when guys like lOlbama are dating woman like sParlis and Bristney right under our noses. We need to do something about our noses if you know what I mean. Anyways it is good that lOlBama has not taken away the freedom for us to speak on these blogs in case we feel we must, although it should be rigidly controlled so that wrong things don’t get said as they have in the past.
If we could just go back to the days when guys like dRea sgan knew how to keep guys like lOlbama in their right place. What is the world coming to when guys like lOlbama are dateing woman like sParlis and Bristney right under our noses. We need to do something about our noses if you know what I mean. Anyways it is good that lOlBama has not taken away the freedom for us to speak on these blogs in case we feel we must, although it should be rigidly controlled so that wrong things don’t get said as they have in the past.
If we could just go back to the days when guys like dRea sgan knew how to keep guys like lOlbama in their right place. What is the world coming to when guys like lOlbama are dateing woman like sParlis and Bristney right under our noses.
We need to do something about our noses if you know what I mean. Anyways it is good that lOlBama has not taken away the freedom for us to speak on these bloogs in case we feel we must, although it should be rigidly controlled so that wrong things don’t get said as they have in the past.
We need to do something about our noses if you know what I mean. Anyways it is good that lOlBama has not taken away the freesdom for us to speak on these bloogs
We need to do something about our noses if you know what I mean. Anyways it is good that lOlBama has not taken away the freesdom for us to speak on these bloogs in case we feel we must, although it should be rigidly controlled so that wrong things don’t get said as they have in the past.
in case we feel we must, although it should be rigidly controlled so that wrong things don’t get said as they have in the past.
in case we feel we must, although it should be so that wrong things don’t get said as they have in the past.
I don’t know who this rants character is but I think he should crawl back in the hateful hole he came from with all his hateful bear buddies.
We can’t have all this libaral hate in America and expect that houses will rise 15% a year. We need not to work with reality as it is in hateful minds but to change it to conform to the way it should be.
I just am thankful that there are few sane people on this blog who think the way I do even if we are constantly slapped down by hateful bears.
Sorry seems like me and the auto sensor had a brawl.
Somebody take the needle of Jake, he skips.
jake take the medication your doctor prescribed
and the voices will stop
Jake…
lulz: “lulz” is a corruption of LOL. lulz is often used as a noun — e.g. “for the lulz” (”for laughs”).[21][22][23] Especially used to denote laughter at another’s expense.
jake take the meds and you will be fine.
I am just glad that we on this blog can escape the distorted media and thoughtfully discuss topics of the day based on facts without useless name calling. And I am sure rants fully agrees with me on this.
Are you guys feeling the lulz?
Jake, you used the word wrong. I gave you the definition above.
Above SAM says, and I do not see any arguments against - “What the bears, rightfully, are noticing is that we have been fueling the economy for the last 30 years on the expansion of easier and easier credit (money supply). This has produced prosperous effects in the economy. however, overtime what has occurred is consumers have reach a ceiling on how much debt they could continue to accumulate and banks have reached a point where they recognize it too.”
So that means that the RE volumes, as well as the prices, we have seen over the past years that we are trying to measure recovery against are completely wrong – so that means that the volumes and selling prices we are seeing today are most likely what we should be expecting for a healthy RE – so that means we are at or very near the bottom of the this bubble bust.
Very interesting – thanks SAM.
Jakes just having fun
I know my deduction from SAM’s comment is a little over the top – but I can not believe that the in one breath everyone can agree that because we are not seeing the numbers we have seen over the past years we are no where near the bottom, and in the next breath say the for the past years things were over inflated due to easy credit and money.
This level of open contradiction is just way too annoying.
They are down,
I am just messin with the people here like they do with me.
Check the New York times for the art of being a troll.
The absurdity of oil dropping because the economies of the world going into recession and then the stock market rising got me “lulz” mood.
I would say expect extreme volatility in markets because like on this blog it is darn hard to get real information.
We have trillions of dollars of bad debt floating around with continued build up of that debt. How this will be resolved “nicely” is beyond me.
Perhaps if we simply click our heels together and say “I think we can, I think we can” each of us will get another stimulus check in the mail and maybe a good job.
But maybe one of MsCain’s many contradictory approaches to world affairs will save us. Maybe he will put Gary Watts on board at HUD!
That was the probelm in the first place. Houses shouldn’t be rising 15% a year becoming unaffordable for working class Americans. So when you speak about America you are only speaking for the rich and priviledged……. What about the backbone of the nation that gets thier hands dirty everyday and has to rent and never retire becuase they can’t afford to buy a house?
When you generalize people like you are doing is when the negativity really gets thick! Is it negative to think housing needs to come down so people can afford them? American, working class people…………
AB - It is just like politics…nobody is ever wrong…it is just their point of view which you can either agree with or disagree with. Like Jake’s attempt at benign, sly sarcasm, slowly ramping up to the full explosion which could happen any moment now. So from Jake’s posts today we can decipher that he has a man-crush on the media, loving and believing every word they say…he might send flowers to Obama and Clinton…he enjoys the name-calling here, a character assessment point for all to see, and essentially loathes the RE market in general.
In other news, John Edwards has given us even more of a reason to shy away from the “party that truly cares about you.” Nothing says caring and love like cheating on your cancer stricken wife. What a gem.
They are down,
I am just messin with the people here like they do with me.
Check the New York times for the art of being a tro ll.
The absurdity of oil dropping because the economies of the world going into recession and then the stock market rising got me “lulz” mood.
I would say expect extreme volatility in markets because like on this blog it is darn hard to get real information.
We have trillions of dollars of bad debt floating around with continued build up of that debt. How this will be resolved “nicely” is beyond me.
Perhaps if we simply click our heels together and say “I think we can, I think we can” each of us will get another stimulus check in the mail and maybe a good job.
But maybe one of MsCain’s many contradictory approaches to world affairs will save us. Maybe he will put Gary Watts on board at HUD!
Long ago I decide to publish under many names to see how people would react. It was a pyscho experiment.
I wanted to see if I did a realtor type speil under the name Mulliganville if I could get those who had bear viewpoints aroused.
But I also wanted to see if I took on obvious other names like seeking Alpha if it would bother any of the bears who were debating me. It didn’t seem to matter that they knew I used multiple names.
So then I took on the name Jake to expose my self. (not the way some people do). I wanted to see if anyone would agree that I was using multiple names. Some seemed to noice like PUD but most probably just did’nt care. That was my little experiment and so now you know.
Sincerely,
Mulliganville and so many others you probably only guessed
lulz
i use the name rants sometimes.
And I thought I was the biggest clown here. :)
Mulliganville,
You need help get back on your meds!
sorry jakester…i am only one man…like jonathon moxson.
I miss the days when Lansner had to approve the postings.
No point tilting at Provider’s windmill. Provider will say inane things, like, “Still skewed. Nice volume though.” Nice volume compared to what? Sales in Antartica? You’ll notice that Provider will fail to give comparison data, or pretty much anything to back up the claims.
Best to just not even go there. Best to just ignore the postings; skip over them and go to the next.
As to Mullie’s drum beat about “Now’s a good time to buy…”, Lee in Irvine, everytime Mullie says that, would you add it to your chart please?
We can see how much Mullie is going to cost his buyers in real dollars, hard earned after-tax savings, that will evaporate.
And oh, by the way, RE is NOT a good investment if you buy at the top and sell at the bottom, or just hold. Nor is it a good investment if you bought at the top 20 years ago, because buying at the top barely keeps you up with inflation. That is not a wise use of $1MM, I guarantee you.
Boy, looking at the Olympic pics, you’d never know that half the contestants were actually female…
Um Marc, I have always said buy when you are ready…good lord man, read!
Marc, yeah it’s a wonder what a good shot of roids will do
Sales volume is below seasonal average. It has been slowly rising which is curiously something to watch and not take like a grain of salt like some do.
The median is worthless when 25% of the transactions are distressed properties. Even with the “skew” it is flat.
Marc - if you bought a SF house in Laguna a few blocks from the beach downtown in 1987 it would have cost you between $4-500k. If you put it on the market today at fire sale pricing just to move it you would get well over $1M. Considering that over that time you got to live in it, had the tax write-offs, and so on - I just do not see how this has any negatives - unless over that same time you got to live for free at the beach.
Over the same period if you bought more inland, lets say MV, you would have paid somewhere around $250K for a 2k+ sq. ft RE. Let’s say that you do the super fire sale pricing and let it go for $450k today - again not seeing how this has any negatives.
For all the landlords out there.
One of my long term (8 years!) renters moved out last month as he bought his first house. Anyway, I put an ad on craigslist.org and had a number of people inquire. One client said I was charging too much for rent in this complex and he knew of another unit that was the same floor plan and $450 a month cheeper. He even showed it to me on craigslist. I was rather stunned so I went and took a look for myself. I called the number and went to the unit where someone showed me the place and told me what the rent was. I used to know the owner of this unit and to my suspicion I did not recall this unit being sold.
This is where the story gets interesting.
I called the guy who used to own it and he sure was shocked to hear that someone was trying to rent out his unit that he was already renting.
After a little investigation I discovered the man that posed as the owner was affiliated with the renter. This was a pathetic con to try to get in to a place for a lower rent.
Beware of adds like this on craigslist. Anyone can post them and it is free.
You have to pay to live somewhere. Once I take the deductions my mortgage, taxes, etc. allow for, it is the equivalent of renting for $2500…with a pool, sunset views, no neighbors behind, etc. I do not begrudge renters. But I am with you AB—I prefer to call my own shots and not have a landlord telling me what I can and cannot do.
mulligan has a mortgage? what a loser
Provider: ” Nice volume though.”
So, then I can assume that if we sustain this current volume for the next year or so we will see pricing increase. I mean - you stated “its a nice volume.” Simple statement with no qualifiers, then you must rest on it.
Care to lay money on that?
Jake,
Why are you acting like a realtor?
Stop acting like a weirdo and act like a normal person again.
Rants is right once again.
Anyone holding a recent mortgage in this down market is a loser.
Sure Bill - said like a true renter.
Am I reading this right?
People are comparing the highs of other RE cycles with the last one?
Do any of you actually review the data in charts? You have any idea what you are talking about if you factor in rate of equity appreciation?
Hello?!?!? - my monthly mortgage is just over $1500 a month. I live in LN in a home whose comps are all over a mil. What does this mean? Absolutely nothing. I bought at the low end of the cycle and am sitting pretty on a low fixed rate loan (2004 was awesome baby!!) - a rate that will never be seen for a very long time.
Does that mean if someone buys now that they will be enjoying such equity growth in the next 20 years? HELL NO!!!!
Where the hell is the logic behind these assumptions? Come on guys!!! Throw the numbers, percentages, ratios, charts out there if you’re going to draw a comparo. Do you take the readers here to be idiots?
Look - I’m all for home pricing going up. I am all for reviewing the objective research of any and all. But I cannot stand to peruse the blog to find people throwing around their opinions as if they mean anything.
So, our RE investments have earned us X amount of money from 1997 to 2008. What does that mean to someone today, in that of itself? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Maybe except that much of the future appreciation was sucked up in the last cycle - which is usually the case with cycles.
Now draw correlations to those cycles to this one. Such as equity growth for this zip back then and compare to the recent cycle. Factor in the same for local wage growth, job growth, population growth, increase in housing units, the types of financing. I mean - come on - anything.
By the way, there are a few stocks that if you had invested $50K back in 1987 - you would be able to buy several multimillion properties today in cash and still retire. The point? It is not relevant to those looking to get in TODAY and deal with the short term future of this latest cycle. The long term future is even more unpredictable - but I agree, if you state that you are able to hang in there for 20 years from now you will be OK - only a complete moron would disagree. Yet, only a complete moron would buy now based on that advice as well.
So NBI - what do you thnk your house will be worth when this is all over?
Active Buyer,
You sound like you bought during the bubble.
Both of my properties in OC are paid for, so I don’t have to stress out and play games like you are desperately trying to do.
As you can tell, I have no problems telling the truth about the market.
Bill: “Anyone holding a recent mortgage in this down market is a loser.”
You have got to be kidding me.
I have four added to my portfolio - all cash flowing positive - just nowhere near CA.
Believe me - I’d take the pepsi challenge comparing portfolios and net worth against anyone that posted in this thread. Hell - I may even exclude my company on that computation.
Point being - the quality of the blog is directly proportional to the quality of the posts. I am the first to admit I have made some “crappy” posts - where the quality to the end reader was nil. Any reason why we can’t stick to the facts? Who the hell cares who bought recently? I only care about how many. And I wouldn’t get all a warm and fuzzy feeling about these latest numbers. We haven’t broke 3K homes sold in a single month in how long?
Active Buyer: “So NBI - what do you thnk your house will be worth when this is all over?”
Honestly, I have never even thought about it.
I only care about how much my investment properties are worth when I decide to sell them.
The primary is staying in the family, and the NYC properties as well. So value there is a mute point.
I think the major difference here is that my single largest investment is not my home and to most others, it is. I admit that my perspective may be unique.
Good NBI - I am also doing very well with RE. I just think all of this doom and gloom is crazy - there are just too many people trying to make a buck off of it and it is us who will end up paying for it.
Who is in trouble now?
1. Those who used their houses as ATMs.
2. Those who speculated and bought something that they could not afford.
3. Maybe those who bought in 2006-07 - they are going to taking the biggest hits.
Prices have been down about 15% in most areas (Irvine and south/west) since Jan 08, except of course the areas now known as the kings of REO - so if anyone has bought since Jan will be OK if they could really afford the RE and if they plan to stay in it.
As for my largest investment - my company’s value is computed yearly - at least as it stands on paper - that is what I am concerned most about (along with some shareholders). People make up the most of that value and that is my motivation for this downturn. I’m after the young professionals. Affordability has played a HUGE role in our failing to meet our hiring projections. I have people poised to retire soon. You can imagine the problem looming.
I’m starting to hate North Carolina. (Unless we end up moving there in order to remain competetive)
Try paying a staff a 25% premium just because of where your facility is. Hey - I’m open to ideas - how else can we cut those costs? We already tried the low interest loans for down payments - we have to allow that benefit to expire - shareholders won’t allow any extensions.
NBI - I completely understand - this past October I relocated back to the OC after 10-years in the Bay area - which makes the OC look like a bargin.
What I do not understand about the OC is the feeling of entitlment. A fresh out of school couple making $120k/year at the prices today could buy a very nice 1200 - 1400 sq ft SF house in MV - if they give up the $1k/ month for the two car loans and stop adding to their credit cards - this is the problem.
Active Buyer: “I just think all of this doom and gloom is crazy”
I agree - especially when the doom is made out to be Armageddon.
But would you not agree that the recent run-up in pricing was just as crazy?
I have had lenders tell me they could have gotten loans for their dogs if they tried hard enough. If they had a heartbeat, they could get a loan.
Many investors lost their shirts over this. Many feeling the pain are not even Americans - for them I feel plenty of remorse for. It’s quite sad when you stop and think about who got hurt in this. We’re talking about pension funds and other holdings that affect people’s lives.
Having a penchant to invest is not a crime - being lied to when doing it is. Buying a home that you obviously cannot afford does affect other people. Why is that point missed on so many?
OK, I digressed, sorry about that. Must be time to read a good book with my youngest. This one is about the construction of the Brooklyn Bridge – the lead engineer was so sick that he headed the project from a bedroom that had a window with a view of the construction site.
Active Buyer: “A fresh out of school couple making $120k/year at the prices today could buy a very nice 1200 - 1400 sq ft SF house in MV - if they give up the $1k/ month for the two car loans and stop adding to their credit cards - this is the problem”
I think you are referring to a need for a certain standard of living and not entitlement.
I don’t know about you, but when I spent 7 years in college working on a PhD, it was not to drive a Honda while struggling to pay a mortgage for the first ten years after college.
These young people are ambitious - the ambition is fueled by what they expect in return.
You see a yearning for entitlement - I see people struggling withe the recent run up in pricing that was unprecedented and life changing. I guess we can agree that we see this from different perspectives.
When in the last 40 years has the median income buy so little?
You do understand that although times have not changed much for us, those young folks have it WAY HARDER than we ever did.
I wasn’t around for the GD so I cannot comment for those older than I.
not buying it,
That’s great, but buying 4 properties in Nevada, Arizona or Texas isn’t quite the same thing.
You want to compare net worth?
I admire your engineering skills, but believe me you’re not the only one that is involved with a major corporation in here.
You’re small potatoes where I come from and I’m small potatoes where my neighbors come from.
Where do you live by the way?
Lastly - about entitlement - when I purchased my first home, the rental equivalent was dead nuts even (w/o the tax advantage).
Home values were not as high a multiple to the median income as they are today.
I was actually saving more in the long run due to the tax advantage.
These kids today have it WAY harder. Entitlement it is not - its fear of hard and risky proposition - and with kids in the mix - I would refrain from making them out to be people feeling they are entitled to anything.
I believe they are entitled to the same playing field we had when we purchased.
Anyone disagree? If so, then why do you feel so special?
After my PhD from UCI I got an entry level engineering job making $45k/year - 1994. The typical MV house at that time was almost 5x my salary. I am not seeing much difference from today, not 2-years ago at the peak - that is what I am saying.
Bill - I got friends that can buy and sell me quite easily. Hell - there’s a neighbor of ours that is much younger than I and appears to be much more wealthier than I. Of course he also has a home in Dubai.
I live in a humble home in LN - close to Salt Creek
Most people making enough money to realistically afford a home in a decent part of OC still don’t see the value at the current price or more would be buying.
Huge declines will always find a buyer but if you make enough to afford it now you’re smart enough to play it out while less another boom (which is not going to happen) the market is doing exactly what markets do after a boom, “finds the bottom”.
People know what they can afford and we couldn’t afford to buy our own house neither could our neighbors. So while we hate seeing it happen I think most of us realize what the problem is.
AB: Not sure why you took such a low paying job with a PhD back in ‘94. Engineers graduating with BS’s were getting such salaries - all depends on the field and the school though.
Where did you complete your undergrad work? What was the focus of your PhD?
I completed my undergrad work at RPI, PhD from Cornell. I did post grad work at two other schools - but enough for the backgrounds.
Out of the handful of PhD candidates I know that I graduated with back in ‘92, all were earning $60K+ starting out.
By ‘97, when that recession really let off the tech sector, salaries sky rocketed - which is why I started my company.
In 97, the multiple was more like 3.5 or less - at least for the engineers with graduate degrees. As for consulting engineers - well forget about it. They were buying two homes in two years and still driving nice cars.
If you think the multiple matches closely to today’s, then could you not simply compare wage increases and home value increases from then to now and they should be about the same? I highly doubt you would agree with that.
A $225K home bought in ‘94 would be worth how much today in MV? What is the average starting salary (or median - take your pick) for engineers with PhD’s? A $225K home in ‘94 would have been a fairly nice one as well with a good lot.
“then could you not simply compare wage increases and home value increases from then to now and they should be about the same”
meaning the percentage increase, not actual
not buying it,
I learned a long time ago not to take people for granted.
I live in Newport, not too far from you.
One of my close neighbors is making over 20 million a year.
There is always someone who will make more than you.
Active Buyer,
You bought close to the bottom of the market cycle in 1994 -1996 at the same time when I bought.
I can’t compare that time with the present.
Housing wasn’t coming off of a 100% run up back then and pricing was ultra affordable for the majority of people in OC.
When housing drops another 25% then we can talk.
I guess my point is that I think you are stating that buying a home in the mid 90’s in the OC is as affordable to new grads as it is today.
I must respectfully disagree with you wholeheartedly.
As for the other readers here: care to chime in on your opinion?
Damn - I gotta run - later
Bill - that is why I said “against anyone that posted in this thread”
I know there are people out there in the world that make WAYYYYY more than me - even on my block.
I was simply referring to the posters on THIS THREAD - which is about maybe 30 to 40 unique individuals. Much better odds.
Bill: lastly - I guess you would then agree that quite a few multi-millionaires have purhcased recently - and given relatively low rates - some might even have used loans. Who knows. But, I would refrain from such a blanket statement calling them all losers.
Company paid for a relo from a post doc in Europe - degree in Physics. $45k did not last for long. I did not buy untill 99 - had to save the down payment.
There are a few new grads and a couple MBA interns and to hear them talk about what is due to them becasue they have worked hard to get through school is just over the top. I guess we agree to disagree
Nice to see such civility here.
…………….oh no, did I speak too soon?
This is one reason I dont see a bottom anytime soon. These owners have just dropped there price again. They bought in 2005 for 475K. Put it on the market in Nov. of 07 for 440. Now the price is around 325K.
Thats 150K off of the purchase price in 2005 or 26%…my guess is the peak was probably around 550K in early 2007. So it is probably off around 40% from its peak. At 228 a sq. ft. it isnt a bad deal. I lived fairly close to here and it isnt a bad neighborhood with the park steps away and most all the shopping you need within 2 miles.
The bottom wont be behind us until prices start to rise in all neighborhhoods.
Wow! I am surprised the fellow bears here have been diverted by the bulls tactics and Jake’s snark. Come on guys, get it together. Bill and NBI… please, we both know you have your heads in the right place, so no need to whip it out on the table to see who is bigger.
Now… I can’t believe no one picked up on active buyer being sighburrdud. Seriously, he thinks having a RE license is like getting a PhD. A PhD wouldn’t make grammar mistakes worse than mine, and not know how to use spell check. For gawd sakes, he thinks Steve Thomas has a degree in “quantum” economics, when he meant “quantitative” economics. You can change the name, but you can’t change the personality. The references are the same, and the ignorance is clearly the same.
Here is a classic from sighburrdud…
# Sighburrdood Says:
May 12th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Nice try Bill, but here are the REAL foreclosures numbers, compliments of Matthew Padilla, with the latest figures as of 4/22:
January = 802
February = 732
March = 698
But wait! That can’t be - Bill says the numbers are going UP, not down. Could Bill possibly be wrong? WHOA!
The fact is, Mr. Bill, lenders are working with more & more borrowers to AVOID foreclosure. In addition, the new higher loan limits allow borrowers to refinance up to 120% of today’s value, to new lower rates & payments. In MORE addition, as Thoughtful has stated, the new lower interest rates set by Bernanke have made many of the resets practically negligeable.
I could go on, but perhaps you can see the handwriting on the wall. THE WORST IS OVER, for foreclosures.
Notice the misspellings? Notice how gawd awfully wrong he was? Notice how he has a crush on the thoughtless provider of ROC? What a freakin dolt! Foreclosures are nearly double what they were in March. No wonder he changed his name, he didn’t want anyone to see how wrong he was. I guess the name change thing is and will be a recurring them for the bulls. They think it will hide their ignorance, but it only shows their complete distortion of reality when not only can’t they admit they are wrong, but they are ashamed to even use the same name. Grow a pair will you? Pathetic! I will keep posting here under the same handle as I have two years ago, and when I am wrong I will admit it.
Guys, it’s interesting to hear the fibs, i’ve been reading through the posts and especially this last one graphx got me thinking. I don’t know anybody here but after reading graphx theory of how active buyer is someone else i went back and read his/her post. What a Liar!! If you’re going to lie at least keep track of your timelines Bud! You’ve lost any credibility on here.
# Active Buyer Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
Company paid for a relo from a post doc in Europe - degree in Physics. $45k did not last for long. I did not buy untill 99 - had to save the down payment.
There are a few new grads and a couple MBA interns and to hear them talk about what is due to them becasue they have worked hard to get through school is just over the top. I guess we agree to disagree
# Active Buyer Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
NBI - I completely understand - this past October I relocated back to the OC after 10-years in the Bay area - which makes the OC look like a bargin.
What I do not understand about the OC is the feeling of entitlment. A fresh out of school couple making $120k/year at the prices today could buy a very nice 1200 - 1400 sq ft SF house in MV - if they give up the $1k/ month for the two car loans and stop adding to their credit cards - this is the problem.
INTERESTING, YOU BOUGHT A HOME IN 1999 IN MV BUT THEN RELOCATED TO THE BAY AREA AND IN BETWEEN THAT TIME YOU ALSO WORKED IN EUROPE?? DID YOU HAVE A BODY DOUBLE?
Good catch Graphx, look at these post, obviously some discrepancies in the timeline here. How can you be in 3 places at the same time? And bought a home 9 years ago but lived in the bay area.
NBI - I completely understand - this past October I relocated back to the OC after 10-years in the Bay area - which makes the OC look like a bargin.
Company paid for a relo from a post doc in Europe - degree in Physics. $45k did not last for long. I did not buy untill 99 - had to save the down payment.
There are a few new grads and a couple MBA interns and to hear them talk about what is due to them becasue they have worked hard to get through school is just over the top. I guess we agree to disagree
I do not know what happened to Sigh, Thoughtful, Scott A and I am sure there are others.
Contrary to what Jake and others choose to believe, this is the one and only posting name for Mully.
Bill, I have to say, the blanket loser statement is just really an uneducated thing to say. You are a successful member of society…why judge the masses when you know absolutely nothing about their circumstances?
Every time you point the finger…there are three pointing right back at you. Try to rise above this non-sense. From what I hear, you are a multi-millionaire (at least that is what you are portraying here). Why the hostility towards another’s decision?
Graphrix
Right you are.
My apologies to you, not buying it and anyone else who needs one.
If I can ask, what information do you have on Augusts’ pre-foreclosure data?
I know it’s still early in the game, but there was a tremendous OC spike recently.
I’m not sure if the banks are aligning their books to better position themselves with regards to the housing bill or if there was some other event tied to the spike.
Any information would be greatly appreciated.
……… i actually pitty active buyer……… clearly a realtor / specuvestor who is in debt up to their eye balls………. providing a barrage of lulz at their own expense……..
NBI
I am that person you described with a little twist. I finished my BA in 1999 and saw what I could make (marketing major) straight out of college and decided to do loans because all my friends were making a 100k plus with a high school diploma. I put my MBA on hold to make some money for a year or two to buy a house and got derailed by the huge increase in price. Got stuck in he industry because in 2003 I had a family. I am now getting back to my MBA but working full time it will take a while. Straight out of school the prices are not affordable.
Anyway, my point is I don’t feel in-titled to anything but am eager to see prices come down to where I can get back on track with the home purchase and school. I am finally debt free except for the vehicles but until I finish school I don’t see my 120k household income increasing more than 5% a year. We drive middle of the road cars and have 2 kids, but I have the drive to do what it takes to be more successfulul. With home prices going down I see that I can get back on track and resume where I left off. Just need a 3 bd 1800 sq ft to be around $3500 with tax and HOA. So $360k is my target. 15% drop will just about do it. When I graduate and find a job where I don’t max out at 70k I can think about an upgrade.
Excluding my poor decision to not finish school, this housing boom has derailed a lot of people who wanted to purchase and worked hard and sacrificed but still couldn’t buy. Now they are getting their chance but for some they need to see a little more drop. I can only speak for my self but I would like to think my hard work and drive would be rewarded.
Clown school is expensive!
Y’all could just bite me. Volume has been steadily growing this entire year. We’re almost at 3k with the historical average, what, 4k? I understand why you are worried. Everyone knows Steve Thomas has a reliable model now.
The variable is the credit markets. We are in uncharted territory. The lenders just do not know what to do at this point. I suspect with the cost of foreclosure, you will see more lenders accept deeds in lieu of foreclosure. If they are going to get the home back anyhow, why spend $25-30K per home? It makes no sense. It helps the homeowner save aspects of their credit report, which is just a debt report, and allows the lender to get the home on the market sooner rather than later. Then again, the lenders were not making sense from 2004-2006.
Provider is right, volume is increasing, with very strict lending standards mind you, yet it is still increasing. We are not at the norms of history…yet. But we are making strides. This is a good thing, yes? Or, would you all prefer zero housing transactions for our county? How do you think that would effect our little economy here? I am just curious. I see many of you chastise those who have made the decision to buy at today’s prices. I suppose there is the faction that thinks the $$$ required to buy an Armani suit is not worth it. Maybe those Ferragamos are not worth it either. Except they last for years and years…just resole them at the appropriate time. Point being, value is a perception. And perception is reality for us all. There is the buyer for Payless, K Cole, and the way to the upper crust of fashion designers. Why is it so hard to try to respect another’s decision or POV?
You bears here are getting more and more testy and gloomier by the day. Is life really that bad here for you all?
Bill,
Last month we were nearly at 75% (a hypothesis) of normal volumetric average over the last twenty years or so. That is more than a few people buying homes today, as you put it. I see people taking advantage of the temporary conforming limit of $729K. I also see people wanting to lock in rates before they increase, as predicted by the dire media.
Volume is increasing due to huge discounts, every house (total 8) that has sold in my little area of MV sold for 22%-27% off, and the asking prices for the others are about the same and less than half are defaults. My family and friends in Lake Forest and RSM are getting hammered even more, you can find homes in LF that were selling for over 600k now selling for 375K and less.
Sales are picking up but at a huge price (declines) which will continue until all the buyers are in. It’s not a function of time but of buyers, price, the economy and psychology.
About the new grads:
is it a bad thing to want the same level of affordability as we had when we bought?
Is it a bad thing to want the same home value as we had in 2006?
Where’s the logic in such emotions? All are perfectly reasonable - just a matter of looking at this from a perspective other than your own.
I don’t see this feeling of entitlement that many speak of. Now if they are asking for a level of affordability that was never seen before in this area - well then, that’s something else. But back in the 90’s, recent grads in the tech sector could save/invest for two years and then easily buy a condo. Wait another three years with the appreciation we saw, take out some equity and use that to purchase a home. Rental equivalents were well in line so renting the condo was a done deal. Almost any grad with the right credentials could have done that.
Grads in the 90’s had the OPPORTUNITY OF A LIFETIME - probably never to be seen again.
Grads today could only wish for such opportunity. I will not lie, I am positive you could find such an opportunity, but they are so far and few between - even with given inventory - that the competition on those properties basically means they will go to some RE agent or someone closely affiliated with one.
Does anyone disagree that OC home prices tripled since the mid 90’s and the starting wages for these grads barely even came close to doubling over that same time period. The buying landscape today just became a high risk, high debt playing game. Add kids into the mix and you have more than enough reasons to wait as long as possible for the best price. Lord knows that prices are not going to immediately turn around and start sky-rocketing again. Those that claim that - well we will know within 2 years (since we are talking short term if you think prices will quickly turn around) and I’m willing to take someone’s money on that bet.
Time to go hit Whiting Ranch - the Luge is calling my name. -Later…
Oops, my bad, the 10 number came from the “Old” Housingtracker.net site and was for all Orange County. That data is not remotely relevent and conflicts with their “New” data by some 8,000 homes.
Maybe you missed this tidbit:
“You are looking at the OLD HousingTracker website. Go here to view the new site with better data.”
They added some pixie dust between the “Old” method and the “New” method, but are unwilling to share it.
Bill - I don’t have much data for August yet, but the spike you are seeing is definitely happening. Hey… good thing for the bulls though, seeing as how 40% of the sales are REOs, then the more foreclosures will mean more discounted homes for the financially savy like sighburrdud to pick up, and higher sales volume. Anything to keep them happy and keeping them from getting Johnson’s razorblades.
Mulli: sometimes I find myself sidestepping a few posts here. for instance, you state ” Or, would you all prefer zero housing transactions for our county?”
I think either you or I are missing the points of the other posters.
My take is that those posters are not wishing for low volume, but instead are discrediting a claim of bottom as being a premature claim based on people’s opinions of the recent volume increase. Some think its enough to believe to call bottom - many still do not.
As we can predict, most that do use the rcenet numbers to call bottom really want this downcycle to end and to see their home values rise again quickly. Or they have some other motive that is directly correlated to a bottom being hit.
And those that do not want home values to continue to decline.
Since there are varying motives - the only objective thing to do is to remove the motive and just look at the facts at hand. You are correct, given current lending standards, the recent increases in volume look promising - but until they are sustaining, how can we objectively call bottom? If someone had to lay their future down on that call - (like a recent buyer stretching themselves financially to make ends meet with the payment) - I would think they would need more evidence than that. As a homeowner, I can see one easily calling that as being enough evidence. Not all the variables are pointing to bottom however - hell, most are not. Job market, future of interest rates, future rate resets, the limited leveraging of the new conforming jumbo limits, low local wage growth, reduction in the local population of college educated residents, reduction in school enrollments, job growth projections for local companies, the number of housing units that are in the pipeline waiting to be uncorked, etc. - anyone that is putting skin in the game that I know of is not calling bottom.
But that is not to say you can go out and get a great deal right now, live in it for 20 years and look back on this whole debacle and simply laugh about it.
Ride’s leaving - later.
Forgot to mention foreclosure numbers are not looking positive - not devastating - but definitely not good.
Mulliganville Says:
“Last month we were nearly at 75% (a hypothesis) of normal volumetric average over the last twenty years……..”
__
“VOLUMETRIC AVERAGE”?
As relates to number comparison?
You are such a blowhard, Mulli. You hear some term and because you don’t understand it you’re impressed. Then you throw it out thinking since it sounded good to you it’ll make you look smart. You use it here — incorrectly or out of context — showing your lack of education.
This is you at your best — since your claim that real estate is a commodity.
More and more I wonder who you really are. You post as much or more than the original t roll and your attempts at appearing knowledgeable in areas you aren’t, are strangely similar.
Provider, provider, provider . . .. LOL, . . . .
Are you stuck in an office and it’s 2006? If not, based on what you say, you have to be completely delusional and do not understand the dynamics of macroeconomics and what is going on in OC.
It’s no surprise there are RE people who are in denial. They had an easy ride for years as order takers and continue to ‘believe’ . They are still hooked on the ride and can’t let go.
But, easy street never lasts . . .thankfully, today, the money tree is dead, will never return as it was, and the enablers will be kept in check. Deflation has begun and it’s time for the pretend OC to fold up it’s tent and join the real world.
Bill, everyone knows inventory did not increase. It has been proven. You and Housingtracker are dead wrong. And the 150 reduction in one week was correct, even by your erroneous Housingtracker standards. Please provide one, just one, other source that confirms this garbage. It won’t happen. Poor, gullible Bill.
pdu: every definition in the world does not need to pertain to your scientific based foundation of worthiness.
vol·u·met·ric Audio Help /ˌvɒlyəˈmɛtrɪk/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[vol-yuh-me-trik] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–adjective
of or pertaining to measurement by volume.
That was tough…we will read it again: “of or pertaining to measurement by volume.” It does not specify liquids or gas or any other substance. It is broad. Unlike your thinking.
Again, Mulligan, it’s not my job to educate you.
Amazing how you have so little knowledge that you fail to understand the concept of a word such as “volume”.
Even more amazing that you fail to grasp that the very definition you post to “prove” your point is - of all things - clearly referring to AUDIO VOLUME, you clown.
Not to attempt to open your mind, but just to help anyone wondering if you have any idea what you’re talking about:
—
Definitions of volume on the Web:
* the amount of 3-dimensional space occupied by an object; “the gas expanded to twice its original volume”
* bulk: the property of something that is great in magnitude; “it is cheaper to buy it in bulk”; “he received a mass of correspondence”; “the volume of exports”
* book: physical objects consisting of a number of pages bound together; “he used a large book as a doorstop”
* a publication that is one of a set of several similar publications; “the third volume was missing”; “he asked for the 1989 volume of the Annual Review”
* a relative amount; “mix one volume of the solution with ten volumes of water”
* the magnitude of sound (usually in a specified direction); “the kids played their music at full volume”
wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn
—
Maybe you’re more comfortable with Merriam Webster:
1 a: a series of printed sheets bound typically in book form : book b: a series of issues of a periodical c: album 1c2: scroll 1a3: the amount of space occupied by a three-dimensional object as measured in cubic units (as quarts or liters) : cubic capacity — see metric system table, weight table4 a (1): amount; also : bulk, mass (2): a considerable quantity b: the amount of a substance occupying a particular volume c: mass or the representation of mass in art or architecture5: the degree of loudness or the intensity of a sound; also : loudness
……. LOL……. Alfster….. this is what they have on page 6 these days ?
Well ‘if you don’t like that there’s always Page 3 of the Sun. And if you read the article the story was first reported in the Financial Times last week, I mean if you’re looking for credibility.
……….. Alfala………. what i’m most amazed about is that they did not tie AROD and Maddonna into the foreign investment portfolio of Mission Viejo 3 bed / 2.5 bath tract homes………
Yes pdu…again, if you would be open minded enough to understand MULTIPLE DEFINITIONS for a word are applicable, and stop trying to appear superior each and every time you post here, you would learn that in one of the definitions that YOU posted states:
—a considerable quantity—
Since Alfa already pointed out the audio help button, all that is left is an apology from you for assuming I have no idea what I am talking about (is volumetric that sophisticated of a word, really?), when clearly in this instance, I do.
Additionally, I will not “pile on” with Alfa with respect to the audio help key, which is something you are prone to do. I can understand how, in your zest to prove yourself correct against the likes of me, you missed that little nugget of information.
……… thanks, that is much less outlandish……..
……….. for a minute i thought some smart foreign investors….. were going to set up a CarMax business model on OC tract homes……. and try to sell them to the US middle class at 8 X income………
The things bears argue about! Always chastizing others…..and always wrong.
Alfa, no reason for me to gloat. In that debate with pdu, the other aspect of note should be the “paradigm shift” required for one’s thinking with respect to real estate. pdu’s personality appears to be one that will not afford flexibility with respect to how he sees something. The funny thing is in his zest to “get me,” he kinda got himself.
………. alfala, do you really need to justify for your specuvestor mistakes?……….
…….. i mean, housing as a commodity, are you for real?……..
……. a few chartacteristics of a commodity:
1. liquid
2. efficient market
3. no differentiation
……… you think housing has those qualities?………. the housing market is hugely illiquid…….. the cost to do business / transact is high…….. and there is a ton of differentiation…………. housing is about as far removed from being a commodity as you can get……..
……….. an element of the bubble was that housing was treated as a commodity……… that was a fatal mistake by you, mulli, and provider……
……… if you need to justify why specuvesting was a smart move……….. hey……. i’ll let you have housing as a commodity……….
………… if you really want to make an investment based on the future of american incomes……… there are plenty of alternatives that cost less……….. but housing is just that……….. an investment in the future incomes of americans……..
“paradigm shift” mav…it requires one to think about it differently.
………… no question……. it requires a sip of kool aid……. an informercial……….. and a specuvesting bible…….
mav, the sad part about all of this is mav is the article that Alfa posted is from investors.com. But, in your mind, RE cannot be a commodity. That industry is seeing it…but the expert bears in OC, blind as bats.
Flexibility is the word of the day Mulligan. I appears to me we are headed into unchartered territory here and the thing the bears can’t figure out is that it’s time to keep your head down and your eyes open. Like you say there’s a shift coming and if you can’t bend with it you’ll windup breaking.
Wow, thats a pretty bleak assesment. Well I guess before it gets too bad I’ll take the grand kids to the Balboa Funzone for one last go on the bungie jumper and a frozen banana.
I like Dad’s with the cinnamon crumble on the chocolate coating…aw, hell, throw a banana in there too!
Sale History
07/07/2008: $182,000 *
12/19/2005: $415,000
09/02/2003: $267,000
05/31/1995: $99,000
Show all sale history See less sale history
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Transaction Not Included in Zestimate This transaction was not used in computing the Zestimate for this house due to anomalies we detected with this transaction. These anomalies can include unusual document or transaction types, sales between possibly related parties, unusually high or low transaction prices, or other data irregularities that might indicate the transaction is not a full-value, arms-length transaction. * Transaction not included in Zestimate.
This is from a property in Laguna Niguel. The last transaction must have been a bank. MLS is S542414 currently for sale for 220. If you look at the pictures it looks like the projects and they charge over 200 for dues.
We ain’t seen nothing yet.
All these examples people post are old news. There’s a floor on that fleabag unit and we’re close to it. I fail to see the evidence of “We ain’t seen nothing yet”. What a tired-ass, non-sensical, overly-used collection of drivel.
Provider,
You just can’t stop talking out of your prison wallet, can you?
Why does everyone have to constantly prove to you what’s really going on with the real estate market?
You’re a laid off realtor, who should have ample time to research this massive downfall on your own.
Too bad the Olympics don’t have a medal for most consecutive lies told.
You’d probably break some records just in the time trials.
Billo, I don’t need your permission for anything. Documenting price drops that are ancient history tells us nothing about the present or the future. Thanks for your concern. Now mind your own business.
“U.S. house prices will fall by as much as 20 percent nationally and the current mortgage finance crisis is about half-way through, the chief of major mortgage financier Freddie Mac said Wednesday”
Let me spell this out in “gaagaa googoo” terms for you.
Freddie Mac says the nation is only half way done with this fallout and they’ve always been conservative with their downward estimates.
OC prices are down 27% at the halfway mark.
27%+27%=54% Total Drop.
Thanks Bill and Provider for helping me out. We could show examples all day and “they” will still deny it.
AGAIN - WE AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET!!
Isn’t there a song about that?
Question:
Do you guys ever wonder if they pay zillow and others not to post past sales? I noticed one on Ziprealty but found it on Redfin. Also, on realtor.com, it didn’t show a low ball recently sold but I found it on Ziprealty. It just seems strange how the data that should be there is not. And if it’s a low ball price, zestimate doesn’t include it. If I was stupid enough to buy right now, you damn straight I would use the low ball price, why shouldn’t you?
Mulli you genius,
Mulliganville Says:
“Last month we were nearly at 75% (a hypothesis) of normal volumetric average over the last twenty years……..”
—
My Mulliganometer (a volumetric measuring device used to quantify bushels of bull) went off at at full volume upon seeing the cavalier way you threw out this phrase of apparent nonsense.
Just show me where this term of yours is used relating to sales numbers?
Help me here. Instead of attacking me show me where what you said makes sense.
Just what is “normal volumetric average”?
Show me ANYWHERE that concept (volumetric) is used outside of measuring volume in the sense of mass, bulk, area, and maybe sound.
SHOW ME a definition of volumetric that would relate to number of sales.
volumetric Usage Examples
* glassware: Use of volumetric glassware for solvents other than water should not rely on the water calibration.
* flask: Volumetric flask Used to make up an accurate volume of a solution, for example, 250 cm 3.
* coefficient: From the resulting overall volumetric heat transfer coefficients the total volume curve for 2, 3 and 4-6 stream units.
* strain: The bulk modulus K ‘ relates the change in stress to the volumetric strain.
* efficiency: More airflow = More horsepower Volumetric efficiency of well over 100 % can be achieved.
* pump: Separate mix lubrication is provided by a variable delivery volumetric pump.
I’m willing to learn; I come to this blog to learn.
However when I see what appears to be BS I can’t let it pass as knowledge.
Mav,
We’re dealing with something beyond us when trying to reason with Mulli or Provider or Alfalfa…..if they aren’t one and the same — and I’m still wondering. They were absent when logic and understanding were being handed out.
It’s so elementary a concept that something can be traded in a manner similar to a commodity yet it doesn’t follow that doing so makes that something a commodity.
Basic logic;
All Commodities can be traded in bulk.
Some Homes can be traded in bulk.
Therefore, Commodities and Homes are the same …or even better, Therefore all Homes are Commodities?
Go figure, but don’t try to help them figure.
Does anyone know how much inventory we have in the “pocket” , “phantom”, and/or “shadow” category?
A commodity is anything for which there is demand, but which is supplied without qualitative differentiation across a market. In other words, copper is copper. Rice is rice. Stereos, on the other hand, have many levels of quality. And, the better a stereo is, the more it will cost. Whereas, the price of copper is universal, and fluctuates daily based on global supply and demand.
Demand went out the window some time ago.
A voice of reason. Thanks Melody.
As for the unseen inventory…..that’s the big unknown which so many chose to see from their own wishes.
My guess? The “pent-up supply” is enormous and probably will continue to grow as more and more loan resets approach and more and more “owners” realize all they own is an obligation to pay a large mortgage against a declining “commodity”:)
On a more serious note I worry that as the reality sinks in there just may be a capitulation on the part of potential wannabe-sellers on a much larger scale than any of us hoped for.
PDU & Melody it is a loosing battle try to reason with them. Simple definitions of “commodity” and “fully indexed rate” are lost.
Melody it is hard to track phantom inventory but I like to compare by zip code. If you look at Ziprealty’s inventory and type in the same zip code in Realtytrac you get kinda of an idea of much inventory is not on MLS. You have to take into consideration Realtytrac has some duplicate info but you get a general idea.
Obama and McCain will be in town next Saturday. They both agreed to the meeting here if, and only if, Rick Warren was the interviewer/mediator. We are very lucky to have Mr. Warren right here in our back yard.
Ok pdu…one more time.
When measuring the volume of homes sold this past July against previous years, it appears that we are at about 75% of historical averages.
vol·ume - amount; total: the volume of sales.
We were discussing the measured amount, or volume of sales in July. Volumetric is applicable. Stop being a scientist. Is this really that hard for you to comprehend?
And Melody, Investors Business Daily referred to housing as a commodity. “We” do not just make this stuff up. All you have here is a bunch of Type A personalities, or “reds” if you prefer “The Color Code.”
Hence, nothing will ever be accomplished in this forum.
com·mod·i·ty Pronunciation[kuh-mod-i-tee]
–noun, plural -ties.
1. an article of trade or commerce, esp. a product as distinguished from a service.
2. something of use, advantage, or value.
3. Stock Exchange. any unprocessed or partially processed good, as grain, fruits, and vegetables, or precious metals.
4. Obsolete. a quantity of goods.
I don’t where where demand is mentioned
Some need research lessons. If you google the first words in my statement on commodity, you would discover where I found the info. It’s from wikipedia. I apologize for not quoting that. I didn’t just make it up.
I consider a person who bought a house in the last several years as someone who has a ball and chain around their neck. You’re right, a commodity is a real substance (house) but it’s definitely not an asset. It’s a huge liability. Yes, there are exceptions to every rule, but on the whole, this would ring true.
Realtors will put a spin on this but that’s ok, it’s expected.
Samson Says:
Oh Mulli,
I started to think you had some sense and knew a little bit of what you were talking about….now Im not so sure.
—–
He/She had me fooled for awhile too.
“We ain’t seen nothing yet” - I must agree I can’t agree with this. We have seen some of the largest losses in decades.
However, I also do not think this carnage has come to an end. Too many open variables still, and foreclosures/NOD’s are just one of the major concerns.
Commoditization occurs as a goods or services market loses differentiation across its supply base, often by the diffusion of the intellectual capital necessary to acquire or produce it efficiently. As such, goods that formerly carried premium margins for market participants have become commodities, such as generic pharmaceuticals and silicon chips.
—
…..OR houses now :)
Mulligan,
Maybe you are right. Maybe all those you sold, or all those that bought a house were suckered into believing that the house they bought was different than the one in Santa Ana.
A house is a house. They are all the same. Just a damn commodity with no differentiation from one to the other.
Those little Pacific Hills commodity boxes are all the same — what’s the market today on one of those?
Again, Mulli, I’ll take a dozen of those houses at today’s market.
Send an invoice. Please send the keys and the addresses.
Any chance they can be kind of close to each other?
You guys got me convinced.
Hey Mulli, what’s your volumetic of sales this month, compared to your historical volumetric monthly averages?
not buying it:
You have a point - we have seen quite a bit already. Who would have predicted that you would have a line outside a bank with people trying to get their money out. Some lost whatever was not insured. Other banks being taken over. To see condos halfway built all over place. To see so many filing for bankruptcy, even with the new conditions (laws). The govt saw this coming. People charging gas just to get to work. Unemployment notices everyday you read the paper. DMV having a sickout. Anything related to gas going up. Salaries on the downside with everything (what seems) else going up. Mervyns, Bed & Bath, Bennigan’s and 273 mortgage companies failing. Health insurance rising at levels unseen before. The stock market yo-yoing beyond belief. Plunge Protection team anyone? Homeless on the rise and food banks are now serving middle class. Discounts for tickets for ball games and the toll roads at Costco. Major companies (Freddie, Fannie, Bear Stearns, Countrywide, GM, Ford, airlines) getting bailed out. People losing their healthcare during retirement just because. Stimulus packages.
Gosh, I could go on but it’s starting to piss me off.
But never mind, everything is peachy. Go buy something!
pdu…there was a time when you and I were pretty much getting along. The point of RE being being treated and thought of like a commodity is a shift in thinking. Your approach is always scientific. It has to fit in a tidy, little box, right? This paradigm shift will be outside the box. By the way, I accept your apology regarding volumetric average. And to answer your question, I did not sell any RE this July, or last July, or July 2006.
I think Melody is Marcia.
Every time I come on here, someone calls me someone else. I rarely contribute, but if you go back, it’s always been me. I like seeing my real name :)
Mulli, so when you state the sales stats, do you let your clients know how many of that figure went as sales going back to the bank?
Didn’t think so.
Melody, shocking as this may sound to you…people buying today understand the deal. There are no surprises…they are getting it from every side. The know values are down, may go down further, and better deals may be for the taking in the future. But, just like any purchase, we deal in the present. You can wait for that favorite shirt you saw to go on sale and possibly save some money. If you like it, chances are others like it as well. It may be there or it may not be. But others will be there. Same thing in RE. There will be other homes…always. They may be better or they may not be…you cannot know until the time comes.
Btw, I am working with three buyers right now….and ALL of them know what is happening. I have nothing to hide. We have unrealistic sellers who think their homes are worth more than they are. It is not rocket science. I do not need to show %’s of bank owned deals. January volume was 1200 deals…we are making progress and need to get through the inventory we have. In this market, with confined lending standards, I will take 2800 deals in the month of July.
Lastly, I believe you if you say you are not marcia. Your word is good enough for me.
Mullignaville - lending guidelines are not that stringent. I can get people with spotty credit and little money into houses all day long, if they can make the payment! $5000 per month mortgage payments are very hard to qualify for - thus the prices will continue to fall and fall and fall. Stated income loans are not going to make a comeback this year or next or the year after that. Pay option arms may never come back - the prices are going to fall to the point were people can qualify for the payments. Like I said, I can put someone into a 97% purchase with 550 credit scores. you think that is confined lending? Now, i cant put someone with no job and no income into a $700k loan even if they have 800 credit scores. Maybe these are the loans you are reffering too as “confined”. Those loans are not coming back bud.
No, I was referring to 80/10/10’s…I know they are scarce…if not extinct.
Thanks Mulli for your kind words.
Question: Do you share with your buyers the best deals available? Let them know when/if they are going up for auction? Tell them that the first time buyer down payment offer does have to be paid back? Tell them not to buy until they have sold their current house (if they have one)? Tell them to get an independent inspector and appraiser? Inform them on what the bank bought it back for? Let them be aware of the fine print in the loan itself (hidden fees)? There’s lot’s more questions, but you get my drift.
If you do these things, cudos to you.
Hey Jon, over 227 responses. Cudos to you too :)
I am not working with first time buyers…nor am I working with REO auctions. Many are finding that their good deal, just is not that good of a deal after all. Others are finding the bank will not accept the auction price. It is a pretty big mess. Like I said, I have nothing to hide…I am working with an investor now who want to offer $500,000 less than list. And the seller, has it listed for $160,000 more than they bought if for…..in 2006. Yeah right…my client said, “what is fair?” I said, well, it is a Laguna Beach property…investment property. Only about 8 of them on the market in the whole zip code. I do not think it will be had for $500,000 less than they paid…but I do think it will go for $300,000-350,000 less than they have it listed for. Their decision to make at this point.
I never saw the appeal for Laguna Beach… what is it? As I drive through I get this uptight feeling, unorganized, and dirtier than other beach cities. I never understood that one.
Well, I suppose it is the various coves of beaches which are pretty nice I must say. Usually one of the beach towns “grabs” you more than the others. Laguna is very artsy, and has a good bit of character. I like north Laguna much better than south. Oh, and fabulous people watching along main beach and the main promenades. I do not see the uptight aspects you see…that seems more prevalent in Newport. That being said, I love Corona Del Mar…probably my fave of the beach enclaves.
Mulli
Isn’t that a funny. When I go through Newport, I’m relaxed. People are super nice and the city is clean. I would love to live on the Island but the traffic would be the deterrent. Carona del Mar, is a definite and places around the Ritz. Now, Nellie Gail warms my heart, but if I had a choice, it would be to have an ocean view and/or breeze..
Oh I really like Monarch Beach around the Ritz…Dana Point basically. When I mentioned that about newport, that is the general consensus I was speaking of. Laguna, same thing…the general consensus is it is more relaxed. Personally, Laguna traffic is most hideous. MTV turned it into what it is today…kinda weird but true. I love the planned aspects of Newport and personally, I have not come across the stuffy’s! CDM fall between the two in my opinion.
# Mulliganville Says:
pdu…there was a time when you and I were pretty much getting along. The point of RE being being treated and thought of like a commodity is a shift in thinking……………….By the way, I accept your apology regarding volumetric average………………
——————–
Two things Mulligan,
First I made no apology regarding your using the term “historic volumetric average” in relation to number of sales….
You ignore that I asked you to show me ONE EXAMPLE of the term EVER being used by ANYONE in such a context.
You are being deceptive, again, to suggest that I agree with your BS.
SHOW ME or shut up.
Secondly, nowhere is there any change in the status of real estate from a product to a commodity. HOW could you remain so ignorant to be unable to grasp the concept of what a commodity is?
Investors are being offered groups of loans, backed by real estate. With a large enough discount, the individual properties and the specifics of the individual properties are not an issue. Hence, these investments are being sold in a manner consistent with the manner in which commodities are sold.
If you are unable to discern the difference between that type transaction and the sale of an individual house I can’t help you.
If you can’t understand that those type transactions don’t change the individual nature of homes into the condition of all homes being one and the same and all having a value that is the same regardless of which home is delivered, then here again I am unable to help you.
I’m not sure you are really as ignorant as you pretend, but I’m starting to wonder………
So where is rants?
# Mulliganville Says:
I do not see the uptight aspects you see…that seems more prevalent in Newport.
# Mulliganville Says:
When I mentioned that about newport, that is the general consensus I was speaking of. …. I love the planned aspects of Newport and personally, I have not come across the stuffy’s!
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Again Mulli, what you post is never clear —- slip sliding sideways out of a statement makes you such an endearing character.
(Oh no, that wasn’t my opinion, that was the general consensus…I’m never wrong, someone else said that)