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Tell us ‘O.C.’s hottest housing market’
August 7th, 2008, 10:01 am · 59 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner/O.C. Register columnist
The builder consultants at Real Estate Economics recent ranked the Huntington Beach/Seal Beach area as Orange County’s hottest housing market. (Read more about that HERE!)
We figured you had an opinion, too. So using the same 12 slices of O.C. that these consultants track, why don’t you pick from the dozen neighborhoods listed below what you think is O.C.’s best-performing housing market. (Note: These markets are listed in order of Real Estate Economics’ second quarter rankings.)
O.C.’s best bet …
For recent real estate news…
- Foreclosure refugees skipping apartments
- House payments a worry around the globe
- Sublet glut hits office rents
- Long commute? Good-bye O.C.
Check out July’s most sizzlin’ real estate stories!
August 7th, 2008 at 10:12 am
MV, RSM, and Ladera have sunk in price so much already in comparison to other safe/nice areas in OC, I think it sales will really start in pick up in these cities.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Oil prices are a bubble. Once that bubble pops south county will be sitting pretty.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:51 am
I still will take the costal cities over the inland cities. All the smog just crowds RSM & Foothill. I would think that cities like Laguna Niguel, Aliso Viejo will fair better. Closer to the beach which gives better air quality and temps tend to be cooler with the coastal breezes.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Lansner,
Do you actually get paid for this crap???
August 7th, 2008 at 11:05 am
hahaha!!!
August 7th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Hottest housing market in OC? Does that exist?
OC housing market is on gas and needs Oxygen.
May be the title should read ‘Which housing market in OC has a pulse?’
August 7th, 2008 at 11:45 am
I have some rentals in the Santa Ana/Costa Mesa area. A unit next to one of my units was sold within a week. The foreclosures in the complex are being sold very quickly.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Define hot as it applies to the OC Housing market….Average Temperatures? you can’t mean closings..
August 7th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
What is the point of this? If this is to measured by sales and pricing strength, isn’t that objectively measurable? Why would our opinions matter?
Or does “best performing” have another definition for purposes of this poll?
Or are we just supposed to pick the neighborhood we like best?
Really, how useful is this to anyone?
August 7th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Oh stop thinking !
August 7th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
I think Jon just needs to give us more fuel to argue. I say we get some for sale signs and have a cage fight and who ever is left standing is right.
My 2 cents is where ever the forclosures are the highest will be the hottest market for sales volume. Ladera and Talega are my choices becuase of the higher prices and higher forclosure rates.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
I wonder if the labor day supply drop will hit this year. If it does, listings will drop below 12,000.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Oh my, it’s funny to read some of nonsense that goes on in this venue. The PermaBulls, ranting like little girls, and we still have significant downside to go. How are they gonna act as prices drop another 30-40%?
I’ll tell folks, there are too many people in Orange County that are living way beyond their means. We’re just now starting to see the option arm/Alt-A debacle take place. This is gonna crush all those $600k to $1M priced homes.
Welcome back to the real world.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
lee in irvine, you’re right on, except that it will crush not just the $600k - $1M home market but at least up to $2.0M market. My forecast for the Coastal upper income market for Q4 and 2009 looks very u-g-l-y.
Orange County. Where Living Beyond Your Means is a LifeStyle. ™
August 7th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Lee,
You are probably right about this also.
Many in those $600K to 1$M homes couldn’t have bought had it not been for the bogus financing. The stated income bogus loans are gone and the resets are arriving. The new loan standards will remove many and the payment adjustments will remove many more.
Common sense says in today’s economy there are not enough qualified buyers to step in — even if there were they won’t step up to those prices because they won’t have to. They won’t have to because supply/demand will ratio will go to work bringing some sense to prices.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
yes, my Christmas card picture this year: the caption will read:
“we’ve decided to give the kids a REAL OC Christmas this year” with kids dressed in Prada from head to toe, opening bags from upper end stores from South Coast Plaza, me wearing stilettos and extensions serving them on a silver platter the finest h’orderves around the tree. While my husband sits in a nice chair reading a book called “how to make money with OC real estate while avoiding foreclosure”. I’ll also have a bunch of credit cards coming out of my apron pocket…..
It will be a classic
August 7th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Its 82 degrees in Irvine right now.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
CDM Mom,
Tell us more about those extensions:)
August 7th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Ha!
never- and never stilettos either. Nike’s are much more comfortable!
August 7th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
nvest80 … trust me, I understand that the 2m crowd is gonna get walloped too. It happens in stages, with the next being 600k to 1m.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
CDM Mom I’m with PDU can be on your mailing list…
As my wife slaps me…….. Ouch!
Your all right on about the financing and living beyond your means but it was not just in OC. I was in the loan trenches and did loans in 40 or so states. People every where lived off of the fake equity in thier homes. Yes it was more so prevelant here in the OC becuase they had higher inflated prices made it more easy for them to pull out much more money.
Mom in CDM and all the others here that are waiting to pick up thier diamond in the rough will know how to hold on it. Pay the note not he ego………..
We will rise up and…………….Ouch! Sorry my wife slap me again getting a little carrried away.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
TO CDM MOM
HEY WHEN UR HUBBYS FIGURING HOW TO MAKE MONEY IN HIS CHAIR ..COME ON OVER TO MY PLACE I ALREADY KNOW HOW!!
MAYBE I CAN PUT A LITTLE SPRINKLE IN YOUR CHEER……..LOLL
P.S. DO U ALWAYS WEAR NIKES……….
August 7th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
I hear not ALWAYS:)
August 7th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
PDU
DO U HAVE GOOD HEARING>………..
August 7th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
…………………. do you want the truth?……………..
…………..do you think we are in a debt crisis?…………
………… do you think it’s going to get worse?………….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBo2xQIWHiM
……………….what does this mean for you?……………
August 7th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Hottest Market: Illegal garage conversions
August 7th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
10,000 state “employees” laid off– many more
to follow- as the state tries to get out from under the
debt burden of having to support the countless
number of illegal immigrants that have inundated
the states welfare rolls and medical facilities…
http://totalbuzz.freedomblogging.com/2008/08/07/pink-slip-count/
August 7th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Yes rants, and it is morons like Gavin Newsom that keep illegal fellons in our country like Edwin Ramos by not cooperating with INS and homeland security. And Newsom wants to be our governor…God help us all. Maybe we can borrow Rick Perry to handle these types.
August 7th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
So funny!!
I had a friend the other day tell me she can’t afford to get her hair done, (as she’s waiting on her full time nanny and housekeeper). Huh?!
I have to wonder that when this all goes down (granted- IF it all goes down),, how many full time workers like the nannies, housekeepers, etc. will be laid off and add to the unemployment (actually it wouldn’t add a lot to the numbers as a lot of them are undocumented). I am pretty sure that a lot of people have “help” afforded to them by the million dollar uprise in their home value. What happens when that is gone?
I’m still hearing from people here that the prices are the lowest they will be. Might be true, but I doubt it. None of the homes here are selling. I’ve got 2 on my street for sale. I never see anyone looking at them. They say they might “rent” them, but they could never get what they are paying in mortgage, property taxes, association fees, etc. There is a house in a neighborhood that I would love to be in, 2.5 million. On Redfin, it has a rundown on the numbers (I think on the realtor’s website) on how much it would be. With 20% down- 459,000! it would be 11,000 a month mortgage. I might be a little wrong on those, but it’s close. That’s amazing- and ridiculous. Bought in 1999 for 1.3- wonder if it will ever go down to that price again????
August 7th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
CDM closing action for you MOM…
RES Closed Sale 431 Narcissus Corona Del Mar (CDM) Price $1,750,000*—sold 95% of list. on the market for 328 days.
Closed Sale 510.5 Marguerite Ave Corona Del Mar (CDM) Price $950,000*—
I will get others to you as well…gotta run.
August 7th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
For your reading enjoyment:
Housing Collapse Ahead?
Not According to the Data
By Charles W. Calomiris, Stanley D. Longhofer and William Miles
Monday, August 4, 2008; A11
Turmoil in the housing market has led to fears that home prices will drop precipitously, particularly if foreclosures force large numbers of homes onto the market in the coming year. Recently, these fears have driven financial stocks down and led to the government rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But the projected losses have been wildly exaggerated. Most Americans have not experienced any significant decline in the value of their homes — nor are they likely to.
Only four states — Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada — have had declines of more than 4 percent in home prices over the past year, according to the house price index of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Some worry that OFHEO’s index may be missing the full extent of the crisis because it doesn’t include very high-priced homes with “jumbo” mortgages or homes bought with subprime loans — the ones being hit hardest. While one could argue that the index would be more representative if it included these transactions, the properties it does include represent more than three-quarters of U.S. homes.
The OFHEO index provides broad coverage of large and small markets across the country, and each home is weighted equally. Furthermore, excluding subprime mortgages has an advantage — doing so makes the index a more representative measure of the homes owned by middle-class families. Fire-sale prices from distressed sales of subprime mortgages exaggerate the declines that patient sellers are likely to experience.
This spring, it was much reported that the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller housing price index recorded a 14.1 percent decline from March 2007 to March 2008, and there is every indication that the index’s June results will also be down significantly. But this is a poor measure of what is happening to the value of most homes. The Case-Shiller index includes no data from 13 states (representing 11 percent of the U.S. housing stock) and offers only partial coverage of 29 others (with 79 percent of U.S. housing). Homes in the areas omitted or incompletely covered appreciated at a slower pace during the housing boom, and their values have been more resilient over the past two years, so the data behind the index are biased toward the markets most susceptible to dramatic swings.
Also, the Case-Shiller index weights transactions by value. For example, it gives eight times as much weight to the sale of an $800,000 home as it does to a $100,000 home, meaning it is particularly sensitive to what is happening with high-priced homes in the largest, most expensive markets.
But even if price declines have been small so far, how can one gauge whether the increase in foreclosures will lead to accelerating decline? In our own research, we use quarterly historical (1981-2007) state-level data on the OFHEO price index, foreclosures, home sales, permits and employment to explore how foreclosure shocks affect future home prices.
We conclude that declines in house prices are highly likely to remain small. Our analysis reveals, unsurprisingly, that foreclosures and home prices have negative effects on each other over time, but this does not imply a vicious cycle of collapsing prices. Our models predict that as foreclosures continue to climb in many states, house prices will remain flat or decline in those states — but will not collapse.
One reason for this is that the effect of foreclosure shocks on house prices is small. Furthermore, other fundamental factors (such as employment growth and a slowing of the growth of the housing supply over the past year and a half) will cushion the impact of foreclosures.
We constructed several forecasting models. Even under an extreme worst-case scenario for foreclosures, our conclusion was that U.S. house prices just aren’t going to fall by very much in the next two years. In our worst-case scenario, the average cumulative decline is about 5 percent, and only 12 states experience declines greater than 6 percent by the end of 2009.
The fact that home prices will remain stable does not imply that the housing downturn has been trivial. Indeed, the price stickiness has been reflected in the lower sales volumes and declining housing starts that we have witnessed for over a year. These factors have already slowed GDP growth. Many developers and financial institutions have been badly hurt. And some homeowners who had the misfortune to buy in the hottest markets have experienced significant declines in value and will experience further declines.
But fears of a huge loss in home values for most homeowners — and especially for middle-income homeowners — across the United States, and fears of the devastating losses by financial institutions that would accompany them, are greatly overblown.
Charles W. Calomiris is Henry Kaufman professor of financial institutions at Columbia University and a visiting research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Stanley D. Longhofer directs the Center for Real Estate at Wichita State University’s business school. William Miles is an associate professor of economics and Barton fellow at Wichita State.
August 7th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Thanks Mulli!
Hopefully the people that bought these have a nice house for me to buy in about a year…..nice to see something is closing!
August 7th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Mom in CDM:
I’m with you. I am glad to hear (read) there are other down-to-earth women in south OC. I get much more satisfaction from saving money than spending it - any day.
August 7th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Thanks SoCal- I think CDM/NB get a bad rep. I know of more down to earth women here than a lot of other states. Some of the wealthiest (yes, actual money- not by house value) have been the kindest and most open that I have met. When we moved here a year ago, I was scared that I would be the only person cleaning their own house and buying clothes at old navy, but found out it’s not true. Just lots of parents that care about their kids the same way people in Santa Ana or Irvine, etc. do. The houses are still too expensive though!!
August 7th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Here are some more MOM:
RES Closed Sale 2710 Bungalow Pl Corona Del Mar (CDM) Price $1,250,000—on the market for 35 days including Escrow! Sold for 98% LP
Closed Sale 619 Poppy Ave Corona Del Mar (CDM) Price $1,610,000—sold 95% of list. on market for 40 days.
These two closed in July.
There is activity out there considering most lenders have turned to petrified wood. They are easing their constraints day by day…think of it as having been in a horrific car accident going through MacArthur and Bonita Canyon…you would tense up and wince every time you went through it for about a year or so…I know, but with a different intersection in another state.
August 7th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Hey everyone I just bought a house today!……………………..
Yeah my dog loves it, 16 sq ft……built in dog dishes……situated on a nice piece of land in the back yard…….
He was asking about a home equity line for granite, stainless steel and a plasma. I told him if it was 3 years ago he could have got a 25k line easily with just a paw print but times are changing……………
August 7th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
Stashing: At around $300/sqft I’m going to guess that doghouse cost near five grand. Boy that says a lot doesn’t it?
August 7th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
Correction: the poppy property was on market over a year…I am sure it was pulled and put back on.
August 7th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
But, the poppy property was also new construction…so it stands to reason the builder had it listed during construction…probably from sheetrock on…just a hunch.
August 7th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Hey SoCAl the guy at Petco said he has this great new 1.25% loan that is all the craze…………….
And……………..
The nieghbors dog saw the new house and I think he is adding an addition to his old dog house…………..
Funny how it sounds so rediculas when we are talking about dog houses BUT…………………………
You know the rest……………..
August 7th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
Gotta go to my clown job………..see ya
August 7th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Hopefully the neighbor’s dog won’t run into financial trouble and have to downsize to a bird house. Your dog will really be the envy of the block then.
August 7th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
OC has some of the best places to live in the nation and that’s not saying other people around the world wanting to live here too. We’ve got nice weather, beaches, different ethnic foods, high paying jobs and good entertainments. This place is happening.
August 7th, 2008 at 8:05 pm
“Hopefully the people that bought these have a nice house for me to buy in about a year…..nice to see something is closing!”
No class, I don’t care how much your husband makes.
August 7th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Provider
Try to start something as you’d like, but I’m not taking your bait. My comments are fine and do not lack of any class.
It would not be unfounded for the homes these people moved from would still be for sale in a year.
Lighten up!
August 7th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Sorry, I read it as you were hoping they go into foreclosure on these new loans. I thought that was the 1 year reference. Mea culpa.
August 7th, 2008 at 8:26 pm
Not a problem!
I’m just hoping that in a year, when my lease is up- I have many, many homes to choose from. Of course, if they don’t go down in price- I’ll be looking for another lease.
Have a good night, provider!
August 7th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
And you, Mom.
August 7th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
SEEKING ALFALFA FOR BRAINS
YOUR LAST POST AGAIN IS RIDICULOUS.. HOUSING ISNT GOING DOWN …ACCORDING TO UR POST… REALLY THATS WHY THERES SO MANY PEOPLE THAT CANT SELL FOR WHAT THEY PAID FOR IT
REALLY WISH U WOULD JUST GO BACK TO BED WIPE THE SAND OUT OF UR EYES.
YOU ARE STILL DREAMING GOOF BALL
August 8th, 2008 at 12:16 am
seekingalfalfa didnt want to acknowledge the
pending sales/ closed sales charts but wants
us to believe two “professors” and another
realtor industry shill - none of which
saw the bubble but will now tell us the future
of the market LMFAO these dweebs dont know
their a** from a hole in the ground period
August 8th, 2008 at 5:56 am
Hey RantWood,
If you’re so upset about what these guys wrote, call the Columbia University Business School, ask for Charles Calomiri and tell him what you think.
August 8th, 2008 at 6:22 am
Mark Zandi, from Moody’s, on CNBC this morning, said that the botom is in for housing prices on Orange County.
August 8th, 2008 at 8:39 am
Sounds like the entire OC is Hot….Mulliganville thank you for the update on the 4-1/2 recent closings out of the 4,200 houses for sale in the OC , I can sleep better now.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Hot? I thought it was talking about temperature hot, not the “hot” RE markets here in OC.
Most markets are like a freezer (very cold), with a couple like a fridge (cold)… so by comparison I guess that makes it “hot”
August 8th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Delmonico—that was for MOM in CDM specifically as she was inquiring about her area…not the entire county. But there were 2800ish county wide for July if you would like to know.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
the is NO such thing as a HOT oc housing market. Wait 24 months.
August 9th, 2008 at 12:06 am
“People are able to pull money out of their homes and put it into their gas tanks. So the overall effects on consumer spending have been small.”
Mark Zandi quote
August 9th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Santa Ana and Fountain Valley are a hottest housing market in Orange County. You can buy house and sell back for huge profits.
August 11th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
2710 Bungalow was a great buy. it has “hidden” premium that you wont able to tell from just data on paper. 2582 in the same community is a great buy if you can knock off 10% from the current asking. 8 Turtle Bay could be a potential hot buy too. i heard the seller is a flipper (at the wrong place and very wrong time)… there are a few potential sweet deals in the CdM area if you are ready.