68 Comments

Provider,
Just indulge me with a few questions since I am new here-
We have established you don’t trust anything negative so do you think overall in OC we a re in a positive or negative market compared to peak? I am talking about today not soon or last month. No stats just your opinion please. There are a lot here that seem to think we are not in a negative state but yet there are bailout bills, highest foclosure rates and more to come.

As for Ladera and Realtytrac try typing in 92694. I know there are about 30 or so MV homes and others but with 324 REO’s in that zip it is mostly Ladrera and even with outdated info and dups there has to be shadow inventory becuase that is real close to MLS numbers. Besides as graghrix pointed out oudated info swings both ways and Ladera is a forclosure mess.

I live in Capo Baech and yes they may be asking the same price but are those houses selling??? I don’t see any sold signs on my way to work. I see some of the signs saying auction!

stashingmycash says:

I don’t like being negative but when a positive comment consists of-

He notes in his latest weekly newsletter that residential construction nationwide was down “a mere 15%” in the second quarter.

This suppose to be positive? That construction is only down 15% instead of 23%??? What type of state is real estate in with comments like that ?? This is suppose to be a ray of sunshine?????

provider says:

We are off quite far from peak. Real estate I watch has stabilized at this level. I don’t know what the future holds for foreclosures in these areas. You are wrong about Ladera, there were 70 bank owned properties. It seems you are counting all delinquencies as an REO, that is wrong. Ladera is also a newer community and would have more stress by definition. I hope that helps. I didn’t ask you to justify your beliefs though, did I? Why did you ask me to do the same?

provider says:

Why is it that unless all the damage is completely undone, a market cannot be stable? Does that make sense to you?

Jimmy2 says:

But, mulli, that is a condo. I don’t think that property was ever worth 1.9M. Why?

Simple. You can get a single family fixer in Irvine Terrace at 1.8M on a quiet street.

And, you can get a single family fixer in the 200 - 300 block CdM in the low 2M. While none are available now, there were 2 that recently went under agreement.

So, the 1.9 M ask on an older condo in the 500 block is out of control. At 1.5M, still out of control.

stashingmycash says:

First of all I didn’t mean any of my comments as a personal attack but wondering what your thoughts are if the stats are flawed? So I wanted to know your beliefs and you can ask me what I think any time.

Go to Realtytrac and type in 92694 and there are 323 REO’s and yes there are other houses besides Ladera in that zip but only about 30 or so. There are 504 pre forclosures and 244 auctions. I don’t know why when you type in the city Ladera Ranch it only shows 70 but a zip code is a better representation of an area than a city name.

I don’t feel all the damage has to be undone completely but they have to be alot less new wounds for it to heal. How can anything heal if you keep opening the same wound and I don’t see any stitches in the forclosure wound any time soon. To many still set to recast. I don’t see stability until the tide of REO’s starts to ebb.

But I am glad we can have good dialague without getting personal and just get to the root of things. Tell me what you think about Realtytracs numbers when you type in the zip.

Tom M says:

Has anyone seen the “Sign People”? I saw on Saturday Night on the corner of Greenfield and Crown Vally in Laguna Niguel.

She was a women in her late 50s holding a sign that said she was homeless, unemployed, and desperate. She dressed the same as anyone else in south OC. This is the 2nd one I’ve seen in the last month.

Mulliganville says:

OK Jimmy…that is a fair and valid point. I think this property moves around this price…we shall see.

Active Buyer says:

It is interesting to note that the “nicer” zips with the highest REO and NODs are the ones with the highest HOA and MR (ladera, RSM, AV, …) - the price of the house has to reflect the taxes and costs of living in the community. Compare similar priced zips ($500 - $700k typical SF) with little to no HOA and MR and the number of REO and NODs are much, much lower.

Once these high HOA + high MR areas get sorted we will be at the complete bottom, but of course many other areas will have already made the turn by that point.

Jimmy2 says:

Mulli, one more point. I am seeing some price drops in less desirable eastern sections of Newport Coast. Even a few in the Port Streets. These are are short sales 300 under the peak. This has been going for a while. So far, just a couple.

bpsqwerty says:

Active Buyer is right… expect depressed prices due to high costs of ownership in these areas. of course the property tax benefit becomes too big if the prices drop too low, so that won’t happen. but expect more of an equilibrium soon.

bpsqwerty says:

CDM listing is funny and completely typical… a 3 bdrm 1900 sq ft condo listed as “3-4 bdrm” “2000 sqft”

ya ok buddy… the people that write this stuff should be taken out back and shot.

hwood says:

MULLIGAN HEAD COMMENT

I will let you in on a little secret. I will not take a listing from an unrealistic seller today. It is pointless. If they think they’re home is worth substantially more than it is and are not open to today’s market pricing, another agent can have it. I will educate them as to what the fair price should be…if they want a little wiggle room, that is fine. But if the true value today is $650,000 and they want to list it for $785,000…they are not listing it with me. It is a waste of their time and mine.

OH MY UR TELLING ME UR SOUGHT AFTER SECRETS OF REAL ESTATE……….I CANT WAIT TO HEAR MY GARBAGE

YOUR STATEMENT”I WILL NOT TAKE A LISTING FROM A UNREALISTIC SELLER TODAY”

I BET U DONT CAUSE NO ONE WILL BUY IT.
.
BUT I BET U FORGOT TO HAVE THAT SAME PROCESS WHEN YOU WERE SELLING ALL THE OVER PRICED HOMES IN THE PAST .. YOU HAD NO PROBLEMS THAN

WHY DO U HAVE AN ISSUE NOW……

U ARE THE BIGGEST HYPOCRITE EVER

GO TELL UR SECRETS TO UR PAST CLIENTS THAT ARE UPSIDE DOWN ON THE HOME U SOLD THEM……LOLL

hwood says:

# Mulliganville Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 9:30 am

No problem hwood: You can have one $100 bill. I will take ten $20 bills. Your one bill is worth more than mine individually head to head. But, who has more money? Please do not apply for the CFO position when you see it.

Put another way:
Agent “A” sells one home at $500,000 = $15,000 in commissions.

Agent “B” sells three homes at $300,000 = $27,000 in commissions.

Now, why is this so tough for you to comprehend? Even rants is nodding along with me here…

ANOTHER WORTHLESS CONCLUSION ON UR PART..

BECAUSE YES PRICES COMING DOWN AS U SAY AND I AGREE.. BUT U R NOT SELLING 3 TIMES AS MANY HOMES AS BEFORE SO UR THEORY IS THROWN OUT AGAIN OH MULLI HEAD

CARE TO DISPUTE HOMES ARENT SELLING LIKE THEY DID IN THE PAST LIKE VOLUME DOWN IN HALF…..

COME ON MULLIGAN HEAD PUT UR SKIRT BACK ON AND MAKE ME A SANDWICH WHILE U SIT IN UR SO BUSY OFFICE OF RE TRANSACTIONS….LOLLLL

hwood says:

# Mulliganville Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 9:55 am

hwood: you are a lost cause little guy. I’m done with you and the cavernous space occupying the RE between your ears.

I FIGURED U COULDNT COME BACK WITH ANY LOGICAL ANSWERS TO WHAT I HAVE REPLIED BACK WITH… BUT I WILL MAKE SURE ITS POSTED ALL OVER FOR ALL TO SEE. SO WE CAN REALLY GET DOWN TO WHO KNOWS RE AND WHO DOESNT ………..LOLLLLL

I JUST WONDER HOW DO U MAKE IT THRU LIFE WITH THE LOGIC U HAVE…………ROFLLLLLLLLLLL

OCTrojan says:

I’m still shocked that people are willing to pay high prices for homes with high HOA/Mello-Roos on top! $100 per month is one thing, but some of these hamlets are charging $300+ for nothing, on top of $800 in Mello-Roos!

provider says:

Stash, thanks for your comments. It IS nice to discuss things civally. I don’t know the boundries of that zip well enough. I do agree with what Realty Trac shows. However, when I plug that zip into Redfin (they have a zip boundry map), I only see a zone running on the north side of Crown Valley from Antonio to (almost) Marguerite and that zone only has 43 active listings. I don’t see most of Ladera (south of Crown Valley) at all. Is that another zip? Regardless, Ladera has excessive foreclosures. How many more will happen is the million dollar question.

Active Buyer says:

$800 MR is cheap if you are looking at RSM - try $1200 - $2000/year in MR and special bonds dpending on exact area - and these are not tax deductions. You can get a newer house with less than $100/month HOA+MR in Trabuco Canyon just down the road.

stashingmycash says:

Yes your right I was ready to put an offer on a place at 425k in Ladera and the taxes and HOA’s came out to about $1,100 a month with $391 of that HOA’s. That is high and when those areas start to stabalize I agree we will see more stability overall. The only question I or anyone else can’t seem to pin point is when? And this is the real heated debate. No one can argue that real estate is not depressed and that it has to turn but we sure get a lot of opionion about timeline.

I am still waiting for those same properties I was looking at to get below 380k. Maybe they won’t but eventually I will have a big enough down that it won’t matter. Or maybe I will buy a 3500 sq ft house in Corona for 350K?? Nah I think the cummute and my wife would kill me! No matter the state of real estate in OC we can all agree we love living here.

provider says:

Mello Roos is a huge thorn for all new communities. What used to look like .5% to 2.0% (as a percentage) will now look like 1%-4%. Fugly. Of course if your house costs half, it won’t sting as much.

stashingmycash says:

This is what my RE agent sent me:

16 Orange Blossom, Ladera Ranch
Taxes, Fees and Sales History
Taxes:
Parcel No.: 931-895-75
Tax
Type
Description/Service Agency Phone No. Tax Rate
(82-374)
Value Base Amount
(Rate x Value)
A1 BASIC LEVY RATE 1.00000 $425,000.00 $4,250.00
A1 METRO WATER D-MWDOC $16.71
A4 Land Only Tax $282.10
*** SPECIAL ASSESSMENT USER FEES***
BA MOSQ,FIRE ANT ASSMT (800)273-5167 $3.08
B3 VECTOR CONTROL CHG (800)273-5167 $0.66
J4 SMWD ID #4 D/S AQD (949)459-6420 $16.70
Q2 MELLO-ROOS Q2 (949)955-1500
$2,141.61
S0 MELLO ROOS S0 (949)955-1500
$955.23
Total Tax: $7,666.09
CLOSE
Taxes will be approximately $639 per month ($7,666.09/year). This includes the Mello
Roos taxes.
Fees:
Monthly HOA Dues: $391 ($216 + $175)

Provider I just looked at the houses in Ladera on Realtytrac’s list and there were only about 30 or so that did not say Ladera Ranch. Not sure if that area is another zip but that 92694 is hurting. Glad we can agree on that. Yes the million dollar question in price, forclosures, interst rates, sales volume is still totally up in the air.

yanni raz says:

How much is your home worth? Well, it all depends where you live.

The real estate market is still shaking. New data suggests that home prices have hit a new record low. In every new study that comes out, homeowners from Miami, to Las Vegas, Phoenix and Los Angeles, have seen their home value go lower every time.
Is that disappointing? Of course it is.
Should we sell? Is not a good time.
Should we stick to it? Yes, if you can.
Have we hit bottom? Nobody knows.

Banks are facing their worst foreclosure crisis.
Don’t take me wrong, it’s good if you are in the market to buy a home for yourself or if you are an investor, but if you are not, and you own a home, most likely the value of your property is down at least 15 %.

Why do banks care if you are loosing your home? By having to sell repossessed homes, banks have to literally slash their prices down. It gets very costly for them, after all, they have to pay property taxes, maintenance costs, and whatever utilities that need to be paid, all of this expenses for a house that it’s just sitting there, vacant, and the bank is getting nothing in return.

The latest study by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 20 cities, revealed the news that for 22 consecutive months home prices dropped. Only from April to May, 2009 the decline was of 0.9 %

stashingmycash says:

Notice the evil in the middle of the total tax?

Trojan949 says:

that is one nice thing about CdM…no mello-roos there. I think there are some bargins at Sailhouse (MacArthur & PCH).

pdu says:

HWOOD,

While you were unloading on Mulli, (probably as a result of his recent comments to you), you missed an opening — a good one.
In the interest of stirring things up a bit I can’t resist pointing it out:)

Mulli chastised you for your “lack of education” and the problems you seem to have with “there” and “their”, for example.

You had a chance:
“MULLIGAN HEAD COMMENT”

“I will let you in on a little secret. I will not take a listing from an unrealistic seller today. It is pointless. If they think they’re home is worth substantially more………”
—
Our resident real estate AND linguistics expert used “they’re” when he should have used “their”.

None of us are perfect but when one belittles another for supposed “ignorance” it might behoove them to be a little more forgiving, or at the very least, a little more careful. :)

provider says:

Flashback to a fire ant bite. I need a valium now.

hwood says:

PDU
THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT

BUT MULLIHEAD HAS SO MUCH WRONG WITH HIM IT TAKES FOREVER TO GO THROUGH IT ALL, BUT THANKS ANYWAYS

hwood says:

# Mulliganville Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 10:24 am

Here are some tips for you omniscient one…go look that up real quick.

“their” possessive

“there” adverb as in a place

“your” possessive

“you’re” you are

Even rants’ 10 year old gets this…if you cannot select the appropriate distinction, I feel sorry for you.

HEY MULLI U MAY WANT TO LOOK AT UR OWN WRITINGS I THINK PDU IN HIS LAST STATEMENT CALLED YOU TO THE CARPET FOR ME..

MR. TEACHER OF THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE AND EDITOR

BUT BOTTOM LINE U STILL HAVE NOT ANSWERED MY REPLIES BACK TO U WITH ANY LOGIC. PLEASE FEEL FREE TO DO.
BUT MAYBE U TO BUSY SELLING RE? …………LOLLLLLLLL

stashingmycash says:

Hey Provider no Valium just burn one it’s almost legal!

Would like CDM or Newport but kids are in school in this area. Trying to keep them close. One in high school other in grade school I would feel bad uprooting them. It’s all about the family. If it is better for the kids I will rent in Capo Beach until they go to college.

pdu says:

# hwood Says:
“………….. BUT THANKS ANYWAYS”
—-

Ummmm, hwood, it should be “ANYWAY” — no “S”
—-
Ohhhh, am I bad:)

provider says:

Is that the evil you meant? They are bad, worse than being bitten by a great white shark. At least the great white gives you the mercy of killng you.

stashingmycash says:

Just the 666 in in total tax number. Ironic! True but funny if shark attacks showed the same % increase as forclosures would we go out in the water? Maybe if the taxes keep going up!

provider says:

Sorry, I got lost. I thought we were taking about fire ants.

hwood says:

PDU ITS EBONIC BLOGGING GET WITH THE BLOGGING CROWD……..LOLLLL

bpsqwerty says:

ha, all about the family… yeah, hope you’re not smoking any of that in front of your kiddies. wouldn’t want to give them any ideas.

what a shock - a Democrat wants to legalize illicit drugs - almost as shocking as the stories on street violence in Santa Ana in the OCR.

stashingmycash says:

Hey BPS do you drink? Or do you think prohibition of alcohol worked as well. By the way who said I smoke pot? I didn’t say either way just told Prov that pot is better than Valium. I have spoken to pharmacists who say pot is much safer then almost any pain killer they prescribe. Are you watching a little to much reefer madness and false propoganda. The only reason pot is tied to hard drugs is becuase it is illegal. The same thing happen to alcohol when it was illegal it got smuggled in with all the other contraband. Anyway wrong blog- Find a pot blog and we can continue this debate, but lets spare all the people here who are RE bloggers. By the way you can say what you want about me but don’t talk about my family. You don’t know me or what I do for my family.

they are down says:

Wow, in San Diego the lower tier priced homes have already fallen 38% from peak, mid priced by 30.1% and high priced by 20.1%. They are at Oct 2003 prices. Orange County followed San Diego on the way up and we sure will follow them on the way down. Look out below!

awgee says:

July 30, 2008 at 1 pm

“No one can argue that real estate is not depressed and that it has to turn but we sure get a lot of opionion about timeline.”

I can argue it. Real Estate is not depressed. It is still way overvalued in Orange County and prices will continue to fall.

stashingmycash says:

July 30, 2008 at 1 pm

I agree awgee I think my sentence was just a little awkward. I think values are overpriced and I am saving my money until it gets to that affordablity for me. Put it another way.

No one can argue that real estate is down in general over the whole of OC and there is plenty of price correction left to happen.

That would have been a better sentence for my opinion.

Must be all the pot I am allegedly smoking making my thoughts crazy

provider says:

“No one can argue that real estate is down in general over the whole of OC and there is plenty of price correction left to happen.”

I argue that every day.

provider says:

Against it, that is.

Troy says:

All this stuff is still way overpriced and it all has a big drop to go.

That condo in CDM that Mulli posted earlier in this thread is a perfect example. The new 1.5 Million price is just as ridiculous as the 1.9 Million price was. When you are up there for a 20 year old condo with dumpy staging, why even bother? Why not just price it at 10 Million and lower it to 8 Million? What’s the point if you are going to be that delusional? Just go for it and revel in your delusion.

When that condo gets back to just a hair over its Y2K selling price of 450 Grand, then we can talk. Until then, the housing implosion continues through this nonexistent spring/summer “bump”.

It’s going to be a long, cold winter.

stashingmycash says:

OK I am not sure my sentences are coming off correctly. Must be the lack of visibility due to the all the pot smoke in here.

Privider you argue that RE is not down in general over the whole of OC? And with all the forclosures and Pre-forclosures waiting in the wings that there is not going to be more price correction??? Tell me that even if the forclosure rate stabilizes we won’t see price correction with just the forclosures we have now. Let alone if they increase in volume. Price is going to fall in most OC zips until we work out the forclosure problem. That is just one factor in a host of many that could cause further price declines.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion but I don’t see it. What makes you think RE is not down. Sales volume, price, new construction??? What is not down?

bloodinthestreets says:

Brick walls are there to stop ‘the other people’ - Pausch

provider says:

Maybe you forgot:

We are off quite far from peak. Real estate I watch has stabilized at this level. I don’t know what the future holds for foreclosures in these areas.

Greg in OC says:

Which areas?

stashingmycash says:

No I didn’t forget but what I am speaking of is OC in general is down and there is no indication that price declines in GENERAL have stabalized. Possibly in certain areas but until the whole of OC has stabalized can we think that the declines as a whole aren’t going to continue. My statement was just a blanket of OC. I could argue that Ladera, Talega and other areas are in severe forclosure trouble but that does not mean the whole of OC is in forclosure trouble. I’m sure you could point to a few zips that are seeming to stabalize and have the stats to prove it but you can’t say becuase a few zips are stable that the whole of OC is stabalizing.

I don’t know what the future holds for forclosures either but I know there are a lot of exotic loans left out there and this leads me to believe that more forclosures are ahead. Not to mention the prime loans or supossed prime loans that are defaulting. Why is Fannie and Freddie in trouble? They don’t do subprime loans. Alt-A or stated income loans. That are supposed to be prime.

Prime should be atleast-
proveable income (W2, or taxes)
2 year job seasoning
Reserves
high fico

Take one out and my opinion is this is no longer a prime loan.

bpsqwerty says:

these

provider says: