Demand for O.C. homes rises for 1st time in 4 weeks
July 28th, 2008, 12:00 am · 84 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner/ocregister.com
The math of Steve Thomas at Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo shows O.C. home demand (number of pending sales over the past month) rose by 61 in the two weeks ended Thursday to 2,743 …
- That came after falling the previous pair of two week periods following the year’s mid-June peak at 3,060 homes going into escrow.
- Current demand is 51% above the same time a year ago and 23% above mid-July of 2006.
- Thomas notes: “”Demand should continue to increase slightly through the rest of the summer and dip slightly in September, the beginning of the Autumn market.”
By the way, inventory of homes to buy rose by 45 to 14,746 homes — 2,850 less than a year ago. (Even though the last two weeks had a rare dip for O.C. supply of distressed homes for sale.) The intersection of demand and inventory creates Thomas’ “market time,” a benchmark showing how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. By this logic …
- It would take 5.38 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace.
- Vs. 5.48 months two weeks; 9.66 months a year ago.
Thomas data by the slice as of Thursday (Note: k=thousand; m=million) …
| Slice | Listings | Pending | Market time (mos.) | 2 wks. ago | 1 yr. ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All O.C. | 14,746 | 2,743 | 5.38 | 5.48 | 9.66 |
| •$0-$500k | 7,151 | 1746 | 4.10 | 4.35 | 9.43 |
| •$500k-$750k | 3,069 | 603 | 5.09 | 4.71 | 9.35 |
| •$750k-$1m | 1,663 | 220 | 7.56 | 7.48 | 8.45 |
| •$1m-$1.5m | 1,243 | 105 | 11.84 | 10.37 | 10.22 |
| •$1.5m-$2m | 687 | 42 | 16.36 | 14.85 | 10.85 |
| •$2m-4m | 795 | 48 | 16.56 | 21.29 | 14.97 |
| •$4m+ | 354 | 4 | 88.50 | 70.60 | 18.93 |
- Feds seize, sell O.C. bank. 1st local failure since ‘94
- O.C. mortgage rates spike
- Nearly 80% of Calif. homeowners lose home after first warning from bank
- Early July’s house-buying burst is best since Sept. ‘05
- O.C. home slump equals $411-a-day loss off June ‘07 peak
- Ailing South County condo project to become senior housing
- Irvine home sales down 39% in June; median price down 15.4%
July 28th, 2008 at 12:47 am
Do the Pending Sales get grouped against the original listing price, or against the actual sale price?
If it’s the former, then these statistics would be distorted in a market where sellers have to accept bigger discounts from their listing prices.
For example, a house is listed at $1.1M and eventually sells for $850K. This makes the Market Time look better for the $750K-$1M segment, and worse for the $1M-$1.5M segment.
This could account for the fact that the Market Time curve is such a different shape from a year ago, with the top end looking dire at present, whereas all the anecdotals seem to indicate that the worst stress is being felt at the bottom.
July 28th, 2008 at 1:44 am
Demand, inflation, and home prices might meet soon. It remains to be seen what the housing bill will do. It may curtail lowering of home prices, but I wonder about the efficacy in this aspect of its goal.
Rents are pretty resilient so far, there is some outflow, but you have many from the IE coming in due to loss of homes or travel costs. People need to live somewhere and OC still has a good share of jobs.
July 28th, 2008 at 6:31 am
wow crisis over dudes,
July 28th, 2008 at 7:21 am
Went on Redfin and did a search for the Anaheim Hills area. Searched houses for sale and houses that have sold in the last 6 months. It amazed me how many houses have sold.
July 28th, 2008 at 7:33 am
I will be more impressed by a few months of increased sales rather than a few days of increased activity.
July 28th, 2008 at 7:39 am
Honestly the stats are very flawed. Look on Realtytrac in Ladera Ranch and see the number of REO’s and then check MLS. They are nearley identical! What this tells me is that there are lots of REO’s not on MLS. I am not sure about the numbers in other areas because I am only watching Ladera, but take a loook at other areas and see for your self. How can there be 300 REO’s in Ladera and 315 houses on MLS? Tell me there are no short sales listed or the rare equity sale. I don’t like being negative and yes it benifits me if houses go down more but I still don’t see this being over yet. When the forclosures go back to normal, all the exotic loans have been refinanced we may see a turn around. Until then how can price stabalize? I would relly like to know becuase I know there are many other factors that can lead to recovery but I don’t see a slight up tick in sales as the end. Good to hear something positive though!
July 28th, 2008 at 7:53 am
RealtyTrac shows 70 REOs, 64 Auction Notices and 120 Pre-foreclosures for Ladera Ranch. They also double-count and have very dated information.
July 28th, 2008 at 8:00 am
………… we’ve already hit bottom…….
………. let’s all move on…….. and dump $200K in cash into a house……
……….. don’t worry about you or your spouse losing your job next year….. the economy is going to be booming in 2009…….
…… your white collar jobs are safe…..
July 28th, 2008 at 8:07 am
wow, last four weeks. Are we looking for any positive news in the housing market in any form, in any timeframe. I the market that bad!!!
Hey, a used house salesman just got a voicemail from a prospect. Demand just picked up from a minute ago. I think we are hitting bottom.
geez
The OC’s Biblical Housing Implosion continues……………………Oh, the prospect was just kidding, wow, activity is now plunging from a minute ago.No Bottom in sight!
July 28th, 2008 at 8:10 am
Steve Thomas shows Ladera with 287 active listings, 114 of which are short sale or foreclosure properties. Realtytrac showed 134 bank owned or near bank owned properties, but they do not reflect recent or pending sales. I don’t see any so-called “shadow” inventory here. Do you?
July 28th, 2008 at 8:12 am
I keep reading how the high end is strong. I wonder why there is a seven year supply of homes for sale above $4 million?
That pushes us out to 2015 to sell the existing high end homes for sale.
July 28th, 2008 at 8:27 am
Boy, Realtrac really stinks. For Ladera, under bank owned they show the same house on Sandy Pond Road twice (same sale amount, a day apart) and under the NOD tab they show 58 Granville twice. There are many more, but these were really obvious.
July 28th, 2008 at 8:52 am
gotta agree with south oc… crisis averted! LOL
July 28th, 2008 at 9:23 am
I think people here have proven multiple times how misguided S’Thomas ‘information’ is. In the recent past, we heard how “pending sales” for a particular time period were so astronomically high, just to see the ACTUAL SALES for this same period fall hugely below previous year sales number. Despite the claims to the contrary from our persistent realtor special-interest mouthpieces on this blog … the information is essentially worthless. Lets be clear: pending sales (particularly those reported from a realtor) don’t mean squat.
This precious OC market ‘was’, ‘is’, and ‘will be’ crashing. At 27% rate of demise, you have to have some serious conflict-of-interest to suggest that buying a house now is in anybody’s best interests (other than the interests of those making money from the deal).
Shame … shame … shame.
July 28th, 2008 at 9:32 am
………… the only thing good about steve thomas’ numbers is that they get provider / thoughtful all hot and bothered……..
……perhaps a poor substitue for her HELOC highs of yester-year……… but an excellent subsitute for super slow motion shots of pat sajak on wheel of fortune…..
July 28th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Yeah, thoughtful seems to all in a tizy over RealtyTrac numbers while happy as peach for Steve Thomas’s numbers (isn’t there a saying never trust a man with two first names?). Hee, oh, btw, there’s another REO up for sale in my neighborhood in AV. Lot’s of activity two. I was out on my sidewalk juggling knives as the realtors brought in prospective buyers…you should have seem the look in the realtors faces! LOL!
July 28th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Stacked pending sales in escrow companies is not indicative of higher demand for homes. It means that lenders are tightening their standards and making it harder to get a loan done.
July 28th, 2008 at 9:56 am
I would like to have Steve provide us with some numbers on the pending loan resets in the next six months! With rates climbing and lending still tightening.
By the way did anyone notice that FHA loans due to the newest bill that just past raised the minimum down from 3% to 3.5%.
Not a big bump, but it will still have its effect.
July 28th, 2008 at 10:07 am
………. samson…….. it absolutely boggles the mind….. but I suspect you are correct…… a measley increase from 3% to 3.5% required will have an impact……
………… if you really want to see where the bottom is going to be in the OC………. see how much a family with a $80K-$100K income, 3.5% down payment, and about $800 in monthly debts can afford……..
………. bump it to $120K income, 3.5% down payment, and $1000 in monthly debts if you want………… the bottom….she ain’t pretty……
July 28th, 2008 at 10:23 am
What a bunch of blowhards! With the exception of June, Thomas’ numbers correlate quite closely with DQ’s month-later closes. It sure looks like July will have a bunch of the June entrants, doesn’t it? Please buy a clue. Especially you, blood. Thomas never showed “astronomically high” pendings. Whatever gets you through the night. And objective? These are not old deals, they are new ones.
Thomas Dates - Thomas escrows - DQ closes - DQ Dates
12-Jul - 2682 - ??? - ???
14-Jun - 3060 - 2697 - EARLY July
22-May - 2658 - 1930 - June
19-Apr - 2374 - 2266 - May
24-Mar - 2083 - 2166 - April
25-Feb - 1820 - 1663 - March
25-Jan - 1219 - 1471 - February
July 28th, 2008 at 10:29 am
There’s an even closer correlation if you compare Thomas to DQ two months out:
12-Jul - 2682 - ??? - ???
14-Jun - 3060 - ??? - ???
22-May - 2658 - 2697 - EARLY July
19-Apr - 2374 - 1930 - June
24-Mar - 2083 - 2266 - Mayl
25-Feb - 1820 - 2166 - April
25-Jan - 1219 - 1663 - March
July 28th, 2008 at 10:31 am
OK, it’s all good, again.
Suddenly, affordability is back. E-Z finance, no-down, low-payment negAM loans are everywhere. All the people will get stupid and buy overpriced declining value homes at much higher payments than rental equivalent, just because.
Maybe I’ll dust off my license, lease a luxo car, get a smiling picture taken 10 years ago plastered on some signs and shiny business cards, and go over to the dark side.
Anyone able to help me reserve a spot at the next Gary Watts Festival?
With an apparent unlimited supply of fools awaiting the chance to buy (if one believes the hype) and so many responding to a dead cat bounce, this is not the time to sit on the sidelines when there are commissions to be made.
—-
On a more serious note _
I understand a lot of properties are being “sold” at the massive auctions we see advertised. Are these included in the “pendings”?
Does anyone have stats on what percentage of homes entering escrow are actually closing?
My guess — the uptick in activity is short lived — those predisposed to buy are jumping now partly because it is peak buying season and there are some properties changing hands at prices that make sense.
However, the vast number of properties listed are still in the wishful-thinking zone price wise. Anyone buying can find a desperate seller and should be able to continue to do so.
There will be more desperate sellers, probably many more than desperate buyers, as the market continues to work through the yet-to-be-desperate OptionArm holders facing resets and finding no affordable alternatives they and their properties can qualify for.
But then what do any of us know? We should have kept quiet, not been so “thoughtless” with our comments, not talked the market down, and followed Gary’s advice.
All of this ridiculous market drop would never have happened and we could all be buying ever-increasing real estate, Escalades, Hummers, ski boats and Harley’s with no-qual HELOCs.
I just hate it when this bad stuff happens and I can’t have what I want when I want it!
July 28th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Mav, do you think the monthly income was supposed to be gross monthly or after taxes?
July 28th, 2008 at 10:44 am
………. i believe the income is gross (before taxes)………
July 28th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Thanks. That silly FHA calculator…it can’t possibly be right
July 28th, 2008 at 11:05 am
People will always buy RE. Interest rates were 18-22% and homes were still bought and sold. If IR get out of control, watch what happens to rents…you think they might uptick a bit?
BTW, my sources tell me that the banks are much more negotiable with their short sellers than they have been in the past.
The lenders perpetuated this debacle and now they are enjoying the bed they prepared by making ridiculous zero doc loans based on a borrower’s “word.”
July 28th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Incomes are actually declining, so how are people ever going to catch up to these prices?
July 28th, 2008 at 11:21 am
Oh… it is nice to have someone provide us with thoughtless information. Anyone check some of Steve’s math in the report? Many of the numbers do not match up.
Foreclosure Radar shows 67 REOs for Ladera, and add in the 57 that have a notice of trustee sale then the total is 124. Of course there are 155 people who forgot to make their mortgage payment too. None of these were double counted, and even if the status of some the homes are not up to date they also miss some that I know are scheduled for the auction. So while they might be making a mistake on one that is no longer in default, they make up for it by missing one that is. And… either way, if you check the foreclosure to housing stock ratio you will see it is worse than Santa Ana or Anaheim. Ladera is a foreclosure nightmare.
July 28th, 2008 at 11:35 am
Like when Angelo Mozilo had the gall to say “nobody saw this coming”, what will be the line regarding the continued slaughter that happens this fall?
Here is how it will play:
“Nobody saw _____ coming. Other than the effects of this unforeseen event, my predictions were basically on target.”
What will it be?
Energy prices (continuing to be high, there should be no surprises)?
The recession (they didn’t see, even though warned about since last fall)?
The (inevitable) Alt-A Collapse
The interest rate climb, (that has been widely anticipated)?
Of course if you’re ‘Thoughtful’ and employed ‘in the biz’, you can just change your blog name … and blather-on authoritatively, encouraging people to lose their hard earned savings by throwing it at a rapidly depreciating asset.
July 28th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Mulli says:
The lenders perpetrated this debacle and now they are enjoying the bed they prepared by making ridiculous zero doc loans based on a borrower’s “word.”
—
Many more contributed to this whole mess - The builders, the newspapers, the financial advisors, the press, the realtors, the appraisers, your friends, the “experts”, and, yes, the lenders…… nearly everyone bought into the concept of real estate being a good “investment” that was in short supply with ever increasing demand continuing to increase in value indefinitely.
The lenders responded with product that made the price irrelevant. The investors in these mortgages saw mortgage backed securities with little risk and good returns backed by real estate that would continue to escalate in value — nearly everyone got caught up in this self perpetuating delusion.
Very few paid attention to the issue of affordability> Value in relation to fundamentals. They bought into the old “It’s different this time”, the trap that never fails to teach those needing the lesson.
Sadly, many won’t learn. The bailout will save some and others will look outside of the part they played and blame others.
So very easy to say, “That lender made me take a mortgage I couldn’t hope to pay.”
So easy for the realtors to blame the lenders after the realtors fed the frenzy with the words of the Gary Watts’ of the world.
The fools listening to the ignorant, all looking to blame another.
July 28th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
BIS–If you want a 4 BR home in my community it is going to cost you $3200-3800 depending upon view and amenities. Homes are going for $300-330 per foot here today. Each community is different. We have a 4 month supply of homes in this community. A buyer’s market psychologically, but a seller’s market statistically. So, let’s call it $3500 for a 4BR home here. That is $42,000 per year lost to rent.
There is more to the equation besides “how much does it cost?” The freedoms to do what you wish…it is your home. You are not reliant upon a landlord…what if they become financially insolvent in this economic climate? You are basing your families livelihood on the fact that your landlord is going to pay HIS bills. Of course, most will. But then again, we have never been here before now have we?
Good credit still gets an 80/10/10. I realize Pac Hills is a move up community by today’s standards. The buyer here has more liquidity than the one heading to the entry level community.
This being said, I still think on the monthly you are ahead rental numbers wise by about $800 per month. This is of course prior to any tax advantage of interest write-offs. So on the monthly, it is a wash here today. The wild-card is your down payment. If you want to own your own home and are thinking long term, you will be ok. If you want to wait, that is ok too. As I have mentioned gazillion times, it is a personal decision. Buy, rent, wait, move now…it is up to you. Just do what is best for your family.
July 28th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
pdu:
“Very few paid attention to the issue of affordability> Value in relation to fundamentals. They bought into the old ‘It’s different this time’, the trap that never fails to teach those needing the lesson.”
And still few or no bullish expert or commentator will admit that affordability relative to incomes is a key factor for a stable RE market. Only realist, or bearish, commentators will dare to discuss it.
July 28th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Mullian,
Your neighborhood, right?
$2995 / 4br - GORGEOUS PACIFIC HILLS HOME WITH 3 CAR GARAGE (MISSION VIEJO)
Reply to: see below
Date: 2008-07-18, 4:39PM PDT
This is a very lovly 2700 sf Mediterranean style home in a beatutiful neigborhood on a cul-de-sac street. Home is in excellent condition with plush carpet, custom window coverings, Italian marble flooring in entry, formal dining room & kitchen. 3 fireplaces located in living room, family room & master bedroom. Master suite has a huge bath with oval tub & large separate shower & large walk-in closet. Dramatic entry overlooks spiral staircase. Large kitchen with 5 gas burner cook-top, double ovens (self-cleaning)& microvave. Large eating area in addition to separate formal dining room. Wet bar in family room. Separate inside laundry room with overhead cabinets & wash tub. Lush tropical landscaping with lots of palms, ficus trees & flowering bushes make this property a nice retreat. Huge covered patio overlooks large grassy area & greenbelt in backyard. Cul-de-sac street. Walk to middle school & world class soccar. Member of Lake Mission Viejo with swimming, boating, fishing, classes, concerts & more. This home has been well cared for & is bright & clean! No pets or smokers please.
July 28th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
pdu: first things first…if the underwriters actually did their job, there would not have been a loan for wall st. to purchase from the borrower…the Realtors would have played the same role, only under tighter lending standards…and prices would have been kept in check…our local economy would be in better shape due to more affordability in the housing sector. Families would have more disposable income.
People will almost always over-borrow. The underwriter is literally the DUI checkpoint before a very sharp, dark curve that lies ahead.
It is like speeding…do you go the speed limit all of the time? Of course not. The police are the check and balance. If they disappear, like the underwriters did, more and more speeding will ensue, and conditions will become more dangerous. Would you say housing was in a DUI state?
The steps:
1. Get prequalled by lender–worthless
2. Look for homes
3. Submit offer
4. Complete loan application
5. LOAN SUBMITTED TO UNDERWRITING–deal killer/maker
6. Loan conditionally approved
7. Conditions met
8. Closing
9. Loan sold on Wall St.–if crazy loan not approved, no loan to buy
The big investors were too greedy. The underwriters were too lax.
Like the Honda Salesman of today, the manufacturer is churning them out big time…the public is demanding their vehicles. So, the salesman (insert Realtor here) is facilitating public demand due to market conditions. They help you complete the transaction do you can have your new car which gets 35mpg. Once gas/oil get in line again (assuming they do), other vehicle types will be in demand once again.
Once the credit crisis gets under control, housing will begin its march back to a healthy, normal market. That will be good for all of us.
July 28th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
—Huge covered patio overlooks large grassy area & greenbelt in backyard.—
$2995 for a reason: let me translate that sentence above: we back to a vegetated green planted hill with