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Here's recent history of the Fed’s policy committee and its Fed Funds rate. Next Fed decision is June 24/25.
Santa Ana ZIPs top late-June’s home-price declines
July 11th, 2008, 7:23 am · 82 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner/ocregister.com
Five of the 11 O.C. ZIP codes with biggest price losses in late June were Santa Ana, according to the latest DataQuick homebuying report. Prices in these communities are likely being dragged down by a surge in sales by distressed sellers, both bankers who’s repossessed homes and owners trying to avoid foreclosure.
Collectively, 153 homes were sold in this ZIP in this period, down 6% from a year ago. Not bad considering countywide sales are off 16.5%. But a sales-weighted average of the six Santa Ana ZIPs price losses shows buyers in these neighborhoods collectively paying 42% less than a year ago. (For a full breakdown of prices and sales by ZIP code, CLICK HERE!)
Here’s how Santa Ana ZIPs fared in the 22 business days ended June 24 for closed sales and median price changes, and their rank for pricing among O.C.’s 83 major ZIPs …
| Rank | Santa Ana ZIP | Price | Vs. ‘07 | Sales | Vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 92701 | $248,000 | -51.8% | 10 | -65.5% |
| 82 | 92707 | $280,000 | -49.5% | 42 | 82.6% |
| 81 | 92703 | $300,000 | -48.1% | 33 | 32.0% |
| 77 | 92704 | $350,000 | -35.2% | 38 | 40.7% |
| 73 | 92705 | $600,000 | -31.8% | 23 | -45.2% |
| 41 | 92706 | $500,000 | -19.4% | 7 | -58.8% |
As for the most recent countywide stats, in the 22 business days ended June 24, the recent trends continue with pricing and sales activity stabilizing at what would be seen as relatively weak levels …
| Slice | Price | Vs. ‘07 | Sales | Vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| House | $550,000 | -24.7% | 1,554 | -7.7% |
| Condo | $367,500 | -18.7% | 505 | -22.4% |
| New | $499,000 | -17.5% | 165 | -50.0% |
| All | $490,500 | -23.4% | 2,224 | -16.5% |
Other community homebuying news …
- Huntington/Seal Beach ranked O.C.’s top housing market
- 24% discounts at Platinum Triangle condo sale
- Football star Carson Palmer lists Laguna home at $2.95 million
- Newport mansion will now cost you $77 million
- Aliso Viejo is top city for property tax cuts
- Tell us ‘Are Long Beach homes best beach value?’
July 11th, 2008 at 7:26 am
Today we learn that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are going to become wards of the state to the tune of 5 Trillion Dollars. This is how non-thoughtout reactionary policies lead to larger messes. The government cannot stop this correction, and further attempts will only lead to larger problems. NO MORE ECONOMIC OR SOCIAL ENGINEERING!
Per DataQuick, Single Family Median Home Price:
2006 ~ Month End
$690,000 = Feb ~ Watts 15% “In The Bag” for SFH
$695,000 = Mar
$705,000 = Apr
$705,000 = May
$700,000 = Jun
$699,000 = Jul ~ Watts revises forecast to 11%
$685,000 = Aug
$680,000 = Sep
$665,000 = Oct
$660,000 = Nov
$665,000 = Dec
2007 ~ Month End
$675,000 = Jan ~ Watts forecast 7% SFH
$675,000 = Feb
$695,000 = Mar
$720,000 = Apr
$695,000 = May
$734,000 = Jun ~ Peak of O.C. Housing Bubble
$718,000 = Jul
$710,000 = Aug
$655,000 = Sep
$650,000 = Oct
$655,000 = Nov
$600,000 = Dec
2008 ~ Weekly ~ Month End
$583,250 = Jan ~ Watts declares “Pent up Demand”
$575.000 = Feb
$570,000 = Mar ~ Thoughtful declares “bottom”
$555,000 = Apr
$537,000 = May
$531,000 = 06/05 ~ Watts apologizes “I Got it Wrong”
$536,500 = 06/11
$549,000 = 06/16
$550,000 = 06/24
Per DataQuick, this loss represents a $184,000 decline in single family home prices from the June 2007 high. And the beat goes on … and on … and on!
July 11th, 2008 at 7:50 am
“As for the countywide stats, recent trends continue with pricing and sales actvity stabilizing at would be seen as relatively weak levels …”
The recession that we are apparently marching into looks to be pretty significant. Up to this point we really haven’t felt the true impact of an actual economic slow down. This 140+ oil is eating into corp profits, I have a feeling these corporations and companies are on the precipice of large layoffs that we have avoided for the most part up to this point. In many ways we are just now entering the beginning phase of the early 90’s downturn with sales volumes well below those worst levels.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:06 am
I have a question.
Why do we bailout Bear Stearns but not Fannie or Freddie.
Please don’t get me wrong. I don’t think either should’ve been bailed out. And I was a shareholder in Bear Stearns (but not in Lehman, thank goodness!).
NO BAILOUT!!!
Think about it. There was a post on a previous blog that cited 29% of workouts ended up in foreclosure anyway. Let’s call in 3 in 10.
So banks turnover all the 10 to Fannie and Freddie, so that Fannie and Freddie have that 29% foreclosure rate? Right. No way.
The banks will comb through their portfolios and only turnover the 3 in the 10 that stink.
So now what is the foreclosure rate on the portfolio the Govt owns? It will be closer to 80%-90%.
This is a good deal for us taxpayers, right?
That’s why I figure banks are dragging their feet. They know they are about to get a huge boost in their equity portfolios gratis of you and me and all of us taxpayers.
NO BAILOUT!!!
July 11th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Why is anyone surprised about Santa Ana leading the pack in price declines? Its a crappy city to begin with, and no sane person would be paying high prices to live there!
July 11th, 2008 at 8:31 am
Well, it’s a good thing that the worse of the credit crisis is behind us.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:33 am
….. i’m so glad that the psychological bottom and credit crunch are history…..
July 11th, 2008 at 8:34 am
It is now clear that the propaganda from Steve Thomas about a turn up in the housing market was in fact propaganda. It is also now clear that the spring bounce is very weak.
Makes you wonder what things will look like by the fall after the spring bounce.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:35 am
WFG-
Good one.
I guess the permabulls have run to hide until earnings announcement season is over.
BTW, I don’t have time now, but this evening I will post the seasonality numbers for the median running from 2005-2008 for Apr-Sep. This will show how the median rises and falls during this period.
You’ve got to know how the bulls are going to spin the above chart.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Spin? Like spinning the 95% of on-time mortgages into a 90% foreclosure rate?
July 11th, 2008 at 8:47 am
…….. foreclosure / default rate is crippling Fannie and Freddie…………
………. Bear Sterns bailout coming soon………
………… for the home debtors………… a soup line bail out….
July 11th, 2008 at 8:54 am
belated edit: *worse* should be *worst*.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:22 am
who cares what the ‘worst’ is, they’re all going down.
550k is definitely the last gasp, last “peak” we’ll see anytime soon. sell now or forever hold your peace.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:48 am
I wonder what it’s like trying to get a mortgage today? My, My, the asshat factory is closing shop.
Cash will soon be KING AGAIN!
July 11th, 2008 at 9:56 am
….. I wonder if Steve Thomas will take into account a global banking collapse in his July pendings…………..
July 11th, 2008 at 10:02 am
A lil birdie said short LEN lennar home builder group maybe going bankrupt. short it i did yesterday
July 11th, 2008 at 10:06 am
lennar is going bk. so is shea…
July 11th, 2008 at 10:09 am
Fannie Mae was created as part of FDRs’ New Deal in 1938 as a Government controlled agency. It didn’t become private until 1968 under Johnson. So why is everybody sqwaking? Fannie and Freddie are just reverting to their original status as a Federally operated lending insititution.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:28 am
No comment, just an oldie (well, from April) quote:
“# Jimmy Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
One more point. If the housing issue was as big as the media plays it, then the banking system would be collapsing, and the stock market would be crashing. Not the case. Either the stock market is wrong, or the media and the bubble people are suffering a severe case of “housing crash hysteria” being pumped with deceptive statistics. I think stock market investors understand hysteria and bet against it.
“
July 11th, 2008 at 10:34 am
where are you thoughtful? are you a coward?
July 11th, 2008 at 10:38 am
where are Sighburdud, Mulliganville, Crystal Balls, Steve Thomas, Gary Watts?
July 11th, 2008 at 10:39 am
WAY TO GO NEW2OC
JUST ANOTHER PRIME EXAMPLE OF SOME OF THE DUMBEST REMARKS SAID BY THAT CLOWN AND ALL THE OTHER ALIASES JIMMY USES
July 11th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Bubble,
I am no Bush friend but what do you want him to say/do. I would rather him talk about that than bailouts.
Gas prices are effecting everyday lives of average citizens (mine included). I don’t drive a big suv either (camry 4 cy and corrola). We should have been drilling for oil years ago in the artic wastland and off shore.The dems arguments against have always been it will take years to produce oil. Thats great thinking. Thats like me saying that going to school and the benifits from it will take years to acheive so why bother. If they would have drilled orginally we would have had oil coming out of those areas already for years.
Damn envirormentalists have screwed up food prices with the ethenal crap and hurt power by blocking nuclear all these years. Thank you envirormental hippies. You have helped out a lot.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:42 am
I’m, er I mean, we’re all here.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:47 am
I hear they’ve started drilling in the Bakken formation in North/South Dakota. That’s possibly 400 billion barrels and there is another 400 billion barrels locked up in tar sands in the Four Corners area of the western US. Canadian Oil Sands is already importing 400,000 barrels of oil a year.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:50 am
“His answer is DRILL, DRILL, DRILL
God help us!!!”
I think you mean, thank God. alternative fuels are great, and I’m all for every form of this. but without increasing the supply in the long term we’re all doomed to pay $6 gas prices (and therefore a lot of people won’t even be able to afford to drive to work, let alone anywhere else) until all the alternatives get here, because even though we’ve reduced gasoline usage here in the U.S., China and India are going off the chart with their sudden exponential imports with no additional global production.
plus, I’d rather be paying Chevron or Mobil than the Saudis. even if it’s a fraction of a percentage difference…poneeboy nailed it
July 11th, 2008 at 10:56 am
werty:
wait until you see $7 gas coming to a station near you.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:57 am
One idea that would bring both dems and repubs together is this; why not make it cheap, with incentives, to put solar panels on top of commerical buildaing flat roofs. Think of all the wasted space that is there that could be used for this. The repubs woud be happy because it would benifit the businesses in the long run with cheaper electric bills and not to much up front cost. Dems would be happy because it would be envrormentaly friendly. Heck you could make the dems even more happy by making it a regulation for all new contruction.
What do you people think?
July 11th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Not only could you put photovoltaic cells on roofs of commercial buildings but you could use large cells as siding on some of the large towers that have a side that faces the sun all day.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:08 am
bpsqwerty Says: “I think you mean, thank God. alternative fuels are great, and I’m all for every form of this. but without increasing the supply in the long term we’re all doomed to pay $6 gas prices”
I traveled to Norway last year. They pay U$S 9 per gallon and their economy is doing great, thank you very much. By the way, Norway is one of the largest exporter of oil but they still pay $9. Why? The tax the hell out of it.
Is that good? Yes, because it encourages conservation and using energy more efficiently.
Doesn’t it bother you guys that we have ruined our coastline with oil wells, drills, and power plants? Do you want more of that so you can keep driving your big SUVs?
I guess you guys have lived in this polluted environment for so long that you are starting to enjoy pollution.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Lee,
How much is that cash worth? Better not be in dollars.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:20 am
NationalBubble.com said:
“it encourages conservation and using energy more efficiently. Doesn’t it bother you guys that we have ruined our coastline with oil wells, drills, and power plants? Do you want more of that so you can keep driving your big SUVs?
I guess you guys have lived in this polluted environment for so long that you are starting to enjoy pollution.”
I definitely think that the American lifestyle will become more Europeanized. OC will see a better public transit system. High prices will force Americans to more frugal when consuming food, energy, and overall material goods. In the end, no one escapes the laws of economics.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:21 am
………….. you can pump as much crude oil out of the ground as you want……….
………. it would never change global demand or refinery capacity……….. or the total supply of crude oil left in the ground………
……… more faux news BS………. to cover up the mess we are in……… and benefit big oil……….
July 11th, 2008 at 11:25 am
This blog is fast becoming six or seven bears “debating” over just how miserable things are in the U.S. You have literally driven out anyone who dares utter a contrary word with personal insults. Indeed, Rants doesn’t appear to have anything at all to say unless she is describing everyone who disagrees as a moron or far worse. Congrats on terminating anything resembling a real discussion.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Good old Norway
Although Norwegians have no intention of dismantling their social net, they are becoming increasingly irritated at its red tape. Says Ragnhild Braathen, a Telemark housewife: “The regular citizen struggles against a wall of bureaucracy. People have waited 20 years before receiving their disability pensions. I know a woman who applied for ’single provider assistance.’ She is still waiting for an answer and her ‘child’ is now 35 years old.” Complains Kjell Lorentsen, a schoolmaster in northern Norway: “Responsibility for any decision seems to dissolve into powder.”
Norwegian economists fear that the state’s generosity may be adversely affecting the country’s economy. Norway’s production costs are already the globe’s highest and in large part are responsible for the country’s more than $5 billion trade deficit last year.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Bubble,
Don’t drive an suv here. I am in the wroking poor here in OC (although when i tell people who much i make in other parts of the country they are amazed at how little that gets you out here). I am spending roughly $2,000 more in gas per year then I did 2-3 years ago. This does affect my everyday life. Btw one car gets 22mpg and the other mpg and my commute is around 24 miles round trip. So I am not a gas guzzler or so commute an extreme distance yet the price of gas has affected my family a lot.
I grew up here and don’t want to move, so that is why i put up with the unaffordability in the OC, but the gas prices are pushing beyond limits. And yes the gas prices makes everything I buy more expensive.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:37 am
……….. if you want to decrease the price of gas……….
…….. tell the chinese to go back to the bicycle……
……. tell them to stop moving towards automobiles and airplanes……… tell them to stop modernizing……..
………. i wish you luck in your efforts……… you’ll need it……
………. the alternative is to tell the US government to increase the fed rate into the double digits…….
………. i am OK with either solution……
July 11th, 2008 at 11:39 am
Crystal Balls Says: “You have literally driven out anyone who dares utter a contrary word with personal insults.”
Well, it looks we haven’t driven YOU out of this blog yet because you keep coming back for more punishment.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:46 am
poneeboy53,
You seem like a good decent person. I suffer high gas prices as well.
I live in Newport Beach but work in LA. I commute 42 miles each way and I’m happy that gas prices are going up. This will force the creation of a decent public transportation system here in SoCal and the implementation of alternative sources of energy. The process is going to be painful for a few years but at the end, you’ll be happy with a cleaner environment.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:47 am
mav,
the fed needs to raise the fed rate now despite the effect is would have on the housing market and economy in the short term. This is what Bush should have been talking about that and that fact of overspending by our government (including his dumb war that is waisting billions) that is devauling the dollar which is hurting this country globally.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Obi Ben Barnake just opened the discount window to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Dow went from being down over 200 points to being down only 25 points in minutes. Some short players got their hand slammed in the door on that one.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Fed is almost out of cash, the Dow is back down around 150 points, no one believes Ben anymore…you and I will pay to bail out Fannie and Freddie
July 11th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Straight from Fox News:
If we take on Freddy and Fannie, we will DOUBLE the national debt. could you imagine that?!
July 11th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Fannie and Freddie combined guaranty $5 Trillion in debt backed by around $7 Trillion in collateral. The national debt is just under $10 Trillion. Nintety-five percent of mortgages are fine. The lack of basic understanding on this forum is staggering.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
“The lack of basic understanding on this forum is staggering.”
That is an expression that only our friend Thoughtful would use.
Welcome back to the forum Thoughtful!!!
July 11th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
I’d try distraction too if I were caught that way. Did you get any work done today?
July 11th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
SeekingAlfalfa Says:
July 11th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Obi Ben Barnake just opened the discount window to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Dow went from being down over 200 points to being down only 25 points in minutes. Some short players got their hand slammed in the door on that one.
Oops… Looks like that short covering rally was short lived. Hope you didn’t think that was the bottom. More like the bears were still hungry for some bulls after lunch. And, there is a statement out from the Fed stating that there was no official discussion with the GSEs about the discount window. Hogs are getting slaughtered.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Fannie and Freddie combined guaranty $5 Trillion in debt backed by around
$7 Trillion$4 trillion in collateral at mark to market prices.The amount of ignorance of the secondary market is staggering.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Bubbie, you continue to show you have no idea how trading in the market works and I don’t have the time or the inclination to explain it to you. You’re a gas bag nitwit and pretty much a waste of space. And by the way shove yer graphs.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
I am speaking of real estate, not bonds. Last I checked, the loans were not made at 150% LTV.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Graphix you’re a son of a gas bag. Nobody said anything about a bottom you numnutted a hole. Shorts an longs battle it out all day it’s begining to look like day trading has reared it’s ugly head again.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Provider,
Ignore Bubbie and grafprx. I’m pretty sure they are conjoined twins. I thinks they share a testi@le.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Provider Says:
July 11th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
I am speaking of real estate, not bonds. Last I checked, the loans were not made at 150% LTV.
Like I said, the amount of ignorance of the secondary market of the collateral of Phony and Fraudy is truly staggering.
And, SeekingWeed, it looks like the bears one that battle today, and all year long. Ignore me at your own peril. Do you know how much money I have made the last few days playing the ultra short ETFs? Yeah, go buy house sucker.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
# SeekingAlfalfa Says: “You’re a gas bag nitwit and pretty much a waste of space. And by the way shove yer graphs.”
Oops, somebody is having a bad day today.
Well, it’s not hard to understand why.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
The Bear Stearns bailout occurred over a weekend back in March. I wonder what will be cooked up this weekend to try and save Freddie and Fannie.
It’s already 5:00 o’clock back East, and you know the cell phones and blackberries are being used at a fever pitch right now by Bernanke, Paulson, and their lieutenants. I hope none of them thought they could get away to the beach house this weekend.
This should be fascinating to watch!
July 11th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
……… i can’t wait for the bail out of Fannie and Freddie………………. it’s going to be a swell time………….
……….. the US dollar will be destroyed further………… everything with global demand will get more expensive……….. credit is going to get tighter…… and jobs will be lost……………
………… i guess it’s better than a systematic collapse of our banking system………
July 11th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
just a touch of narciccistic personality disorder there graprix
July 11th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Bubbie have you ever met Jack? Cause I don’t think you know him very well.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
I just caught the declines in the Lansner graph for Ladera Ranch, former poster child for the “OC Lifestyle”. My Mom lived there in ‘02 to ‘05 when she first moved back to SoCal, and I have a coworker that lives there. It’s a hilarious place.
Ladera Ranch
Sales Volume -52% From June ‘07
Prices -30% From June ‘07
Yikes! And that’s the spring bounce for Ladera? That’s gotta hurt.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Still a diversion. Even if the collateral was valued at $4 Trillion against $5 Trillion in debt (which it’s not) only a small fraction of those loans would ever default. It’s a problem, to be sure, but the rest is hyperbole (as usual).